Blade Mafia - Blood of the Forefathers

[AVM]

Ignoring that for a bit to grab the trains...

[AVM]

On 4/18/2020 at 4:32 PM, AVM said:

Stall vs Final for GATA:

Stalled - Gata (9) - Lizzie, AJ, Jvill, Drums, Stark, Beaver, Leelou, AVM, Hess
Final - Gata (12) - Lizzie, jvill, Stark, Leelou, AVM, Nolder, JIF, 80, CTM, AJ, SMC, JC

 

Stall vs Final for Lizzie:

Stalled - Lizzie (7) - Nyn, AVM, Verbal, JC, 80, Beaver, JIF (Hess was also here at the stall)
Final - Lizzie (10) - Nyn, AVM, Verbal, JC, 80, Beaver, Hess, JIF, CTM, SMC

Notes:

• Seems highly likely to me (right now) that 80 was town at the time of Gata's lynch...otherwise you're talking about 2 roleblockers for different days on cult or 3 "SK" aligned players? Doesn't seem to fit but irrelevant to the train analysis..
  • Statistically speaking it's almost impossible there were not at least two non-town players on that train, right? Gata did make it easy for them though...but the fact that the train stalled out for so long makes it REALLY hard for me to believe scum were not going to touch Gata
• On the final train for both we have AVM (me), JC, 80, JiF, CTM and SMC...there is almost certainly scum in that pool if we were to narrow it down, but still like shooting fish in a barrel to a degree
• SMC and CTM in at the end of both of those lynches but were not on when they stalled is among the best look I've got
• AVM (me) the only person on all 4 trains

Unrelated notes:

• @CTM at one point yesterday you asked Barry to say definitively that he was town...anything to add?
• Still nothing about vote controlling and I feel like we're glossing over it?
• Barry, Boozer and DPR not on any of the trains...which is good, except for the issue of the conversions
  • Barry came through that re-read looking really strong, if it's an act it's a damn good one
• The back and forth between Drums and 80 felt weird...I get wanting to get to night earlier but there are two non-town killing roles out there and maybe 3 based on Pac's last scene? And 1-2 shots that can happen during the day. Getting to and through night won't help if we come through it with good intel and shots are fired immediately

Want to check vote count...either CTM or Leelou. The CTM/SMC coming in at the end of two townie lynches that had stalled is of note...if we're looking for Blade and CL in particular. Early CTM play didn't ping me as cult or blade or anything in particular...more disinterested town, but I swear it's almost like he has a PR...

For me it's Leelou, CTM, or SMC as a bit further down 3rd.

 

On 4/18/2020 at 4:14 PM, deckerfan said:

Official Vote Count:

80 (1) -  SMC

Leelou (8) - CTM, JIF, DPR, 80, Leelou, Barry, Jvill, Drums

 

With 15 reapers alive, it takes 8 to lynch

 

 

21 hours ago, Pac said:

FINAL VOTE COUNT:

Beaver (1) - Stark

JC (2) - 80

80 (1) - JIF, Barry, DPR, Verb, Boozer, AVM

 

 

 

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, AVM said:

This isn't a pointless town role....

Good point but was he supposed to say it was?  lol

[Jetscode1]

46 minutes ago, JiF said:

Vote JC

I'm comfortable here, still rereading but in all the pages I've read so far today, he hasnt even attempted to scum hunt the entire game. 

Why?  

[JustInFudge]

I think the Mason should reveal...

 

[JustInFudge]

Just now, Jetscode1 said:

Why?  

Because you're either cult or Sk.  My guess?  SK.

[Jetscode1]

9 minutes ago, JiF said:

Because you're either cult or Sk.  My guess?  SK.

Wrong!

[AVM]

Stall vs Final for GATA:

Stalled - Gata (9) - Lizzie, AJ*, Jvill, Drums, Stark, Beaver, Leelou, AVM, Hess
Final - Gata (12) - Lizzie, jvill, Stark, Leelou, AVM, Nolder, JIF, 80, CTM, AJ*, SMC, JC

Stall vs Final for Lizzie:

Stalled - Lizzie (7) - Nyn, AVM, Verbal, JC, 80, Beaver, JIF (Hess was also here at the stall)
Final - Lizzie (10) - Nyn, AVM, Verbal, JC, 80, Beaver, Hess, JIF, CTM, SMC

Final for Leelou:

Leelou (8) - CTM, JIF, DPR, 80, Leelou, Barry, Jvill, Drums

Final for 80: 80 (1) - JIF, Barry, DPR, Verb, Boozer, AVM

*I kept AJ as blue because he was town at the time of the D1 votes

Notes:

• Boozers first appearance on any train stalled or final was 80s death
• Starks only appearance on the final stalled and final Gata train - so just one of the 4
• JiF the most common, only not on the original stalled train of Gata
• Agreed that it's damn near impossible for jville to be cult, SK still possible
• Highly doubt that JiF or DPR are cult based on that placement + a Leelou self-vote
• There were only 4 non-town roles during Gata's lynch...so at the stall there were 2 - both the cult. hard to imagine the SK duo avoided it the entire day

High priority to ISO Nyn's limited posts to try and pin down the SK better because I didn't find that overly helpful. Do think it narrows down our convert pool though. I'll ISO Nyn after I do some work, but I have been in this thread to start the day lol

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, Jetscode1 said:

Wrong!

Well, I'm convinced! 

[JustInFudge]

unvote

[AVM]

12 minutes ago, JiF said:

Good point but was he supposed to say it was?  lol

What it actually was? I just don't see the upside/benefit of the way he revealed.

He also wasn't on the Leelou train but that goes for all of the alive players aside from you, DPR and jville so I think I'm just looking for a connection there.

[JustInFudge]

Vote Verbal 

[Verbal]

16 hours ago, Beaver said:

Truth be told, I would have voted for 80.  I wasn't around when all of that was going on.  It surprised the hell out of me when i came back and saw he was lynched.

Wait, you didn't like that I voted for 80, but then you say you would have voted for him?  Seriously?

 

 

59 minutes ago, JiF said:

I've got 2 firm town reads; Me and You.

We've got 2 "revealed" townie that I will buy at face value for now; Stark and Beaver

I've got 2 strong town reads on; AVM and Jville.

Boozer - if homeboy is scum, hats off, I will just laugh. 

That leaves; Verb and JC.  Neither of which, have put an ounce of effort into solving the game or scum hunting.

 

 

I absolutely put in effort before the weekend, but yesterday was more of a catchup day after missing the weekend.  I was on Leelou early on (right), and a little bit of Nyn (wrong), and then Hess (right) and JC (unknown).  So yeah, I've been scumhunting....you're just remembering me not being around recently and that recency bias is contorting your view of me.  I'm playing, and I've been active and putting in effort.

[AVM]

3 minutes ago, AVM said:

Stall vs Final for GATA:

Stalled - Gata (9) - Lizzie, AJ*, Jvill, Drums, Stark, Beaver, Leelou, AVM, Hess
Final - Gata (12) - Lizzie, jvill, Stark, Leelou, AVM, Nolder, JIF, 80, CTM, AJ*, SMC, JC

Stall vs Final for Lizzie:

Stalled - Lizzie (7) - Nyn, AVM, Verbal, JC, 80, Beaver, JIF (Hess was also here at the stall)
Final - Lizzie (10) - Nyn, AVM, Verbal, JC, 80, Beaver, Hess, JIF, CTM, SMC

Final for Leelou:

Leelou (8) - CTM, JIF, DPR, 80, Leelou, Barry, Jvill, Drums

Final for 80: 80 (1) - JIF, Barry, DPR, Verb, Boozer, AVM

*I kept AJ as blue because he was town at the time of the D1 votes

Notes:

• Boozers first appearance on any train stalled or final was 80s death
• Starks only appearance on the final stalled and final Gata train - so just one of the 4
• JiF the most common, only not on the original stalled train of Gata
• Agreed that it's damn near impossible for jville to be cult, SK still possible
• Highly doubt that JiF or DPR are cult based on that placement + a Leelou self-vote
• There were only 4 non-town roles during Gata's lynch...so at the stall there were 2 - both the cult. hard to imagine the SK duo avoided it the entire day

High priority to ISO Nyn's limited posts to try and pin down the SK better because I didn't find that overly helpful. Do think it narrows down our convert pool though. I'll ISO Nyn after I do some work, but I have been in this thread to start the day lol

More notes:

• As mentioned to JiF...no Beaver on Leelou train. Almost looks like cult/SK have targeted that train to pick off, which seems like a big deal..but a lot of players not on that train still alive
• JC, Verb, Boozer, Stark, Beaver on exclusively town trains (but limited sample size, only Leelous train)

 

[DPR]

Kill List: Color key = Blade, Cult, SK

D1 - no kills

N1 - Nolder (Blade kill) *can't remember if N1 or D2...

 

D2 - no kills -Conversions only - 7 attempts total with success on #4 and #7 

N2 - Nyn (SK Apprentice, so Cult Kill) ... AJ (Cult Recruit, so SK kill)

 

D3 - Hess (Cult, so SK kill) 

N3 - Drums (Cult kill?) ... CTM (Blade kill)

 

D4 - SMC (Blade, so SK kill?) 

N4 - Barry (Cult kill?) 

 

D5 - ?

 

*Drums, SMC & Barry are my best guess as to what type of kill:

D4 was a confirmed SK kill, so it seems unlikely that the N4 kill would be SK again and skip Cult.

It seems equally unlikely (to me) that Cult would strike on D4 after a N3 kill, so same logic as above. 

If these are correct, the SK is killing off experienced OG players while the Cult is killing off newer players. Both trends display who the killers feel is most likely to spot them, so I'm looking for an OG player to be SK and a newer player as the Recruit. 

That's why I'm voting for Boozer and JC to reveal today.

 

 

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, AVM said:

What it actually was? I just don't see the upside/benefit of the way he revealed.

He also wasn't on the Leelou train but that goes for all of the alive players aside from you, DPR and jville so I think I'm just looking for a connection there.

I mean, I dont think he thought it was a reveal.  And neither did I.  Granted he never elaborated but I'm kind of glad he didnt if he's town.  Useful role at end game, definitely one of the more clever fakes if so (there was an epic one back in the day, way back in the day, Jetsthings maybe?, wow so long ago lol) but that would be clever for sure and both dead bad guy teams have clever enough players to assist him on that but still inclined to believe him for now...

 

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, Verbal said:

Wait, you didn't like that I voted for 80, but then you say you would have voted for him?  Seriously?

 

 

I absolutely put in effort before the weekend, but yesterday was more of a catchup day after missing the weekend.  I was on Leelou early on (right), and a little bit of Nyn (wrong), and then Hess (right) and JC (unknown).  So yeah, I've been scumhunting....you're just remembering me not being around recently and that recency bias is contorting your view of me.  I'm playing, and I've been active and putting in effort.

You did early but not really after.  In a conversion game that concerning.  My guess is you're the last cult.

 

[Jetscode1]

7 minutes ago, AVM said:

More notes:

• As mentioned to JiF...no Beaver on Leelou train. Almost looks like cult/SK have targeted that train to pick off, which seems like a big deal..but a lot of players not on that train still alive
• JC, Verb, Boozer, Stark, Beaver on exclusively town trains (but limited sample size, only Leelous train)

 

I've missed the past two lynches because of the speed of the trains.  I know its not a good look but its truth.  

[Jetscode1]

11 minutes ago, Verbal said:

Wait, you didn't like that I voted for 80, but then you say you would have voted for him?  Seriously?

 

 

I absolutely put in effort before the weekend, but yesterday was more of a catchup day after missing the weekend.  I was on Leelou early on (right), and a little bit of Nyn (wrong), and then Hess (right) and JC (unknown).  So yeah, I've been scumhunting....you're just remembering me not being around recently and that recency bias is contorting your view of me.  I'm playing, and I've been active and putting in effort.

Hey look Verb's back.  Vote Verbal

[JustInFudge]

10 minutes ago, DPR said:

Kill List: Color key = Blade, Cult, SK

D1 - no kills

N1 - Nolder (Blade kill) *can't remember if N1 or D2...

 

D2 - no kills -Conversions only - 7 attempts total with success on #4 and #7 

N2 - Nyn (SK Apprentice, so Cult Kill) ... AJ (Cult Recruit, so SK kill)

 

D3 - Hess (Cult, so SK kill) 

N3 - Drums (Cult kill?) ... CTM (Blade kill)

 

D4 - SMC (Blade, so SK kill?) 

N4 - Barry (Cult kill?) 

 

D5 - ?

 

*Drums, SMC & Barry are my best guess as to what type of kill:

D4 was a confirmed SK kill, so it seems unlikely that the N4 kill would be SK again and skip Cult.

It seems equally unlikely (to me) that Cult would strike on D4 after a N3 kill, so same logic as above. 

If these are correct, the SK is killing off experienced OG players while the Cult is killing off newer players. Both trends display who the killers feel is most likely to spot them, so I'm looking for an OG player to be SK and a newer player as the Recruit. 

That's why I'm voting for Boozer and JC to reveal today.

 

 

What did Boozer do with the edit, can you explain it to me?  I didnt see it real time and looking back dont get it.

[deckerfan]

Official Vote Count:

JC (1) - Beaver

Verbal (2) - JIF, JC

 

with 9 reapers alive, it takes 5 to lynch

[Stark]

5 minutes ago, JiF said:

What did Boozer do with the edit, can you explain it to me?  I didnt see it real time and looking back dont get it.

i was around right as DPR was bringing this up. I didn't see it either. 

[JustInFudge]

unvote

[Verbal]

14 minutes ago, JiF said:

You did early but not really after.  In a conversion game that concerning.  My guess is you're the last cult.

 

Fair point, but that was due to the weekend, as you know.  Since coming back, I've been posting again and am fully caught up (I think).  But yeah, if I need to go for POE, I'm ok with that.

 

 

9 minutes ago, Jetscode1 said:

Hey look Verb's back.  Vote Verbal

Wow, you opportunistic mother****er!  You say oh I was away because the lynches went fast, and then jump on my train as soon as one develops.

 

If anything is gross, this is it.

[Jetscode1]

7 minutes ago, Verbal said:

Fair point, but that was due to the weekend, as you know.  Since coming back, I've been posting again and am fully caught up (I think).  But yeah, if I need to go for POE, I'm ok with that.

 

 

Wow, you opportunistic mother****er!  You say oh I was away because the lynches went fast, and then jump on my train as soon as one develops.

 

If anything is gross, this is it.

Are you the SK or the convert?  

[Stark]

2 hours ago, Beaver said:

You want a breadcrumb.   I would possibly look at the people who have not voted for me.   I look at it this way.   My reads are ass and it’s probably even worse this game cause I’m not trying as much.   So scum would want to keep me around for as long as possible because I am the least threat to them.

why not trying

1 hour ago, DPR said:

GTH - who's our SK?

GTH?

46 minutes ago, JiF said:

I think the Mason should reveal...

im kind of torn on this.... not the worst idea just not sure if thats the play 

[DPR]

49 minutes ago, AVM said:

Not necessarily in this order, but...

Beaver - weak reveal that struck me at the time as practically saying VT. Some were struggling with "is town slut even a role?!" and he couldn't offer up something that could have helped there. Regardless I think 80 was getting lynched - I did hammer without him speaking - but giving nothing was not townie play. He's also had a tendency to show up right as people, myself included, have said something to the effect of "I forgot beaver was still playing"

JC - he clearly earned something, I think we all agree on that. His positioning on trains looked bad (more on that next post...gotta pull the analysis up and fill in new trains)...

Jville - Just putting here til I look at the train analysis...feel a little better today than yesterday

Boozer - WTF...I said a couple days ago that the lost noobie thing seemed genuine and it still does...but the edit thing is gross..

What the actual **** dude...

1 - you're telling the truth and had not only another oddball role but a SUPER powerful role as we were discussing voting at the end here...

2 - you all bought time to look up a role we wouldn't want to lynch...

You skipped reads on me and JiF

 

44 minutes ago, JiF said:

I think the Mason should reveal...

 

Hopefully it's 2 Masons left - that would not be overpowered in a game with at least 4 Cult, Sk & Apprentice and so many negative utility town roles.

I think they should not reveal. This will just set them up as kill targets for SK and Recruit and we'll need them tomorrow.

 

15 minutes ago, JiF said:

What did Boozer do with the edit, can you explain it to me?  I didnt see it real time and looking back dont get it.

I should have quoted it, but I forgot we can edit and didn't move fast enough.

It was a Oh Noes! post that said something along the lines of "Why couldn't it have been scum!" which was just really weird. That's why I posted that scum does not kill itself. I asked him to explain, and he said he thought Pac was killing players? Then he posted a smirking cat gif. The whole thing was just weird.

[DPR]

2 minutes ago, Stark said:

why not trying

GTH?

im kind of torn on this.... not the worst idea just not sure if thats the play 

GTH is Gun To Head, meaning if you had to make a gut call right now, who would it be? It pays on "your first instinct is usually your best instinct" logic.

[Verbal]

2 minutes ago, Jetscode1 said:

Are you the SK or the convert?  

Neither, but I'm going to have a hell of a time convincing people that Leelou didn't convert me as I'd be an obvious choice.  All I can say is to take the WIFOM into consideration.  As for SK, yeah, no.  When I can kill, I kill people to silence them....especially people that either vote me or post too much (or are named 80).  Had I been killing people this game, I can promise you it would be half the pages it is, heh.

[Verbal]

GTH for me is Beaver and JC for my top 2.  If there's another one, I have no ******* idea.

[Beaver]

55 minutes ago, Verbal said:

Wait, you didn't like that I voted for 80, but then you say you would have voted for him?  Seriously?

 

 

I absolutely put in effort before the weekend, but yesterday was more of a catchup day after missing the weekend.  I was on Leelou early on (right), and a little bit of Nyn (wrong), and then Hess (right) and JC (unknown).  So yeah, I've been scumhunting....you're just remembering me not being around recently and that recency bias is contorting your view of me.  I'm playing, and I've been active and putting in effort.

I didn't like that fact that you posted a vote, immediately saw that Jif was voting 80 and then switched.

[Beaver]

57 minutes ago, AVM said:

More notes:

• As mentioned to JiF...no Beaver on Leelou train. Almost looks like cult/SK have targeted that train to pick off, which seems like a big deal..but a lot of players not on that train still alive
• JC, Verb, Boozer, Stark, Beaver on exclusively town trains (but limited sample size, only Leelous train)

 

You need a little context on the Leelou vote though.  That was on a Saturday and I wasn't even around.  Neither were a few others.  Look that all that had votes that day and how many were still alive.

[Beaver]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

I think the Mason should reveal...

 

I don't.  Enough with the reveals.   

[DPR]

9 Players left

1 Sk

1 Recruit

1 (possibly 2) Mason(s)

2 Town Claims (Bookie and Restless Spirit...) 

3 or 4 more players

***

No VT's yet

Lots of negative utility town roles. 

2 Investigative roles claimed. Drums was vetted. Stark's is not. 

3 killing factions - Day and Night kills posted. 

***

Boozer did his weird edit thing and has not come back to discuss it despite my repeated asking him to do so. This is his 2nd game. 

Stark didn't die last night, and JiF pointed out he didn't seem worried about it (did not call for a Doc protect) despite being the only detailed town claim with an investigative role possibility. 

Verb has been low volume, but his content has been consistent with town play.

JC has lurked and offered very little in the way of game-related content. He's been caught multiple times not paying attention to the game. IMO this is consistent with having a role like SK where you don't really need to "play" - it benefits you more not to. The SK kills have been smart, OG players. Barry, the Mason, was suspicious of him. 

Beaver has posted some good things and some bad things. His wife this morning (why he wouldn't make a good scum kill) stands out. His role, Restless Spirit would be a clever fake (As JiF pointed out). He is also a newer player.

Jville has been fairly active and posted game related content. I liked that he questioned my not mentioning Stark as a scum possibility last night and I pressed him to dig deeper - he did and came up with an honest evaluation. If he is scum, he missed a pretty decent opportunity to throw shade at me. 

AVM has played a solid game, posting good content and analysis. As an SK, he's stuck his neck out an awful lot to be analyzed and he's been relaxed. I don't see this as an SK performance. He's a dead ringer for a Leelou/Hess cult recruit, but he's stayed consistent in his play and I tend to believe that he would have been 1 of the 5 failed recruit attempts as there were 3 fails before the first success and 2 more fails before the last success. I figure he had to be among those seven, probably among the first 6 and I'm leaning heavily toward a newer player being that last recruit (with AJ being the 4th pick. Sorry AJ, lol). 

JiF has been all over the place, but that's what a Batman does. if it comes down to endgame, I'd pick him for Sk over the Recruit, but he's played very much out front and been very active for an SK, the opposite of JC. 

As it stands I'm looking at:

Most Likely to be SK - JC with JiF as runner up. 

Most likely to be a Recruit - Boozer with his panicky post last night with Stark as a runner up. 

I'd like to see reveals from JC and Boozer today

 

[32EBoozer]

57 minutes ago, AVM said:

More notes:

• As mentioned to JiF...no Beaver on Leelou train. Almost looks like cult/SK have targeted that train to pick off, which seems like a big deal..but a lot of players not on that train still alive
• JC, Verb, Boozer, Stark, Beaver on exclusively town trains (but limited sample size, only Leelous train)

 

I didn't vote Gata or Lizzie either.

Voted Lee.

Sorry I'm not more available this morning. Meetings all morning. Try and read up when I have the chance. 

I'd like to hear more from Verbal today.

 

The "Edit" was exactly that, and I drew attention to it.... I didn't try to hide it. It is what it is.... a correction to a misread on the role PAC played in the game concerning Barry. 

I'll cjheck back in at 11:30.

 

Boozer