Possible Trade Partners with QB Needy Teams at #10

[GangGreen Machine]

What do you realistically see happening at 10 if a QB needy team comes calling? Id like to squeeze every last drop out of the Jamal Adams trade.

Here is my mock trade:

Pittsburg Steelers calling for Malik Willis or Matt Corral at #10

Steelers get: Jets 2022 First Round pick (10)  

TOTAL Draft Chart Value: Around 1300 points

Jets Get: Steelers 2022 First Round pick (20) / Steelers 2022 Second Round Pick (52) / Steelers 2023 Fourth Round Pick

TOTAL Draft Chart Value:  Around 1300 points

I would much rather trade out of 4 so we could get a 1st rounder next year but id like to focus on 10 on this thread with the lack of elite QB talent. 

What would your mock trade look like? 

[heymangold]

Yeah I’d do that

[section314]

If there is a guy Pittsburgh really wanted, they would probably call the Giants to get in front of Carolina. In your scenario, that would be a good trade for the Jets, it would be an overpay on Pittsburgh's part throwing in the 2023 pick. 

[#27TheDominator]

Seattle is sitting at 9 and they just moved Wilson.  Seems risky to trade for #10.  Probably 75% of the mocks I have seen have them taking a QB.

[GangGreen Machine]

8 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Seattle is sitting at 9 and they just moved Wilson.  Seems risky to trade for #10.  Probably 75% of the mocks I have seen have them taking a QB.

I would happily trade 4 if someone wants to move in front of Seattle and NYG. 

[Columbia Jet Fan]

4 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Seattle is sitting at 9 and they just moved Wilson.  Seems risky to trade for #10.  Probably 75% of the mocks I have seen have them taking a QB.

I think the issue is trading up ahead of Seattle would be pretty expensive. In fact this was recently said: 

Now Falcons could pick a QB at 8 - and if not I don't see why they wouldn't move back b/c they are in a total rebuild and probably want a first rounder for next year. But maybe 10 and up is where Pittsburgh thinks they don't need to give up a future first. 

Anyway - I would do the deal listed in OP in a heartbeat. I'd want to target Jameson Williams if we did move back - and I'd be prepared  to make a jump ahead of teams like the Saints that may be targeting a WR. Something like the trade to OP - and then move 20 + 69 for 17 + a later pick to even it out. 

That extra second round pick would be a great spot to get a DT/elite RB or a swing tackle or G/T hybrid in a back up role. 

 

[derp]

I could genuinely see Pittsburgh moving to 4 or 5, hopefully they don't discount the chance the Giants go QB and it's 4. First and second both this year and next year or first three picks this year and next year's first probably gets them there. They haven't really hid intentions in the past and definitely seem to like Willis.

I'm not sure the Jets really want to make a pick at 4 and I imagine they want future draft capital. If Douglas is reasonable about what they'd want in return for pick 4 the difference between trade value for the 4th and 5th picks is less than the lowest value pick in that trade. I'd think Pittsburgh would rather move up for the team that took a QB last year than risk the chance that the team that hired a new coaching staff that developed a small school QB with mobility and a big arm doesn't want to develop Willis themselves.

[GangGreen Machine]

14 minutes ago, section314 said:

If there is a guy Pittsburgh really wanted, they would probably call the Giants to get in front of Carolina. In your scenario, that would be a good trade for the Jets, it would be an overpay on Pittsburgh's part throwing in the 2023 pick. 

1.

I would happily trade 4 if it meant a team needed to get out ahead of someone.

I still think someone's QB will be there at 10, in front of Washington. Might not be the first QB off the board, but that's a spot a QB could still go IMO. Pittsburg could get out in front of Houston, Washington, & New Orleans. 

2. Per DraftTek (Depends on the chart you use, I guess) 

#10 has a value of 1300

#20 has a value of 850

#52 has a value of 380

You don't think the jets would ask for some sort of kicker in that scenario? 

[GangGreen Machine]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

I could genuinely see Pittsburgh moving to 4 or 5, hopefully they don't discount the chance the Giants go QB and it's 4. First and second both this year and next year or first three picks this year and next year's first probably gets them there. They haven't really hid intentions in the past and definitely seem to like Willis.

I'm not sure the Jets really want to make a pick at 4 and I imagine they want future draft capital. If Douglas is reasonable about what they'd want in return for pick 4 the difference between trade value for the 4th and 5th picks is less than the lowest value pick in that trade. I'd think Pittsburgh would rather move up for the team that took a QB last year than risk the chance that the team that hired a new coaching staff that developed a small school QB with mobility and a big arm doesn't want to develop Willis themselves.

I hadn't really thought about Seattle and Atlanta in this scenario. Those two could absolutely snipe Willis. If that's who Pittsburg covets, I would happily trade out of 4 for a haul. 

Going back to why trade at #10. I do not see any QB's worthy of the haul it would take to get to the 4th pick. But if teams are desperate enough, the Jets shouldn't object.

I can see Pittsburg going with Rudolph for a year and reassessing QB in 2023 if Willis went top 9. 

[derp]

9 minutes ago, GangGreen Machine said:

I hadn't really thought about Seattle and Atlanta in this scenario. Those two could absolutely snipe Willis. If that's who Pittsburg covets, I would happily trade out of 4 for a haul. 

Going back to why trade at #10. I do not see any QB's worthy of the haul it would take to get to the 4th pick. But if teams are desperate enough, the Jets shouldn't object.

I can see Pittsburg going with Rudolph for a year and reassessing QB in 2023 if Willis went top 9. 

Honestly every team picking 5-9 is a threat (granted the Giants pick twice there). I think QB is different than some other positions in that if someone is your guy and you don’t have one you go get them. As the least QB needy team in the top 10 the Jets are a pretty natural team to try to trade with.

The difference between trading to picks 4 and 10 is probably the Steelers’ second round pick this year, maybe it’s their future first if Douglas is willing to take a really cheap deal for 10. The Bears made a similar trade last year though and gave up their future first. I guess I could see not wanting to trade the future first, but if you’ve got the conviction  on to give it up to move to 10 anyway I’m not really sure you’d avoid giving up the current second to move up to 4 and secure the guy. 

This of course assumes the Steelers really want Willis, but they’ve been aggressive in the past. Trade up for Devin Bush, Minkah Fitzpatrick trade had a future first.

[#27TheDominator]

I get the idea and appreciate the discussion.  In the abstract I like the idea of trading out of 4 for "a haul" but in reality, if it's the Steelers?   20 is an awful long slide.  The value chart used in this thread has #10 @ 1300 and #20 @ 850, but #4 is @ 1800.  That would be the Steelers pick plus the Chargers pick this year.  A 1st next year is not enough IMO.

[GangGreen Machine]

23 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I get the idea and appreciate the discussion.  In the abstract I like the idea of trading out of 4 for "a haul" but in reality, if it's the Steelers?   20 is an awful long slide.  The value chart used in this thread has #10 @ 1300 and #20 @ 850, but #4 is @ 1800.  That would be the Steelers pick plus the Chargers pick this year.  A 1st next year is not enough IMO.

Agreed. I think a franchise like the Steelers would have a hard time giving up that amount of draft capital for 4. Other than the 49ers last year, these types of franchises that are perennial contenders for the playoffs rarely put all their eggs in one basket like that for a rookie, and for good reason. 

Pittsburg will put butts in seats next year without a new shiny rookie QB... The Texans, Saints, Falcons, and Commanders? Not so much.

I like the idea that they stay patient. If their guy is there at 10, ahead of Washington, Houston, and New Orleans, they may strike a deal with the Jets.  

[GangGreen Machine]

SCENARIO #2:

Houston Texans call the Jets about Matt Corral or Kenny Pickett at 10 after drafting Ikem Ekwonu 3rd overall. 

Texans Get: Jets 2022 First Round Pick from SEA (10)

1300 Points Per DraftTek

Jets Get: Texans 2022 First Round Pick from CLE (13) / Texans 2022 Third Round Pick from NO (80)  

1150+190 = 1340 Points Per DraftTek*

* Bidding war for 10 between WAS, NO, and HOU so Houston over pays by a little bit. 

[section314]

4 minutes ago, GangGreen Machine said:

SCENARIO #2:

Houston Texans call the Jets about Matt Corral or Kenny Pickett at 10 after drafting Ikem Ekwonu 3rd overall. 

Texans Get: Jets 2022 First Round Pick from SEA (10)

1300 Points Per DraftTek

Jets Get: Texans 2022 First Round Pick from CLE (13) / Texans 2022 Third Round Pick from NO (80)  

1150+190 = 1340 Points Per DraftTek*

* Bidding war for 10 between WAS, NO, and HOU so Houston over pays by a little bit. 

Davis Mills is light years better than either one of those guys. Your call would be from someone else .The comp would be nice, gives us 2 3rds.

[GangGreen Machine]

4 minutes ago, section314 said:

Davis Mills is light years better than either one of those guys. Your call would be from someone else .The comp would be nice, gives us 2 3rds.

Would the Texans do it for Willis if he slid? Or is Mills better than any QB in this draft for you? 

[derp]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

I get the idea and appreciate the discussion.  In the abstract I like the idea of trading out of 4 for "a haul" but in reality, if it's the Steelers?   20 is an awful long slide.  The value chart used in this thread has #10 @ 1300 and #20 @ 850, but #4 is @ 1800.  That would be the Steelers pick plus the Chargers pick this year.  A 1st next year is not enough IMO.

I guess two things. One is it wouldn’t be a first this year and a first next year but first and second this year plus first and second next year or somewhere thereabouts. Pittsburgh could probably get creative and include veterans too.

The other is in this draft in particular, 4 is kind of no man’s land. It’s 4 versus 20, 52, and the Steelers’ first and second round picks next year that may not sound super appealing but say it’s Travon Walker vs. George Karlaftis plus 52 plus the Steelers’ first and second round picks next year maybe it’s not as bad. The top of the draft is pretty weak and I think that skews things a little.

[GangGreen Machine]

40 minutes ago, derp said:

I guess two things. One is it wouldn’t be a first this year and a first next year but first and second this year plus first and second next year or somewhere thereabouts. Pittsburgh could probably get creative and include veterans too.

The other is in this draft in particular, 4 is kind of no man’s land. It’s 4 versus 20, 52, and the Steelers’ first and second round picks next year that may not sound super appealing but say it’s Travon Walker vs. George Karlaftis plus 52 plus the Steelers’ first and second round picks next year maybe it’s not as bad. The top of the draft is pretty weak and I think that skews things a little.

If Kayvon and Hutch are gone I hope someone comes calling at 4. Otherwise we really are in no mans land.

The only other guy I can live with at 4 is sauce.

Neal or Icky wouldn’t disappoint but that would mean Fant or becton would be the odd man out. At least you can shuffle players in and out on DL. Not so much in OL. 

[section314]

1 hour ago, GangGreen Machine said:

Would the Texans do it for Willis if he slid? Or is Mills better than any QB in this draft for you? 

Yes. If Mills had returned last year, many feel he would be the # 1 pick this year.

[GangGreen Machine]

4 minutes ago, section314 said:

Yes. If Mills had returned last year, many feel he would be the # 1 pick this year.

Interesting insight.

Do you feel there are any suitable trade partners at 10? 

[section314]

1 hour ago, GangGreen Machine said:

Interesting insight.

Do you feel there are any suitable trade partners at 10? 

It doesn’t have to be for a QB. Somebody may want an Edge, WR OT. Depends on how each teams boards are. One thing to think about….KC and GB both need to restock their WR room. They have a plethora of picks, and may try to be creative to move up if a guy they would love is there.

[SR24]

I’d love to trade with Pitt but I’d want Claypool or Dionte Johnson in a trade with them. Jets will likely miss 2-3 WRs in order to help Pitt get a QB. Gotta pay to come up to the top 10.

[GangGreen Machine]

 

46 minutes ago, SR24 said:

I’d love to trade with Pitt but I’d want Claypool or Dionte Johnson in a trade with them. Jets will likely miss 2-3 WRs in order to help Pitt get a QB. Gotta pay to come up to the top 10.

What would the specifics of your wr trade be? 

[Fantasy Island]

7 hours ago, GangGreen Machine said:

What do you realistically see happening at 10 if a QB needy team comes calling? Id like to squeeze every last drop out of the Jamal Adams trade.

Here is my mock trade:

Pittsburg Steelers calling for Malik Willis or Matt Corral at #10

Steelers get: Jets 2022 First Round pick (10)  

TOTAL Draft Chart Value: Around 1300 points

Jets Get: Steelers 2022 First Round pick (20) / Steelers 2022 Second Round Pick (52) / Steelers 2023 Fourth Round Pick

TOTAL Draft Chart Value:  Around 1300 points

I would much rather trade out of 4 so we could get a 1st rounder next year but id like to focus on 10 on this thread with the lack of elite QB talent. 

What would your mock trade look like? 

WTF?  We are a QB needy team!

[GangGreen Machine]

4 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

WTF?  We are a QB needy team!

I guess we can stop talking about it then, huh? 

[SR24]

1 hour ago, GangGreen Machine said:

 

What would the specifics of your wr trade be? 

I'd trade them #10 and #117 for #20, #52 and Claypool. Claypool has some baggage but he's still only 23, is controllable and has proven he can play at the NFL level. If I am helping a team in my conference potentially draft their franchise QB, they're going to help me give my QB a weapon. I don't need more picks I need players that can produce on the field 

Point value of picks  traded by NYJ- 1372

Point value of picks traded by Pitt- 1230+ whatever value on Claypool. 

[jetstream23]

Just a reminder that there's no rule saying you HAVE TO get the full value for the pick according to the standard chart.  In a relatively "flat Draft" where there may not be as big of a talent drop between say 4 and 15 this year as there was last year, JD could discount the pick a little if he really wants to move out of that spot.  In fact, based on the talent each year I believe teams actually modify the point values for each pick.  For example, in previous years with a really loaded Top 10 that includes 3 or 4 QBs it might take multiple 1st round picks to move up towards the very top.  This year just doesn't seem like that will be the case.  No franchise QBs, no truly elite players of any kind quite honestly.  Aidan Hutchinson is good and will probably go 1st.... he likely wouldn't be a Top 3 pick in any of the recent Drafts and he's not a prospect like Nick Bosa or Chase Young, etc.

[Chrebetfan80]

19 hours ago, derp said:

I could genuinely see Pittsburgh moving to 4 or 5, hopefully they don't discount the chance the Giants go QB and it's 4. First and second both this year and next year or first three picks this year and next year's first probably gets them there. They haven't really hid intentions in the past and definitely seem to like Willis.

I'm not sure the Jets really want to make a pick at 4 and I imagine they want future draft capital. If Douglas is reasonable about what they'd want in return for pick 4 the difference between trade value for the 4th and 5th picks is less than the lowest value pick in that trade. I'd think Pittsburgh would rather move up for the team that took a QB last year than risk the chance that the team that hired a new coaching staff that developed a small school QB with mobility and a big arm doesn't want to develop Willis themselves.

could the giants go QB? sure. Everything i have heard there is they want to move down after selecting an OL and add a 1st next year in the event they want to move up for a QB in a better QB draft.  

They want the flexibility for next year with Young and Stroud. 

This is why I have been saying for a while now the Giants are the biggest threat for the Jets being able to facilitate a trade. The giants are keenly focused on two players this draft so far that I've heard consistently.  Thibs and Ekwonu.  They are in love with both, and if they dont trade out will most likely be selecting OL/EDGE at 5/7 in no particular order.  Can it all change?  Sure, but thats been pretty consistent messaging from everywhere all offseason.  That and their extreme desire to add draft capital for next year to move up and take a QB if Jones doesnt work out this year. 

I think JD is going to value the pick at 4 and if a team wants to move up, he's going to try to hold out for as much as he can.  Where I think other teams like the giants will take less just to make sure the 1st next year is in the deal. Can i be wrong? absolutely, im wrong a bunch, but this is just the feeling im getting so far.  

[nycdan]

17 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

could the giants go QB? sure. Everything i have heard there is they want to move down after selecting an OL and add a 1st next year in the event they want to move up for a QB in a better QB draft.  

They want the flexibility for next year with Young and Stroud. 

This is why I have been saying for a while now the Giants are the biggest threat for the Jets being able to facilitate a trade. The giants are keenly focused on two players this draft so far that I've heard consistently.  Thibs and Ekwonu.  They are in love with both, and if they dont trade out will most likely be selecting OL/EDGE at 5/7 in no particular order.  Can it all change?  Sure, but thats been pretty consistent messaging from everywhere all offseason.  That and their extreme desire to add draft capital for next year to move up and take a QB if Jones doesnt work out this year. 

I think JD is going to value the pick at 4 and if a team wants to move up, he's going to try to hold out for as much as he can.  Where I think other teams like the giants will take less just to make sure the 1st next year is in the deal. Can i be wrong? absolutely, im wrong a bunch, but this is just the feeling im getting so far.  

The hope (long shot) is that more than one team is looking to move up for Willis.  If two teams are contending and both know it, going up to 5 won't be enough as the other could go up to 4.  Of course then 3 comes into play and so on.  The only real effect is that those trades likely wouldn't happen until draft day when some team is on the clock.  Would CAR be willing to gamble that the Giants won't trade out of 5 ahead of them, or that another team (ATL) won't move up to 4 to leapfrog them?  In the right circumstances, a trade-down to 6, 8 or 9 - maybe even 11, seems possible, albeit unlikely.  

The thing to remember is that if there were one or two great QB prospects in this draft, JAX and possibly HOU would be taking the trade-ups for those players, not us.  Of course it would mean that we'd get a better choice of players at 4, but the fact that Willis and Pickens are good, but not 'generational', might work in our favor.

[Chrebetfan80]

12 minutes ago, nycdan said:

The hope (long shot) is that more than one team is looking to move up for Willis.  If two teams are contending and both know it, going up to 5 won't be enough as the other could go up to 4.  Of course then 3 comes into play and so on.  The only real effect is that those trades likely wouldn't happen until draft day when some team is on the clock.  Would CAR be willing to gamble that the Giants won't trade out of 5 ahead of them, or that another team (ATL) won't move up to 4 to leapfrog them?  In the right circumstances, a trade-down to 6, 8 or 9 - maybe even 11, seems possible, albeit unlikely.  

The thing to remember is that if there were one or two great QB prospects in this draft, JAX and possibly HOU would be taking the trade-ups for those players, not us.  Of course it would mean that we'd get a better choice of players at 4, but the fact that Willis and Pickens are good, but not 'generational', might work in our favor.

The only hope really is if CAR and ATL get QB hungry and one of them calls the jets so that both arent competing with offers to the giants at 5.  It's possible like you said but just feels a little bit like a long shot.  I havent really heard alot about CAR and this qb market in the draft.  I know ATL is doing their homework for sure, so we'll see how that plays out. A lot of industry projections ive heard seem to indicate they think the Giants will execute a trade, but its going to be interesting as you said since there is a chance they try to deal with the jets at 4 rather than get mixed up with a giants team that is also open for buisness. 

[derp]

40 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

could the giants go QB? sure. Everything i have heard there is they want to move down after selecting an OL and add a 1st next year in the event they want to move up for a QB in a better QB draft.  

They want the flexibility for next year with Young and Stroud. 

This is why I have been saying for a while now the Giants are the biggest threat for the Jets being able to facilitate a trade. The giants are keenly focused on two players this draft so far that I've heard consistently.  Thibs and Ekwonu.  They are in love with both, and if they dont trade out will most likely be selecting OL/EDGE at 5/7 in no particular order.  Can it all change?  Sure, but thats been pretty consistent messaging from everywhere all offseason.  That and their extreme desire to add draft capital for next year to move up and take a QB if Jones doesnt work out this year. 

I think JD is going to value the pick at 4 and if a team wants to move up, he's going to try to hold out for as much as he can.  Where I think other teams like the giants will take less just to make sure the 1st next year is in the deal. Can i be wrong? absolutely, im wrong a bunch, but this is just the feeling im getting so far.  

Absolutely possible and it’s fun to get different perspectives. I guess if I am a team that loves Willis enough to trade a future 1 to acquire him, I want to be confident I can secure him. And even if I’m pretty sure the Giants pass, there’s a little lingering doubt. If the Giants want Willis it’s in their best interest to be very quiet about it, and it is easy to connect the dots there. The scenario you outlined is entirely reasonable too though.

I do wonder how much Douglas values 4 though I’m sure your intel is solid. Hutchinson will be long gone and everyone else beyond the OL is in a glob between 4 and 10. They may love one or two of those guys but those guys could also be off the board. It is different if they’d take Thibodeaux there. I kind of suspect it’s Hutchinson - gap - Walker - gap - Gardner and if the first two are off the board, which seems reasonable, probably can get someone in a similar tier at 10 too. And I imagine he wants the future 1 too, flexibility is good.

I’d also think the Panthers sitting at 6 with needs are OL and QB would complicate both the Giants trading 5 and a Willis team wanting to wait until 7. And perhaps Atlanta and Seattle are bigger threats but I’d worry the Giants would rather move down 1-2 spots if either of those teams is interested in Willis. Though your point about the future 1 is well taken.

[derp]

1 minute ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

The only hope really is if CAR and ATL get QB hungry and one of them calls the jets so that both arent competing with offers to the giants at 5.  It's possible like you said but just feels a little bit like a long shot.  I havent really heard alot about CAR and this qb market in the draft.  I know ATL is doing their homework for sure, so we'll see how that plays out. A lot of industry projections ive heard seem to indicate they think the Giants will execute a trade, but its going to be interesting as you said since there is a chance they try to deal with the jets at 4 rather than get mixed up with a giants team that is also open for buisness. 

What about Seattle? Lots of ammo after the Wilson trade.

[nycdan]

1 hour ago, derp said:

What about Seattle? Lots of ammo after the Wilson trade.

 

A trade that flips 9 for 4 and gets us Metcalf, even if we give a little more back, would be a pipe dream but oh so nice.