Bills just signed their DT 7% of the cap

[jgb]

14 minutes ago, Facts said:

I actually already corrected you on this. You either didn't see it, or didn't understand it.

Here, i'll copy/paste it:

 

Now, how about percentages over the last two decade?

2013-2023: 81.5% increase in a decade (8.1% per year average over a 10 year basis)

2003 to 2013: 65.3% increase in a decade (6.5% per year over a 10 year basis)

The salary cap has gone up an average of 7.3% per year over the past two decades.

 

Applying this to the contract Q is reported to want.

Q wants $25-30M per season.

If we take the middle of those two numbers, we have $27.5M per season.

To get to the 8% you and I talked about with Jones contract, the salary cap has to be ABOVE $343M.

$27,500,0000 / 0.08 = $343,750,000

We would never reach that, as explained to you before.

In fact, he would only get under 10% in the FINAL YEAR of his contract.

The entirety of the contract would be 10% or MORE.

Sperm already explained the COVID deferments. I’m also not going to waste my time checking your work because you’ve already demonstrated that you don’t discuss in good faith and thus can be safely dismissed as lacking credibility. I guess kids who grew up with common core math are now becoming adults and populating messageboards.

[Facts]

5 minutes ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

Jets don't have to commit anything to QW right now...still under contract.  And then they can always use the tag next year.

This would be the prudent thing to do.

[Facts]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Aprèm already explained the COVID deferments. You’re just not listening and are a waste of time. Enjoy your crusade against reality.

Covid deferments simply catch us up to the historical trends and TV contracts. They don't negate them.

Covid PAUSED the cap. We are simply catching up to where we would be if we didn't pause.

Which bolsters my historical trend argument. 

You were caught believing a post by Sperm that was refuted and now you're stumbling with your pants down.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Facts said:

Covid deferments simply catch us up to the historical trends and TV contracts. They don't negate them.

Covid PAUSED the cap. We are simply catching up to where we would be if we didn't pause.

Which bolsters my historical trend argument. 

You were caught believing a post by Sperm that was refuted and now you're stumbling with your pants down.

Admit it, you chose the name “Facts” like how a fat guy goes by “Tiny,” right? 

[Facts]

15 minutes ago, jgb said:

Admit it, you chose the name “Facts” like how a fat guy goes by “Tiny,” right? 

When the argument is lost, insults become the tool of the loser. - Socrates

[More Cowbell]

2 hours ago, Facts said:

It's just business with Q.

Fans get too wrapped up in their emotions and dont look at the long term.

Belichick would never pay an interior d-linemen over 10% of his cap (over the contract). Because he is smart and knows football.

Seriously? BB didn't  pay anyone because the only player that mattered was Brady and Brady had his TB12 deal with the Pats to make up for salary he wasn't  being paid. Using a franchise with this long history of cheating to the point they have lost first round picks and had materials destroyed by the commissioner for fear of the firestorm that would ensue isn't  exactly helping your case. 

[jamesr]

When the argument is lost, insults become the tool of the loser. - Socrates

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2018/oct/08/viral-image/no-socrates-didnt-call-slander-tool-losers/





Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Facts said:

When the argument is lost, insults become the tool of the loser. - Socrates

We don’t need help from Socrates to know you have negative sense of humor 

[batman10023]

21 hours ago, Facts said:

I never said 4%.

Historically, it takes a decade for NFL cap to increase 100M.

That's 10% per year.

Which is what it would it take for Q's desired contract to reach 8%.

Sure I have. Literally multiple times.

AAV yearly numbers. For example, Chris Jones is $20M per year.

The math is super simple.

Q is said to want $25-$30M per season average.

Let's use $27.5M for a middle ground.

To be at 10%, the cap would have to rise to $275M.

That's $27.5M / 0.1  = 275M

The cap is currently at $225M, so that would be a $50M increase.

Historically, it takes 6 seasons for the cap to go up $50M.

Therefore, if Q signed a 6 year contract (for example), then at the END of his 6 year contract, the final year, (MAYBE) we would reach 10%. So, we would have Q for ONE season at 10%, and the average of the contract would be likely 12 or 13%.

To be at 8% (where Jones is), the cap would have to go up $118 million.

That would take over a decade.

You need to remember percentages versus dollars in terms of cap number

and he’s not getting 27.5mm

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, Facts said:

Breece Hall, Card Lawson and Mecole Hardman COMBINED will earn less than 3% of the cap this season.

So you argue that contracts are backloaded or front loaded and you have to go by their average and then you give me a day two draft pick, a back of the receiver group player and one of the biggest contract on the team as examples.  You’re flailing now

[varjet]

3 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Seriously? BB didn't  pay anyone because the only player that mattered was Brady and Brady had his TB12 deal with the Pats to make up for salary he wasn't  being paid. Using a franchise with this long history of cheating to the point they have lost first round picks and had materials destroyed by the commissioner for fear of the firestorm that would ensue isn't  exactly helping your case. 

BB paid plenty of people. His approach was the spread the money around more evenly.  He also paid his safeties, and TB12 a lot.  He paid his OL.  I don’t recall the Patriots being that far under the cap.

The reality is that signing QW95 to an extension likely lowers his cap this year.  Then his cap increases.  Mosley likely comes off next year, as does Lawson.   Someone or someone’s will always get paid alot/overpaid.  When Sauce needs to get paid, QW95 is likely running off.  

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

$225 million is about $4.5 million dollars.  And that is a couple of depth players, or one VERY good back up or low end starter at many positions.

 

A couple of depth players, a VERY good backup and more?  I doubt that.  Anyway his argument is dumb.  10% of the cap today won’t be its value down the road.  
At some you have to pay your best players, one who was the best at his position last year and is still young, what the market price is.  

[Sperm Edwards]

6 hours ago, Facts said:

My math is perfectly fine. Your wording was off.

You never said from the starting point.

You just added that now.

Your entire post is built around refuting a premise that you made up because you didn't describe what you were meaning, accurately.

Again, you're just making up percentages.

Let's look at historical figures, shall we?

2013-2023: Went from $124M to $225M ($101M increase increase in a decade)

2003 to 2013: Went from $75M to $124M ($49M increase in a decade)

1994 (first year) to 2003: Went from $34M to $75M ($41M increase in a decade)

Now, how about percentages over the last two decade?

2013-2023: 81.5% increase in a decade (8.1% per year over a 10 year basis - not compounded)

2003 to 2013: 65.3% increase in a decade (6.5% per year over a 10 year basis - not compounded)

The salary cap has gone up an average of 7.3% per year, on a 10 year basis, over the past two decades.

So when I said it goes up about 10% per year, I was OVERESTIMATING. 

It's actually LOWER than that.

But, Facts, what about compounding?

The NFL Salary cap doesnt compound on a fixed rate. It doesnt work that way, which is why you use decade averages to get a good estimate.

If you want to look at compounding for the fun of it, you will see a much lower percentage.

For example, over the last 15 years, the NFL salary has compounded at only 4.5% per season. 

Applying these standards to the current cap:

The average increase over the last two decades, per year, was 7.3%.

Which means, in 5 years from now (just guessing on length of Q's contract), the cap will be at $307.1M.

7.3% x 5 years = 36.5% 

36.5% increase over $225M is $307.1M.

Applying this to the contract Q is reported to want.

Q wants $25-30M per season.

If we take the middle of those two numbers, we have $27.5M per season.

To get to the 8% you and I talked about with Jones contract, the salary cap has to be ABOVE $343M.

$27,500,0000 / 0.08 = $343,750,000

We would never reach that, as explained to you before.

In fact, he would only get under 10% in the FINAL YEAR of his contract.

The entirety of the contract would be 10% or MORE.

A four year contract makes it even worse.

7.3% average increase x 4 = 29.2%

29.2% increase over $225M is $291M

Which, again, means ONLY IN THE FINAL YEAR of his contract, will he get below 10%.

The entire value of the contract would be 10% or more and there is zero chance he ever gets to Jones 8% number.

Any time you have to conflate new money with current contract, you know the math is being purposefully manipulated. We are talking new contract here.

You want to tack on the rookie contract final year to spread the monstrosity of a stupid contract over another year with a cheap base. Sorry, but no.

We get Q this year at his cheap rate whether we sign him or not. 

In fact, as mentioned multiple times by yours truly in another thread, what we SHOULD do is:

2023: Let him play out his rookie deal at $9.5M (see if he can even duplicate what he did in 2022)

2024: If he has another great year, non-exclusive franchise tag him at $20.8M

2025: If he has another great, tag him again at $24.9M

With this method, we have him until he is almost 30, at a cost of only $55.2M

That is only 7.5% of the cap. A perfect number to be at for IDL.

And don't run the risk of a Haynesworth situation.

This is not correct.

Everyone else understood just fine, and yes your math is off. I’m using this year as a starting point because we’re living in this year. How is that confusing?

You’re still using past CBAs’ $ increases as though that is what lies ahead no matter how many times it’s pointed out that you’re just wrong. A $10MM increase above when the cap ceiling was $120MM isn’t analogous to an expected $10MM increase above $225MM. PLUS this CBA is richer. PLUS the past 3 cap ceilings were artificially low because of COVID revenue loss (so they wouldn’t have to ruin the 2021 season by dropping the cap even lower than they did, so they spread the loss over 3 years. Next year it takes off where it would and should have been without that artificial dip. So historical increases are irrelevant no matter how tightly you cling to the idea. The current CBA and TV deals are different than they were decades ago, and there was no artificial suppression from COVID. You can ignore these facts all you want, in favor of your supposition fit the future, but thems are the facts.

Name your bet that the cap won’t go up just $10-12MM in 2024 (the pace to take a decade to grow by $100-118MM as you’ve repeatedly claimed). I say (and said) it’ll be at least double that increase.

[Facts]

7 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Everyone else understood just fine, and yes your math is off. I’m using this year as a starting point because we’re living in this year. How is that confusing?

You’re still using past CBAs’ $ increases as though that is what lies ahead no matter how many times it’s pointed out that you’re just wrong. A $10MM increase above when the cap ceiling was $120MM isn’t analogous to an expected $10MM increase above $225MM. PLUS this CBA is richer. PLUS the past 3 cap ceilings were artificially low because of COVID revenue loss (so they wouldn’t have to ruin the 2021 season by dropping the cap even lower than they did, so they spread the loss over 3 years. Next year it takes off where it would and should have been without that artificial dip. So historical increases are irrelevant no matter how tightly you cling to the idea. The current CBA and TV deals are different than they were decades ago, and there was no artificial suppression from COVID. You can ignore these facts all you want, in favor of your supposition fit the future, but thems are the facts.

Name your bet that the cap won’t go up just $10-12MM in 2024 (the pace to take a decade to grow by $100-118MM as you’ve repeatedly claimed). I say (and said) it’ll be at least double that increase.

So, your entire argument is we don’t know what the cap will do going forward and we shouldn’t use historical data to estimate it. Therefore we should assume it will explode in growth and Q will be below 10%.

[Facts]

33 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

 

A couple of depth players, a VERY good backup and more?  I doubt that.  Anyway his argument is dumb.  10% of the cap today won’t be its value down the road.  

10% will always be 10%. It’s a percent. 

[Facts]

34 minutes ago, varjet said:

BB paid plenty of people. His approach was the spread the money around more evenly.  He also paid his safeties, and TB12 a lot.  He paid his OL.  I don’t recall the Patriots being that far under the cap

Correct.

And even when BB had excellent DT’s he still didn’t pay them 10% or more.

[Jet Nut]

12 minutes ago, Facts said:

10% will always be 10%. It’s a percent. 

And you said you were fine with 7%.   For a player who’s not in the same league as Q.  
Don’t know how 10% of 225M will be 10% when the cap goes up to 260M whatever.  

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, Facts said:

PS, I think the Rams are likely regretting that Donald contract about now too.

Donald is 32, on the downturn

Q is 25 and hasn’t reached his peak yet

[jamesr]

10% will always be 10%. It’s a percent. 

Players get paid in $. Not %.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, jgb said:

“It took ten years for the cap to go up $100 million thus it will take 10 years to go up another $100 million.”

Someone missed percentage day in 5th grade math. Just like how he was throwing around Fletcher Cox’s salary in like 2016 as “how smart teams do it” when I pointed out it was the same percentage of the cap as $25M would be today. He never acknowledged that or said “hey, good point.” He just shifted goal posts and pretended it never happened. And now his ego won’t let him back away and he’s left with hoping QW gets hurt or sucks so he can stroke it to an Internet victory lap. Sad existence.

Like arguing that you have to look at a contract in its entirety not in a single year because the money is shifted around and then gave me Lawson as a low cap hit this season, a player that could be signed along with others for a couple of million?

[Dunnie]

Why hasn't this happened yet ?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Facts]

53 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Players get paid in $. Not %.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

And the only thing a franchise should care about is %. Because that's how you stay competitive.

[Facts]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

And you said you were fine with 7%.   For a player who’s not in the same league as Q.  

I'm fine with 7.5% for Q.

Bills fans should be pissed for paying Oliver that, but 7.5% is the right percentage overall.

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Don’t know how 10% of 225M will be 10% when the cap goes up to 260M whatever.  

This has been explained a bazillion times. 

The mount Q is asking for, the salary cap will take 5-7 years to reach 10%.

It won't be 10% right now. It will be more like 12-13% now and 10% by the end of his contract. Terrible contract.

[Facts]

49 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Why hasn't this happened yet ?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

I'm hopeful its because JD is on my side and knows this would be a dumb move.

[Facts]

56 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Like arguing that you have to look at a contract in its entirety not in a single year because the money is shifted around and then gave me Lawson as a low cap hit this season, a player that could be signed along with others for a couple of million?

That is ENTIRE REASON why it works... because of what you just said. Because of down years in a contract, there will always be players we can fit for 3% extra.

Good players too.

It wont always be the same player, though. Because, as you said, because of how contracts are back loaded or front loaded.

That extra 2-3% essentially gives you room to do those deals.

That is different than analyzing a contract as a percentage of the cap and position. Smart franchises look at the overall contract for an individual player compared to the position of cap %, and fill in quality extra pieces.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Facts said:

So, your entire argument is we don’t know what the cap will do going forward and we shouldn’t use historical data to estimate it. Therefore we should assume it will explode in growth and Q will be below 10%.

No, I'm saying the cap is going up, and it's going up a lot more than you think it will because you're ignoring the network deal and how this revenue share translates to cap space.

News flash: they don't look up the past 20 years' cap limits and get together in a back room to come up with a random number. The cap ceiling isn't an arbitrary number of last year plus 7 or 10% every year. 

So NO, you should not use historical data to estimate it. Historical data didn't have the current network deal in it, and didn't have 3 consecutive years of artificial suppression due to covid. It doesn't work like that, no matter how much time you spent looking up the cap increases from 10, 20, or 30 years ago. 

Bet me on it if you're so sure. It doesn't have to be $ to a charity; it can be free like a sig bet. I'm ok with either one. 

Plus his contract will be maximum $27MM/year and likely closer to $25MM per, but that's really just a guess. Not that it'll be equally weighted in the first place, but a $25MM average will already be under 10% by next season; never mind the 3 ensuing seasons.

Plus where did this ridiculous idea come from? Your own example was a player who got a $20MM/year contract when the cap was $182.5MM in y1 (11%) and $198MM in y2 (nominally north of 10%). And because he was a UFA at the time, KC couldn't amortize bonus money over a 5th season like the Jets can do with QW. 

[Facts]

17 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No, I'm saying the cap is going up, and it's going up a lot more than you think it will because you're ignoring the network deal and how this revenue share translates to cap space.

News flash: they don't look up the past 20 years' cap limits and get together in a back room to come up with a random number. The cap ceiling isn't an arbitrary number of last year plus 7 or 10% every year. 

So NO, you should not use historical data to estimate it. Historical data didn't have the current network deal in it, and didn't have 3 consecutive years of artificial suppression due to covid. It doesn't work like that, no matter how much time you spent looking up the cap increases from 10, 20, or 30 years ago. 

Bet me on it if you're so sure. It doesn't have to be $ to a charity; it can be free like a sig bet. I'm ok with either one. 

Plus his contract will be maximum $27MM/year and likely closer to $25MM per, but that's really just a guess. Not that it'll be equally weighted in the first place, but a $25MM average will already be under 10% by next season; never mind the 3 ensuing seasons.

Plus where did this ridiculous idea come from? Your own example was a player who got a $20MM/year contract when the cap was $182.5MM in y1 (11%) and $198MM in y2 (nominally north of 10%). And because he was a UFA at the time, KC couldn't amortize bonus money over a 5th season like the Jets can do with QW. 

$150 says the cap follows the historical average over the next 5 years, within a 10% confidence range.

Deal?

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

Why hasn't this happened yet ?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Facts said it would be thuh dumb

[jgb]

I’m going to laugh when QW’s deal comes in at 9.9999% of the cap and Facts will have to admit it’s thuh smart 

[RutgersJetFan]

6 hours ago, Facts said:

When the argument is lost, insults become the tool of the loser. - Socrates

I'm too drunk to taste this chicken. - The late, great, Colonel Sanders

[Jetsfan80]

31 minutes ago, jgb said:

I’m going to laugh when QW’s deal comes in at 9.9999% of the cap and Facts will have to admit it’s thuh smart 

No he'll just try to make an inane argument that it's super secretly well over 10 % and you know nothing about the cap.

[Facts]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

I’m going to laugh when QW’s deal comes in at 9.9999% of the cap and Facts will have to admit it’s thuh smart 

Have to admit, I laughed at this lol.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Facts said:

Have to admit, I laughed at this lol.

Better take yourself into the shop, might be a programming issue

[jgb]

35 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No he'll just try to make an inane argument that it's super secretly well over 10 % and you know nothing about the cap.

He will argue that because of inflation “10% ain’t what it used to be.”

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Facts said:

$150 says the cap follows the historical average over the next 5 years, within a 10% confidence range.

Deal?

A 5-year bet?? I was thinking this coming year, but you'll lose either way. I think you know this which is why you want it stretched out for 5 years, figuring it'll be forgotten. I'll take that bet anyway.

So give your cap ceilings for each year -- in dollars, not in something intangible. I already did. 

Already you've stated it will take 10 years for the cap to rise by ~$100MM so keep it in that range. 

I like doing this for charity, not for paying the other person directly (you'll just provide me with email proof or similar that you've donated). Same money leaving the loser's hands.

Also we should make it a signature bet. I'm thinking you should have to make your signature something crude -- a play on words involving Sperm, lol.