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At 2-11, dismal Jets in mix for No. 1 draft pick


Ken Schroy

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At 2-11, dismal Jets in mix for No. 1 draft pick (Dennis Waszak)

Associated Press

December 8, 2014

http://pro32.ap.org/article/2-11-dismal-jets-mix-no-1-draft-pick

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) — The New York Jets have a good chance of being No. 1 — in the NFL draft.

At 2-11, they're in the mix with Tennessee, Oakland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville for the dubious distinction of having the NFL's worst record.

So, with three games left, the race is on. Next Sunday could play a big part in deciding things with the Jets playing the Titans in Tennessee. And for some fans, they might prefer the Jets continue to lose to secure the best draft spot.

"I know where our fans are coming from," coach Rex Ryan said Monday. "Absolutely, I get that. That doesn't mean that we're going to approach this game any different — because we're going to try to win the game."

So fans hoping to see perhaps Oregon's Marcus Mariota or Florida State's Jameis Winston in green and white next season might have to temper those wishes for the time being.

"If there was a Peyton Manning out there or whoever out there, a Walter Payton, then I'd say you throw it," Ryan joked. "No, I'm just kidding. We're not (tanking). We're trying to win the game." According to the sports analytics site numberFire.com, the Jets have an 11.82 percent of securing the top pick, ranking them fifth behind the Titans (17.02), Buccaneers (17.58), Raiders (18.72) and Jaguars (33.84).

"Using our internal efficiency metrics, we calculate each team's chances of winning every remaining game on its schedule," said Zach Kempner, the site's communications director. "Then we simulate the NFL season thousands of times to determine the probability that each team will have the worst record in the NFL."

The projections also include the usual tiebreakers such as strength of schedule, strength of victory and conference winning percentage. After the game against Tennessee, the Jets finish with New England (10-3) and Miami (7-6).

Since the modern draft era began in 1970, the Jets have picked among the top five just 10 times. They have had the No. 1 overall pick only once: in 1996, when they took wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson. New York has had the second selection twice (Johnny Lam Jones, 1980; and Blair Thomas, 1990) and the No. 3 pick once: Freeman McNeil (1981).

The Jets have had five No. 4 overall picks, including Marvin Powell (1977), Chris Ward (1978), Marvin Jones (1993), Dewayne Robertson (2003) and D'Brickashaw Ferguson (2006). They traded up in the 2009 draft to take Mark Sanchez with the No. 5 selection.

The big question, though, is who will be doing the picking when the next draft begins in April with the futures of Ryan and general manager John Idzik uncertain beyond Week 17.

Owner Woody Johnson has some big decisions to make with the Jets missing out on the postseason for the fourth straight season — the longest drought since he took over the team in 2000. Many fans and media already assume Ryan will be gone after the regular-season finale at Miami on Dec. 28.

Ryan took full blame for New York's 30-24 overtime loss at Minnesota on Sunday, and praised Johnson for his commitment to putting together a winning team. In some ways, it sounded like a concession speech from a coach who knows he's on his way out after six seasons.

"I'm not conceding anything," Ryan said Monday. "I'm not going anywhere. I know I've got three weeks and here we come. That hadn't been told to me — at least I know I think I have three weeks here, and here we go."

Idzik is in his second season as GM, but has been widely criticized for his personnel decisions since he has been with the Jets, whether it has been failed free-agent signings, subpar draft selections or not being aggressive enough in free agency to provide adequate quality roster depth.

Fans have started billboard and website campaigns urging Johnson to fire Idzik, despite a short stint on the job. Some have also aimed their blame at Johnson, something Ryan wholeheartedly disagrees with.

"I just really wanted the fans to know that, hey guys, this is your owner," Ryan said. "You should be happy that this is your owner. You can do a heck of a lot worse than having Woody Johnson as your owner, I promise you. You've got a guy that's 100 percent committed in this organization. He wants to win."

 

NOTES: WR Percy Harvin has a low ankle sprain and is in a boot, putting his availability vs. the Titans in doubt. "It probably doesn't look that great," Ryan said, "but we'll see as it progresses." ... S Antonio Allen has a broken hand, but isn't expected to be sidelined. ... Ryan is encouraged about the chances of DE Muhammad Wilkerson (turf toe) and TE Jace Amaro (concussion) for Sunday's game. The coach said "the arrow seems to be pointing up" on Amaro, who is going through the NFL's protocol for head injuries. Wilkerson is being fitted for a special shoe that could allow him to practice this week.

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You can almost see the media jackals dancing with early Christmas joy and gladness as they cheerfully report on Jet dismalness and eagerly await with pleasure the sight of good, hardworking people getting fired right before the holiday.

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What do you root for, Jets fans . . . three wins or three losses?

Newsday

December 8, 2014

http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/bob-glauber/what-do-you-root-for-jets-fans-three-wins-or-three-losses-1.9694672

 

It is anathema for a football coach or player to think about anything other than beating the next opponent, a mentality that courses through every NFL locker room no matter the record or the next foe. To think otherwise is unacceptable, even if you're 2-11 and going nowhere.

"We've got three games left and every game's precious," Jets coach Rex Ryan said after Sunday's overtime loss to the Vikings. "But our guys are competitive and we want to win and our guys will do whatever it takes to do that."

But in a very tangible way, it actually is in the Jets' long-term interest to lose their final three games and hope to finish with the NFL's worst record.

With no hope of finishing any better than 5-11, the more palatable alternative is to lose out and assure themselves of the first overall draft pick in 2015. With Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, the presumptive Heisman Trophy winner, considered a lock to be the top quarterback taken in the draft, the Jets finally could land a franchise quarterback to lead them out of their current mess, which Geno Smith doesn't seem capable of doing.

Just as the 2011 Colts collapsed without injured quarterback Peyton Manning and wound up with Andrew Luck to lead them into another generation of potential Super Bowl greatness, the Jets are in the race for that coveted No. 1 slot. But the only way to guarantee getting it is if they finish with fewer wins than everyone else. If there's a tie for the worst record, the first pick goes to the team with the weakest strength of schedule.

Four other teams -- the Bucs, Titans, Jaguars and Raiders -- also are 2-11, and if the draft were held today, the Jets would have the fourth pick. In order, it would be the Bucs, Titans, Jaguars, Jets and Raiders.

Of course, this could change after the final three games. And in a sort of twisted way, the Jets hold some of their fate in their own hands with Sunday's game at Tennessee. The winner might be the loser, at least when it comes to the draft order. A win by the Jets would get them that much further away from the first pick and keep the Titans in prime position.

Of the five 2-11 teams, three are in the market for a franchise quarterback: Tampa Bay, Tennessee and the Jets. The Jaguars spent the third overall pick on Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles last year and appear committed to him for the long haul. The Raiders used a second-round pick on Derek Carr, and his improvement throughout the season likely means they are committed to him. The one asterisk is that there will be a new head coach in Oakland, and that could lead to a change in thinking if they're in position to draft Mariota or Florida State's Jameis Winston, the other blue-chip quarterback expected to be available in April.

The Bucs, Titans and Jets are in the market for a player of Mariota's caliber. And although Winston's off-field issues make him more of a risk, there's no denying the 2013 Heisman winner's talent, or that he has never lost a college football game. Considering the desperation NFL teams have shown in securing a franchise quarterback in recent years, there's a good chance he will be a top five pick.

The remaining schedules of the teams in line for the No. 1 pick vary in degree of difficulty. After the Titans, the Jets are home against the Patriots and finish the season at Miami. The Bucs are at Carolina and home against the Packers and Saints. After the Jets, the Titans are at Jacksonville and home against the Colts. The Jaguars are at Baltimore, home against the Titans, and at Houston. The Raiders are at Kansas City, home against the Bills, and at Denver.

The Redskins are 3-10 going into Sunday against the Giants, but in all likelihood, it will be one of the 2-11 teams that winds up with the top pick.

So Jets fans will be understandably torn about their allegiances down the stretch. Do you root for your team to win and salvage some measure of pride from a lost season? Or do you want the Jets to lose out and have a shot at a potential savior on draft day?

"I know where our fans are coming from. If there was a Peyton Manning out there, a Walter Payton, I'm not saying you'd throw it,'' Ryan said with a smattering of sarcasm. "No, I'm just kidding. We're trying to win the game.''

Ryan is all in for the next three weeks, but many fans are sure to have mixed feelings, considering the potential benefits of three straight losses and a shot at Mariota.

Tough choices for an even tougher season.

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This team has an edge in the Marcus Mariota Sweepstakes (Steve Serby)

New York Post

December 8, 2014

http://nypost.com/2014/12/08/this-team-has-an-edge-in-the-marcus-mariota-sweepstakes/

 

There is still plenty of bad football to be played, but Lovie Smith and the Bucs are now on pace to be the Marcus Mariota Sweepstakes winners.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell — as if he didn’t have enough to worry about — is once again in Big Brother mode watching for any signs of impropriety — tanking — that would impugn the integrity of the league. The NFL, unlike the NBA, has no weighted lottery as a check against any "Suck For A Duck" mischief down the stretch.

The Bucs, who are in dire need of a franchise quarterback, currently own the first overall pick of the 2015 NFL draft, followed by the Titans (2), Jaguars (3), Jets (4) and Raiders (5). Mariota is the no-brainer. The Titans, who cannot go forward with Zach Mettenberger or Jake Locker, will be hosting the Jets Sunday in a game that will be dripping with intrigue. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt may have no choice but to roll the dice for next season on Jameis Winston — and check his considerable baggage at the door. Rex Ryan, who won’t be around to coach the next Jets franchise quarterback, but wants to coach someone else’s franchise quarterback, will be standing on top of the Empire State Building defending his honor and will to win, and his team’s fight Sunday against the Vikings should douse any suspicions about an organization that harbors different agendas at the top. The Jets and Titans, of course, don’t exactly have to be bad on purpose to be bad. The Bucs will be at Carolina in a game the Panthers need to win to remain alive for the division title, then host the Packers (loss) and finish with the Saints, who will need the game in their NFC South battle with the Panthers. The Titans are at the Jaguars and home to the Colts — who may want to be resting some regulars for the postseason.

The Jaguars, who are happy with Blake Bortles, are at the Ravens, home to the Titans and at the Texans. The Jets finish at home against the Patriots, who are locked in a death struggle for the AFC top seed with the Broncos, and at the Dolphins, who may need the game for the playoffs. And would fight to the end to prevent the Jets from the opportunity to draft their next franchise quarterback. The Raiders are at the Chiefs, home to the Bills and at the Broncos. But they don’t need a new franchise quarterback – unless the next head coach (cough, Jim Harbaugh, cough) for some reason doesn’t like Derek Carr. If the Falcons somehow upset the Packers on Monday night, the strength of schedule for the Buccaneers and Titans could lead to a coin toss for the No. 1 pick at the NFL Scouting Combine.

 

Here’s how it looks right now:

 

1. Buccaneers: 2-11 (.488 SOS)

2. Titans: 2-11 (.490 SOS)

3. Jaguars: 2-11 (.522 SOS)

4. Jets: 2-11 (.549 SOS)

5. Raiders: 2-11 (.590 SOS)

 

NFL executives dismissed any possibility of treachery as recently as three years ago when "Suck For Luck" became the rallying cry of fans lusting for Andrew Luck. Coaches coach to win and players play to win, and all that. But could a general manager politely ask his head coach to, uh, take a longer look at a younger player at a key position? Could an opposing team rest a key starter or two or three with one eye on the playoffs and another on a rival’s future?

Losing Isn’t Everything, It’s The Only Thing, sometimes.

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With Cam Newton out this coming week, perhaps we could see the Bucs beat the Panthers. We have to hope that going back to Locker gives the Titans an edge against us, I'm concerned about how bad their defense is. We've got to find a way to lose this game. I think the Jags will win another game personally, and don't need Mariotta anyway.

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With Cam Newton out this coming week, perhaps we could see the Bucs beat the Panthers. We have to hope that going back to Locker gives the Titans an edge against us, I'm concerned about how bad their defense is. We've got to find a way to lose this game. I think the Jags will win another game personally, and don't need Mariotta anyway.

Jets lose to TEN and then TEN loses to JAX next week leaves the Jets at #2.... All TB needs to win a football game. This week is probably the only week it's feasible considering they play the Packers and Saints after Carolina.

 

If the Jets lose this week and TB wins on Sunday the Jets are legitimate threats for the #1 pick

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Jets lose to TEN and then TEN loses to JAX next week leaves the Jets at #2.... All TB needs to win a football game. This week is probably the only week it's feasible considering they play the Packers and Saints after Carolina.

 

If the Jets lose this week and TB wins on Sunday the Jets are legitimate threats for the #1 pick

 

Tampa can beat the Saints too, that team is a mess. 

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You can almost see the media jackals dancing with early Christmas joy and gladness as they cheerfully report on Jet dismalness and eagerly await with pleasure the sight of good, hardworking people getting fired right before the holiday.

Because when Rex Ryan is fired, he won't be able to afford Christmas this year?

Please.

Save your lamentations for the real folks in need this winter. Rex will be just fine cashing his $5 million dollar ESPN TV Windbag Check next year.

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Should have beaten the goddamned Bengals. Stupid 12th man on the field that wasn't even part of the play cost them a completion that had them in field goal range to win it. Lovie may have fallen ass backward into the top pick with that one.

It's frustrating, but I'd hardly call it falling ass backwards. Lovie's teams do sh*t like that every week.

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