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dbatesman

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I've mentioned it on my site that soon teams are going to have to adjust their line pay structure because of changing defenses. You can't pay all the money to ferguson and get by on a penny tackle like hunter. There needs to be more balance. You can lessen your money on the interior (and in all honesty paying a center as much as the jets do is not worth it and I love mangold) but have to find talent outside. The jets just aren't structured to play in today's nfl.

There's a dude on PFF that's been writing this for years since the rule changes and everyone was crapping on him for quite some time. Blindside tackles simply aren't worth what they used to be financially, it's a very recent development in the game. There's not much Brick can do when Mario Williams is lining up on Hunter, and the entire point of spending so much in a pick and an extension on a guy like Brick is for that exact purpose.

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There's a dude on PFF that's been writing this for years since the rule changes and everyone was crapping on him for quite some time. Blindside tackles simply aren't worth what they used to be financially, it's a very recent development in the game. There's not much Brick can do when Mario Williams is lining up on Hunter, and the entire point of spending so much in a pick and an extension on a guy like Brick is for that exact purpose.

Yeah it's pretty wild. I ran the numbers using pffs database a few months back to grade the players on a pass/fail criteria and it was pretty clear that the biggest contributors to pass failures right now are right tackles and it's a steady move in that direction because of the changes in the defense and lack of investment at rt.

I was certainly in favor of the big extension we gave Mangold but the average additional pass failures would be lik1.5% for a center. The worst guy didn't give up much. It's really money that isn't invested properly when you see the difference between best and worst starting caliber player. I really think the team made a mistake not going back into the draft and getting a lineman this year especially opting for 2 high bust options, specifically a wr when you have no qb to get him the ball

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For all my bleak cynicism and references to FO and PFF, I've always held out some dim hope that Sanchez could become at least serviceable, especially given our defense. After attending the game tonight, I feel like we'll be lucky to finish .500 this season (and I'm someone who feels our defense will be absolutely beastly). The sad truth is that the advanced stats actually overrate Sanchez. Unless Sparano has some super-secret playbook that he's saving for the regular season, our entire passing offense consists of Sanchez staring down one guy. If said guy comes open, great. If not, Sanchez either a. throws it to him anyway, regardless of how many guys are covering him, or b. continues staring at him until he gets sacked. That's it. All discussions about Wayne Hunter and Shonn Greene and Brian Schottenheimer are pure window-dressing, and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

Whilst tailgaiting, someone asked me "who starts at QB for the Jets, Week 1, 2013?" This is the defining question of the current age of Jets football, and if someone can give me an answer that doesn't make me want to throw myself off a bridge, I would absolutely love to hear it.

Dunno, think he's over coached and Rex in general is bad for QB development. Sanchez can play, just think he needs a better environment

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Yeah it's pretty wild. I ran the numbers using pffs database a few months back to grade the players on a pass/fail criteria and it was pretty clear that the biggest contributors to pass failures right now are right tackles and it's a steady move in that direction because of the changes in the defense and lack of investment at rt.

I was certainly in favor of the big extension we gave Mangold but the average additional pass failures would be lik1.5% for a center. The worst guy didn't give up much. It's really money that isn't invested properly when you see the difference between best and worst starting caliber player. I really think the team made a mistake not going back into the draft and getting a lineman this year especially opting for 2 high bust options, specifically a wr when you have no qb to get him the ball

Don't even get me started on the Hill and Tebow trades. Good OL available to develop at 500k a year, but no, we traded for the $2.5 million backup that can't throw and extended Hunter for the same. And let's trade away yet another mid for a guy that screams of being a Year 3 WR on a 4-year deal when there's nobody to throw to him. How does that make any sense?

I just can't understand how this team came to fall into that category with RT's either. Especially with the obvious change with Woody to Hunter last year. 2011 should have been such an eye opener with what happened to Sanchez, and I don't get going all in on him for the next year or two if he wasn't going back to his old doings with OL through either the draft or FA. The sh*t is bizarre.

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Yeah it's pretty wild. I ran the numbers using pffs database a few months back to grade the players on a pass/fail criteria and it was pretty clear that the biggest contributors to pass failures right now are right tackles and it's a steady move in that direction because of the changes in the defense and lack of investment at rt.

I was certainly in favor of the big extension we gave Mangold but the average additional pass failures would be lik1.5% for a center. The worst guy didn't give up much.

First- how much do you think Rex contributed to that trend? A couple years ago he blew a lot of people's minds with his shifts and alignments and like that we became the number 1 nfl d, and in our copycat league I wonder if this trend caught on.

2nd- as someone who relies on a lot of charts and statistics myself I have to step back sometimes and work the data back into the picture. With that said if I'm reading your mangold comment properly, there's not much more value for his work, and yet go look at how we did without him? So is that more on our quarterback, are the numbers getting too much respect here, what's the issue? Personally I err on the history and statistical evidence until proven otherwise, but mangolds presence was definitely missed.

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sanchez holds the ball, and has pretty poor ability to sense a rush

but everyone here used to cry about check down chad taking the dump off. they wanted a guy with balls who would look downfield

lol

it's august you crybabies

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I just can't understand how this team came to fall into that category with RT's either. Especially with the obvious change with Woody to Hunter last year. 2011 should have been such an eye opener with what happened to Sanchez, and I don't get going all in on him for the next year or two if he wasn't going back to his old doings with OL through either the draft or FA. The sh*t is bizarre.

I was stunned they held onto Hunter until I really looked at the market. It was bleak. There was the possibility of making a move just for the sake of making one, but nobody out there was necessarily better. I have to think that the Jets unguaranteed his deal. I dont have any info on that but the way they make certain guys take small pay cuts it would be stunning if they let Wayne completely slide.

I also think the team is a little constrained by the cap right now. They could have created tons more space and chose not to. Seeing how mellow Rex was during the halftime interview I have to think the team has already internally discussed this as a waiting year and they dont want to make some of the mistakes that were made in 2005 that really sent the Jets into a bad funk financially. So rather than prorate tons of money and go into free agency they kept things as they were and left themselves the flexibility to move on from certain guys next year. I also would have to think they have the owners blessing on all of this maybe with a wink wink of putting Tebow on the field alot to help keep the team in the news even if they have a rebuild season.

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First- how much do you think Rex contributed to that trend? A couple years ago he blew a lot of people's minds with his shifts and alignments and like that we became the number 1 nfl d, and in our copycat league I wonder if this trend caught on.

2nd- as someone who relies on a lot of charts and statistics myself I have to step back sometimes and work the data back into the picture. With that said if I'm reading your mangold comment properly, there's not much more value for his work, and yet go look at how we did without him? So is that more on our quarterback, are the numbers getting too much respect here, what's the issue? Personally I err on the history and statistical evidence until proven otherwise, but mangolds presence was definitely missed.

The problem wasnt Mangold going down it was not having an NFL caliber backup behind him. The kid they had was in no way shape or form prepared for the NFL and the bright lights of NYC.

Just in terms of pass efficiency you can break a QBs performance down into pressure vs non pressure categories. I dont have the exact numbers in front of me but its something like they complete a pass 64% of the time, on average, when they have the perfect pocket and it drops to 43% of the time when they face pressure and get a pass off. Using those numbers you can come up with just how valuable a pressure is towards disrupting a play. If you didnt pressure him he would fail 36% of the time anyway now its 57%. So basically you can come up with a number of completions or incompletions a QB would have under ideal circumstances. Then you redo the numbers based on the pressure allowed with a sack always being negative and the pressure being negative 57% of the time. From there you get the increase in failures attributed to that lineman on the season, assuming he played with an average QB. The actual results are different (i.e Sanchez is brutal under pressure and has way more failures due to Hunter in real games than Eli with Diehl and McKenzie who were as bad as or worse than Hunter).

The average center allowed all of 1.7% extra failures on the season. The worst (of guys who played 25% of the pass snaps) was just 3%. The best was 0.29% so the range is small. They do help in other areas but they are not the cause of most problems in a passing game. By contrast the guards went from 0.45% to 6.8% and the tackles from 1.7% all the way to 9.3% extra failures attributed to poor blocking. In general your least amount of money should be spent on the center provided he is an adequate NFL player, unlike Baxter. It will be interesting to see how the money spend changes over time. Once a team draws a line in the sand at LT others will follow. Denver seems to have done it with Ryan Clady and quietly Miami has quietly done it with Jake Long inexplicably refusing to extend him despite the monstrous cap hit he has this season. If those teams hold fast and dont come anywhere near Joe Thomas money and are successful in keeping them or replacing them with lower cost players it could change the way teams value players along the line.

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The problem wasnt Mangold going down it was not having an NFL caliber backup behind him. The kid they had was in no way shape or form prepared for the NFL and the bright lights of NYC.

Just in terms of pass efficiency you can break a QBs performance down into pressure vs non pressure categories. I dont have the exact numbers in front of me but its something like they complete a pass 64% of the time, on average, when they have the perfect pocket and it drops to 43% of the time when they face pressure and get a pass off. Using those numbers you can come up with just how valuable a pressure is towards disrupting a play. If you didnt pressure him he would fail 36% of the time anyway now its 57%. So basically you can come up with a number of completions or incompletions a QB would have under ideal circumstances. Then you redo the numbers based on the pressure allowed with a sack always being negative and the pressure being negative 57% of the time. From there you get the increase in failures attributed to that lineman on the season, assuming he played with an average QB. The actual results are different (i.e Sanchez is brutal under pressure and has way more failures due to Hunter in real games than Eli with Diehl and McKenzie who were as bad as or worse than Hunter).

The average center allowed all of 1.7% extra failures on the season. The worst (of guys who played 25% of the pass snaps) was just 3%. The best was 0.29% so the range is small. They do help in other areas but they are not the cause of most problems in a passing game. By contrast the guards went from 0.45% to 6.8% and the tackles from 1.7% all the way to 9.3% extra failures attributed to poor blocking. In general your least amount of money should be spent on the center provided he is an adequate NFL player, unlike Baxter. It will be interesting to see how the money spend changes over time. Once a team draws a line in the sand at LT others will follow. Denver seems to have done it with Ryan Clady and quietly Miami has quietly done it with Jake Long inexplicably refusing to extend him despite the monstrous cap hit he has this season. If those teams hold fast and dont come anywhere near Joe Thomas money and are successful in keeping them or replacing them with lower cost players it could change the way teams value players along the line.

Well said. Thanks

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Mark Sanchez is more equipped to be an NFL quarterback than Tim Tebow. I can't stand Tim Tebow as a player, and don't think you can win with him... especially against a team that can score 17+, but this team may be better sutied to have Tebow play. If you could ever put Tebow's heart and desire into Sanchez, he'd be a good player. Unfortunately, Sanchez doesn't have that. Sanchez gets down as soon as the going gets tough. You can cite all the mid season 4th quarter wins you'd like. Show me in a big spot, season on the line, where he's come through.

If Locker beats out Hasselback, and they cut Hasselback, we need to think about it. Doesn't help long term, but it a vast improvement.

Not bringing someone in here who can compete as an actual QB is a shame.

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Don't even get me started on the Hill and Tebow trades. Good OL available to develop at 500k a year, but no, we traded for the $2.5 million backup that can't throw and extended Hunter for the same. And let's trade away yet another mid for a guy that screams of being a Year 3 WR on a 4-year deal when there's nobody to throw to him. How does that make any sense?

I just can't understand how this team came to fall into that category with RT's either. Especially with the obvious change with Woody to Hunter last year. 2011 should have been such an eye opener with what happened to Sanchez, and I don't get going all in on him for the next year or two if he wasn't going back to his old doings with OL through either the draft or FA. The sh*t is bizarre.

It's utter insanity. They've seen three years of Sanchez now, and instead of insulating themselves against the possibility of him maybe possibly potentially not being super-duper-awesome, they double down on him with the extension and the Tebow trade. This despite multiple veterans (Orton, Campbell) and mid-round draft picks (take your pick) sitting right there for the taking.

I don't even know how you fix it. The defense is good enough to keep us at or above .500 as long as Rex is here and probably beyond, which means we have no shot at drafting a good QB for the foreseeable future. Maybe Jason's right and they know that this year is quite possibly lost before it begins, in which case we'd probably try to shed some of the more onerous contracts (Sanchez and Tebow at the top of the list) and build around Brick, Mangold, and the DL. I just don't know if anyone in the organization has the sack for a full rebuild. It just feels like we're on the precipice of a total freefall and the FO has spent the entire offeason trying to give us that last little push.

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Mark Sanchez is more equipped to be an NFL quarterback than Tim Tebow. I can't stand Tim Tebow as a player, and don't think you can win with him... especially against a team that can score 17+, but this team may be better sutied to have Tebow play. If you could ever put Tebow's heart and desire into Sanchez, he'd be a good player. Unfortunately, Sanchez doesn't have that. Sanchez gets down as soon as the going gets tough. You can cite all the mid season 4th quarter wins you'd like. Show me in a big spot, season on the line, where he's come through.

If Locker beats out Hasselback, and they cut Hasselback, we need to think about it. Doesn't help long term, but it a vast improvement.

Not bringing someone in here who can compete as an actual QB is a shame.

remember when Tebow single handedly BEAT US last season?

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So rather than prorate tons of money and go into free agency they kept things as they were and left themselves the flexibility to move on from certain guys next year.

Harris and Holmes? Gotta believe they'll try and keep Cro and Revis so long as the QB situation remains unsolved. I'm still pissed we didn't at least explore trading Keller. The comp pick isn't going to be as high for what we could have traded him for, not to mention it'll be a year later.

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It's utter insanity. They've seen three years of Sanchez now, and instead of insulating themselves against the possibility of him maybe possibly potentially not being super-duper-awesome, they double down on him with the extension and the Tebow trade. This despite multiple veterans (Orton, Campbell) and mid-round draft picks (take your pick) sitting right there for the taking.

I don't even know how you fix it. The defense is good enough to keep us at or above .500 as long as Rex is here and probably beyond, which means we have no shot at drafting a good QB for the foreseeable future. Maybe Jason's right and they know that this year is quite possibly lost before it begins, in which case we'd probably try to shed some of the more onerous contracts (Sanchez and Tebow at the top of the list) and build around Brick, Mangold, and the DL. I just don't know if anyone in the organization has the sack for a full rebuild. It just feels like we're on the precipice of a total freefall and the FO has spent the entire offeason trying to give us that last little push.

Full rebuild?

The jets are slighty above avg QB play away from being legit contenders.... Why would you blow up one of the best supporting casts in football cause the QB blows?

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Full rebuild?

The jets are slighty above avg QB play away from being legit contenders.... Why would you blow up one of the best supporting casts in football cause the QB blows?

I'm assuming that all those guys are going to be old and expensive by the time our next QB is old enough to get the job done. Hope I'm wrong.

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For all my bleak cynicism and references to FO and PFF, I've always held out some dim hope that Sanchez could become at least serviceable, especially given our defense. After attending the game tonight, I feel like we'll be lucky to finish .500 this season (and I'm someone who feels our defense will be absolutely beastly). The sad truth is that the advanced stats actually overrate Sanchez. Unless Sparano has some super-secret playbook that he's saving for the regular season, our entire passing offense consists of Sanchez staring down one guy. If said guy comes open, great. If not, Sanchez either a. throws it to him anyway, regardless of how many guys are covering him, or b. continues staring at him until he gets sacked. That's it. All discussions about Wayne Hunter and Shonn Greene and Brian Schottenheimer are pure window-dressing, and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

Whilst tailgaiting, someone asked me "who starts at QB for the Jets, Week 1, 2013?" This is the defining question of the current age of Jets football, and if someone can give me an answer that doesn't make me want to throw myself off a bridge, I would absolutely love to hear it.

It is a condition known as "Neil O'Donnellism"-----although apparently with O'Donnell, he supposedly preferred sacks to incompletions as a way of preserving his QB rating. Sanchez just seems to be too dumb to throw it away.

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I was stunned they held onto Hunter until I really looked at the market. It was bleak. There was the possibility of making a move just for the sake of making one, but nobody out there was necessarily better. I have to think that the Jets unguaranteed his deal. I dont have any info on that but the way they make certain guys take small pay cuts it would be stunning if they let Wayne completely slide.

How they they "unguarantee" his deal without the player being an idiot and his agent being incompetent?

I also think the team is a little constrained by the cap right now. They could have created tons more space and chose not to. Seeing how mellow Rex was during the halftime interview I have to think the team has already internally discussed this as a waiting year and they dont want to make some of the mistakes that were made in 2005 that really sent the Jets into a bad funk financially. So rather than prorate tons of money and go into free agency they kept things as they were and left themselves the flexibility to move on from certain guys next year. I also would have to think they have the owners blessing on all of this maybe with a wink wink of putting Tebow on the field alot to help keep the team in the news even if they have a rebuild season.

That wouldn't explain Mark Sanchez' rather inexplicable contract extension, but I do get the same feeling about the team this year. I think it's a final evaluation of Sanchez, and that they'll either go all in behind him next year, or make a genuine move to find his replacement. Either way, this is not as championship team as currently constructed.

Kinda holding out hope that the Jets use their glut of DL to make a trade for a missing piece. If there's a team out there who's weak on the DL but deep on the OL, that would be a nice match.

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It's utter insanity. They've seen three years of Sanchez now, and instead of insulating themselves against the possibility of him maybe possibly potentially not being super-duper-awesome, they double down on him with the extension and the Tebow trade. This despite multiple veterans (Orton, Campbell) and mid-round draft picks (take your pick) sitting right there for the taking.

I don't even know how you fix it. The defense is good enough to keep us at or above .500 as long as Rex is here and probably beyond, which means we have no shot at drafting a good QB for the foreseeable future. Maybe Jason's right and they know that this year is quite possibly lost before it begins, in which case we'd probably try to shed some of the more onerous contracts (Sanchez and Tebow at the top of the list) and build around Brick, Mangold, and the DL. I just don't know if anyone in the organization has the sack for a full rebuild. It just feels like we're on the precipice of a total freefall and the FO has spent the entire offeason trying to give us that last little push.

At least we got The Terminator.

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I'm assuming that all those guys are going to be old and expensive by the time our next QB is old enough to get the job done. Hope I'm wrong.

I get you.. There's some truth to that, we had a win now team with a build for future QB.. tanny's ultimate failing, decent QB play in 2009 gets us a SB win, shame

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Full rebuild?

The jets are slighty above avg QB play away from being legit contenders.... Why would you blow up one of the best supporting casts in football cause the QB blows?

Because slightly above average QB play costs time and cap space. Neither of which the Jets have this year or next unless they get rid of some of the contracts hamstringing the cap. Sanchez and Holmes' contracts are killers, and on the other side there are a few guys beyond the DL grossly overpaid, (Scott, Harris, Pace). It wouldnt be a full rebuild, but like Bates said it'd be centered mostly around Brick, Mangold, and the DL. Keller won't be here next year either and the running game gets retooled regardless. Moore's on borrowed time and Hunter is obviously not in the long term plans, Slauson probably isn't either. That's almost a full overhaul between the LB's and entire offense sans 2 OL, Hill, and probably Greene. It might be worth exploring trading Revis as well considering the return we could get for him along with the salary dump that'd come with. You can't run a marathon without having to put some bandaids on your nipples.

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remember when Tebow single handedly BEAT US last season?

I remember Cromartie playing patty cake in the endzone and trying to ignore the fact that Tebow was running toward him and Smith chasing after ghosts. We had stopped the Tebow train the last 10 times before that.

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Because slightly above average QB play costs time and cap space. Neither of which the Jets have this year or next unless they get rid of some of the contracts hamstringing the cap. Sanchez and Holmes' contracts are killers, and on the other side there are a few guys beyond the DL grossly overpaid, (Scott, Harris, Pace). It wouldnt be a full rebuild, but like Bates said it'd be centered mostly around Brick, Mangold, and the DL. Keller won't be here next year either and the running game gets retooled regardless. Moore's on borrowed time and Hunter is obviously not in the long term plans, Slauson probably isn't either. That's almost a full overhaul between the LB's and entire offense sans 2 OL, Hill, and probably Greene. It might be worth exploring trading Revis as well considering the return we could get for him along with the salary dump that'd come with. You can't run a marathon without having to put some bandaids on your nipples.

There were better options available just this past off season, Campbell for example

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I'm assuming that all those guys are going to be old and expensive by the time our next QB is old enough to get the job done. Hope I'm wrong.

Meh, Rex can coach 11 tackling dummies into a top 5 defense. I'm not worried about that. Give Rex a franchise QB and we win the Super Bowl. Period. I'd say that's a reason for hope.

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Harris and Holmes? Gotta believe they'll try and keep Cro and Revis so long as the QB situation remains unsolved. I'm still pissed we didn't at least explore trading Keller. The comp pick isn't going to be as high for what we could have traded him for, not to mention it'll be a year later.

Harris definitely. Holmes probably. I think the Jets need him to have a statistical big year even if the team tanks to open up the trade market for him. If he doesnt nobody will want him. I think they have to look into trading Revis if the team falls apart. A corner can only do so much and his cap hits will be huge since every year its an added $3 million onto whatever he would be earning from the team anyway. I think a team would give a 1 for him, maybe even a little more if they were desperate. It doesnt take long in the NFL to turn things around if you do it right, but it can take long if you burden yourself with huge deals while trying to do it. Those guys contribute little in the rebuilding season(s) and by the time the team makes the big turn their skills are diminished and they make fat money to kill the cap. If things go bad Id be fine with blowing it up rather than chasing something that really ended in 2010 for the third year in a row. When you draft as poorly as the Jets have since 2008 and you dont have a QB this is what happens.

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How they they "unguarantee" his deal without the player being an idiot and his agent being incompetent?

That wouldn't explain Mark Sanchez' rather inexplicable contract extension, but I do get the same feeling about the team this year. I think it's a final evaluation of Sanchez, and that they'll either go all in behind him next year, or make a genuine move to find his replacement. Either way, this is not as championship team as currently constructed.

Kinda holding out hope that the Jets use their glut of DL to make a trade for a missing piece. If there's a team out there who's weak on the DL but deep on the OL, that would be a nice match.

The Sanchez deal itself isnt really a cap killer because of the position he plays. Most of it was just window dressing. The cost to go away from him in 2014 is relatively cheap. I just dont get why they didnt play hardball with him.

You have to remember that Hunters deal was not guaranteed until mid February. What that meant is that the Jets could have cut him in February and had a $0 cap hit. Hunter was brutal last year and odds are he would not have gotten another job. He definitely would not have found one earning $2.5 million as he would have been a vet minimum player. What you would do is go to the player, say option A is to stay on the team, penciled in as a starter, but we want the right to cut you without penalty so you give up the guarantee (or maybe you guarantee a smaller amount equal to the vet min) or Option B is to get cut after every media outlet in the country has scapegoated you as the worst lineman in the NFL and take your chance of finding another job that pays you over $2 million. Clearly a player is taking Option A with the staff that knows him and has used him as a backup in the past.

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There were better options available just this past off season, Campbell for example

We're past that and that wasn't Bates' point anyways. He was speaking about long term effects of holding on to the dead weight we're dragging along in money, which is what hamstrung us this past offseason and like Jason said we're going to be getting rid of through '13-14. For reasons of either age or money, Sanchez, Holmes, Moore, Slauson, Keller, Hunter, and this stable of running backs sans Greene are not in the long term plans for this team. Ducasse probably isn't either. Throw in the 3 LB's previously mentioned as well. If you have a problem with the wording and don't want to define that as a full rebuild, that's fine, but that's an awfully big overhaul. It's happening.

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Harris definitely. Holmes probably. I think the Jets need him to have a statistical big year even if the team tanks to open up the trade market for him. If he doesnt nobody will want him. I think they have to look into trading Revis if the team falls apart. A corner can only do so much and his cap hits will be huge since every year its an added $3 million onto whatever he would be earning from the team anyway. I think a team would give a 1 for him, maybe even a little more if they were desperate. It doesnt take long in the NFL to turn things around if you do it right, but it can take long if you burden yourself with huge deals while trying to do it. Those guys contribute little in the rebuilding season(s) and by the time the team makes the big turn their skills are diminished and they make fat money to kill the cap. If things go bad Id be fine with blowing it up rather than chasing something that really ended in 2010 for the third year in a row. When you draft as poorly as the Jets have since 2008 and you dont have a QB this is what happens.

That's really all it comes down to isn't it? You can only blow so many first rounders on nickel backs and bust DE/QB's, or mid rounders on FB's and expensive rentals for starters before this sh*t catches up with you. None of this crap with the cap becomes this much of a problem when you draft well. This didn't just magically happen overnight.

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