Will Bowles Stretch Jets run of Success With Rookie Head Coaches?

[JetNation]

By Glenn Naughton

 

Believe it or not, the New York Jets, fresh off of a disastrous 4-12 season, have a bit of history on their side that suggests a 2015 playoff appearance isn’t at all out of the question.

On paper, rookie head coach Todd Bowles will be taking over a team with significantly more talent than that of the three men who preceded him in Rex Ryan, Eric Mangini and Herm Edwards.  Each of those rookie head coaches took over a struggling franchise, and all managed to guide the Jets to a playoff appearance in their first season.

First up was Edwards who was hired by owner Woody Johnson following the rapid and unexpected departure of Al Groh who was hand-picked by Hall-of-Famer Bill Parcells.

In Groh’s lone season with New York, the Jets finished with a respectable but somewhat misleading 9-7 record.  On the surface, not a bad start to his head coaching career, but a late-season collapse overshadowed what was a once-promising season.

Sitting at 9-4 after the season’s first thirteen games, the Jets had a legitimate shot to make the playoffs if they could pull out just one win over the season’s final three games, but it wasn’t to be.  The Jets would drop their final three contests to the Oakland Radiers, Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens before Groh bolted for a job with his alma mater, the University of Virginia.

Edwards was up next and inherited pro-bowl quarterback Vinny Testeverde who would guide the Jets to a 10-6 record despite being miscast in offensive coordinator Paul Hackett’s conservative scheme.

Testeverde and the Jets went 10-6 in Edwards’ rookie season as a head coach.

 

Following a solid 7-4 start, Edwards’ Jets were far different than Groh’s team during the previous season.  Needing a strong finish to make the post-season, the Jets won three of their final four games to earn an unlikely playoff berth on the road where they would play the Oakaland Raiders.

The Jets would travel to Oakland where they were eviscerated by the Raiders in a 38-24 loss that saw Oakland gain over 500 yards of offense, 215 of which came on the ground.

Despite Edwards being another head coach with a defensive background, the loss to the Raiders marked the fourth time on the season in which Jets surrendered at least 190 rushing yards.

The Jets would go on to make the post-season twice over the next three seasons, both of which ended with divisional round losses before Edwards was let go following a 4-12 record in 2005.

Hired away from Bill Belichick and the Patriots, Eric Mangini came on board following Edwards’ dismissal and once again a first-year head coach paid immediate dividends.

Another defense-oriented hire, Mangini took over the much maligned 2005 team with the biggest difference being a healthy Chad Pennington, something Edwards didn’t have one year before.

Far from an elite quarterback, Pennington still represented a vast improvement over what the Jets had to work with for much of the previous season that featured Brooks Bollinger under center for nine games as Pennington and Testeverde were injured and ineffective.

With some stability at the quarterback position and a pair of wide receivers in Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery who would combine for just over 2,000 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns through the air, the Jets would finish up the season at 10-6 with a first-round playoff game in New England.

The pre-game story-line revolved heavily around Mangini having an opportunity, as a rookie head coach, to knock his mentor, Bill Belichick out of playoff contention.

However, like so many others before him, Mangini saw his Jets get lambasted by Tom Brady and the Patriots.  With no answer for New England’s offensive attack, Gang Green would suffer a three-touchdown loss, 37-16 as the Pats ran the ball 38 times for 158 yards and Brady threw a pair of touchdowns with no interceptions in what would be Mangini’s only playoff appearance.

Much like the aforementioned Groh, Mangini was given his walking papers following an epic collapse in 2008.

After convincing hall of fame quarterback Brett Favre to agree to a trade to New York, Mangini’s Jets came out of the gate strong, starting the season 8-3 sitting atop the AFC East.  The division was there for the taking, but the wheels would eventually fall off.

The strong start was washed away as the Jets dropped four of their last five games and missed out on a chance to get Mangini to the post-season for what would have been his second appearance.

An injured, overworked Favre couldn’t get Mangini and the Jets to the playoffs.

Following the season, it was revealed that Mangini stuck with Favre despite a torn tendon in his biceps, and even with a strong rushing attack, continued to tax Favre with a heavy workload who averaged over 30 pass attempts per game down the stretch.  The future hall of famer topped out at staggering 40 passes in a season-ending loss to the Dolphins in Miami.

Mangini eventually gave way to the larger than life personality of Rex Ryan who had previously served as the Defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens.

Upon arriving in New York, Ryan and Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum made a call to Favre in an attempt to convince him to return to New York for a second season.  Favre declined, and Ryan went to battle with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.

Easily the worst of the three previous quarterbacks in Testeverde, Penningon and Favre, expectations around the league were low as Sanchez was widely considered a project who had thrown fewer than 500 passes in his three seasons at USC.

Even Still, Jets fans saw Ryan propel the Jets defense from 18th to 1st in the NFL with the addition of two key players from his time with the Ravens in linebacker Bart Scott and safety Jim Leonhard.

As many predicted, Sanchez struggled and the Jets did everything they could to protect the youngster as they ran the ball 607 times for over 2,700 yards and limited the rookie to 364 pass attempts.  He would complete just 53% of those passes while throwing 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.

Luckily for Sanchez, the league’s best defense and rushing attack carried him and Ryan to the post-season where they would win road playoff games against the Cincinatti Bengals and San Diego Chargers before being ousted by Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.  Darrelle Revis, Dwight Lowery, Donald Strickland and Lito Sheppard weren’t able to contain the Colts.

Peyton Manning was too much for Revis, Coleman, Strickland and Sheppard.

Under Ryan, the Jets would duplicate  their early success as they became just the second team to win a playoff game against the Patriots in Foxboro during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, joining Ryan’s former team, the Baltimore Ravens before being knocked out in the AFC championship game by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

However, that would be the last time Ryan’s Jets would sniff a playoff game as his team finished 8-8, 6-10, 8-8 and 4-12 over his final four seasons before owner Woody Johnson showed him the door.

So as pundits and analysts almost unanimously count the Jets out as a 2015 playoff contender, we sit and wait to see if under another rookie head coach, they can pick themselves up off the mat, and make another unlikely run at the post season berth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[Maxman]

I never thought about the pest few regimes having success in year 1. Interesting.

I do think this is al playoff team though. The parts are coming back to earth. doing well in the division will be a must.

[FSU_Jet]

Donald Strickland and Lito Sheppard are completely to blame for that loss to Indy on the road.

[AFJF]

Donald Strickland and Lito Sheppard are completely to blame for that loss to Indy on the road.

I blame Rex...Jets win that game by 3 touchdowns with Mangini on the sidelines. JMO of course.

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

Wow, nice (but scary) review of Jets history from the 90's to now (basically Woody's ownership resume) - some of those games seem like yesterday, ghosts like Doug Brien still linger...

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

I blame Rex...Jets win that game by 3 touchdowns with Mangini on the sidelines. JMO of course.

It was over when the ref call the Jets the Giants on the coin toss, bad karma

 

and when Greene got hurt and killed the running game...

 

but not sure anyone could have beat Peyton in the second half of that game (one of his best) he was putting the ball right where it needed to be, it was very frustrating to watch in person

[bealeb319]

If he doesn't have success with the talent on our roster this year I would assume he wont be a head coach for much longer. I almost feel like anyone could be successful with the talent we currently have though talented teams have flopped in the past.

[AFJF]

If he doesn't have success with the talent on our roster this year I would assume he wont be a head coach for much longer. I almost feel like anyone could be successful with the talent we currently have though talented teams have flopped in the past.

 

Just curious...how many wins does he need in order to be considered successful in your opinion?

[ylekram]

Just curious...how many wins does he need in order to be considered successful in your opinion?

well, rex won 9 games and advanced to the championship game in 2009 with less talent. I think anything less than a wild card spot would be a disappointment

[AFJF]

well, rex won 9 games and advanced to the championship game in 2009 with less talent. I think anything less than a wild card spot would be a disappointment

 

Fair point...just wondering what everyone considers a success.  I  mean, 8-8 would double last season's win total which is usually a good thing.  Money spent this off-season could mean anything less than playoffs is a failure.

[JetsFanInDenver]

With Geno's struggles and Fitz's injury i think there might be a new option at QB that the JETS may have to go with.

 

[#27TheDominator]

With Geno's struggles and Fitz's injury i think there might be a new option at QB that the JETS may have to go with.

 

 

Ew! He's a lefty!    Good to see Milliner is out there, even if he is supposed to be limited.

[ylekram]

With Geno's struggles and Fitz's injury i think there might be a new option at QB that the JETS may have to go with.

 

HE SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE, HIGH RELEASE

[Beerfish]

Donald Strickland and Lito Sheppard are completely to blame for that loss to Indy on the road.

Indy out coached the jets and we had no answer.  They exploited their 3rd WR vs our 3rd cbs and just killed the jets all game, no adjustments were made.

 

The glory riden defense is what prevented the jets from winning both of those afc title games. 

[AFJF]

Indy out coached the jets and we had no answer.  They exploited their 3rd WR vs our 3rd cbs and just killed the jets all game, no adjustments were made.

 

The glory riden defense is what prevented the jets from winning both of those afc title games. 

 

Exactly..no reason Strickland, Eric Smith and Drew Coleman shouldn't have been able to shut down Manning.

[southparkcpa]

I never thought about the pest few regimes having success in year 1. Interesting.

I do think this is al playoff team though. The parts are coming back to earth. doing well in the division will be a must.

So does Buffalo, Miami, and New England.

[bealeb319]

Just curious...how many wins does he need in order to be considered successful in your opinion?

 

Probably whatever it takes to get us into the playoffs, honestly though I would be happy with 8-8 after last season.

[AFJF]

Probably whatever it takes to get us into the playoffs, honestly though I would be happy with 8-8 after last season.

 

Fair enough...couldn't knock him for that at all, but with the most talented roster I've ever seen I can't help but hope for best results I've ever seen.

[Beerfish]

Exactly..no reason Strickland, Eric Smith and Drew Coleman shouldn't have been able to shut down Manning.

You think like Rex.

 

The other team is beating our ass on our lesser players thus do nothing but keep trotting out the same players in the same situations and make no adjustments at all.  Every single team in the league has lesser 3, 4, 5 Cbs.  Only rex gets a pass for allowing those guys to get killed and lose you the game.

 

Rex is a D genius

Rex can't do a thing without 4 pro bowl CBs and should not be held accountable.  Typical nonsensical pro rex blather.

[Jet Nut]

well, rex won 9 games and advanced to the championship game in 2009 with less talent. I think anything less than a wild card spot would be a disappointment

Less talent? He had the NFLs best D. The NFLs #1 rush attack. The best OL. Hard to say he had less to work with

[Jet Nut]

You think like Rex.

 

The other team is beating our ass on our lesser players thus do nothing but keep trotting out the same players in the same situations and make no adjustments at all.  Every single team in the league has lesser 3, 4, 5 Cbs.  Only rex gets a pass for allowing those guys to get killed and lose you the game.

 

Rex is a D genius

Rex can't do a thing without 4 pro bowl CBs and should not be held accountable.  Typical nonsensical pro rex blather.

None of this makes sense. Name the playoff team that lost two corners at the half and stopped a HOF QB after that. It's crazy to act likexit shouldn't have made a difference.

[Beerfish]

None of this makes sense. Name the playoff team that lost two corners at the half and stopped a HOF QB after that. It's crazy to act likexit shouldn't have made a difference.

Their 3rd/4th Wr killed our 3rd, 4th cbs.  It had nothing to do with any injuries.  Wayne had 3 catches, Clark had 4.  Pierre Garcon 11 catches-151 yards.

 

Jets up 17-6 and they let the colts steamroll down and score not long before half.    The second half we get outscored 17-0.  Colts made adjustments, jets did not. 

[ylekram]

Less talent? He had the NFLs best D. The NFLs #1 rush attack. The best OL. Hard to say he had less to work with

rex might have had something to do with the fact the jets had the #1 defense,no? I don't think its even debatable that the talent level on this 2015 team is better than the 2009 team. yes, the oline was better, but that's where it stops

[Savage69]

Less talent? He had the NFLs best D. The NFLs #1 rush attack. The best OL. Hard to say he had less to work with

The 2008 team didn't have the best D(18) Rex with the addition of Scott and Leonhard made it the best D. The O-line was excellent with Brick and Mangold in their 4th year plus Big Wood, Faneca and Moore.. 

[Jetsfan80]

If he doesn't have success with the talent on our roster this year I would assume he wont be a head coach for much longer. I almost feel like anyone could be successful with the talent we currently have though talented teams have flopped in the past.

 

Just curious...how many wins does he need in order to be considered successful in your opinion?

 

Fair point...just wondering what everyone considers a success.  I  mean, 8-8 would double last season's win total which is usually a good thing.  Money spent this off-season could mean anything less than playoffs is a failure.

 

 

We have to stop looking ONLY at the W-L record of these rookie coaches, because each of Bowles' predecessors had immeadiate success that amounted to be smoke and mirrors. 

 

What we're looking for is a little less tangible.  Does Bowles hold players accountable?  Is there progress over the course of a season?  Does he make smart time management decisions over the course of a game?  Will he know when to turn to younger players if some of the veterans aren't working out?    Does he show the ability to be the "CEO" of the team, not just manage the defense?  Do the players keep the penalties to a minimum and display discipline?  Does the team end up having some form of an identity by season's end? 

[Jet Nut]

The 2008 team didn't have the best D(18) Rex with the addition of Scott and Leonhard made it the best D. The O-line was excellent with Brick and Mangold in their 4th year plus Big Wood, Faneca and Moore..

Of course but along with different players came a different system. Doesnt mean that they didn't have talent before. Or that this team has more talent. The D was good, the OL was way better and young. They had the leagues best running game which really helps when your QB sucks.

It's not a given as some are saying that this team is far more talented. They're really underestimating a team that with horrible QB play won 2 road playoff game against teams that were heavily favored for a reason

Just as they forget that the HC was a match for that talent

[Jet Nut]

Their 3rd/4th Wr killed our 3rd, 4th cbs.  It had nothing to do with any injuries.  Wayne had 3 catches, Clark had 4.  Pierre Garcon 11 catches-151 yards.

 

Jets up 17-6 and they let the colts steamroll down and score not long before half.    The second half we get outscored 17-0.  Colts made adjustments, jets did not.

So your thinking is that any teams 3rd and 4th WR is a perfect match to a teams 3rd and 4th corner? I'll bet that statement is wrong almost every time. 3 & 4 WRs contribute big time all year. You pray at 3 & 4 cbs don't ever see the field almost every time.

[Jet Nut]

rex might have had something to do with the fact the jets had the #1 defense,no? I don't think its even debatable that the talent level on this 2015 team is better than the 2009 team. yes, the oline was better, but that's where it stops

He would have some, just as Bowles would if they're better this year. But doesn't change the fact that they had talent on that unit and until this unit does better it's debatable who's more talented

[j4jets]

Fair point...just wondering what everyone considers a success.  I  mean, 8-8 would double last season's win total which is usually a good thing.  Money spent this off-season could mean anything less than playoffs is a failure.

 

8-8 would be gross. We spent too much for the short run to go 8-8 even with Geno. A 9 win, no playoff season will also be a disappointment. 9 win with a wildcard would be acceptable though.

[j4jets]

rex might have had something to do with the fact the jets had the #1 defense,no? I don't think its even debatable that the talent level on this 2015 team is better than the 2009 team. yes, the oline was better, but that's where it stops

 

2009

 

OL---130

RB---110

TEs---110

Safeties---120

 

2015

DL---130

Corners---120

WRs---110

 

Push

QBs

LBs

Special Team

 

Thats my quick, rough rankings of positions with ratings. And Im rating it based on the inferior talent being a 100.

[ljr]

8-8 would be gross. We spent too much for the short run to go 8-8 even with Geno. A 9 win, no playoff season will also be a disappointment. 9 win with a wildcard would be acceptable though.

What are you expecting out of the QB position to make the playoffs?

I would say 58% completion percentage , 3,250 yards, 12 TD , 12 Int may be attainable

[Integrity28]

8-8 would be gross. We spent too much for the short run to go 8-8 even with Geno. A 9 win, no playoff season will also be a disappointment. 9 win with a wildcard would be acceptable though.

 

There's really nothing in the team's control to dictate whether the are in/out of the playoffs with 9 wins. Mangini's last year, Rex first year. Dumb luck and math has to step in.

[Larz]

yes

[Jetlife33]

I would even sign up for a Parcells-like first couple of years. Parcells took a 1-15 team and turned it into a 9-7 team. Showed the players how to play hard and believe in a system. Year 2 we were 12-4, division champs, in the AFC Championship game and had a 10-0 lead before hell broke loose. Of course I'd like and prefer a playoff berth in year 1.

[Savage69]

I would even sign up for a Parcells-like first couple of years. Parcells took a 1-15 team and turned it into a 9-7 team. Showed the players how to play hard and believe in a system. Year 2 we were 12-4, division champs, in the AFC Championship game and had a 10-0 lead before hell broke loose. Of course I'd like and prefer a playoff berth in year 1.

Sparano took a 1-15 team and won the East in year one 11-5.. And before you say Brady was hurt game 1 2008 Brady didn't play when the Tuna was HC either..