Daniel Jeremiah - “7 of my Top 25 prospects are Edge rushers”

[Integrity28]

Draft 2 edge in R1. 

Offense the rest of the draft.

FA fix OL, sign price-it CBS, and get a beast WR.

[doitny]

3 hours ago, Claymation said:

I disagree, as you know the Jets 4 in the top 38 with glaring needs at WR, OL, Edge, TE & secondary. You can address WR & Edge with the 10th pick and they can move up into the 1st with one of their seconds and third. If Ikem is the 4th pick, he can play RG this year with the intent to move him outside. That also doesn't account what the team addresses in free agency.

see the problem with that is this.

at 4 you could get the 3rd best Edge. at 10 you could get the best WR or at worst 2nd best. 

in the 2nd you can get the Best TE and maybe 2-3 best safety.

most mocks have 6-7 Edges and 7 WRs going in rd1. so your way will make us pick one of the last ones in that group. plus your trade into rd 1 will probably take the top 2nd rd pick that takes away the top 1 or 2 TEs. and have to wait till rd 3 for safety. 

and you could draft a OG in rd 4 that will be just as good as the guy you want at 4.

we took Brick at 4 and it cost us a SB or 2. 

we could have drafted TE Vernon Davis, CB Cromartie, QB Culter or DT Haloti Ngata. 

then took Andrew Whitworth 2nd rd or Jahri Evans 4th rd for our OL. they had more PBs than Brick. 

any one of those guys and those Tackles and were in the playoffs with Favre in 2008. and probably win a SB in 2009.

some here think Brick was a great draft pick for us, i think he was a big mistake. i like him but at 4 there are always players to take. you got the entire draft in front of you. 

next Sunday we will have the 22nd SB winner in the last 22 SBs to NOT have 3 OL drafted in the 1st rd. and they will be the 20th team out of 22 SB winners to have 1 or less OL drafted in rd 1 on their team.

i dont understand how Jet fans after all this losing, after seeing how every other team that wins does it, want to do it in a way that has never worked. 

 

 

[Integrity28]

1 minute ago, doitny said:

see the problem with that is this.

at 4 you could get the 3rd best Edge. at 10 you could get the best WR or at worst 2nd best. 

in the 2nd you can get the Best TE and maybe 2-3 best safety.

most mocks have 6-7 Edges and 7 WRs going in rd1. so your way will make us pick one of the last ones in that group. plus your trade into rd 1 will probably take the top 2nd rd pick that takes away the top 1 or 2 TEs. and have to wait till rd 3 for safety. 

and you could draft a OG in rd 4 that will be just as good as the guy you want at 4.

we took Brick at 4 and it cost us a SB or 2. 

we could have drafted TE Vernon Davis, CB Cromartie, QB Culter or DT Haloti Ngata. 

then took Andrew Whitworth 2nd rd or Jahri Evans 4th rd for our OL. they had more PBs than Brick. 

any one of those guys and those Tackles and were in the playoffs with Favre in 2008. and probably win a SB in 2009.

some here think Brick was a great draft pick for us, i think he was a big mistake. i like him but at 4 there are always players to take. you got the entire draft in front of you. 

next Sunday we will have the 22nd SB winner in the last 22 SBs to NOT have 3 OL drafted in the 1st rd. and they will be the 20th team out of 22 SB winners to have 1 or less OL drafted in rd 1 on their team.

i dont understand how Jet fans after all this losing, after seeing how every other team that wins does it, want to do it in a way that has never worked. 

 

 

It’s weird how so many folks here default to “if we had done this, then this other thing would have happened”.

Brick was a good pick. he was a good player. That is established reality. You take the good ones where you get them. Especially as a franchise known for being a bust magnet.

Favre failed to win a lot of SBs with stacked teams. To say the only reason we didn’t get one with Favre was because of Brick is ignoring data in favor of hypotheticals.

[Maxman]

21 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

And Jeremiah is pretty close with Douglas, right?

DRAFT THEM ALL!!!

[jetstream23]

11 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I would say WR, OL and TE are all bigger needs for the Jets than EDGE because of Wilson. I am not saying the Jets will not take one, though if Thibs and Hutch are gone I think OL or even Hamilton become more likely than the third EDGE

Edge, WR, OL, TE are exactly the positions I’d love to see taken with the first 4 picks if the Draft fell that way. 

[Dunnie]

18 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

Watch Jermaine Johnson go top 15

You mean this guy ?? ?

[Dunnie]

9 hours ago, doitny said:

see the problem with that is this.

at 4 you could get the 3rd best Edge. at 10 you could get the best WR or at worst 2nd best. 

in the 2nd you can get the Best TE and maybe 2-3 best safety.

most mocks have 6-7 Edges and 7 WRs going in rd1. so your way will make us pick one of the last ones in that group. plus your trade into rd 1 will probably take the top 2nd rd pick that takes away the top 1 or 2 TEs. and have to wait till rd 3 for safety. 

and you could draft a OG in rd 4 that will be just as good as the guy you want at 4.

we took Brick at 4 and it cost us a SB or 2. 

we could have drafted TE Vernon Davis, CB Cromartie, QB Culter or DT Haloti Ngata. 

then took Andrew Whitworth 2nd rd or Jahri Evans 4th rd for our OL. they had more PBs than Brick. 

any one of those guys and those Tackles and were in the playoffs with Favre in 2008. and probably win a SB in 2009.

some here think Brick was a great draft pick for us, i think he was a big mistake. i like him but at 4 there are always players to take. you got the entire draft in front of you. 

next Sunday we will have the 22nd SB winner in the last 22 SBs to NOT have 3 OL drafted in the 1st rd. and they will be the 20th team out of 22 SB winners to have 1 or less OL drafted in rd 1 on their team.

i dont understand how Jet fans after all this losing, after seeing how every other team that wins does it, want to do it in a way that has never worked. 

 

 

So you would have preferred Cutler or Cro over Brick ??? Was there sarcasm included in your post ... trying hard to discern.

Edited February 1, 2022 by Dunnie

[Claymation]

11 hours ago, doitny said:

see the problem with that is this.

at 4 you could get the 3rd best Edge. at 10 you could get the best WR or at worst 2nd best. 

in the 2nd you can get the Best TE and maybe 2-3 best safety.

most mocks have 6-7 Edges and 7 WRs going in rd1. so your way will make us pick one of the last ones in that group. plus your trade into rd 1 will probably take the top 2nd rd pick that takes away the top 1 or 2 TEs. and have to wait till rd 3 for safety. 

and you could draft a OG in rd 4 that will be just as good as the guy you want at 4.

we took Brick at 4 and it cost us a SB or 2. 

we could have drafted TE Vernon Davis, CB Cromartie, QB Culter or DT Haloti Ngata. 

then took Andrew Whitworth 2nd rd or Jahri Evans 4th rd for our OL. they had more PBs than Brick. 

any one of those guys and those Tackles and were in the playoffs with Favre in 2008. and probably win a SB in 2009.

some here think Brick was a great draft pick for us, i think he was a big mistake. i like him but at 4 there are always players to take. you got the entire draft in front of you. 

next Sunday we will have the 22nd SB winner in the last 22 SBs to NOT have 3 OL drafted in the 1st rd. and they will be the 20th team out of 22 SB winners to have 1 or less OL drafted in rd 1 on their team.

i dont understand how Jet fans after all this losing, after seeing how every other team that wins does it, want to do it in a way that has never worked. 

 

 

The difference between Karlfatis and Walker/Ojabo is minimal. And as I stated you can get back in the 1st with just a 2nd and a 3rd. That way you can address the WR and edge position with the 10th and roughly the 20th. Ikem, if he is there at 4, is arguably the best player in the draft. The drop off from the top 3 OL is much greater than the drop off from 3 to 7 at the edge position.

I would consider a draft of Ikem, Walker/Ojabo and Wilson/London a Home Run with a an early second to still address the secondary, TE or LB.

[doitny]

3 hours ago, Dunnie said:

So you would have preferred Cutler or Cro over Brick ??? Was there sarcasm included in your post ... trying hard to discern.

i would. 

Culter was better than Sanchez. and having Cro teamed with Revis from 2006 on i believe we could have won it in 2009. maybe even 2008.

as you seen from my post 2 Tackles, Whitworth (2nd) and Evans (4th) who went in the later rds went to more Pro Bowls.

point is that you can find OL later in the draft. and in this case they were better than Brick. 

the SB will have only one OL drafted in the 1st rd by their team. in fact Whitworth who is now on the Rams will be playing in it at 40 yrs old.

we were so close to a SB in 2009, 2010. Culter was not great but better than Sanchez and all we needed was a little better play from our QB and we might have a ring or 2. or having 2 shut down corners for 2009. i know we had Cro for 2010.

 

[Dunnie]

i would. 
Culter was better than Sanchez. and having Cro teamed with Revis from 2006 on i believe we could have won it in 2009. maybe even 2008.
as you seen from my post 2 Tackles, Whitworth (2nd) and Evans (4th) who went in the later rds went to more Pro Bowls.
point is that you can find OL later in the draft. and in this case they were better than Brick. 
the SB will have only one OL drafted in the 1st rd by their team. in fact Whitworth who is now on the Rams will be playing in it at 40 yrs old.
we were so close to a SB in 2009, 2010. Culter was not great but better than Sanchez and all we needed was a little better play from our QB and we might have a ring or 2. or having 2 shut down corners for 2009. i know we had Cro for 2010.
 

Yeah i guess the same can be said for virtually any position picked. There are almost always guys that wnd up being studs in later rounds that virtually no NFL scouting department have graded higher.

[doitny]

13 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

It’s weird how so many folks here default to “if we had done this, then this other thing would have happened”.

Brick was a good pick. he was a good player. That is established reality. You take the good ones where you get them. Especially as a franchise known for being a bust magnet.

Favre failed to win a lot of SBs with stacked teams. To say the only reason we didn’t get one with Favre was because of Brick is ignoring data in favor of hypotheticals.

if you look at any draft when a OL was taking as high as 4 there are always a few players that were good drafted after him. you got an entire draft behind him, how could there not be. but because some draft board says that is guy is better than that guy so this guy must be picked around here then there is wrong.

there is someone always better to pick then an OL at 4. there is nothing that guy is going to do that a guy like Fant who was a UDFA cant or didnt do.

we will never know if Favre would have won a SB in 2008. but with an upgrade we make the playoffs and who knows. 

 i think we would be much better with TE Vernon Davis for Favre and Sanchez to throw to. or getting Cro here from the start to shut down the other CB spot. or Ngata being a beast in the middle of the DL. 

in 09, 10 we were really close. we didnt need much of an upgrade to get us in the SB

what Brick did for us could have been done by a later rd pick. just like the rest of the NFL does. 

[Integrity28]

2 minutes ago, doitny said:

if you look at any draft when a OL was taking as high as 4 there are always a few players that were good drafted after him. you got an entire draft behind him, how could there not be. but because some draft board says that is guy is better than that guy so this guy must be picked around here then there is wrong.

there is someone always better to pick then an OL at 4. there is nothing that guy is going to do that a guy like Fant who was a UDFA cant or didnt do.

we will never know if Favre would have won a SB in 2008. but with an upgrade we make the playoffs and who knows. 

 i think we would be much better with TE Vernon Davis for Favre and Sanchez to throw to. or getting Cro here from the start to shut down the other CB spot. or Ngata being a beast in the middle of the DL. 

in 09, 10 we were really close. we didnt need much of an upgrade to get us in the SB

what Brick did for us could have been done by a later rd pick. just like the rest of the NFL does. 

I agree, your hypothetical argument needed more hypotheticals. 

[Sperm Edwards]

19 minutes ago, slats said:

We’ll see what happens. I think Joe Douglas has, pretty much, pigeon-holed positions to picks in the first two rounds of his first two drafts, though. I think that’s pretty obvious. There are positions he’s going to avoid. I’ll be shocked if he takes a CB in the first round, even if he trades down significantly first. 
 
One of the things I’ve liked about JD is that he seems to understand positional value. In the NFL, that’s QB-Edge-WR-OT. The only one of those positions he hasn’t hit high yet is Edge, and that’s supposed to be a strength of this draft. I’m not talking about taking a guy who might go half a round later, I’m talking about taking the guy at #4 who you really like and don’t believe will last to #10. Then at #10, the WR might be a little high again, but not outrageously so, and that’s where value and need will potentially meet. 
 
I can also argue in favor of a straight BAP type strategy, but it’s not the strategy that I believe Joe Douglas employs. I believe need and value figure heavily in his draft decisions. And another first round OL has diminished value in comparison to the much greater need at rushing the passer. 

Agree with your top 2 paragraphs, though I don't know that CB/S is out of the question at #10. I know the common thing they say is this D doesn't need a shutdown corner or a premiere safety, but that could just have been a way of quieting the wolves while they see what they can fill with late round picks before actually stepping up to the table with investments that they may not have needed in hindsight.

In terms of WR? The caveat, which I've mentioned plenty, is it depends what they do in FA. If they sign someone like Robinson in FA? I think WR is off the board in the top 10. I might pull that trigger on a WR anyway, seeing how Davis only has 1 more guaranteed season and he was such a letdown between the drops and the missed games. If not still in the top 10, then I'd still look for another in round 2. 

I love BAP strategy -- if done at the right time: after so many slots have passed - say the top 100, give or take a round, depending on the draft class depth - that it gets hard enough to pick a real contributor, never mind pigeonhole oneself into only prospects at certain positions. But at the top of the draft? You're (theoretically) talking about the best of the best in that draft class.

As far as using high picks (setting minimum ground rules in terms of positional importance, and veteran replacement costs): in I guess Moneyball-ish terms, a B+ prospect who fills a C- to F / gaping hole will yield a better team overall than drafting an A prospect at a position where we've already got a B to B+ veteran who isn't a bank-breaker. 

Once we get to round 4 especially (again, give or take depending on the draft class strength)? Then honestly there is no such thing as positional importance and go all BAP. Take a 4th OT; take a 2nd or 3rd TE; take a FB; take yet another DB. Take a QB (e.g. Cousins) even after you've already drafted one early (RG3), so long as he's the highest-ranked player on the board and not merely a roster depth-filler (or Pats-blocker like I suspect Morgan was). Even with a straight BAP list, at that point in the draft, statistically you're going to be wrong more often than right, so eliminating anybody by position in the late rounds is a fool's errand imo. Drafting for position is tough enough when you're dealing only with a draft class's best of the best.

This is a bit longer than I expected (takes me almost 500 words even to agree with someone, it seems), but you're not busy, right? 

 

[slats]

8 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

As far as using high picks (setting minimum ground rules in terms of positional importance, and veteran replacement costs): in I guess Moneyball-ish terms, a B+ prospect who fills a C- to F / gaping hole will yield a better team overall than drafting an A prospect at a position where we've already got a B to B+ veteran who isn't a bank-breaker. 

Once we get to round 4 especially (again, give or take depending on the draft class strength)? Then honestly there is no such thing as positional importance and go all BAP.

Definitely agree here. And then, the more stacked your team is, the earlier you can start going straight BAP. Jets still have a number of holes, at a couple of premium positions, and need to steer their draft accordingly. 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, slats said:

Definitely agree here. And then, the more stacked your team is, the earlier you can start going straight BAP. Jets still have a number of holes, at a couple of premium positions, and need to steer their draft accordingly. 

Your post is missing a few hundred words, but yes I agree.

[kdels62]

The gaps in talent between Hutchinson (Edge 1) and say Ebeketie (edge 7-ish) is smaller than the gap between any other position's top player and its 7th prospect.This is the draft to trade back. 

[Dunnie]

if you look at any draft when a OL was taking as high as 4 there are always a few players that were good drafted after him. you got an entire draft behind him, how could there not be. but because some draft board says that is guy is better than that guy so this guy must be picked around here then there is wrong.
there is someone always better to pick then an OL at 4. there is nothing that guy is going to do that a guy like Fant who was a UDFA cant or didnt do.
we will never know if Favre would have won a SB in 2008. but with an upgrade we make the playoffs and who knows. 
 i think we would be much better with TE Vernon Davis for Favre and Sanchez to throw to. or getting Cro here from the start to shut down the other CB spot. or Ngata being a beast in the middle of the DL. 
in 09, 10 we were really close. we didnt need much of an upgrade to get us in the SB
what Brick did for us could have been done by a later rd pick. just like the rest of the NFL does. 

.... we also would not know what life without a stud Left Tackle would have been like...

[AFJF]

On 1/31/2022 at 5:11 PM, jeremy2020 said:

I'm sure Douglas is close to his mom too, but I'm not sure he's relying on her draft advice.

I hope Douglass makes his own evaluations with his scouting staff and isn't relying on journalist's lists. 

Not to say Joe D. should consider this stuff, but Rich Cimini is a journalist.  Jeremiah is a former NFL scout who found a way to build his own thing.  There's a difference.