Mike Florio: 6 Teams that won't return to NFL playoffs in '10

[Jetkid94]

If Cincinnati's defense stays healthy, we will too. Who Dey baby.

you might lose to us though

[Jetkid94]

NE has gotten better. 38 - 11 is a actually a 71% winning percentage.

Keep dreamimg.

Its going to be funny when the Pats win in week 2. What excuse will you have then? Better start thinking of some.

Its going to be funny when the jets win the afc east. What excuse will you have then? Better start thinking of some.

[visajets]

Who is Mike Florio?????

[Doggin94it]

You're missing Stoic's point that one AFCE team must reach the postseason, and given the choices, Florio should rethink his 6 no-shows (and 6 repeats).

Yet again, you're missing the point. Not sure if he makes predictions, but he may well pick the Pats, or even the Jets, to win the division.

But that's not the exercise he's engaging in at the moment.

Let me put it this way - I know the future, and I offer you 100Million if you can predict the following correctly, right now:

One of these two teams will not make the playoffs this year - Jets or Chargers. One of them will.

Which one do you pick for $100M?

I'm the biggest Jets fan around, but given that choice, I take the Chargers 10 times out of 10. Not because they are better than the Jets (I think the Jets, Ravens and Colts are the 3 best teams in the AFC, if things don't fall apart [i.e. holdouts, injury to or regression by sanchez, etc.]). But the Chargers have literally no competition in their division, so they have almost a bye into the playoffs.

Do that exercise for all 12 playoff teams, and tell me which ones you would take the Jets as "more likely to return"?

For me, it's a 4 team list - the Pats (have to deal with Jets and Dolphins in the division), Bengals (have to deal with the Ravens and Steelers), Cardinals (no Warner) and Eagles (no McNabb, shaky D)

That means that they are not one of the "6 most likely to repeat" - since I think there are 7 teams with less obstacles to overcome than the Jets.

If you want to argue against Florio, stop focusing on the fact that 2 of the 6 are from the AFC East, and start talking about why the Jets are more likely to make the playoffs than one of the 6 teams he picked as "most likely to repeat" - the Pack, Vikes, Cowboys, Ravens, Colts and Chargers

[RutgersJetFan]

NE has gotten better. 38 - 11 is a actually a 71% winning percentage.

Meh. 12-2 pre. 2-2 post.

[Doggin94it]

Or, to put it another way:

I see the Chargers and Colts as having about a 90% chance of winning their divisions. Unless something disastrous happens (injury to Manning or Rivers, etc.), they should walk away with it. If they don't (i.e. even in that remaining 10%), I'd give the Colts about a 80% chance of making the playoffs as a wild card, and the Chargers about a 10% chance of making the playoffs. (The reason for the disparity is that if the Colts don't win the division, it's likely because they had a good season - 10-12 wins - but either the Texans or the Titans took a major leap forward and had a great season [13-15 wins]. I don't see anyone in the AFC West with a chance to do that, so if the Chargers miss the playoffs, it's likely they went 8-8 or 9-7. 10-12 wins has a decent chance of netting a wildcard. 8-9 does not)

Bottom line - I'd say the Colts have a 98% chance of making the playoffs, and the chargers have a 91% chance of making the playoffs.

I'd put the Cowboys, Ravens and Saints at about 70% chance of winning their divisions., and at about 60% chance of making the playoffs as wildcards even if they don't. (For all, I'd assume another team in their division had a great season, not that those teams collapsed to awful)

Bottom line - I'd give those teams a 88% chance of making the playoffs.

For the Packers and Vikings, I'd say they are roughly equal - call it a 50-50 chance of winning the division. But which ever team loses is highly likely to do so with 10 or more wins, and 9 at worst - and the NFC has a serious dearth of teams contending for the wildcard spots. So call it another 60% chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard.

Bottom line - I'd give those teams an 80% chance of making the playoffs

The next tier, to me, are the Jets. I'd say they have a 60% chance of winning their division - better than 50-50, since they are better than the dolphins or pats, but not much better than 50-50, since both those teams are dangerous. If the Jets miss the playoffs, I'd give them a 30% chance of making it as a wildcard - they'd be competing with the other of the two AFCE contenders along with a slew of potential WC teams in the AFC, and obviously wouldn't have had a great (13-15 win) season if they lost the division.

Bottom line, I'd give the Jets a 72% chance of making the playoffs.

Next up are the Eagles. I'll give them a 25% chance of making the playoffs (with the remaining 5% in the AFCE shared by the Giants and Skins), and a 50% chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard.

Bottom line, I'll give the Eagles a 62.5% chance of making the playoffs

Next is the Pats - I'll give them a 30% chance of winning the division. With Brady and Belichik, they're always a threat, so I'll split the remaining odds as 30% Pats, 10% Dolphins. If they lose the division, I'll give them the same 30% chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard as I did the Jets.

Bottom line, I'd give the Pats a 51% chance of making the playoffs.

Next we have the Bengals. I'll give them a 15% chance of winning the division (the other 15% in the AFCN goes to the Steelers), and the same 30% chance of making it as a wildcard.

Bottom line, I'd give the Bengals a 40.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Last we have the Cardinals. I'll give them a 30% chance of winning the division, and a 5% chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard (the odds of a wildcard coming out of the NFCW are worse even than the odds that one comes out of the AFCW).

Generously, that's a 33.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Now all of those numbers are way too precise, obviously. But notice: I'm predicting the Jets to win the AFC East - I give them a better chance than all of the other AFCE contenders. But if you're drawing an arbitrary cutoff line at "6 of last year's playoff teams with the highest odds of making the playoffs", the Jets would fall below it. As would the Pats.

[Mentos]

Perhaps, but call me crazy, I would call the AFC North slightly more competitive than the NFC South. Also consider that the 2008 Steelers didn't win 13 straight.

To further illustrate that the NFC South has been more competitive than the AFC North, here are the teams' records in divisional games-

AFC North

34-14 Steelers

25-23 Ravens

24-24 Bengals

13-35 Browns

NFC South

29-19 Panthers

23-25 Saints

22-26 Buccaneers

22-26 Falcons

I contend that coming off the 2008 season and Pittsburgh's Super Bowl title, that you would have laughed at Florio if he made a prediction for the 2009 season in which he had the Steelers missing the playoffs. That was my whole point with my first post in this thread.

[Doggin94it]

To further illustrate that the NFC South has been more competitive than the AFC North, here are the teams' records in divisional games-

AFC North

34-14 Steelers

25-23 Ravens

24-24 Bengals

13-35 Browns

NFC South

29-19 Panthers

23-25 Saints

22-26 Buccaneers

22-26 Falcons

I contend, that coming off the 2008 season and Pittsburgh's Super Bowl title, that you would have laughed at Florio if he made a prediction for the 2009 season in which he had the Steelers missing the playoffs. That was my whole point with my first post in this thread.

Notice that 3 of those AFC North teams have a better divisional record than any NFC South team than the Panthers. In other words, you have 3 teams getting fat on the Browns.

But that's beside the point. All that shows is that the teams in the NFC South have been roughly on the same level for the past 8 years. But having 4 historically mediocre teams doesn't make the NFC South more competitive this season, when there's a true elite team at the top of the heap.

[THE ILK]

NE has gotten better. 38 - 11 is a actually a 71% winning percentage.

Keep dreamimg.

Its going to be funny when the Pats win in week 2. What excuse will you have then? Better start thinking of some.

So zero championships is better?

What a clown!

[THE ILK]

The pats will forever be known as CHEATERS!

I remember looking at the standings that year and seeing an * next to their record.

At the bottom of the list was *Caught Cheating!

0EU1O-hGxgg

[greenerdaze]

Yet again, you're missing the point. Not sure if he makes predictions, but he may well pick the Pats, or even the Jets, to win the division.

But that's not the exercise he's engaging in at the moment.

If you want to argue against Florio, stop focusing on the fact that 2 of the 6 are from the AFC East, and start talking about why the Jets are more likely to make the playoffs than one of the 6 teams he picked as "most likely to repeat" - the Pack, Vikes, Cowboys, Ravens, Colts and Chargers.

Same answer; you're missing the point. The AFCE situation holds strong evidence that Florio's rationale is off because both the NYJ and NE are likely, not UNlikely, to reach the playoffs over the Bills and Dolphins. That alone implies that two, or more, of the teams are grouped wrongly. Never said the Jets had to make the playoffs necessarily, but both NE & NYJ shouldn't be in the no-show group (together).

To answer the other part, it wouldn't be farfetched if they both made the playoffs over any of those teams - except Indy, probably.

[Doggin94it]

Same answer; you're missing the point. The AFCE situation holds strong evidence that Florio's rationale is off because both the NYJ and NE are likely, not UNlikely, to reach the playoffs over the Bills and Dolphins. That alone implies that two, or more, of the teams are grouped wrongly. Never said the Jets had to make the playoffs necessarily, but both NE & NYJ shouldn't be in the no-show group.

To answer the other part, it wouldn't be farfetched if they both made the playoffs over any of those teams - except Indy, probably.

Not true, if you know anything about statistics. Remember, this isn't a prediction that the Jets and Pats will miss the playoffs (which would imply that the Dolphins or Bills would make it).

It's his opinion that they are both in the bottom 50% of last year's playoff teams in chances of getting back to the playoffs.

Which makes sense - because there's a decent chance that the Pats make the playoffs and the Jets don't, and a decent chance that the Jets make the playoffs and the Pats don't.

Again, read his intro to the article:

Earlier this week, I assumed that recent history will hold firm in 2010, and that half of the NFL teams that made it to the postseason in 2009 won't make it back this year.

Given that assumption, I listed the six teams most likely to return. So, for Part 2, let's look at the six that are the most likely to play no games beyond the final week of the regular season.

If he was saying "look at the six who won't be playing after the regular season", you'd have a point.

This is not a prediction that all six will not make the playoffs - just an assessment that, of the 12, these are the six least likely to make the playoffs.

The only way to argue with that is not to say "well, one of the Pats or Jets will likely make it" - it's to say "the Jets are more likely than [insert team of your choice from his "6 most likely column] because [fill in reason of your choice"

I should probably stop responding to you, but it annoys me when fellow jets fans are blindingly stupid; it reminds me of how much we actually earned our rep around the league as some of the worst educated fans around (like the guys sitting next to me at the stadium screaming for Sanchez to be benched after a bad quarter against Miami)

[L.S. Dylan]

I think both of the Titans will make it this year.

[Mentos]

Being on the same level and the teams having similar records and accomplishments indicates competitiveness.

Notice that 3 of those AFC North teams have a better divisional record than any NFC South team than the Panthers. In other words, you have 3 teams getting fat on the Browns.

But that's beside the point. All that shows is that the teams in the NFC South have been roughly on the same level for the past 8 years. But having 4 historically mediocre teams doesn't make the NFC South more competitive this season, when there's a true elite team at the top of the heap.

[PatriotReign37]

So zero championships is better?

What a clown!

Benny!

Pats are still winning Benny.

[THE ILK]

Benny!

Pats are still winning Benny.

So that's what they call getting romped on wild card weekend.

All their rings still have * in them.

[Bugg]

New flash!!!!! We're not making the playoffs

Friday, Jun. 18, 2010 - 11:25 a.m. ET

Earlier this week, I assumed that recent history will hold firm in 2010, and that half of the NFL teams that made it to the postseason in 2009 won't make it back this year.

Given that assumption, I listed the six teams most likely to return. So, for Part 2, let's look at the six that are the most likely to play no games beyond the final week of the regular season.

New York Jets

All-Star teams generate a lot of buzz, but they rarely accomplish anything when it counts.

In New York, the already enhanced expectations from a 9-7 season that ended with a berth to the AFC title game went through the roof of their roofless new stadium via the collection of big-name players like LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, and Jason Taylor.

Apart from the fact the Jets will be wearing a gigantic bull's-eye in every game, discontent among players who believe the team promised to "take care" of them could conspire to "take care" of the team's chances in 2010.

New England Patriots

Yes, the Patriots will be contenders for as long as quarterback Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick are in New England. But that doesn't mean they'll make it to the playoffs every year.

A vague sense has developed that the team's run of greatness is much closer to the end than to the beginning. Brady has been vocal regarding problems with work ethic and responsiveness to coaching, and his message may not be heeded by teammates given his decision to stay in L.A. for much of the offseason.

While the team has enough talent to excel, the rest of the league has caught up with the Pats

[Bleedin Green]

Notice that 3 of those AFC North teams have a better divisional record than any NFC South team than the Panthers. In other words, you have 3 teams getting fat on the Browns.

But that's beside the point. All that shows is that the teams in the NFC South have been roughly on the same level for the past 8 years. But having 4 historically mediocre teams doesn't make the NFC South more competitive this season, when there's a true elite team at the top of the heap.

Thank you Doggin. My point is not relative to one another, it's relative to the league. And as you pointed out, it's in regards to this season, no other time. Sure, I could certainly be wrong, I don't deny that, but when you look at last season there's certainly a disparity.

You had Steelers as the defending Champions and Ravens who have been crowned as one of the best in the NFL going against the Bengals who swept both of their asses. In the NFC South, you had two teams (the Falcons and Panthers) who were nothing more than just decent, nothing horrible but never impressive, and a team in the Bucs who has been on a continuous downward slide, trailing behind a team who won 13 consecutive games to start the regular season and then won the Super Bowl. Not only that, but the Saints proved to be the same ridiculous offense they were for years before, but put together a much improved defense along the way.

Oh yeah, and their QB isn't a serial rapist.

Sure anything can happen in the NFL, but to call them one of the teams most likely to not make the playoffs again this year is borderline retarded.

[Mentos]

Thank you Doggin. My point is not relative to one another, it's relative to the league. And as you pointed out, it's in regards to this season, no other time. Sure, I could certainly be wrong, I don't deny that, but when you look at last season there's certainly a disparity.

Oh, c'mon.

This whole thing started after you wrote,

"Of course, any list that has the Saints not making the playoffs should tell you its true worth."

[Mentos]

You had Steelers as the defending Champions and Ravens who have been crowned as one of the best in the NFL going against the Bengals who swept both of their asses.

The Bengals went 4-11-1 in 2008 and were 1-5 in divisional games.

One year ago at this time, if Florio made a list like this and he didn't have the Steelers making the playoffs you would have scoffed at it.

[Bleedin Green]

The Bengals went 4-11-1 in 2008 and were 1-5 in divisional games.

One year ago at this time, if Florio made a list like this and he didn't have the Steelers making the playoffs you would have scoffed at it.

So what are you exactly looking for here? A praise of Florio for his epic genius? Clearly there's little than I can say outside of agreement with his opinion that will appease you.

My opinion is simple, regardless of what may have happened with the Steelers. He's predicted the Super Bowl champions, who reside in a relatively uninspiring division, having a team who have had an exceptional offense for years, one of the best QBs in the NFL and put together a championship caliber defense to suddenly fall to the point of not even qualifying for the playoffs. I think it's idiotic and a desperate attempt to draw some attention while using as an excuse the percentage of teams that generally make it to the playoffs in consecutive years, with no real reason behind it other than that statistic.

[Mentos]

So what are you exactly looking for here? A praise of Florio for his epic genius? Clearly there's little than I can say outside of agreement with his opinion that will appease you.

My opinion is simple, regardless of what may have happened with the Steelers. He's predicted the Super Bowl champions, who reside in a relatively uninspiring division, having a team who have had an exceptional offense for years, one of the best QBs in the NFL and put together a championship caliber defense to suddenly fall to the point of not even qualifying for the playoffs. I think it's idiotic and a desperate attempt to draw some attention while using as an excuse the percentage of teams that generally make it to the playoffs in consecutive years, with no real reason behind it other than that statistic.

I actually don't like Florio. I just think anyone getting worked up over someone else's predictions in June is dopey. I was trying to show this with my initial post in this thread.

Every team in the NFC South was at least .500 two seasons ago. I am not sure it is uninspiring. I actually believe there is an excellent shot that the Saints will not repeat as division champions. I see one team in that division that has a good shot to suck (TB). I see one team in the AFC North that has a good shot to suck (Cleveland). The SB champ the last two seasons has come from each of these divisions. I fail to see why one of these divisions is clearly better than the other as you seem to believe.

[Jetsfan80]

So what are you exactly looking for here? A praise of Florio for his epic genius? Clearly there's little than I can say outside of agreement with his opinion that will appease you.

My opinion is simple, regardless of what may have happened with the Steelers. He's predicted the Super Bowl champions, who reside in a relatively uninspiring division, having a team who have had an exceptional offense for years, one of the best QBs in the NFL and put together a championship caliber defense to suddenly fall to the point of not even qualifying for the playoffs. I think it's idiotic and a desperate attempt to draw some attention while using as an excuse the percentage of teams that generally make it to the playoffs in consecutive years, with no real reason behind it other than that statistic.

Exactly. He's not incorrect about the concept that many teams who were in the playoffs a previous season fail to do so the next year. It just seems like he picked teams at random and offered up half-assed reasons for why they'll be missing out.

[Doggin94it]

The Bengals went 4-11-1 in 2008 and were 1-5 in divisional games.

One year ago at this time, if Florio made a list like this and he didn't have the Steelers making the playoffs you would have scoffed at it.

Yes - and it would have been an equally bad mistake. The only reason the Steelers had as bad a year as they did was they lost Polamalu, which took their defense from elite to above average. That's not something you can predict, or predict based on.

Going all in on 3-7 off-suit is a bad decision - even if the flop comes up 4-5-6 and you win the hand.

Backward looking analysis is a bad way of analyzing the value of predictions

[Doggin94it]

Exactly. He's not incorrect about the concept that many teams who were in the playoffs a previous season fail to do so the next year. It just seems like he picked teams at random and offered up half-assed reasons for why they'll be missing out.

Actually, I think he picked the 5 obvious ones with the fewest obstacles (Indy, Balt, SD, Dal, NO) and the 5 obvious ones with the most obstacles (NE, NY, Cin, Az, Phi) and realized he was left with Minnesota and GB - which he couldn't come up with a reason to split up.

So he punted them up to most likely, and picked one of the 5 - NO, since he could at least come up with a half-assed reason - to drop.

[Garb]

Look at all the Jets fan running 'round in a tizzy 'cause someone said their team won't make the playoff's. LOL! Look at the off season moves! How dare anyone not worship at the belly that is Rex Ryan and his merry group of swaggilicious egomaniacs? How can someone not proclaim the Jets Champs? If it is on paper, it must be! It has worked so well in the past. Tomlinson jersey's selling like hot cakes, much like the earlier savior, Lord Farve. Fans working themselves into a fervor over what most certainly will be....must be....just has to be! Right?

LOL!!

Jets fans...

[Doggin94it]

Look at all the Jets fan running 'round in a tizzy 'cause someone said their team won't make the playoff's. LOL! Look at the off season moves! How dare anyone not worship at the belly that is Rex Ryan and his merry group of swaggilicious egomaniacs? How can someone not proclaim the Jets Champs? If it is on paper, it must be! It has worked so well in the past. Tomlinson jersey's selling like hot cakes, much like the earlier savior, Lord Farve. Fans working themselves into a fervor over what most certainly will be....must be....just has to be! Right?

LOL!!

Jets fans...

Well, thank you for at least conceding that, on paper, the Jets are better than the Pats. It's a start.

[Jetsfan80]

Look at all the Jets fan running 'round in a tizzy 'cause someone said their team won't make the playoff's. LOL! Look at the off season moves! How dare anyone not worship at the belly that is Rex Ryan and his merry group of swaggilicious egomaniacs? How can someone not proclaim the Jets Champs? If it is on paper, it must be! It has worked so well in the past. Tomlinson jersey's selling like hot cakes, much like the earlier savior, Lord Farve. Fans working themselves into a fervor over what most certainly will be....must be....just has to be! Right?

LOL!!

Jets fans...

Oh man, Garb used TWO eye-roll emoticons in this post to tell us lowly Jets fans what's what. She must be right.

[PatriotReign37]

it will be because the better team won without recording. i feel so bad for the pats fans. to have their titles dirty must feel terrible.

Its sorta like the Yankees being caught with roids.

Ya know what I mean? I think you do.

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

This guy is pretty dead on. The Jets won't make the playoffs. It's too easy to see coming. 2010 Jets will be the new 2007 Tigers. Load up to make a big run after getting close and fall flat on their face.

[JustInFudge]

Well, thank you for at least conceding that, on paper, the Jets are better than the Pats. It's a start.

Oh man, Garb used TWO eye-roll emoticons in this post to tell us lowly Jets fans what's what. She must be right.

Jet fans arent allowed to have hope for their team and they are definitely not allowed to buy into the hype.

You know why? Because Garby said so and what she says goes. She's never been wrong, will never be wrong and because she is a Patriots fan she has wrote the book on how to be a real fan and what it takes to have a successful organization.

We should all be so lucky for Garby's pressence. We wouldnt know what to do as a fan without her.

Thank you Garby!!! Thank you.

[Garb]

Oh man, Garb used TWO eye-roll emoticons in this post to tell us lowly Jets fans what's what. She must be right.

I'm always right, lowly Jets fan.

Hey, I'm just trying to help you dopes out. Temper the expectations and be pleasantly surprised. The crazy azz hype is 'gonna kill yah if the team fails.

Oh, and stop following me Spicoli. It's like your obsessed or something.

[THE ILK]

Its sorta like the Yankees being caught with roids.

Ya know what I mean? I think you do.

Individual players on every team had steroid users.

The team known as the Yankees were never singled out, fined and docked draft picks for cheating, so how is it the same???

The team known as the patriots or cheaters were, you fool!

[Jetsfan80]

Hey, I'm just trying to help you dopes out. Temper the expectations and be pleasantly surprised. The crazy azz hype is 'gonna kill yah if the team fails.

No. You know what Garb, I'm not going to do that. That's the Patriots' way. Rex Ryan has made it very clear that the JETS way is to have bravado, talk big and expect greatness. And I'll follow that man anywhere.

Even if we fail this year, we'll be back to kick more ass the next year and the year after that as long as Rex and Rex disciples are around. This isn't a team that needs to win a championship and only a championship to make me proud. Its a team that will beat the ever-loving sh** out of you just because it can, and whatever the final score reads after 60 minutes is what it is. As time goes on, the titles will come.

For once, I don't have to be ashamed to be a Jets fan, and I'm going to enjoy the damn ride. Stop ordering people around, because there's nothing you can say to change the new and improved culture in these parts.

[#27TheDominator]

No. You know what Garb, I'm not going to do that. That's the Patriots' way. Rex Ryan has made it very clear that the JETS way is to have bravado, talk big and expect greatness. And I'll follow that man anywhere.

Even if we fail this year, we'll be back to kick more ass the next year and the year after that as long as Rex and Rex disciples are around. This isn't a team that needs to win a championship and only a championship to make me proud. Its a team that will beat the ever-loving sh** out of you just because it can, and whatever the final score reads after 60 minutes is what it is. As time goes on, the titles will come.

For once, I don't have to be ashamed to be a Jets fan, and I'm going to enjoy the damn ride. Stop ordering people around, because there's nothing you can say to change the new and improved culture in these parts.

**** YEAH! LET'S ****ING ROLL!