A Disturbing Draft Trend

[Agoldstein54]

2015 NFL Draft: 2 OTS taken on or before pick 11 (both of which now play guard)

2016 NFL Draft: 2 OTS taken on or before pick 11 (one plays left tackle, one right)

2017 NFL Draft: 0 OTS taken on or before pick 11

2018 NFL Draft: 1 OT taken on or before pick 11 (plays right tackle)

2019 NFL Draft: 1 OT taken on or before pick 11 

 

Heres the point. Coming into the 2020 nfl draft, all of a sudden there are supposedly 4 or 5 tackle worthy of being taken on or by the 11th pick. I don't buy that each one of these 4 or 5 guys would be a good fit for the team, and we may be stuck with the worst of the lot. How can we lock in on an offensive tackle at all costs if he might not be worth the pick. 

[section314]

Every year there is a position, or multiple positions, that are rated highly. Last year was edge.Nuff said about that.?Obviously, you can never be sure, you just have to trust your judgement and that of the scouts.And since Wr is a huge need, and this WR class is maybe better than the OT’s, I highly doubt that we are focused in on an OT. But, I venture to say it will be one or the other.

[thshadow]

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by a bad "trend".  Do you mean that tackles coming out of college are getting worse and worse?  Or that teams are starting to devalue the position?

[RobR]

27 minutes ago, Agoldstein54 said:

2015 NFL Draft: 2 OTS taken on or before pick 11 (both of which now play guard)

2016 NFL Draft: 2 OTS taken on or before pick 11 (one plays left tackle, one right)

2017 NFL Draft: 0 OTS taken on or before pick 11

2018 NFL Draft: 1 OT taken on or before pick 11 (plays right tackle)

2019 NFL Draft: 1 OT taken on or before pick 11 

 

Heres the point. Coming into the 2020 nfl draft, all of a sudden there are supposedly 4 or 5 tackle worthy of being taken on or by the 11th pick. I don't buy that each one of these 4 or 5 guys would be a good fit for the team, and we may be stuck with the worst of the lot. How can we lock in on an offensive tackle at all costs if he might not be worth the pick. 

It's because this is the best OT draft that I can ever remember. In a normal year it's hard to find even a couple of them but this year is completely loaded.

[Agoldstein54]

the trend is the typical amount of players being taken in that range versus the estimate of players being drafted in that range this year. Its just not equivalent even if this is  a "OT heavy year" 

[kdels62]

4 QBs in the top 10 doesn’t happen every year. Also there’s a difference between a trend and a norm. Also there are 4 top 10 caliber tackles in this draft. It’s just true.

[thshadow]

31 minutes ago, Agoldstein54 said:

the trend is the typical amount of players being taken in that range versus the estimate of players being drafted in that range this year. Its just not equivalent even if this is  a "OT heavy year" 

I don't think "trend" means what you think it does.

I think what you're saying is there can't be 4 top-11 OTs this year, because there hasn't been that many since (assuming I counted correctly) 2013.  That doesn't seem to be a particularly compelling argument.  Take WR for example.  Over the past 5 years, the number drafted in the top-10 are 2 / 0 / 3 / 0 / 0.  That just shows that some years are good for WRs, and some are bad.

Though I do think that we as Jets fans tend to project a bit, and possibly overestimate the number of OTs that will be taken before us.  Even if it's a fantastic class.  In my experience, players that rise after the season ends are those with great measurables / look good at the combine (and QBs).  That's not typically OTs.  It seems likely that there will be some surprise players rising into the top 10.

[Lith]

1 hour ago, Agoldstein54 said:

Heres the point. Coming into the 2020 nfl draft, all of a sudden there are supposedly 4 or 5 tackle worthy of being taken on or by the 11th pick. I don't buy that each one of these 4 or 5 guys would be a good fit for the team, and we may be stuck with the worst of the lot. How can we lock in on an offensive tackle at all costs if he might not be worth the pick. 

This is the point that I agree with.  We can't afford to go into the draft knowing that we need to find a starting OT in round 1.  I would like to see us bring back Beachum on a 1 or 2 year deal (or another serviceable veteran OT with starting experience).  Would be great if the draft breaks right for us and a guy JD thinks can protect Sam's blindside for the next decade is on the board at 11.  But if he is not, we can't put ourselves in a position to reach for best available OT at 11.

[jetstream23]

On 2/12/2020 at 1:27 PM, Agoldstein54 said:

2015 NFL Draft: 2 OTS taken on or before pick 11 (both of which now play guard)

2016 NFL Draft: 2 OTS taken on or before pick 11 (one plays left tackle, one right)

2017 NFL Draft: 0 OTS taken on or before pick 11

2018 NFL Draft: 1 OT taken on or before pick 11 (plays right tackle)

2019 NFL Draft: 1 OT taken on or before pick 11 

 

Heres the point. Coming into the 2020 nfl draft, all of a sudden there are supposedly 4 or 5 tackle worthy of being taken on or by the 11th pick. I don't buy that each one of these 4 or 5 guys would be a good fit for the team, and we may be stuck with the worst of the lot. How can we lock in on an offensive tackle at all costs if he might not be worth the pick. 

You should buy it because it's fairly true.  Perhaps not the Top 11 but I'd say there are definitely 4 Offensive Tackles who are worthy of Top 15 picks.  I'm certainly no expert but pick 4 out of Wills, Wirfs, Thomas, Josh Jones, Becton....they should probably all be in that area Top 15 or maybe 20.  There's simply been a severe drought of talent at the top of the Draft for a few years as you showed above.  But we're now seeing some "reversion to the mean" as they say in statistics and OTs are coming back around again.  It's like WR....there were a grand total of TWO wide receivers taken in last year's 1st round.....and the first guy didn't go until 25th!!  This year I think there will be AT LEAST 5 WRs taken in Round 1 and probably another 4-5 in Round 2.

The Jets need to do well enough in FA that they can take what the Draft gives them this April.  What I mean is that they can't just sit there and say the plan is simply to take the best available OT at #11.  The Jets have needs up and down the roster....with glaring holes at OLine (and not just OT), WR, CB and Edge Rusher.  They also need a RB of the future and I've even floated the idea of taking a Kicker in Round 7 to put that issue to bed.  The bottom line is that there will be a player available at #11 who can help the Jets...it might be a WR and not an OT at that point, but they can come back in Round 2 (or even trade up a little) if they want a 2nd/3rd Tier OT like Austin Jackson, Matthew Peart, Prince Wanogho, etc.  There will even be guys in Rounds 3 and 4 who could be good picks.

Everyone gets hung up on having to use the #11 pick for an OT because their frame of reference is that the Jets used #5 to get D'Brick.  Don't forget that the Jets had a Left Tackle for about 7 or 8 years in the late 90's and early 00's named Jason Fabini who was a 4th round pick.

Draft: New York Jets in the 4th round (111th overall) of the 1998 NFL Draft.

[Barry McCockinner]

[Lith]

To me, the most disturbing draft trend over the past decade has been the tendency to select lesser players while leaving better players on the board for our opponents to take. 

That is the trend JD needs to reverse.

[jetstream23]

13 minutes ago, Lith said:

To me, the most disturbing draft trend over the past decade has been the tendency to select lesser players while leaving better players on the board for our opponents to take. 

That is the trend JD needs to reverse.

Agreed.  It always takes a few years to assess accurately but I'll play Devil's Advocate for Macc for a second.  While Polite was a complete swing and miss of the same magnitude that Hackenberg was, we've seen a few questionable picks make significant turns for the better or perform on the field at higher levels than most of us thought.  Fatukasi and Nathan Shepherd from last year, and Blake Cashman and Bless Austin from the past season could all end up becoming solid rotational players, if not starters.  Many people here were disappointed with those picks but Macc may have delivered on them.  Again, those types of guys are sprinkled around guys like Polite, Hackenberg, Ardarius Stewart, and others but it would be great if at least some of these guys worked out.

Macc's more costly mistakes are guys like Darron Lee and, to a lesser extent, Leo Williams simply because of the opportunity costs associated with leaving 200+ other players on the Board to take those guys.  But I'll also point out that the player many Jets fans wanted, if not Leo in 2015, was Vic Beasley who will not see another contract with the Falcons and who has not turned out to be a much better player than Leo.

Macc's biggest problem, which we're seeing firsthand right now, has been the blatant neglect of the offense outside of Sam Darnold and Chris Herndon.  While he spent mid/late round picks on Chuma Edoga, Shell, Jordan Leggett, Stewart and Chad Hansen....none of those guys have proven to be long term starters.  Shell is probably the best of them so far and the Jets would like to upgrade him.  Macc's use of FA/trades on offense with Brandon Marshall, Beachum, Kelechi Osemele, etc. kicked the can down the road....and now we're at the end of that road.

[Lith]

2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Agreed.  It always takes a few years to assess accurately but I'll play Devil's Advocate for Macc for a second.  While Polite was a complete swing and miss of the same magnitude that Hackenberg was, we've seen a few questionable picks make significant turns for the better or perform on the field at higher levels than most of us thought.  Fatukasi and Nathan Shepherd from last year, and Blake Cashman and Bless Austin from the past season could all end up becoming solid rotational players, if not starters.  Many people here were disappointed with those picks but Macc may have delivered on them.  Again, those types of guys are sprinkled around guys like Polite, Hackenberg, Ardarius Stewart, and others but it would be great if at least some of these guys worked out.

Macc's more costly mistakes are guys like Darron Lee and, to a lesser extent, Leo Williams simply because of the opportunity costs associated with leaving 200+ other players on the Board to take those guys.  But I'll also point out that the player many Jets fans wanted, if not Leo in 2015, was Vic Beasley who will not see another contract with the Falcons and who has not turned out to be a much better player than Leo.

Macc's biggest problem, which we're seeing firsthand right now, has been the blatant neglect of the offense outside of Sam Darnold and Chris Herndon.  While he spent mid/late round picks on Chuma Edoga, Shell, Jordan Leggett, Stewart and Chad Hansen....none of those guys have proven to be long term starters.  Shell is probably the best of them so far and the Jets would like to upgrade him.  Macc's use of FA/trades on offense with Brandon Marshall, Beachum, Kelechi Osemele, etc. kicked the can down the road....and now we're at the end of that road.

You are being more charitable towards Macc than I am willing to be.  Any NFL GM is going to hit on a few picks.  Just like any NFL GM is going to whiff on a few.  Don't want to beat a dead horse, but Macc's hit-whiff ratio was poor.  And he didn't seem to have a plan for building a team.  Anyway, enough about Macc, that subject has been beaten to death around here.

And for the record, I did not want eitehr Leo or Beasley in that draft.  The guy I wanted was Kevin White who turned out to be worse than either of them.  Good thing I don't make a living as an NFL talent evaluator.

[#27TheDominator]

34 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Agreed.  It always takes a few years to assess accurately but I'll play Devil's Advocate for Macc for a second.  While Polite was a complete swing and miss of the same magnitude that Hackenberg was, we've seen a few questionable picks make significant turns for the better or perform on the field at higher levels than most of us thought.  Fatukasi and Nathan Shepherd from last year, and Blake Cashman and Bless Austin from the past season could all end up becoming solid rotational players, if not starters.  Many people here were disappointed with those picks but Macc may have delivered on them.

Cashman, Austin and Herndon dropped to where the Jets took them because of injuries.  You can't give Maccagnan a pass now because they were good when not hurt.  They have all spent significant portions of their Jets careers on the training table.  Jeremy Clark was in the same boat and amounted to nothing. 

[Jetster]

I agree with the OP, we're picking at #11, everyone is saying there are 4 guys worthy at LT, I'm sorry, I'm skeptical. 

FOUR GUYS, that's like saying there were 4 QBs in the 2018 draft. Let's hope we don't end up with the Josh Rosen of LTs this year. 

Remember Eric Flowers was the 9th overall pick by the Giants in 2015. NINTH, we pick ELEVENTH. JD can not miss on our 1st round pick. Focusing in on a LT only is a huge mistake in my opinion. Especially picking at 11. The last time there were supposedly Pro Bowl type LTs in the draft, Orlando Pace & Walter Jones went top 3, anyone remember any other LTs drafted at 4-11 that year? 

The only other guys I remember recently as can't miss were Joe Thomas & Quinten Nelson (Guard). If JD has tunnel vision for a LT & reaches while Ceedee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy are staring at us it could be another year lost. 

JD is in an unenviable position at 11 with the holes on this team & past track record in the draft. If he's to be the next coming & the guy to turn around this football team, he needs to pick the best OFFENSIVE player available at 11 regardless of position, and he CAN'T MISS.

[Augustiniak]

56 minutes ago, Jetster said:

I agree with the OP, we're picking at #11, everyone is saying there are 4 guys worthy at LT, I'm sorry, I'm skeptical. 

FOUR GUYS, that's like saying there were 4 QBs in the 2018 draft. Let's hope we don't end up with the Josh Rosen of LTs this year. 

Remember Eric Flowers was the 9th overall pick by the Giants in 2015. NINTH, we pick ELEVENTH. JD can not miss on our 1st round pick. Focusing in on a LT only is a huge mistake in my opinion. Especially picking at 11. The last time there were supposedly Pro Bowl type LTs in the draft, Orlando Pace & Walter Jones went top 3, anyone remember any other LTs drafted at 4-11 that year? 

The only other guys I remember recently as can't miss were Joe Thomas & Quinten Nelson (Guard). If JD has tunnel vision for a LT & reaches while Ceedee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy are staring at us it could be another year lost. 

JD is in an unenviable position at 11 with the holes on this team & past track record in the draft. If he's to be the next coming & the guy to turn around this football team, he needs to pick the best OFFENSIVE player available at 11 regardless of position, and he CAN'T MISS.

Well if you say only LT, then yeah, probably not 4, but if you widen it to say 4 tackles, there are probably at least 4 starting tackles in this draft and at least 1 will fall to 11.  

I also disagree that he’s in an unenviable position.  He made a great trade with Leo to get an extra 3rd rounder and the draft is strong in OL and wr and decent in RB, and those are 3 huge positions of need.  

For the first time I’m a bit more excited than scared of what our gm will do in the draft.  I’m not typing here worrying they’ll take a defensive player at 11.  I’m not worried they’ll ignore wr until late 3rd round.  That said, it’s entirely possible that douglas swings and misses in FA with OL and they need to trade back in the first round to create more picks to fill more immediate needs.

[Jetster]

37 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Well if you say only LT, then yeah, probably not 4, but if you widen it to say 4 tackles, there are probably at least 4 starting tackles in this draft and at least 1 will fall to 11.  

I also disagree that he’s in an unenviable position.  He made a great trade with Leo to get an extra 3rd rounder and the draft is strong in OL and wr and decent in RB, and those are 3 huge positions of need.  

For the first time I’m a bit more excited than scared of what our gm will do in the draft.  I’m not typing here worrying they’ll take a defensive player at 11.  I’m not worried they’ll ignore wr until late 3rd round.  That said, it’s entirely possible that douglas swings and misses in FA with OL and they need to trade back in the first round to create more picks to fill more immediate needs.

If JD lands Conklin the RT position is DONE, so unless it's a sure as sh*t LT at 11, he's trading back or taking one of those WRs if they are there. 

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, Jetster said:

If JD lands Conklin the RT position is DONE, so unless it's a sure as sh*t LT at 11, he's trading back or taking one of those WRs if they are there. 

This is the one FA transaction that could change the jets draft.  If they somehow land Conklin, they can take a wr in the first, possibly.  But assuming they do not get him, i highly doubt douglas will risk not getting his preferred OT by trading back if, say, Wirfs is there and they can solidify the problematic RT spot that has blown up the run and passing game.  The time to trade back in round 1 would be if they have Conklin and can get an extra 2nd.

[Jetster]

7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

This is the one FA transaction that could change the jets draft.  If they somehow land Conklin, they can take a wr in the first, possibly.  But assuming they do not get him, i highly doubt douglas will risk not getting his preferred OT by trading back if, say, Wirfs is there and they can solidify the problematic RT spot that has blown up the run and passing game.  The time to trade back in round 1 would be if they have Conklin and can get an extra 2nd.

That would be the perfect scenario. Having two #2s, & two #3s? I just have this strange feeling that the Jets at #11 & right outside the top 10 is a target for teams looking for a QB that drops (Herbert?). Obviously JD would have to assess his draft board based on how far back. If it's a few picks, might be hard to ignore. That's what I'm hoping for if his LT prospects are gone. We need 2 WRs & a backup RB to take over for Bell in 2021. 

We need offense to take on the road this year with our tough schedule. Outscore a few teams in these road games. Nothing like a bunch of TDs to get opposing fans sitting in their hands & drinking and eating. 

[Augustiniak]

11 minutes ago, Jetster said:

That would be the perfect scenario. Having two #2s, & two #3s? I just have this strange feeling that the Jets at #11 & right outside the top 10 is a target for teams looking for a QB that drops (Herbert?). Obviously JD would have to assess his draft board based on how far back. If it's a few picks, might be hard to ignore. That's what I'm hoping for if his LT prospects are gone. We need 2 WRs & a backup RB to take over for Bell in 2021. 

We need offense to take on the road this year with our tough schedule. Outscore a few teams in these road games. Nothing like a bunch of TDs to get opposing fans sitting in their hands & drinking and eating. 

This is a draft where if you want to trade back you can probably find takers, since teams may want Jeudy, lamb or a pass rusher at 11.  But I think the jets won’t land Conklin and there will be a tackle at 11 and that will be that.  Douglas shouldn’t get cute or risk it at 11.

[Jetster]

56 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

This is a draft where if you want to trade back you can probably find takers, since teams may want Jeudy, lamb or a pass rusher at 11.  But I think the jets won’t land Conklin and there will be a tackle at 11 and that will be that.  Douglas shouldn’t get cute or risk it at 11.

We'll see but every team picking in front of us needs Oline help except for the QB needy teams. Redskins, Lions, Giants, Chargers, Panthers, Cardinals, Jaguars, Browns could all use Oline help. 

The NY Jets aren't the only team figuring out that LTs don't hit the market until their mid freaking 30s like Whitworth was. It's literally 1 of the hardest positions to fill. Finding pass rushers is easier if you want to pay the price, guys like Clowney, Ngokoue, the Chiefs got Chris Jones last year. So based on that my feeling is we'll be very lucky if the LT they have on their board is there, I'm thinking it's not going to happen & there are always surprises in the drafts top 10. We'll see. I keep seeing Wirfs at 11? From what I gather him, Thomas & Wills are top 3 so what do you do if they are all gone? 

THIS WAS YEAR TO HAVE THE 3rd PICK IN THE DRAFT!

[kdels62]

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

I agree with the OP, we're picking at #11, everyone is saying there are 4 guys worthy at LT, I'm sorry, I'm skeptical. 

FOUR GUYS, that's like saying there were 4 QBs in the 2018 draft. Let's hope we don't end up with the Josh Rosen of LTs this year. 

Remember Eric Flowers was the 9th overall pick by the Giants in 2015. NINTH, we pick ELEVENTH. JD can not miss on our 1st round pick. Focusing in on a LT only is a huge mistake in my opinion. Especially picking at 11. The last time there were supposedly Pro Bowl type LTs in the draft, Orlando Pace & Walter Jones went top 3, anyone remember any other LTs drafted at 4-11 that year? 

The only other guys I remember recently as can't miss were Joe Thomas & Quinten Nelson (Guard). If JD has tunnel vision for a LT & reaches while Ceedee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy are staring at us it could be another year lost. 

JD is in an unenviable position at 11 with the holes on this team & past track record in the draft. If he's to be the next coming & the guy to turn around this football team, he needs to pick the best OFFENSIVE player available at 11 regardless of position, and he CAN'T MISS.

Relax. There are 5 legitimate first round/ possibly top 20 player in this draft tackles. It’s almost unprecedented but its also true. The top 4 in particular are legit top 10 type guys in any draft and all of them would’ve been picked over Jonah Williams last year.

[jetstream23]

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Relax. There are 5 legitimate first round/ possibly top 20 player in this draft tackles. It’s almost unprecedented but its also true. The top 4 in particular are legit top 10 type guys in any draft and all of them would’ve been picked over Jonah Williams last year.

That's a great point and I think it's absolutely true.  In terms of grading prospects (and I'm no expert) I get the sense that the Scouting community consensus would have Wills, Thomas, and Wirfs all solidly ahead of Jonah Williams.  I also think there's a 50% chance they'd have Becton and Josh Jones ahead of him.

The Jets are EXTREMELY fortunate that the highest quality and deepest groups of prospects in this year's Draft just so happen to line up with their biggest needs....OLine, WR and possibly even QB.

It is there for the taking!!!  We need Joe Douglas to make the right selections at the right time.  The first 3 rounds (4 picks) of the 2020 Draft will largely determine the Jets success over the next 3-5 years, and it's crucial that we hit on at least 3 of the 4 guys because Darnold will be coming up for a contract sooner rather than later.  He's already heading into Year 3 of the Jets 5-year controllability.

 

[Augustiniak]

31 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

That's a great point and I think it's absolutely true.  In terms of grading prospects (and I'm no expert) I get the sense that the Scouting community consensus would have Wills, Thomas, and Wirfs all solidly ahead of Jonah Williams.  I also think there's a 50% chance they'd have Becton and Josh Jones ahead of him.

The Jets are EXTREMELY fortunate that the highest quality and deepest groups of prospects in this year's Draft just so happen to line up with their biggest needs....OLine, WR and possibly even QB.

It is there for the taking!!!  We need Joe Douglas to make the right selections at the right time.  The first 3 rounds (4 picks) of the 2020 Draft will largely determine the Jets success over the next 3-5 years, and it's crucial that we hit on at least 3 of the 4 guys because Darnold will be coming up for a contract sooner rather than later.  He's already heading into Year 3 of the Jets 5-year controllability.

 

And that we hopefully have a gm who will draft them.  The offense could look very different by the end of day 2 of the draft.

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

On 2/12/2020 at 3:27 PM, Agoldstein54 said:

2015 NFL Draft: 2 OTS taken on or before pick 11 (both of which now play guard)

2016 NFL Draft: 2 OTS taken on or before pick 11 (one plays left tackle, one right)

2017 NFL Draft: 0 OTS taken on or before pick 11

2018 NFL Draft: 1 OT taken on or before pick 11 (plays right tackle)

2019 NFL Draft: 1 OT taken on or before pick 11 

 

Heres the point. Coming into the 2020 nfl draft, all of a sudden there are supposedly 4 or 5 tackle worthy of being taken on or by the 11th pick. I don't buy that each one of these 4 or 5 guys would be a good fit for the team, and we may be stuck with the worst of the lot. How can we lock in on an offensive tackle at all costs if he might not be worth the pick. 

Because all our lineman SUCK !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Someone has to protect SAM SAM DA MAN .