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Air Raid Qbs in the NFL - why are they all bad?


Philc1

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For the people trying to use Nick Foles’ one good month in the nfl as the big card to show that air raid qbs might actually be good in the nfl— The Eagles incorporated a lot of gimmicky air raid concepts into their offense if you watched the Super Bowl.  Bates and the Jets run a version of WCO which is totally opposite from air raid

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5 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

So?

As to Foles's first 5 seasons, this guy did put up a season where he threw 27 TDs and 2 INts.

 

#cherrypicking how did Nick do the other years?  Why was Foles forced to take a backup job?

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There are a couple reasons why, many of which do not hold up in the 2018 and beyond NFL.  Also, dont forget case keenum

One reason that does hold up is that you can be successful as a cerebral, accurate QB in college without NFL level arm strength.  Those guys simply dont have the skill set to succeed in the league. No more or less then a good Big Ten Inside LB who simply isnt fast enough for the NFL.

Next is the type of offense.  Until we started implementing spread concepts into the NFL, the learning curve was too steep (especially if you dont have the requisite arm strength) to go from the air raid to a 5 step drop offense with 2 WRs, a TE and RB/FB.  

The NFL is one of the least accepting of change of any industry in the world. People like Brian Schottenheimer and Marty Mornenwhig still have jobs as Offensive Coordinators despite TONS of statistical evidence that they are bad at their jobs.  The NFL is "shocked" at how good guys like McVey and Kyle Shanahan are yet all those guys are doing is simplifying the offense and playing within the new rules to make their QB's jobs easier.  I dont know how good Goff will be, but he certainly isnt good playing Jeff Fischer's absurd 2002 NFL offense, and he might not be as good as year 1 in McVey's offense, but he certainly is better off playing in a modified spread.

Guys like Foles need a simplified offense, thats why he was great with Chip Kelly, bad with Jeff Fischer and good with Doug Pederson.  You need a coach who doesnt have an ego, and simply designs plays and a game plan around your strengths and the opponents weakness.  The NFL is moving more towards these types of offenses simply because defenses dont have the same advantages they had as recently as 6 or 7 years ago.  Add in the new targeting rule that was put in place yesterday and offense will be even easier in 2018 - you need to find an accurate QB, who can keep his eyes downfield and find his second or third option while being able to move in the pocket and/or run the ball on occasion.  You dont need an accurate QB who keeps his eyes downfield AND who is also 6'4 235 and who has an upper echelon arm.

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2 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

For the people trying to use Nick Foles’ one good month in the nfl as the big card to show that air raid qbs might actually be good in the nfl— The Eagles incorporated a lot of gimmicky air raid concepts into their offense if you watched the Super Bowl.  Bates and the Jets run a version of WCO which is totally opposite from air raid

Yes and how did that go?

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Means nothing because the trend in football is the incorporation of "college elements" into
pro offenses.  Over the next 5-10 years this won't even be a topic because more college coaches
will be moving into the pros and bringing their offenses with them

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4 minutes ago, KRL said:

Means nothing because the trend in football is the incorporation of "college elements" into
pro offenses.  Over the next 5-10 years this won't even be a topic because more college coaches
will be moving into the pros and bringing their offenses with them

Well Chip Kelly won't be one of them.  

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45 minutes ago, BCJet said:

There are a couple reasons why, many of which do not hold up in the 2018 and beyond NFL.  Also, dont forget case keenum

One reason that does hold up is that you can be successful as a cerebral, accurate QB in college without NFL level arm strength.  Those guys simply dont have the skill set to succeed in the league. No more or less then a good Big Ten Inside LB who simply isnt fast enough for the NFL.

Next is the type of offense.  Until we started implementing spread concepts into the NFL, the learning curve was too steep (especially if you dont have the requisite arm strength) to go from the air raid to a 5 step drop offense with 2 WRs, a TE and RB/FB.  

The NFL is one of the least accepting of change of any industry in the world. People like Brian Schottenheimer and Marty Mornenwhig still have jobs as Offensive Coordinators despite TONS of statistical evidence that they are bad at their jobs.  The NFL is "shocked" at how good guys like McVey and Kyle Shanahan are yet all those guys are doing is simplifying the offense and playing within the new rules to make their QB's jobs easier.  I dont know how good Goff will be, but he certainly isnt good playing Jeff Fischer's absurd 2002 NFL offense, and he might not be as good as year 1 in McVey's offense, but he certainly is better off playing in a modified spread.

Guys like Foles need a simplified offense, thats why he was great with Chip Kelly, bad with Jeff Fischer and good with Doug Pederson.  You need a coach who doesnt have an ego, and simply designs plays and a game plan around your strengths and the opponents weakness.  The NFL is moving more towards these types of offenses simply because defenses dont have the same advantages they had as recently as 6 or 7 years ago.  Add in the new targeting rule that was put in place yesterday and offense will be even easier in 2018 - you need to find an accurate QB, who can keep his eyes downfield and find his second or third option while being able to move in the pocket and/or run the ball on occasion.  You dont need an accurate QB who keeps his eyes downfield AND who is also 6'4 235 and who has an upper echelon arm.

All the Baker Mayfield d-cksuckers just ignore everything you say and all the air raid qbs who did nothing in the nfl and just say “look at Allen’s completion percentage”

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43 minutes ago, KRL said:

Means nothing because the trend in football is the incorporation of "college elements" into
pro offenses.  Over the next 5-10 years this won't even be a topic because more college coaches
will be moving into the pros and bringing their offenses with them

The problem is there is a reason why pro style offense is called pro style

 

DBs in the nfl are ALOT faster than in college and have greater range.  The Air Raid is based on spacing — those spaces won’t be there consistently on the pro level

 

Pro style offenses mitigate this by keeping Qbs under center primarily to hand off to the rb in I formation or single back. Effective running games set up the pass 

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51 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

#cherrypicking how did Nick do the other years?  Why was Foles forced to take a backup job?

Would you be happy with 80% win rate, 64% completions, 27/3 TD:INT?  I think if Darnold/Rose/Allen/Hackenberg did that you would sh*t your pants with joy.  Yes, that was a gimmicky offense too, but maybe the problem isn't the Air Raid QBs.  It may be the old school NFL coaches. 

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53 minutes ago, KRL said:

Means nothing because the trend in football is the incorporation of "college elements" into
pro offenses.  Over the next 5-10 years this won't even be a topic because more college coaches
will be moving into the pros and bringing their offenses with them

This has been attempted before, doesnt work in the NFL.  Defenses are too good in the NFL.  

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11 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Would you be happy with 80% win rate, 64% completions, 27/3 TD:INT?  I think if Darnold/Rose/Allen/Hackenberg did that you would sh*t your pants with joy.  Yes, that was a gimmicky offense too, but maybe the problem isn't the Air Raid QBs.  It may be the old school NFL coaches. 

Foles was considered a JAG less than 4 months ago.  Enough revisionist history about Nick Foles already he had one good month with Wentz’s team 

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1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

#cherrypicking how did Nick do the other years?  Why was Foles forced to take a backup job?

 

1 minute ago, Philc1 said:

Foles was considered a JAG less than 4 months ago.  Enough revisionist history about Nick Foles already he had one good month with Wentz’s team 

You: Nick Foles sucked the 5 years before this one.

Me: What about that great season he had with the historic TD/INT ratio?

You: REVISIONIST HISTORY!

 

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2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Foles also had the good fortune to play his best game in the SB.

He had a few really bad games leading into the playofffs.  

And that SB was against an average at best Pats Defense without it’s best CB 

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Just now, Philc1 said:

So now 1 month = Season 

 

And let’s ignore the previous 5 years the Baker Mayfield d-cksucks confirmation bias needs  to be in ALL CAPS

 

They play ten games in a month?  I was talking about 2013.  You know, one of the 5 years before 2017 that you think he sucked.  I am surprised to learn that I am a Baker Mayfield dicksuck, but I have been posting here a long time.  I guess that sometimes it is just instinct. 

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1 hour ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Its hard to say that when Nick Foles just won a Super Bowl and didn't go for the ride

Hey, Nick Foles was fantastic in the NFCCG and Super Bowl, no one can take that away from him...

But who the hell would sign up right now to hitch their wagon to him for the next 5+ years as their starter?

No one besides a handful of dildo fans who have completely forgotten what he amounted to in St. Louis.

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4 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

They play ten games in a month?  I was talking about 2013.  You know, one of the 5 years before 2017 that you think he sucked.  I am surprised to learn that I am a Baker Mayfield dicksuck, but I have been posting here a long time.  I guess that sometimes it is just instinct. 

And Foles sucked in 2014 and was a JAG backup in KC.  We don’t have the same playbook as Doug Pederson and Bates is at best an unknown commodity as a playcaller who knows if hes skilled enough to incorporate a college offense Bowles certainly won’t help him

 

And the Eagles had arguably the best offensive line in the nfl 

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3 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

And Foles sucked in 2014 and was a JAG backup in KC.  We don’t have the same playbook as Doug Pederson and Bates is at best an unknown commodity as a playcaller who knows if hes skilled enough to incorporate a college offense Bowles certainly won’t help him

 

And the Eagles had arguably the best offensive line in the nfl 

If a player can play well and the coach can't set him up to succeed get a new coach.  If a coach can succeed, but the player can't fulfill his duties on the play, get a new player.  If you have no idea about your offensive coach, make a bunch of definitive statements! 

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6 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

If a player can play well and the coach can't set him up to succeed get a new coach.  If a coach can succeed, but the player can't fulfill his duties on the play, get a new player.  If you have no idea about your offensive coach, make a bunch of definitive statements! 

So it was Rex’s fault Geno wasn’t good?

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49 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

All the Baker Mayfield d-cksuckers just ignore everything you say and all the air raid qbs who did nothing in the nfl and just say “look at Allen’s completion percentage”

What does this even mean?

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