Pat Mahomes projections: Make your predictions

[Jetsfan80]

How do you think Mahomes will get paid, AND how do you think he'll perform for the rest of his career?

I have provided "benchmark" numbers for your convenience.  Given Mahomes' current numbers through 2 years as a starter, this would be the projections for Mahomes' TD and yardage numbers over a 15 -year career:

• TDs:  570 (# 1 all-time)
• Yardage:  70,590 (# 5 all-time)

Projected out over 20 years, he'd shatter the passing yardage record, with 94,120.  

Obviously, you'd need to make your own guess as to whether he can come close to keeping up the pace he's on, will have longevity, etc. 

[Philc1]

Prescott is nowhere near as good and wants $40 mil per so I guess Mahomey gets $50 mil per

[Embrace the Suck]

27 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Prescott is nowhere near as good and wants $40 mil per so I guess Mahomey gets $50 mil per

Yeah, but I think Mahomes knows as great as he is he has a great team around him. If he wants to continue being great with a great team around him he's not going to be able to make 50 million per when the cap is around 200 million. Mahomes seems like an intelligent guy and I think he knows he'll make a lot more by taking a little less than all he can from the team that has made him a household sports name. As it is the Chiefs have the second least cap space currently. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

[jetstream23]

I think he'll be the first QB to surpass the $40M per year number, but given the current uncertainty, potential for the Cap to grow slower in the future years, and the economics of what % of your Cap you really allocate to a single player probably doesn't have him much higher than that $40M number.  Getting his annual comp to start with a "4" is the meaningful part; after that he might be accommodative to the increasingly negative impact it would have on the team's chances to win over the coming years (see Aaron Rodgers the past decade).

[Beerfish]

As the price of a Qb increases the chances for more super bowls decreases.

[Jetsfan80]

28 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

As the price of a Qb increases the chances for more super bowls decreases.

Sure, but if the QB is truly GOAT material, there are still plenty of opportunities for the Chiefs to cash in on titles.  

Everybody has to pay their QB eventually, so all teams are ending up in a similar situation in that regard.  

[Beerfish]

32 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sure, but if the QB is truly GOAT material, there are still plenty of opportunities for the Chiefs to cash in on titles.  

Everybody has to pay their QB eventually, so all teams are ending up in a similar situation in that regard.  

Except brady.

Almost no team has gone on a title run since the massive QB salaries came into effect.

I almost agree with Tom Shane ....almost, in his suggestion that QB cap numbers should be different or outside regular cap.

[JustInFudge]

40-42 80%, 4+ on everything, every single record.

[Jetsfan80]

23 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Except brady.

Almost no team has gone on a title run since the massive QB salaries came into effect.

I almost agree with Tom Shane ....almost, in his suggestion that QB cap numbers should be different or outside regular cap.

Not entirely true.  Only 3 QB's have won a SB on their rookie deals since the CBA adjusted rookie contracts:  Wilson, Flacco and Mahomes.  

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How do you think Mahomes will get paid, AND how do you think he'll perform for the rest of his career?

I have provided "benchmark" numbers for your convenience.  Given Mahomes' current numbers through 2 years as a starter, this would be the projections for Mahomes' TD and yardage numbers over a 15 -year career:

• TDs:  570 (# 1 all-time)
• Yardage:  70,590 (# 5 all-time)

Projected out over 20 years, he'd shatter the passing yardage record, with 94,120.  

Obviously, you'd need to make your own guess as to whether he can come close to keeping up the pace he's on, will have longevity, etc. 

There is no chance whatsoever that he plays 20 years.  I'd wager maybe under 12 years.  Maybe a bit longer if he's very VERY lucky.

He'll finish up well ranked, but he's not going to touch the all-time best in Yards or TD's (IMO).  

Time, health and more will eventually catch him, same as it catches almost everyone.  

[Beerfish]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Not entirely true.  Only 3 QB's have won a SB on their rookie deals since the CBA adjusted rookie contracts:  Wilson, Flacco and Mahomes.  

Brady won a bunch of the others, of course, but he's not the only one.

Who are the teams that won AFTER paying their QB a HUGE deal other than brady?

Wilson, 1 SB  Rogers 1 SB, Flacco 1 SB,  Brees 1SB

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Who are the teams that won AFTER paying their QB a HUGE deal other than brady?

Wilson, 1 SB  Rogers 1 SB, Flacco 1 SB,  Brees 1SB

 

The Broncos and Panthers faced off with Peyon and Cam making big dollars.  Eli Manning wasn't on his rookie deal when he beat the Pats in the 2nd matchup.  And Aaron Rodgers was making big dollars, as was his counterpart, Roethlisberger, when they faced each other.  Matt Ryan had a 28-3 halftime lead on Brady with his big contract, too.

[The Crusher]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

How do you think Mahomes will get paid, AND how do you think he'll perform for the rest of his career?

I have provided "benchmark" numbers for your convenience.  Given Mahomes' current numbers through 2 years as a starter, this would be the projections for Mahomes' TD and yardage numbers over a 15 -year career:

• TDs:  570 (# 1 all-time)
• Yardage:  70,590 (# 5 all-time)

Projected out over 20 years, he'd shatter the passing yardage record, with 94,120.  

Obviously, you'd need to make your own guess as to whether he can come close to keeping up the pace he's on, will have longevity, etc. 

As long as its not more than me don't care.

                                                 -J. Adams

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

There is no chance whatsoever that he plays 20 years.  I'd wager maybe under 12 years.  Maybe a bit longer if he's very VERY lucky.

Why not?  Brady has played 20 years.  Brees 19.  Manning 17.  Rivers, Eli and Ben 16, with 2 of them still active and starting.  Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Stafford show no signs they're close to retirement yet after entering the league in 2005, '08 and '09, respectively. 

Hell, even Alex Smith lasted 14 seasons before finally suffering what looked like a career-ending injury.  And then there's Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has floated around the league since 2005.

I get that the 17-20 year career is not "common" among QBs.  But 15 is more than reasonable.  Why is Mahomes "likely" to only play for 12 or less?   If Jay Cutler can be an NFL starter for 12 years, that shouldn't be a benchmark for how long Mahomes will stick around.  

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Why not?

 

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I get that the 17-20 year career is not "common" among QBs.

Answered your own question.

I honestly don't care enough to debate it, it's all guessing today. 

We'll see in 20 years I guess.....or some of us will.  I'd wager a few of us won't.

[TJ]

Eleventy Billion Dollars per

[Jetsfan80]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

 

Answered your own question.

I honestly don't care enough to debate it, it's all guessing today. 

We'll see in 20 years I guess.....or some of us will.  I'd wager a few of us won't.

No, I didn't.  I answered why 16+ is rare.  And I can understand you not agreeing that he'll have a 15-year career. 

But saying it'll likely be 12, and maybe less?  I don't understand your thought process behind that.  Why would his career last as many years or less than Jay Cutler's?

[rangerous]

i don't know.  i tend to think mahommes is one of those rare guys who really enjoys playing the game but maybe not so fanatical about the game that he'll stay around for more than 10 seasons or so.  so i think he'll reach top 10 or so in the usual metrics but won't stick around to be no. 1.  another factor is just how long reid will be around.  he's getting a bit old and it's pretty obvious he doesn't take care of his body.  we'll see.  i really like the guys game.

[Jet Nut]

13 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No, I didn't.  I answered why 16+ is rare.  And I can understand you not agreeing that he'll have a 15-year career. 

But saying it'll likely be 12, and maybe less?  I don't understand your thought process behind that.  Why would his career last as many years or less than Jay Cutler's?

Rare?

16+ puts your QB at 40 years old, what do we have 2 now and thats met with shock

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Rare?

16+ puts your QB at 40 years old, what do we have 2 now and thats met with shock

There have been 6 who have put up 16+ in this century alone:  Brees, Brady, Peyton, Eli, Roethlisberger and Rivers.  Rodgers is closing in on 16 and even Ryan Fitzpatrick might as well.  I imagine Matt Ryan will hit that number, too.  Stafford has injury concerns so I won't predict him to get to 16.

Further back, there was Testaverde (21), Marino (17), Dave Krieg (17), Favre (16), Elway (16), Moon (16, PLUS 5 seasons prior in the CFL) and Kerry Collins (16), among others.

So yes, rare is an appropriate term.  

What seemed odd was for @Warfish not only to say he doesn't expect Mahomes to make it to 15 years, his best guess was that his career would end up being 12 years or less (the length of Jay Cutler's career).  He didn't explain his thought process behind saying that.  The odds are actually against it being 12 or less for a QB of his caliber.  As talented as Mahomes is, unless you're counting on a significant Alex Smith-like injury, I expect he'll be in the league for a long time. 

It wouldn't require him playing until he's 40 to get into that 14-15 year range, either.  He's only 24 and already has 2 years as a starter under his belt.  He'll have started/been in the league for 14/15 years at the age of 35.

[Jet Nut]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

There have been 6 who have put up 16+ in this century alone:  Brees, Brady, Peyton, Eli, Roethlisberger and Rivers.  Rodgers is closing in on 16 and even Ryan Fitzpatrick might as well.  I imagine Matt Ryan will hit that number, too.  Stafford has injury concerns so I won't predict him to get to 16.

Further back, there was Testaverde (21), Marino (17), Dave Krieg (17), Favre (16), Elway (16), Moon (16, PLUS 5 seasons prior in the CFL) and Kerry Collins (16), among others.

So yes, rare is an appropriate term.  

What seemed odd was for @Warfish not only to say he doesn't expect Mahomes to make it to 15 years, his best guess was that his career would end up being 12 years or less (the length of Jay Cutler's career).  He didn't explain his thought process behind saying that.  The odds are actually against it being 12 or less for a QB of his caliber.  As talented as Mahomes is, unless you're counting on a significant Alex Smith-like injury, I expect he'll be in the league for a long time. 

It wouldn't require him playing until he's 40 to get into that 14-15 year range, either.  He's only 24 and already has 2 years as a starter under his belt.  He'll have started/been in the league for 14/15 years at the age of 35.

Will take an incredible amount to things to play out perfectly.  

Health, obviously

Injuries

The team itself.  

Who would have thought that an Andrew Luck wouldn't last 10 years?

[Jetsfan80]

45 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Will take an incredible amount to things to play out perfectly.  

Health, obviously

Injuries

The team itself.  

Who would have thought that an Andrew Luck wouldn't last 10 years?

 

A lot went wrong for Andrew Luck that doesn't go wrong for other QB's typically, either.  He's also a bright guy, with an Architecture degree from Stanford.  Football wasn't the be-all end-all for him.  It probably isn't for Mahomes, either, but Luck dealt with a lot of injuries and hits that I just don't think Mahomes will have to deal with.  The safety net made it easier for Luck to hang up the cleats once the injuries piled up.

It's never been a better time to be a QB in the NFL.  Wide open passing lanes because of excessive PI calls.  A relatively clean pocket thanks to excessive roughing the passer penalties.  

And Mahomes has everything going for him too.  He has an excellent organization and HC behind him, unlike Luck had in Indianapolis (they're getting their sh*t together of late, but not in enough time to protect their franchise QB).  Reid won't be there forever, of course, but I'm sure he'll have a successor lined up before he goes.  

My best guess is Mahomes will play as long as he wants to in this league.  

[Jet Nut]

19 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

A lot went wrong for Andrew Luck that doesn't go wrong for other QB's typically, either.  He's also a bright guy, with an Architecture degree from Stanford.  Football wasn't the be-all end-all for him.  It probably isn't for Mahomes, either, but Luck dealt with a lot of injuries and hits that I just don't think Mahomes will have to deal with.  The safety net made it easier for Luck to hang up the cleats once the injuries piled up.

It's never been a better time to be a QB in the NFL.  Wide open passing lanes because of excessive PI calls.  A relatively clean pocket thanks to excessive roughing the passer penalties.  

And Mahomes has everything going for him too.  He has an excellent organization and HC behind him, unlike Luck had in Indianapolis (they're getting their sh*t together of late, but not in enough time to protect their franchise QB).  Reid won't be there forever, of course, but I'm sure he'll have a successor lined up before he goes.  

My best guess is Mahomes will play as long as he wants to in this league.  

Point is you never know and after his third season, where Mahomes is, no one thought Luck wouldn't see 10 years.  Not much too complicated happened to Luck.  He tore his shoulder up.  Like Chad and a lot of other QBs.  Could happen to any of them at any moment and why I brought him up.  No one knows but chances are Mahomes doesnt see 16+ seasons.  Too few do for a reason.  Excellent organizations go bad over the course of 16 years.  That excellent organization before this run with Reid didn't win squat since what 1970?  One year after us?  With I would think fewer playoff appearances and wins.  Reids not going to be around for half of those 16+ years.  Again this solid franchise couldn't find a Reid for 50 years but they'll have one waiting in the wings why?  Because?  Again he point is its so hard to put all the pieces in place to have that kind of career i

I do agree its a great time to play QB, they're protected to such a high degree that if you love the game, stay healthy and want to play longer you can.  

[chirorob]

On 7/1/2020 at 10:47 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

How do you think Mahomes will get paid, AND how do you think he'll perform for the rest of his career?

I have provided "benchmark" numbers for your convenience.  Given Mahomes' current numbers through 2 years as a starter, this would be the projections for Mahomes' TD and yardage numbers over a 15 -year career:

• TDs:  570 (# 1 all-time)
• Yardage:  70,590 (# 5 all-time)

Projected out over 20 years, he'd shatter the passing yardage record, with 94,120.  

Obviously, you'd need to make your own guess as to whether he can come close to keeping up the pace he's on, will have longevity, etc. 

Setting the career yardage and TDs always gets easier.   They keep making the rules more in favor of passing and of the offense.   That's not taking away from his talent, it just is how it is.

[Jetsfan80]

On 7/2/2020 at 5:26 PM, chirorob said:

Setting the career yardage and TDs always gets easier.   They keep making the rules more in favor of passing and of the offense.   That's not taking away from his talent, it just is how it is.

For sure, but you also need longevity to get there.  If Mahomes plays until he's 35, he'll likely fall short of the top yardage guys who played into their late 30s/early 40s.