When "learning to win" / anti-tanking goes wrong

[Jetsfan80]

DISCLAIMER:  No, this is not a thread about tanking THIS year.  The difference between 8-9 and 7-10 is negligible.  We're talking REAL, season-long-over kind of tanking here.  0-17  vs 2-15 kind of tanking.  

 

I'd say that perhaps the most damaging aspect of the Woody Johnson era has been the policy (it would seem) to prefer 5 or 6-win seasons in a lost year over "bottoming out" for draft position purposes.  And we're paying for it with every regime. 

A reminder of the history below (note:  You might quibble over how helpful tanking would have been in any given year, and whether we would have been interested in some of these players in the first place, but in totality, its hard to argue we haven't missed out on elite draft capital/talent over the years):

 

2007

• Sitting at 3-12, the Jets won their Week 17 game against the Chiefs to finish 4-12 and end up with the # 6 pick.  A loss would have vaulted the Jets into a top-3 pick slot
• Selected:  DE Vernon Gholston
• Missed out on:  QB Matt Ryan

2014

• The 2-11 Jets, with lame duck HC Rex Ryan, won 2 of their final 3, thus missing out on a top-2 pick
• Selected:  DT Leonard Williams
• Missed out on:  Large package of picks (Tennessee reportedly strongly considered moving out of # 2 before selecting Mariota)

2019

• The 4-8 Jets won 3 of their final 4 games of the season to finish 7-9, costing them a top-6 pick
• Selected:  LT Mekhi Becton
• Missed out on:  QB Justin Herbert; OT Jedrick Wills

 

We also won 2 meaningless December games in 2005, but on this occasion we ended up getting a franchise LT out of the deal (Ferguson). 

And a December win in 2018 cost the Jets Nick Bosa in the '19 draft, though Quinnen Williams has gained a lot of ground on Bosa from a career perspective this season.

But the most egregious "failed tanking" effort was of course...

2020

• The 0-13 Jets won back-to-back games in Weeks 15 & 16 with lame duck HC Adam Gase, costing them the # 1 pick
• Selected:  QB Zach Wilson
• Missed out on:  QB Trevor Lawrence

 

There's no getting around this one if you're in the "anti-tanking" group, unless you're simply stubborn and obtuse.  Lawrence looks like the real deal.  Since Week 9 this year, there's arguably been no better QB in the NFL.  The Year 2 leap has happened for him, despite entering a disastrous situation with Urban Meyer in his rookie year.

This may well go down as a Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf situation, and it all could have been avoided had the Jets done what Woody Johnson seemingly refuses to do time and again:  Fire a HC midseason and tank properly.  

[Jetsfan80]

@Gastineau Lives

[Larz]

Man kids today.  When I was a kid the jets passed on Dan Marino now they crying about Trevor Lawrence. Smdh

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Larz said:

Man kids today.  When I was a kid the jets passed on Dan Marino now they crying about Trevor Lawrence. Smdh

The Jets had the opportunity to draft Marino but passed.  The Jets DIDN'T have the opportunity to draft Lawrence because of an anti-tanking policy, which seems to come from the ownership level.

Bit of a different issue here.  

[Irish Jet]

3 minutes ago, Larz said:

Man kids today.  When I was a kid the jets passed on Dan Marino now they crying about Trevor Lawrence. Smdh

O’Brien was closer to Marino than Wilson is to Lawrence.

[KINGDIRK]

When we got blown out by Seattle and moved to 0-13, we should have gone to James Morgan at QB and embraced 0-16.

We didn’t, and so we deserve what we got.

[Anthony Jet]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

DISCLAIMER:  No, this is not a thread about tanking THIS year.  The difference between 8-9 and 7-10 is negligible.  We're talking REAL, season-long-over kind of tanking here.  0-17 /  vs 2-15 kind of tanking.  

 

I'd say that perhaps the most damaging aspect of the Woody Johnson era has been the policy (it would seem) to prefer 5 or 6-win seasons in a lost year over "bottoming out" for draft position purposes.  And we're paying for it with every regime. 

A reminder of the history below (note:  You might quibble over how helpful tanking would have been in any given year, and whether we would have been interested in some of these players in the first place, but in totality, its hard to argue we haven't missed out on elite draft capital/talent over the years):

 

2007

• Sitting at 3-12, the Jets won their Week 17 game against the Chiefs to finish 4-12 and end up with the # 6 pick.  A loss would have vaulted the Jets into a top-3 pick slot
• Selected:  DE Vernon Gholston
• Missed out on:  QB Matt Ryan

2014

• The 2-11 Jets, with lame duck HC Rex Ryan, won 2 of their final 3, thus missing out on a top-2 pick
• Selected:  DT Leonard Williams
• Missed out on:  Large package of picks (Tennessee reportedly strongly considered moving out of # 2 before selecting Mariota)

2019

• The 4-8 Jets won 3 of their final 4 games of the season to finish 7-9, costing them a top-6 pick
• Selected:  LT Mekhi Becton
• Missed out on:  QB Justin Herbert; OT Jedrick Wills

 

We also won 2 meaningless December games in 2005, but on this occasion we ended up getting a franchise LT out of the deal (Ferguson). 

And a December win in 2018 cost the Jets Nick Bosa in the '19 draft, though Quinnen Williams has gained a lot of ground on Bosa from a career perspective this season.

But the most egregious "failed tanking" effort was of course...

2020

• The 0-13 Jets won back-to-back games in Weeks 15 & 16 with lame duck HC Adam Gase, costing them the # 1 pick
• Selected:  QB Zach Wilson
• Missed out on:  QB Trevor Lawrence

 

There's no getting around this one if you're in the "anti-tanking" group, unless you're simply stubborn and obtuse.  Lawrence looks like the real deal.  Since Week 9 this year, there's arguably been no better QB in the NFL.  The Year 2 leap has happened for him, despite entering a disastrous situation with Urban Meyer in his rookie year.

This may well go down as a Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf situation, and it all could have been avoided had the Jets done what Woody Johnson seemingly refuses to do time and again:  Fire a HC midseason and tank properly.  

The problem with the tanking argument is that players don’t tank. Don’t see how anyone could argue that yes it would be better to not have a better pick. But it’s not logical. I know people think organizations tank and they might, players don’t. 
 

T Law we would’ve had to go winless. No professional athlete wants that on their resume. Especially to help out a team they probably won’t reap the rewards with. 
 

That and you gave examples in your post where the jets were better off with the pick they got and who they picked. 

So I definitely don’t think your wrong just don’t think it goes down like Rachel Phelps in majors league 

[Gastineau Lives]

3 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

O’Brien was closer to Marino than Wilson is to Lawrence.

Yup with the huge body of work Lawrence has had these last five weeks, I have to agree.

Waiting for the "A Football Life" about it.

[bitonti]

If the Jets cut everyone, lose all the games, why, they could tank forever! 

 

As someone who follows the draft religiously, I can assure you that this is not basketball, one player won't save the franchise. Good teams make great picks at the end of the round and bad teams make sh*t picks at 2 overall 

There's no LeBron waiting at 1 overall

Trevor Lawrence is the closest thing to that and he only works with a Doug Pedersen level hc 

The Jets are where they are because of incompetence from the towel manager all the way up to the owner's box 

They made bad decisions on everything from the uniform to hiring Joe Douglas and here we are 

They are not 2 meaningless wins or losses away from anything. The problems run way deeper than that. Matt Ryan lost his first 4 playoff games we'd have run him out of town on a rail 

Final thought this mess is on Zach and JD for drafting him. You don't miss on a 2 overall pick and win despite it. The whole program is circling the drain because they missed on Zach it's that simple 

[Irish Jet]

1 minute ago, Anthony Jet said:

The problem with the tanking argument is that players don’t tank. Don’t see how anyone could argue that yes it would be better to not have a better pick. But it’s not logical. I know people think organizations tank and they might, players don’t. 
 

T Law we would’ve had to go winless. No professional athlete wants that on their resume. Especially to help out a team they probably won’t reap the rewards with. 
 

That and you gave examples in your post where the jets were better off with the pick they got and who they picked. 

So I definitely don’t think your wrong just don’t think it goes down like Rachel Phelps in majors league 

It shouldn’t have been up the players. The GM should have ensured certain players never even seen the field.

[TuscanyTile2]

1 minute ago, Anthony Jet said:

The problem with the tanking argument is that players don’t tank. Don’t see how anyone could argue that yes it would be better to not have a better pick. But it’s not logical. I know people think organizations tank and they might, players don’t. 
 

T Law we would’ve had to go winless. No professional athlete wants that on their resume. Especially to help out a team they probably won’t reap the rewards with. 
 

That and you gave examples in your post where the jets were better off with the pick they got and who they picked. 

So I definitely don’t think your wrong just don’t think it goes down like Rachel Phelps in majors league 

If James Morgan was our starter, it wouldn't have mattered if our guys were trying.

[jetstream23]

 

[jetstream23]

 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

The problem with the tanking argument is that players don’t tank. Don’t see how anyone could argue that yes it would be better to not have a better pick. But it’s not logical. I know people think organizations tank and they might, players don’t. 
 

T Law we would’ve had to go winless. No professional athlete wants that on their resume. Especially to help out a team they probably won’t reap the rewards with.

I don't know how everyone isn't fully aware by now that tanking efforts are front office-driven, not player-driven.

The strategy is to fire the HC midseason and put in an interim coach, then tell the interim coach what players to play.  

Teams out there tank successfully all the time.  The Dolphins even got into trouble for it.  We know it happens.  But the Jets simply don't do it.  Ever.  Because Woody thinks all wins are of equal value and all losses are bad.  He's a numbskull.

[Anthony Jet]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

If James Morgan was our starter, it wouldn't have mattered if our guys were trying.

Lol. How could the coaches will this to the players, the jet sell this to the nfl and the nfl sell it to the fans….it’s not logical. 

[Anthony Jet]

3 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

It shouldn’t have been up the players. The GM should have ensured certain players never even seen the field.

Doesn’t work that way. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

If the Jets cut everyone, lose all the games, why, they could tank forever! 

 

As someone who follows the draft religiously, I can assure you that this is not basketball, one player won't save the franchise. Good teams make great picks at the end of the round and bad teams make sh*t picks at 2 overall 

There's no LeBron waiting at 1 overall

Trevor Lawrence is the closest thing to that and he only works with a Doug Pedersen level hc 

The Jets are where they are because of incompetence from the towel manager all the way up to the owner's box 

They made bad decisions on everything from the uniform to hiring Joe Douglas and here we are 

They are not 2 meaningless wins or losses away from anything. The problems run way deeper than that.

Final thought this mess is on Zach and JD for drafting him. You don't miss on a 2 overall pick and win despite it. The whole problem is circling the drain because they missed on Zach it's that simple 

 

Trevor Lawrence : Peyton Manning

as

Ryan Leaf : Zach Wilson

 

You're wrong.  Plain and simple.  It's proven that tanking can turn a program around.  It would have for the Jets if they ended up with Lawrence.  Stone cold truth.  You lost this one, bit.  

[TuscanyTile2]

Just now, Anthony Jet said:

Lol. How could the coaches will this to the players, the jet sell this to the nfl and the nfl sell it to the fans….it’s not logical. 

Jacksonville did it by starting Mike Glennon at the end of that year.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, Anthony Jet said:

Doesn’t work that way. 

Of course it does.  Why did the Dolphins get into trouble for tanking if you think it doesn't?

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

Lol. How could the coaches will this to the players, the jet sell this to the nfl and the nfl sell it to the fans….it’s not logical. 

They don't have to sell it to anyone.  They just do it.

Then we'd have Trevor Lawrence right now instead of Zach Wilson and no one would have had a single problem with it.

Just like the Jaguars did when they started Mike Glennon over Gardner Minshew for no good reason.

[fullblast]

They only bottom out when the playoffs are on the line.

[bitonti]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Trevor Lawrence : Peyton Manning

as

Ryan Leaf : Zach Wilson

 

You're wrong.  Plain and simple.  It's proven that tanking can turn a program around.  It would have for the Jets if they ended up with Lawrence.  Stone cold truth.  You lost this one, bit.  

Yeah and Trevor Lawrence was terrible until Doug Pedersen showed up 

The Jets did not hire good coaches that's not really anything to do with the draft 

Saleh is closer to urban Meyer than super bowl winning Doug Pedersen and that all traces back to woody 

[Anthony Jet]

2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Jacksonville did it by starting Mike Glennon at the end of that year.

Over gardner Minshew…. We had a former 3rd pick in the draft we were developing. It’s apples and oranges. 

[Fantasy Island]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

DISCLAIMER:  No, this is not a thread about tanking THIS year.  The difference between 8-9 and 7-10 is negligible.  We're talking REAL, season-long-over kind of tanking here.  0-17 /  vs 2-15 kind of tanking.  

 

I'd say that perhaps the most damaging aspect of the Woody Johnson era has been the policy (it would seem) to prefer 5 or 6-win seasons in a lost year over "bottoming out" for draft position purposes.  And we're paying for it with every regime. 

A reminder of the history below (note:  You might quibble over how helpful tanking would have been in any given year, and whether we would have been interested in some of these players in the first place, but in totality, its hard to argue we haven't missed out on elite draft capital/talent over the years):

 

2007

• Sitting at 3-12, the Jets won their Week 17 game against the Chiefs to finish 4-12 and end up with the # 6 pick.  A loss would have vaulted the Jets into a top-3 pick slot
• Selected:  DE Vernon Gholston
• Missed out on:  QB Matt Ryan

2014

• The 2-11 Jets, with lame duck HC Rex Ryan, won 2 of their final 3, thus missing out on a top-2 pick
• Selected:  DT Leonard Williams
• Missed out on:  Large package of picks (Tennessee reportedly strongly considered moving out of # 2 before selecting Mariota)

2019

• The 4-8 Jets won 3 of their final 4 games of the season to finish 7-9, costing them a top-6 pick
• Selected:  LT Mekhi Becton
• Missed out on:  QB Justin Herbert; OT Jedrick Wills

 

We also won 2 meaningless December games in 2005, but on this occasion we ended up getting a franchise LT out of the deal (Ferguson). 

And a December win in 2018 cost the Jets Nick Bosa in the '19 draft, though Quinnen Williams has gained a lot of ground on Bosa from a career perspective this season.

But the most egregious "failed tanking" effort was of course...

2020

• The 0-13 Jets won back-to-back games in Weeks 15 & 16 with lame duck HC Adam Gase, costing them the # 1 pick
• Selected:  QB Zach Wilson
• Missed out on:  QB Trevor Lawrence

 

There's no getting around this one if you're in the "anti-tanking" group, unless you're simply stubborn and obtuse.  Lawrence looks like the real deal.  Since Week 9 this year, there's arguably been no better QB in the NFL.  The Year 2 leap has happened for him, despite entering a disastrous situation with Urban Meyer in his rookie year.

This may well go down as a Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf situation, and it all could have been avoided had the Jets done what Woody Johnson seemingly refuses to do time and again:  Fire a HC midseason and tank properly.  

Trevor Lawerence would suck with this CS.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, bitonti said:

Yeah and Trevor Lawrence was terrible until Doug Pedersen showed up 

The Jets did not hire good coaches that's not really anything to do with the draft 

Saleh is closer to urban Meyer than super bowl winning Doug Pedersen and that all traces back to woody 

Trevor Lawrence can play football and Zach Wilson cannot.  He's worse than Leaf and JaMarcus. 

Pederson is far from the main reason why Lawrence made the year 2 leap, just like any coach can't be primarily responsible for every QB success story.  Otherwise why spend all that money on QBs and QB scouting across the league?  Just spend all your money on coaches.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Anthony Jet said:

Over gardner Minshew…. We had a former 3rd pick in the draft we were developing. It’s apples and oranges. 

Minshew was still young (only 1 year older than Darnold) and, at the time, was playing well.  There was no good reason to bench him for Mike friggin Glennon.

[Anthony Jet]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

They don't have to sell it to anyone.  They just do it.

Then we'd have Trevor Lawrence right now instead of Zach Wilson and no one would have had a single problem with it.

Just like the Jaguars did when they started Mike Glennon over Gardner Minshew for no good reason.

Glennon over Minshew not equal to Morgan over Darnold 

Its blatant to even the most casual fan of the jets try that 

[bitonti]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Woody thinks all wins are of equal value and all losses are bad.  He's a numbskull.

You're close. Wins and losses pay the same. So why try to win? 

That's why woody does not hire a Sean Payton. Because the NFL is the ultimate communism. They don't get paid for the win they get paid for the attempt 

[Fantasy Island]

5 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

Hopefully with a new GM and HC

[Anthony Jet]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Of course it does.  Why did the Dolphins get into trouble for tanking if you think it doesn't?

Not familiar with the dolphins tanking 

[peebag]

6 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

And it won't change a gosh darn thing.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Anthony Jet said:

Glennon over Minshew not equal to Morgan over Darnold 

Its blatant to even the most casual fan of the jets try that 

Its really not that different.  And at least in benching Darnold for Morgan, you can sell it as giving a late round prospect a shot.  Versus trying to explain why you start a veteran like Mike Glennon.

[Anthony Jet]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Minshew was still young (only 1 year older than Darnold) and, at the time, was playing well.  There was no good reason to bench him for Mike friggin Glennon.

Yes you are right. But, Minshew was never considered the future of that franchise. darnold was at that time 

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

Over gardner Minshew…. We had a former 3rd pick in the draft we were developing. It’s apples and oranges. 

Many people on this forum are desperate to sign Gardner Minshew as our QB1 next season!  Lol

[Jet Life]

I’ll be rooting for Miami. We have a chance at the 10th pick and losing out could hopefully force Woodys hand to blow this joke of an operation up