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The Definitive Percy Assessment....


32EBoozer

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http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/2/6/7989985/percy-harvin-2014-and-beyond
 

One of the first big decisions Mike Maccagnan will have to make as Jets general manager is Percy Harvin's status. Cimini reported the Jets have until March 19. If the Jets retain him, he will cost $10.5 million against the cap, and the team will have to send its fourth round pick to Seattle. If the Jets do not retain him, Harvin will cost zero against the cap, and the team will have to send its sixth round pick to Seattle.

Would he be worth it? Is Harvin worth $10.5 million? The answer is probably not.

That kind of money is rare air at the wide receiver position. Only seven receivers are currently slated to make more in 2015. Harvin is a useful player, but he is not one of the ten best receivers in the league.

His 460 yards from scrimmage is a good number. He certainly provided an upgrade over what the Jets were running out there before him. That kind of production is not worth over $10 million, though. It is also relatively typical of the type of production Harvin provides. Despite his star power, he only has a single season with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage.

Percy is a unique player. His uniqueness is that he has carved out an above average career as a wide receiver due almost entirely to his speed and natural athletic ability. He has a gift for making big plays with the ball. In a league where everybody is fast and athletic, simply beating tacklers is not easy, but he does that. Harvin lacks many traditional wide receiver skills. He is not a crisp route runner at all. He doesn't win with size or physicality. For all of his athletic prowess, he lacks deep speed and is not particularly adept at winning contested balls.

Since 2012, 97 of his 114 receptions (85%) have been caught within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. You dump the ball to Percy and let him make a play. He isn't beating coverage. He isn't outfighting people for the ball. He is not at all a deep threat. Percy has a grand total of 4 catches that traveled over 20 yards in the air since that 2012 season.

This isn't to say Harvin is ineffective, but it shows his limits. Let's compare apples to apples, though. A big play is a big play whether a receiver catches the ball at the line of scrimmage and breaks a 20 yard run or catches a ball thrown 20 yards down the field. Is Percy one of the top playmakers in football?

Harvin gets a number of carries so let's count his big runs as big receptions. Let's leave out 2013 when he was hurt most of the year.





Year                       20+ yard receptions and runs                              Number of players in the NFL with more 20+ yard receptions
2009......................................14                                                                                                        19
2010 .....................................14                                                                                                        18
2011 .....................................19                                                                                                          8
2012....................................... 9                                                                                                        55
2014 .......................................7                                                                                                        73



People talk about Harvin's unique skillset and his ability as a playmaker. Unique doesn't necessarily mean better, though. I hear people say things like, "top five playmaker," to describe Harvin, but even at his best he really wasn't. He was a pretty good one, not the best in the league. It is also worth noting there has been a decline in his production over the last few seasons.

It comes down to Harvin's limitations. This isn't to say he is a bad player, but the things he doesn't bring to the table limit his effectiveness. There are a number of receivers who can be explosive running after a catch near the line who can also beat defenders on deep passes.

I think Percy makes an offense better, but the effect can be easily overstated. Just look at the Jets. This year they played eight games with him and eight without him. For all of the talk about Harvin having a dynamic effect on the offense and opening things up for others, the Jets scored 158 points in the games without him against 125 points in the games with him.

This goes back to what he can't do. Can Harvin break a big play? Yes. Does the defense always have to keep an eye on him? Yes. Can I fake a sweep or a screen to him, get the defense moving in the wrong direction, and create an opening on the other side of the field? Yes.

Does facing him radically alter the way a defense approaches the game? Not to a large extent. A Dez Bryant impacts a play on every single route he runs. Even if he isn't getting the ball, the defense has to dedicate extra resources to stopping him. Percy's limitations running conventional routes does a lot to decrease that effect. He needs the ball in his hands outside the normal flow of the offense to make an impact. You have to forcefeed him the football.

Again, this does not make him useless. He still is a weapon and can be a valuable part of an offensive attack. We come back to the price, though. Money and resources actually are things.

Harvin probably provides around $6 to $7 million of value. You might say it's no big deal to overpay him. Here's the thing. What if the Jets could use that $10.5 million to get $10.5 million of value? They wouldn't necessarily need somebody to replicate Harvin's role. They could upgrade in other areas. Maybe they could get a pair of guards and a back like C.J. Spiller. The guards would mean there would be less of a need for a top receiver because the quarterback would have more time to throw, and the receivers on the team would have extra time to get open. The back could lessen the need to throw to a guy like Harvin. Maybe they could use it to rebuild the secondary and require the offense to produce less points. There are endless combinations. I think it is safe to say the money could be better spent.

What if Harvin is willing to restructure to around $6 million. The problem is with the pick. I can get another player or players to provide $6 million of value and keep that early fourth round pick, which has a real chance of being used on a valuable piece. Do I want $6 million in value or $6 million in value plus a fourth round pick?

I feel like Harvin would almost have to take a deal below market value to compensate the Jets for losing that pick. I don't see that happening. It isn't great to lose $6.5 million that could have been rolled over and a sixth round pick for Harvin to have never played a snap in a meaningful game with the Jets, but those resources are gone either way. Is it wise throwing even more at Harvin? Probably not.

Poll
What should the Jets do with Percy Harvin?

7% Keep him even if it means at his current cost.
(114 votes)

5% Keep him at his current cost unless an upgrade at receiver is available.
(70 votes)

43% Keep him if he'll restructure to a market value deal. Cut him otherwise.
(663 votes)

17% Keep him if he'll restructure to a deal below market value. Cut him otherwise.
(256 votes)

28% Cut him no matter what.
(431 votes)

1534 votes total

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I would offer him a $3 yr/ $20m deal with performance bonus payments to help him recoup lost money. Examples would be 100k per TD; $500k for  1,000 yds

500k for 60+ catches, 250k for playing 85% of snaps etc.

 

Give him a $2mil SB that gets him to $8.5 in 2015 and roll the dice.

 

We'll be rolling the dice on the 102nd pick as well

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Release him. Offer him nothing. Make sure the door hits him on his way out. Watch with a smirk when his next team realizes what a horrible mistake they made when he undermines the head coach, punches a teammate, or divides the locker room over one thing or another.

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I don't think anyone can argue that he's worth 10.5 million

What this definitive write up doesn't discuss is who replaces Harvin if he's cut? I'm all on board for signing Dez,Thomas, Cobb or Maclin and releasing Harvin. But is that realistic? Probably not.

So what's left? Torrey Smith? Kenny Britt? Using a 1st or 2nd round pick on a WR and throwing him in the starting lineup?

The jets can move on from Harvin after any season with no cap hit. I just don't see the reason to kick him to the curb this year- if we don't have any better options, we can afford his cap #, and he hasn't been a problem here (yet). His production in 2015 should be worth a 4th round pick in Gailey's offense. If it's not, or he starts acting up, cut him in 2016 and don't look back.

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if he weren't so prone to get injured I'd say restructure and keep him. but injury prone players are not very valuable. you have zero impact on a game from the trainers room. cut him

The more I look at it the more I want to say bye bye.   It is way too much money.  And Percy is not a wideout.  We still need a wideout who can beat a corner on a route in the red zone.  Percy will not shake a good corner loose and he will not out jump him in scoring situations.  Plus he is an injury guy.  I did not realize he was so far down on the list of playmakers. That reinforce my opinion.  I think we are dealing more here with a rep than with a talent.

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The thing is with him is you're still going to need a number 1 WR, someone to play opposite Decker - if paying him means you can't sign the WR you want then you absolutely have to let him go.  

 

If you're not going to get another top flight WR (there will be a few in FA this year) then keep him...but I would prefer to overpay someone in order to get him to come to the Jets than overpay Harvin.

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The more I look at it the more I want to say bye bye. It is way too much money. And Percy is not a wideout. We still need a wideout who can beat a corner on a route in the red zone. Percy will not shake a good corner loose and he will not out jump him in scoring situations. Plus he is an injury guy. I did not realize he was so far down on the list of playmakers. That reinforce my opinion. I think we are dealing more here with a rep than with a talent.

Yep, pretty much this.

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I don't think anyone can argue that he's worth 10.5 million

What this definitive write up doesn't discuss is who replaces Harvin if he's cut? I'm all on board for signing Dez,Thomas, Cobb or Maclin and releasing Harvin. But is that realistic? Probably not.

So what's left? Torrey Smith? Kenny Britt? Using a 1st or 2nd round pick on a WR and throwing him in the starting lineup?

The jets can move on from Harvin after any season with no cap hit. I just don't see the reason to kick him to the curb this year- if we don't have any better options, we can afford his cap #, and he hasn't been a problem here (yet). His production in 2015 should be worth a 4th round pick in Gailey's offense. If it's not, or he starts acting up, cut him in 2016 and don't look back.

It does not matter who replaces him, or even if nobody does. Harvin is not the kind of person you want on a team with a first time head coach. He will have his hands full... Bowles does not need a monumental pain in the butt to worry about. Harvin is a guaranteed locker room cancer.

The Jets are not winning a SB with or without Harvin. Bowles needs to build the system and culture he wants. Having a douche on the team that is only concerned about himself is counter-productive. Bouncing Harvin is addition by subtraction. Why is that so hard for some of you to see?

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This may be the first of Maccagnan's "big" decisions as GM, but it's without question the easiest.  Release Harvin and move on. 

 

It was a terrible trade to begin with that was aimed entirely at job preservation by the previous regime, and Harvin is not worth a 4th round pick and is certainly not worth anywhere in the neighborhood of 10.5 million.  

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It does not matter who replaces him, or even if nobody does. Harvin is not the kind of person you want on a team with a first time head coach. He will have his hands full... Bowles does not need a monumental pain in the butt to worry about. Harvin is a guaranteed locker room cancer.

The Jets are not winning a SB with or without Harvin. Bowles needs to build the system and culture he wants. Having a douche on the team that is only concerned about himself is counter-productive. Bouncing Harvin is addition by subtraction. Why is that so hard for some of you to see?

You've been following football for a long time and don't play a whole lot of Madden. Am I right?

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When is the last good 4th round pick we've had?

Last year it was Saunders & Evans, ones gone the other is a huge ?.

I do agree that you might be able to sign better value for 10.5 million.

A combo of Iupati/ Brandon Graham & I'll drive Percy to the airport myself.

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Stevie Johnson very likely will be cut by SF. Had very good seasons under Chan... I would sign him for $3-4mil if Percy balks at renegotiating and the top 3 FA Wide Receivers go elsewhere.

He used to give Revis fits. SF in a ton of cap problems.

 

Thoughts?

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Boozer, If your oppose to Harvin not being a down field threat like the article stated then your saying he was right for being a knucklehead in Minny for having displeasure in regards to his usage dispute having insane usage rate. Harvins number one beef their was not being used down field. As for the Jets it wasn't until the final 2 games in which we explored that.

 

 

Also with a full training camp along with knowing the playbook and having chemistry with his teammates I would expect him to improve. Percy is worth a 4th rounder, sh** we gave up a 2nd rounder for Cro who was on a one year contract.

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If not Harvin then who?  Saunders or some slug like him or better yet some retread like Nelson we need offensive playmakers

I think Michael Crabtree could be an option. It will be interesting to see how many free agents Bowles looks at from NFC West teams, players he's very familiar with.

Decker + Crabtree would give two decent sized strong handed WRs.

You have Iupati the All Pro guard from the Niners. You also have Maxwell the Seahawks CB.

I'm not a fan of going stop gap with Cro, why? We have the money to get a younger guy like Maxwell.

Cros a guy you get when your up against the cap.

I think every decision our new GM makes in Free Agency will be a concerted effort to sign young guys. This regime has got to build with the Tom Brady age decline in mind.

Between the Jets (Bowles) & Bills (Rex) blitzing ways, and great Dlines, Brady will get hit in those 4 games next year. I'd like to see a great effort by this Jets regime to start building a faster linebacker group!

The Super Bowl proved you need guys that are fast enough to knock the snot out of Edelman.

Bradys days of long ball are OVER!

The Seahawk secondary all having injuries that effected their tackling was as big a factor as any other in that game. Wham, they lost a Lane, Thomas playing with a dislocated shoulder, Sherman with a bad elbow, if you noticed Brady rarely challenged Maxwell.

They needed to disrupt Edelmans releases & never did.

I started a thread before the Super Bowl here about Edelman & it came true, he along with Vareen should have been a the Superbowl MVPs.

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I think Michael Crabtree could be an option. It will be interesting to see how many free agents Bowles looks at from NFC West teams, players he's very familiar with.

Decker + Crabtree would give two decent sized strong handed WRs.

You have Iupati the All Pro guard from the Niners. You also have Maxwell the Seahawks CB.

I'm not a fan of going stop gap with Cro, why? We have the money to get a younger guy like Maxwell.

Cros a guy you get when your up against the cap.

I think every decision our new GM makes in Free Agency will be a concerted effort to sign young guys. This regime has got to build with the Tom Brady age decline in mind.

Between the Jets (Bowles) & Bills (Rex) blitzing ways, and great Dlines, Brady will get hit in those 4 games next year. I'd like to see a great effort by this Jets regime to start building a faster linebacker group!

The Super Bowl proved you need guys that are fast enough to knock the snot out of Edelman.

Bradys days of long ball are OVER!

The Seahawk secondary all having injuries that effected their tackling was as big a factor as any other in that game. Wham, they lost a Lane, Thomas playing with a dislocated shoulder, Sherman with a bad elbow, if you noticed Brady rarely challenged Maxwell.

They needed to disrupt Edelmans releases & never did.

I started a thread before the Super Bowl here about Edelman & it came true, he along with Vareen should have been a the Superbowl MVPs.

Respectfully, we need someone to take the top off the "D" which helps Decker and Kerley. Maclin is that type of guy... Harvin is quick but not a pure speed guy. Tough call unless we can get someone in the draft with that skill set.

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I don't think anyone can argue that he's worth 10.5 million

What this definitive write up doesn't discuss is who replaces Harvin if he's cut? I'm all on board for signing Dez,Thomas, Cobb or Maclin and releasing Harvin. But is that realistic? Probably not.

So what's left? Torrey Smith? Kenny Britt? Using a 1st or 2nd round pick on a WR and throwing him in the starting lineup?

The jets can move on from Harvin after any season with no cap hit. I just don't see the reason to kick him to the curb this year- if we don't have any better options, we can afford his cap #, and he hasn't been a problem here (yet). His production in 2015 should be worth a 4th round pick in Gailey's offense. If it's not, or he starts acting up, cut him in 2016 and don't look back.

Kenny Brit isn't worth a look to me, and I dont think we'll be in the running for any of the top 4 WR's you mentioned if they do hit free agency. I would cut Harvin and try to sign Smith, if he doesnt sign then draft a WR. 

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Percy is a china doll. I'd rather spend $10 million on someone who can stay on the field. Randall Cobb isn't getting $10 million in FA and is 2x the player.

Hmm, Cobbs choice....stay in Green Bay with the best QB in football for less $ or go to the Jets & play with god knows who's throwing the ball to you?

Like someone else said. Ain't happening!

Best scenario.....Manning hangs em up & DT shakes loose and Decker somehow talks him into NY!

But I just can't see Dez, DT, or Cobb getting to free agency.

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Free agency 2015: Bryant, Thomas will demand big money, but who can pay up?

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2015-02-04/2015-nfl-free-agents-receivers-dez-bryant-demaryius-thomas-market-salary-cap-maclin-cobb-torrey-smith

Over the next few weeks I’ll be looking at some of the big positions of interest in free agency and breaking down potential pricing points for players. We’ll start this week with wide receivers, one of the deepest free agent groups in 2015.
Most positions in the NFL can be broken down into tiers based on salaries. Here is how I would break down the five tiers of receivers to determine baseline contracts for the free agents each season.
 wZ5qm3q.png?1
Tier 1 is the elite level players. Tier 2 includes players whom some teams may project as a number one, but don’t have the wide-ranging appeal of the top players. Tier 3 is reserved primarily for number two receivers or fading/aging number ones. Tier 4 mainly represents players who may have question marks, a unique skill, or are veterans nearing the end of a career. Tier 5 players are mainly players who are playing for the minimum and hoping to make a team.
MORE: Top 25 free agents | Lions reportedly favored to keep Suh | Lynch offered extension
Tier 1 free agents
The top two free agent wide receivers will be Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, arguably two of the top five receivers in the NFL. Both hit on every quality that teams look for in a receiver. They are both big, have elite draft status, and are highly productive every year.
Thomas has been more productive statistically, averaging 1,495 yards and 11.7 touchdowns over the last three years, but could see those numbers downgraded because he played in the Broncos offense. Bryant is a year younger and has been a more consistent touchdown threat with an average of 13.7 over the last three seasons. He may be a better athlete, but has some off the field concerns from the past that could scare teams.
Both players are considerably more productive than Mike Wallace and Percy Harvin were when they signed contracts worth $12 million and $12.9 million, respectively, in 2013. Bryant and Thomas could make a push for Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald money, which is over $16 million per season, but those players will be considered outliers and give teams negotiating leverage when signing contracts.
The failures of the high-priced receivers in recent years could have an impact on the deals being offered, but if all things are equal, they should earn very high salaries. Neither should accept a contract below the $11.1 million one signed by Vincent Jackson, then 29. A fair value would bridge the gap between the Wallace and Johnson contracts, coming in around $14 million a year and $27 and $30 million in guarantees. 
There is no guarantee that either player will reach free agency. They’re both under heavy consideration for the franchise tag. If they were to hit free agency, they would likely spark a bidding war between multiple teams. Teams with big needs for a number one receiver and significant money to spend would include the Raiders, Browns, Jets, Titans, and Colts. I could see playing with Andrew Luck as a factor in evaluating similar offers. The biggest offers should come from the Raiders and Jets.
Dez Bryant (Getty Images)
Tier 2 free agents
There are three players that fit in this category in 2015 — Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, and Torrey Smith. These players are a notch below the Tier 1 group but will spend much of the free agency period trying to convince a team that they are worth Tier 1 money. Each player has had one breakout season, but the performance level is closer to 1,000 yards than 1,300 yards.
MORE: Cowboys lack cap room to retain key players  | Teams with best, worst cap situations  
Maclin should be considered the most desirable of the three as he not only had a first round draft pedigree, but can also point to being productive with non-elite quarterbacks in Michael Vick, Mark Sanchez and Nick Foles. That should be a strong selling point to teams like the Raiders and Browns. The Seahawks could be lurking for a Maclin-type.
Cobb may have the most upside, but will need to convince teams that he is not a byproduct of Aaron Rodgers and that it is worth spending over $9 million on a slot receiver. If the Packers let him test free agency, some teams that could show interest in addition to the ones above might be the Bills and Chargers.
Smith is a notch below and more of a deep ball specialist similar to DeSean Jackson. Smith limps into free agency off a poor 2014 season and his salary should come in on the low end of the tier, around $7 million per season. He might be best suited for a team that needs a speed element to stretch the field, which makes a team like Seattle a nice match.
The best of the rest
The only Tier 3 receiver may be Michael Crabtree, who faded into oblivion into 2014. Crabtree would be looking at a contract near $4 million, which is the bottom of the tier. He would be an affordable option with upside for teams like the Panthers, Texans and Vikings, who are more limited in their budget.
Younger options that would probably sign three-year deals in the $3 million per year range include Cecil Shorts III, Kenny Britt, Denarius Moore and Niles Paul.  Teams are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle by identifying hidden skills in this group that mesh with their team offense. Most would be targeted by teams that are either strapped for cap space, or teams that have a relationship on the coaching staff with the player.
Veteran options include Wes Welker, Nate Washington, Miles Austin and Eddie Royal. These will be one- or two-year contracts worth $2.5 million to $3.5 million. Competitive teams with holes to fill often are attracted to these players.

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Respectfully, we need someone to take the top off the "D" which helps Decker and Kerley. Maclin is that type of guy... Harvin is quick but not a pure speed guy. Tough call unless we can get someone in the draft with that skill set.

Who is available that the Jets can get that's better than Crabtree?

Do you think Amari Cooper could step right in & be better? I certainly don't.

Crabtrees underrated, he had a GREAT year in 2013.

I want a big strong team that pounds people. Decker & Crabtree are really good blockers too.

Jets will have to win with balance, without a stud QB we have to just be a more powerful team & impose our will.

Fix the Oline (Iupati & Sherff)

Spread O doesn't have to mean shifty, it could also mean big guys in space vs shrimpy DBS.

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Hmm, Cobbs choice....stay in Green Bay with the best QB in football for less $ or go to the Jets & play with god knows who's throwing the ball to you?

Like someone else said. Ain't happening!

Best scenario.....Manning hangs em up & DT shakes loose and Decker somehow talks him into NY!

But I just can't see Dez, DT, or Cobb getting to free agency.

 

I never suggested that Randall Cobb was coming here. All I said was that Randall Cobb is 2x the player and won't get $10 million/year in FA. There are plenty of FA wide receivers above Percy's level hitting FA this year, and their contracts will set the market for what Percy will get.

 

He has absolutely no leverage. Either he takes a pay cut or he gets cut, it's that simple. What's the going rate for a cancerous, undersized, injury-prone, gimmick slot receiver who can't get open unless plays are specifically designed for him? It's not $10 million a year, and to be honest I think he'd be lucky to get half that on the open market. 

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If not Harvin then who? Saunders or some slug like him or better yet some retread like Nelson we need offensive playmakers

Offensive playmakers, yes. Grossly overrated, injury-prone players that punch teammates, choke coaches, and have been suspended/booted from teams at every level since High School? Hell no.

Percy Harvin is a worthless POS. Seattle figured it out quickly.

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Offensive playmakers, yes. Grossly overrated, injury-prone players that punch teammates, choke coaches, and have been suspended/booted from teams at every level since High School? Hell no.

Percy Harvin is a worthless POS. Seattle figured it out quickly.

i dont remember him doing any of that here and is it all true there are 3 sides to every story.

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I would say releae him and let him test the market. If there is a sucker out there that will overpay him than so be it. But i see that very less likely to happen. With the last year's draft and this coming year's draft being strong on the WR position there are not many WR hungry teams out there other than say other than the JETS.So i don't think in today's NFL any team overpay's him and he may end up getting something like a  more than a 1 year tryout contract at 3-5 mill.

 

The JETS could easily match that maybe give him 2 yr 6 to 10 mill performance based deal.

 

I think he is a good enough weapon to be a good value at that price point.

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I would say releae him and let him test the market. If there is a sucker out there that will overpay him than so be it. But i see that very less likely to happen. With the last year's draft and this coming year's draft being strong on the WR position there are not many WR hungry teams out there other than say other than the JETS.So i don't think in today's NFL any team overpay's him and he may end up getting something like a  more than a 1 year tryout contract at 3-5 mill.

 

The JETS could easily match that maybe give him 2 yr 6 to 10 mill performance based deal.

 

I think he is a good enough weapon to be a good value at that price point.

The more I read & study our options I agree with you regarding Harvin. With all of the options for free agents & his past history I don't see teams falling over each other to sign him.

Also does anyone know if we can cut & sign him without losing our 4th rounder. I seem to remember the a Jets getting burnt by this loophole when we traded someone?

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