Zach Wilson: My Scouting

[QB1]

2 hours ago, win4ever said:

I'm not asking about the play (when you mentioned the safety, I got confused), I'm asking what is the difference between that play and interception 3 from Geno?

Kind of hard to tell from the gif, it looks like bad execution to me. The throw went inside where it should have been back shoulder. Not every good decision ends in a good result, I think genos intention was correct 

[maury77]

On 4/7/2021 at 1:23 PM, QB1 said:

I’m skeptical of analysis that focuses on singular plays vs what the player is able to do or does most often. If Wilson routinely shows examples of not locking into receivers and going to through reads often, what exactly is the issue that we are talking about? One of Wilson’s strengths is identifying match ups pre snap and exploiting them, that is a good thing. In one of your examples you critique Wilson for “locking into” and completing a ball to a receiver who has 1 on 1 coverage on the outside, which to me makes no sense. 

@win4ever great post. I know the hours you put into it, but frankly, this is why I'm not around here as often anymore. I literally could have predicted every single response that has been made. 

@QB1 I've got a great Idea. Why don't you post some of your own all 22 video breakdown of Wilson (not highlights, not what Chris SImms said) and you can breakdown for us examples of Wilson refuting the videos that win4ever put together. 

[QB1]

21 minutes ago, maury77 said:

@win4ever great post. I know the hours you put into it, but frankly, this is why I'm not around here as often anymore. I literally could have predicted every single response that has been made. 

@QB1 I've got a great Idea. Why don't you post some of your own all 22 video breakdown of Wilson (not highlights, not what Chris SImms said) and you can breakdown for us examples of Wilson refuting the videos that win4ever put together. 

I feel like I've explained my position pretty thoroughly in this thread. 

[Patriot Killa]

22 hours ago, win4ever said:

He beat up on Massachusetts basically.  He struggled against good opponents.  I'll post something about Utah, Tennessee, USC and San Diego State if I get a chance.  I really wanted Washington but couldn't get film.  If he improved vs San Diego state I'll point it out.  

He had mixed results against pressure but he beat 2019 Tennessee & USC in back to back weeks. Both games went into OT. He had some really good throws in those two games. Displayed a willingness to dirt pass & throw them away on multiple occasions.

Particularly USC.

[CTM]

On 4/8/2021 at 3:31 PM, win4ever said:

The X axis on the graph, rates supporting cast in line with competition.  For example, Alabama's supporting cast would blow the lid of anyone else, but it's compared to the defenses they faced in the SEC.  So the further right on the chart, the better cast you had to your competition.  The further left you go, the worse your cast vs. competition.  The further up you go, the better you did, and the further down you go, the worse you did. 

It just says cast, I know QBase uses or used teammates who would be drafted early as supporting cast. They also adjust for defenses faced 2 different things. You are sayig this combines it and calls it supporting cast?

[win4ever]

20 hours ago, CTM said:

It just says cast, I know QBase uses or used teammates who would be drafted early as supporting cast. They also adjust for defenses faced 2 different things. You are sayig this combines it and calls it supporting cast?

From my understanding, the cast comes from PFF ratings of supporting casts, but I don't have access to PFF.  The way it was explained to me was that it takes supporting cast vs defense (because there's no way anyone is touching Alabama in supporting cast) and uses that as the basis for the axis.  

[win4ever]

On 4/9/2021 at 12:54 AM, QB1 said:

Kind of hard to tell from the gif, it looks like bad execution to me. The throw went inside where it should have been back shoulder. Not every good decision ends in a good result, I think genos intention was correct 

I think the intention is the same in both plays, but in the NFL, the CB turns around, at which point it's a dead play.  In college, the CB is holding on for dear life not looking at the ball, so it's a safe throw.  It's the same with these outside throws where he can get away with it in college, but can't do it consistently in college, and that is where he needs to adjust.  I'm not sure he can.  

[CTM]

6 minutes ago, win4ever said:

From my understanding, the cast comes from PFF ratings of supporting casts, but I don't have access to PFF.  The way it was explained to me was that it takes supporting cast vs defense (because there's no way anyone is touching Alabama in supporting cast) and uses that as the basis for the axis.  

Got it. It reads like some.metric of projected draft positions of offensive teammates 

[win4ever]

On 4/9/2021 at 12:08 PM, maury77 said:

@win4ever great post. I know the hours you put into it, but frankly, this is why I'm not around here as often anymore. I literally could have predicted every single response that has been made. 

@QB1 I've got a great Idea. Why don't you post some of your own all 22 video breakdown of Wilson (not highlights, not what Chris SImms said) and you can breakdown for us examples of Wilson refuting the videos that win4ever put together. 

Thanks, yeah, spent a bunch of time on Wilson, and I'm not even sure why, lol.  Like an addict that can't step away.  I'm going to try and finish it off with the 2019 tapes next week.  

Yeah, I'd love to hear breakdowns of any of the gifs if I'm wrong.  I'm not infallible by any means, and if we do pick him, I'd love to be wrong.  

 

[win4ever]

1 minute ago, CTM said:

Got it. It reads like some.metric of projected draft positions of offensive teammates 

Yeah it wasn't super clear, because I went down the rabbit hole on the first source cfbscrapeR or something, and it's basically a site that has a ton of statistics on production, but not necessarily ratings.  But the site is set up like an overload of information, and it would take me way too long to dissect it, and even then I think the supporting cast comes from PFF which I don't even have access to.  

If we do pick Fields, I'll probably spend some time on the stats.  

[nycdan]

33 minutes ago, win4ever said:

Yeah it wasn't super clear, because I went down the rabbit hole on the first source cfbscrapeR or something, and it's basically a site that has a ton of statistics on production, but not necessarily ratings.  But the site is set up like an overload of information, and it would take me way too long to dissect it, and even then I think the supporting cast comes from PFF which I don't even have access to.  

If we do pick Fields, I'll probably spend some time on the stats.  

If we do pick Fields, there are a few members here who will probably spend some time on crystal meth and Jack Daniels.

[win4ever]

Zach Wilson Elite NFL Throws

Part 1:  https://jetsfilmreview.com/2021/04/10/zach-wilson-elite-nfl-throws-part-1/

Part 2: https://jetsfilmreview.com/2021/04/10/zach-wilson-elite-nfl-throws-part-2/

Edited to Right Link

 

[win4ever]

23 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

He had mixed results against pressure but he beat 2019 Tennessee & USC in back to back weeks. Both games went into OT. He had some really good throws in those two games. Displayed a willingness to dirt pass & throw them away on multiple occasions.

Particularly USC.

I haven't really gone deep into those games yet, because I just can't seem to find time and energy simultaneously lol.  I think I'm done with the 2020 one, the only other categories that I haven't written yet are Bad Reads and Pocket Integrity.  I think I beat down on pocket integrity enough that it doesn't need a separate article.  Bad reads, I feel like is mostly covered, unless someone wants it specifically.  

Just posted elite throws.   

Have:  Bad Read Good Throw, Good Read Bad Throw, Interception/Intercept able, and Under Pressure that are done, just need to proofread and publish.  Not sure if anyone needs bad reads to be added on top of it.   

[win4ever]

29 minutes ago, nycdan said:

If we do pick Fields, there are a few members here who will probably spend some time on crystal meth and Jack Daniels.

Lol. 

If we pick Fields, I might spend too much time breaking down why it's a good pick.  But there would be more time, so it can be done slowly.  

[win4ever]

Zach Wilson:

Good Read - Bad Throw:  https://jetsfilmreview.com/2021/04/10/zach-wilson-good-read-bad-throw/

Bad Read - Good Throw:  https://jetsfilmreview.com/2021/04/10/zach-wilson-bad-read-good-throw/

Corrected Link

 

[nycdan]

1 hour ago, win4ever said:

Zach Wilson Elite NFL Throws

Part 1:  https://wordpress.com/post/jetsfilmreview.com/103

Part 2: https://wordpress.com/post/jetsfilmreview.com/117

 

Wordpress is asking for a login.

[win4ever]

6 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Wordpress is asking for a login.

Oh, I think I posted my editor link.  I'll correct it

[Patriot Killa]

1 hour ago, win4ever said:

Zach Wilson:

Good Read - Bad Throw:  https://jetsfilmreview.com/2021/04/10/zach-wilson-good-read-bad-throw/

Bad Read - Good Throw:  https://jetsfilmreview.com/2021/04/10/zach-wilson-bad-read-good-throw/

Corrected Link

 

I like how you’re categorizing them. It definitely helps as the reader.

[maury77]

"

"This is a 3^rd and 8 play against UTSA, in a surprisingly close game (8 point lead for BYU) in the 4^th quarter.  The defense brings a blitz against Wilson, and he throws a jump ball prayer to his receiver, who makes a good adjustment and makes the catch. 

The read on this reminds me very much of Bryce Petty’s first action against the Colts, where he kept throwing up lobs to Robby Anderson because that was the Baylor system.  Essentially, if facing blitz, find the one-on-one matchup on a go route.  Well, it’s not really a go route here, but there is no hot read from Wilson.  He has his quick outlet pass to the running back wide open, as well a mesh concept that provides some opportunity as well.  However, as soon as Wilson sees the pressure, he takes this lob pass off of his back foot. 

The pass itself is good because the function of it is give your offensive player a chance to make a play on the ball.  He’s very well covered on the play, so this acts as a back shoulder pass, where the onus is on the receiver to adjust to the pass better than the defender.  Therefore, for the intended functionality of the play, this is a great throw. 

Once again, this harkens back to the conversation about where Wilson derives his confidence from.  Is it belief in his superior ability, or belief in the inferior ability of the defense?  Does he take this chance in the NFL?  That’s not an easy question to answer, try as anyone might.  He needs to learn to throw to his hot read or understand the weakness of a defense in such a blitz situation, given the route combinations. "

I'm going to disagree with you on the bolded part. When he hits the top of his drop and starts to throw, the WR is even with the CB. This should have been thrown further ahead of the WR, who may have scored a TD with a better thrown ball. If you throw a back should jump ball and the CB isn't ahead of the WR, you are asking for an INT from a better CB. 

[ryu79]

We are in a great position to elect from amongst several great prospects. I truly hope that our fans will rally around whoever the pick is at 2.

You can find fault with any one's film if you keep looking and pre-draft entrenchment on players the past few years have just led to weekly passive aggressive threads about whether players are busts or the best ever... 

Whether it's Fields or Wilson (or I guess Lawrence), they all have stuff they are good at and stuff they can get better at and who we surround them with and how we coach them will probably be just as important in the long run, as we've sadly learned the past several decades...

I loved Fields in the cfp and would be fine with him. Love what I see about Wilson in the game cutups I've seen online and from his bowl game. Ironically, Lawrence seems so much closer to both these guys than I guess popular opinion follows... But i hope we get one that fits with what Lafleur wants to do and that Lafleur has a clue...

[win4ever]

6 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

I like how you’re categorizing them. It definitely helps as the reader.

Thanks!

[win4ever]

6 hours ago, maury77 said:

"

"This is a 3^rd and 8 play against UTSA, in a surprisingly close game (8 point lead for BYU) in the 4^th quarter.  The defense brings a blitz against Wilson, and he throws a jump ball prayer to his receiver, who makes a good adjustment and makes the catch. 

The read on this reminds me very much of Bryce Petty’s first action against the Colts, where he kept throwing up lobs to Robby Anderson because that was the Baylor system.  Essentially, if facing blitz, find the one-on-one matchup on a go route.  Well, it’s not really a go route here, but there is no hot read from Wilson.  He has his quick outlet pass to the running back wide open, as well a mesh concept that provides some opportunity as well.  However, as soon as Wilson sees the pressure, he takes this lob pass off of his back foot. 

The pass itself is good because the function of it is give your offensive player a chance to make a play on the ball.  He’s very well covered on the play, so this acts as a back shoulder pass, where the onus is on the receiver to adjust to the pass better than the defender.  Therefore, for the intended functionality of the play, this is a great throw. 

Once again, this harkens back to the conversation about where Wilson derives his confidence from.  Is it belief in his superior ability, or belief in the inferior ability of the defense?  Does he take this chance in the NFL?  That’s not an easy question to answer, try as anyone might.  He needs to learn to throw to his hot read or understand the weakness of a defense in such a blitz situation, given the route combinations. "

I'm going to disagree with you on the bolded part. When he hits the top of his drop and starts to throw, the WR is even with the CB. This should have been thrown further ahead of the WR, who may have scored a TD with a better thrown ball. If you throw a back should jump ball and the CB isn't ahead of the WR, you are asking for an INT from a better CB. 

I agree to the extent that the ideal throw is leading him forward, but it sort of fits into the "bad read" aspect because he's essentially picking the best covered receiver.  However, if we are going with just the pure pass, the back shoulder still works here.  He does get even when he releases it, but I'm not sure how well he actually picks it up.  It seems like one of those "oh crap, pressure, throw it up" passes, but for that pass he does still make the good throw.  The ball ends up placed right behind where the CB eventually runs to, so it would have been a great play by the CB if he turned around in time if the guy got past him.  However, it's a bad decision to throw this pass when he gets pressure. 

I love the conversation on this one, because it kinda brings something that I keep thinking about while I'm watching him.  How much of his production and confidence is derived from the inferior competition?  If that is Newsome in North Western, do you still take that shot?  

When talking about drafting QBs, I argue for a No. 1 receiver because you need a bad read eliminator.  A Hopkins, Allen, Diggs, or Hill/Kelce.  One of those, you make a bad read, but can still take a shot to your guy because even when he's covered, he's open types.  I think a big reason why Herbert was a monster was because he had Allen, Williams who has a massive catch radius, and a top tier TE in Henry when he was healthy.  If he made a bad read, it didn't matter because his guys could make contested catches.  It builds confidence.  

Well, how much confidence does the schedule here produce for Wilson?  I can't tell, sort of a "Egg or Chicken come first?" dilemma.  He seems to gravitate to field side outside throws because the competition doesn't have the talent to stop it.  

[win4ever]

5 hours ago, ryu79 said:

We are in a great position to elect from amongst several great prospects. I truly hope that our fans will rally around whoever the pick is at 2.

You can find fault with any one's film if you keep looking and pre-draft entrenchment on players the past few years have just led to weekly passive aggressive threads about whether players are busts or the best ever... 

Whether it's Fields or Wilson (or I guess Lawrence), they all have stuff they are good at and stuff they can get better at and who we surround them with and how we coach them will probably be just as important in the long run, as we've sadly learned the past several decades...

I loved Fields in the cfp and would be fine with him. Love what I see about Wilson in the game cutups I've seen online and from his bowl game. Ironically, Lawrence seems so much closer to both these guys than I guess popular opinion follows... But i hope we get one that fits with what Lafleur wants to do and that Lafleur has a clue...

I think most of us will rally around Wilson if he's the pick, or Fields.  It might be a blood bath if it's like Jones or Lance.  

I agree with the notion that the best QB is going to be the QB that goes to the best situation.  To me, that's why I think this draft needs to focus on OL and adding weapons on offense, because they help accentuate the most important position.  Yes, cornerback is a concern, but I'd rather have the defensive expert in Saleh coach up some guys than spend premium picks there when we need to surround a QB with talent.  I'd love to get a G/T at 23, and maybe another WR at 34.  I think fixing the offense needs to be slanted so that we can properly develop a QB first.  

Lawrence (at least to me and a few others here) doesn't project as the once in a generation type guy.  I love him as a prospect, but there are some glaring concerns with him, that make me wonder about his transition.  

[ryu79]

7 hours ago, win4ever said:

I agree to the extent that the ideal throw is leading him forward, but it sort of fits into the "bad read" aspect because he's essentially picking the best covered receiver.  However, if we are going with just the pure pass, the back shoulder still works here.  He does get even when he releases it, but I'm not sure how well he actually picks it up.  It seems like one of those "oh crap, pressure, throw it up" passes, but for that pass he does still make the good throw.  The ball ends up placed right behind where the CB eventually runs to, so it would have been a great play by the CB if he turned around in time if the guy got past him.  However, it's a bad decision to throw this pass when he gets pressure. 

I love the conversation on this one, because it kinda brings something that I keep thinking about while I'm watching him.  How much of his production and confidence is derived from the inferior competition?  If that is Newsome in North Western, do you still take that shot?  

When talking about drafting QBs, I argue for a No. 1 receiver because you need a bad read eliminator.  A Hopkins, Allen, Diggs, or Hill/Kelce.  One of those, you make a bad read, but can still take a shot to your guy because even when he's covered, he's open types.  I think a big reason why Herbert was a monster was because he had Allen, Williams who has a massive catch radius, and a top tier TE in Henry when he was healthy.  If he made a bad read, it didn't matter because his guys could make contested catches.  It builds confidence.  

Well, how much confidence does the schedule here produce for Wilson?  I can't tell, sort of a "Egg or Chicken come first?" dilemma.  He seems to gravitate to field side outside throws because the competition doesn't have the talent to stop it.  

Certainly inferior competition will help a player look better - but amongst the two main guys we are looking at I think you can argue that Fields benefited just as much (as has been beaten to death by how frequently his first read was open). We can't know how Wilson would have adjusted his decision calculus against better coverage, but his ball placement was solid (esp downfield) and he seems a smart kid. 

After watching a couple of his games last night a habit that worried me more and that I haven't seen here is that he likes to play cat and mouse with the D linemen to create a throwing line - I noticed it more with the 2020 games than 19 ones, maybe because he added a few pounds - but he def takes liberties in traffic on film where I feel nfl d line talent will mean he doesn't escape and is gonna get hammered if he tries to pull the matador on Sundays... 

[Jdub03]

57 minutes ago, ryu79 said:

After watching a couple of his games last night a habit that worried me more and that I haven't seen here is that he likes to play cat and mouse with the D linemen to create a throwing line - I noticed it more with the 2020 games than 19 ones, maybe because he added a few pounds - but he def takes liberties in traffic on film where I feel nfl d line talent will mean he doesn't escape and is gonna get hammered if he tries to pull the matador on Sundays... 

Funny, I was watching cut ups last night too, and this also popped out to me. With him keeping the ball a little lower, I'm hoping he can avoid strip/fumbles, this does concern me though. He likes to do a little leg stab fake then juke.  Even when he runs down field he likes to  consistently do this little cut back to the outside.  He usually slid or got out for the most part.  However he did take a few guys on at times.  Hopefully, he'll be more careful when taking off and not lower his shoulder and try and run over a LB or Safety. He's gonna get lit up at the next level. Although, I must admit I did like seeing him display toughness to take on a few guys on his college tape.

[The Crusher]

On 4/8/2021 at 2:04 AM, win4ever said:

I loved Watson, but that throwing MPH really gave me pause.  He was one where on film, I thought he was QB1, but the physical traits review really pushed him down.  I hated the Hackenberg pick, but because I'm a fan, I talked myself into it after the pick, trying to pick out the positives.  

I definitely respect that, there's absolutely no guarantee I'm right.  I think Fields' athleticism with plus arm strength translates better because it fits the offense better.  I also felt he played within the system better, where the reads went in natural progressions more often (not always).  But my biggest factor is really the competition, I like guys that played better competition or just have that good of a physical tools.  For example, Josh Allen is the closest I've seen to those make a player features in video games because his arm strength plus mobility is ridiculous.  I'm fine with physical traits drafting, which is going to happen with Lance this year.  But I think Fields has the best combination of physical traits plus production.  

Great write up thanks. This post is the reason we swap with SF on draft day. Pick up a tidbit of compensation, they take  Wilson at two, we take Fields at three and your the hero of the day. Thank you, 

[Patriot Killa]

9 hours ago, win4ever said:

If that is Newsome in North Western, do you still take that shot?  

 

I think he does.

[Patriot Killa]

2 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Great write up thanks. This post is the reason we swap with SF on draft day. Pick up a tidbit of compensation, they take  Wilson at two, we take Fields at three and your the hero of the day. Thank you, 

Not happening though.

[The Crusher]

6 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Not happening though.

I know, but I hope so. 

[QB1]

10 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Great write up thanks. This post is the reason we swap with SF on draft day. Pick up a tidbit of compensation, they take  Wilson at two, we take Fields at three and your the hero of the day. Thank you, 

team trying to copy system from offensive genius passes on QB that said offensive genius traded up for twice, yea... that wouldn’t be the dumbest thing this franchise has ever done 

[win4ever]

So I started my 2019 scouting.

It's brutal so far in the Utah game. I'm just going to do it game by game, put it into one long article and break it up so it loads faster. Don't have time to go specifically into categories.

Although the weird thing to me: His reckless in the pocket is much more controlled. He actually maintains pocket integrity more than 2020, which seems like some kind of regression.

I saw the Fields thread got locked. If we pick him, I'll do an in-depth breakdown on him with progressions and the system. I'll also probably start a Go-Fund me after I get fired, focusing on college film during work time lol.


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[win4ever]

Certainly inferior competition will help a player look better - but amongst the two main guys we are looking at I think you can argue that Fields benefited just as much (as has been beaten to death by how frequently his first read was open). We can't know how Wilson would have adjusted his decision calculus against better coverage, but his ball placement was solid (esp downfield) and he seems a smart kid. 
After watching a couple of his games last night a habit that worried me more and that I haven't seen here is that he likes to play cat and mouse with the D linemen to create a throwing line - I noticed it more with the 2020 games than 19 ones, maybe because he added a few pounds - but he def takes liberties in traffic on film where I feel nfl d line talent will mean he doesn't escape and is gonna get hammered if he tries to pull the matador on Sundays... 

I don't know if Fields had better talent in comparison to his competition though. Last year, his 2 and 3 receivers were Hill and Victor, who I think were 7th Rd picks. Kline and Romney I believe are projected higher. Fields does have Olave/Wilson but also faced some top 2 round talent in the secondary.

I think my main issue with the competition is the lack of communication with late movement. The very first play I looked at for Utah last year, they seamlessly switched at late movement. The same exact movement this year threw the competition into chaos.

Yeah I don't really like his pocket presence much, but yeah as you mentioned, at least in 2019 it was better. It's a weird regression, which begets the question, did his confidence rise more from competition being lower or improvement in himself, or somewhere in the middle?

[win4ever]

Funny, I was watching cut ups last night too, and this also popped out to me. With him keeping the ball a little lower, I'm hoping he can avoid strip/fumbles, this does concern me though. He likes to do a little leg stab fake then juke.  Even when he runs down field he likes to  consistently do this little cut back to the outside.  He usually slid or got out for the most part.  However he did take a few guys on at times.  Hopefully, he'll be more careful when taking off and not lower his shoulder and try and run over a LB or Safety. He's gonna get lit up at the next level. Although, I must admit I did like seeing him display toughness to take on a few guys on his college tape.

I saw him slide more in 2019 as well in less games watched. Weird.

[win4ever]

Great write up thanks. This post is the reason we swap with SF on draft day. Pick up a tidbit of compensation, they take  Wilson at two, we take Fields at three and your the hero of the day. Thank you, 

Lol I hope we do, but I doubt it unless Shanahan/Saleh are that close.

[Maxman]

On 4/6/2021 at 5:14 PM, win4ever said:

Ok, so I couldn't post these at JN because they tend to argue against Zach Wilson, which is a concern when the Jets seem locked in on the guy and this is a Jets website.  So, I made wordpress blog to publish it, air out my scouting report.  If the Jets do end up picking Zach Wilson, then I hope I'm completely wrong.  As I've mentioned numerous times, I'm a Fields fan, I think he will translate better to the NFL, but that's merely an opinion.  I have a few more articles I'll write there, and I'll leave a link in this thread.  Would love to hear some feedback.  

 

Hey I feel the need to address the first part. I have never held back an editorial that was critical of the Jets in anyway. If it is fair, that is all we ask. I know what you are doing will be fair, so there is no problem running an opinion article saying that Zach Wilson isn't the guy.

The reason I mentioned being concerned about running these is because you told me this was a 17 part series.  That is different than an editorial or two saying Zach's film isn't great for whatever reason.

A 17 part series, when I am not able to create much content otherwise right now due to a busy work schedule, that would be a concern. Every day a new article saying the guy sucks, when I am not putting out any other content, that is too much.

Always liked your film reviews and I respect your opinion. We just couldn't do a 17 part series on the topic. And honestly that would be the same answer if you raved about the guy.  That is all, thanks.