Air Raid Qbs in the NFL - why are they all bad?

[Philc1]

On 4/3/2018 at 4:26 PM, Bruce Harper said:

We can agree to disagree.  The proof is in the pudding.  And Allen isn't ready to do anything, except maybe sit for a year or two.

Based on... completion percentage?  Favre and Montana had lower completion percentages in college

[Philc1]

5 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

You literally know nothing.

Wah! Someone disagrees Wah!

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, Villain The Foe said:

Cuz you know, all those short qb's in a spread offense in college cant cut it. Lmao. Lets continue to listen to the peanut gallery though.

 

Brees didn’t play in air raid at Purdue 

[Villain The Foe]

23 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

 

Dak wasn’t solely great two years ago, and when more of the offense shifted to him this past year, he struggled heavily.

Here's actual film breakdown of Dez Bryant. A lot of folks in the media have been throwing rocks at Dez but look at the numerous issues coming from Dak in this breakdown. This breakdown is coming from a Cowboys fan and a person with a football background. 

I doubt folks are saying Dak sucks because of Baker Mayfield, folks are simply saying to look at the tape and stop being so emotional. This video will start at the 7:12 mark. Lets see folks damage control this and make it a Baker Mayfield thing. 

 

[Villain The Foe]

4 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Brees didn’t play in air raid at Purdue 

Air Raid is a type of spread offense. In other words, Brees didn't run a pro style offense in college. 

That fact should be okay with you since you showing a picture of Dak under center must mean that he played in a Pro Style offense in college when he didn't. 

Keep running your mouth though. Im about to own you with your Dak Prescott comment in a second. 

[Villain The Foe]

1 minute ago, Villain The Foe said:

Here's actual film breakdown of Dez Bryant. A lot of folks in the media have been throwing rocks at Dez but look at the numerous issues coming from Dak in this breakdown. This breakdown is coming from a Cowboys fan and a person with a football background. 

I doubt folks are saying Dak sucks because of Baker Mayfield, folks are simply saying to look at the tape and stop being so emotional. This video will start at the 7:12 mark. Lets see folks damage control this and make it a Baker Mayfield thing. 

 

@Philc1

[Philc1]

2 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Air Raid is a form of spread. 

What part of Brees and Mayfield didn’t play in the system do you not understand?

[Villain The Foe]

21 hours ago, Philc1 said:

What part of Brees and Mayfield didn’t play in the system do you not understand?

lol Philc1, brother......LISTEN. 

 

The Spread Offense IS the system/scheme, Air Raid is a subset or category within the system! 

 

They BOTH played in the same system which is the SPREAD OFFENSE. THAT IS THE SYSTEM!!

That's like saying someone didn't play in the Pro style offense (OR SYSTEM) because they played in an Air Coryell and not a west coast. West Coast Offense isnt the system, it's a category within the Pro Style offense THAT IS THE SYSTEM THAT THE WCO IS UNDER!!!!!!

 

Dude, stop fighting it. 

 

 

[Sonny Werblin]

24 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Wah! Someone disagrees Wah!

It's not a disagreement, you lack actual knowledge regarding a QBs role and responsibilities in an Air Raid offense. You are literally arguing that 2+2=15 when you contend that a high percentage of the plays are scripted. It is s fact that they are not. An Air Raid QB is required to read coverage keys and to audible. It is one of the reasons why the offense is effective. 

I guess you can say we "disagree" but it's just like saying that I disagree with Flat Earthers. 

[JustInFudge]

On 4/3/2018 at 4:52 PM, Villain The Foe said:

Im not asking for the google version Im asking you what is a pro style offense, the nuts and bolts...its function in your opinion. Telling me that it's a 3, 5 and 7 step drop from center doesnt tell me much, especially when the league is in shotgun 70% of the time (The entire league). Telling me that you turn your back to the defense only happens during play action. however, none of this explains what a pro style offense is. 

Give me your personal opinion on what it is, not the google version. 

Didnt want the google version.

On 4/4/2018 at 11:22 AM, Villain The Foe said:

Generally, the Pro Style offense is basically where the players line up in the formation. That's it! Here's an example of a pro style concept. 

We see the QB directly under center with running back directly behind him, with the TE playing in-line (Y receiver). Now let's show a Spread concept. 

It's the exact same formation, except the QB is in shotgun and the RB is over to the right. This takes away the typical "play action" that you would get from the pro style concept above, but this offers you the zone read option, which is why this is considered a spread concept. 

The Patriots run this type of offense often because of their personnel. Gronk is what makes that multiple offense work for the Patriots, it's always about this being such a completely different concept, most of the time it's about the personnel you have and their ability. With the Patriots and Gronk, you can run both concepts above more fluently, and back when they had Hernandez they could run this below. 

A

Copy and pasted the google version. 

[JustInFudge]

On 4/4/2018 at 12:00 AM, Jetsplayer21 said:

people who don’t know much about football, don’t like mayfield. They lack basic football Understanding. They are unable to recognize the many intangibles of the game. So they can only argue what they think they know. “Tallest qb, strongest arm = best qb “ ? Lol.

I would argue that people who dont know too much about Football, like Mayfield because of his stats! and his histrionics!

Whereas, people who follow Football and know a lot about it know that Mayfield is going to have to overcome a lot of odds to be successful; Short for the positions, small hands, bad mechanics, Big 12, Air raid - have historically been a bad recipe for QB prospects which is why you dont typically see them going at the top of the draft.  Mayfield doent really posses anything super special as a prospect, he's just a dude who ran an offense perfectly in college.  Maybe Mayfield overcomes all those factors playing against him but he would be 1 of the few in the history who have.  Not to say he cant, just saying, he's overcoming odds. 

In general, acting like one has superior football knowledge posting on a football forum is silly though it is obvious in certain situations. 

 

 

[Villain The Foe]

9 minutes ago, JiF said:

Didnt want the google version.

Copy and pasted the google version. 

I actually wrote that, and I can prove it. Here's 1 example from my write up. 

To quote myself: 

Quote

 Go to the Giants and you'll see them use Evan Engram in a pro style look with him at H-back, but from that position he'll run a go route.

I wrote the above by looking at this video below. 

the first example of Engram playing H-Back from a "pro style look" and running a "go route" is actually the first play of the video. 

 

To quote myself again:

Quote

Then you'll see them put Engram on the outside, Manning in shotgun, RB in a zone position with the other receivers wide to the opposite side of the formation in order to isolate Engrams man. So in otherwords, you've gone from a pro style formation to a spread formation. 

The second example of Engram on the outside and the offense being in the spread is the very next play. 

 

 

But I did get the pics from Google

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, Villain The Foe said:

I actually wrote that, and I can prove it. Here's 1 example from my write up. 

To quote myself: 

I wrote the above by looking at this video below. 

the first example of Engram playing H-Back from a "pro style look" and running a "go route" is actually the first play of the video. 

 

To quote myself again:

The second example of Engram on the outside and the offense being in the spread is the very next play. 

 

 

But I did get the pics from Google

I was just busting your balls but I've watched hundreds of college Football games from teams who runs spread offenses who motion their HBack out of the backfield. Urban Myer used to use Aaron Hernandez this way, all the time. 

My point, that's not the tell all example.  Just as lining up a joker TE as a WR isnt the tell all example someone is running the spread.  I think in general nowadays, NFL teams incorporate concepts but mostly, they're just trying to find the mismatch which is why you see joker type players moving all around the field.  

[Villain The Foe]

21 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Yes

See Philc1, when folks try to explain things to you, you go and do things like this. You find a picture of Dak Prescott under center and suddenly that made him a QB that ran the pro style system in college????

#1. The picture that you presented, is Dak at the Senior Bowl, not at Mississippi. Look at the helmets! 

#2. Here's a picture of Baker Mayfield under center at the Senior Bowl as well. Does that mean he ran a Pro Style offense????

 

#3. This is a picture of Baker Mayfield under center AT OKLAHOMA against Texas Tech. Does that mean he ran a Pro Style Offense???

 

 

None of these pictures prove that any of these QB's played in a Pro Style offense in college. THEY DIDNT. The pic you had wasn't even a picture of Dak at Mississippi. It's the same Senior Bowl All-Star game where Baker Mayfield (and every other quarterback at the Senior Bowl) was under center. 

 

Furthermore, you are talking about the Air Raid, which is a variant of the Spread Offense, and are getting upset when I show you plenty of QB's who are successful in the league today coming from the Spread. For some reason you think that "I cant do that", and that im some how breaking a rule. Bro, you didn't specify the "Pro Style offense" yourself,  you're just talking about the "Pro Style Offense" as a whole. Well, the Pro Style, like the Spread is a SYSTEM, Air Raid or WCO are subsets of Spread and Pro Style.

You're comparing apples to oranges. Lastly, there's more Spread concepts in today's game than there has ever been. The reason why we're in a PASSING LEAGUE isnt because of pro style passing, but further implementation of Spread concepts which includes elements from Air Raid subsets. 

This is why running backs who can only Run are no longer a high valued commodity. You need to be able to catch the football from the back field. This is why those huge Zach Thomas-like Linebackers are going extinct and now its more about smaller Linebackers that are fast, that can stay clean in order to make the tackle and help in coverage given how the offense are "SPREADING OUT" defenses. 

This isnt about trying to show you up because of Baker, you dont have to like Mayfield, but you're incorrect with this subject bro. 

[BCJet]

14 minutes ago, JiF said:

I would argue that people who dont know too much about Football, like Mayfield because of his stats! and his histrionics!

Whereas, people who follow Football and know a lot about it know that Mayfield is going to have to overcome a lot of odds to be successful; Short for the positions, small hands, bad mechanics, Big 12, Air raid - have historically been a bad recipe for QB prospects which is why you dont typically see them going at the top of the draft.  Mayfield doent really posses anything super special as a prospect, he's just a dude who ran an offense perfectly in college.  Maybe Mayfield overcomes all those factors playing against him but he would be 1 of the few in the history who have.  Not to say he cant, just saying, he's overcoming odds. 

In general, acting like one has superior football knowledge posting on a football forum is silly though it is obvious in certain situations. 

 

 

Why do you think Mayfield has bad mechanics?

Personally one of the things that I think is a big plus for him is his ability to move and throw accurately from different arm angles when he is pressured and cant get into perfect throwing form.  Plus, I think that mechanics lead to accuracy or inaccuracy and mayfields absurd accuracy with the ball would lead me to believe that whatever he is doing mechanically he should keep doing.

[Villain The Foe]

27 minutes ago, JiF said:

I was just busting your balls but I've watched hundreds of college Football games from teams who runs spread offenses who motion their HBack out of the backfield. Urban Myer used to use Aaron Hernandez this way, all the time. 

My point, that's not the tell all example.  Just as lining up a joker TE as a WR isnt the tell all example someone is running the spread.  I think in general nowadays, NFL teams incorporate concepts but mostly, they're just trying to find the mismatch which is why you see joker type players moving all around the field.  

You're absolutely right, which is why I started off my quote as saying "generally". I also made sure to mention that it's about "personnel"...that was one of the reasons why I used Jason Witten as an example of a guy who can play in-line. At his age now he's not really doing it in the slot, but his experience and understanding of the position still makes him an asset in the Cowboys system. He's the perfect example of a guy who wins via experience and intellect over raw physical attributes. 

Then I used Gronk to show that, again...its about Personnel. This is why I mentioned how Belichick completely revamped his offensive scheme because he understood his personnel....what Gronkowski could do on a field ball field. 

That's why I ended my quote by saying that "you cant go all Jeff Fischer on a player and destroy him because this is just my offense that's it". Outside of the systems/schemes/subsets we have to also understand the importance of Personnel, and coaches understanding personnel and how to utilize their players. Jeff Fischer is a perfect example of a guy who's ruined QB's in the past (Vince Young) and almost ruined another in Goff. 

However, if Goff failed, folks with agendas wouldn't have not looked at the coach, but tried to associate Goff coming from a Spread/Air Raid system. 

There's so much more at play, but some folks around here dont want to hear that. 

[Jetsplayer21]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

I would argue that people who dont know too much about Football, like Mayfield because of his stats! and his histrionics!

Whereas, people who follow Football and know a lot about it know that Mayfield is going to have to overcome a lot of odds to be successful; Short for the positions, small hands, bad mechanics, Big 12, Air raid - have historically been a bad recipe for QB prospects which is why you dont typically see them going at the top of the draft.  Mayfield doent really posses anything super special as a prospect, he's just a dude who ran an offense perfectly in college.  Maybe Mayfield overcomes all those factors playing against him but he would be 1 of the few in the history who have.  Not to say he cant, just saying, he's overcoming odds. 

In general, acting like one has superior football knowledge posting on a football forum is silly though it is obvious in certain situations. 

 

 

Lol thanks for the laugh ?. Yes let’s dismiss he is by far the most accurate, often used his awareness like a pro to use his 2nd or 3rd options instead of being locked on 1 like the others, has the second strongest arm, and along with Rosen the best football iq. 

Thanks for proving we have another mental midget among us lol

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

I would argue that people who dont know too much about Football, like Mayfield because of his stats! and his histrionics!

 

You could also argue that there are people who dont know much about football, dislikes Mayfield because he didn't play in a pro style offense and he's 6'1. 

 

[greenwichjetfan]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Mayfield is going to have to overcome a lot of odds to be successful; Short for the positions, small hands, bad mechanics, Big 12, Air raid - have historically been a bad recipe for QB prospects which is why you dont typically see them going at the top of the draft.  Mayfield doent really posses anything super special as a prospect, he's just a dude who ran an offense perfectly in college.  Maybe Mayfield overcomes all those factors playing against him but he would be 1 of the few in the history who have.  Not to say he cant, just saying, he's overcoming odds.

This has been my entire sentiment regarding Baker from the start.

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

This has been my entire sentiment regarding Baker from the start.

This isnt the same league. This is why when people talk about "historically" you have to figure out what the actual history is. The Spread was used for the first time in the NFL in 1995 by the Seattle Seahawks. That's less than 25 years ago. If the Jets drafted Mayfield, Mayfield would actually fit in the scheme. The Jets have implemented the Spread in their offense. Matter of fact, the Jets went "Full Spread offense" in 2015, you know, the year that the Jets Offense finally was seen in the top 10 off total offense...with a QB named Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

The Patriots run a spread defense. Folks laughed at me a couple weeks back when I said this. Their receivers (Amendola, Edelman) were receivers in Air Raid offenses back in college. The Jets have been running the Spread since 2015, though John Morton did dial back the "spread concepts" when it took over for Chan in comparison, there was still A TON of Spread concepts being ran by the Jets offense. 

The league is running spread offense. The most dominant teams are looking at their player personnel and realizing that they could take advantage of defenses by changing to Spread. I just explained to @JiF how the Patriots drafted Gronk and Aaron Hernandez then revamped their offense given their skillset. They were both drafted in 2010 and the Pats changed to spread in 2011. Go look at the impact that change had on Tom Brady. 

From 2001 to 2010 Brady had just three seasons where he threw over 4,000 yards. Also, in that same time span he had 7 seasons where he threw double digit INT's. 

From 2011-today, running the Spread offense Brady has thrown for over 4,000 yards every single season. You may look and say "not in 2016" well, he missed the first 4 games due to suspension, yet he threw for 3,500 yards in 12 games. It's safe to say that he would have found a way to throw for 500 more yards in those 4 games if not suspended. Also, his INT's drastically dropped, having thrown double digit INT's only twice since converting to the spread offense. And that makes sense given the structure of the Spread. Tom's Job is to get the ball to guys who can get yards and score. He has to do with with accuracy, but more importantly, ball placement in order to hit these guys in stride. 

This is probably why, we hear about the Patriots having great interest in Baker Mayfield. But of course, Jets fans as a whole can only like QB's after Bill Belichick confirms it. (See Jimmy G) 

The Spread is relatively new in the NFL. This "NFL is a Passing league" really started less than a decade ago, and it started because of the Spread offense. This chart at the bottom doesn't even have the Saints on it. The Saints run a Spread offense. Their offense is unstoppable. 

So when Jif talk about a guy who "perfected this system in college" and you confirm, what Im seeing is a guy who ran this system perfectly coming into a PASSING LEAGUE where the Spread is implemented more than it has ever been. 

So yes, many of these QB's coming in now are not going to have the same issues having to learn a new system in respects to not just philosophy & verbiage , but route combinations and the overall reason behind that type of offense (Pro style for example). 

Put Baker Mayfield in that NY Jets 2015 offense. You telling me he couldn't run that? We would have made the playoffs just by having him as our QB and not Fitz. This isnt just a guy who ran the spread, this is a guy who has ran it the most efficiently in college history. That's the difference. He's not some typical spread QB, based on his performance, he's the best to ever play in the Spread based on efficiency. You dont draft him and put him in a system without implementing what he's good at. The spread is gaining traction in this league, more Air Raid QB's are showing that they can be successful (Mahomes, Goff), Veteran Air Raid QB's are showing that if you implement what they are good at they can produce a highly efficient offense (Case Keenum) and an Air Raid QB just won the super bowl over another QB who put up over 500 yards passing in that game as well and that Super Bowl ended up producing the most offense of any other Super bowl before it (Nick Foles, Tom Brady). 

9 QB's have thrown for 5,000 yards in a season or more, 5 came from a sub 6'0 QB in Brees who runs a spread offense and 1 is Tom Brady who won it in 2011...the year the Pats changed to a spread offense. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley led the Rams to the #1 offense in the league last year. A QB who essentially ran an Air Raid offense in College. Todd Gurley was an MVP candidate not solely because of his 1,300 yards rushing and 13 TD's, but his 800  yards receiving, 6 TD's and averaging 12 yards per catch out of the backfield. That's all based on spread concepts. 

Like I said weeks ago when these conversations were really getting started, in a few years folks talking about "Pro Style offenses" will seem like Dinosaurs. The league is moving more an more into Spread concepts, and it's beginning with playing rookie QB's, playing them more in shotgun in order to see more of the defense, and "spreading" the defense out in order to get a better idea of what the defense is doing. How the safeties are aligned as well as having a clearer view of who the Mike is. 

NFL teams that used the Spread offense[edit]

Start	End	Team	Head coach	Offensive coordinator
1995	1998	Seattle Seahawks	Dennis Erickson	Bob Bratkowski
2002	2003	Washington Redskins	Steve Spurrier	Hue Jackson
2003	2004	San Francisco 49ers	Dennis Erickson	Greg Knapp and Ted Tollner
2011	—	New England Patriots	Bill Belichick	Bill O'Brien / Josh McDaniels
2013	2015	Philadelphia Eagles	Chip Kelly	Pat Shurmur
2014		Houston Texans	Bill O'Brien	George Godsey
2014	2015	Miami Dolphins	Joe Philbin	Bill Lazor
2014	2015	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Lovie Smith	Jeff Tedford
2015	—	New York Jets	Todd Bowles	Chan Gailey/John Morton
2016	2016	San Francisco 49ers	Chip Kelly	Curtis Modkins

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

Lol thanks for the laugh ?. Yes let’s dismiss he is by far the most accurate, often used his awareness like a pro to use his 2nd or 3rd options instead of being locked on 1 like the others, has the second strongest arm, and along with Rosen the best football iq. 

Thanks for proving we have another mental midget among us lol

Thanks for this hot take, Jetsplayer21.

[JustInFudge]

13 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

This isnt the same league. This is why when people talk about "historically" you have to figure out what the actual history is. The Spread was used for the first time in the NFL in 1995 by the Seattle Seahawks. That's less than 25 years ago. If the Jets drafted Mayfield, Mayfield would actually fit in the scheme. The Jets have implemented the Spread in their offense. Matter of fact, the Jets went "Full Spread offense" in 2015, you know, the year that the Jets Offense finally was seen in the top 10 off total offense...with a QB named Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

The Patriots run a spread defense. Folks laughed at me a couple weeks back when I said this. Their receivers (Amendola, Edelman) were receivers in Air Raid offenses back in college. The Jets have been running the Spread since 2015, though John Morton did dial back the "spread concepts" when it took over for Chan in comparison, there was still A TON of Spread concepts being ran by the Jets offense. 

The league is running spread offense. The most dominant teams are looking at their player personnel and realizing that they could take advantage of defenses by changing to Spread. I just explained to @JiF how the Patriots drafted Gronk and Aaron Hernandez then revamped their offense given their skillset. They were both drafted in 2010 and the Pats changed to spread in 2011. Go look at the impact that change had on Tom Brady. 

From 2001 to 2010 Brady had just three seasons where he threw over 4,000 yards. Also, in that same time span he had 7 seasons where he threw double digit INT's. 

From 2011-today, running the Spread offense Brady has thrown for over 4,000 yards every single season. You may look and say "not in 2016" well, he missed the first 4 games due to suspension, yet he threw for 3,500 yards in 12 games. It's safe to say that he would have found a way to throw for 500 more yards in those 4 games if not suspended. Also, his INT's drastically dropped, having thrown double digit INT's only twice since converting to the spread offense. And that makes sense given the structure of the Spread. Tom's Job is to get the ball to guys who can get yards and score. He has to do with with accuracy, but more importantly, ball placement in order to hit these guys in stride. 

This is probably why, we hear about the Patriots having great interest in Baker Mayfield. But of course, Jets fans as a whole can only like QB's after Bill Belichick confirms it. (See Jimmy G) 

The Spread is relatively new in the NFL. This "NFL is a Passing league" really started less than a decade ago, and it started because of the Spread offense. This chart at the bottom doesn't even have the Saints on it. The Saints run a Spread offense. Their offense is unstoppable. 

So when Jif talk about a guy who "perfected this system in college" and you confirm, what Im seeing is a guy who ran this system perfectly coming into a PASSING LEAGUE where the Spread is implemented more than it has ever been. 

So yes, many of these QB's coming in now are not going to have the same issues having to learn a new system in respects to not just philosophy & verbiage , but route combinations and the overall reason behind that type of offense (Pro style for example). 

Put Baker Mayfield in that NY Jets 2015 offense. You telling me he couldn't run that? We would have made the playoffs just by having him as our QB and not Fitz. This isnt just a guy who ran the spread, this is a guy who has ran it the most efficiently in college history. That's the difference. He's not some typical spread QB, based on his performance, he's the best to every play in the Spread. You dont draft him and put him in a system without implementing what he's good at. The spread is gaining traction in this league, more Air Raid QB's are showing that they can be successful (Mahomes, Goff), Veteran Air Raid QB's are showing that if you implement what they are good at they can produce a highly efficient offense (Case Keenum) and an Air Raid QB just won the super bowl over another QB who put up over 500 yards passing in that game as well and that Super Bowl ended up producing the most offense of any other Super bowl before it (Nick Foles, Tom Brady). 

9 QB's have thrown for 5,000 yards in a season or more, 5 came from a sub 6'0 QB in Brees who runs a spread offense and 1 is Tom Brady who won it in 2011...the year the Pats changed to a spread offense. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley led the Rams to the #1 offense in the league last year. A QB who essentially ran an Air Raid offense in College. Todd Gurley was an MVP candidate not solely because of his 1,300 yards rushing and 13 TD's, but his 800  yards receiving, 6 TD's and averaging 12 yards per catch out of the backfield. That's all based on spread concepts. 

Like I said weeks ago when these conversations were really getting started, in a few years folks talking about "Pro Style offenses" will seem like Dinosaurs. The league is moving more an more into Spread concepts, and it's beginning with playing rookie QB's, playing them more in shotgun in order to see more of the defense, and "spreading" the defense out in order to get a better idea of what the defense is doing. How the safeties are aligned as well as having a clearer view of who the Mike is. 

NFL teams that used the Spread offense[edit]

Start	End	Team	Head coach	Offensive coordinator
1995	1998	Seattle Seahawks	Dennis Erickson	Bob Bratkowski
2002	2003	Washington Redskins	Steve Spurrier	Hue Jackson
2003	2004	San Francisco 49ers	Dennis Erickson	Greg Knapp and Ted Tollner
2011	—	New England Patriots	Bill Belichick	Bill O'Brien / Josh McDaniels
2013	2015	Philadelphia Eagles	Chip Kelly	Pat Shurmur
2014		Houston Texans	Bill O'Brien	George Godsey
2014	2015	Miami Dolphins	Joe Philbin	Bill Lazor
2014	2015	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Lovie Smith	Jeff Tedford
2015	—	New York Jets	Todd Bowles	Chan Gailey/John Morton
2016	2016	San Francisco 49ers	Chip Kelly	Curtis Modkins

That’s the thing though, the Air Raid masks the warts, hence why some of the guys who even had better stats than Mayfield didn’t even get drafted in some cases.  Rudolph ran Gundys system damn near perfectly. Tebow, Urbans.  Mahomes, Miller, Etc etc doesn’t really mean anything.

Anywho, the system is just part of the equation that Mayfield is trying to overcome.  And he just might.  It will be exciting to watch either way.  Just like Jackson.  He’s facing odds as well.  But both fun players to watch.

 

 

[Bruce Harper]

2 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Based on... completion percentage?  Favre and Montana had lower completion percentages in college

Not just completion percentage.  The guy had a mediocre college career in a second tier conference.  Stats obviously don't tell the whole story but they are there so we might as well look at them.  Just for kicks, let's compare some of Allen's stats to that of your favorite punching bag, Baker Mayfield.  Just as Allen's mediocre stats can't all be dismissed because he wasn't on a great team, Mayfield's great stats can't all be dismissed because he played in an "Air Raid" system.    

Yards per attempt: 

The Allen advocates often suggest that Allen's completion percentage would be as high as Mayfield's if he was dinking and dunking like Mayfield.  But the stats tell a very different story.  The "cannon-armed" Allen, who played in a "pro-style" offense had a career yards per attempt of 7.8 versus 9.8 for Mayfield.  And Mayfield's average went up each year culminating in 11.5 his senior year (as opposed to Allen who went down substantially to a pathetic 6.7 his senior year). 

These stats detract from (if not disprove) the narrative that Allen's terrible completion percentage was only caused by the fact that he was bombing the ball downfield instead of dinking and dunking the ball near the line of scrimmage like Mayfield.  One can only conclude from these numbers (combined with the completion percentage numbers) that Allen is inaccurate or has crappy touch or, more likely, both.  This has gone on over his full college career and is unlikely to have been "fixed" in a several week pre-draft press tour.

Yards.

You will tell me that this does not matter either but the comparison is not even close.  Mayfield's numbers are all-world and almost triple what Allen's are.   Allen's are pedestrian at best.  I will give you that much of this is system-based but, in fairness, if Allen is as good as you seem to think he is he should have picked apart his lesser competition.

And while not technically a "stat," the fact that Mayfield has played so many more games than Allen also increases his chances of succeeding as a pro.

TD to INT Ratio

Once again, not even close, and as we know from their respective yards per attempt, it's not because he's throwing shorter passes.  Are you going to tell me the CBs are better in his conference?  I'd doubt it.  

Rating:

Not a particularly useful stat, but again, not even close and Mayfield continued to get better every year.  And Allen fell off significantly his senior year.  The trending downward is not a good sign and reminds me of another big-armed guy who trended downward in college and hasn't gotten on the field yet for the Jets.

Team Record:

This also isn't even close,  Mayfield never won less than 11 games at Oklahoma and won big games against big-time programs like Ohio State.  Allen's team topped out at 8 wins in a crappy conference.  And you can tell me that Allen was on a crappy team but somehow Wentz managed to lift his team to go undefeated one year in a similar conference and never lost more than 2 games against similar competition.

Allen:

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2015	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	2	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	8.5	0	0	138.1
*2016	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	14	209	373	56.0	3203	8.6	8.3	28	15	144.9
*2017	Wyoming	MWC	JR	QB	11	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	6.9	16	6	127.8
Career	Wyoming					365	649	56.2	5066	7.8	7.7	44	21	137.7

 

Mayfield:

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2013	Texas Tech	Big 12		QB	8	218	340	64.1	2315	6.8	6.3	12	9	127.7
*2015	Oklahoma	Big 12	JR	QB	13	269	395	68.1	3700	9.4	10.4	36	7	173.3
*2016	Oklahoma	Big 12	JR	QB	13	254	358	70.9	3965	11.1	12.3	40	8	196.4
*2017	Oklahoma	Big 12	SR	QB	14	285	404	70.5	4627	11.5	12.9	43	6	198.9
Career	Overall					1026	1497	68.5	14607	9.8	10.6	131	30	175.4
	Texas Tech					218	340	64.1	2315	6.8	6.3	12	9	127.7
	Oklahoma					808	1157	69.8	12292	10.6	11.9	119	21	189.4

 

Allen just isn't that good.  I just hope that you learn that while he is playing for some team other than the Jets.

[Villain The Foe]

30 minutes ago, JiF said:

That’s the thing though, the Air Raid masks the warts, hence why some of the guys who even had better stats than Mayfield didn’t even get drafted in some cases.  Rudolph ran Gundys system damn near perfectly. Tebow, Urbans.  Mahomes, Miller, Etc etc doesn’t really mean anything.

Anywho, the system is just part of the equation that Mayfield is trying to overcome.  And he just might.  It will be exciting to watch either way.  Just like Jackson.  He’s facing odds as well.  But both fun players to watch.

 

 

Some of the issues with QB's who were coming from Spread/Air Raid had the problem with learning an entirely different system, this isnt the case today as more and more coaches are simply implementing what the QB's are used to. I feel like guys are simply picking on a subset as if it's specifically the Air Raid,...no. It was that overall system that simply wasn't implemented and there were many guys that came from spread systems...not just air raid that didn't convert well. However, when you make it just about "Air Raid" of course that would be a much smaller pool of players. I could do the same thing with Pistol or Triple Option for example. That isnt how we should look at it, we should look at it from the position of "Are coaches implementing what these QB's can actually do". For many years the answer to that question was "no". Today it's much more available because some of these coaches have an understanding on both offenses such as Bill Obrien (Coached Pro Style with Spread variants to Christian Hackenberg at Penn St. yet was the OC at New England when they implemented the spread offense). Speaking of Bill O'Brien, look at what he's doing with Dashaun Watson, a spread QB. He's implementing plays that Watson understood from right out of the Clemson playbook. 

 

While folks keep talking about the "Air Raid" we currently have a transition in the league when it comes to young QB's taking over teams that played in the Air Raid (Kansas City and Los Angeles). This is the time for those QB's, the time wasn't 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago....but RIGHT NOW. The league is adopting the spread offense, coaches are getting younger and are also coming from the college ranks or simply learning and implementing what their QB ran in college. 

Geno Smith ran the Air Raid...a spread offense, yet the Jets drafted Geno Smith in 2013. The Jets weren't running a spread offense in 2013 but they were running Marty Mornhinweg's version of the "West Coast Offense". The Jets didn't run Spread until Chan Gailey but by that time Geno Smith was already punched in the face and Jets players/Fans were already under the spell that is Fitzmagic. 

Bringing in Baker Mayfield today would be different than bringing in Geno Smith in 2013. The jets run Spread offense today, we didn't in 2013. Coaches are beginning to understand that when you draft QB's in the 1st round you really cant sit them for a year or two, you have to play them immediately so coaches are beginning to implement the scheme that the quarterbacks know. Again, that's something that simply didn't happen just a few years ago. 

That has to be taken into account. 

[Philc1]

On 4/6/2018 at 11:07 AM, Villain The Foe said:

This isnt the same league. This is why when people talk about "historically" you have to figure out what the actual history is. The Spread was used for the first time in the NFL in 1995 by the Seattle Seahawks. That's less than 25 years ago. If the Jets drafted Mayfield, Mayfield would actually fit in the scheme. The Jets have implemented the Spread in their offense. Matter of fact, the Jets went "Full Spread offense" in 2015, you know, the year that the Jets Offense finally was seen in the top 10 off total offense...with a QB named Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

The Patriots run a spread defense. Folks laughed at me a couple weeks back when I said this. Their receivers (Amendola, Edelman) were receivers in Air Raid offenses back in college. The Jets have been running the Spread since 2015, though John Morton did dial back the "spread concepts" when it took over for Chan in comparison, there was still A TON of Spread concepts being ran by the Jets offense. 

The league is running spread offense. The most dominant teams are looking at their player personnel and realizing that they could take advantage of defenses by changing to Spread. I just explained to @JiF how the Patriots drafted Gronk and Aaron Hernandez then revamped their offense given their skillset. They were both drafted in 2010 and the Pats changed to spread in 2011. Go look at the impact that change had on Tom Brady. 

From 2001 to 2010 Brady had just three seasons where he threw over 4,000 yards. Also, in that same time span he had 7 seasons where he threw double digit INT's. 

From 2011-today, running the Spread offense Brady has thrown for over 4,000 yards every single season. You may look and say "not in 2016" well, he missed the first 4 games due to suspension, yet he threw for 3,500 yards in 12 games. It's safe to say that he would have found a way to throw for 500 more yards in those 4 games if not suspended. Also, his INT's drastically dropped, having thrown double digit INT's only twice since converting to the spread offense. And that makes sense given the structure of the Spread. Tom's Job is to get the ball to guys who can get yards and score. He has to do with with accuracy, but more importantly, ball placement in order to hit these guys in stride. 

This is probably why, we hear about the Patriots having great interest in Baker Mayfield. But of course, Jets fans as a whole can only like QB's after Bill Belichick confirms it. (See Jimmy G) 

The Spread is relatively new in the NFL. This "NFL is a Passing league" really started less than a decade ago, and it started because of the Spread offense. This chart at the bottom doesn't even have the Saints on it. The Saints run a Spread offense. Their offense is unstoppable. 

So when Jif talk about a guy who "perfected this system in college" and you confirm, what Im seeing is a guy who ran this system perfectly coming into a PASSING LEAGUE where the Spread is implemented more than it has ever been. 

So yes, many of these QB's coming in now are not going to have the same issues having to learn a new system in respects to not just philosophy & verbiage , but route combinations and the overall reason behind that type of offense (Pro style for example). 

Put Baker Mayfield in that NY Jets 2015 offense. You telling me he couldn't run that? We would have made the playoffs just by having him as our QB and not Fitz. This isnt just a guy who ran the spread, this is a guy who has ran it the most efficiently in college history. That's the difference. He's not some typical spread QB, based on his performance, he's the best to ever play in the Spread based on efficiency. You dont draft him and put him in a system without implementing what he's good at. The spread is gaining traction in this league, more Air Raid QB's are showing that they can be successful (Mahomes, Goff), Veteran Air Raid QB's are showing that if you implement what they are good at they can produce a highly efficient offense (Case Keenum) and an Air Raid QB just won the super bowl over another QB who put up over 500 yards passing in that game as well and that Super Bowl ended up producing the most offense of any other Super bowl before it (Nick Foles, Tom Brady). 

9 QB's have thrown for 5,000 yards in a season or more, 5 came from a sub 6'0 QB in Brees who runs a spread offense and 1 is Tom Brady who won it in 2011...the year the Pats changed to a spread offense. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley led the Rams to the #1 offense in the league last year. A QB who essentially ran an Air Raid offense in College. Todd Gurley was an MVP candidate not solely because of his 1,300 yards rushing and 13 TD's, but his 800  yards receiving, 6 TD's and averaging 12 yards per catch out of the backfield. That's all based on spread concepts. 

Like I said weeks ago when these conversations were really getting started, in a few years folks talking about "Pro Style offenses" will seem like Dinosaurs. The league is moving more an more into Spread concepts, and it's beginning with playing rookie QB's, playing them more in shotgun in order to see more of the defense, and "spreading" the defense out in order to get a better idea of what the defense is doing. How the safeties are aligned as well as having a clearer view of who the Mike is. 

NFL teams that used the Spread offense[edit]

Start	End	Team	Head coach	Offensive coordinator
1995	1998	Seattle Seahawks	Dennis Erickson	Bob Bratkowski
2002	2003	Washington Redskins	Steve Spurrier	Hue Jackson
2003	2004	San Francisco 49ers	Dennis Erickson	Greg Knapp and Ted Tollner
2011	—	New England Patriots	Bill Belichick	Bill O'Brien / Josh McDaniels
2013	2015	Philadelphia Eagles	Chip Kelly	Pat Shurmur
2014		Houston Texans	Bill O'Brien	George Godsey
2014	2015	Miami Dolphins	Joe Philbin	Bill Lazor
2014	2015	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Lovie Smith	Jeff Tedford
2015	—	New York Jets	Todd Bowles	Chan Gailey/John Morton
2016	2016	San Francisco 49ers	Chip Kelly	Curtis Modkins

That’s ALOT of hot air to try to prove that pro style offense is now somehow irrelevant in the nfl

[Philc1]

On 4/6/2018 at 11:53 AM, Villain The Foe said:

Some of the issues with QB's who were coming from Spread/Air Raid had the problem with learning an entirely different system, this isnt the case today as more and more coaches are simply implementing what the QB's are used to. I feel like guys are simply picking on a subset as if it's specifically the Air Raid,...no. It was that overall system that simply wasn't implemented and there were many guys that came from spread systems...not just air raid that didn't convert well. However, when you make it just about "Air Raid" of course that would be a much smaller pool of players. I could do the same thing with Pistol or Triple Option for example. That isnt how we should look at it, we should look at it from the position of "Are coaches implementing what these QB's can actually do". For many years the answer to that question was "no". Today it's much more available because some of these coaches have an understanding on both offenses such as Bill Obrien (Coached Pro Style with Spread variants to Christian Hackenberg at Penn St. yet was the OC at New England when they implemented the spread offense). Speaking of Bill O'Brien, look at what he's doing with Dashaun Watson, a spread QB. He's implementing plays that Watson understood from right out of the Clemson playbook. 

 

While folks keep talking about the "Air Raid" we currently have a transition in the league when it comes to young QB's taking over teams that played in the Air Raid (Kansas City and Los Angeles). This is the time for those QB's, the time wasn't 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago....but RIGHT NOW. The league is adopting the spread offense, coaches are getting younger and are also coming from the college ranks or simply learning and implementing what their QB ran in college. 

Geno Smith ran the Air Raid...a spread offense, yet the Jets drafted Geno Smith in 2013. The Jets weren't running a spread offense in 2013 but they were running Marty Mornhinweg's version of the "West Coast Offense". The Jets didn't run Spread until Chan Gailey but by that time Geno Smith was already punched in the face and Jets players/Fans were already under the spell that is Fitzmagic. 

Bringing in Baker Mayfield today would be different than bringing in Geno Smith in 2013. The jets run Spread offense today, we didn't in 2013. Coaches are beginning to understand that when you draft QB's in the 1st round you really cant sit them for a year or two, you have to play them immediately so coaches are beginning to implement the scheme that the quarterbacks know. Again, that's something that simply didn't happen just a few years ago. 

That has to be taken into account. 

Skip Bayless asks Shannon Sharpe to compare Watson and Mayfield.  Sharpe says he’d take Watson and it isn’t even close

 

 

Most disturbing thing is Bayless who is a Sooners and Mayfield mega fan even has serious doubts about mayfield keeping his nose clean off the field in the nfl

[T0mShane]

Hi. The Patriots run Urban Meyer’s spread except they eliminate the part where the QB runs. The Eagles and Pats just stormed through the playoffs running variations on the spread, and the Jags have kept Bortles from being an outright bust by letting him play with spread concepts. Goff, Mariota, and DeShaun Watson are all excelling in the league by spreading people out and making simple-boy reads after coming out of funky college systems. If your offensive coordinator can’t find a system that will accommodate a prospect like Mayfield, then your offensive coordinator should retire yesterday.

[T0mShane]

9 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Skip Bayless asks Shannon Sharpe to compare Watson and Mayfield.  Sharpe says he’d take Watson and it isn’t even close

 

Can’t think of two people whose opinions are less valuable than Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless. Maybe Pac.

[Villain The Foe]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Can’t think of two people whose opinions are less valuable than Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless. Maybe Pac.

Once i seen that i just shook my head and moved on. 

[Larz]

The pats *are going to put Mayfield in the slot 

[Zerovoltz]

Pat Mahomes.  If you aren't a believer yet, you will be by about week 4 this year.  Also, if I were a Jets fan or front office guy, etc.  Mayfield would be my pick.

I won't rehash the stats again, that's been done plenty in this thread...but what I would like to emphasize is that Mayfield has taken a TON of reps in college, and progressed every year.  He can start sooner (see what I did there) rather than later, if not day one. 

I can't say I have solid opinions about Darnold or Rosen, but Allen is someone I would run far, far away from.   The worst thing I have read anywhere (not nescesarily here) is that he is the next Big Ben.  No.  He isn't.  Ben also improved throughout his college career and finished with a 68% completion pct.  Allen is going to prove to be another big arm that isn't a good NFL QB because he isn't accurate.  

[Patriot Killa]

Phil..I watch tons of Mississippi St and Ole Miss games. 

I am FROM the state of Mississippi lol. Dak wasn’t just under center. I just want to make that perfectly clear. 

Dak.Was.Not.Just.Under.Center.Like.You.Think.

[Philc1]

On 4/6/2018 at 8:25 AM, Sonny Werblin said:

It's not a disagreement, you lack actual knowledge regarding a QBs role and responsibilities in an Air Raid offense. You are literally arguing that 2+2=15 when you contend that a high percentage of the plays are scripted. It is s fact that they are not. An Air Raid QB is required to read coverage keys and to audible. It is one of the reasons why the offense is effective. 

I guess you can say we "disagree" but it's just like saying that I disagree with Flat Earthers. 

Cool so anyone who doesn’t think Mayfield is a future NFL HOFer is now a flat earther

[Philc1]

20 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Can’t think of two people whose opinions are less valuable than Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless. Maybe Pac.

Bayless is an idiot but the fact that even he is worried about Mayfield’s off field nonsense and attitude is a red flag when he’s the Captain of the Mayfield fan club

 

Sharpe is the second or third best tight end in the history of the sport who played with John Elway I value his opinion.  Sorry

[Philc1]

20 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Hi. The Patriots run Urban Meyer’s spread except they eliminate the part where the QB runs. The Eagles and Pats just stormed through the playoffs running variations on the spread, and the Jags have kept Bortles from being an outright bust by letting him play with spread concepts. Goff, Mariota, and DeShaun Watson are all excelling in the league by spreading people out and making simple-boy reads after coming out of funky college systems. If your offensive coordinator can’t find a system that will accommodate a prospect like Mayfield, then your offensive coordinator should retire yesterday.

We run WCO that’s about as much of an exact opposite of air raid as it gets