Bugg Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Eric Decker loses production with and AVERAGE QB. A bad one? http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/without-drew-brees-jimmy-graham-is-a-good-but-not-great-receiver The New Orleans Saints’ Jimmy Graham lost an arbitration hearing Wednesday in which he sought classification as a wide receiver rather than a tight end. Graham’s desire to be a wideout might seem counterintuitive to fantasy football players used to a game where being a tight end makes Graham even more valuable. But in the NFL, Graham will lose money as a result of the decision. He’s been designated with the Saints’ franchise player tag, which means that his compensation is determined by the top salaries in the NFL at his position. The five highest-paid NFL wide receivers make an average of about $12 million per season — more than the $7 million the top tight ends do. The arbitrator’s decision might seem unfair to Graham. Over the past three NFL seasons, Graham ranks eighth in the NFL in receiving yards, fourth in receptions and first in receiving touchdowns. He’s put up stats comparable to the best wide receivers — but he won’t be paid like one. But there’s a catch, and it has nothing to do with Graham’s position. Instead it involves his quarterback. Over the past three NFL seasons, Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees has ranked first in the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns and completions. Graham has been a big part of that. But even if we subtracted Graham’s receiving statistics from Brees’s totals, Brees would rank seventh, third and sixth in those categories. So we can say Brees’s numbers would still be very strong with an average tight end (or even with no tight end at all). But what would Graham’s numbers look like with an average QB? We can come to some reasonable estimates by using ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating. Unlike most other quarterback statistics, Total QBR seeks to isolate the contribution of the quarterback as opposed to his receivers and his offensive line. It does so by using play-by-play tracking to account for things such as misthrown balls, yards after the catch and defensive pressure. Unfortunately, there’s not yet any analog to QBR for wide receivers and tight ends. But we can use QBR to estimate the effect a quarterback has on his receivers’ statistics. The next couple of paragraphs, which detail the method, are going to be a little dry; scroll down if you want to see just the results. To come up with these estimates, I used a subcomponent of QBR called Pass EPA, which focuses on a quarterback’s passing performance (as opposed to Total QBR, which also accounts for his rushing statistics and his propensity to avoid sacks and draw penalties). I ran a series of regressions on team totals from the 2011-13 NFL regular seasons, which estimated a team’s receiving yards, receptions and receiving touchdowns as a function of its Pass EPA. In essence, this reflects what a team’s passing statistics would look like given average receivers and pass protection but its actual quarterbacks. For example, a team with the quarterbacking of the 2013 Dallas Cowboys (mostly Tony Romo) would project to about 360 receptions, 4000 passing yards and 29 touchdowns given average receivers and offensive linemen. We can then divide a team’s projected statistics by league-average figures to estimate what effect its quarterbacks had on its receivers. For example, the average team since 2011 has had 24 passing touchdowns. Since the 2013 Cowboys projected to 29 touchdowns instead based on their QBR — about 20 percent higher than average — this implies that Romo boosted his receivers’ touchdown totals by 20 percent. Thus, we can reduce the touchdown totals for Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and other Cowboys receivers by 20 percent to estimate how they would have done with league-average quarterbacking. Let’s return to Graham. His quarterback isn’t the good-but-not-consistently-great Romo; it’s the spectacular Brees. Here’s what I estimate Graham’s numbers would have looked like with an average quarterback instead of Brees: silver-datalab-graham-table-1 In the table above, REC, YDS and TD represent a receiver’s unadjusted receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Graham has been averaging about 90 receptions and 1,200 yards per year under Brees. I estimate that his totals would be more like 75 receptions and 900 yards with an average QB. And he’d go from having about 12 touchdowns per season to seven or eight instead. (Quarterbacks have an especially large impact on their receivers’ touchdown totals, in part because it requires consistent quarterbacking to get a team into the red zone.) These revised totals would still qualify Graham as an exceptional tight end — but they’d only be very good by the standard of a wide receiver. In the next chart, I’ve listed the actual and QB-adjusted receiving statistics for the top 50 players in the NFL as ranked based on a fantasy football scoring system of one point per reception, one point per 10 receiving yards and six points per receiving touchdown. (Fantasy football scoring systems place too much emphasis on touchdowns rather than yardage, but I’ll leave that argument for another day.) silver-datalab-graham-table-2 Based on his average fantasy points (FP) per season since 2011, Graham ranks third among all receivers and tight ends. But his FPs decline by almost 25 percent using his QB-adjusted statistics, so he falls to 14th place instead. Graham has benefited as much from his quarterbacks as any player in the NFL. Other pass-catchers for the Saints have been helped almost as much. So has Wes Welker, who left the New England Patriots and joined the Broncos just as Patriots quarterback Tom Brady began to show some signs of age. In Denver, Peyton Manning, apparently ageless, had perhaps the best QB season of all-time. The biggest gainer is the Browns’ Josh Gordon, who has posted excellent statistics despite a horrible quarterbacking situation in Cleveland. If Johnny Manziel lives up to the hype, Gordon could be a fantasy football monster next season (if he plays; Gordon failed a drug test and will be suspended for a yet to be determined number of games). For most other players, the effects are not so dramatic. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall rate as the No. 1 and No. 2 receivers according to both raw and QB-adjusted statistics. But the league’s best tight ends tend to fall with the adjustment for quarterback quality. Rob Gronkowski drops from No. 20 to No. 39, for instance. Witten falls from No. 21 to No. 31 and Antonio Gates from No. 42 to No. 48. This could be a fluke — it’s a small sample of players. But it could also mean that tight ends are especially dependent on having good QBs. Along with slot receivers like Welker (it might be best to think of tight ends like Graham as being analogous to slot receivers), they tend to rely on routes based on precision and timing rather than beating their man downfield. Running those routes — and catching passes in traffic — requires a lot of skill. But the quarterback’s impact may be proportionately higher. That may be part of why NFL teams do not pay the best tight ends as well as the best wideouts. 26 comments Add Comment NATESILVER2_LIGHT Nate Silver @natesilver538 Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 So now the QB isn't good enough for the weapons? JN > everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 so without brees, he's just a TE, and doesn't deserve WR money, even tho the arbitrator already decided that got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Seems like a lot of work for an obvious conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arsis Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 I really think humanity is starting to regress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bugg Posted July 5, 2014 Author Share Posted July 5, 2014 At a loss here: am I expecting too much from some of you? This fancy book learnin' too hard? Here is presented one of the premier statisticians in the world who makes a habit of crarawling around data and numbers in sports and politics explaining how some NFL receivers, though not superior ones.have their production rising or falling depending on the quality of the QB they play with. And if you read the chart(perhaps I'm expecting too much here) Eric Decker seems to be one of the most QB-dependent WRs in the NFL. Sorry to expect some reading comprehension. Silver admits that statistics may be be as accurate for the NFL as they may be for other sports. I know, because Rex, Geno will be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelticwizard Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 It's not that, it's just that we get hit with these numbers and ratings systems at an amazing pace and soon you begin to rebel. The NFL's own QB rating system has perfect not at 10 or 100, but at 140 something with a decimal, then these aftermarket statisticians chip in with their own systems. I know Nate Silver is something special, but still-as a guy who makes and posts graphs on other websites, I'm feeling overwhelmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arsis Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 I'm willing to bet that your statistics will be laughably wrong to the point that I have no idea why people are obsessed with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 At a loss here: am I expecting too much from some of you? This fancy book learnin' too hard? Here is presented one of the premier statisticians in the world who makes a habit of crarawling around data and numbers in sports and politics explaining how some NFL receivers, though not superior ones.have their production rising or falling depending on the quality of the QB they play with. And if you read the chart(perhaps I'm expecting too much here) Eric Decker seems to be one of the most QB-dependent WRs in the NFL. Sorry to expect some reading comprehension. Silver admits that statistics may be be as accurate for the NFL as they may be for other sports. I know, because Rex, Geno will be great! Why do you need fancy stats to come to the conclusion that WRs have better numbers with better QBs. That's like, duh, dude. And the adjusted chart had him catching 64, 850, and 9. With Geno at QB? I would be happy with that and it would help the offense immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bugg Posted July 5, 2014 Author Share Posted July 5, 2014 Why do you need fancy stats to come to the conclusion that WRs have better numbers with better QBs. That's like, duh, dude. And the adjusted chart had him catching 64, 850, and 9. With Geno at QB? I would be happy with that and it would help the offense immensely. No, an AVERAGE QB, NOT A SHEETY QB. Again, silly goose that I am, I expected some elemental reading comprehension. Again, becasue Rex, Geno will be GREAT. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 No, an AVERAGE QB, NOT A SHEETY QB. Again, silly goose that I am, I expected some elemental reading comprehension. Again, becasue Rex, Geno will be GREAT. Got it. Maybe Geno can be average? Oh wait, not possible because you said so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arsis Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 I don't get it. Bugg broke down the DaVinci code for the nfl. He can accurately predict everything with math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Bugg broke down the DaVinci code for the nfl. He can accurately predict everything with math. lol I don't agree with the statistical breakdown of how he'd just be a regular top-5 TE, but he plays with Drew Brees so therefore he puts up WR numbers (from another thread). I don' t care how much they look at every pass; they're missing the forest for the trees in their analysis. Brees throws to him so much because Graham is Graham, not just because Graham is a TE lucky enough to play with Brees. If that was the case, then Graham's numbers wouldn't be that much different from the Saints' prior TEs, which is far from reality. Plopping him on another team with a lesser QB, and only looking at the QB change and number of pass attempts is moronic. No analysis of the gameplan? What other quality targets are available to all teams? Their ground games? How close the defenses keeps the oppositions? lol. It's narrow-minded. Remember Ben Coates? As Bledsoe got better as a QB, Coates's numbers got worse. Only a fool thinks every play would unfold the same on another team just as it does on the Saints, minus who the QB is. Brees clearly helps his numbers, since he's pretty awesome, but the idea that Graham's numbers would necessarily drop to 800 yards and 9 TDs (or whatever it was) is dopey. Those are similar yards and a mere 4 TDs more than we were able to get out of Dustin Keller with a God-awful Mark Sanchez tossing it. Graham is way better than Keller, not only a little better. Graham is a unique-type talent for a TE. Basically there's been him, Gronk, and then everyone else. Others have had great games or great months, but no one's approached season-total numbers like these two. When Gronk was last healthy, the team also had Welker and Hernandez. As much as those two may have cut into Gronkowski's numbers, they also helped add to it by keeping double (never mind triple) teams off him. Point is you can't just plop him onto another team and say what his numbers would have been in a totally different situation. They may have been worse, and they may have been similar. When there are so few guys like him, you can't just assume either of them would have the same numbers as another player if their situations were swapped. A horse wearing blinders only sees what he's shown, and what he's looking at. The horse is ignoring the manner in which special/unique receivers affect so many things. Look at Megatron. His record-setting year he had Dustin Keller TD numbers. Despite catching 122 passes for almost 2000 yards for a big-armed QB who also set an NFL record for pass attempts. What would statistical analysis predict Calvin Johnson's 2012 TD total to be? Probably in the 15-20 range (12 minimum). How far outside of 1 standard deviation would 5 TDs be in a season like that? Dustin Keller had 815 yards with Mark Sanchez tossing it. So apparently these guys think Jimmy Graham would be only about 10% more productive than Dustin Keller. Amazing that Keller wasn't offered a multi-year contract at $6-7M a pop when we let him hit free agency. Just amazing. So what will Decker's numbers be? Depends on a lot of things. But the fact is he was averaging similar numbers with Kyle Orton in his 2nd season that he was with Peyton Manning in his 3rd-4th seasons. The major blow to his numbers was with Tebow, and Tebow quite simply isn't even a backup-quality QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Math is gay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernJet Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 strawman, we will be OK,,plus good chance Vick see field more that many folks want to admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamont_jordan_rules Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 lol @ OP getting all lovesick over nobody wanting to pull his abacus anal beads out of his rectum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 If math was a person, it would look like Mustard Man, smell like a wet dog, and it would hate football more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 If math was a person, it would look like Mustard Man, smell like a wet dog, and it would hate football more than anything Favorite sport: Math League Favorite athlete: Michael Sam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Favorite athlete: Michael Sam 2nd favorite: Jonathan Martin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 2nd favorite: Jonathan Martin Jason Collins should at least have #2. Geno's got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 lol @ OP getting all lovesick over nobody wanting to pull his abacus anal beads out of his rectum Ewww. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 1. This has been gone over dozens of times, but Decker has already played and succeeded with as sh*tty a QB as there is. No, he did not put up 85/1000+ and double digit TDs with Tebow/Orton, but he did a hell of a lot better than our #1 last year and that was as he was adjusting to the NFL. 2. Graham got flat out screwed. Didn't they statistically run him out of the slot like 75% of the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 1. This has been gone over dozens of times, but Decker has already played and succeeded with as sh*tty a QB as there is. No, he did not put up 85/1000+ and double digit TDs with Tebow/Orton, but he did a hell of a lot better than our #1 last year and that was as he was adjusting to the NFL. 2. Graham got flat out screwed. Didn't they statistically run him out of the slot like 75% of the time? yeah tebow was bad (geno today) and orton is serviceable (geno's ceiling)--a very apt comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 yeah tebow was bad (geno today) and orton is serviceable (geno's ceiling)--a very apt comparison. Even better, that "metric" (or whatever these math fairies call it) has Demaryius Thomas dropping further than Decker and in fact from in front of Decker to behind. Same with Jordy Nelson. He also had a less preciptious drop than Welker, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Gronkowski and several others, but he is on the Jets, so he must suck. Cause Wrecks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.