Sam Darnold Discussion Thread: MERGED

[ZachEY]

8 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

How about Week 1 recency bias?

 

I mean, in this very thread one of my first points is about how most of the most vocal people re: Darnold not being the answer have been so long prior to this game.

[jgb]

11 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

If Sam only ends up being "serviceable" then I'll admit that I was 100% wrong on him.  I still feel like he can be a legit FQB who can win us a Superbowl.  And for the record, if I didn't believe that then I wouldn't be defending him.

But why? Not being flippant. I really want to know.

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

How about Week 1 recency bias?

 

Ok, you clearly don't understand how statistics work.  Let me explain. 

What happens is, we use a player's week 1 performance to predict all of his future performances for a given season. In the industry, we call this "extrapolation." Don't get too caught up in the technical lingo, it's really a simple concept. This works because the NFL does not change week to week. It's really a very efficient system.

Oddly, based on this infallible method, it looks like Saquon Barkley will only rush for like 96 yards this year. Seems kinda low, but it's what the math tells us and who are we to question science? 

[DoubleDown]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Darnold "bad games" (below 80 QB Rating):

• 2018, Week 2, vs MIA:  25/41, 334 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 74.6 QB Rating
• 2018, Week 3, @ CLE:  15/31, 169 yds, 0 TD, 2 INTs, 38.2 QB Rating
• 2018, Week 4, @ JAX:  17/34, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 74.0 QB Rating
• 2018, Week 7, vs MIN:  17/42, 206 yds, 1 TD, 3 INTs, 34.4 QB Rating
• 2018, Week 8, @ CHI:  14/29, 153 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 75.8 QB Rating
• 2018, Week 9, @ MIA:  21/39, 229 yds, 0 TD, 4 INTs, 31.8 QB Rating
• 2018, Week 16, @ NE:  16/28, 167 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 74.6 QB Rating
• 2019, Week 7, vs. NE:  11/32, 86 yds, 0 TD, 4 INTs, 3.6 QB Rating
• 2019, Week 8, @ JAX:  21/30, 218 yds, 2 TD, 3 INTs, 73.3 QB Rating
• 2019, Week 13, @ CIN:  28/48, 239 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 71.4 QB Rating
• 2019, Week 17, @ BUF:  23/36, 199 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 76.0 QB Rating
• 2020, Week 1, @ BUF:  21/35, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 75.3 QB Rating

QBR under 80 seems rather arbitrary.

It also takes more that just looking at a QBR number to determine a bad vs. good game.  For example, there was a video posted recently with an in-depth analysis on Darnold's performance in the Week 13 CIN game last year.  The conclusion was that Darnold actually played very well in the face of constant pressure and was let down by his teammates.

[TuscanyTile2]

1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

I'm glad you brought up this play.  Because, I think it actually speaks to my point about the emotional investment in Darnold vs. the reality.  Obviously that is a nice play, and probably more so, a fun one.  Huge celebrations, great TD, etc.  But, that's what Darnold's got.  It's who he is.  It's complete sandlot ball.  There's a reason why trick shot artists never make it in the NBA as well.

What Darnold lacks is the fundamentals.  Sure, every once in a while he'll make a play like the one you're sharing, but that's not actually what makes a franchise QB, even if it makes a highlight reel.  What makes a franchise QB is the boring stuff.  It's the ability to step up in the pocket and avoid the rush, rather than run from it.  It's the ability to scan through progressions and deliver a strike.  It's reading a defense and knowing when to check down.  It's the ability to hit open WRs in stride when they're open.  Darnold lacks in all of this.  However, he does make fun plays from time to time.  As I said the other day, improvisation is a bonus, it cannot be the main skill set.  For Darnold, it is.  It's his only weapon - and it's why he fails so frequently.  Because, more often than not, the sandlot sh*t just doesn't work.

I see your point but I still disagree.  Sam had to run for his life last year (while also dealing mono) so I'm not willing to harshly judge him if he didn't look like Peyton Manning scanning the field last year.  And this past Sunday he made several passes (I feel like at least 3) where the throw was on the money but either the WR dropped the ball or the defender had very tight coverage and broke the play up.  Maybe Sam got a little demoralized after that and then started taking more chances (especially as we fell behind big).

 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, DoubleDown said:

QBR under 80 seems rather arbitrary.

It also takes more that just looking at a QBR number to determine a bad vs. good game.  For example, there was a video posted recently about Darnold's performance in the Week 13 CIN game last year.  The conclusion was that Darnold actually played very well in the face of constant pressure and was let down by his teammates.

Read my note on the Denver game.  He completed 10 passes that day, but threw for 3 TDs.  Is that kind of performance sustainable?  

The bad games that were good and the good games that were bad kind of wash out in the data.  Hence why I also mentioned, earlier in the thread, that Darnold was ranked outside of the top 30 in DVOA his first 2 seasons.  The overall picture is a poor one.  

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Ok, you clearly don't understand how statistics work.  Let me explain. 

What happens is, we use a player's week 1 performance to predict all of his future performances for a given season. In the industry, we call this "extrapolation." Don't get too caught up in the technical lingo, it's really a simple concept. This works because the NFL does not change week to week. It's really a very efficient system.

Oddly, based on this infallible method, it looks like Saquon Barkley will only rush for like 96 yards this year. Seems kinda low, but it's what the math tells us and who are we to question science? 

 

This would be relevant if Darnold had demonstrated it was an outlier performance.  It wasn't.  It was actually fairly common.  12 of his 27 starts in the NFL have been about as bad as his Week 1 performance or worse.  

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I see your point but I still disagree.  Sam had to run for his life last year (while also dealing mono) so I'm not willing to harshly judge him if he didn't look like Peyton Manning scanning the field last year.  And this past Sunday he made several passes (I feel like at least 3) where the throw was on the money but either the WR dropped the ball or the defender had very tight coverage and broke the play up.  Maybe Sam got a little demoralized after that and then started taking more chances (especially as we fell behind big).

He had plenty of time to make throws this past Sunday, and was still missing quite a few open receivers.  

The data has demonstrated that for as bad as Darnold's OL's have been, he also makes matters worse by holding onto the ball too long.  

[TuscanyTile2]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

But why? Not being flippant. I really want to know.

Admittedly it's only one play but the play below is an example (and improvising like this is huge in today's NFL).  Plus he's still only like 23 years old and he hasn't been given any weapons (and I think Gase is a bad HC).  Plus this offseason was shortened due to Covid and Sam also has a brand new OL. 

Once we have some things in place, it should allow the game to slow down for him more.  THEN we can do a more proper evaluation of what we have here.  I still feel like he's got way too much potential to write-off this soon.  

 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

This would be relevant if Darnold had demonstrated it was an outlier performance.  It wasn't.  It was actually fairly common.  12 of his 27 starts in the NFL have been about as bad as his Week 1 performance or worse.  

Fair - but if you think there is even a small chance that he can improve this year overall, I think it's worth it to wait a couple of months before burning the #14 jerseys.  

[Jets Voice of Reason]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

This would be relevant if Darnold had demonstrated it was an outlier performance.  It wasn't.  It was actually fairly common.  12 of his 27 starts in the NFL have been about as bad as his Week 1 performance or worse.  

He has to show something at some point. Sure the team is a dumpster fire for talent and the coaching is bad, but EY’s points are completely valid. He’s not improving fundamentally. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Fair - but if you think there is even a small chance that he can improve this year overall, I think it's worth it to wait a couple of months before burning the #14 jerseys.  

I've said before I'm certainly willing to give him the full 2020 season.  It's not like we have an alternative option anyways.  I'm not going to be one of those fools calling for Flacco.  And this needs to be a redshirt year for Morgan, for sure.  

I'm just not optimistic at all he's going to "prove me wrong" in these final 15 games.  It's far more likely we end up picking around 5th (we'll win a meaningless game or 2 at the end to keep us from a top 3 pick) and be looking at the QB prospects.

[Losmeister]

Just now, slimjasi said:

Fair - but if you think there is even a small chance that he can improve this year overall, I think it's worth it to wait a couple of months before burning the #14 jerseys.  

I'll speak only for myself....   my Chez jersey remained in teh closet 4 yrs then I sent it thru Goodwill.

Nutn to do with burning or hating...    just realzing that our hopes for a perennial top 10 QB aren't realistic now that we've seen some data.

[DoubleDown]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Read my note on the Denver game.  He completed 10 passes that day, but threw for 3 TDs.  Is that kind of performance sustainable?  

The bad games that were good and the good games that were bad kind of wash out in the data.  Hence why I also mentioned, earlier in the thread, that Darnold was ranked outside of the top 30 in DVOA his first 2 seasons.  The overall picture is a poor one.  

You are making the statement that 12 of 27 starts have been "bad" going strictly by an arbitrary measurement of QBR under 80.  I disagree with that premise.  That's my only point.

He needs to play much better than he did in Week 1.  There were plays to be made, and he missed them.  He also made a number of very poor decisions.

[jetstream23]

8 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Ok, you clearly don't understand how statistics work.  Let me explain. 

What happens is, we use a player's week 1 performance to predict all of his future performances for a given season. In the industry, we call this "extrapolation." Don't get too caught up in the technical lingo, it's really a simple concept. This works because the NFL does not change week to week. It's really a very efficient system.

Oddly, based on this infallible method, it looks like Saquon Barkley will only rush for like 96 yards this year. Seems kinda low, but it's what the math tells us and who are we to question science? 

 

DO NOT make me break out my Sam Ficken Meter and show you how he's the #1 Kicker in the NFL after going 3 for 3 on kicks in Week 1.

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He had plenty of time to make throws this past Sunday, and was still missing quite a few open receivers.  

The data has demonstrated that for as bad as Darnold's OL's have been, he also makes matters worse by holding onto the ball too long.  

To me, this is just him trying to make things happen.  If he threw the ball away every time his OL faltered last year, people would've complained at how horrible his stats were.  I like that Sam has the confidence to try to make things happen.  I also like how he seems to have an even-tempered demeanor (at least from what I can tell).  I saw that same demeanor out of Eli, btw.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, DoubleDown said:

You are making the statement that 12 of 27 starts have been "bad" going strictly by an arbitrary measurement of QBR under 80.  I disagree with that premise.  That's my only point.

What would the bar be for you?  A QB Rating of 80 is quite low for QB's in 2020.  30 QB's had a QB Rating of 80+ for the full 2019 season, including the likes of Kyle Allen, Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubusky, and Darnold himself.

I've also used DVOA earlier in the thread.  Anything wrong with that metric?

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

To me, this is just him trying to make things happen.  If he threw the ball away every time his OL faltered last year, people would've complained at how horrible his stats were.  I like that Sam has the confidence to try to make things happen.  I also like how he seems to have an even-tempered demeanor (at least from what I can tell).  I saw that same demeanor out of Eli, btw.

He didn't demonstrate that on Sunday.  The play where he took the sack rather than flinging it up to Crowder was proof positive.  That's a play where he's supposed to look at his best.

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

I'll speak only for myself....   my Chez jersey remained in teh closet 4 yrs then I sent it thru Goodwill.

Nutn to do with burning or hating...    just realzing that our hopes for a perennial top 10 QB aren't realistic now that we've seen some data.

I actually have a policy to not get a player's jersey until he has been with the team for at least 5 years - I only own Chrebet & Mangold Jerseys. (and a Keyshawn Jersey that someone gifted me for Christmas)

[TuscanyTile2]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

I'll speak only for myself....   my Chez jersey remained in teh closet 4 yrs then I sent it thru Goodwill.

Nutn to do with burning or hating...    just realzing that our hopes for a perennial top 10 QB aren't realistic now that we've seen some data.

It's funny because, overall, I think 'Chez stunk.  But I absolutely have to admit that he played his best football in the playoffs.  So strange. 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

It's funny because, overall, I think 'Chez stunk.  But I absolutely have to admit that he played his best football in the playoffs.  So strange. 

Playoffs? What's that? 

[DoubleDown]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What would the bar be for you?  A QB Rating of 80 is quite low for QB's in 2020.  30 QB's had a QB Rating of 80+ for the full 2019 season, including the likes of Kyle Allen, Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubusky, and Darnold himself.

I've also used DVOA earlier in the thread.  Anything wrong with that metric?

I wouldn't use QBR at all to determine good vs. bad games.  You need an in-depth analysis of the tape, not just statistics.  I don't know enough about DVOA to comment one way or the other.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I actually have a policy to not get a player's jersey until he has been with the team for at least 5 years - I only own Chrebet & Mangold Jerseys. (and a Keyshawn Jersey that someone gifted me for Christmas)

I wish you had been around to explain this to me when I bought Vilma, Sanchez and Revis jerseys.  

Now I just don't buy jerseys at all.  

[TuscanyTile2]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He didn't demonstrate that on Sunday.  The play where he took the sack rather than flinging it up to Crowder was proof positive.  That's a play where he's supposed to look at his best.

Maybe I'm looking too deeply into this but I feel like he had several drops from his WRs early on and maybe he started to feel like he was out there on his own and started getting sloppy.  It was still week 1, though, in a shortened offseason.  And we have a brand new OL and Sam's best WR is no longer on the team.  Those reasons alone are enough to make me think we shouldn't go overboard about that performance.

[slimjasi]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I wish you had been around to explain this to me when I bought Vilma, Sanchez and Revis jerseys.  

Now I just don't buy jerseys at all.  

Revis was so good here from 09-11, that I can't blame anyone for getting one of those. 

[DoubleDown]

Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

Maybe I'm looking too deeply into this but I feel like he had several drops from his WRs early on and maybe he started to feel like he was out there on his own and started getting sloppy.  It was still week 1 though in a shortened offseason with a brand new OL.  Those reasons alone are enough to make me think we shouldn't get too wrapped up in his play week 1.

The drops and missed throws were happening at about an even rate.  He absolutely has the ability to bounce back.  He needs to do so.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

I wouldn't use QBR at all to determine good vs. bad games.  You need an in-depth analysis of the tape, not just statistics.  I don't know enough about DVOA to comment one way or the other.

DVOA takes a look at each play and, based on context, determines if it was effective relative to what an "average" or "replacement level" player would do in those situations.  It's completely data driven.  Maybe not ideal, but better than the old "eye test".  

If you're relying primarily on the tape, there's no way you can watch Darnold play and determine this is a true franchise QB.  Not a chance.  As @TeddEY pointed out, he's good at making those "sandlot" throws that make you say "Wow!  This kid can play!"  But he doesn't make the "boring plays" and completely lacks consistency.  And that shows up in the data.  Without consistency, a QB can't be a franchise guy.  He's not going to win you playoff games, even with a very good roster around him.  

[Losmeister]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I actually have a policy to not get a player's jersey until he has been with the team for at least 5 years - I only own Chrebet & Mangold Jerseys. (and a Keyshawn Jersey that someone gifted me for Christmas)

Chrebet was my 1st ever,...      I was drunk when I ordered my Chez jersey...

i think it was aftre the Tennessee game where he headbutted the dude atthe goal line for a TD

 

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

I wouldn't use QBR at all to determine good vs. bad games.  You need an in-depth analysis of the tape, not just statistics.  I don't know enough about DVOA to comment one way or the other.

Ok, but just using your eyes, you would admit he has had his share of bad games. I think that is the point. You could quibble forever about exactly how to delineate which games were "bad" and which were somewhat better, but the there would be some non-significant number of bad performances. He's 1 for 1 this year, unfortunately. 

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

Chrebet was my 1st ever,...      I was drunk when I ordered my Chez jersey...

i think it was aftre the Tennessee game where he headbutted the dude atthe goal line for a TD

 

Makes sense. This was a fun time to be a Jet fan. There was so much excitement about the team after that 3-0 start, then the mid-season collapse that made us look dead, then that miraculous run to the title game. Fun times. Feels like half a lifetime ago, already. 

[ZachEY]

17 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I see your point but I still disagree.  Sam had to run for his life last year (while also dealing mono) so I'm not willing to harshly judge him if he didn't look like Peyton Manning scanning the field last year.  And this past Sunday he made several passes (I feel like at least 3) where the throw was on the money but either the WR dropped the ball or the defender had very tight coverage and broke the play up.  Maybe Sam got a little demoralized after that and then started taking more chances (especially as we fell behind big).

 

This is also hyperbolic and again fueled by emotion.  Sam had plenty of opportunities throughout his career to demonstrate the skills mentioned.  Yes, the offensive line was bad, and yes the WRs are bad, but it's not like he never had a chance to throw from the pocket, and it's not like the WRs are never open.  And, some of these issues are of his own making, because he doesn't process like a QB (He has very little experience being one).  But, no one is asking him to be Manning.  He's not, and he never will be.  But, at the regular, old, boring, bread and butter QB stuff, he's not only not Peyton Manning, but he hasn't demonstrated that he's adequate.  Yes, he had some drops, but all QBs do.  Most QBs can rebound from it.  Sam, more rarely makes these plays, so a drop all but guarantees a 3-and-out.  And, no one is saying he never throws an on target pass.  The point is, he throws them too infrequently to be successful at this level.  

[TuscanyTile2]

3 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

The drops and missed throws were happening at about an even rate.  He absolutely has the ability to bounce back.  He needs to do so.

I agree he needs to bounce back.  If he plays 15 more games like he did his first game this year then I'm sure I'll change my mind on him.  I just have faith that he'll play better than that overall this season.  Maybe I'll end up being proven wrong but let's see.

[ZachEY]

22 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

This would be relevant if Darnold had demonstrated it was an outlier performance.  It wasn't.  It was actually fairly common.  12 of his 27 starts in the NFL have been about as bad as his Week 1 performance or worse.  

Thanks for putting a number to this.

Wow.  Nearly half of his games have been complete zeros.

Guys, this is really bad.

[DoubleDown]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

If you're relying primarily on the tape, there's no way you can watch Darnold play and determine this is a true franchise QB.  Not a chance.  As @TeddEY pointed out, he's good at making those "sandlot" throws that make you say "Wow!  This kid can play!"  But he doesn't make the "boring plays" and completely lacks consistency.  And that shows up in the data.  Without consistency, a QB can't be a franchise guy.  He's not going to win you playoff games, even with a very good roster around him.  

He's had his share of very good games: rookie year against Indy and GB.  He went punch for punch with two of the best quarterbacks in the league with a much weaker supporting cast.  Last year against Dallas.

I agree he needs to get much more consistent.  But to write off his potential to be a franchise quarterback when analyzing what he has done with the team around him is premature.  Like I said, I'm giving him the rest of the season to answer that question.  If he falters and the Jets are in position to draft another franchise quarterback, they absolutely should do so.

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Ok, but just using your eyes, you would admit he has had his share of bad games. I think that is the point. You could quibble forever about exactly how to delineate which games were "bad" and which were somewhat better, but the there would be some non-significant number of bad performances. He's 1 for 1 this year, unfortunately. 

Yes, he's had his share of bad games too, last week being a prime example.  He needs to be better, period.  The fact that it happened in year 3 is very concerning.

[ZachEY]

21 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Fair - but if you think there is even a small chance that he can improve this year overall, I think it's worth it to wait a couple of months before burning the #14 jerseys.  

I mean, sure, yeah.  He's going to get the whole season.  We didn't hear reports of James Morgan lighting TC on fire, and Flacco is only here to save a good season if there was an injury.  So, he'll get the whole season.  But, JD and co. need to be heavily scouting the top QBs.  That's the tweet.  That's it.  Nothing we've seen so far means we aren't in the market for a QB.