2024 a QB-rich draft

[derp]

15 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Yeah I don't really buy the whole "developing QBs" thing.  CJ Stroud is proof to me that some prospects are just meant to be good NFL QBs, while many aren't.  If you want to say that they are incapable of choosing the right guy, then sure.  No regime has chosen the right guy outside of whoever was running things back when Namath became a Jet.  Perhaps you can add Pennington to that list.  Like do we think that if Lawrence and Zach switched teams back in '21, nothing would have changed for each team?  I highly doubt it.  That said, taking a guy like Caleb or Maye seems a lot less risky than letting JD choose between JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix, etc.  Chances are whoever we choose from that second tier will follow the Jet tradition of falling on their face.  But drafting Caleb and sticking him behind Rodgers for a year?  I'll buy that we can't develop QBs if he fails in that scenario.  

 

Also not big on tearing it down win or lose in 2 years.  Most of this team's best players were drafted within the last 2 or 3 years.  Overall this team's core is still extremely young.  Better plan would be to draft your QB of the future in '24(ideally) or '25 and have him ready to take over for Rodgers as early as 2025.  Try to compete while your QB is on his rookie deal, which should allow you to pay/keep your top players.

 

From what I'm hearing Arizona is pretty committed to Kyler, and he's looked pretty good post-injury.  I think if the Bears go Caleb 1, yeah there's no shot of moving up.  Arizona won't trade out, they'll just take Marvin Harrison, and then New England takes Maye.  Both QBs gone by pick 3.  If Chicago still believe in Fields though, I think they take Harrison and then Arizona trades out.  If that happens I think we still need to be around pick 5 or 6 to even be a contender there.  Even then a team like the Giants could offer up a 2nd this year which we obviously can't match.  If they're sitting around pick 9 or 10 though, and we're at pick 5, that might still give us an advantage even if we're only offering our 2025 1st.  Add in that they'd be sending Caleb out of the conference.  

 

Either way it wouldn't be make or break for me if it's not possible, just something we should absolutely be looking into.  Worst case you stay put and take a kid like Alt or even move down, pick up a 2nd and take one of those RTs like Latham/Fuaga and then maybe a WR round 2.  Or get swirly and just take Daniels who seems to be flying up draft boards.  Either way, this pick will be interesting.  No matter what, this offseason we need to walk away with a high-end OT, a #2 WR, and our QB of the future.  IMO, at least.  

Given contract situations, not hitting reset at quarterback would be a massive mistake for Arizona and for Chicago. We can speculate all you’d like but I stand by the post you quoted. It’s a lot of mental gymnastics for a pipe dream scenario.

As for your last sentence, that’s a big ask for a GM who in four offseasons has put together an offense that needs all of those things (and more).

[bonkertons]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Given contract situations, not hitting reset at quarterback would be a massive mistake for Arizona and for Chicago. We can speculate all you’d like but I stand by the post you quoted. It’s a lot of mental gymnastics for a pipe dream scenario.

As for your last sentence, that’s a big ask for a GM who in four offseasons has put together an offense that needs all of those things (and more).

Mental gymnastics?  I just said if it's not possible, so be it.  We should just be on the phone asking about the price no matter what.  But yeah at least one of those teams will not take a QB.  Whether or not they trade out is another story, but I'll gladly wager on it if they do finish 1-2 in the draft.  

 

As far as the second bit, they need to address those positions.  Whether or not they choose the right guys, we won't know until the season starts.  Really not looking to get into another "these guys suck/no they're good" argument with you though.  I think we both can agree they'll target those positions.  Whether or not they target the right guys is the only thing that remains to be seen. 

[derp]

14 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Mental gymnastics?  I just said if it's not possible, so be it.  We should just be on the phone asking about the price no matter what.  But yeah at least one of those teams will not take a QB.  Whether or not they trade out is another story, but I'll gladly wager on it if they do finish 1-2 in the draft.  

 

As far as the second bit, they need to address those positions.  Whether or not they choose the right guys, we won't know until the season starts.  Really not looking to get into another "these guys suck/no they're good" argument with you though.  I think we both can agree they'll target those positions.  Whether or not they target the right guys is the only thing that remains to be seen. 

I think you want to know the price of picks regardless, that’s standard organizational practice. 

They need to address a lot of positions. I’m not sure they’ll address all of the ones you mentioned or even try to. Tackle is kind of a must but the others could easily get hand waved. I think they should absolutely address WR and QB somehow but I’m not convinced they will.

[BCJet]

On 11/28/2023 at 7:10 AM, derp said:

My issue with McCarthy is he really hasn’t been asked to do all that much - Michigan is still a run first team. Nothing wrong with that, they’re undefeated, but it doesn’t give a great window into whether he can carry an offense.

He’s going to go in the first because of the talent and winning games in college, and because of that the expectation will be that he can be a do everything franchise guy. But then you’re finding out if he can take on a bigger role a level up.

Think he’s best off going into a very solid situation and sitting a little. It’d be interesting if a team goes and gets him for that - but even so his college career a little different than the guys I’m thinking of who’ve had success in that way (Mahomes, Allen, Jackson). Think he’s more Dak/Russell Wilson tier in terms of needing things around him.

I actually like that McCarthy hasnt been asked to do too much - thats exactly what good NFL QBs do, they protect the football and then are called on to make big time throws when the team needs them too.  

To me, the fact that McCarthy has learned how to actually play the position while in college vs someone like Zach who is as talented as McCarthy but simply ran around and made plays that are  not reflective of what will happen in the pros, is exactly why I like him as a prospect.  

I also dont understand the "I dont buy into developing QBs."  Do you really think its beneficial for a QB to make a huge jump in competition while getting essentially zero time to actually practice?  The time spend from when a QB goes to the combine, then pro-day, then draft, then minicamp then training camp gives them hardly any time to reset any bad habits from college and simply improve as a QB with respect to footwork, timing, etc.

Are there outliers absolutely, but I cant see any scenario where I wouldnt want at QB to sit as a rookie.

[derp]

28 minutes ago, BCJet said:

I actually like that McCarthy hasnt been asked to do too much - thats exactly what good NFL QBs do, they protect the football and then are called on to make big time throws when the team needs them too.  

To me, the fact that McCarthy has learned how to actually play the position while in college vs someone like Zach who is as talented as McCarthy but simply ran around and made plays that are  not reflective of what will happen in the pros, is exactly why I like him as a prospect.  

I also dont understand the "I dont buy into developing QBs."  Do you really think its beneficial for a QB to make a huge jump in competition while getting essentially zero time to actually practice?  The time spend from when a QB goes to the combine, then pro-day, then draft, then minicamp then training camp gives them hardly any time to reset any bad habits from college and simply improve as a QB with respect to footwork, timing, etc.

Are there outliers absolutely, but I cant see any scenario where I wouldnt want at QB to sit as a rookie.

What good NFL QB's had that track record in college? 

I didn't like Wilson as a prospect.

Not sure where the last two paragraphs are coming from. I think somebody else said that.

[maury77]

51 minutes ago, derp said:

What good NFL QB's had that track record in college? 

I didn't like Wilson as a prospect.

Not sure where the last two paragraphs are coming from. I think somebody else said that.

Not many recently, but I'm sure if you go back to the 90s and earlier (when college wasn't as pass happy) you would see some examples. 

[derp]

26 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Not many recently, but I'm sure if you go back to the 90s and earlier (when college wasn't as pass happy) you would see some examples. 

For sure, but I think the pros weren’t as pass happy either and the position was different. 

[Chrebetfan80]

14 hours ago, derp said:

For sure, but I think the pros weren’t as pass happy either and the position was different. 

Everyone I know is split on McCarthy.  I think if you take him you sit him for a little and let him learn.  Physically he's got a lot to like (even though he's a little thin).  The problem is where would he go?  I'm not willing to take that chance in developing a guy if he's the 17th overall pick.  Now second round?  Id jump all over McCarthy and not look back.  Kids the real deal in terms of character, intangibles, arm strength and mobility. Pre draft process is going to be really big for him but I do expect him to be a top 20ish pick.  

[derp]

2 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Everyone I know is split on McCarthy.  I think if you take him you sit him for a little and let him learn.  Physically he's got a lot to like (even though he's a little thin).  The problem is where would he go?  I'm not willing to take that chance in developing a guy if he's the 17th overall pick.  Now second round?  Id jump all over McCarthy and not look back.  Kids the real deal in terms of character, intangibles, arm strength and mobility. Pre draft process is going to be really big for him but I do expect him to be a top 20ish pick.  

I agree with all of that. To me you’re drafting and hoping for him to be a game manager plus whose upside is dependent on his situation - not a legit top of the league quarterback.

He’s different but I think the ceiling is good Russell Wilson adjacent. Not going to want to let him cook but if you give him a run game, receivers, and a defense that can win some stuff for you. There’s a place to take that - it’s a little hard to peg. But day two I’d be very comfortable.

I just don’t think he goes there - and with being a first round pick comes a while different set of expectations that I just don’t think are fair for him.

[Adoni Beast]

It’s a real shame that we’ll probably be picking top 10 and there will be a few good QBs still on the board and we’ll have about a 0% chance of drafting a QB due to Rodgers.

The only chance we’ll have is if we have a massive free agency signing spree that fixes OL + WR

[Chrebetfan80]

16 hours ago, derp said:

I agree with all of that. To me you’re drafting and hoping for him to be a game manager plus whose upside is dependent on his situation - not a legit top of the league quarterback.

He’s different but I think the ceiling is good Russell Wilson adjacent. Not going to want to let him cook but if you give him a run game, receivers, and a defense that can win some stuff for you. There’s a place to take that - it’s a little hard to peg. But day two I’d be very comfortable.

I just don’t think he goes there - and with being a first round pick comes a while different set of expectations that I just don’t think are fair for him.

I figured id save the QB talk for this thread. 

First on McCarthy before talking about the senior class at QB.  

What makes McCarthy interesting is he has an elite set of physical abilities.  Kid doesnt get to show it a ton but he has a nuke for an arm and can throw from multiple platforms (I know people on the team there that rave about his arm) He has plus mobility and will test well there.  He's going to wow some people in the draft process with his arm which will make you dream of top end potential.  The problem with alot of his film is that you dont really get a chance to see it.  Not consistently at least.  and part of that is due to his inconsistency as a QB and the other on Michigans offense. 

 

As for your comment about the senior class of QB.  I completely agree.  To me grabbing a guy with more starting experience and then sitting them behind rodgers is the way to go if we do draft a QB.  While controversial as a player, Bo Nix fits that bill, as does guys like Grayson McCall (although he just entered the transfer portal so who knows),  Michael Pratt, Sam Hartman (he'd be such a sex icon in NY) and even McCarthy.  All have good starting experience. 

[derp]

44 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I figured id save the QB talk for this thread. 

First on McCarthy before talking about the senior class at QB.  

What makes McCarthy interesting is he has an elite set of physical abilities.  Kid doesnt get to show it a ton but he has a nuke for an arm and can throw from multiple platforms (I know people on the team there that rave about his arm) He has plus mobility and will test well there.  He's going to wow some people in the draft process with his arm which will make you dream of top end potential.  The problem with alot of his film is that you dont really get a chance to see it.  Not consistently at least.  and part of that is due to his inconsistency as a QB and the other on Michigans offense. 

 

As for your comment about the senior class of QB.  I completely agree.  To me grabbing a guy with more starting experience and then sitting them behind rodgers is the way to go if we do draft a QB.  While controversial as a player, Bo Nix fits that bill, as does guys like Grayson McCall (although he just entered the transfer portal so who knows),  Michael Pratt, Sam Hartman (he'd be such a sex icon in NY) and even McCarthy.  All have good starting experience. 

Yeah, I suppose with McCarthy it could be there. I know he’s toolsy (albeit lean). The argument there could be that Harbaugh is going to go run first if he can win that way and they haven’t had to deviate. It’s just really hard to dream on that upside when someone hasn’t shown it a level down from the pros. He’s definitely a talent - it’s just hard for me to wrap my head around him being a home run swing and in this day and age I think that’s what you want in the first. The lean frame plays into it a little too, it’s just hard to see that standout trait you can hang your hat on.

I’m with you on the QB class too. I liked what I saw from Pratt before this season a bit. We’ll see. It’s going to be an interesting offseason.

[Augustiniak]

24 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, I suppose with McCarthy it could be there. I know he’s toolsy (albeit lean). The argument there could be that Harbaugh is going to go run first if he can win that way and they haven’t had to deviate. It’s just really hard to dream on that upside when someone hasn’t shown it a level down from the pros. He’s definitely a talent - it’s just hard for me to wrap my head around him being a home run swing and in this day and age I think that’s what you want in the first. The lean frame plays into it a little too, it’s just hard to see that standout trait you can hang your hat on.

I’m with you on the QB class too. I liked what I saw from Pratt before this season a bit. We’ll see. It’s going to be an interesting offseason.

There was a quote the other day from saleh, something about what characteristics they should look for in qbs.  I think that will impact who they take.  They’re probably going to do the opposite of what they did with wilson, looking for a guy wiht a lot more tape, a guy who is more mature, more of a leader, with a higher floor as opposed to a higher ceiling.  So i would think it leans the way of a guy like pratt, rather than a guy like mccarthy, esp. b/c they’re not using a first on a qb next season.  

[Chrebetfan80]

34 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, I suppose with McCarthy it could be there. I know he’s toolsy (albeit lean). The argument there could be that Harbaugh is going to go run first if he can win that way and they haven’t had to deviate. It’s just really hard to dream on that upside when someone hasn’t shown it a level down from the pros. He’s definitely a talent - it’s just hard for me to wrap my head around him being a home run swing and in this day and age I think that’s what you want in the first. The lean frame plays into it a little too, it’s just hard to see that standout trait you can hang your hat on.

I’m with you on the QB class too. I liked what I saw from Pratt before this season a bit. We’ll see. It’s going to be an interesting offseason.

and there in lies the rub with his evaluation.  That is the argument that everyone is having either in favor or against JJ McCarthy.   On paper you look at the kid and say WOW talent ability wise this kids a top 20 pick.  Cannon, Throws from multiple angles, whip like release, reported 4.5 40 speed, trained by a great QB coach, winning player. starting experience. 

But you havent seen them win on the back of his arm yet.  Its blake corrum and that running game that is the highlight of everything they do.  So who knows. 

 

Its an interesting class. and while its got some star studded talent up top, it may be one of the higher floor classes we've seen in a while.  I think alot of those guys in the right situation are really long term backups in the league.  

[Jets Voice of Reason]

4 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I figured id save the QB talk for this thread. 

First on McCarthy before talking about the senior class at QB.  

What makes McCarthy interesting is he has an elite set of physical abilities.  Kid doesnt get to show it a ton but he has a nuke for an arm and can throw from multiple platforms (I know people on the team there that rave about his arm) He has plus mobility and will test well there.  He's going to wow some people in the draft process with his arm which will make you dream of top end potential.  The problem with alot of his film is that you dont really get a chance to see it.  Not consistently at least.  and part of that is due to his inconsistency as a QB and the other on Michigans offense. 

 

As for your comment about the senior class of QB.  I completely agree.  To me grabbing a guy with more starting experience and then sitting them behind rodgers is the way to go if we do draft a QB.  While controversial as a player, Bo Nix fits that bill, as does guys like Grayson McCall (although he just entered the transfer portal so who knows),  Michael Pratt, Sam Hartman (he'd be such a sex icon in NY) and even McCarthy.  All have good starting experience. 

Grayson mccall would've been a guy I'd like later, but man, does he forever want to be in college? I'm shocked he has eligibility left.

[Chrebetfan80]

1 hour ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Grayson mccall would've been a guy I'd like later, but man, does he forever want to be in college? I'm shocked he has eligibility left.

Yea I was shocked when I saw it.  He's a redshirt senior i believe.  It may be a situation like DJ where he entered the portal but is also mulling over the draft.  

I think McCall is going to get some really good transfer offers though so we'll see where he ends up.  Riley from duke I believe is going to transfer to ND as well.

[BCJet]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:36 AM, Chrebetfan80 said:

and there in lies the rub with his evaluation.  That is the argument that everyone is having either in favor or against JJ McCarthy.   On paper you look at the kid and say WOW talent ability wise this kids a top 20 pick.  Cannon, Throws from multiple angles, whip like release, reported 4.5 40 speed, trained by a great QB coach, winning player. starting experience. 

But you havent seen them win on the back of his arm yet.  Its blake corrum and that running game that is the highlight of everything they do.  So who knows. 

 

Its an interesting class. and while its got some star studded talent up top, it may be one of the higher floor classes we've seen in a while.  I think alot of those guys in the right situation are really long term backups in the league.  

I dont get the long term backup story on this draft.  Of course there will be a bust, there always is, but when have we ever had this many ultra talented QBs who have NFL size and happen to also have a ton of starting experience? 

In 2023 Anthony Richardson had 1 year of up and down play as a starter.  Bryce Young was the smallest QB essentially every drafted and both went in the top 5.  

2022 isnt even worth discussing

2021 after Lawerence, Trey Lance and Zach had elite physical talent but Lance had very little starting experience and zach never really played against elite competition.  Mac had experience but limited physical skills.

You have to go to back to 2020 with Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Jordan Love who all had a lot of starting experience combined with excellent physical skills and all of whom look really good, aside from Love who at least seems like an interesting case.

This year we have 6 guys who have both starting experience and elite physical skills.

1a/1b Caleb has 2.5 years and Maye has 2 full years as starters along with having some combination of elite arm/size/skills for the position.

Next tier (no point in trying to put these guys in order)

• Bo Nix - 2nd overall ranked QB out of HS, started for essentially 4 years, is mobile and has more then enough arm to go with elite stats (my second choice to learn behind rogers).
• McCarthy - elite athlete coming into Michigan, 2 full years of starting in a pro offense, elite arm.  Missing the stats which I dont think is a negative given his offense and (hopefully) what hes been taught plus he is only 20 (my first choice to learn behind rogers).
• McDaniels - Started at ASU and added 2 full years at LSU along with a skill set that is close to Anthony Richardson who didnt even come close to the production
• Pennix - 2 full years of elite production at Washington along with a great arm (on top of his experience at Indiana). Injury questions but has the experience and skill set.

Do we normally get a class like this?  All these guys have played against power 5 competition, have NFL size and arm strength, have won games and have experience.  Plus Nix, McDaniels and Pennix (and to a minor extent McCarthy_they all had to fight through adversity during their career.  Doesnt this seem like an ideal year to pick a QB especially since we can develop one of these guys under Rogers?

Not only will we be able to pick a legit prospect in the 6-10 range but next year there are pretty much 2 guys in Ewers and Beck (both of whom would be first rounders any other year yet decided to return to school to be top 5 picks next year) and if rogers is healthy for even 8-10 games we wont be anywhere near able to pick them.  

I think this is an elite class and the absolute perfect time to pick a QB.

[Chrebetfan80]

11 hours ago, BCJet said:

I dont get the long term backup story on this draft.  Of course there will be a bust, there always is, but when have we ever had this many ultra talented QBs who have NFL size and happen to also have a ton of starting experience? 

In 2023 Anthony Richardson had 1 year of up and down play as a starter.  Bryce Young was the smallest QB essentially every drafted and both went in the top 5.  

2022 isnt even worth discussing

2021 after Lawerence, Trey Lance and Zach had elite physical talent but Lance had very little starting experience and zach never really played against elite competition.  Mac had experience but limited physical skills.

You have to go to back to 2020 with Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Jordan Love who all had a lot of starting experience combined with excellent physical skills and all of whom look really good, aside from Love who at least seems like an interesting case.

This year we have 6 guys who have both starting experience and elite physical skills.

1a/1b Caleb has 2.5 years and Maye has 2 full years as starters along with having some combination of elite arm/size/skills for the position.

Next tier (no point in trying to put these guys in order)

• Bo Nix - 2nd overall ranked QB out of HS, started for essentially 4 years, is mobile and has more then enough arm to go with elite stats (my second choice to learn behind rogers).
• McCarthy - elite athlete coming into Michigan, 2 full years of starting in a pro offense, elite arm.  Missing the stats which I dont think is a negative given his offense and (hopefully) what hes been taught plus he is only 20 (my first choice to learn behind rogers).
• McDaniels - Started at ASU and added 2 full years at LSU along with a skill set that is close to Anthony Richardson who didnt even come close to the production
• Pennix - 2 full years of elite production at Washington along with a great arm (on top of his experience at Indiana). Injury questions but has the experience and skill set.

Do we normally get a class like this?  All these guys have played against power 5 competition, have NFL size and arm strength, have won games and have experience.  Plus Nix, McDaniels and Pennix (and to a minor extent McCarthy_they all had to fight through adversity during their career.  Doesnt this seem like an ideal year to pick a QB especially since we can develop one of these guys under Rogers?

Not only will we be able to pick a legit prospect in the 6-10 range but next year there are pretty much 2 guys in Ewers and Beck (both of whom would be first rounders any other year yet decided to return to school to be top 5 picks next year) and if rogers is healthy for even 8-10 games we wont be anywhere near able to pick them.  

I think this is an elite class and the absolute perfect time to pick a QB.

I think you missed my point a little.  I'm saying that the FLOOR for this group is probably all long term high level backups.  Not like the Lawrence year where everyone was saying it was one of the best qb classes in a while, the floor of those QB's (as we've unfortunately seen) was very low. 

This group as you pointed out has too many great intangibles in terms of physical ability and experience that make them at worst probably good backups in the league and many of them have the ability to be high level starters. 

This isnt even taking into account guys like Sam Hartman and Michael Pratt who can have nice careers in the league and will go in the mid rounds probably.  

I agree this would be a perfect year to pick a qb especially because you finally are in a situation where you can sit them for what we hope is 2-3 years.  However, if the edict is to WIN NOW then it will be hard given how poor the OL has been to pass up what may be our pick of Tackles. 

[BCJet]

1 hour ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I think you missed my point a little.  I'm saying that the FLOOR for this group is probably all long term high level backups.  Not like the Lawrence year where everyone was saying it was one of the best qb classes in a while, the floor of those QB's (as we've unfortunately seen) was very low. 

This group as you pointed out has too many great intangibles in terms of physical ability and experience that make them at worst probably good backups in the league and many of them have the ability to be high level starters. 

This isnt even taking into account guys like Sam Hartman and Michael Pratt who can have nice careers in the league and will go in the mid rounds probably.  

I agree this would be a perfect year to pick a qb especially because you finally are in a situation where you can sit them for what we hope is 2-3 years.  However, if the edict is to WIN NOW then it will be hard given how poor the OL has been to pass up what may be our pick of Tackles. 

Got it - I understand what you were saying and completely agree.  Interestingly enough I was going to add Hartman and Pratt to the list as they should also be backups.  I was particularly interested in Hartman this year and feel like he really disappointed.  Hes a tough kid who really seemed to play well at Wake Forest but then struggled a lot this year altough I didnt watch ND closely enough to see if it was just him or the supporting cast.

[Chrebetfan80]

6 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Got it - I understand what you were saying and completely agree.  Interestingly enough I was going to add Hartman and Pratt to the list as they should also be backups.  I was particularly interested in Hartman this year and feel like he really disappointed.  Hes a tough kid who really seemed to play well at Wake Forest but then struggled a lot this year altough I didnt watch ND closely enough to see if it was just him or the supporting cast.

Hartman is just average thats really the problem.  Super tough uber competitive kid, you gotta love his makeup as a player.  A lot alot of starting experience.   

But end of the day he has an average to below average maybe even arm. You watch ND play during the year, he's floating balls all over the place.  Couple that with being almost exactly 6'1 and 210 and will be 25 coming out, he's just average all around in everything.... except the looks department, elite level hair, beard, and jawline. 

To me, he may end up like Chase Daniels.  He'll be in the league for a long time because he can process well, and is accurate, but he's not special enough to be a long term high level starter.    I think in the right situation he is a low level starter, or a high level backup. 

[#27TheDominator]

On 11/29/2023 at 10:07 AM, bonkertons said:

Mental gymnastics?  I just said if it's not possible, so be it.  We should just be on the phone asking about the price no matter what.  But yeah at least one of those teams will not take a QB.  Whether or not they trade out is another story, but I'll gladly wager on it if they do finish 1-2 in the draft.  

 

As far as the second bit, they need to address those positions.  Whether or not they choose the right guys, we won't know until the season starts.  Really not looking to get into another "these guys suck/no they're good" argument with you though.  I think we both can agree they'll target those positions.  Whether or not they target the right guys is the only thing that remains to be seen. 

I get targeting QB, T and WR, but you said they "need" to come away with a high end tackle, #2 WR and QB of the future.  That is actually insanity.  Right now they have #6, #72 and #103 and you literally are talking about two obvious high firsts and what is probably a day one or two pick for a #2 WR.  To top it off, your talking about moving up.  How the **** are you supposed to draft a high end T and #2 WR if you move up?  You including free agency?  

[Chrebetfan80]

We all know who the top 3 guys are going to be.  Looks like by the end of this Williams, Maye, and Daniels will all be top 10 picks (or close to it in Daniels case)

Then it becomes how much do teams believe in Bo Nix, how much do teams feel comfortable with Penix injury histroy, and how many teams buy into McCarthy's physical tools translating over what we've seen. out of the 3?  I see McCarthy and Nix being the biggest risers in the predraft process.  They'll show out during the combine.  I am almost positive Nix will throw too, the kid wants to compete.  Either way I could see a world where all 3 are first round picks and I can see a world where Mccarthy goes 20 something and the other 2 fall to round 2.  

So where does that leave the Jets?  Unless they lose out and get a top 3 pick, they are almost assuredly out of the range of Williams or Maye.   So how highly do they have Daniels rated over guys like MHJ or the top tackles?  Probably not higher than either of the top guys at OT if im guessing. 

So we probably end up looking at Mid to late round guys.   

These are the guys, in no particular order, who will probably be available in the 3rd or later:

Spencer Rattler

Same Hartman

Michael Pratt

Joe Milton

Jordan Travis

Not the most inspiring bunch, but there is some raw talent here that maybe after 3 years of working under rodgers you could strike gold with.   Milton has an absolute nuke for an arm, and elite size (6'5 235)  could he be someone you take and let learn under rodgers?  Jordan Travis isnt the biggest guy in the world at only like 6'1 200 lbs but he showed a lot of ability this season and will drop due to the injury, maybe he's a guy you let ride out.   

I personally hate spencer rattler, think he's a punk, id stay away.  

Sam Hartman is a career backup most likely. 

And Michael Pratt I think has a good shot to develop into something.  He just may never be special, but he certainly has the size, and makeup you look for.  He may end up a better than average starter, and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle ala brock purdy. 

 

[derp]

33 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

We all know who the top 3 guys are going to be.  Looks like by the end of this Williams, Maye, and Daniels will all be top 10 picks (or close to it in Daniels case)

Then it becomes how much do teams believe in Bo Nix, how much do teams feel comfortable with Penix injury histroy, and how many teams buy into McCarthy's physical tools translating over what we've seen. out of the 3?  I see McCarthy and Nix being the biggest risers in the predraft process.  They'll show out during the combine.  I am almost positive Nix will throw too, the kid wants to compete.  Either way I could see a world where all 3 are first round picks and I can see a world where Mccarthy goes 20 something and the other 2 fall to round 2.  

So where does that leave the Jets?  Unless they lose out and get a top 3 pick, they are almost assuredly out of the range of Williams or Maye.   So how highly do they have Daniels rated over guys like MHJ or the top tackles?  Probably not higher than either of the top guys at OT if im guessing. 

So we probably end up looking at Mid to late round guys.   

These are the guys, in no particular order, who will probably be available in the 3rd or later:

Spencer Rattler

Same Hartman

Michael Pratt

Joe Milton

Jordan Travis

Not the most inspiring bunch, but there is some raw talent here that maybe after 3 years of working under rodgers you could strike gold with.   Milton has an absolute nuke for an arm, and elite size (6'5 235)  could he be someone you take and let learn under rodgers?  Jordan Travis isnt the biggest guy in the world at only like 6'1 200 lbs but he showed a lot of ability this season and will drop due to the injury, maybe he's a guy you let ride out.   

I personally hate spencer rattler, think he's a punk, id stay away.  

Sam Hartman is a career backup most likely. 

And Michael Pratt I think has a good shot to develop into something.  He just may never be special, but he certainly has the size, and makeup you look for.  He may end up a better than average starter, and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle ala brock purdy. 

 

This strikes me as a year the Jets miss the forest through the trees. Win a game at minimum and miss on Harrison. Take Alt/Fashanu to shore up the OL and go for it with Rodgers. Pass on Daniels because the timeline doesn’t work nicely with Rodgers and Wilson.

Tackle ends up above average but not elite and doesn’t move the needle. Line still plays poorly because they’re below average at other spots. Still need more skill talent. Daniels becomes a star. Or if we want to make the parallel to what year was it, 2017, maybe they take a non premium guy (Bowers) who’s excellent but can’t play well enough to justify a contract that lives up to being a top ten pick because of positional value - and pass on an elite QB in the process.

I do really like the idea of Pratt and Travis wouldn’t be bad either. Seems like a good class to come away with QB/OT/WR but I think they’ll fall short at two of those spots.

[Chrebetfan80]

10 minutes ago, derp said:

This strikes me as a year the Jets miss the forest through the trees. Win a game at minimum and miss on Harrison. Take Alt/Fashanu to shore up the OL and go for it with Rodgers. Pass on Daniels because the timeline doesn’t work nicely with Rodgers and Wilson.

Tackle ends up above average but not elite and doesn’t move the needle. Line still plays poorly because they’re below average at other spots. Still need more skill talent. Daniels becomes a star. Or if we want to make the parallel to what year was it, 2017, maybe they take a non premium guy (Bowers) who’s excellent but can’t play well enough to justify a contract that lives up to being a top ten pick because of positional value - and pass on an elite QB in the process.

I do really like the idea of Pratt and Travis wouldn’t be bad either. Seems like a good class to come away with QB/OT/WR but I think they’ll fall short at two of those spots.

you can make the argument (and I'm sure this wont happen)  That the jets if they pick at 5 or 6 and are out of the top 2 qb race, they trade down and recoup some capital particularly in rd 2.  

This would allow you some flexibilty to grab maybe a lower level tackle in rd 1 or maybe dip into that other teir of QB's and still be able to fill some holes with good players.  

For sh*ts and giggles lets look at a proposed trade on a mock.

a quick trip to PFN's mock simulator (which has the jets picking 7th)  turned out with the top 7 picks like this:

Caleb williams, MHJ, Drake Maye, Joe Alt, Fashanu, and Bowers

Here the best tackle left is Latham out of Bama, or the top rated player on the board is Malik Nabers. 

 

If it falls like this why not make a trade?  Only trade offer was from the Bengals offering 17, 48, and a 2nd +3rd next year.

Not a bad haul.  Even trading down there were tackles available in Fuagu and Mims.  

 

 

[bonkertons]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

I get targeting QB, T and WR, but you said they "need" to come away with a high end tackle, #2 WR and QB of the future.  That is actually insanity.  Right now they have #6, #72 and #103 and you literally are talking about two obvious high firsts and what is probably a day one or two pick for a #2 WR.  To top it off, your talking about moving up.  How the **** are you supposed to draft a high end T and #2 WR if you move up?  You including free agency?  

lol I'm obviously including free agency.  I assumed that was obvious.  

[#27TheDominator]

12 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

lol I'm obviously including free agency.  I assumed that was obvious.  

You say that like there aren't tons of actually insane people here.  It will be interesting how the handle the money.  Some guys are coming off the books and there can be some savings, but still.  Rodgers deal is crazy, but presumably the money can be screwed around with.  I guess they can monkey with or dump Mosley, JFM, Tomlinson, Uzomah and Conklin for some relief.  Figure Lazard is back.  I don't want to do anything to move his money around cause he blows and if Rodgers can't make him stand up he has to go for 2025.

[derp]

17 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

you can make the argument (and I'm sure this wont happen)  That the jets if they pick at 5 or 6 and are out of the top 2 qb race, they trade down and recoup some capital particularly in rd 2.  

This would allow you some flexibilty to grab maybe a lower level tackle in rd 1 or maybe dip into that other teir of QB's and still be able to fill some holes with good players.  

For sh*ts and giggles lets look at a proposed trade on a mock.

a quick trip to PFN's mock simulator (which has the jets picking 7th)  turned out with the top 7 picks like this:

Caleb williams, MHJ, Drake Maye, Joe Alt, Fashanu, and Bowers

Here the best tackle left is Latham out of Bama, or the top rated player on the board is Malik Nabers. 

 

If it falls like this why not make a trade?  Only trade offer was from the Bengals offering 17, 48, and a 2nd +3rd next year.

Not a bad haul.  Even trading down there were tackles available in Fuagu and Mims.  

 

 

It’d obviously be nice to trade but a) we talk about this every year and it never happens and b) the the tackle situation is a little tough as I think you get more into project range outside the top few guys. I think asking a tackle to come in right away is a tough ask regardless but it gets even harder the more you move down the board.

To me, they’ve spread their assets too thin. Need too much to go right to be able to be a competitive team - this is currently one of the worst teams in football. Yeah the quarterback injury sucks and the OL’s in shambles but you’ve got a team like the Vikings that was 4-4 with Cousins and is now 2-2 with Dobbs, plus Jefferson’s hurt, and they’re competitive in all of their games. 

I think we’re coming from the same place overall - the team needs a lot, a move down would be nice. Think this offseason will end up feeling like a band aid on a bullet hole but they’re going to try to sell the team as a Super Bowl contender again. I’d love to be wrong, just think they need a reset that isn’t coming and I think they’re going to miss a nice QB opportunity with Daniels.

[Chrebetfan80]

7 minutes ago, derp said:

It’d obviously be nice to trade but a) we talk about this every year and it never happens and b) the the tackle situation is a little tough as I think you get more into project range outside the top few guys. I think asking a tackle to come in right away is a tough ask regardless but it gets even harder the more you move down the board.

To me, they’ve spread their assets too thin. Need too much to go right to be able to be a competitive team - this is currently one of the worst teams in football. Yeah the quarterback injury sucks and the OL’s in shambles but you’ve got a team like the Vikings that was 4-4 with Cousins and is now 2-2 with Dobbs, plus Jefferson’s hurt, and they’re competitive in all of their games. 

I think we’re coming from the same place overall - the team needs a lot, a move down would be nice. Think this offseason will end up feeling like a band aid on a bullet hole but they’re going to try to sell the team as a Super Bowl contender again. I’d love to be wrong, just think they need a reset that isn’t coming and I think they’re going to miss a nice QB opportunity with Daniels.

I  agree to an extent.  This year I like more than a few tackles.  Guys will move up and down boards as time goes on.  One thing you see every year is lower picked guys playing well on the offensive line.  We dont need a line of all 1st round picks in order to be successful.  I think if we can get becton to resign and he can get better, having tippman for a full year and a healthy AVT at Guard.  you may be able to take a tackle in the 2nd if you trade down and feel good about it.  

 

Again I dont think it happens. We lose out pick 3rd its probably the kid out of Penn State and we call it a day.  But to me it makes a lot more sense to move down a little try to take daniels or another QB and then get another 2nd and grab a good Guard or Tackle in the 2nd.  Wont happen, never does, JD only trades down in the later rounds seemingly.  

I do agree though we can get a good qb in this draft and finally have the unique opportunity to let them sit behind a true HOF. 

[bonkertons]

19 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

You say that like there aren't tons of actually insane people here.  It will be interesting how the handle the money.  Some guys are coming off the books and there can be some savings, but still.  Rodgers deal is crazy, but presumably the money can be screwed around with.  I guess they can monkey with or dump Mosley, JFM, Tomlinson, Uzomah and Conklin for some relief.  Figure Lazard is back.  I don't want to do anything to move his money around cause he blows and if Rodgers can't make him stand up he has to go for 2025.

Fair point.  But yeah there is a decent amount of money they could work around.  Worst case they could let Huff walk if they had to, if it meant solving LT and high-end WR2 instead of just one of the two.  Take their chances on JJ continuing to improve and McDonald taking that next step next year with a bigger role.  

 

But yeah, I just don't see how they DO NOT add all those pieces this offseason.  Whether or not they end up being the "right" pieces is another subject altogether though.  

[Augustiniak]

1 hour ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

We all know who the top 3 guys are going to be.  Looks like by the end of this Williams, Maye, and Daniels will all be top 10 picks (or close to it in Daniels case)

Then it becomes how much do teams believe in Bo Nix, how much do teams feel comfortable with Penix injury histroy, and how many teams buy into McCarthy's physical tools translating over what we've seen. out of the 3?  I see McCarthy and Nix being the biggest risers in the predraft process.  They'll show out during the combine.  I am almost positive Nix will throw too, the kid wants to compete.  Either way I could see a world where all 3 are first round picks and I can see a world where Mccarthy goes 20 something and the other 2 fall to round 2.  

So where does that leave the Jets?  Unless they lose out and get a top 3 pick, they are almost assuredly out of the range of Williams or Maye.   So how highly do they have Daniels rated over guys like MHJ or the top tackles?  Probably not higher than either of the top guys at OT if im guessing. 

So we probably end up looking at Mid to late round guys.   

These are the guys, in no particular order, who will probably be available in the 3rd or later:

Spencer Rattler

Same Hartman

Michael Pratt

Joe Milton

Jordan Travis

Not the most inspiring bunch, but there is some raw talent here that maybe after 3 years of working under rodgers you could strike gold with.   Milton has an absolute nuke for an arm, and elite size (6'5 235)  could he be someone you take and let learn under rodgers?  Jordan Travis isnt the biggest guy in the world at only like 6'1 200 lbs but he showed a lot of ability this season and will drop due to the injury, maybe he's a guy you let ride out.   

I personally hate spencer rattler, think he's a punk, id stay away.  

Sam Hartman is a career backup most likely. 

And Michael Pratt I think has a good shot to develop into something.  He just may never be special, but he certainly has the size, and makeup you look for.  He may end up a better than average starter, and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle ala brock purdy. 

 

I think pratt is a guy who can become a functional starter.  Take him round 3.  

Also, there will be guys who fall into round 2.  Jets should consider moving up for a guy like penix, mccarthy or nix if they’re just sitting there.  

[Chrebetfan80]

13 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think pratt is a guy who can become a functional starter.  Take him round 3.  

Also, there will be guys who fall into round 2.  Jets should consider moving up for a guy like penix, mccarthy or nix if they’re just sitting there.  

Going to be hard to move up into the top of the second from the 3rd.  Best chance is moving down in the first to recoup a second then moving up with the second to where you want to be to get one of those guys.  

[derp]

1 hour ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I  agree to an extent.  This year I like more than a few tackles.  Guys will move up and down boards as time goes on.  One thing you see every year is lower picked guys playing well on the offensive line.  We dont need a line of all 1st round picks in order to be successful.  I think if we can get becton to resign and he can get better, having tippman for a full year and a healthy AVT at Guard.  you may be able to take a tackle in the 2nd if you trade down and feel good about it.  

 

Again I dont think it happens. We lose out pick 3rd its probably the kid out of Penn State and we call it a day.  But to me it makes a lot more sense to move down a little try to take daniels or another QB and then get another 2nd and grab a good Guard or Tackle in the 2nd.  Wont happen, never does, JD only trades down in the later rounds seemingly.  

I do agree though we can get a good qb in this draft and finally have the unique opportunity to let them sit behind a true HOF. 

Definitely a lot of tackles. I don't think they can move down and get a top three guy, which isn't a disaster. Brugler's got nine in his current mock which is bananas. But you've got Mims, Guyton, Paul, and Suamataia who are all more on the toolsy side and I think could use some development. Then I know Fuaga is more run blocker first which is a little scary. Fautanu is that guard/tackle tweener and he's short but has adequate arm length and seems to be playing well but he's probably the most appealing of the group from that standpoint.

[Chrebetfan80]

37 minutes ago, derp said:

Definitely a lot of tackles. I don't think they can move down and get a top three guy, which isn't a disaster. Brugler's got nine in his current mock which is bananas. But you've got Mims, Guyton, Paul, and Suamataia who are all more on the toolsy side and I think could use some development. Then I know Fuaga is more run blocker first which is a little scary. Fautanu is that guard/tackle tweener and he's short but has adequate arm length and seems to be playing well but he's probably the most appealing of the group from that standpoint.

fuaga to me is your classic RT which if you resign becton i think may not be the worst move.  Fuatanu is very interesting because yes he's a tweener but he has been dominant in pass pro down the stretch for Washington.  He absolutely had a fantastic game vs. oregon, and I'm excited to see him play in the playoff.  He's a guy that again yes may be the most appealing out of that bunch.  The other guys are all toolsy but may be worth bringing in and would be a good consolation to me.

The way I think about it, and again I doubt this happens as douglas will probably just draft the best tackle available and call it a day until rd 3, but is  any of the top tackles and whatever is left to take in rd 3 better than that next tier of tackle coupled with that next tier of QB.   

[derp]

31 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

fuaga to me is your classic RT which if you resign becton i think may not be the worst move.  Fuatanu is very interesting because yes he's a tweener but he has been dominant in pass pro down the stretch for Washington.  He absolutely had a fantastic game vs. oregon, and I'm excited to see him play in the playoff.  He's a guy that again yes may be the most appealing out of that bunch.  The other guys are all toolsy but may be worth bringing in and would be a good consolation to me.

The way I think about it, and again I doubt this happens as douglas will probably just draft the best tackle available and call it a day until rd 3, but is  any of the top tackles and whatever is left to take in rd 3 better than that next tier of tackle coupled with that next tier of QB.   

I do worry in a pass heavy league what having Becton and Fuaga as the bookend tackles would be like. Fautanu would be really cool, him and one of the high end receivers would be awesome - but feels like a stretch to be able to pull that off.

Any WR's you like in that third round area?

[Chrebetfan80]

16 minutes ago, derp said:

I do worry in a pass heavy league what having Becton and Fuaga as the bookend tackles would be like. Fautanu would be really cool, him and one of the high end receivers would be awesome - but feels like a stretch to be able to pull that off.

Any WR's you like in that third round area?

not as many as in years past.  This is really a top heavy group.  And the top is HEAVY with talent.  I think most of the guys you want will be gone by rd 3 honestly

 

Some guys I initially have looked at but not enough yet.  Jermaine burton, ladd mcconkey, and pearsall are some names that maybe could peak my interest. I go back and forth for what id be looking for in the 3rd.   This draft has a few really big prototypical X guys and some do it all guys.  But its mostly all at the top.   Down here theres some boom or bust guys you could take a chance on but idk... like for instance, Wilson from FSU.  Dudes a freak but has struggled with drops and some have compared him to kelvin benjamin.  Idk what to make of that.  But his upside is huge.  So I really need to dig more.