Bills just signed their DT 7% of the cap

[Barry McCockinner]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

You need a remedial course on percentages. We keep telling you things things but you just steamroll ahead ignorantly.

facts

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Facts said:

The term breakeven was just used to establish 10% of the salary cap as the baseline.

Words have meaning. If you want to play John Maynard Keynes, you should try to use super basic economic phrases cogently.

[Titan24]

3 hours ago, Facts said:

The best thing about this is... we will all find out who is right eventually.

All we need is TIME.

In a couple years, may of you will be saying "Facts was right".

And the rest of you will be pretending like you never argued with me about it.

[Greenseed4]

4 hours ago, Facts said:

You're looking at 1 single year, not the contract average.

Teams front load and backload deals all the time. We are talking about over the whole average of the contract what is the %. 

He has ranged from 6% to 14% over the years, but his average is only 8%.

In NFL HISTORY there has only been 1 IDL player EVER who had 10% or more over the course of a contract. In the history of the NFL. All time.

I've researched this so much I could write a dissertation on the topic.

 

Never mind the ridiculous premise here…

QW was a 3rd overall pick.

Those guys tend to command large contacts when they play well.

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, BCJet said:

What is the next step?

QW was second in sacks for all IDL - 12.5 to chris jones 15.5.  Jones had 5 more TFL but 5 less total tackles.  

What else do you want?   The truth is it would be ok if he took a step back to 10 sacks a year for the life of the contract, thats how rare it is for an IDL to be that good.

If he is getting 10 sacks, then goodbye.

He wants elite money then he better be as good if not better than he was last year.

Mo wilk in his contract year was as good if not better than quinnen and he tanked.

Quinnen has had ONE great year , one.

[Maynard13]

4 hours ago, Facts said:

And yeah, Q is much better than their guy but the point is SMART teams don't pay an interior d-linemen over 10% of the cap.

No you’re not. Q has become one of the top 5 interior DL. Their defense looked pedestrian when he missed a game last year. He single handedly elevated this defense into one of the best. Is it the best? No. But he is indispensable to its development. Q is just coming into his prime and JD will not mess with low balling him. Q is getting paid. JD can’t afford to play games here. Woody is all in with Rodgers for the next few years and that also includes surrounding both sides of the offense and defense with top talent. 

[Maynard13]

21 minutes ago, Titan24 said:

For once, he’s right. Hey a clock is right twice a day. 

[Barry McCockinner]

26 minutes ago, jgb said:

Words have meaning. If you want to play John Maynard Keynes, you should try to use super basic economic phrases cogently.

Keynes was a scam artist.

[Maynard13]

30 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

facts

It’s party time

 

[MichaelScott]

4 hours ago, Facts said:

Yeah this is not how NFL math works.

If Q gets what he wants ($30M per season), it would take the cap going up $80M to get under 10%.

Historically, it takes nearly a DECADE for the cap to go up that much.

How arbitrary is it if the REST OF THE NFL does it my way?

The rest of the NFL spends, on average 7.5% of their cap on interior d-linemen. All of them. Combined 7.5%. For Numerous interior d-linemen.

You want to spend 10% on ONE player.

How exactly can you compare what the rest of the league pays their top 3 in the league DT? When you're resigning a top of his position player, by definition, that's something the vast majority of the league doesn't have on their team to pay in the first place. That's a horrible argument. 

[BCJet]

19 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

If he is getting 10 sacks, then goodbye.

He wants elite money then he better be as good if not better than he was last year.

Mo wilk in his contract year was as good if not better than quinnen and he tanked.

Quinnen has had ONE great year , one.

Just so we are on the same page - you think if QW gets 4 years $100 million and for the 4 years of that contract gets 10 sacks each year, he would not have lived up to the contract?

[Doggin94it]

4 hours ago, Facts said:

The best thing about this is... we will all find out who is right eventually.

All we need is TIME.

In a couple years, may of you will be saying "Facts was right".

And the rest of you will be pretending like you never argued with me about it.

Having read a lot of your takes over the years I'm confident that this will also be false

[ylekram]

"facts" takes on jet nation part deux

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

So I actually understand where facts is coming from. Under normal circumstances I’d agree that paying a dt over 10 percent of the cap is stupid. DTs aren’t extremely hard to find imo. But I don’t think Q is your average DT. He’s not just a run stuffer. He’s a pass rusher coming right up the gut. And that brings a lot of extra value. I would be against giving him 30 million a year. But 25 sounds about right considering the market. He should be paid higher than everyone except Donald.  

[slats]

5 hours ago, Facts said:

That's a huge difference. 2% of hundreds of millions of dollars is a big deal.

It's the difference between being able to afford top linemen to protect Rodgers or not. (just an example, insert any premium position here)

Personally, I would never want to go above 7.5%. Thats my cap. 

When you have to resort to "the argument is cheeks", you know you have no basis.

Impact players get paid, and DT is absolutely a premium in the NFL with higher pay than every position on the OL including LT. Higher than every position on defense but Edge rushers. Why do they get paid? Because they get to the QB like Q does. 
 
The fact also is that Q’s deal will likely be a four year extension worth around $100M to be paid out over five years. He’s under contract for this year for $9.5M. Jets can give him a cash bonus this year of $30M, bringing his 2023 cap charge to $15.5M and leaving $70M to be spread over the next four, or approximately $23.5M/year starting in 2024 when the cap is projected to be over $250M (breaking $300M by 2026). 
 
So for all of your hypothetical arguments about what Q allegedly is asking for, his average cap number is unlikely to ever exceed 10% of the cap. I have no idea what your point might be here other than to antagonize the entire board with your willful ignorance. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

7 hours ago, Facts said:

And yeah, Q is much better than their guy but the point is SMART teams don't pay an interior d-linemen over 10% of the cap.

This is what JD should be telling Q right now:

What you wrote kind of goes against your point

It's comical at this point

[Sperm Edwards]

6 hours ago, Facts said:

I never said 4%.

Historically, it takes a decade for NFL cap to increase 100M.

That's 10% per year.

Which is what it would it take for Q's desired contract to reach 8%.

Sure I have. Literally multiple times.

AAV yearly numbers. For example, Chris Jones is $20M per year.

The math is super simple.

Q is said to want $25-$30M per season average.

Let's use $27.5M for a middle ground.

To be at 10%, the cap would have to rise to $275M.

That's $27.5M / 0.1  = 275M

The cap is currently at $225M, so that would be a $50M increase.

Historically, it takes 6 seasons for the cap to go up $50M.

Therefore, if Q signed a 6 year contract (for example), then at the END of his 6 year contract, the final year, (MAYBE) we would reach 10%. So, we would have Q for ONE season at 10%, and the average of the contract would be likely 12 or 13%.

To be at 8% (where Jones is), the cap would have to go up $118 million.

That would take over a decade.

Your math is off by so much and you’re even saying so without realizing it.

To take 10 years to increase $100MM is a 4% per year increase from the current starting point, not 10%. Even forgetting compounding interest for a second, your math suggests the cap is currently $100MM for $10MM/yr to represent a 10%/year increase.

A 10% increase of $225MM is $22.5MM, not $10MM = $247.5MM. That’s just for 2024. Except it ignores the built-in bump for next year. The reason is the hit from covid was spread over 3 years not 1 (2023 being y3). It’ll go up somewhere between another $5-15MM or so above that next year, to get back to where it should’ve been, or somewhere between $250-260MM in 2024. Read OTC explanation here.

• Then another 10% is now another ~$25MM on top of that ($275-285MM) for 2025.
• 10% more than that = another ~$28MM ($303-313MM) for 2026.
• 10% more than that = another ~$30MM ($330-340MM) for 2027.

Whatever the exact % increase is from one year to the next, It’ll take ~4 years from now to go up more than $100MM, not a decade. Not anywhere near a decade. Again, that would be about a 4% annual increase, not 10%.

Then there’s your contract length. The Jets aren’t signing him to another 6 years. It’ll probably be a 4-year extension on top of his current season (his signing bonus will spread over 5 years, not just the 4, since he’ll get that the day it’s signed). I’d welcome a longer deal, but it’s not likely happening.

Even using your $27MM amount, which I think is higher than he’ll get (but we’ll find that out soon), his total cost would be $108MM new money + his current $10MM = 5 years $118MM, or $24MM/year. 

Using low cap increase estimates from above (lower than OTC predicts), and using your $27MM extension amount, he’ll be at 8.7% of the cap: $24MM avg of a $276MM avg from 2023-2027. It’s an even lower percentage of the cap if he signs for closer to $25MM, if the cap increases faster than those low estimates, or both.

And your % math is still off on Jones, but this post is long enough. 

[defensedoesntgetyoulaid]

9 hours ago, Facts said:

And yeah, Q is much better than their guy but the point is SMART teams don't pay an interior d-linemen over 10% of the cap.

This is what JD should be telling Q right now:

Williams is 10 times the player Ed Oliver is. Not sure why they've given him this huge extension. Never been consistent or dominant, just has the odd good game.

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Your math is off by so much and you’re even saying so without realizing it.

To take 10 years to increase $100MM is a 4% per year increase from the current starting point, not 10%. Even forgetting compounding interest for a second, your math suggests the cap is currently $100MM for $10MM/yr to represent a 10%/year increase.

A 10% increase of $225MM is $22.5MM, not $10MM = $247.5MM. That’s just for 2024. Except it ignores the built-in bump for next year. The reason is the hit from covid was spread over 3 years not 1 (2023 being y3). It’ll go up somewhere between another $5-15MM or so above that next year, to get back to where it should’ve been, or somewhere between $250-260MM in 2024. Read OTC explanation here.

• Then another 10% is now another ~$25MM on top of that ($275-285MM) for 2025.
• 10% more than that = another ~$28MM ($303-313MM) for 2026.
• 10% more than that = another ~$30MM ($330-340MM) for 2027.

Whatever the exact % increase is from one year to the next, It’ll take ~4 years from now to go up more than $100MM, not a decade. Not anywhere near a decade. Again, that would be about a 4% annual increase, not 10%.

Then there’s your contract length. The Jets aren’t signing him to another 6 years. It’ll probably be a 4-year extension on top of his current season (his signing bonus will spread over 5 years, not just the 4, since he’ll get that the day it’s signed). I’d welcome a longer deal, but it’s not likely happening.

Even using your $27MM amount, which I think is higher than he’ll get (but we’ll find that out soon), his total cost would be $108MM new money + his current $10MM = 5 years $118MM, or $24MM/year. 

Using low cap increase estimates from above (lower than OTC predicts), and using your $27MM extension amount, he’ll be at 8.7% of the cap: $24MM avg of a $276MM avg from 2023-2027. It’s an even lower percentage of the cap if he signs for closer to $25MM, if the cap increases faster than those low estimates, or both.

And your % math is still off on Jones, but this post is long enough. 

Nice post. Too bad he won’t absorb it.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Your math is off by so much and you’re even saying so without realizing it.

To take 10 years to increase $100MM is a 4% per year increase from the current starting point, not 10%. Even forgetting compounding interest for a second, your math suggests the cap is currently $100MM for $10MM/yr to represent a 10%/year increase.

A 10% increase of $225MM is $22.5MM, not $10MM = $247.5MM. That’s just for 2024. Except it ignores the built-in bump for next year. The reason is the hit from covid was spread over 3 years not 1 (2023 being y3). It’ll go up somewhere between another $5-15MM or so above that next year, to get back to where it should’ve been, or somewhere between $250-260MM in 2024. Read OTC explanation here.

• Then another 10% is now another ~$25MM on top of that ($275-285MM) for 2025.
• 10% more than that = another ~$28MM ($303-313MM) for 2026.
• 10% more than that = another ~$30MM ($330-340MM) for 2027.

Whatever the exact % increase is from one year to the next, It’ll take ~4 years from now to go up more than $100MM, not a decade. Not anywhere near a decade. Again, that would be about a 4% annual increase, not 10%.

Then there’s your contract length. The Jets aren’t signing him to another 6 years. It’ll probably be a 4-year extension on top of his current season (his signing bonus will spread over 5 years, not just the 4, since he’ll get that the day it’s signed). I’d welcome a longer deal, but it’s not likely happening.

Even using your $27MM amount, which I think is higher than he’ll get (but we’ll find that out soon), his total cost would be $108MM new money + his current $10MM = 5 years $118MM, or $24MM/year. 

Using low cap increase estimates from above (lower than OTC predicts), and using your $27MM extension amount, he’ll be at 8.7% of the cap: $24MM avg of a $276MM avg from 2023-2027. It’s an even lower percentage of the cap if he signs for closer to $25MM, if the cap increases faster than those low estimates, or both.

And your % math is still off on Jones, but this post is long enough. 

 

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Facts debates like my wife.

”Dear, here’s a scholarly paper, video evidence, and a signed affidavit from the preeminent expert in the field supporting my position…”

”You’re an ahole!”

[GreenFish]

Deleted. Misread post. 

[Cyberjet]

What’s amazing about all this is that QW is under contract. 

[bla bla bla]

7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Your math is off by so much and you’re even saying so without realizing it.

To take 10 years to increase $100MM is a 4% per year increase from the current starting point, not 10%. Even forgetting compounding interest for a second, your math suggests the cap is currently $100MM for $10MM/yr to represent a 10%/year increase.

A 10% increase of $225MM is $22.5MM, not $10MM = $247.5MM. That’s just for 2024. Except it ignores the built-in bump for next year. The reason is the hit from covid was spread over 3 years not 1 (2023 being y3). It’ll go up somewhere between another $5-15MM or so above that next year, to get back to where it should’ve been, or somewhere between $250-260MM in 2024. Read OTC explanation here.

• Then another 10% is now another ~$25MM on top of that ($275-285MM) for 2025.
• 10% more than that = another ~$28MM ($303-313MM) for 2026.
• 10% more than that = another ~$30MM ($330-340MM) for 2027.

Whatever the exact % increase is from one year to the next, It’ll take ~4 years from now to go up more than $100MM, not a decade. Not anywhere near a decade. Again, that would be about a 4% annual increase, not 10%.

Then there’s your contract length. The Jets aren’t signing him to another 6 years. It’ll probably be a 4-year extension on top of his current season (his signing bonus will spread over 5 years, not just the 4, since he’ll get that the day it’s signed). I’d welcome a longer deal, but it’s not likely happening.

Even using your $27MM amount, which I think is higher than he’ll get (but we’ll find that out soon), his total cost would be $108MM new money + his current $10MM = 5 years $118MM, or $24MM/year. 

Using low cap increase estimates from above (lower than OTC predicts), and using your $27MM extension amount, he’ll be at 8.7% of the cap: $24MM avg of a $276MM avg from 2023-2027. It’s an even lower percentage of the cap if he signs for closer to $25MM, if the cap increases faster than those low estimates, or both.

And your % math is still off on Jones, but this post is long enough. 

This was really well put. This also assumes there won't be any void years, which would also drive down the cap %'s per year.

[More Cowbell]

15 hours ago, Facts said:

And yeah, Q is much better than their guy but the point is SMART teams don't pay an interior d-linemen over 10% of the cap.

This is what JD should be telling Q right now:

Here is the thing. The D is much better with Q on it than not. That means he is a difference maker. He needs to be on this team if we are loading up for a run at the championship. That is the goal right now. I have no problem paying him 25 Million if that is what it takes. The extra 5 million you are complaining about won't amount to a hill of beans in two years. The one thing Douglas has been flawless at is contracts. 

[whodeawhodat]

guys needs to change his user name from facts to exaggerations 

[Sammybighead]

You pay Q as if he's a top 3 DT in the league, because that's what he is.

You also keep and pay your best players, regardless of position group. 

This argument of some self imposed standard of spending based on position group average around the league is stupid. If you had Ed Reed in your safety group and had to overspend at that position to keep him, you do it cause Reed is a HoF level talent. And that's with this regime CLEARY under valuing the safety group in mind. 

And yes, based on Qs recent trajectory, he has HOF potential.  Not saying he will be, but even if he's fringe, you don't let this level of players walk. 

[Facts]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

Facts debates like my wife.

”Dear, here’s a scholarly paper, video evidence, and a signed affidavit from the preeminent expert in the field supporting my position…”

”You’re an ahole!”

I'm the top line.

The rest of you are the bottom.

[Facts]

11 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Your math is off by so much and you’re even saying so without realizing it.

My math is perfectly fine. Your wording was off.

11 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

To take 10 years to increase $100MM is a 4% per year increase from the current starting point, not 10%.

You never said from the starting point.

You just added that now.

Your entire post is built around refuting a premise that you made up because you didn't describe what you were meaning, accurately.

11 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Whatever the exact % increase is from one year to the next, It’ll take ~4 years from now to go up more than $100MM, not a decade. Not anywhere near a decade. Again, that would be about a 4% annual increase, not 10%.

Again, you're just making up percentages.

Let's look at historical figures, shall we?

2013-2023: Went from $124M to $225M ($101M increase increase in a decade)

2003 to 2013: Went from $75M to $124M ($49M increase in a decade)

1994 (first year) to 2003: Went from $34M to $75M ($41M increase in a decade)

Now, how about percentages over the last two decade?

2013-2023: 81.5% increase in a decade (8.1% per year over a 10 year basis - not compounded)

2003 to 2013: 65.3% increase in a decade (6.5% per year over a 10 year basis - not compounded)

The salary cap has gone up an average of 7.3% per year, on a 10 year basis, over the past two decades.

So when I said it goes up about 10% per year, I was OVERESTIMATING. 

It's actually LOWER than that.

But, Facts, what about compounding?

The NFL Salary cap doesnt compound on a fixed rate. It doesnt work that way, which is why you use decade averages to get a good estimate.

If you want to look at compounding for the fun of it, you will see a much lower percentage.

For example, over the last 15 years, the NFL salary has compounded at only 4.5% per season. 

Applying these standards to the current cap:

The average increase over the last two decades, per year, was 7.3%.

Which means, in 5 years from now (just guessing on length of Q's contract), the cap will be at $307.1M.

7.3% x 5 years = 36.5% 

36.5% increase over $225M is $307.1M.

Applying this to the contract Q is reported to want.

Q wants $25-30M per season.

If we take the middle of those two numbers, we have $27.5M per season.

To get to the 8% you and I talked about with Jones contract, the salary cap has to be ABOVE $343M.

$27,500,0000 / 0.08 = $343,750,000

We would never reach that, as explained to you before.

In fact, he would only get under 10% in the FINAL YEAR of his contract.

The entirety of the contract would be 10% or MORE.

11 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Then there’s your contract length. The Jets aren’t signing him to another 6 years. It’ll probably be a 4-year extension

A four year contract makes it even worse.

7.3% average increase x 4 = 29.2%

29.2% increase over $225M is $291M

Which, again, means ONLY IN THE FINAL YEAR of his contract, will he get below 10%.

The entire value of the contract would be 10% or more and there is zero chance he ever gets to Jones 8% number.

11 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Even using your $27MM amount, which I think is higher than he’ll get (but we’ll find that out soon), his total cost would be $108MM new money + his current $10MM 

Any time you have to conflate new money with current contract, you know the math is being purposefully manipulated. We are talking new contract here.

You want to tack on the rookie contract final year to spread the monstrosity of a stupid contract over another year with a cheap base. Sorry, but no.

We get Q this year at his cheap rate whether we sign him or not. 

In fact, as mentioned multiple times by yours truly in another thread, what we SHOULD do is:

2023: Let him play out his rookie deal at $9.5M (see if he can even duplicate what he did in 2022)

2024: If he has another great year, non-exclusive franchise tag him at $20.8M

2025: If he has another great, tag him again at $24.9M

With this method, we have him until he is almost 30, at a cost of only $55.2M

That is only 7.5% of the cap. A perfect number to be at for IDL.

And don't run the risk of a Haynesworth situation.

11 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Using low cap increase estimates from above (lower than OTC predicts), and using your $27MM extension amount, he’ll be at 8.7% of the cap:

This is not correct.

[Facts]

1 hour ago, More Cowbell said:

Here is the thing. The D is much better with Q on it than not. 

No doubt about that.

The house was much cleaner with my wife, too.

But it was too expensive to keep her.

[playtowinthegame]

17 hours ago, Facts said:

And yeah, Q is much better than their guy but the point is SMART teams don't pay an interior d-linemen over 10% of the cap.

This is what JD should be telling Q right now:

 

[Butterfield]

Trade him.  

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

16 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You realize he didn’t just sign it, right?

When he signed it, $20MM was more than 10% of the cap. 

This is what this idiot called facts doesn't get... Sapp would get 15% of the cap in this time.

[More Cowbell]

44 minutes ago, Facts said:

No doubt about that.

The house was much cleaner with my wife, too.

But it was too expensive to keep her.

Ok, That was a horrible thing to say about your wife and if money is what you equate to someone you are supposed to be in love with, it would explain a lot about your feelings towards Q. 

[Facts]

6 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Ok, That was a horrible thing to say about your wife and if money is what you equate to someone you are supposed to be in love with, it would explain a lot about your feelings towards Q. 

It's just business with Q.

Fans get too wrapped up in their emotions and dont look at the long term.

Belichick would never pay an interior d-linemen over 10% of his cap (over the contract). Because he is smart and knows football.