When "learning to win" / anti-tanking goes wrong

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

Not familiar with the dolphins tanking 

Then do some research and get back to us before you ignorantly try to argue tanking isn't a thing, then?  

https://www.sportico.com/law/analysis/2022/nfl-tanking-1234659981/

[Anthony Jet]

Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

Many people on this forum are desperate to sign Gardner Minshew as our QB1 next season!  Lol

There Jet fans, I think it’s safe to say they don’t make good choices 

[bitonti]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Trevor Lawrence can play football and Zach Wilson cannot.  He's worse than Leaf and JaMarcus. 

Pederson is far from the main reason why Lawrence made the year 2 leap, just like any coach can't be primarily responsible for every QB success story.  Otherwise why spend all that money on QBs and QB scouting across the league?  Just spend all your money on coaches.

Wilson was an atrocious pick but jd did not have to pick him. He could have taken Sewell or chase or even parsons.

You're under rating the effect of good coaches. 

But Good coaches don't want to work here because our ownership is not really committed 

We had a hall of fame coach once and he retired after one day via cocktail napkin because he did not want to work for woody 

Dysfunction like that is bigger than one player. Trevor Lawrence would be screwed as a Jet. 

People want complex problems to have easy solution unless the team gets sold to someone else there is no easy solution. 

Let alone "just lose more" 

[Anthony Jet]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Then do some research and get back to us before you ignorantly try to argue tanking isn't a thing, then?  The Dolphins were docked a 1st round pick for it.

No thanks. You answered yourself. They were fined for tanking. It’s not allowed. If we sat darnold for Morgan we would’ve been blatantly tanking. The dolphins 1x doing it don’t make it the norm You made my point 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

You're under rating the effect of good coaches. 

Maybe?  I'm just following the money here.  QBs make a lot more than coaches do for a reason.  And we all know (or should know by now, at least) that no coach can "fix" or gameplan for a dogsh*t QB.

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, Jet Life said:

I’ll be rooting for Miami. We have a chance at the 10th pick and losing out could hopefully force Woodys hand to blow this joke of an operation up 

Same.  The streak of me rooting against my own team continues another year!

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Anthony Jet said:

No thanks. You answered yourself. They were fined for tanking. It’s not allowed. If we sat darnold for Morgan we would’ve been blatantly tanking. The dolphins 1x doing it don’t make it the norm You made my point 

So you think this is the only occurrence?  It's just the only one that has come under investigation that we know about.  Come on now.  That's just naivety.  

[dbatesman]

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts were all drafted by teams who made the playoffs the year before, and all four were sitting right there for the Jets. We didn’t want them. Having Lawrence would be great, but the real issue is that the Jets are a crap franchise that drafts crap players.

[carlito1171]

I have to give Shahid Khan credit....He didn't hesitate to get Minshew benched for Glennon when he knew he was close to landing TLaw......

Only a clueless bum like Woody doesn't see the opportunity he had at 0-13 and immediately fire Gase and hire whoever on the CS would be willing to empty out the bench in the name of "Player evaluation" 

[TuscanyTile2]

9 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

Trevor Lawerence would suck with this CS.

This is way overboard.  Trevor would still be a star here.

[Anthony Jet]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So you think this is the only occurrence?  It's just the only one that has come under investigation that we know about.  Come on now.  That's just naivety.  

No. My whole point is our situation would’ve been too blatant for the jets to do it. Players don’t tank. You have to put bad players in. Not possible when we are developing 3rd pick the draft without raising red flags 

[jgb]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Trevor Lawrence : Peyton Manning

as

Ryan Leaf : Zach Wilson

 

You're wrong.  Plain and simple.  It's proven that tanking can turn a program around.  It would have for the Jets if they ended up with Lawrence.  Stone cold truth.  You lost this one, bit.  

Not calling Pedersen because Woody doesn’t want to pay what experienced successful coaches command on the open market was another mega blunder.

[extmenace]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

DISCLAIMER:  No, this is not a thread about tanking THIS year.  The difference between 8-9 and 7-10 is negligible.  We're talking REAL, season-long-over kind of tanking here.  0-17 /  vs 2-15 kind of tanking.  

 

I'd say that perhaps the most damaging aspect of the Woody Johnson era has been the policy (it would seem) to prefer 5 or 6-win seasons in a lost year over "bottoming out" for draft position purposes.  And we're paying for it with every regime. 

A reminder of the history below (note:  You might quibble over how helpful tanking would have been in any given year, and whether we would have been interested in some of these players in the first place, but in totality, its hard to argue we haven't missed out on elite draft capital/talent over the years):

 

2007

• Sitting at 3-12, the Jets won their Week 17 game against the Chiefs to finish 4-12 and end up with the # 6 pick.  A loss would have vaulted the Jets into a top-3 pick slot
• Selected:  DE Vernon Gholston
• Missed out on:  QB Matt Ryan

2014

• The 2-11 Jets, with lame duck HC Rex Ryan, won 2 of their final 3, thus missing out on a top-2 pick
• Selected:  DT Leonard Williams
• Missed out on:  Large package of picks (Tennessee reportedly strongly considered moving out of # 2 before selecting Mariota)

2019

• The 4-8 Jets won 3 of their final 4 games of the season to finish 7-9, costing them a top-6 pick
• Selected:  LT Mekhi Becton
• Missed out on:  QB Justin Herbert; OT Jedrick Wills

 

We also won 2 meaningless December games in 2005, but on this occasion we ended up getting a franchise LT out of the deal (Ferguson). 

And a December win in 2018 cost the Jets Nick Bosa in the '19 draft, though Quinnen Williams has gained a lot of ground on Bosa from a career perspective this season.

But the most egregious "failed tanking" effort was of course...

2020

• The 0-13 Jets won back-to-back games in Weeks 15 & 16 with lame duck HC Adam Gase, costing them the # 1 pick
• Selected:  QB Zach Wilson
• Missed out on:  QB Trevor Lawrence

 

There's no getting around this one if you're in the "anti-tanking" group, unless you're simply stubborn and obtuse.  Lawrence looks like the real deal.  Since Week 9 this year, there's arguably been no better QB in the NFL.  The Year 2 leap has happened for him, despite entering a disastrous situation with Urban Meyer in his rookie year.

This may well go down as a Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf situation, and it all could have been avoided had the Jets done what Woody Johnson seemingly refuses to do time and again:  Fire a HC midseason and tank properly.  

Colts have no problem doing it either. It got them Andrew luck and it’s about to get them whoever else they want. The Adam gase season ending wins were the worst. There was a generational talent sitting there. You’re in the drivers seat, all woody had to do was fire the HC that was 100% being fired anyways and “evaluate” your young players. This team with Lawrence would be resting players next week. Instead the fan base is arguing over mike white / Zach Wilson / MLF. 

[carlito1171]

3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Same.  The streak of me rooting against my own team continues another year!

I thought I was past this but I guess I get to come out of retirement for 1 game ?

[Jet9]

What's the point in having top 10 picks if you consistently pick the wrong guy and/or can't develop them? We root for the football version of Krueger Industrial Smoothings.

 

 

[Warfish]

God I hate this site some days.

[carlito1171]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Not calling Pedersen because Woody doesn’t want to pay what experienced successful coaches command on the open market was another mega blunder.

A Savvier NY Jets owner would have a Pedersen/TLaw combo right here in NY, and ppl still Woody isn't the problem ?

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts were all drafted by teams who made the playoffs the year before, and all four were sitting right there for the Jets. We didn’t want them. Having Lawrence would be great, but the real issue is that the Jets are a crap franchise that drafts crap players.

Well yeah.  But sometimes its better to be lucky than good.  Tanking when the opportunity strikes can turn terrible franchises around.  Lawrence was a game-changer for the Jaguars.  It brought them Doug Pederson.  It'll now bring them quality free agents who otherwise would never go to Jacksonville without an overpay.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

When you’re in reach for a legit QB. You absolutely tank. The jets should have. 
 

You need a QB and a good OC. The HC can be an idiot and still succeed with that. 

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

No. My whole point is our situation would’ve been too blatant for the jets to do it. Players don’t tank. You have to put bad players in. Not possible when we are developing 3rd pick the draft without raising red flags 

Its worth the risk.  We'd have gotten Lawrence and answered questions later.  Maybe get docked a pick a year or 2 later.  Who cares.  We'd have a FQB.  

[derp]

10 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

Yes you are right. But, Minshew was never considered the future of that franchise. darnold was at that time 

By the point the team was 0-13 and playing the final three games before they drafted Zach Wilson, Darnold was on the thinnest of ice. I don’t think he was considered the future of the franchise any more.

Earlier in the season? Sure. But not absolutely the future of the franchise by the time the team was 0-13.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, extmenace said:

Colts have no problem doing it either. It got them Andrew luck and it’s about to get them whoever else they want. The Adam gase season ending wins were the worst. There was a generational talent sitting there. You’re in the drivers seat, all woody had to do was fire the HC that was 100% being fired anyways and “evaluate” your young players. This team with Lawrence would be resting players next week. Instead the fan base is arguing over mike white / Zach Wilson / MLF. 

Exactly.  Irsay is notorious for doing this all the time.  Any repercussions come their way over it?  Nope.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Zachtomims47 said:

When you’re in reach for a legit QB. You absolutely tank. The jets should have. 
 

You need a QB and a good OC. The HC can be an idiot and still succeed with that. 

And good QBs attract good coaches.  Pederson when to Jacksonville at least in part BECAUSE of Lawrence being there.

@bitonti that's another benefit.

[Vader]

How do yo fire Saleh mid season this year? 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Vader said:

How do yo fire Saleh mid season this year? 

I believe I put a disclaimer at the top of the first post noting I wasn't talking about tanking THIS year.

But say Saleh is back next year, we don't acquire a quality QB in the offseason, and we start out 1-7.  Do you fire Saleh or let it ride for the full season? I choose the former.

[Jets723]

27 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

The problem with the tanking argument is that players don’t tank. Don’t see how anyone could argue that yes it would be better to not have a better pick. But it’s not logical. I know people think organizations tank and they might, players don’t. 
 

T Law we would’ve had to go winless. No professional athlete wants that on their resume. Especially to help out a team they probably won’t reap the rewards with. 
 

That and you gave examples in your post where the jets were better off with the pick they got and who they picked. 

So I definitely don’t think your wrong just don’t think it goes down like Rachel Phelps in majors league 

Exactly.  Players aren’t going to purposely rank since they are fighting fir their next contracts. I never understood the whole “we gotta tank” talk.  Like you said players/coaches are t going to lose on purpose 

[Vader]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I believe I put a disclaimer at the top of the first post noting I wasn't talking about tanking THIS year.

oh ha 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Jets723 said:

Exactly.  Players aren’t going to purposely rank since they are fighting fir their next contracts. I never understood the whole “we gotta tank” talk.  Like you said players/coaches are t going to lose on purpose 

But front offices do.  And this is somehow news to people.  I don't get the confusion here.

[derp]

As for OP, Jets probably weren’t taking Herbert the year after they drafted Darnold.

Otherwise…pretty much. This has been going on for years. And continues in a week?

I do get the idea behind winning but I genuinely struggle to see it as beneficial most of the time. Really, if there’s a QB in play. Was a huge save in 2005 though.

[carlito1171]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I believe I put a disclaimer at the top of the first post noting I wasn't talking about tanking THIS year.

But say Saleh is back next year, we don't acquire a quality QB in the offseason, and we start out 1-7.  Do you fire Saleh or let it ride for the full season? I choose the former.

Caleb Williams from USC is the next elite QB prospect coming out.......let us have a sh!tty start to next year....everyone in florham park is getting launched into the Sun no later then the bye week

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

As for OP, Jets probably weren’t taking Herbert the year after they drafted Darnold.

Probably not.  But they'd have had a pick slot where Herbert was likely going to still be available.  I.E. they could have traded down to someone who DID want Herbert.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, carlito1171 said:

Caleb Williams from USC is the next elite QB prospect coming out.......let us have a sh!tty start to next year....everyone in florham park is getting launched into the Sun no later then the bye week

You would THINK so.  Except Woody Johnson has never fired a GM or HC midseason. 

And that's a big part of the problem; lame duck coaches are auditioning for their next job and have no interest in losing games.

[carlito1171]

Yall really think the idea of tanking started with Stephen Ross offering up cash for Flores to lose games? 

?????????

[carlito1171]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

You would THINK so.  Except Woody Johnson has never fired a GM or HC midseason.  

I know I was speaking if I was the owner......

If that happens in reality....take it to the bank we pick 3rd-5th missing on both QBs and we'll be arguing about some 3rd round pick, some JAG vet, and some PS QB who lights it up in preseason ?

[Jets723]

19 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

No. My whole point is our situation would’ve been too blatant for the jets to do it. Players don’t tank. You have to put bad players in. Not possible when we are developing 3rd pick the draft without raising red flags 

True