Is Jets trade down with Raiders - most likely scenario if Odunze isn’t there?

[Jdeet]

The Raiders are said to be very high on Michael Penix Jr. with the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders picking 11, 12, 13 (if there are no previous trade ups), the spot to jump to for the Raiders, which will cost them the least, would be the Jets. The Titans, Falcons, and Bears are not drafting a QB, at 7, 8, 9. They could jump to 6, if the Giants are willing, but that would cost them a lot. 

Based on the value chart, the Jets could get 13 and 44 for 10, 72, and a 4th. So basically a 2nd and 3 spots down, for a 3rd and 4th or the Jets could give the Raiders a 2025 pick. 

Is this worth it for the Jets ? If they are all in on Bowers, it’s likely he is still there at 13. So will be a solid OT like Fuaga or Fautanu. Gaining a 2nd rounder allows the Jets to get two prime picks. 

I think the Jets would be smart to trade down if Odunze (and obviously MHJ/Nabers) isn’t there. 

Thoughts?

[Beerfish]

No one is trading up for penix

Raiders90210 will be in here in seconds telling us how great Aidan O'Connell is and that the Raiders will trade down

[Jdeet]

5 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No one is trading up for penix

Raiders90210 will be in here in seconds telling us how great Aidan O'Connell is and that the Raiders will trade down

So you are saying, if the Vikings and/or Broncos are on the clock at 11 and 12, they are not choosing a QB, with the likelihood 4 QBs will already be gone?

[slats]

9 minutes ago, Jdeet said:

The Raiders are said to be very high on Michael Penix Jr. with the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders picking 11, 12, 13 (if there are no previous trade ups), the spot to jump to for the Raiders, which will cost them the least, would be the Jets. The Titans, Falcons, and Bears are not drafting a QB, at 7, 8, 9. They could jump to 6, if the Giants are willing, but that would cost them a lot. 

Based on the value chart, the Jets could get 13 and 44 for 10, 72, and a 4th. So basically a 2nd and 3 spots down, for a 3rd and 4th or the Jets could give the Raiders a 2025 pick. 

Is this worth it for the Jets ? If they are all in on Bowers, it’s likely he is still there at 13. So will be a solid OT like Fuaga or Fautanu. Gaining a 2nd rounder allows the Jets to get two prime picks. 

I think the Jets would be smart to trade down if Odunze (and obviously MHJ/Nabers) isn’t there. 

Thoughts?

They could trade up to #9 with Chicago after Douglas tells them that he won’t agree to anything until he’s on the clock. Whatever happens at #9 will be what determines whether he’ll be willing to move. So if, say, WR #3 is sitting there at #10, the Jets are taking him and LV is potentially ****ed. 

[Integrity28]

Uh, yes?

Wait, no?

(I’m covered on this one.)

[derp]

This assumes the Vikings don’t move up.

[Beerfish]

8 minutes ago, Jdeet said:

So you are saying, if the Vikings and/or Broncos are on the clock at 11 and 12, they are not choosing a QB, with the likelihood 4 QBs will already be gone?

The top QB prospects in this draft are worthy though no sure things.  Williams, Daniels, Maye are worth going for guys like mccarthy and penix are not as much and I say this liking penix a LOT he is being underrated.   I'll be delighted if as usual, as always team overate QBs due to need.  This is good for the jets. Teams like vikes and broncos should just sit there and take what comes to them.  Vikes have tipped their hand already and will trade up.

I hope for their sake they are trading up for one of the top three, if they trade up for a guy like mccarthy it will be laughable.

[Jdeet]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

They could trade up to #9 with Chicago after Douglas tells them that he won’t agree to anything until he’s on the clock. Whatever happens at #9 will be what determines whether he’ll be willing to move. So if, say, WR #3 is sitting there at #10, the Jets are taking him and LV is potentially ****ed. 

True. I think the Bears taking a WR at 9 is overhyped though. They already have DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Defense is a more likely pick for them. 

My thought is, JD is sold on Bowers and If Odunze isn’t there, there isn’t a huge dropoff. The trade down wouldn’t hurt them. The Raiders would obviously trade with the Jets, costing them less money. But yeah, JD is calling the shots. I guess he could just wait it out and take whichever guy is there. But gaining a 2nd would be a smart move. 

[Jdeet]

8 minutes ago, derp said:

This assumes the Vikings don’t move up.

Even if the Vikings move up for McCarthy or someone else, the Broncos are there, needing a QB as well. 

[Tony The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, derp said:

This assumes the Vikings don’t move up.

Vikings are guaranteed to move up. 

[slats]

4 minutes ago, Jdeet said:

True. I think the Bears taking a WR at 9 is overhyped though. They already have DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Defense is a more likely pick for them. 

My thought is, JD is sold on Bowers and If Odunze isn’t there, there isn’t a huge dropoff. The trade down wouldn’t hurt them. The Raiders would obviously trade with the Jets, costing them less money. But yeah, JD is calling the shots. I guess he could just wait it out and take whichever guy is there. But gaining a 2nd would be a smart move. 

I also don’t think Chicago will go WR at #9, but I do think they really want to trade down and add picks. They only have four right now. So if only two WRs are gone after 8 picks, the Jets will be waiting to see whatever happens at pick #9 before they agree to move down. If Oakland or Denver trade up to #9 for a QB, that only helps the Jets who have no interest in Brock Bowers other than helping to create the smoke billowing around him. 

[T0mShane]

The idea here is that Penix becomes such a hot commodity that the Raiders feel like they have to move *up* to draft him? 

[Jdeet]

8 minutes ago, slats said:

I also don’t think Chicago will go WR at #9, but I do think they really want to trade down and add picks. They only have four right now. So if only two WRs are gone after 8 picks, the Jets will be waiting to see whatever happens at pick #9 before they agree to move down. If Oakland or Denver trade up to #9 for a QB, that only helps the Jets who have no interest in Brock Bowers other than helping to create the smoke billowing around him. 

I hope you are right. I don’t really want Bowers either. Odunze/Nabers or trade down, if it were me. Can still get a solid OT in the top 20. 

[Jdeet]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

The idea here is that Penix becomes such a hot commodity that the Raiders feel like they have to move *up* to draft him? 

I realize you hate to agree with anyone, but truth is, Michael Penix Jr is a Raiders kind of pick. And yes, I think they would trade up to get him, if they had to. 

[slats]

12 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The idea here is that Penix becomes such a hot commodity that the Raiders feel like they have to move *up* to draft him? 

The only real juice is that their QB hungry division rival has the pick before them. LV could move to jump Denver, or Denver could move to block LV. 
 
If @Rich Thornburgh were running the Jets, he wouldn’t get past #10. 

[Maynard13]

33 minutes ago, Jdeet said:

The Raiders are said to be very high on Michael Penix Jr. with the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders picking 11, 12, 13 (if there are no previous trade ups), the spot to jump to for the Raiders, which will cost them the least, would be the Jets. The Titans, Falcons, and Bears are not drafting a QB, at 7, 8, 9. They could jump to 6, if the Giants are willing, but that would cost them a lot. 

Based on the value chart, the Jets could get 13 and 44 for 10, 72, and a 4th. So basically a 2nd and 3 spots down, for a 3rd and 4th or the Jets could give the Raiders a 2025 pick. 

Is this worth it for the Jets ? If they are all in on Bowers, it’s likely he is still there at 13. So will be a solid OT like Fuaga or Fautanu. Gaining a 2nd rounder allows the Jets to get two prime picks. 

I think the Jets would be smart to trade down if Odunze (and obviously MHJ/Nabers) isn’t there. 

Thoughts?

Uhhh Nooooooooooo.  The Jimmy Johnson calculaton was devised years ago. I'm not giving up 10 and 72 for 13 and 44 and HAVE to GIVE up a 4th as well. LOLOL. 10 for 13 and 44 and throw them a bone in the 4th. You are giving up way too much to make that trade.  We are in the power position there. 

[Maynard13]

16 minutes ago, Tony The Wiz said:

Vikings are guaranteed to move up. 

This was set in stone the moment they traded to get the 2 1st rounders 11 & 23.  They are infatuated with Mccarthy or Maye and will dig deep into their pockets to get the QB they want.

[Tony The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, Jdeet said:

I hope you are right. I don’t really want Bowers either. Odunze/Nabers or trade down, if it were me. Can still get a solid OT in the top 20. 

I saw already 3 mock drafts that have the Bears taking Odunze at 9.  There are other mock drafts that are different but the majority player I have seen is Odunze.  He is my number 5 ranked player on my top 65. Why wouldn't Chicago not take him? 

[Tony The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

This is  set in stone teh moment they treaded to get the 2 1st rounders 11 & 23.  They are infatuated with Mccarthy or Maye and will dig deep into their pockets to get the QB they want.

Its as guaranteed as it comes. They want JJ and not want the Giants to get him. 

[#27TheDominator]

3 minutes ago, Tony The Wiz said:

I saw already 3 mock drafts that have the Bears taking Odunze at 9.  There are other mock drafts that are different but the majority player I have seen is Odunze.  He is my number 5 ranked player on my top 65. Why wouldn't Chicago not take him? 

Maybe their top 65 is different than yours? 

[Alka]

36 minutes ago, slats said:

They could trade up to #9 with Chicago after Douglas tells them that he won’t agree to anything until he’s on the clock. Whatever happens at #9 will be what determines whether he’ll be willing to move. So if, say, WR #3 is sitting there at #10, the Jets are taking him and LV is potentially ****ed. 

I agree with what you are saying, but isn't it a possibility that Chicago picks WR #3?  If that's the case, then the trade for #13 makes sense, if we can get pick #44 as well.  

And if wide receiver #3 is there at 10, then the only way the Jets make that trade with LV is if they are willing to overpay by a significant amount to get to 10, or if the Jets already know that they will be picking the tackle, and they like the wide receivers who will be there at #44.

[Tony The Wiz]

4 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Maybe their top 65 is different than yours? 

Why don't you do a little research, and go see where Odunze is on these football guru's, experts, commentators or whatever list. And go see where Odunze lands on their list. Google is a great way to research. 

[Greenseed4]

It would cost us more picks to trade back?

[#27TheDominator]

2 minutes ago, Tony The Wiz said:

Why don't you do a little research, and go see where Odunze is on these football guru's, experts, commentators or whatever list. And go see where Odunze lands on their list. Google is a great way to research. 

Did you post your ratings anywhere this year?  Don't really need instructions on how to see where these "football gurus, experts, commentators or whatever" list them.  What Mel Kiper says does not have much relevance to who the Bears will pick.   Teams ratings don't necessarily match pundits.  Thanks for the tip on Google.  I bet it will come in handy.

[Jdeet]

22 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Uhhh Nooooooooooo.  The Jimmy Johnson calculaton was devised years ago. I'm not giving up 10 and 72 for 13 and 44 and HAVE to GIVE up a 4th as well. LOLOL. 10 for 13 and 44 and throw them a bone in the 4th. You are giving up way too much to make that trade.  We are in the power position there. 

I hear you. I don’t think the Raiders give up a 2nd round pick to move up from 13 to 10 and not get anything more of value, but seriously, you are saying a 4th, I am saying a 3rd. It’s not that far off. Could be more picks involved. But you get the idea. 

[Tony The Wiz]

1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

Did you post your ratings anywhere this year?  Don't really need instructions on how to see where these "football gurus, experts, commentators or whatever" list them.  What Mel Kiper says does not have much relevance to who the Bears will pick.   Teams ratings don't necessarily match pundits.  Thanks for the tip on Google.  I bet it will come in handy.

But wait you are the expert. right? So if you say that the Bears won't draft a top 8 player, you know better than all of them. Really?!! 

[Alka]

4 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

It would cost us more picks to trade back?

Depends on how far back we trade.  If we trade back 2 or 3 spots, that will not be good enough to get back a 2nd round pick.  In order for us to get the 2nd round pick, we would need to give back at least 1 later draft pick.

If we trade back 8 or 9 spots, I wouldn't make that trade without getting back a 2nd round pick, and not giving up anything else.

[slats]

8 minutes ago, Alka said:

I agree with what you are saying, but isn't it a possibility that Chicago picks WR #3?  If that's the case, then the trade for #13 makes sense, if we can get pick #44 as well.  

And if wide receiver #3 is there at 10, then the only way the Jets make that trade with LV is if they are willing to overpay by a significant amount to get to 10, or if the Jets already know that they will be picking the tackle, and they like the wide receivers who will be there at #44.

Yes, this is exactly what I’m saying. IF Chicago sticks and picks WR #3, then -yes!- JD promptly looks to move down. But he can’t make that call until the three WRs are gone, imho. 

[Jdeet]

5 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

It would cost us more picks to trade back?

If we trade back with the Raiders 3 spots, from 10 to 13, with the Raiders giving us a 2nd round pick #44, we would have to give them an additional pick, 3rd/4th or 2025 pick to even it out. I would think. 

Or throw in Zach Wilson 😂 

[Alka]

2 minutes ago, Jdeet said:

Or throw in Zach Wilson 😂

If we throw in Zach Wilson, then we will have to give up additional picks.  lol

[Greenseed4]

21 minutes ago, Tony The Wiz said:

I saw already 3 mock drafts that have the Bears taking Odunze at 9.  There are other mock drafts that are different but the majority player I have seen is Odunze.  He is my number 5 ranked player on my top 65. Why wouldn't Chicago not take him? 

Argument #1:
Taking a WR at 9 is a luxury pick after signing Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift to join DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, and drafting a QB at 1 overall.

Argument #2:    
2 of their 3 leading sack producers left in free agency, and even then, they produced 4 (Ngoukue) and 4.5 (J Jones) sacks respectively.

Argument #3:    
They decide to protect their #1 investment by adding beef to the OL 

[derp]

40 minutes ago, Tony The Wiz said:

Vikings are guaranteed to move up. 

That was effectively the point of my post, yes.

43 minutes ago, Jdeet said:

Even if the Vikings move up for McCarthy or someone else, the Broncos are there, needing a QB as well. 

But Vegas could pay less to move up to 11 with a team that’s already been willing to move down, no?

[derp]

1 minute ago, Greenseed4 said:

Argument #1:
Taking a WR at 9 is a luxury pick after signing Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift to join DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, and drafting a QB at 1 overall.

Argument #2:    
2 of their 3 leading sack producers left in free agency, and even then, they produced 4 (Ngoukue) and 4.5 (J Jones) sacks respectively.

Argument #3:    
They decide to protect their #1 investment by adding beef to the OL 

They also have only two picks left after pick nine and in a deep WR class could trade down, get the pass rusher, add picks, and get a quality receiver later.

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, derp said:

They also have only two picks left after pick nine and in a deep WR class could trade down, get the pass rusher, add picks, and get a quality receiver later.

If the Bears like several QBs then can trade down multiple times (e.g. to #2 and then to #5) and still get one of these QBs along with a ton of draft capital.

[#27TheDominator]

13 minutes ago, Tony The Wiz said:

But wait you are the expert. right? So if you say that the Bears won't draft a top 8 player, you know better than all of them. Really?!! 

Why so hostile?  Do you think every team has all these players rated identically or do you think some might have some slight variation?  Maybe a defensive player might be a bit higher on their board?  I'm not putting down your reviews.  I am well aware of what the internet thinks.  Frankly, the main thing I enjoyed about your reviews is that you didn't seem to follow the herd which I could throw up the names without thinking and some would be guys I wouldn't necessarily want to touch.