Speed Kills: How draft picks could get "burned" by 40 times at combine.

[Villain The Foe]

Since I know half of Jetnation has been up since 9am this morning to watch the WR's run their combine drills, many fans have been a bit sceptical on WR's that don't possess "top end speed", associating that fact to the theory that WR's lacking such speed lack the ability to perform or to separate from defenders. Below is a stat from the NFL I'd like you guys to check out.

 

"According to the NFL, 15 receiver prospects have run a sub 4.40 in the 40yd dash the last 5 years. Of those, Mike Wallace is the only receiver to produce a 1,000 yard season (2010-2011). Wallace Heyward-bey and johnny Knox are also the only receivers to reach 1,000 career yards."

 

 

With all the hype surrounding guys with track-like speed, it's been the "slower" possession type receivers that have really flourished in the league and in the face of criticism. 

 

On that note, I can't wait to see Jordan Matthews perform at the combine today. 

[Larz]

landry is the guy

 

he can actually catch the ball and stuff

[TehFalcon63]

Hmm, maybe what I say has some ground.

[Villain The Foe]

landry is the guy

 

he can actually catch the ball and stuff

I think Landry is the exception. Ive said it multiple times that he may have the best hands in the draft. Kid will definitely be sick in the league. He can catch the deep ball under pressure with total body control, something that I believe separates him from Cooks. 

 

Landry is a baller. 

[Be_a_Jet]

I know Cooks just had the best time and that goes against the point of your article but if he is available in the second round id love to have him. He has plenty of experience and receptions in college Im not worried about drops. His speed is obvious and although he is not a tall receiver, if he is available in the second round I would sign him up immediately. 

 

Granted, this is assuming some of my other favorites are gone. I would still take Benjamin, Matthews, Beckham over him. But I would take Cooks over landry. 

[LionelRichie]

the 40-yard dash has become so overrated in recent years.   these kids are training like track sprinters with a program designed to peak at the combine.    most, if not all of these guys will show up at training camp slower.    the tape doesn't lie and I hope the Jets don't pay any attention to the combine numbers - almost totally useless.  

[Villain The Foe]

I know Cooks just had the best time and that goes against the point of your article but if he is available in the second round id love to have him. He has plenty of experience and receptions in college Im not worried about drops. His speed is obvious and although he is not a tall receiver, if he is available in the second round I would sign him up immediately. 

 

Granted, this is assuming some of my other favorites are gone. I would still take Benjamin, Matthews, Beckham over him. But I would take Cooks over landry. 

I wouldnt mind drafting Cooks, like you said if those other guys are off the board. Im not impressed with Kelvin Benjamin as like others. I believe that he's a developmental WR and the Jets can't afford to have another WR like that. Jordan Matthews just ran a faster 40 than Lee. I actually didn't expect that. I thought Matthews was about a 4.5 guy at best, but I thought Lee would have been a 4.4 easily. 

[Villain The Foe]

the 40-yard dash has become so overrated in recent years.   these kids are training like track sprinters with a program designed to peak at the combine.    most, if not all of these guys will show up at training camp slower.    the tape doesn't lie and I hope the Jets don't pay any attention to the combine numbers - almost totally useless.  

For the most part I agree. There is a function to the 40 that does translate to the field but it's nothing significant enough to pull a "raider surprise" like heyward-bey. I want a guy who can catch the football. That is #1 on my list. If you can get that then you can work with everything else. There's no reason to have a guy that can blow off the top of a defense yet can't catch the ball consistently. My #2 requirement is route running, then #3 is strength and footwork to beat the press. The 40 has nothing to do with the true function of a WR. Arguably the greatest WR of all time ran a sub 4.75 yet had legendary hands, elite route running and never got caught from behind. I'll take that over 4.24 any day. 

[LionelRichie]

For the most part I agree. There is a function to the 40 that does translate to the field but it's nothing significant enough to pull a "raider surprise" like heyward-bey. I want a guy who can catch the football. That is #1 on my list. If you can get that then you can work with everything else. There's no reason to have a guy that can blow off the top of a defense yet can't catch the ball consistently. My #2 requirement is route running, then #3 is strength and footwork to beat the press. The 40 has nothing to do with the true function of a WR. Arguably the greatest WR of all time ran a sub 4.75 yet had legendary hands, elite route running and never got caught from behind. I'll take that over 4.24 any day. 

 

agree 100%.    catch the ball and beat press coverage - that is exactly what the Jets need.  

 

when you are measure to the .01 of a second so much of a 40-yd dash is the start and playing wr is not the same as a track start.  

[Villain The Foe]

agree 100%.    catch the ball and beat press coverage - that is exactly what the Jets need.  

 

when you are measure to the .01 of a second so much of a 40-yd dash is the start and playing wr is not the same as a track start.  

Also, you can get a WR who's fast when running the 40 who can't break away with pads on and a defender in front of him. Meanwhile you can get a guy like Larry fitzgerald that ran like a 4.65 yet on the football field will completely embarrass your #1 cb.

[CrazyCarl40]

So, Evans basically ran his way into the top 10 or 12 today didn't he?

[Matt39]

So, Evans basically ran his way into the top 10 or 12 today didn't he?

 

Official time was 4.53 fwiw

[Villain The Foe]

So, Evans basically ran his way into the top 10 or 12 today didn't he?

I think so. I'd say he solidified it. 

[jetsjetsjetss]

40 yard dash has its merits.

 

I was seriously skeptical about evans but running a 4.5 or whatever he is much faster then i thought he was and would love to grab him at 18

[RutgersJetFan]

The fact that you actually tried to come up with a double entendre and put it in quotation marks makes my balls hurt.

[BroadwayJoe12]

the 40-yard dash has become so overrated in recent years.   these kids are training like track sprinters with a program designed to peak at the combine.    most, if not all of these guys will show up at training camp slower.    the tape doesn't lie and I hope the Jets don't pay any attention to the combine numbers - almost totally useless.  

 

Most of the guys are current or ex-track athletes, the ones that you need to watch out for are the guys who surprise you.  No one was surprised by Beckham, Cooks or Watkins running sub 4.4, but it's the Matt Jones' of the world that you need to be careful of.  Idzik and MM had a great piece on how they use the combine and senior bowl as just another learning tool: if someone does something unexpected, whether good or bad, it usually just makes them go back to the tape and figure out what's up. Usually it just re-firms what they believe. At least that's what I got from their interview. 

 

 

Another new thing that Idzik did for our scouting team: he still has regional scouts who look at all players in say the North West region, but then there's another scout who's sole job is WRs, RBs etc. So if it comes time for an opinion on a player, they have one guy who's seen every single player in that positional unit. Thought that was pretty interesting.

[BroadwayJoe12]

The fact that you actually tried to come up with a double entendre and put it in quotation marks makes my balls hurt.

 

[Villain The Foe]

Most of the guys are current or ex-track athletes, the ones that you need to watch out for are the guys who surprise you.  No one was surprised by Beckham, Cooks or Watkins running sub 4.4, but it's the Matt Jones' of the world that you need to be careful of.  Idzik and MM had a great piece on how they use the combine and senior bowl as just another learning tool: if someone does something unexpected, whether good or bad, it usually just makes them go back to the tape and figure out what's up. Usually it just re-firms what they believe. At least that's what I got from their interview. 

 

 

Another new thing that Idzik did for our scouting team: he still has regional scouts who look at all players in say the North West region, but then there's another scout who's sole job is WRs, RBs etc. So if it comes time for an opinion on a player, they have one guy who's seen every single player in that positional unit. Thought that was pretty interesting.

I like Idzik. 

[LionelRichie]

Most of the guys are current or ex-track athletes, the ones that you need to watch out for are the guys who surprise you.  No one was surprised by Beckham, Cooks or Watkins running sub 4.4, but it's the Matt Jones' of the world that you need to be careful of.  Idzik and MM had a great piece on how they use the combine and senior bowl as just another learning tool: if someone does something unexpected, whether good or bad, it usually just makes them go back to the tape and figure out what's up. Usually it just re-firms what they believe. At least that's what I got from their interview. 

 

 

Another new thing that Idzik did for our scouting team: he still has regional scouts who look at all players in say the North West region, but then there's another scout who's sole job is WRs, RBs etc. So if it comes time for an opinion on a player, they have one guy who's seen every single player in that positional unit. Thought that was pretty interesting.

 

a buddy of mine used to sell decision making software.   it's typically used for doing 'what-if' scenarios related to budgets and other mundane corporate decisions.   about 2 years ago he cracked into the NFL market and about 5 or 6 different NFL teams use it for drafting and draft reviews to see what they missed in seasons past.   

[Villain The Foe]

The fact that you actually tried to come up with a double entendre and put it in quotation marks makes my balls hurt.

"Tried" "?" 

[BroadwayJoe12]

a buddy of mine used to sell decision making software.   it's typically used for doing 'what-if' scenarios related to budgets and other mundane corporate decisions.   about 2 years ago he cracked into the NFL market and about 5 or 6 different NFL teams use it for drafting and draft reviews to see what they missed in seasons past.   

 

Interesting stuff. These multi-billion dollar organizations are finally being treated as such and are bringing all sorts of new technology into the fold. I would love to be in the war-room for the entire draft week, would be awesome.

[Il Mostro]

Also, you can get a WR who's fast when running the 40 who can't break away with pads on and a defender in front of him. Meanwhile you can get a guy like Larry fitzgerald that ran like a 4.65 yet on the football field will completely embarrass your #1 cb.

 

 

This is the big question I have about Cooks.  Despite having speed, can he get separation from NFL CB's?  His top side might just wind up being a very good slot guy.

[T0mShane]

The fact that you actually tried to come up with a double entendre and put it in quotation marks makes my balls hurt.

Don't you mean "balls"?

[Villain The Foe]

This is the big question I have about Cooks.  Despite having speed, can he get separation from NFL CB's?  His top side might just wind up being a very good slot guy.

Exactly. Alot of these top-end-speed WR types have had so much success with their pure speed going back to middle school that they've never had to sharpen the skill of breaking down a defender through technique because of their success of being such a fast runner. When they become professionals they tend to be exposed as great athletes but mediocre football players. Not saying that Cooks cant ball, but his 40 time certainly wont convince me that he can ball. 

[Villain The Foe]

Hmm, maybe what I say has some ground.

Wait, is this....Teh Falcon???

 

How the heck did I overlook you in this thread. Its been forever man. The heck you been?

[bitonti]

 "According to the NFL, 15 receiver prospects have run a sub 4.40 in the 40yd dash the last 5 years. Of those, Mike Wallace is the only receiver to produce a 1,000 yard season (2010-2011). Wallace Heyward-bey and johnny Knox are also the only receivers to reach 1,000 career yards."  

This statement doesn't seem true. Julio JOnes blazed a sub 4.4 and has been very successful. More than 5 years ago but ditto Calvin Johnson. 

[#27TheDominator]

the 40-yard dash has become so overrated in recent years.   these kids are training like track sprinters with a program designed to peak at the combine.    most, if not all of these guys will show up at training camp slower.    the tape doesn't lie and I hope the Jets don't pay any attention to the combine numbers - almost totally useless.  

 

The first part is true, but IMO it is exactly why the numbers should not be ignored. You should not necessarily fall in love with a guy who runs well, but if a guy doesn't it is a huge red flag.  What Broadway says is very true.  What about a guy like De'Anthony Thomas?  How was he scoring if he is not that fast?  I read he ran a  4.34, and now see it listed in the 4.5s.  I wonder about his shuttle runs.

[Matt39]

The first part is true, but IMO it is exactly why the numbers should not be ignored. You should not necessarily fall in love with a guy who runs well, but if a guy doesn't it is a huge red flag.  What Broadway says is very true.  What about a guy like De'Anthony Thomas?  How was he scoring if he is not that fast?  I read he ran a  4.34, and now see it listed in the 4.5s.  I wonder about his shuttle runs.

 

The wide hashes in college are a huge factor. 

[HessStation]

the 40-yard dash has become so overrated in recent years. these kids are training like track sprinters with a program designed to peak at the combine. most, if not all of these guys will show up at training camp slower. the tape doesn't lie and I hope the Jets don't pay any attention to the combine numbers - almost totally useless.

Maybe relative to 10-15 years ago but relative to each other it still gives you a good idea since they're incorporating the same training leading up to it.

[HessStation]

agree 100%. catch the ball and beat press coverage - that is exactly what the Jets need.

when you are measure to the .01 of a second so much of a 40-yd dash is the start and playing wr is not the same as a track start.

You guys are arguing two different points too. Yes a fast 40 doesn't tell you who's a good WR or football player....but it does tell you who's fast. And of course some guys are just game fast and some aren't. And there's taking the right angles whatnot, which seems to be a lost art for a lot of DBS.

[LionelRichie]

You guys are arguing two different points too. Yes a fast 40 doesn't tell you who's a good WR or football player....but it does tell you who's fast. And of course some guys are just game fast and some aren't. And there's taking the right angles whatnot, which seems to be a lost art for a lot of DBS.

 

I'm not sure that I follow what you're saying.    When you measure to the .01 and you are only running 40 yards there is a huge emphasis on the start.   in fact, the slower guy could have a better time if he has a better start.  

 

the best way to do it would be to run 50 yards but only time the last 40.    this would give everyone a chance to get to full speed before the clock started.   

 

People get so caught up in these 40 times and they are largely irrelevant when it comes to predicting success in the NFL.    The Jets passed on a real WR to take Stephen Hill and his 4.36 40-yard dash.    I would gladly take ALshon Jeffrey's 4.49 any day of the week over the colossal pile of Suck that is Stephen HIll.  

 

My guess is that if the Jets never went to the combine  or looked at 40 times they would have taken Jeffrey over Hill.   Instead, Tanny got a hard-on for HIll's speed when the game tape didn't show an NFL player.  

[HessStation]

I'm not sure that I follow what you're saying. When you measure to the .01 and you are only running 40 yards there is a huge emphasis on the start. in fact, the slower guy could have a better time if he has a better start.

the best way to do it would be to run 50 yards but only time the last 40. this would give everyone a chance to get to full speed before the clock started.

People get so caught up in these 40 times and they are largely irrelevant when it comes to predicting success in the NFL. The Jets passed on a real WR to take Stephen Hill and his 4.36 40-yard dash. I would gladly take ALshon Jeffrey's 4.49 any day of the week over the colossal pile of Suck that is Stephen HIll.

Exactly my point, Hill's 40 still makes him fast, just not a good WR. 40s also helped a guy like Chris Johnson's worth. Or Calvin Johnson, etc etc. It's just one component in the overall scale but it's still an important, valid component.

[HessStation]

I'm not sure that I follow what you're saying. When you measure to the .01 and you are only running 40 yards there is a huge emphasis on the start. in fact, the slower guy could have a better time if he has a better start.

the best way to do it would be to run 50 yards but only time the last 40. this would give everyone a chance to get to full speed before the clock started.

People get so caught up in these 40 times and they are largely irrelevant when it comes to predicting success in the NFL. The Jets passed on a real WR to take Stephen Hill and his 4.36 40-yard dash. I would gladly take ALshon Jeffrey's 4.49 any day of the week over the colossal pile of Suck that is Stephen HIll.

My guess is that if the Jets never went to the combine or looked at 40 times they would have taken Jeffrey over Hill. Instead, Tanny got a hard-on for HIll's speed when the game tape didn't show an NFL player.

That's also what make the process fun LR, that it's not an exact science, you have to take the guys production, skill set, intelligence, speed (40), explosion (vert/broad), quickness/agility (3 cone, shuttle), strength (bench), work ethic, leadership all into consideration. How do you weight that scale sorta thing...

[Villain The Foe]

This statement doesn't seem true. Julio JOnes blazed a sub 4.4 and has been very successful. More than 5 years ago but ditto Calvin Johnson. 

You're right about Jones. He's a sub 4.40 and had over 1,000 yds in his 2nd year.

 

This info obviously isnt entirely correct, though it still provides enough evidence to show that 40 times are overblown. 

 

[pedro55]

a buddy of mine used to sell decision making software.   it's typically used for doing 'what-if' scenarios related to budgets and other mundane corporate decisions.   about 2 years ago he cracked into the NFL market and about 5 or 6 different NFL teams use it for drafting and draft reviews to see what they missed in seasons past.   

 

so he worked for Decision Lens.