Carl Lawson: Top 5 in "First Pressures" last year

[JohnnyLV]

2 hours ago, MR.GANGGREEN28 said:

QB pressures aren't real production? If he is rushing the throw and it results in an incomplete pass or even an interception in what world is that not considered real production? 

 

 

In Wafish's defense. I have stats that suggest that "pressure" does not materially affect QB efficiency.  

[MR.GANGGREEN28]

32 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

In Wafish's defense. I have stats that suggest that "pressure" does not materially affect QB efficiency.  

To be fair I’m sure we’ll all be watching Lawson closely this year and we’ll just have to use the eye test to make our judgements because I haven’t watched nearly enough footage to make a full judgement of him and mostly all I have to rely on are these stats thrown around.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Do teams usually let "good pass rushers" in the top half of the NFL (14th paid out of what, 64 starting D-End/OLB rusher types) walk? 

Other than us, of course, lol.

Generally no unless they're having cap issues or if they are under-valuing the player they let go.  That does not mean Lawson can't be a very good pass rusher here.  In Cincy's case, I think its the latter; they under-valued him.

Since Saleh's scheme depends on quality pass rushers, I am willing to defer to him on this one and see what he can do with the guy.  We paid for potential and I think Saleh and Douglas both see a lot out of him.

[Warfish]

46 minutes ago, MR.GANGGREEN28 said:

To be fair I’m sure we’ll all be watching Lawson closely this year and we’ll just have to use the eye test to make our judgements because I haven’t watched nearly enough footage to make a full judgement of him and mostly all I have to rely on are these stats thrown around.

Oh aye, agreed 100%.  My issue here is far more about that "stat" of "pressures" than it is specific to this player or his potential future.  

By all accounts Lawson is a good young player with a solid future potential, and he is a clear upgrade over what we've had (which was mostly nothing!)

[#27TheDominator]

I think the key to these analytics is using them properly.  I'm not sure exactly what constitutes a "first pressure" but it sounds like he might be the guy you want to make the QB step up into the middle pressure that Q will hopefully be bringing up the middle. 

If I had to guess, I think they look at these stats when trying to set up a certain kind of pressure.  I don't expect "the secondary's coverage giving them enough time to get sacks."   I think they will use the pressure to force early throws and try to have a better idea where the ball is going than the O.  Sort of like Rex did funnelling the ball toward Revis.

[BurnleyJet]

Leading the league in almost sacks. Who knows, one of our corners may step up to lead the league in almost interceptions.

[Action Zachtion]

9 hours ago, Warfish said:

Oh aye, agreed 100%.  My issue here is far more about that "stat" of "pressures" than it is specific to this player or his potential future.  

By all accounts Lawson is a good young player with a solid future potential, and he is a clear upgrade over what we've had (which was mostly nothing!)

If the pressure comes from the outside and someone is blowing up the top of the pocket 1+1=6.  

Those pressures with this defensive front might lead to more stats. 

The other thing is that with this young secondary, you can stick a fork in this season without pressure.  

[flgreen]

On 7/20/2021 at 10:42 PM, Doggin94it said:

Our NASCAR package is going to be absolutely sick. On obvious passing downs, going Lawson/Q/Rankins at DE/DT/DT is very very scary. Need someone to step up on the other edge - most likely Huff or Franklin-Meyers

 

 

[Defense Wins Championships]

On 7/21/2021 at 12:25 PM, MR.GANGGREEN28 said:

QB pressures aren't real production? If he is rushing the throw and it results in an incomplete pass or even an interception in what world is that not considered real production? 

Previous 3 years (2018-2019-2020) combined.

Carl Lawson = 

11.5 sacks. 14 blitzes. 24 QB hurries. 45 QB knockdowns. 62 QB hits. 81 QB pressures and 11 tackles for loss (6 missed tackles).

Khalil Mack = 

30.0 sacks. 111 blitzes. 72 QB hurries,  18 QB knockdowns. 44 QB hits. 124 QB pressures and 29 tackles for loss (16 missed tackles).

And keep in mind I'm comparing Lawson to no slouch here but rather instead to probably the most dominant outside edge pass rusher that the game has had to offer throughout the previous 3 years in Mack. 

This dude (Lawson) is a pass rushing animal.

And we can also expect his QB sacks, QB hurries, QB pressures, QB hits, QB knockdowns and tackles for loss to all sky rocket due to now playing alongside of an absolute animal on the D-Line in Quinnen Williams. 

Pass rushing is more than just "sacks" and no one does a better job of beating up QBs with hits and knockdowns than Carl Lawson. 

And more importantly it's going to become Quinnen Williams who begins to absolutely feast up the middle interior; due to Lawson causing havoc from the edge. 

[jgb]

On 7/23/2021 at 1:58 AM, Defense Wins Championships said:

And we can also expect his QB sacks, QB hurries, QB pressures, QB hits, QB knockdowns and tackles for loss to all sky rocket due to now playing alongside of an absolute animal on the D-Line in Quinnen Williams. . 

So you’re saying Lawson wasn’t surrounded by enough weapons in Cincy?

[DoubleDown]

If Lawson, Williams, and Mosley stay healthy, this is going to be a fun defense to watch.

[MichaelScott]

I've seen a ton of tweets/posts/articles on Lawson's being among the top guys QB hits, pressures, and now "first pressures" (whatever the hell that is). 

Here is the issue/concern I have about those hits and pressures that's preventing me from getting too excited about this guy. He has never had a season where all those pressures/hits have translated to good sack numbers - Even in his contract year.When you look at the other players or "company" on the list that the OP posted, I believe every other player listed has 10+ sacks.

If you look at the attached picture - Awhile back I looked up the QB hits numbers for 2020 to find that Lawson was second only to TJ Watt. Some really good company, right? And being 2nd to Watt in anything would lead you to believe that player must be really, really good? Eh, not really. The more important stat to compare with their hits is that Watt had 10 MORE sacks than Lawson! Additionally, while being 2nd in hits, he has by far the lowest sack total of anyone in the top 10 (and within 1-2 sack of the lowest total in top 20) in QB hits. That's a big deal. When the other people on this list hit the QB, they still have the ball ? - Also, again, this was on his contract year!

I'm not trying to sh*t on Lawson and I'm not saying he is going to be bad. I really do hope that Saleh can help this kid put it together. I just feel the need to address this really important "BUT" when people use hits and pressures to talk this guy up like we signed a stud that's in the conversation of top 5 in the league. I'm just saying this was a signing of potential and we're talking about a pass rusher that hasn't been able to get sacks. We should probably keep our expectations in check. 

BTW, fwiw, the stuff that we're using to build and hype up Lawson are, literally, the same stats and situation (all pressure, NO sacks) that we used to justify shipping off Leo lmao

TBH, I'm much more excited to see what Lawson means with Quinnens production than I am for Lawsons production 

[Defense Wins Championships]

On 7/23/2021 at 10:51 PM, DoubleDown said:

If Lawson, Williams, and Mosley stay healthy, this is going to be a fun defense to watch.

And Marcus Maye too. 

I've talked a lot of crap about Marcus Maye due to his lack of INT's and passing on Dalvin Cook (as a sarcastic way to engage against all of these Jamal Adams critics who've given me a hard time)

but @ the end of the day I know he never had a chance under Gregg Williams to become a true ball hawking FS and that's because all Gregg Williams would ever do was send the house and blitz everyone while completely leaving Marcus Maye exposed in coverage (I truly hated Gregg Williams as both an outdated coach and a scumbag POS)

I'm anxious to see Marcus Maye roaming Centerfield for a defensive mastermind in Robert Saleh while playing within Robert Saleh's cover 3 zone scheme (with a 4-3 D-Line ready to cause havoc and LBs who are ready to play in coverage) while giving Marcus Maye a real opportunity to actually look good out in Centerfield as yes, a ball hawking FS. 

if all 4 of Lawson/QW/Mosley/Maye live up to potential this is a top 5 Defense with impactful players @ all 3 levels.

[CSNY]

6 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

And Marcus Maye too. 

I've talked a lot of crap about Marcus Maye due to his lack of INT's and passing on Dalvin Cook (as a sarcastic way to engage against all of these Jamal Adams critics who've given me a hard time)

but @ the end of the day I know he never had a chance under Gregg Williams to become a true ball hawking FS and that's because all Gregg Williams would ever do was send the house and blitz everyone while completely leaving Marcus Maye exposed in coverage (I truly hated Gregg Williams as both an outdated coach and a scumbag POS)

I'm anxious to see Marcus Maye roaming Centerfield for a defensive mastermind in Robert Saleh while playing within Robert Saleh's cover 3 zone scheme (with a 4-3 D-Line ready to cause havoc and LBs who are ready to play in coverage) while giving Marcus Maye a real opportunity to actually look good out in Centerfield as yes, a ball hawking FS. 

if all 4 of Lawson/QW/Mosley/Maye live up to potential this is a top 5 Defense with impactful players @ all 3 levels.

Don’t know if it will be a top 5 Defense but I agree that Maye will be better utilized as a actual free roaming safety in this d as opposed to the last two years when he was unable to play centerfield and provide help for the corners which limited his ability to make interceptions. 

[Defense Wins Championships]

On 7/24/2021 at 12:00 AM, MichaelScott said:

I've seen a ton of tweets/posts/articles on Lawson's being among the top guys QB hits, pressures, and now "first pressures" (whatever the hell that is). 

Here is the issue/concern I have about those hits and pressures that's preventing me from getting too excited about this guy. He has never had a season where all those pressures/hits have translated to good sack numbers - Even in his contract year.When you look at the other players or "company" on the list that the OP posted, I believe every other player listed has 10+ sacks.

If you look at the attached picture - Awhile back I looked up the QB hits numbers for 2020 to find that Lawson was second only to TJ Watt. Some really good company, right? And being 2nd to Watt in anything would lead you to believe that player must be really, really good? Eh, not really. The more important stat to compare with their hits is that Watt had 10 MORE sacks than Lawson! Additionally, while being 2nd in hits, he has by far the lowest sack total of anyone in the top 10 (and within 1-2 sack of the lowest total in top 20) in QB hits. That's a big deal. When the other people on this list hit the QB, they still have the ball ? - Also, again, this was on his contract year!

I'm not trying to sh*t on Lawson and I'm not saying he is going to be bad. I really do hope that Saleh can help this kid put it together. I just feel the need to address this really important "BUT" when people use hits and pressures to talk this guy up like we signed a stud that's in the conversation of top 5 in the league. I'm just saying this was a signing of potential and we're talking about a pass rusher that hasn't been able to get sacks. We should probably keep our expectations in check. 

BTW, fwiw, the stuff that we're using to build and hype up Lawson are, literally, the same stats and situation (all pressure, NO sacks) that we used to justify shipping off Leo lmao

TBH, I'm much more excited to see what Lawson means with Quinnens production than I am for Lawsons production 

There is a lot more that goes into being an elite pass rusher outside of a whooping "1.0 sacks per game" because it's all about roughing up and beating the crap out of opposing QBs and no pass rusher has been better at attacking QBs than Carl Lawson has. 

The kid is only 26 years old and throughout his first 4 years in the league he's already recorded 20 sacks, 32 QB hurries, 56 QB knockdowns, 103 QB pressures, and105 QB hits. 

And he's never once played alongside of a BEAST on his Cincinnati D-Line such as a Quinnen Williams (opposing teams can no longer double team Lawson 90% of the time which means he's really got 12-15-20 "sacks" potential).

So please don't tell us that "we should probably keep our expectations in check" when we haven't featured a pass rusher as talented as this kid since dating back to #94 of almost 20 years ago... Thnx. 

[Defense Wins Championships]

On 7/21/2021 at 1:01 PM, Defense Wins Championships said:

. Lawson will become a breath of fresh air as a pass rusher.

Previous 3 years (2018-2019-2020) combined.

Carl Lawson = 

(6 misses tackles).

11.5 sacks. 

14 blitzes. 

24 QB hurries. 

45 QB knockdowns.

62 QB hits. 

81 QB pressures.

I'll gladly take 8 fewer sacks if it means in returning I'm getting 9 more QB hurries, 27 more QB hits, 29 more QB knockdowns, 29 more QB pressures and despite 243 fewer blitzes and also 19 fewer missed tackles.

Rushing the QB isn't just about "sacks" because even 17 sacks only = 1.0 sacks per game so you're telling me people want a player who only makes 1 impact play per game? 

Rushing the QB is all about not only pressuring them but also hitting them in order to beat the living crap out of them and damn near no one beats up QBs quite like Carl Lawson does. 

Fk sack numbers because in Cincinnati he was double teamed 24/7 but now playing alongside of Quinnen Williams?

Let them double team Lawson (all they like) because it's then Quinnen Williams who's recording 20+ sacks. 

This dude is a pass rushing animal.

Quoted because my post reminds me of what Saleh said today about Carl Lawson. He explained how it's not all about sacks but rather QB disruption. Reminded me of myself as he was raving about Lawson's ability as a pass rusher. 

He starts talking about it exactly @ 3:00 in.