Which offensive positions are most/least correlated with playoffs & SB? Last 6 years ..

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

I took the Associated Press All Pro 1st & 2nd teams (offense) over the last 6 years & mapped out which players/positions went to the playoffs.

While these types of analysis are imperfect, we should get a 'feel' for which positions drive greater success.  In this analysis, success defined as the rate of reaching the playoffs and a sweet spot for how far.   

On offense, the conventional wisdom is that the 3 most important offensive positions are QB, LT/WR or WR/LT.

So let's use the success metrics above to challenge that.

1. QB rank matches conventional wisdom (of course ) but some of the high to low positional rankings in the table below might surprise you.

2a. Right Tackle is ranked #2 with 6 different players landing on the All Pro teams over 6 years with a 100% playoff rate and 3 trips to the Super Bowl.

2b. Pass Catching Tight End is roughly tied w/ RT, with fewer playoff trips but deeper runs & more Super Bowl appearances.  Kelce, Kittle & Gronkowski are unicorns other teams don't have and it shows.

3. Then Wide Receiver and so on as you can see below.

4. Center is slightly above Right Guard, possibly highlighting the importance of the glue that holds a line together.  Something I don't think McGovern was good at

5. Surprisingly, Right Guard is significantly higher than Left Guard, which is considered the more premium position.

6. Is it possible having dominant players on the right side against weaker pass rushers is leading to better results?  Or it's more important to have clearer throwing lanes on the right side of the line in a league that has a slight preference throwing right?  Or that right tackles are more impactful in the running game?   

7. Which brings us to Left Tackle...  is this table somehow understating the importance of the blind side protector?  It's roughly equivalent to Right Guard with a lower playoff percentage but deeper runs ...... however no Super Bowls.

8. Sticking with the offensive line, maybe moving AVT to right guard was due to these trends, and having a healthy Becton there might not be a bad thing.

9. Lastly, none of these TEs was a first round pick which might highlight how hard a position it is to evaluate.  I do NOT think a guy like Mayer from Notre Dame is in the same class but who the hell knows...

I thought it was interesting so decided to share.  What are your thoughts?

[Dax89]

You have to consider, especially for O-Line, that there's a bias toward picking pro-bowl/all pro players from successful teams.  Doesn't totally nullify the hypothesis but definitely something to think about.

[Jetsfan80]

47 minutes ago, Dax89 said:

You have to consider, especially for O-Line, that there's a bias toward picking pro-bowl/all pro players from successful teams.  Doesn't totally nullify the hypothesis but definitely something to think about.

Exactly.  It's also quite easy to play RT for a QB who gets the ball out quick like....say....Tom Brady. 

Did Tristan Wirfs deserve to be a 1st Team All-Pro in 2021?  Maybe.  But his job was also made quite easy from a pass protection standpoint.

[Larz]

Last time I checked passer rating differential is a good predictor. 

[THE BARON]

Thousands of moving parts in an offense.  LT is a key position, but with an offense that can run the ball it will take pressure off of pass blocking.  A QB that can evade and or deliver quickly also takes pressure off of the pass blockers.  The reverse is also true if you can't run the ball or if your QB is not mobile or possessing a fast release.

The system and unit as a whole working in synergy is the compelling factor.  Not the absolute ideal quality of individual positions.

Consider a military parallel... 

Command & control along with logistics and support are everything vs. the specifications and performance of the respective weapon systems.

What counts more in an air war ??? 

If you handed a fleet of 50 F-22's over to a second or third world country and contested that against a fleet of 50 F-4's being operated by the contemporary American military, which fleet would win ???

The F-22's are far in advance of the F-4's but those F-22's won't be directed with good intel and command and control.  They wont even be maintained.  The Vietnam era F-4 fleet being operated within a sophisticated system and with expert tactics would have an easy win over the contemporary F-22 fleet that was operated by an inadequate military. 

Same deal with a super carrier at sea.  A nation can build a super carrier with great specs, but operating it would be a different story.  A larger and faster carrier with more planes than the Ford class would be easy meat for an attack sub if it wasn't being operated in conjunction with a system. 

So... The stats of the F-22 and OT mean less than the system. 

[Integrity28]

So, out of 11 offensive positions, you’re saying 9 of them are most important to playoff success. Interesting… very interesting.

[THE BARON]

4 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

DUPE DELETED

 

[hokiejetfan92]

Well I'd say if you had a really good RT and a bad LT you'd probably move him to LT. So a really good RT probably means both tackles are solid

[SickJetFan]

Way too much time on ones hands

[Jetsfan80]

31 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

So, out of 11 offensive positions, you’re saying 9 of them are most important to playoff success. Interesting… very interesting.

@DefenseWinsChampionships85

[32EBoozer]

#MAYER@21JETSMOCKWINS!

[jgb]

I love analyses like this. While I think there are confounding variables that make conclusions difficult (which you acknowledge), kudos for putting it together.

[The Crusher]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

I love analyses like this. While I think there are confounding variables that make conclusions difficult (which you acknowledge), kudos for putting it together.

I stopped reading at QB, grabbed a bigger than usual handful of breakfast bites, shove them in my mouth and cried a little. 

[jgb]

Just now, The Crusher said:

I stopped reading at QB, grabbed a bigger than usual handful of breakfast bites, shove them in my mouth and cried a little. 

Thought experiment: you and Becton at a buffet line when the fresh crab legs come out… what’s the final allocation between you?

[The Crusher]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Thought experiment: you and Becton at a buffet line when the fresh crab legs come out… what’s the final allocation between you?

I get the Crab Legs  and he gets kicked in the knee! I’m not proud of it but it is what it is. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

9 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

So, out of 11 offensive positions, you’re saying 9 of them are most important to playoff success. Interesting… very interesting.

Actually 10, I had a tie at 2a and 2b

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

10 hours ago, SickJetFan said:

Way too much time on ones hands

It was between this and serial killing ….  you live around here?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

34 minutes ago, jgb said:

I love analyses like this. While I think there are confounding variables that make conclusions difficult (which you acknowledge), kudos for putting it together.

Thanks, I knew there was 1 other person …

I’m still trying to find the the other person who liked ‘Little Nicky’ with Adam Sandler.

If you say it’s you, we must be related … at least third cousins or some sh*t

[Integrity28]

1 minute ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Thanks, I knew there was 1 other person …

I’m still trying to find the the other person who liked ‘Little Nicky’ with Adam Sandler.

If you say it’s you, we must be related … at least third cousins or some sh*t

Sounds more like the offspring of married cousins.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

11 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Sounds more like the offspring of married cousins.

Don’t talk about our Mom/Aunt/Sissy that way

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

12 hours ago, Dax89 said:

You have to consider, especially for O-Line, that there's a bias toward picking pro-bowl/all pro players from successful teams.  Doesn't totally nullify the hypothesis but definitely something to think about.

Completely agree, that’s why there are some flaws … with potentially the strongest bias toward the SB QB.

But the winning teams comment is exactly the point.  why aren’t we seeing more Left Tackles on this list compared to other offensive linemen and positions?

1. Could it be that Left Tackle is overpaid on a relative basis and takes important resources away from building winners?

2. Or that it takes several years for a LT to become dominant (the best), meaning teams don’t have the luxury of paying one on a rookie deal?

WRs have recently become studs in year 1 or 2 — shorter and cheaper path to success & impact

3. If this is just a flaw (which it might be), why are right guards significantly outperforming left guards?

I don’t have the answers but it’s interesting and hopefully thought providing nonetheless.

 

[jgb]

56 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Thanks, I knew there was 1 other person …

I’m still trying to find the the other person who liked ‘Little Nicky’ with Adam Sandler.

If you say it’s you, we must be related … at least third cousins or some sh*t

I enjoy the pineapple scene 

[Smashmouth]

12 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Exactly.  It's also quite easy to play RT for a QB who gets the ball out quick like....say....Tom Brady. 

Did Tristan Wirfs deserve to be a 1st Team All-Pro in 2021?  Maybe.  But his job was also made quite easy from a pass protection standpoint.

This ^^  and lets not forget premium position or not playoff/SB contenders WILL figure out a way to exploit weaknesses. I'm not a believer in this premium position bullsh*t never have been. For instance if your offense needs one part to turn things around and a Marshall Faulk is available you never turn that away since I believe he was the Main missing piece for the Rams and a huge help to the development of Kurt Warner. No way on earth that team even sniffs the SB without him and also no way Kurt Warner would have got off to the start he did without Faulk yet some still say RB is not a premium position. We also all saw What the Jets did before Hall got hurt with a horrific QB under center 7-3

[undertow]

Never really understood why center is looked at as an unimportant position that you can't take in the first round.

[Bobby816]

I'm sensing a very 2006 draft. Broderick Jones at 13 who reminds me of Brick and a C in Round 2 or even trade up for a C like JMS. But I see us liking Tippmann and Wypler as well. 

[THE BARON]

2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

I stopped reading at QB, grabbed a bigger than usual handful of breakfast bites, shove them in my mouth and cried a little. 

Not to worry... Rodgers is on the way. 

[THE BARON]

19 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I'm sensing a very 2006 draft. Broderick Jones at 13 who reminds me of Brick and a C in Round 2 or even trade up for a C like JMS. But I see us liking Tippmann and Wypler as well. 

I'm still hoping they get Skoronski @ 13.  IMHO, he is the best offensive player in the draft.  Yes.. My big board has him above all the QB's and WR's as well.  Skoronski is the best football player in this draft on the offensive side of the ball.  I felt that way about Sauce last year being the best player in the draft.  This year, I now rate Skoronski as the best overall football player taking all things into account.  Not just measurables.  

I HOPE he falls to the Jets, but I strongly doubt it. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

32 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I'm sensing a very 2006 draft. Broderick Jones at 13 who reminds me of Brick and a C in Round 2 or even trade up for a C like JMS. But I see us liking Tippmann and Wypler as well. 

That’s probably a really good strategy for any other year.  However, interested in your thoughts on how does that help the Jets win a Super Bowl this year or in year 2?

I posted the other day very clear evidence that recent first round wide receivers have a much higher overall hit rate and make a much bigger impact year 1 than a first round offensive tackle.

The 3-5 tackles who did very well out of the gate were.  Interestingly, 3 are at Right Tackle …  

LT:  Slater, Darrisaw

RT:  Wirfs, Sewell, McGlinchey

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

My personal draft after seeing the table above and the immediate success that several first round WRs have had in recent years.

Pick #13:  WR or trade back slightly if there are a couple you love still on the board

Pick #42:  Center

If you can trade back, nab an Offensive tackle who is a good pass blocker (like Mitchell).

I think the mid to late rounds are defensive selections (LB, FS, run stopping DT), possibly a developmental QB.

We’ll then see the Jets pick up Becton’s 5th year option.

[Bobby816]

2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

That’s probably a really good strategy for any other year.  However, interested in your thoughts on how does that help the Jets win a Super Bowl this year or in year 2?

I posted the other day very clear evidence that recent first round wide receivers have a much higher overall hit rate and make a much bigger impact year 1 than a first round offensive tackle.

The 3-5 tackles who did very well out of the gate were.  Interestingly, 3 are at Right Tackle …  

LT:  Slater, Darrisaw

RT:  Wirfs, Sewell, McGlinchey

Bc that'd drafting 2 starters for us. Where else are we drafting 2 starters. An OT at 13 will battle for a starting spot no matter who it is. And I'd say it's more than a 90% chance we go OT at 13. I said Jones... but plug in any OT you think we might draft there. No matter who it is is in contention to start.

At C we have only a backup IOL right now on the roster. See no way we sign a guy in this next week at C. Likely we're waiting to see if we draft a guy. If the draft doesn't fall the way we like..... we go the FA route post draft. But a guy like SMS is probably the safest pick in the draft. And is a plug and play starter.

 

What other positions are we drafting that is a for sure starter for us year 1? DT? They'd rotate in and see less than 50% of snaps? S? That guy would have to beta out Clark and Whithead? No where else do we have a hole that's plug and play starter.

 

So going OT than C is actually the only way we likely get immediate impact from our 1st 2 picks.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

4 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Bc that'd drafting 2 starters for us. Where else are we drafting 2 starters. An OT at 13 will battle for a starting spot no matter who it is. And I'd say it's more than a 90% chance we go OT at 13. I said Jones... but plug in any OT you think we might draft there. No matter who it is is in contention to start.

At C we have only a backup IOL right now on the roster. See no way we sign a guy in this next week at C. Likely we're waiting to see if we draft a guy. If the draft doesn't fall the way we like..... we go the FA route post draft. But a guy like SMS is probably the safest pick in the draft. And is a plug and play starter.

 

What other positions are we drafting that is a for sure starter for us year 1? DT? They'd rotate in and see less than 50% of snaps? S? That guy would have to beta out Clark and Whithead? No where else do we have a hole that's plug and play starter.

 

So going OT than C is actually the only way we likely get immediate impact from our 1st 2 picks.

Agree 100% on Center.

I see the Jets upgrading WR #2 and saying goodbye to Davis.

The starting LT Brown.  Starting RT Becton or Mitchell

We’ll see.  Only 8 days away my friend.  Exciting times..

 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

12 hours ago, hokiejetfan92 said:

Well I'd say if you had a really good RT and a bad LT you'd probably move him to LT. So a really good RT probably means both tackles are solid

I quote your post more less so to agreement/disagree/debate. But this reminds me of Drew Brew/Sean Payton's teams who had a revolving door of Tackles for a while but made sure they invested a premium on interior OL; LG/C/RG. They didn’t care how much of a JAG their tackles where as long as Brees had a clean pocket to step into. 

[Bobby816]

3 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Agree 100% on Center.

I see the Jets upgrading WR #2 and saying goodbye to Davis.

The starting LT Brown.  Starting RT Becton or Mitchell

We’ll see.  Only 8 days away my friend.  Exciting times..

 

We very well could. Just don’t see us spending a 1st or 2nd on a WR. Just drafted GW and paid Lazard. Hardman they promised a bigger role to as well. So I do think we need to add a WR if we cut or trade Davis. Just don’t think it’s early. And really the only guys I like are JDN and Flowers at the top of the draft. And oddly enough I see Flowers as very similar to Moore. JSN is 100-% worth that 13th pick if there. But we need OL more than a WR IMO.

[Hex]

26 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

The 3-5 tackles who did very well out of the gate were.  Interestingly, 3 are at Right Tackle …  

LT:  Slater, Darrisaw

RT:  Wirfs, Sewell, McGlinchey

Well it’s either 3 RTs or 3 LTs if it’s as close as can be

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

34 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

We very well could. Just don’t see us spending a 1st or 2nd on a WR. Just drafted GW and paid Lazard. Hardman they promised a bigger role to as well. So I do think we need to add a WR if we cut or trade Davis. Just don’t think it’s early. And really the only guys I like are JDN and Flowers at the top of the draft. And oddly enough I see Flowers as very similar to Moore. JSN is 100-% worth that 13th pick if there. But we need OL more than a WR IMO.

Yep, very fair logic.  Let’s just get someone great and wrap up this Rodgers deal.