Air Raid Qbs in the NFL - why are they all bad?

[Bruce Harper]

3 hours ago, Philc1 said:

See you in about 23 days!

Yes.  And when Mayfield is a star in this league (and Allen a disappointment) I expect you to eat crow here.  I will do the same if I am wrong about Allen.

[Bruce Harper]

18 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Then ignore his years of performances at Wyoming in order to settle for a play or two at the senior bowl. Makes no difference to me...unless the Jets draft him.

Please don't let that happen.

[BCJet]

On 3/31/2018 at 2:53 PM, Philc1 said:

I love it.  Nick Foles the guy who was forced to hold a clipboard and take backup money up until last December is exhibit A as to why Air Raid Qbs are sooooooooooo good in the nfl

 

Geno Smith, Tim Couch, Manziel, Josh Heupel — different era amirite?

Do you think at all it could be because of the coaching/system?

Foles thrives in a simplified, college type system run by chip kelly  27 tds 2 picks.

Then goes to the rams where Jeff Fischer has an antiquated system run by some guy who isnt even an OC anymore.

Then Foles goes to Phila, where they play to his strengths, with a system designed with more college concepts.

Could it possibly be that the NFL is realizing this is an easier way to coach offense, and that while Im sure defenses will adapt, that air raid QBs could have a greater chance of success in the 2018 NFL vs 2006?

[Augustiniak]

greg cosell talks about having fast or slow eyes.  i think a lot of these qbs like geno can really sling the ball in college b/c their reads are largely predetermined, but then in the nfl they play slower b/c they're doing stuff they're unfamiliar with and uncomfortable with.  cosell talked about how darnold and allen he has concerns about not reading the field that well, while he prefers rosen and mayfield - the two qbs, not coincidentally, that are most linked to the jets and bates.  so yeah, i think the jets are targeting rosen and mayfield to run the WCO.

[Villain The Foe]

43 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Do you think at all it could be because of the coaching/system?

Foles thrives in a simplified, college type system run by chip kelly  27 tds 2 picks.

Then goes to the rams where Jeff Fischer has an antiquated system run by some guy who isnt even an OC anymore.

Then Foles goes to Phila, where they play to his strengths, with a system designed with more college concepts.

Could it possibly be that the NFL is realizing this is an easier way to coach offense, and that while Im sure defenses will adapt, that air raid QBs could have a greater chance of success in the 2018 NFL vs 2006?

^^^^^^

 

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, BCJet said:

Do you think at all it could be because of the coaching/system?

Foles thrives in a simplified, college type system run by chip kelly  27 tds 2 picks.

Then goes to the rams where Jeff Fischer has an antiquated system run by some guy who isnt even an OC anymore.

Then Foles goes to Phila, where they play to his strengths, with a system designed with more college concepts.

Could it possibly be that the NFL is realizing this is an easier way to coach offense, and that while Im sure defenses will adapt, that air raid QBs could have a greater chance of success in the 2018 NFL vs 2006?

Foles had 1 good season 5 years ago and a good month taking over Wentz’s team. The spread is being used in the nfl but nowhere near to the same degree as in college which is why so many spread only qbs fail in the nfl

[Philc1]

55 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

greg cosell talks about having fast or slow eyes.  i think a lot of these qbs like geno can really sling the ball in college b/c their reads are largely predetermined, but then in the nfl they play slower b/c they're doing stuff they're unfamiliar with and uncomfortable with.  cosell talked about how darnold and allen he has concerns about not reading the field that well, while he prefers rosen and mayfield - the two qbs, not coincidentally, that are most linked to the jets and bates.  so yeah, i think the jets are targeting rosen and mayfield to run the WCO.

It’s not like WCO isn’t the total opposite of the air raid 

[Claymation]

22 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Then ignore his years of performances at Wyoming in order to settle for a play or two at the senior bowl. Makes no difference to me...unless the Jets draft him.

From the CMU game moving forward, he has been quite impressive and he has been exposed to a pro-style offense & has made protection calls. Allen is not a day one starter, but he is much further along than  Mayfield who has no exposure to a pro style offense outside of the Senior Bowl.

And comparing Air Raid QBs to pro-style QBs make no sense. The philosophies of these offenses along with the timing and route concepts are just different. It's like comparing a baseball prospect in Las Vegas to someone in Wilkes Barre. One prospect plays where offensive stats are inflated while the other is closer to what they will become. Plus Air Raid QBs have predetermined reads, Rosen, Allen and Darnold are making reads. 

And it's not just QBs, Orlando Brown isn't asked to pass protect that long because the ball is out so quick. That is why his stock is dropping.

While I may prefer Rosen to Allen and Darnold, I would take all three ahead of Mayfield.

[Claymation]

5 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

Yes.  And when Mayfield is a star in this league (and Allen a disappointment) I expect you to eat crow here.  I will do the same if I am wrong about Allen.

Mayfield is closer to becoming Geno than becoming a star, I hope I am wrong but it appears to be inevitable. He is 2 to 3 years behind the 3 pro-style QBs. 

[Villain The Foe]

10 minutes ago, Claymation said:

From the CMU game moving forward, he has been quite impressive and he has been exposed to a pro-style offense & has made protection calls. Allen is not a day one starter, but he is much further along than  Mayfield who has no exposure to a pro style offense outside of the Senior Bowl.

And comparing Air Raid QBs to pro-style QBs make no sense. The philosophies of these offenses along with the timing and route concepts are just different. It's like comparing a baseball prospect in Las Vegas to someone in Wilkes Barre. One prospect plays where offensive stats are inflated while the other is closer to what they will become. Plus Air Raid QBs have predetermined reads, Rosen, Allen and Darnold are making reads. 

And it's not just QBs, Orlando Brown isn't asked to pass protect that long because the ball is out so quick. That is why his stock is dropping.

While I may prefer Rosen to Allen and Darnold, I would take all three ahead of Mayfield.

What is a pro style offense? 

[Claymation]

7 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

And I once threw a perfect forkball, but it doesn't mean I can pitch in major league baseball. Show me the mash up of ALL of his touch throws (it shouldn't take long to compile), then put together all of his throws where he held the ball too long because he refused to throw the ball until he "saw" his receiver open (that's gonna take awhile). He's a very nice kid with a boat load of arm strength and athletic ability. What he lacks is the "skill" of anticipation. He is unable to see something before it happens. You can not teach that, it is a God given ability (just like his arm strength and size). I've read, on more than one occasion, about Joe Namath's insane ability to see things on the field before they happened. One guy said he played pool with Namath and that Namath saw shots on the table that no one else did because he seemed to be able to see how all of the balls would interact with each other by just envisioning it. Since reading that, I've been an advocate of GM's taking college QBs out to play a game of 8 ball. It could very well be as useful and insightful as viewing hours of game video.

Well, Marino learned the skill of "anticipation", so you can learn that skill. Or maybe he always had it but never harnessed it because he had such a great arm with a quick release.

[Bruce Harper]

8 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Mayfield is closer to becoming Geno than becoming a star, I hope I am wrong but it appears to be inevitable. He is 2 to 3 years behind the 3 pro-style QBs. 

We can agree to disagree.  The proof is in the pudding.  And Allen isn't ready to do anything, except maybe sit for a year or two.

[Villain The Foe]

13 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Mayfield is closer to becoming Geno than becoming a star, I hope I am wrong but it appears to be inevitable. He is 2 to 3 years behind the 3 pro-style QBs. 

lol What???

Actually, after reading this please never mind my question to you. Welcome to Jetnation though Clay! 

 

[Claymation]

8 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

What is a pro style offense? 

Are you asking because you don't know?

Examples of pro style offenses are the WCO, Erhardt-Perkins and Air Coryell. Most Pro-Style offenses use a TE and have a running game that sets up play-action.

From a QB perspective they have to do a 3-5-7 step drop from under the center and turn there back to the defense. They are asked to make protection calls and read coverages.

[Villain The Foe]

21 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Are you asking because you don't know?

Examples of pro style offenses are the WCO, Erhardt-Perkins and Air Coryell. Most Pro-Style offenses use a TE and have a running game that sets up play-action.

From a QB perspective they have to do a 3-5-7 step drop from under the center and turn there back to the defense. They are asked to make protection calls and read coverages.

Im not asking for the google version Im asking you what is a pro style offense, the nuts and bolts...its function in your opinion. Telling me that it's a 3, 5 and 7 step drop from center doesnt tell me much, especially when the league is in shotgun 70% of the time (The entire league). Telling me that you turn your back to the defense only happens during play action. however, none of this explains what a pro style offense is. 

Give me your personal opinion on what it is, not the google version. 

[Sonny Werblin]

6 hours ago, Claymation said:

Well, Marino learned the skill of "anticipation", so you can learn that skill. Or maybe he always had it but never harnessed it because he had such a great arm with a quick release.

Wrong.

[Sonny Werblin]

15 hours ago, Claymation said:

From the CMU game moving forward, he has been quite impressive and he has been exposed to a pro-style offense & has made protection calls. Allen is not a day one starter, but he is much further along than  Mayfield who has no exposure to a pro style offense outside of the Senior Bowl.

And comparing Air Raid QBs to pro-style QBs make no sense. The philosophies of these offenses along with the timing and route concepts are just different. It's like comparing a baseball prospect in Las Vegas to someone in Wilkes Barre. One prospect plays where offensive stats are inflated while the other is closer to what they will become. Plus Air Raid QBs have predetermined reads, Rosen, Allen and Darnold are making reads. 

And it's not just QBs, Orlando Brown isn't asked to pass protect that long because the ball is out so quick. That is why his stock is dropping.

While I may prefer Rosen to Allen and Darnold, I would take all three ahead of Mayfield.

So much wrong, so little time.

First, "pre-determined reads". WTF are you talking about? A QB either has the freedom to read a D and audible, or he does not. In a very real sense, ALL reads are predetermined i.e. if you see this, do that.  Also, EVERY air raid O is heavily reliant on QB audibles. And by heavily, I mean 70% to 90%. The audible is one of the systems greatest attributes.

Second, mike shanahan and many other NFL coaches borrowed heavily from the air raid Os, which were based on the NFL run and shoot Os. So, it was an NFL O before it was a college O.

Third, Brown dropped because at the combine he was pitifully slow in the 40 and weak in the bench press 

[Jetsplayer21]

people who don’t know much about football, don’t like mayfield. They lack basic football Understanding. They are unable to recognize the many intangibles of the game. So they can only argue what they think they know. “Tallest qb, strongest arm = best qb “ ? Lol.

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

So much wrong, so little time.

First, "pre-determined reads". WTF are you talking about? A QB either has the freedom to read a D and audible, or he does not. In a very real sense, ALL reads are predetermined i.e. if you see this, do that.  Also, EVERY air raid O is heavily reliant on QB audibles. And by heavily, I mean 70% to 90%. The audible is one of the systems greatest attributes.

Second, mike shanahan and many other NFL coaches borrowed heavily from the air raid Os, which were based on the NFL run and shoot Os. So, it was an NFL O before it was a college O.

Third, Brown dropped because at the combine he was pitifully slow in the 40 and weak in the bench press 

By “pre-determined” he meant play designs where the qb will throw to a specific WR who the play was scripted for.   Most D1 colleges are doing that now

 

And yes that was a significant chunk of Oklahoma’s package

[Philc1]

16 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

What is a pro style offense? 

Qb under Center on more 20% or more of passing plays and at least 75% of running plays. I-formation in the package

 

Really the only 1st rd qbs who played “pro style” were Darnold and Allen.  But Air Raid takes shotgun spread to another level of video game football

[BCJet]

16 hours ago, Claymation said:

Mayfield is closer to becoming Geno than becoming a star, I hope I am wrong but it appears to be inevitable. He is 2 to 3 years behind the 3 pro-style QBs. 

What about the fact that mayfield actually plays the position of quarterback well - as in he completes passes on a regular basis, whereas Josh Allen is tall and can throw hard but didnt even complete 60% of his passes in Highschool.  Was he running a pro style offense then?

[BCJet]

2 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Qb under Center on more 20% or more of passing plays and at least 75% of running plays. I-formation in the package

 

Really the only 1st rd qbs who played “pro style” were Darnold and Allen.  But Air Raid takes shotgun spread to another level of video game football

Do you even watch college football?  Darnold absolutely did not even come close to playing in a pro style offense.  He had a TON of quick hitch plays, short passes, bubble screens etc.  

And with respect to the Air Raid - do you think Lincoln Riley simply took Hal Mumme's playbook and ran it without making any changes?  Its not so simple as saying a player can or cannot play due to their system in college anymore.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

There really isn’t such a thing as a pro offense in college. They’re all training wheels to some extent. You can’t run a real offense without a real quarterback and even the guys who will be one day aren’t yet. That said, the air raid in particular is designed to get by with whoever at quarterback.

[Villain The Foe]

Generally, the Pro Style offense is basically where the players line up in the formation. That's it! Here's an example of a pro style concept. 

We see the QB directly under center with running back directly behind him, with the TE playing in-line (Y receiver). Now let's show a Spread concept. 

It's the exact same formation, except the QB is in shotgun and the RB is over to the right. This takes away the typical "play action" that you would get from the pro style concept above, but this offers you the zone read option, which is why this is considered a spread concept. 

The Patriots run this type of offense often because of their personnel. Gronk is what makes that multiple offense work for the Patriots, it's always about this being such a completely different concept, most of the time it's about the personnel you have and their ability. With the Patriots and Gronk, you can run both concepts above more fluently, and back when they had Hernandez they could run this below. 

Again, just a modified formation. Instead of Y being in-line (which Gronk could play because he can block or get a clean release to run up the seam) now he's a move TE playing the slot. The H back is no longer playing behind the inline and the tackle but is also playing the slot. 

These are big physical guys that can beat up on slot corners and safeties. This is also a spread concept, but more of a "pure" spread concept because everyone near the LOS is giving receiver looks. 

Folks making a big stink about the potential success of QB's coming from the Spread offense/Pro Style are just talking. It's deeper than just the The name. It's about Personnel. Putting Jason Witten as an In-line is really great because he's a solid blocker and he's sneaky good when it comes to the passing game going up against ILB's. Simply playing Witten in-line and having Dak under center in the above example would make it a pro style look. Go to the Giants and you'll see them use Evan Engram in a pro style look with him at H-back, but from that position he'll run a go route. Then you'll see them put Engram on the outside, Manning in shot gun, RB in a zone position with the other receivers wide to the opposite side of the formation in order to isolate Engrams man. So in otherwords, you've gone from a pro style formation to a spread formation. 

 

Arguing this fact is moot because its obvious those who talk about guys coming from a form of Spread have no clue about the formations and how they can be similar. They dont know why formations are used, mostly because of personnel. We've seen Belichick completely remake his offensive attack the moment he was able to get versatile TE's that are big enough to block, smooth enough to run the seam routes but are also fast and are good with their route running to also go to the move position. 

All of this and that's not even touching on how the QB plays a part in these formations. Folks think a person like Mayfield would be behind the 8 ball when it comes to pro style vs what he played in college when it's not so cut and dry. Baker Mayfield has the ability to run both offenses, he would simply have to practice the drop backs and understand the timing aspect of playing under center. <<<<This is what folks point to regarding Baker, completely disregard the fact that you can change a formation type simply by putting the QB into shotgun...but it's essentially the same play with the added bonus of allowing the QB to see more of the defense pre snap in order to make pre snap decisions.

 

The Spread offense is all over the NFL, this continuous talk of pro style offense and college QB's being behind is nonsense. It comes down to what the teams are running and what the QB can offer physically which makes them a fit. Their aptitude to pick up the lingo, responsibilities etc is what every QB has to go through. Also, you make sure to implement what works for your QB, you dont go all Jeff Fischer on your QB and try to f'ing destroy him because "this is the offense and that's it". Coaching and understanding your personnel is what makes good football teams, not this "He ran an Air Raid" nonsense. Stop with the Shenanigans ladies and gentlemen. 

[Sonny Werblin]

14 hours ago, Philc1 said:

By “pre-determined” he meant play designs where the qb will throw to a specific WR who the play was scripted for.   Most D1 colleges are doing that now

 

And yes that was a significant chunk of Oklahoma’s package

Wrong again. Every air raid O is heavily dependent on QB audibles based on d coverages. They are NOT scripted and that is a laughable presumption/conclusion on your part.

[Philc1]

21 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

There really isn’t such a thing as a pro offense in college. They’re all training wheels to some extent. You can’t run a real offense without a real quarterback and even the guys who will be one day aren’t yet. That said, the air raid in particular is designed to get by with whoever at quarterback.

Tell that to Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz.  Both played pro style systems and what a shock had a much easier time adjusting than guys like Goff who stunk his rookie year and was ok last year handing off to Gurley and Paxton Lynch who is a bust

[Philc1]

9 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Wrong again. Every air raid O is heavily dependent on QB audibles based on d coverages. They are NOT scripted and that is a laughable presumption/conclusion on your part.

You’re actually going to say an offense that got idiots like Geno and Bryce Petty big time stats in college wasn’t at least partially scripted

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

25 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Tell that to Dak Prescott

The Dak Prescott who played in Urban Meyer’s offense under Mullen at Mississippi State? Is there another Dak Prescott?

[greenwichjetfan]

47 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Tell that to Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz.  Both played pro style systems and what a shock had a much easier time adjusting than guys like Goff who stunk his rookie year and was ok last year handing off to Gurley and Paxton Lynch who is a bust

 

19 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

The Dak Prescott who played in Urban Meyer’s offense under Mullen at Mississippi State? Is there another Dak Prescott?

Dak wasn’t solely great two years ago, and when more of the offense shifted to him this past year, he struggled heavily.

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

 

Dak wasn’t solely great two years ago, and when more of the offense shifted to him this past year, he struggled heavily.

Yup. The true spark to that offense was Ezekiel Elliot. Dak got the love because he's the QB. When Zek wasnt around and that offensive line wasnt like it was the year before, Dak was a totally different QB. He wasnt bad, but it was clear to see that he wasnt carrying that offense the way a Aaron Rodgers carries an offense. 

Also, it should be noted that Dak didnt play in a pro style offense in college. He played in a similar offense as Tim Tebow. Matter of fact, looking at Dak's NFL comparison he was always compared to Tim Tebow "with a better arm". They played in the same system because the HC at Mississippi was Tim Tebow's OC at Florida. Dak Prescott actually patterned his game behind Tebow. 

[Philc1]

3 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

The Dak Prescott who played in Urban Meyer’s offense under Mullen at Mississippi State? Is there another Dak Prescott?

Yes

[Philc1]

3 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

 

Dak wasn’t solely great two years ago, and when more of the offense shifted to him this past year, he struggled heavily.

Here we go the Mayfield d-ckriders now saying Dak Prescott sucks

[greenwichjetfan]

25 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Here we go the Mayfield d-ckriders now saying Dak Prescott sucks

 

I want Rosen, but otherwise great post. My comment stiill stands: Dak wasn’t solely great two years ago, and when more of the offense shifted to him this past year, he struggled heavily.

[Sonny Werblin]

18 hours ago, Philc1 said:

You’re actually going to say an offense that got idiots like Geno and Bryce Petty big time stats in college wasn’t at least partially scripted

You literally know nothing.

[Villain The Foe]

5 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

You literally know nothing.

Cuz you know, all those short qb's in a spread offense in college cant cut it. Lmao. Lets continue to listen to the peanut gallery though.