ZachEY Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Once the league moved touchbacks on kickoffs to the 25, I've been wondering if it makes any sense to take the ball out of the end zone ever? I don't know if there's any data on this, but anecdotally, it seems pretty rare that teams make it to the 25 from the end zone. Some non-scientific numbers: only 4 players averaged greater than 25 yards per return and there were only 7 TDs this year. I'm sure there will be data at some point, but seems to me like you should always take the touchback. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly12 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 No you are guaranteed the 25 1/4 of the field of play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetster Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The Jets certainly shouldn't, I don't think they ever got past the 25. Belichick already has Gostkowski kicking to the 1/2 forcing teams to take it & get tackled before the 25. Hidden yardage, BB leaves no stone unturned. Teams with good returners BB just has the kicker blast it through the endzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Teams like the Jets, who have a horrible QB situation and can't move the ball should take it out from time to time IMO. Basically the fact that they will very rarely have a skill player running at full speed with the ball in his hands toward the end zone means they should give a guy a shot to make a big play every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fibonacci Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Depends. If you are up big, no reason to take any risks for a few extra yards. But if you are down big, you gotta take every chance you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Walrus Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Playing the odds then no you shouldn't. But as said above, if you need 2 touchdowns and only 5 mins on the clock then you take the chance of taking it to the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rangerous Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 these days there's no point in taking it out but teams will adapt to kicking the ball high so it lands around the 5 forcing a return and probably a tackle well before the 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRONX DUDE Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 You should never touch a ball that is rolling out of bounds on the 3 LOL LOL LOL LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Mick Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Obviously if you have a good KR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12 hours ago, gEYno said: Once the league moved touchbacks on kickoffs to the 25, I've been wondering if it makes any sense to take the ball out of the end zone ever? I don't know if there's any data on this, but anecdotally, it seems pretty rare that teams make it to the 25 from the end zone. Some non-scientific numbers: only 4 players averaged greater than 25 yards per return and there were only 7 TDs this year. I'm sure there will be data at some point, but seems to me like you should always take the touchback. Thoughts? No. Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Not unless you have somebody like Tyreek Hill running it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Lol. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 21 hours ago, gEYno said: Once the league moved touchbacks on kickoffs to the 25, I've been wondering if it makes any sense to take the ball out of the end zone ever? I don't know if there's any data on this, but anecdotally, it seems pretty rare that teams make it to the 25 from the end zone. Some non-scientific numbers: only 4 players averaged greater than 25 yards per return and there were only 7 TDs this year. I'm sure there will be data at some point, but seems to me like you should always take the touchback. Thoughts? Don't those KR averages count yardage returned while still in the EZ? Adds to the returners' averages but obviously it's zero actual yards until they leave the EZ. So weird how a KR could get credited as an 18 yd return yet his team starts the drive inside the 10. It's like they let players' (and special teams coaches') agents decide how that stat gets recorded. RBs don't get credited with an additional few yards for taking every handoff behind the LOS. How many KRers actually average returning the ball past the 25 yard line? It's strange how this more aggressive strategy is still employed despite statistical evidence that surely shows it isn't worth it (I think it was debatable even before they moved touchbacks from the 20 to the 25). Conversely, despite evidence showing teams should be more aggressive and go for it on 4th and short, regardless of how deep they are in their own territory, everybody still punts, opting for the conservative route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 If you have what you think is a weapon back there such as a T. Hill or C. Patterson then yes you should run it out dam near every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScarletKnight89 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I don't have the stats in front of me. But I feel like it least in the Jets case, whenever they return a kick from the end zone they get to the 20 and that's it. I think the better option is to just take a knee, start at the 25, and don't risk the field position or the possibility of a turnover. But my judgement might be biased based on the fact that the Jets Special Teams has been so bad for a long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said: I don't have the stats in front of me. But I feel like it least in the Jets case, whenever they return a kick from the end zone they get to the 20 and that's it. I think the better option is to just take a knee, start at the 25, and don't risk the field position or the possibility of a turnover. But my judgement might be biased based on the fact that the Jets Special Teams has been so bad for a long time now. I think a prerequisite to taking kicks out is that our guys catch it cleanly 100% of the time first. Then worry about what they may or may not do with it once it's secured. Never knew I'd miss Jeremy Kerley's fair catches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chirorob Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/8/2017 at 10:23 AM, gEYno said: Once the league moved touchbacks on kickoffs to the 25, I've been wondering if it makes any sense to take the ball out of the end zone ever? I don't know if there's any data on this, but anecdotally, it seems pretty rare that teams make it to the 25 from the end zone. Some non-scientific numbers: only 4 players averaged greater than 25 yards per return and there were only 7 TDs this year. I'm sure there will be data at some point, but seems to me like you should always take the touchback. Thoughts? Less then 1 minute in the half, maybe you hit the lottery. If you aren't going 75 yards in 50 seconds, you probably won't go 80 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 12 hours ago, New York Mick said: Obviously if you have a good KR. The "good" KRs don't have numbers that really beat the 25 with any regularity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said: Don't those KR averages count yardage returned while still in the EZ? Adds to the returners' averages but obviously it's zero actual yards until they leave the EZ. So weird how a KR could get credited as an 18 yd return yet his team starts the drive inside the 10. It's like they let players' (and special teams coaches') agents decide how that stat gets recorded. RBs don't get credited with an additional few yards for taking every handoff behind the LOS. How many KRers actually average returning the ball past the 25 yard line? It's strange how this more aggressive strategy is still employed despite statistical evidence that surely shows it isn't worth it (I think it was debatable even before they moved touchbacks from the 20 to the 25). Conversely, despite evidence showing teams should be more aggressive and go for it on 4th and short, regardless of how deep they are in their own territory, everybody still punts, opting for the conservative route. Yes, the averages do count yards while still in the endzone. But, it was the data that was easily available. I don't think it's so odd though that this aggressive strategy is used while 4th down isn't. The consequences of lack of success are more significant if you go for it on 4th and fail, whereas the consequences typically aren't as significant if you only get to the 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Beerfish said: If you have what you think is a weapon back there such as a T. Hill or C. Patterson then yes you should run it out dam near every time. Both of them have averages over 25 yards, but that doesn't factor in distance from the endzone and they each only have one TD. Still can't say for sure that it's worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Mick Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, gEYno said: The "good" KRs don't have numbers that really beat the 25 with any regularity. No but they can't get you a spsrk if they break a 35 40 yard run or more. Yea most of the time they'll get to the 15 20 yard line but the times they break one I'd take the risk for if you have a good KR not the special needs players we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 54 minutes ago, chirorob said: Less then 1 minute in the half, maybe you hit the lottery. If you aren't going 75 yards in 50 seconds, you probably won't go 80 either. This is kind of where I'm at. In situations where the need for a home run greatly outweighs the cost of 5-10 yards, you probably go for it. Otherwise, stay in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, gEYno said: Yes, the averages do count yards while still in the endzone. But, it was the data that was easily available. I don't think it's so odd though that this aggressive strategy is used while 4th down isn't. The consequences of lack of success are more significant if you go for it on 4th and fail, whereas the consequences typically aren't as significant if you only get to the 18. It's not that I didn't understand why. Also those types of stats don't factor in momentum shifts, which are very real on the field. I think, though, it's just one of those things that's so accepted that a coach will get little credit for it working out relative to the massive blame and ridicule for it failing. Look at the 4th down Belichick called vs I think it was Indy, and they weren't even inside their own 10 or close to it, and had a pretty good QB (and they cheat!). We still remember and talk about it because such a failure is considered a blunder rather than a calculated risk, from the coach so many consider the best there ever was. Point is there's statistical evidence that shows just because an aggressive move is shown to be the wrong one, they still take the conservative route. When it shows the same on a KOR, they're aggressive even though the result is typically a poor one. Not to mention, it comes with additional risk, like fumbles and injuries, that are wholly absent on touchbacks (notwithstanding J.Marshall fielding the ball). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, gEYno said: Both of them have averages over 25 yards, but that doesn't factor in distance from the endzone and they each only have one TD. Still can't say for sure that it's worth it. I'm not as worried about the overall average as much as game changing huge returns and tds. Look at the Miami game we drive all thew ay down and score on them to take the lead and although our kick off did not quite make it to the endzone the guy ran it back for a td. A massive momentum killer and really the reason we lost that game, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.