Geno Smith's 2014 Stats in "Context".

[House Jet]

http://turnonthejets.com/2016/07/geno-smith-2014-context-stats/

Hope this wasnt posted already. The last thing this board needs is more repetitive Geno threads but i think this is a pretty good/objective article breaking down Geno's 2014 campaign in the context of his situation. Theres one on Fitz as well that I'll try to find. They also mention they will be comparing the two back to back soon enough. That should be interesting. Let me know what you guys think.

[House Jet]

We all knew it would come to this point. There’s no way to create an article about Ryan Fitzpatrick’s stats in context without also making one for Geno Smith. Well, now everyone’s getting their wish. It’s important to look at players within the context of their situation to separate their issues and strengths from their teams. While stats never tell the full story, adding a numerical value lets us remove the emotional highs and lows to fully process what occurred. It also allows us to quantify events in order to battle narratives and myths…

 

This second helping of Context Stats has evolved from the first, so some things have changed.

But first, let’s add the background. Outside of Eric Decker, the 2014 teams most often used players were generally limited talents. David Nelson, Jeremy Kerley, Greg Salas, and Jeff Cumberland offered little in saving inaccurate passes or even gaining separation. Salas however was a magician when it came to YAC, so he had a saving grace. Somehow despite that he was seldom used in favor of David Nelson, who offered nothing. Jace Amaro was barely used throughout the year as the Jets favored Cumberland over him. Eventually, Percy Harvin joined the team and brought a much needed full field threat who was actually skilled.

This all occurred behind a shaky offensive line that would sometimes demand Cumberland face elite edge rushers one on one (Seriously). Marty Morwhinweg’s offense tried to do what it could with this team but lacking resources didn’t help. Given a choice to save the OL or the WRs, he chose to save neither. The WRs were placed in stressful situations to get themselves open on longer developing routes while the OL was stressed with longer protections. This put even more stress on the QB.

This article will look at Geno Smith’s context stats alone, not in comparison to Ryan Fitzpatrick. That will come at another time.

Let me explain how the context stats work. The “%” column looks at success from the QBs perspective, not completion percentage. Drops and defensive penalties are removed from the equation and the QB isn’t penalized. So, 4/7 with 1 drop and 1 DPI is actually 6/7. YPA and QB rating ignore them entirely, turning that 4/7 to 4/5. INTable measures whether or not a pass could have been intercepted regardless of whether it was finished. However, it requires that the QB throw the ball under his own power there, so a ball that is tipped and then intercepted doesn’t count, unless the tip itself was interceptable. Drops also take account difficulty of catch, so an off target throw that the WR fails to save isn’t a drop.

Not included in these stats are touchdowns lost. Geno Smith lost four in total, including the Green Bay timeout fiasco. Geno’s rushing isn’t quantified either, this focuses strictly on passing performance.

Geno Smith’s Reads

The reads table looks at Geno Smith’s success rate through different situations. If you’ve seen the Ryan Fitzpatrick context stats, you’ll notice this looks a little different. As the context stats continue they’ll be evolving. Screens and Goal line fades have been removed from the table to see how the QB performs when he’s asked to make decisions.

For round 2 of the context stats, the read were split into Single Side and Full Field. A player being able to look off their first read is nice but when that read is just underneath their first, it has less value. On the other hand, it being on any other part of the field (like from the left side to the middle or right) shows a players mental acumen.

This is where I should talk about the Morwhinweg offense. To put it simply, it lacked rhyme or reason. Motions were in regular use but wouldn’t combine into meaningful routes combinations. For the most part, receivers were left out to get open on their own. The offense depended on Geno’s streaks of high quality accuracy to be the momentum of the passing game, which would be fine on a better rostered team.

Geno Smith had a high completion % and YPA when throwing to either read as is but had a significant drop in ball security when switching from one side of the field to another. On single side reads, Geno threw an interceptable once every 19.8 throws, practically one per game on non-designed passes. However, on full field that number jumps to 1 every 10 throws. But he still managed to improve in Yards Per Attempt (YPA) without sacrificing success rate, showing that he’s a danger to both himself and defenses.

That interceptable jump stems from Geno’s habit of throwing blind, including this near interception against the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense is playing a cover-3 and Geno starts off looking on the left side. The Bears inside linebacker on the right passes the seam route to the safety and is watching Geno. When pressure arrives, Geno turns and immediately throws. It’s a very lucky drop.

 

The After Bad Play row looks at any throw after a sack, lost fumble, or interceptable pass (caught or not). Unsurprisingly for someone who’s returned from an in-season benching to outperform his previous play, he was exceptionally better after a bad play. A massive 13.10 YPA with 69% completion and 0 interceptables for the season when bouncing back from a mistake.

Geno Smith Against Situations

Screens and Goal Line fades are still out of the equation. Playactions aren’t counted in Blitz and No Blitz because defenders caught by the run fake become blitzers by default. They aren’t included in no-pressure either because of the opportunity for defenders to get caught by the run fake. However, they are included in pressure since a defender would’ve had to recognize the fake.

Geno had little issue dealing with Blitzes and was even good against it throughout the season. He could diagnose them easily and take advantage of space that rushers vacated without a problem. However, the same can not be said of when he was pressured. You’d expect Geno’s stats to take a massive drop when under physical duress but the rate at which he would throw interceptables was far too high at every 8.6 throws. A lot of that comes off of Geno rushing through his motion or throwing off-balance. Plays like the one below against New England show him shortening his follow-through and underthrowing as a result.

 

Movement off Spot is similar to pressure but not quite. There’s some situations where a QB isn’t under actual pressure but faces the chance of the pocket collapsing, so they leave. The play below shows one such positive example. However, movement off spot also included plays where pressure forced movement out of the pocket.

 

The same trend as pressure appears in movement. Geno’s already an aggressive quarterback and when he leaves pockets he sees an opportunity to take chances, thus the increase of interceptables (to one every 10.5) and YPA but decrease in %. Geno rolls out on the play below and tries to hit Greg Salas between two defenders, getting another lucky drop.

 

When you remove pressure and look at plays where Geno solely escaped tight pockets, the numbers get surprisingly worse. The Interceptables barely change but completion percentage and YPA take massive dips. Unfortunately without context of other young QBs, it’s hard to know how bad this really is.

Third downs show the same thing as Blitz, Geno is good against mental pressure. When facing difficulty from situation instead of from physical presence, he can work. Smith improved his YPA, Interceptables per attempt (to 19.3), and threw most of his touchdowns for the entire season on 3rd downs. Smith converted around 47% of his total third downs that he passed on, nearing the 50% mark against short and long 3rd downs. Below is one of Geno’s best third down plays, he’s able to completely tune out all the forms of pressure around him and make a precise throw to Decker.

 

Finally, the coverage. This should be no surprise except for those believing Geno Smith is unable to read defenses. Geno’s stats against zone seem to be exceptionally good for the context stats so far. With nearly 80% completion, 9.3 YPA, and only 1 interceptable every 22.2 throws; Geno Smith was comfortable tearing through zone defenses all season long.

Meanwhile, man coverage showed much worse despite most of his touchdowns coming against it. Man puts more stress on the receivers to win their battles than Zone, and the receivers on the 2014 Jets were the biggest problem on the offense. However, it’s not as if Geno didn’t have his own issues. Recognizing CB leverage was a common problem that led to questionable passes. The chart below shows Geno’s production to each receiver vs Man Coverage in detail.

Geno’s main struggles when throwing against man coverage came when throwing at Nelson, Kerley, and Cumberland. All three posted sub 7.0 YPA (even when ignoring drops) while having less than 60% success rates and had 1 interceptable per 11 or 12 targets. Amaro, for as much potential as he shows, didn’t show much success against Man either but as a rookie that’s expected.

Geno Smith by Targets

Important to remember here that this only looks at production from the QBs perspective, so drops are removed from the equation. Screens and Goal line fades are still not a part of this chart.

Geno Smith’s receivers are Eric Decker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Kerley and a group of forgettable players. However, Harvin doesn’t even arrive until later in the season and Kerley is more of a Jets favorite than good. Geno had an outstanding efficiency throwing at Eric Decker despite having one interceptable every 15.2 throws his way. Otherwise, only Harvin and Salas were effective players for Geno and for some reason Salas was rarely used in the Jets offense, instead opting for the completely ineffective Nelson. Smith had trouble keeping the ball safe when throwing towards players like Nelson and Kerley because both players struggled to get separation throughout the year. As explained before, Smith had no issue mentally beating defenses but suffered greatly against man coverage where receivers had more stress on them to perform.

Starting two replacement level talents like Kerley and Nelson was a major part of that. Why the Jets didn’t replace Nelson with Salas is hard to understand. When looking at their numbers side by side it’s obvious that Salas was the better option. Salas stats have 3 drops on them leaving a blemish, but Geno was more consistent in throwing accurately in his direction and had 7.4 more YPA on the same amount of targets. That’s because Salas is a massive athletic target who can gain separation and YAC. The play below was one of his best and made it easy to forget his drops.

 

More confusion appears with the Jets mishandling of the running backs. These coaches did not show an understanding of their own players limitations as the seldom used Bilal Powell nearly doubled Chris Johnson’s efficiency in the passing game. Guess who played more though? On a small sample size for each back, Geno showed the best efficiency when throwing at Powell by being nearly perfect in his direction. His 2015 breakout shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone who saw him doing the same things in the two years prior.

Finally, the TEs show a more difficult story. Geno was great targeting Amaro with 85% successes, 9.56 YPA, and only 1 interceptable on 33 non-design targets. Cumberland has touchdowns to boast about but a significantly worse INTable rate along with a 2 YPA drop. Like many of the other receivers, they both struggled against Man but Amaro at least added size/YAC to the field. The Jets still chose to have Cumberland on the field more often than Amaro, facts withstanding. That may have been the result of Amaro’s many drops.

Geno Smith by Routes

We’re at the first section that doesn’t exclude anything. Every route is broken down into it’s most simplest form. Checkdowns are a curl coming from any player who comes out of the backfield.

Geno Smith was awful throwing deep in nearly every game in 2014. Some of that might be partly blamed on an offensive cast but most of it is on Geno’s tendency to underthrow. The end of the year tallied same amount of interceptables as completions for the vertical without a YPA or completion % that makes throwing it worthwhile. It was genuinely bad despite looking aesthetically prettier than the 2015 starter. The play below may be his worst as he underthrows Cumberland in the Buffalo meltdown.

 

Moving on, we find the area where he was actually effective. Chain-moving consistent plays that require attacking defenses in intermediate distances via mental recognition. At 8.8 YPA, 73% successes and only 1 interceptable every 25.7 passes; this was Geno’s domain for 2014. When his accuracy was really on point he even created massive YAC. That’s most shown on the In route, where Geno averaged a first down YPA, 81% success rate, and 1  interceptable on 53 attempts. The In was mainly used as a second or third read in the Jets offense which allowed Geno’s patience to shine. The play below shows one of those.

The Patriots show a pre-snap blitz that bails out. Geno’s seeing a Cover-1 robber and waiting for the primary In route to pull the robber away from Cumberland’s In route, who he hits for a huge gain.

 

Geno Smith by Distance

Our final section looks at Geno Smith by distance. This measures how far the ball traveled from the LOS to the target, not from the QB’s arm.

One part of the Geno Smith story that’s been mythologized is how he’ll bring back the deep ball to the offense. While he’s slightly more effective than Fitzpatrick, he’s not exactly good at it. Geno threw only 2 more completions than interceptables when going deep and didn’t have the level of effectiveness that made it generally worth it. That is, unless he went really deep.

On throws of 30+ he isn’t nearly as bad. While 1 interceptable every 9 passes isn’t good, there’s some returns to be gotten out of there. That’s due to the 30+ ball being a “throw it as far as you can” type of pass instead of one requiring touch. The play below shows Geno throwing one of those to an open Decker against Miami. When Geno recognizes the cover-1 safety sitting lame in the middle of the field, he shoots the throw over to Decker for 40 yards.

 

 

However, you could not trust Geno to throw within the 20-29 range. While he’s safer than Fitzpatrick when going all the way deep, he’s actually worse here. Geno had 1 interceptable every 3.6 passes and didn’t even average a first down in YPA. It seems like Geno’s problem in this area is a lack of touch for the distance. The play below shows Geno’s issue with placement as he underthrows a very easily interceptable ball for future Jet Marcus Gilchrist, who isn’t looking.

 

The 2014 Jets were not a good redzone offense in any way. Morwhinweg wasn’t a very good coordinator in this area either. However, despite Geno’s lack of ball security in the Redzone his other efficiencies don’t look too bad against his competition. But his indecisiveness in the redzone cost him at least three touchdowns on the year. There’s some good too though.

One of my favorite redzone moments showed off his best strength. On first and goal at the NE 9, the Jets run a Sail concept on the right side (flat+out+corner) that the Patriots have decently covered with too much traffic in the area. Geno takes his eyes off the designed read and moves into the middle of the field, where Kerley improvs on his vertical and cuts back towards the left corner of the endzone. Geno recognizes the change and is on time with his read and well placed with the throw. It doesn’t end up counting due to a holding call but it’s a good play nonetheless.

Conclusion

These numbers surprised me. I didn’t expect there would be a way for Geno Smith to have positive numbers when the seasons stats were so bleak. To me, this just shows more reason for optimism as two of his greatest weaknesses as a passer (dealing with pressure and man coverage) are something the Chan Gailey offenses are built to deal with. However, he does have a major glaring weakness that the Context Stats don’t capture. Geno has very bad pocket habits.

After collecting these stats and re-watching the games, the only issue that seems to be Geno Smith’s potential demise is a propensity for bad pocket movement. Fans will remember him backing up into infinity and assume that’s the focus, but it’s not. Although those are bad, most of them end up as throw aways and not sacks. The real issue for Geno has come in his wild, uncoordinated motions that he takes in the pocket leading to him throwing off-balance or shortening his motion. This is something the Gailey offense is built to fix but it’s a massive issue that also sees him run into sacks by over-extending his movements when avoiding pressure.

But the passing stats give optimism. There isn’t anything in here that says Geno can’t be a stopgap option, and in the next part of this series we’ll compare Fitz and Geno back to back.

[House Jet]

I was able to post everything except the videos. Im just not that capable of a poster to do that so you'll have to head to the site to check those out. Sorry fellas ?

[Villain The Foe]

6 hours ago, House Jet said:

I was able to post everything except the videos. Im just not that capable of a poster to do that so you'll have to head to the site to check those out. Sorry fellas ?

This was already posted a couple days ago. 

 

[aec4]

Is there an analytic stat for looking scared when the rush is coming and locking in on your number one?  If so geno leads the league.  

[Warfish]

15 hours ago, Mike135 said:

It's not about being right.  It's about not wasting year(s) and cap space.  Deciding whether or not to pay Fitz is kind of a big deal.

A big deal I get no say in, preferring Fitz or not.  Preferring Fitz =/= Wanting to Pay Fitz 100 Million

15 hours ago, Mike135 said:

 But you're right, everyone is free to flip-flop all they want of course.

There is no flipflop.  Preferring Fitz =/= accepting poor play from Fitz =/= Geno woulda been better.

15 hours ago, Mike135 said:

Hell, when/if Fitz is signed I'll definitely switch to rooting for the guy.

If you say so.

15 hours ago, Mike135 said:

But if he leads the team to the playoffs, I'll happily say I was horribly wrong these past months.  As of now though, seriously doubt that'll happen.

I'll keep making the point, preferring Fitz =/= a guarantee of playoffs or titles.  It's a belief that of the two options, one will play better, nothing more, nothing less.

[paulyjet]

Geno sucks

[Jet Nut]

On July 15, 2016 at 10:00 PM, Mike135 said:

Right.  Plus making pressured throws is much easier to do with a guy like Marshall making up for bad passes.

Or when you know the offense and the pro game. 

 

[Jet Nut]

20 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

He may not be IQ dumb, he's just football IQ dumb.

Funny how just about every QB has to learn a new offense and the pro game coming out of college.  Some who come from spread or read option offenses in college have more to learn.

But while other fanbases wait to see if their QB will get it we just immediately call our guys dumb.  Or busts. 

[Jet Nut]

19 hours ago, Powpow said:

Just wait when Fitz signs and they ask Geno how he feels about being the back up. It will be priceless! It may even be more entertaining than Ryan Leaf's media episodes. Can't wait!!!!

Because his past has led you to this bit of nonsense.

[j4jets]

2 hours ago, aec4 said:

Is there an analytic stat for looking scared when the rush is coming and locking in on your number one?  If so geno leads the league.  

The Dolphins disagree. 

[j4jets]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

A big deal I get no say in, preferring Fitz or not.  Preferring Fitz =/= Wanting to Pay Fitz 100 Million

There is no flipflop.  Preferring Fitz =/= accepting poor play from Fitz =/= Geno woulda been better.

If you say so.

I'll keep making the point, preferring Fitz =/= a guarantee of playoffs or titles.  It's a belief that of the two options, one will play better, nothing more, nothing less.

What's sad is there are posters wanting to pay Fitz yet don't believe he'll make us a playoff team. 

Fitz at $15 mil (12 + 3 for Geno) or Geno at $3 mil? 

Can you imagine the crucification if a Geno fan said the same about no playoff guarantees? It's like Fitz has set the standard at 10 wins, albeit mostly against garbage teams.

A half ass decent QB would've beaten the otherwise 4 win Buffalo team twice and Houston with TJ sh*ts. Let's at least pretend Fitz isn't the all-pro you make him out to be. 

[j4jets]

1 hour ago, paulyjet said:

Geno sucks

She told you that, troll?

[j4jets]

50 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Or when you know the offense and the pro game. 

 

Funny how he forgot "the offense and the pro game" in his biggest game of his career. 

[House Jet]

3 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

This was already posted a couple days ago. 

 

Sorry I probably shouldve searched it. I've been so busy lately, have only been able to read here on the weekends and sparingly at that. I must have missed it.

[Jet Nut]

5 minutes ago, j4jets said:

What's sad is there are posters wanting to pay Fitz yet don't believe he'll make us a playoff team. 

Fitz at $15 mil (12 + 3 for Geno) or Geno at $3 mil? 

Can you imagine the crucification if a Geno fan said the same about no playoff guarantees? It's like Fitz has set the standard at 10 wins, albeit mostly against garbage teams.

A half ass decent QB would've beaten the otherwise 4 win Buffalo team twice and Houston with TJ sh*ts. Let's at least pretend Fitz isn't the all-pro you make him out to be. 

I said it long ago and still believe it today.  There are those who just don't want their guy to lose out, even if the alternative is the same or more wins at a lower cost.

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, j4jets said:

Funny how he forgot "the offense and the pro game" in his biggest game of his career. 

Can you imagine what the same Fitz excuse makers would say if Geno had the same exact season, had the same meltdown in Buffalo?  

Bet they'd be just as understanding and quick to defend.  Lol

[j4jets]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Can you imagine what the same Fitz excuse makers would say if Geno had the same exact season, had the same meltdown in Buffalo?  

Bet they'd be just as understanding and quick to defend.  Lol

Lol you think? How worse could it be? They've already put him on the cross while thinking Fitz is the next coming of Jesus. 

[Villain The Foe]

2 hours ago, House Jet said:

Sorry I probably shouldve searched it. I've been so busy lately, have only been able to read here on the weekends and sparingly at that. I must have missed it.

It's cool. Just wanted you to know, I figured that you didnt see it given all of the Geno and Fitz threads. Its easy to overlook. 

 

 

[Harlemnite1]

22 hours ago, Mike135 said:

... really?

 

 

Yeah really!!!!! A first year guy and a rookie. An injured first year guy at that and not only a rookie but a 7th round pick. Listen if Geno is the QB day one by game 3 the team  will be in chaos and 0-3. Bengals, Chiefs and Bills are up first. Expecting a rookie to take the top off a defense is expecting a lot. Smith might not even play this year with his injury. So I stand by my original post that the Jets have no one to throw deep too.

[Warfish]

6 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

I said it long ago and still believe it today.  There are those who just don't want their guy to lose out, even if the alternative is the same or more wins at a lower cost.

A claim that is only accurate IF that person believed the "alternative", i.e. Geno, would in fact provide/produce "the same or more wins".

Be assured, people who prefer Fitz do not believe that he (Geno) would be able to do that, and that's why they prefer Fitz.  Not because they care if "their guy" loses out, but because they lack any faith that the "other guy" will go from "pile of sh*t" to "the same or more wins" as Fitz in an equal circimstance.

This includes almost every talking head on ESPN and NFL network I've heard broach the subject, for whom the idea of a playoff-Geno team is the punchline of a joke.  Not one believes in Geno far as I can tell.

So it's rather clear, to me at least:  

1. Fitz gives us a much better chance to win games and make the playoffs than Geno Smith, Bryce Petty or The Hack does.  He's our best possible starting QB.

2. Fitz can be afforded on a 1-3 year contract without major cuts or contract revisions to others being required.   If we can afford him without cuts, the difference in cost is meaningless.  It's not my money and we get no prizes for being cheap vs. the cap.

3. There is no guarantee Fitz wins anything.  At all.  My opinion is based on the odds of being better, nothing more.  He could always regress.  And if he does, I believe our season is over at that moment.  If that's the case, Petty should be played, not Geno.  Geno has no future here, and that's very clear IMO.

4. End of the day, I want my team to always do two things:  

• a. be as competitive as humanly possible (there is no "play for next year" in the NFL IMO).
• b. build upon previous success to built better success, never take a step back, never accept we must waste years on "rebuilds" and "see what we have" seasons, wasting our time and talents.

We are unquestionably (IMO) a playoff-quality roster in 2016.  We are weak at QB.  I expect Fitz to produce well enough to not sink the efforts of the other 50+ players.  If he fails to do so, I will be critical of him, and if he truly plays poorly I will demand he be replaced at the appropriate time.  I do not believe Geno Smith will every be a quality NFL QB, and so I dismiss, outright, the "fair chance" and "see what we have" arguments. 

I respect others have a differing opinion.  But at no point am I held to their judgement about the play of players I have no control over and decisions I play no part in making.  If Fitz plays, I'll be pleased as stated above.  If he fails to do well, I will be displeased and will say so as I always do.  Wins and titles and building a better team in every way we can, that's what matters.

[Warfish]

6 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Can you imagine what the same Fitz excuse makers would say if Geno had the same exact season, had the same meltdown in Buffalo?  

Bet they'd be just as understanding and quick to defend.  Lol

If Geno is our starter this year, and produces "the same exact season", i.e. close to 4,000 yards, 60% Com., 30+ TD's to 15 or less INT's, 300 rushing, a few rushing TD's, few to no lost fumbles and helps produce a 10 win season with one game left to go.....

......I, for one, wouldn't care about Fitz.  I'd be VERY happy, regardless of being wrong on Geno for that year, and I'd want to know how/if Geno could/should be resigned, for how much, and what that means for Hack and Petty and the future.  

Even if he played exactly as well as Fitz did in that final game.  As I've said and will continue to say, Fitz didn't lose the game in Buffalo, the entire team, top to bottom, did.  So if Geno did what Fitz did, I'd say the same thing if the same circumstances were in place, i.e. a total team letdown.

[ljr]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

A claim that is only accurate IF that person believed the "alternative", i.e. Geno, would in fact provide/produce "the same or more wins".

Be assured, people who prefer Fitz do not believe that he (Geno) would be able to do that, and that's why they prefer Fitz.  Not because they care if "their guy" loses out, but because they lack any faith that the "other guy" will go from "pile of sh*t" to "the same or more wins" as Fitz in an equal circimstance.

This includes almost every talking head on ESPN and NFL network I've heard broach the subject, for whom the idea of a playoff-Geno team is the punchline of a joke.  Not one believes in Geno far as I can tell.

So it's rather clear, to me at least:  

1. Fitz gives us a much better chance to win games and make the playoffs than Geno Smith, Bryce Petty or The Hack does.  He's our best possible starting QB.

2. Fitz can be afforded on a 1-3 year contract without major cuts or contract revisions to others being required.   If we can afford him without cuts, the difference in cost is meaningless.  It's not my money and we get no prizes for being cheap vs. the cap.

3. There is no guarantee Fitz wins anything.  At all.  My opinion is based on the odds of being better, nothing more.  He could always regress.  And if he does, I believe our season is over at that moment.  If that's the case, Petty should be played, not Geno.  Geno has no future here, and that's very clear IMO.

4. End of the day, I want my team to always do two things:  

• a. be as competitive as humanly possible (there is no "play for next year" in the NFL IMO).
• b. build upon previous success to built better success, never take a step back, never accept we must waste years on "rebuilds" and "see what we have" seasons, wasting our time and talents.

We are unquestionably (IMO) a playoff-quality roster in 2016.  We are weak at QB.  I expect Fitz to produce well enough to not sink the efforts of the other 50+ players.  If he fails to do so, I will be critical of him, and if he truly plays poorly I will demand he be replaced at the appropriate time.  I do not believe Geno Smith will every be a quality NFL QB, and so I dismiss, outright, the "fair chance" and "see what we have" arguments. 

I respect others have a differing opinion.  But at no point am I held to their judgement about the play of players I have no control over and decisions I play no part in making.  If Fitz plays, I'll be pleased as stated above.  If he fails to do well, I will be displeased and will say so as I always do.  Wins and titles and building a better team in every way we can, that's what matters.

Reason is not welcome by the Geno crowd

[Embrace the Suck]

On 7/15/2016 at 9:55 PM, Lupz27 said:

Basically when Geno gets it out quick, and or he gets protection he is above average QB, Fitz gets ball out quicker, but even thou he doesn't get sacked much on pressures like Geno he pretty much is limited, and when D knows he is throwing he can't move he ball down the field unless he has like time for 10 plays while Geno can move the ball down field rather quickly when protected or gets it out quick before pressure arrives,

 

I will take the 1 million man with upside over the 8 million man who is limited

 

Particularly when the 8 million man has been in the league for a decade and the 1 million man is being judged on his first two season with little talent at wr and poor coaching.

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

If Geno is our starter this year, and produces "the same exact season", i.e. close to 4,000 yards, 60% Com., 30+ TD's to 15 or less INT's, 300 rushing, a few rushing TD's, few to no lost fumbles and helps produce a 10 win season with one game left to go.....

......I, for one, wouldn't care about Fitz.  I'd be VERY happy, regardless of being wrong on Geno for that year, and I'd want to know how/if Geno could/should be resigned, for how much, and what that means for Hack and Petty and the future.  

Even if he played exactly as well as Fitz did in that final game.  As I've said and will continue to say, Fitz didn't lose the game in Buffalo, the entire team, top to bottom, did.  So if Geno did what Fitz did, I'd say the same thing if the same circumstances were in place, i.e. a total team letdown.

You'd be alone.  One person claimed yesterday if not for Geno taking a sack they would have bested Oakland.  You underestimate the hate.  If Geno played the way Fitz did in Buffalo there might be a handful saying it was a team loss.  Shlt, I don't even think it was a team loss, a QB loss no matter the QB.  Happens.

[AFJF]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

If Geno is our starter this year, and produces "the same exact season", i.e. close to 4,000 yards, 60% Com., 30+ TD's to 15 or less INT's, 300 rushing, a few rushing TD's, few to no lost fumbles and helps produce a 10 win season with one game left to go.....

......I, for one, wouldn't care about Fitz.  I'd be VERY happy, regardless of being wrong on Geno for that year, and I'd want to know how/if Geno could/should be resigned, for how much, and what that means for Hack and Petty and the future.  

Even if he played exactly as well as Fitz did in that final game.  As I've said and will continue to say, Fitz didn't lose the game in Buffalo, the entire team, top to bottom, did.  So if Geno did what Fitz did, I'd say the same thing if the same circumstances were in place, i.e. a total team letdown.

If Geno went from 2x defending worst QB in the NFL to 31 TD's and 15 INT's, I'd say we have our QB of the future.  As it turned out, he couldn't unseat a weak-armed journeyman.

I hope Geno gets inducted in to Canton as a Jet one day.  

What I would like to happen and what I think will happen could not be further apart.

[Integrity28]

On 7/15/2016 at 10:22 PM, Villain The Foe said:

I would as well. What I liked about the breakdown was that it was fair.  It demonstrates what Geno has done well or poorly, but within the context of his targets, play design etc. and really showing the importance of those areas in the game relevant to the QB. 

Sometimes people just look at the result of a play and draw a conclusion without really understanding what actually goes into the play, either from play design, talent used to execute the play as well as player responsibility . This breakdown is really telling in some key areas, such as our old OC Marty designing plays where there really wasnt a plethora of combination routes that worked off of one another. Meanwhile in the Fitz version of this thread you can really see how Chan Gailey's play design truly contributed to Fitz success. 

Goes to show when guys like @Integrity28 request illustrations of how targets and coaches can impact quarterback performance, the notion isnt as bullsh*t as some would suggest. 

It makes a huge difference when looking at individual plays, and how the quality of your targets & play design can play a significant a role....rather than just showing a few yearly stats of Fitzpatrick and saying "There's no impact",....as if thats a valid illustration. 

Not sure why you'd tag me here. 

New week, need to be reminded that your arguments are constructed like a house of cards?

[Villain The Foe]

Just now, Integrity28 said:

Not sure why you'd tag me here. 

New week, need to be reminded that your arguments are constructed like a house of cards?

Derp. 

[Integrity28]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

Derp. 

Best post you've made in about 3 months.

[Villain The Foe]

28 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Best post you've made in about 3 months.

Derp.

[Mainejet]

There is no CONTEXT you can put Geno Smith's stats in.... He SUCKS pure and simple. He's also probably DUMBER than Ryan Leaf and only very slightly more talented. Face it....he's DOOMED. 

[Matt39]

 He acted in his school's production of "The Nutcracker."

 

Well I'm convinced.

[Villain The Foe]

On 7/16/2016 at 5:01 PM, Il Mostro said:

So, is Geno the next Glennon?

Glennon has top 15 QB potential. Glennon has the potential to be a 2009/2010 "Matt Schaub" type of player. 

Geno needs alot of work with his pocket presence. Glennon is lightyears ahead of Geno in that area, yet he technically isnt nearly as mobile as Geno. Glennon's subtle movements in the pocket in order to extend the play is something that Geno is simply poor at, and I would say he's also ahead of Geno with the deep ball trajectory and accuracy. Glennon is imo a top 5 best deep ball thrower. He's nowhere near where Aaron Rodgers is (The best deep thrower in the league) but he's around where Tyrod Taylor is in terms of ball flight, trajectory, accuracy and just the overall beauty of the pass. On the low, catching a few Bills games last season, Tyrod Taylor is phenomenal with the deep pass. Its a beauty to watch. 

 

[Villain The Foe]

Jets say they believe in Geno Smith; soon we'll know how much

Jul 18, 2016

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  Rich CiminiESPN Staff Writer

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Breaking down the New York Jets' roster, unit by unit, in preparation for training camp:

Geno Smith and the rest of the Jets are waiting for the Ryan Fitzpatrick saga to end. Ray Carlin/USA TODAY Sports

Position: Quarterback

Projected starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Projected reserves: Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg

Notable on the bubble: Bryce Petty

Top storyline: It's the same storyline from June, May, April, March and February: Will Fitzpatrick re-sign? It's not a stretch to say the outcome could be season altering. Common sense suggests Fitzpatrick and the Jets are meant to be together and a deal will be struck by the start of camp or shortly thereafter, but smart people in the know offer a hint of caution, indicating it's not a fait accompli. The Jets have been offering three years and $24 million, including $12 million in the first year. They should sweeten the second year, providing Fitzpatrick financial protection in the event he remains the starter in 2017. Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan is on a roll after re-signing Muhammad Wilkerson; he needs to make it happen with Fitzpatrick.

Player to watch: Smith earned praise from the Jets as the nominal starter in the offseason, but some of that could've been posturing. We'll know how theyreally feel about him by the way they approach the Fitzpatrick negotiations. If Fitzpatrick doesn't return, it's important that Smith maintain his momentum from the spring. He was having a nice camp last year, until he got popped in the face by IK Enemkpali; now we'll see if can recapture his pre-JawGate form. He won't be happy if he goes back to the No. 2 role -- nor should he be -- but that's life on the Jets. He would have to suck it up and be the good soldier for one more year. He's a free agent after this season.

Training camp will be a success if ... Fitzpatrick shows up in time to claim the starting job, Smith slides gracefully into the backup job and no one gets hurt on the field or in the locker room.

Wild card: Could all four quarterbacks make the 53-man roster? Yeah, it's possible, according to Maccagnan. It would be an unorthodox way to build a roster, but the Jets are trying to cover themselves for the short term and long term. If there's an odd man out, it would be Petty, who needs to rally after a mediocre offseason performance. Hackenberg, drafted in the second round, is the new golden child. If Fitzpatrick returns, however, practice reps will be hard to come by for Hackenberg and Petty.

By the numbers: Fitzpatrick helps the offense in many ways, but throwing downfield isn't one of them. He completed only 21.5 percent of passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air, ranking 33rd in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. It was a significant drop from his 2013-2014 mark with the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans -- a combined 43.6 percent, which ranked third. In case you're wondering, Smith hit on 38.2 percent of such passes in 2013-2014.

[slats]

Geno Smith in 2014, playing on a garbage team, throwing to a gimpy Decker as his #1 and a bunch of scrubs, and generally playing from behind against a tougher schedule, completed 59.7% of his passes at 6.9 yards per attempt. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick took over as QB of a much improved team in 2015, against an historically easy schedule, and throwing to Marshall with a healthy Decker as his #2 WR, completed 59.6% of his passes at 6.9 yards per attempt. 

Hard to see the lightyears difference between these two guys.