Jets offense PPG w/ Fitz at QB predictions

[AFJF]

We don't need another "is Fitz good" thread, but based on how divided the board is, I'm curious to get opinions on how many PPG the Jets will average on offense over the first four games if he is in fact the QB.

Like him or not, he's likely the QB for the first month of the season, so what kind of point totals is everyone expecting?

I'll go with 20 PPG based largely on lack of reps early in camp and less than four quarters of action with his starting offense.  Slow start, but he'll be steady.

[Mike135]

Would prefer not being negative right before the season, so I'll wait 'til after Saturday's game to vote.  Hope we get to see some improvement from Fitz.

If I had to vote based on camp reports and what we've seen the first two games... don't know how you could argue for anything higher than the first two options  (0-7, 8-17).  

At this point I'd be comfortable with the 8-17 option if that includes defensive and any special teams scoring as well.

[slats]

Might want to tighten the choices down. Half the league fell within 18-24 points last year, with the Jets just missing at 17.7. 

[Jetster]

We might be surprised as this is the 1st QB since Pennington that actually has a brain. 

Sanchez & Geno were young turnover machines constantly putting our defense on their heels with turnovers on our side of the field.

i see Fitzy being a lot better at SITUATIONAL football like throwing it out of bounds so as to not lose yardage & to live for another play. I also see Fitzy converting more short yardage 3rd downs using Marshall & Deckers size because they are big strong targets.

i also see us getting more yardage on check downs from Fitz because unlike Sanchez & Geno Fitz actually knows where they should be after going much quicker through his progressions. This will not only move the chains but keep the defense more rested & have a cumilitive affect that comes to play in the 4th quarter with our power running game.

Chan Gailey biggest challenge is calling good plays on 1st & 2nd down, Fitzy not strong arming the ball & he's not going to be running for 1st downs like Geno. If Fitz plays mistake free football the team will rally around him. Nothing defenses hate more than 3 & outs and TOs in their own end of the field.

[#27TheDominator]

Might want to tighten the choices down. Half the league fell within 18-24 points last year, with the Jets just missing at 17.7. 

+1

I think he will be in that range.  I am would guess towards the lower end, but I'd hope for around 21.  Just a guess though.  Since we are looking at 4 games, the Browns should have a decent D, they have spent enough, but they are planning on a rookie NT, their O should be sketchy and  they totally fell apart down the stretch last year, so it is tough to know what to expect.  Texans put up 23 on them last year, but Mallet was at QB.  Colts and Eagles should give up plenty of points.  The Dolphins game should be the actual test.

[AFJF]

Might want to tighten the choices down. Half the league fell within 18-24 points last year, with the Jets just missing at 17.7. 

You're right...I should have.  I thought about that, but kept it at a wide range because if this defense plays up to par, 17+ per game should be enough.  Left two options on there that should put them in position to have a winning record, two that will almost surely get them a losing record, and then a 32+.

Curious because of the number of people saying Fitz is a terrible QB but even with him they should be able to score enough points to win and curious to see who actually believes he will perform like one of the worst QB's in the NFL which is what he'd have to be to average <17 ppg IMO.

Definitely should've tightened it up a bit though.

[JustInFudge]

17pts a game sound about right. 

[bealeb319]

8-17 sounds about right to me, I think Fitz will probably be worth 1-2 touchdown drives per game and hopefully our defense scores a couple. What is more important to me than how many points we get per game is how many points we avoid letting the opposing teams score.

[NYs Stepchild]

17pts a game sound about right. 

We all know you're very objective on this issue.

Last year he averaged 25.6 ppg never scoring less than 17, but we all know that is just another misleading stat.

[JustInFudge]

We all know you're very objective on this issue.

Last year he averaged 25.6 ppg never scoring less than 17, but we all know that is just another misleading stat.

Last year the Jets won 4 games.  Are they going to do that again? 

Is he still playing in the worst division in Football handing off to Arian Foster and throwing to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins?

Or is he playing in the same division as the SB champs along with 2 of the best D's in the league? 

 

 

[NYs Stepchild]

Last year the Jets won 4 games.  Are they going to do that again? 

Is he still playing in the worst division in Football handing off to Arian Foster and throwing to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins?

Or is he playing in the same division as the SB champs along with 2 of the best D's in the league? 

 

 

AJ is finished. He just can't outmuscle a db anymore, and that's his game. They had no one else after those top two targets at all. No 3rd WR, and no TE. The line was bad, and the play calling was Herm Edwards esq. RRPP until they were down 2 scores, and they had to throw every down. I watched all the games twice.  

Idk if you've checked our schedule, but we are not facing murderers row. The sky is not falling.

[JustInFudge]

AJ is finished. He just can't outmuscle a db anymore, and that's his game. They had no one else after those top two targets at all. No 3rd WR, and no TE. The line was bad, and the play calling was Herm Edwards esq. RRPP until they were down 2 scores, and they had to throw every down. I watched all the games twice.  

Idk if you've checked our schedule, but we are not facing murderers row. The sky is not falling.

You call 85 receptions (led the team) finished?  lol.  You watched all the games twice?  So then you probably noticed they only scored vs. horrible teams. 

Maybe 17 is being harsh.  How about 19? 

[NYs Stepchild]

You call 85 receptions (led the team) finished?  lol.  You watched all the games twice?  So then you probably noticed they only scored vs. horrible teams. 

Maybe 17 is being harsh.  How about 19? 

85 receptions? Are you using stats to determine if a player is good or not?

I just told you that the Texans had absolutely no one else behind those two receivers. Of course he's going to have a lot of catches, but that doesn't make him a great player anymore. He let the team down almost every time they were close to coming back in those games, which as I said were far too conservative early.

Decker, Marshall, and our depth are way better than what the Texans had. Hopefully Chan won't be as predictable as O'Brien was last year either.

[JustInFudge]

85 receptions? Are you using stats to determine if a player is good or not?

I just told you that the Texans had absolutely no one else behind those two receivers. Of course he's going to have a lot of catches, but that doesn't make him a great player anymore. He let the team down almost every time they were close to coming back in those games, which as I said were far too conservative early.

Decker, Marshall, and our depth are way better than what the Texans had. Hopefully Chan won't be as predictable as O'Brien was last year either.

Let's see what Andre does this year with Luck.  He's far from done, homey. 

112 - 1600, 109 - 14000, 85 - 900 - that's not the sign of someone who's done and that's his last 3 years.  It's the sign of someone who had sh*tty QB throwing to him last year.  

I like your optimism.  Not sure where you get if from as a Jets fan but I'll let you be disappointed rather than prepared. 

Decker and Marshall are better than Hopkins and Johnson...oh man. lol

[nyjunc]

We might be surprised as this is the 1st QB since Pennington that actually has a brain. 

Sanchez & Geno were young turnover machines constantly putting our defense on their heels with turnovers on our side of the field.

i see Fitzy being a lot better at SITUATIONAL football like throwing it out of bounds so as to not lose yardage & to live for another play. I also see Fitzy converting more short yardage 3rd downs using Marshall & Deckers size because they are big strong targets.

i also see us getting more yardage on check downs from Fitz because unlike Sanchez & Geno Fitz actually knows where they should be after going much quicker through his progressions. This will not only move the chains but keep the defense more rested & have a cumilitive affect that comes to play in the 4th quarter with our power running game.

Chan Gailey biggest challenge is calling good plays on 1st & 2nd down, Fitzy not strong arming the ball & he's not going to be running for 1st downs like Geno. If Fitz plays mistake free football the team will rally around him. Nothing defenses hate more than 3 & outs and TOs in their own end of the field.

Fitz went to Harvard so he's smart- we get it but that doesn't mean he is football smart.

 

Fitz for his career turns it over one time for every 23 times dropping back to pass.

Sanchez 1 every 21 times(and at least made big plays which Fitz does not)

Geno 1 every 20 times

 

this notion that Fitz is smart and protects the ball just isn't true.

[NYs Stepchild]

Let's see what Andre does this year with Luck.  He's far from done, homey. 

112 - 1600, 109 - 14000, 85 - 900 - that's not the sign of someone who's done and that's his last 3 years.  It's the sign of someone who had sh*tty QB throwing to him last year.  

I like your optimism.  Not sure where you get if from as a Jets fan but I'll let you be disappointed rather than prepared. 

Decker and Marshall are better than Hopkins and Johnson...oh man. lol

I got it from watching last year's Texan games...You should try it

1600 1400 900 then released does sound a lot like a player who's brilliant career is about over...Anyway you are correct. We will see.

[JustInFudge]

I got it from watching last year's Texan games...You should try it

1600 1400 900 then released does sound a lot like a player who's brilliant career is about over...Anyway you are correct. We will see.

Why would I watch the Texans?

 

[nyjunc]

We all know you're very objective on this issue.

Last year he averaged 25.6 ppg never scoring less than 17, but we all know that is just another misleading stat.

actual PPG in games he started was 21 PPG.  still decent but certainly not almost 26 PPG including the D/STs scores.

[AFJF]

Fitz went to Harvard so he's smart- we get it but that doesn't mean he is football smart.

 

Fitz for his career turns it over one time for every 23 times dropping back to pass.

Sanchez 1 every 21 times(and at least made big plays which Fitz does not)

Geno 1 every 20 times

 

this notion that Fitz is smart and protects the ball just isn't true.

What were the TD ratios for each?

[JustInFudge]

actual PPG in games he started was 21 PPG.  still decent but certainly not almost 26 PPG including the D/STs scores.

Yeah but did you watch every Texans game twice?

[nyjunc]

What were the TD ratios for each?

1 TD pass for every 24 attempts for Fitz

1 every 27 for sanchez

1 every 32 for Geno

 

wins(most important stat(

Fitz- 1 win every 2.7 starts

Sanchez every 1.9(4 more wins in 19 less starts)

Geno every 2.6

[AFJF]

1 TD pass for every 24 attempts for Fitz

1 every 27 for sanchez

1 every 32 for Geno

 

wins(most important stat(

Fitz- 1 win every 2.7 starts

Sanchez every 1.9(4 more wins in 19 less starts)

Geno every 2.6

Wins are the most important team stat IMO.  I think wins are also impacted by defense and special teams, not solely the quarterback.  If that were the case, Mark Sanchez was a better QB than Peyton Manning, Matt Cassell, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Josh Freeman in 2010 when he threw 20 TD's with 14 INT's.  Would you take 2010 Mark Sanchez over any of the other on-field performances of the other QB's listed from that year?

[nyjunc]

Wins are the most important team stat IMO.  I think wins are also impacted by defense and special teams, not solely the quarterback.  If that were the case, Mark Sanchez was a better QB than Peyton Manning, Matt Cassell, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Josh Freeman in 2010 when he threw 20 TD's with 14 INT's.  Would you take 2010 Mark Sanchez over any of the other on-field performances over the other QB's listed from that year?

it's really hard to win w/o quality QB play.

 

mark was better than Eli and Freeman in 2010 and he was a top 10 QB in 2010.

 

Rivers had the #1 ranked D in 2010 in a weak division and couldn't make playoffs, Mark as a rookie on the road in the div rd outplayed the overrated Rivers in 2009.

[Beerfish]

it's really hard to win w/o quality QB play.

 

mark was better than Eli and Freeman in 2010 and he was a top 10 QB in 2010.

 

Rivers had the #1 ranked D in 2010 in a weak division and couldn't make playoffs, Mark as a rookie on the road in the div rd outplayed the overrated Rivers in 2009.

You are quite clearly insane, or on drugs, or both.

[AFJF]

Right, but I'm just talking about wins which you said are the most important stat for a QB.  If so, Sanchez was a better QB in 2010 than every other QB I listed despite their stats.

And Sanchez was better than Freeman?

Sanchez- 20 TD/14 INT, 54.8% comp

Freeman- 25 TD/6 INT- 61.4% comp

If given the choice, I'd prefer Fitz is closer to Freeman's numbers in 2010 than Sanchez's numbers on 2010...JMO.

[munchmemory]

Fitz went to Harvard so he's smart- we get it but that doesn't mean he is football smart.

 

Fitz for his career turns it over one time for every 23 times dropping back to pass.

Sanchez 1 every 21 times(and at least made big plays which Fitz does not)

Geno 1 every 20 times

 

this notion that Fitz is smart and protects the ball just isn't true.

[nyjunc]

You are quite clearly insane, or on drugs, or both.

c) I watch football and don't just look at fantasy #s.

Eli had TWENTY FIVE INTs that season, NYG missed the playoffs by 1 game.  you think his TOs hurt them?  biggest game of the season at GB week 16 which essentially determine a playoff spot btw the 2 teams Eli threw FOUR INTs in the loss.  meanwhile Sanchez led us to late game comeback win after late game comeback win.

 

Freeman put up nice #s w/ weak sched and no pressure to win, they were never truly in the race.

[nyjunc]

Right, but I'm just talking about wins which you said are the most important stat for a QB.  If so, Sanchez was a better QB in 2010 than every other QB I listed despite their stats.

And Sanchez was better than Freeman?

Sanchez- 20 TD/14 INT, 54.8% comp

Freeman- 25 TD/6 INT- 61.4% comp

If given the choice, I'd prefer Fitz is closer to Freeman's numbers in 2010 than Sanchez's numbers on 2010...JMO.

YES sanchez was better than Freeman, Freeman was under no pressure to win, they beat some bad teams and pretended like they were in the race but never really were while Sanchez was helping his team get to the playoffs and win in the playoffs.

 

Freeman threw 7 TDs and 0 INts the last 2 weeks which were meaningless.  sanchez sat out week 17 against a bad Bills team so he didn;t have a  chance to pad stats.

 

I'd prefer Fitz play more like sanchez than Freeman though, Sanchez proved he could play under pressure, Freeman and fitz haven't been able to do that.

[AFJF]

Hey, to each his own...I'll take more TD's and fewer INT's every time.

[nyjunc]

Hey, to each his own...I'll take more TD's and fewer INT's every time.

on the surface I agree but we need to see who those TDs and INts were accumulated.  all TOs are bad but some hurt a lot more than others.   TDs are great but if you are down or up big late and throw some Tds what does it really matter?  an example is the 2012 opener.  we crushed Buffalo, we were beating them 41-7.  Fitz throws 3 garbage time TDs and we win 48-28.  who cares about those TDs?

[Scott Dierking]

If the other team scores 3, I hope the Jets score 4.

If the other team scores 34, i hope they score 35.

How they do it, who is at the helm, I do not care. The Rex Ryan era of thinking "this is what the defense gave up, and this is what the offense didn't do" needs to be over.

Let's have a TEAM that wins.

[Gastineau Lives]

c) I watch football and don't just look at fantasy #s.

Eli had TWENTY FIVE INTs that season, NYG missed the playoffs by 1 game.  you think his TOs hurt them?  biggest game of the season at GB week 16 which essentially determine a playoff spot btw the 2 teams Eli threw FOUR INTs in the loss.  meanwhile Sanchez led us to late game comeback win after late game comeback win.

 

Freeman put up nice #s w/ weak sched and no pressure to win, they were never truly in the race.

a) You keep implying that anyone that disagrees with you must be really into fantasy football (although not a one of them ever mentions fantasy football in their posts), therefore not really as knowledgeable as you, who don't.

b ) Not sure you're aware, but the really good players put up really good fantasy numbers. These two lists are not mutually exclusive.

c) Your hubris and condescension are only matched by your utter ******* stupidity and I wish you were gone.

 

[AFJF]

on the surface I agree but we need to see who those TDs and INts were accumulated.  all TOs are bad but some hurt a lot more than others.   TDs are great but if you are down or up big late and throw some Tds what does it really matter?  an example is the 2012 opener.  we crushed Buffalo, we were beating them 41-7.  Fitz throws 3 garbage time TDs and we win 48-28.  who cares about those TDs?

Right...but his career numbers show that he has been a very good QB when playing in a tie game or with a lead.  If the defense plays up to its potential, he should be in those types of situations on a fairly regular basis as it won't take much to get the lead.

If the defense plays the way it did while he was in Buffalo, then yes, I think he will have another terrible season with lots of garbage time stats.

[nyjunc]

a) You keep implying that anyone that disagrees with you must be really into fantasy football (although not a one of them ever mentions fantasy football in their posts), therefore not really as knowledgeable as you, who don't.

b ) Not sure you're aware, but the really good players put up really good fantasy numbers. These two lists are not mutually exclusive.

c) Your hubris and condescension are only matched by your utter ******* stupidity and I wish you were gone.

 

a) anyone who thinks Fitz is good is clearly just looking at #s

b)sure, Fitz isn't one of them

c) stick to the topics, if you disagree try to counter rather than hurl childish insults.

[BigRy56]

Fully expecting 20-24 points per game.

The Jets have a very good receiving corp and Ivory is a stud. The line might have a weakness in Colon but the offensive line as a whole is above average. As long as the turnovers are limited the Jets will do just fine on offense.