Bills just signed their DT 7% of the cap

[Facts]

9 hours ago, slats said:

The bigger issue is your insistence that good teams don’t pay DTs, period, especially when the last two Super Bowl champions have DTs taking up 10% of their caps this year. 

To be honest, I don't mind if Q is paid over 10% for a single year. That's fine. Teams have to back/front load deals sometimes and I understand that. My problem is if the entire contract is over 10%. Actually 'd prefer 7.5%.

9 hours ago, slats said:

I don’t know what the final contract will be, but the man is worth north of $25M a year.

This is where we disagree.

I don't think ANY defensive tackle is worth over $25M. They just aren't. Maybe prime Aaron Donald but even he I would be queasy about.

ESPECIALLY when you can capture the dominant years of a DT for a lesser price.

We own the rights to Q for the next 3 seasons, at a cost of only $55M. His signing bonus alone would be well over that. 

By that time he will be almost 29, based off memory. And the bulk of his great years will be used up. 

9 hours ago, slats said:

He’d easily get that on the open market

100% agreed. He would get that on the open market.

But the open market does not = good deal.

If a banana that is plated in gold is selling for $1,000,000 - it doesnt mean that YOU should spend $1M on that banana. It just means that there is an idiot somewhere that will pay that amount so they charge it. 

We should be the Titans in this situation. Not the Redskins.

[Facts]

13 hours ago, rex-n-effect said:

Typically when discussing future growth using a growth rate, it makes sense to compound the growth to discuss year over year growth.

I did this as well. 

I literally presented BOTH options.

The compounded cap rate over the last decade was 4.5%.. The 10-year basis was 7.3%. The end-number is the same regardless.

I broke that down in a post several pages back, with all the numbers, including compounding growth rate.

If you aren't going to actually READ what im writing, why bother responding to it?

[Facts]

38 minutes ago, Facts said:

We own the rights to Q for the next 3 seasons, at a cost of only $55M. His signing bonus alone would be well over that. 

By that time he will be almost 29, based off memory. And the bulk of his great years will be used up. 

Just to elaborate on this.

Defensive Tackles start to break down at this age

Aaron Donald's last All-Pro(1) year was at 29 years old. HIs best year of his career was at 27.

Kris Jenkins never had another All-Pro selection (1 or 2) past 29 years old. His best year was at age 24.

Warren Sapps last All-Pro season was at age 29 as well.

Laroi Glovers last All-Pro season was at age 29 as well.

Kevin Williams last All-Pro season at age 29 as well.

Marcus Strouds last All-Pro season was at age 27.

There is a correlation here! We control Q's rights until he is almost 29. The bulk of a DT's great years. And for only $55M! It simply makes zero financial sense to give him a huge contract.

[rex-n-effect]

22 minutes ago, Facts said:

I did this as well. 

I literally presented BOTH options.

The compounded cap rate over the last decade was 4.5%.. The 10-year basis was 7.3%. The end-number is the same regardless.

I broke that down in a post several pages back, with all the numbers, including compounding growth rate.

If you aren't going to actually READ what im writing, why bother responding to it?

I read what you wrote. You wrote more than once in the thread that it was incorrect to discuss increases in the salary cap year over year. If you're not sure what you're writing, maybe don't write it?

[Facts]

10 minutes ago, rex-n-effect said:

I read what you wrote. You wrote more than once in the thread that it was incorrect to discuss increases in the salary cap year over year.

Wrong again. I wrote that the salary cap does not compound at a fixed rate.

10 minutes ago, rex-n-effect said:

If you're not sure what you're writing, maybe don't write it?

The problem is not my writing - it is your lack of understanding of what I am writing.

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

No my premise is not that QW dogged it - he played to the best of his abilities and was good. He had one great year. 
 

He is signed through next year so the Jets are not giving up on QW - they have QW. They have a very motivated player that they can lock down for two years maybe three counting the franchise tag. 

Players get better, get stronger etc, what’s surprising.  He’s still only 25.

Yes you can tag players.  And usually you’re heading to a bad divorce.

[Jet Nut]

41 minutes ago, Facts said:

Just to elaborate on this.

Defensive Tackles start to break down at this age

Aaron Donald's last All-Pro(1) year was at 29 years old. HIs best year of his career was at 27.

Kris Jenkins never had another All-Pro selection (1 or 2) past 29 years old. His best year was at age 24.

Warren Sapps last All-Pro season was at age 29 as well.

Laroi Glovers last All-Pro season was at age 29 as well.

Kevin Williams last All-Pro season at age 29 as well.

Marcus Strouds last All-Pro season was at age 27.

There is a correlation here! We control Q's rights until he is almost 29. The bulk of a DT's great years. And for only $55M! It simply makes zero financial sense to give him a huge contract.

QW is 25.  29 is a long way off.   

You need to check your FACTS:

Sapp made the Pro Bowl as a 30 year old and a 31 year old.  
Aaron Donald made the Pro Bowl as a 30 year old and a 31 year old.  We’ll see if he adds an appearance as a 32 year old. 
Same with La’Roi Glover at 30 & 31 year old.  Same for Kevin Williams
I stopped, you’re wrong too often, your theory is dead wrong.
 

[Facts]

18 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

QW is 25.  29 is a long way off.   

The Jets own his contractual rights until he is almost 29.

18 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

You need to check your FACTS:

Your reading comprehension skills need honing.

No one mentioned the joke that is a "pro bowl". What was mentioned is All-Pro nominations. Either first team or second team. That signifies an elite player.

You need to READ what the other person is saying before arguing with them about it.

The Pro-Bowl is a joke and a popularity contest. Tyler Huntley made the Pro-Bowl last year after a 3 TD and 4 INT season. Jeff Saturday made the Pro-Bowl after being BENCHED by his team for playing so terrible. Or how about Landry with us in the mid 2000's? The list is endless.

18 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Sapp made the Pro Bowl as a 30 year old and a 31 year old.  
Aaron Donald made the Pro Bowl as a 30 year old and a 31 year old.  We’ll see if he adds an appearance as a 32 year old. 
Same with La’Roi Glover at 30 & 31 year old.  Same for Kevin Williams

Pro Bowl is NOT the same thing as All Pro. I said All-Pro. Not Pro-Bowl.

Reading comprehension is very important in online conversations.

 

[Jet Nut]

19 minutes ago, Facts said:

The Jets own his contractual rights until he is almost 29.

Your reading comprehension skills need honing.

No one mentioned the joke that is a "pro bowl". What was mentioned is All-Pro nominations. Either first team or second team. That signifies an elite player.

You need to READ what the other person is saying before arguing with them about it.

The Pro-Bowl is a joke and a popularity contest. Tyler Huntley made the Pro-Bowl last year after a 3 TD and 4 INT season. Jeff Saturday made the Pro-Bowl after being BENCHED by his team for playing so terrible. Or how about Landry with us in the early 2000's? The list is endless.

Pro Bowl is NOT the same thing as All Pro. I said All-Pro. Not Pro-Bowl.

Reading comprehension is very important in online conversations.

 

And All Pro isn’t a vote?  Pro Bowls don’t count?  
You’re point was their play falls off and you’re wrong.

Guys like T Huntley make the Pro Bowl because all those who get voted in turn it down.  Not because they were voted starters

[Facts]

14 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And All Pro isn’t a vote?  Pro Bowls don’t count?  

Pro Bowls are partially voted on by fans and players friends and is essentially a popularity contest. It’s a joke. Popular players that are aging get votes when their play no longer deserves.

14 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

You’re point was their play falls off and you’re wrong.

No. My point is that all-pro defines elite players. And players stop being voted all-pro when they are no longer elite. They may still be “good”, but not “elite”.

All-Pro 1 and 2 is the gold standard of elite play. It shows that a player is in the top 4 (spending on group) of their position in the league.

All the DT’s I mentioned stopped being an all-pro by age 29.

So if DT’s typically stop being elite at 29, and we hold Q’s contractual rights until he is almost 29, for CHEAP, then why on earth should we spend 10% or more of our cap on him?

[rex-n-effect]

45 minutes ago, Facts said:

Wrong again. I wrote that the salary cap does not compound at a fixed rate.

The problem is not my writing - it is your lack of understanding of what I am writing.

What do words mean, anyway?

[Jet Nut]

8 minutes ago, Facts said:

Pro Bowls are partially voted on by fans and is a popularity contest. It’s a joke. Popular players that are aging get votes when their play no longer deserves.

No. My point is that all-pro defines elite players. And players stop being voted all-pro when they are no longer elite. They may still be “good”, but not “elite”.

All-Pro is the gold standard of elite play. It shows that a player is in the top 4 of their position in the league.

All the DT’s I mentioned stopped being an all-pro by age 29.

Pro Bowl May be a joke to you but it’s not to most.

Whatever your points are, you’ve been knocked down and shot down by pretty much everyone here.  In your two threads attempting to make a point that no one agrees with.  Like it or not QW is a $25-$27M dollar player.  He’s not getting paid what lesser DLs make because you have some lame theory on the difference between 7.5% - 10% of an overall cap that you don’t even know will be moving forward

‘It’s time to shut it down

[Facts]

2 minutes ago, rex-n-effect said:

What do words mean, anyway?

Especially when people are unable to understand them.

[Facts]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Whatever your points are

Bingo. This conversation is well over your head.

[slats]

14 hours ago, Facts said:

This is where we disagree.

I don't think ANY defensive tackle is worth over $25M. They just aren't. Maybe prime Aaron Donald but even he I would be queasy about.

ESPECIALLY when you can capture the dominant years of a DT for a lesser price.

We own the rights to Q for the next 3 seasons, at a cost of only $55M. His signing bonus alone would be well over that. 

By that time he will be almost 29, based off memory. And the bulk of his great years will be used up. 

Yes, we disagree here wholeheartedly. I don’t understand your position at all. You recognize the value of an Edge rusher, but you can’t comprehend the value of a DT who puts up similar pass rushing numbers from the inside. It’s a weird disconnect. 
 
These are guys who typically play at a high level into their early thirties, only reaching their prime around 25 or so, they’re not running backs. Jets also have -fairly or or unfairly- an optics problem when it comes to paying their own players, and this is the first guy up in a long time who actually deserves a deal. Signing him secures one of the best players on the team and sends a positive message to the locker room at same time. Your method would lead to an unhappy locker room; Q would be pissed and many of his teammates would be pissed right along side him. They’re trying to build a winning culture here. They need management and the players on the same side. 
 
And no, his signing bonus won’t be $55M. His total guarantee will probably be more than that, but his signing bonus will be closer to half of that, maybe $30M. It will be a four year extension paid out over five years, lowering your precious value per year in the process. He will never average over 10% of the cap, and that percentage will drop rapidly. Doing it now will be cheaper and easier than trying to do it next year with a tag and the threat of other bidders. Your argument works a little better when it comes to his next deal, but these are the prime years to lock the player up. That contract -like all of them- will be dwarfed by the time it gets to years three and four. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Yes, we disagree here wholeheartedly. I don’t understand your position at all. You recognize the value of an Edge rusher, but you can’t comprehend the value of a DT who puts up similar pass rushing numbers from the inside. It’s a weird disconnect. 
 
These are guys who typically play at a high level into their early thirties, only reaching their prime around 25 or so, they’re not running backs. Jets also have -fairly or or unfairly- an optics problem when it comes to paying their own players, and this is the first guy up in a long time who actually deserves a deal. Signing him secures one of the best players on the team and sends a positive message to the locker room at same time. Your method would lead to an unhappy locker room; Q would be pissed and many of his teammates would be pissed right along side him. They’re trying to build a winning culture here. They need management and the players on the same side. 
 
And no, his signing bonus won’t be $55M. His total guarantee will probably be more than that, but his signing bonus will be closer to half of that, maybe $30M. It will be a four year extension paid out over five years, lowering your precious value per year in the process. He will never average over 10% of the cap, and that percentage will drop rapidly. Doing it now will be cheaper and easier than trying to do it next year with a tag and the threat of other bidders. Your argument works a little better when it comes to his next deal, but these are the prime years to lock the player up. That contract -like all of them- will be dwarfed by the time it gets to years three and four. 

The Mahomes contract was jaw-dropping when it was signed. Three years in, he’s already underpaid.

Happens whenever we see a new bump in past trends: a couple years later, while still a significant amount, it seems very much in line, and possibly a shrewd move to have gotten in early.

Anyway QW is worth $25MM more than Lawson is worth $15MM. If there was a preseason discussion on an adjustment to be made, it should be to the less unicorny end. In truth it doesn’t matter, as they can afford both. And Aaron Rodgers with them.

[jamesr]

The Mahomes contract was jaw-dropping when it was signed. Three years in, he’s already underpaid.
Happens whenever we see a new bump in past trends: a couple years later, while still a significant amount, it seems very much in line, and possibly a shrewd move to have gotten in early.
Anyway QW is worth $25MM more than Lawson is worth $15MM. If there was a preseason discussion on an adjustment to be made, it should be to the less unicorny end. In truth it doesn’t matter, as they can afford both. And Aaron Rodgers with them.

I could guarantee that the same people saying we should wait to see if Q has another monster year will be complaining that we didn't lock him up sooner after he has another monster year.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[jgb]

1 hour ago, jamesr said:

I could guarantee that the same people saying we should wait to see if Q has another monster year will be complaining that we didn't lock him up sooner after he has another monster year.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Correct. GM has to balance the risks

[jgb]

12 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The Mahomes contract was jaw-dropping when it was signed. Three years in, he’s already underpaid.

Got into it with our friend slats when I said as such. Death, taxes, and increasing NFL salary cap. 

[slimjasi]

12 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The Mahomes contract was jaw-dropping when it was signed. Three years in, he’s already underpaid.

Happens whenever we see a new bump in past trends: a couple years later, while still a significant amount, it seems very much in line, and possibly a shrewd move to have gotten in early.

Anyway QW is worth $25MM more than Lawson is worth $15MM. If there was a preseason discussion on an adjustment to be made, it should be to the less unicorny end. In truth it doesn’t matter, as they can afford both. And Aaron Rodgers with them.

I think this is a great way to look at it. We often spend so much time worrying if an elite player is being overpaid while ignoring all of the middling players who are overpaid (and, to be fair, I think Lawson is a good player).  If you are going to overpay a little, might as well do it for the top tier talent. 

[Cyberjet]

3 hours ago, jamesr said:

I could guarantee that the same people saying we should wait to see if Q has another monster year will be complaining that we didn't lock him up sooner after he has another monster year.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Not really. You sign him for his value ($25 million) or you franchise him or you trade him. I’m always amazed that people state that they understand it’s a business until they don’t. 
 

If the Jets don’t sign him to a ridiculous contract this year and want to wait until next year you will have a very motivated player. 

[Cyberjet]

How the Jets boxed themselves into this PR mess is beyond me. The Jets hold ALL the cards

[jamesr]

Not really. You sign him for his value ($25 million) or you franchise him or you trade him. I’m always amazed that people state that they understand it’s a business until they don’t. 
 
If the Jets don’t sign him to a ridiculous contract this year and want to wait until next year you will have a very motivated player. 

Or potentially a very demotivated one ... it can be a bit of a balancing act.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Cyberjet]

3 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Or potentially a very demotivated one ... it can be a bit of a balancing act.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Then you know what you have ( without breaking the bank)

[JETS SB]

6 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

How the Jets boxed themselves into this PR mess is beyond me. The Jets hold ALL the cards

How is it a PR mess ? It’s a Jets Nation message board monstrosity, but everyday business in the NFL. 

[jamesr]

Then you know what you have ( without breaking the bank)

Either way - I'd rather we have players whose main motivation is to play the best football they can and win games, rather than focus on the money (or lack thereof).

But players are human after all, so there aren't many for whom money is not a big factor.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Cyberjet]

Meaning that Saleh said it will get done. They have taken the option not to sign him and let him play out his contract through the 5th year off the table which is ridiculous when you are negotiating a contract. If it doesn’t  ‘get done’ the knives will be out. 

[Cyberjet]

7 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Either way - I'd rather we have players whose main motivation is to play the best football they can and win games, rather than focus on the money (or lack thereof).

But players are human after all, so there aren't many for whom money is not a big factor.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

I understand this perspective and kind of agree with it (I like happy) but all I’m saying is he is under contact (that 5th year is a big deal) and the Jets are strapped. There are other up and coming studs on the Jets taking notes. 

[JETS SB]

On 6/6/2023 at 12:25 PM, Facts said:

Pro Bowls are partially voted on by fans and players friends and is essentially a popularity contest. It’s a joke. Popular players that are aging get votes when their play no longer deserves.

No. My point is that all-pro defines elite players. And players stop being voted all-pro when they are no longer elite. They may still be “good”, but not “elite”.

All-Pro 1 and 2 is the gold standard of elite play. It shows that a player is in the top 4 (spending on group) of their position in the league.

All the DT’s I mentioned stopped being an all-pro by age 29.

So if DT’s typically stop being elite at 29, and we hold Q’s contractual rights until he is almost 29, for CHEAP, then why on earth should we spend 10% or more of our cap on him?

The 10% number you keep bringing up is such a joke. Every player and team is different. Q is a unicorn. A dominant DL with elite pass rushing ability, is Aaron Donald, and few others. Q will get paid his 20-25 million for 4 years, with likely a 10-15 mil cap hit for year 1. He is well worth it. No team sticks to strict percentages for position groups. The structure of the team warrants higher numbers for commonly lower paid position groups. Q is the obvious glue to our defense. Without him, it doesn’t work. We will pay him. (Unless of course, we trade him for Davante Adams 😂) Sorry to burst your 7% bubble. 

[jamesr]

I understand this perspective and kind of agree with it (I like happy) but all I’m saying is he is under contact (that 5th year is a big deal) and the Jets are strapped. There are other up and coming studs on the Jets taking notes. 

Oh I'm sure other players are ... and that is an important factor. If other players see guys who work hard and deliver on the field get rewarded, it can be a motivating factor for them too. If they see that guy get treated unfairly (in their eyes, at any rate) it can lead to demotivation and discontent.

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[Cyberjet]

2 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Oh I'm sure other players are ... and that is an important factor. If other players see guys who work hard and deliver on the field get rewarded, it can be a motivating factor for them too. If they see that guy get treated unfairly (in their eyes, at any rate) it can lead to demotivation and discontent.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Those are good points - it’s a juggle - there is no doubt. In the end though most people are out for themselves (which is not a bad thing for football players) but the GM responsibility is what is best for the Jets not the individual (strictly speaking business). Sometimes being nice is not necessarily the best guiding principle when it comes to the business of running a football team. 
 

[Cyberjet]

I hate to bring him up but BB made some cold appearing decisions that seemed to suck on a personal level but helped the team 

I don’t mean to say we need to be complete hard asses like BB but there is a gradient to approaching all of this 

[jamesr]

I hate to bring him up but BB made some cold appearing decisions that seemed to suck on a personal level but helped the team 
I don’t mean to say we need to be complete hard asses like BB but there is a gradient to approaching all of this 

I was going to reply to your previous post ... that sometimes it's the scumbags that have the most success.

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[Cyberjet]

Just now, jamesr said:

I was going to reply to your previous post ... that sometimes it's the scumbags that have the most success.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

It’s true. Hopefully JD finds that balance 

[slats]

8 hours ago, jgb said:

Got into it with our friend slats when I said as such. Death, taxes, and increasing NFL salary cap. 

I don’t recall this. I do remember never liking Mahomes’ contract, believing he was foolish and a little too team friendly to sign such a long term deal in the first place. Despite the big numbers being thrown around, it was always not going to look nearly as good a couple years down the road.