2024 a QB-rich draft

[bonkertons]

Was going over mocks and the amount of talent expected to go in the first 2 rounds is actually pretty incredible.  This might end up being a better QB draft than 2020, and perhaps the best one I can remember since '04.  

 

I mean, just look at the names so far, assuming Williams declares:

Caleb Williams - USC

Drake Maye - UNC

Shedeur Sanders - Colorado

Quinn Ewers - Texas

JJ McCarthy - Michigan

Bo Nix - Oregon

Riley Leonard - Duke

Michael Penix Jr - Washington

Jordan Travis - FSU

 

It's actually kind of insane.  Some of these guys at the bottom would most likely be 1st rounders in weaker QB classes.  Instead you might see some of them slip to the 3rd round - aka some should be available at the end of the 2nd where we are hopefully picking.  Obviously there will be other needs: as of now you've got DT, WR2 or 3, LB replacement for Mosley if he is gone next year, maybe a playmaking TE.  I'm not sure you can pass on one of these kids though if you think they can be the successor to Rodgers.  Leonard is my personal favorite at the moment of that 2nd or 3rd tier.  Really love this kid's game so far.  

 

[Beerfish]

Some of those guys are not great or vastly overrated but the very top guys are great.   Better crop than last year for sure imo and some teams are going to regret getting their QB last year

[32EBoozer]

4 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Some of those guys are not great or vastly overrated but the very top guys are great.   Better crop than last year for sure imo and some teams are going to regret getting their QB last year

All the more reason I’m hopeful Jets go to SB with Rodgers playing less than the 60% of snaps… denying GB a 1st and the 2nd is #64

[Mavericknyc1980]

5 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

All the more reason I’m hopeful Jets go to SB with Rodgers playing less than the 60% of snaps… denying GB a 1st and the 2nd is #64

Me too can’t see how this is possible 

[hmhertz]

Williams is not the best QB in college football, he is the best QB in all of football.

As Zach Wilson compares to Mahomes, Mahomes compares to CW

[32EBoozer]

7 hours ago, Mavericknyc1980 said:

Me too can’t see how this is possible 

Yes, I realize it will be nearly impossible for the Jets to make a deep playoff run under this model. The defense would need to be outstanding along with the running game. One can dream, however.

[Hex]

6 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Yes, I realize it will be nearly impossible for the Jets to make a deep playoff run under this model. The defense would need to be outstanding along with the running game. One can dream, however.

If the Jets made a deep playoff run with Rodgers having more than 60% of the snaps it's worth the picks.

[bonkertons]

9 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Yes, I realize it will be nearly impossible for the Jets to make a deep playoff run under this model. The defense would need to be outstanding along with the running game. One can dream, however.

I think the only way this happens is if AR gets hurt and Zach comes in and balls out. If that happens though it’ll be Zach-mania and there’s no chance we’ll be looking QB in the draft. 

[chirorob]

These guys will all come out early, but some could really benefit staying in an extra year.

[derp]

This thread is potentially more relevant now.

[Flightattendant]

8 hours ago, derp said:

This thread is potentially more relevant now.

Potentially more relevant? Understatement of the year. We now retain our first round pick which will be top 15.

 

 

Again.

[maury77]

As loaded as this QB class appears to be, I can't f*cking believe we have to start scouting guys again. If you tried to sell a dark comedy script where Rodgers gets injured on the first series of the first game, Hollywood would reject it as too unbelieveable. 

[BCJet]

We have zero shot at Maye or Caleb, the team is too good to have a top 5 pick. 

JD is very likely going to have to use a pick in the 20s on a QB but what’s going to make the evaluation more difficult is that the organization really can’t spend a year or two developing someone like Jordan Travis given the talent on the roster.  We actually need both a QB for the future and a 2024 opening day starter and I really have no idea how you fill that spot. 

 

[derp]

It’ll be interesting, this is a pretty deep quarterback class in addition to being strong at the top.

There’s probably an argument for grabbing one of the more experienced but lower perceived upside guys in the third after shoring up tackle earlier. Might be an easier sell if Rodgers elects to hang around too.

Of course given the roster I’d be content to give up the 2025 first for an early tackle in addition to an early quarterback.

[derp]

2 hours ago, maury77 said:

As loaded as this QB class appears to be, I can't f*cking believe we have to start scouting guys again. If you tried to sell a dark comedy script where Rodgers gets injured on the first series of the first game, Hollywood would reject it as too unbelieveable. 

My nightmare was he gets hurt early in the early in the 11th game. At just over 10/17 games in should be at about 60% snaps if they’re equal by game.

But the offense was humming with him early the season and goes off a cliff late in the year, so we’re stuck counting offensive snaps hoping to have enough to get below the threshold as the offense slowly bleeds out the rest of a lost season.

[bonkertons]

3 hours ago, BCJet said:

We have zero shot at Maye or Caleb, the team is too good to have a top 5 pick. 

JD is very likely going to have to use a pick in the 20s on a QB but what’s going to make the evaluation more difficult is that the organization really can’t spend a year or two developing someone like Jordan Travis given the talent on the roster.  We actually need both a QB for the future and a 2024 opening day starter and I really have no idea how you fill that spot. 

 

Basically if you want Williams, you need to hope Indy finishes dead last and they like Richardson enough to trade out.  Even then it would probably cost us our '25 and '26 1st rounders if we're trying to move up from the 15 range.  Other than that, yeah you're probably talking moving up for Maye or Sanders.  You could in theory sit tight and take a guy like Nix or McCarthy, who both could end up being mid-1st rounders.  Maybe even higher in McCarthy's case.

 

Only two QBs I see playing from day one though are Williams and Maye.  

 

Luckily though there are some other really appealing prospects in this draft as well.  Marvin Harrison Jr, Alt, Bowers, Fashanu.  This other OT prospect is getting hyped to oblivion at the moment as well:  Kingsley Suamataia.  Maybe Maye ends up slipping a bit if we're lucky.  But yeah, the dream of Williams is an extreme longshot barring an absolutely miserable season, or a ridiculous overpay before the draft.  

[BCJet]

10 hours ago, bonkertons said:

Basically if you want Williams, you need to hope Indy finishes dead last and they like Richardson enough to trade out.  Even then it would probably cost us our '25 and '26 1st rounders if we're trying to move up from the 15 range.  Other than that, yeah you're probably talking moving up for Maye or Sanders.  You could in theory sit tight and take a guy like Nix or McCarthy, who both could end up being mid-1st rounders.  Maybe even higher in McCarthy's case.

 

Only two QBs I see playing from day one though are Williams and Maye.  

 

Luckily though there are some other really appealing prospects in this draft as well.  Marvin Harrison Jr, Alt, Bowers, Fashanu.  This other OT prospect is getting hyped to oblivion at the moment as well:  Kingsley Suamataia.  Maybe Maye ends up slipping a bit if we're lucky.  But yeah, the dream of Williams is an extreme longshot barring an absolutely miserable season, or a ridiculous overpay before the draft.  

The only chance we have to move up for someone like Maye is if we include a young player like McDonald if they have a strong season along with 2 firsts to move from 13-15 up to 3 if its Arizona (their Texans pick) or the Colts in the scenario you mentioned.  

Then its possible to give up a good young player, 13 and then some additional firsts.

I think the more likely scenario is taking a JJ McCarthy, Quinn Ewers type guy with our own pick and hoping they pan out.

[bonkertons]

15 minutes ago, BCJet said:

The only chance we have to move up for someone like Maye is if we include a young player like McDonald if they have a strong season along with 2 firsts to move from 13-15 up to 3 if its Arizona (their Texans pick) or the Colts in the scenario you mentioned.  

Then its possible to give up a good young player, 13 and then some additional firsts.

I think the more likely scenario is taking a JJ McCarthy, Quinn Ewers type guy with our own pick and hoping they pan out.

Could be right.  Honestly I think 15 and a 3rd or 4th in '24 + '25 1st + '26 1st is going to be enough to move up to 2 or 3 though.  At least if we're going by the Houston/Arizona price.  Houston paid 12, 33, '24 1st and '24 3rd for the 3rd overall.  If the value is still off, I don't think the difference is McDonald.  Maybe a 2nd in '25 or '26.

 

That said though I'd be more than happy with a kid like McCarthy.  Don't know much about Ewers but his arm looks pretty damn good.  Solid mobility as well.  Something about McCarthy though just screams NFL QB to me.  I'd be more than happy staying put and taking him, keeping the rest of our assets.  Maye would be something special though.  

[Grandy]

Draft Drake Maye, have him sit for a year while Rodgers wins Comeback player of the year. Ride the next 20 years of glorious QB play. 

[bonkertons]

Yeah I don't see Rodgers not attempting to come back from this unless they literally tell him he can't.  If the timeline is 10 months, he should be good to go for the start of TC.  Maybe we decide to carry 3 QBs next year as well, signing a guy like Gabbert or Teddy or Rudolph.  Someone with experienced who is very cheap, just so we aren't forced to throw whoever we draft into the fire immediately if something happens with Rodgers.

 

But yeah the ideal scenario would be Rodgers comes back, you draft your next franchise QB(whether you have to trade up or not), and you put him in the Zach spot of learning behind the GOAT for a year or two.  

 

I think whoever finishes 1 will take Williams, but I believe there will be an opportunity to move up for Maye.  The question will be whether we are willing to pay the price, or if we'd prefer to just sit back and take a guy from that next tier of Sanders, McCarthy, Ewers, Nix.  It's gonna be interesting to watch, but if Zach struggles this year there should be no question about what we need to do in the 1st round.  It 100% has to be a QB.  

[Sam_S]

The Jets should draft yet another QB in the first round given their rich history of success at the position!!!

[JetPotato]

On 9/9/2023 at 11:37 PM, Mavericknyc1980 said:

Me too can’t see how this is possible 

We found our culprit

[derp]

If the Jets aren’t at the very top of the draft, I’m kind of intrigued by the idea of targeting one of the seniors with the third round pick. Especially if Rodgers returns.

Class is going to have guys who have played a lot of college snaps. Should be a little more developed and have a clearer trajectory of improving than the second tier of underclassmen. Bo Nix, Jordan Travis, Michael Penix, Michael Pratt, even guys like Jayden Daniels, Spencer Rattler, Joe Milton.

Focus on intangibles and that improvement trajectory (which probably eliminates some of those guys). See if you can get lucky with a Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins - even maybe Brock Purdy now - and if not hopefully they can have a few years of a cheap backup who they feel good about.

Think it’s potentially a better ROI than rolling the dice on talent and hoping to develop it in the first, and this would be a good class to try to find a guy in.

[bonkertons]

1 hour ago, derp said:

If the Jets aren’t at the very top of the draft, I’m kind of intrigued by the idea of targeting one of the seniors with the third round pick. Especially if Rodgers returns.

Class is going to have guys who have played a lot of college snaps. Should be a little more developed and have a clearer trajectory of improving than the second tier of underclassmen. Bo Nix, Jordan Travis, Michael Penix, Michael Pratt, even guys like Jayden Daniels, Spencer Rattler, Joe Milton.

Focus on intangibles and that improvement trajectory (which probably eliminates some of those guys). See if you can get lucky with a Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins - even maybe Brock Purdy now - and if not hopefully they can have a few years of a cheap backup who they feel good about.

Think it’s potentially a better ROI than rolling the dice on talent and hoping to develop it in the first, and this would be a good class to try to find a guy in.

I don't mind this strategy as long as you're sure on whoever the guy is.  You are as confident as possible that he is THE guy.  You only have this limited window with Rodgers.  If I'm bringing in some kid to sit and learn behind him for a year or two, he's gotta be the longterm guy of the future.  If he's not, you're probably looking at more Darnold and Zach's after that - kids who will be expected to come in and start from day one.  

 

I don't care where we get the QB as long as he's the real deal.  History tells us you're more likely to get that guy in the 1st, but it's certainly possible to wait and still get him.  Personally I wouldn't **** around lol.  I'm either trading up for Maye or I'm taking McCarthy or Nix with my 1st.....at this point.  A lot can change from now til April though.

 

Jordan Travis is an interesting one though, not gonna lie.  I'd imagine we'd have to find a way to get back into the 2nd to make that happen though.

[derp]

6 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I don't mind this strategy as long as you're sure on whoever the guy is.  You are as confident as possible that he is THE guy.  You only have this limited window with Rodgers.  If I'm bringing in some kid to sit and learn behind him for a year or two, he's gotta be the longterm guy of the future.  If he's not, you're probably looking at more Darnold and Zach's after that - kids who will be expected to come in and start from day one.  

 

I don't care where we get the QB as long as he's the real deal.  History tells us you're more likely to get that guy in the 1st, but it's certainly possible to wait and still get him.  Personally I wouldn't **** around lol.  I'm either trading up for Maye or I'm taking McCarthy or Nix with my 1st.....at this point.  A lot can change from now til April though.

 

Jordan Travis is an interesting one though, not gonna lie.  I'd imagine we'd have to find a way to get back into the 2nd to make that happen though.

I think the appeal to doing it in the third or fourth instead of the first is you’re still getting value out of it if he’s only a backup. I wouldn’t take someone they project to only be a backup, there needs to be a projection he can be a franchise guy.

They can take someone in the first and not be sure he’ll be the guy either, and the opportunity cost is way higher in that scenario. They’ve taken a bunch of guys they’ve been “confident as possible” would be the guy - three in the top five in the last fifteen years. None have been the guy.

There are no assurances if it’s a first round pick next year. History tells us the odds in the first are definitively better  than outside the first, but the odds in the first are still really ******* low.

To be clear, I don’t think this is definitively the right strategy. But I do believe it’s worth exploring as an alternative idea to spending another first rounder in 2024, especially if Rodgers projects to be back for another year or two.

[bonkertons]

1 minute ago, derp said:

I think the appeal to doing it in the third or fourth instead of the first is you’re still getting value out of it if he’s only a backup. I wouldn’t take someone they project to only be a backup, there needs to be a projection he can be a franchise guy.

They can take someone in the first and not be sure he’ll be the guy either, and the opportunity cost is way higher in that scenario. They’ve taken a bunch of guys they’ve been “confident as possible” would be the guy - three in the top five in the last fifteen years. None have been the guy.

There are no assurances if it’s a first round pick next year. History tells us the odds in the first are definitively better  than outside the first, but the odds in the first are still really ******* low.

To be clear, I don’t think this is definitively the right strategy. But I do believe it’s worth exploring as an alternative idea to spending another first rounder in 2024, especially if Rodgers projects to be back for another year or two.

Trust me I get the strategy.  It's less crippling when you only wasted a 2nd or 3rd instead of a 2nd or 3rd overall, like we have done since 2018.  I guess my thinking is, whoever we take HAS to be the guy.  Whether it's a 1st rounder or a 4th rounder.  You're putting him in the best position any of our drafted QBs have EVER been put into in the history of this franchise.  No pressure out of the gate, learning from one of the GOATs, and then eventually handed the keys to a team with an elite defense, elite WR, elite RB, and what you hope would be at least 3/5 of an OL.  By the time this kid steps in, there's no reason why that OL shouldn't be complete.  

 

But yeah, as soon as Rodgers was announced as being out for the year, my brain instantly went to "this 1st has to go to a QB....it just has to".  I can live with waiting if we get creative.  Moving up from the 3rd to the 2nd to get a kid like Travis or Leonard.  I think both have pretty big potential.  Or maybe Rodgers going down changes things and we're now OK with selling off Huff for a 2nd(assuming someone offers that).  Either way I think waiting for the 3rd is a bit risky.  2nd I can get on board with.  1st would be my priority though...unless somehow an Alt or Bowers are somehow there for the taking.  Then you just have to figure it out.  

[derp]

7 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Trust me I get the strategy.  It's less crippling when you only wasted a 2nd or 3rd instead of a 2nd or 3rd overall, like we have done since 2018.  I guess my thinking is, whoever we take HAS to be the guy.  Whether it's a 1st rounder or a 4th rounder.  You're putting him in the best position any of our drafted QBs have EVER been put into in the history of this franchise.  No pressure out of the gate, learning from one of the GOATs, and then eventually handed the keys to a team with an elite defense, elite WR, elite RB, and what you hope would be at least 3/5 of an OL.  By the time this kid steps in, there's no reason why that OL shouldn't be complete.  

 

But yeah, as soon as Rodgers was announced as being out for the year, my brain instantly went to "this 1st has to go to a QB....it just has to".  I can live with waiting if we get creative.  Moving up from the 3rd to the 2nd to get a kid like Travis or Leonard.  I think both have pretty big potential.  Or maybe Rodgers going down changes things and we're now OK with selling off Huff for a 2nd(assuming someone offers that).  Either way I think waiting for the 3rd is a bit risky.  2nd I can get on board with.  1st would be my priority though...unless somehow an Alt or Bowers are somehow there for the taking.  Then you just have to figure it out.  

First rounder on a quarterback was my first thought too.

I don’t think how low the hit rate is, even in the first, can be overstated. So the idea that it needs to be a first rounder because you have to be sure is flawed to me, because there’s a ton of risk even in the first. On top of that, Douglas hasn’t inspired any confidence he’s going to sift through things well.

Moving up for Maye would be different, but I’d be surprised if they can get up high enough for that.

Also important to acknowledge a) if Rodgers returns in 2024 the team has Super Bowl aspirations a first round quarterback doesn’t move the needle for and b) as good as the situation is for a young QB in some ways, as things currently stand next year’s offensive line is LT Warren, LG Schweitzer, C Tippmann, RG AVT, RT Mitchell with $60M in cap space for a draft class, OL upgrades, a safety, a linebacker, and all the DT’s around Q (or add Mosley and/or Tomlinson and knock the cap space down roughly $17M or $13M respectively).

[nj meadowlands]

Everyone please drop those sweet, sweet Quinn Ewers highlights here.

[bonkertons]

32 minutes ago, derp said:

First rounder on a quarterback was my first thought too.

I don’t think how low the hit rate is, even in the first, can be overstated. So the idea that it needs to be a first rounder because you have to be sure is flawed to me, because there’s a ton of risk even in the first. On top of that, Douglas hasn’t inspired any confidence he’s going to sift through things well.

Moving up for Maye would be different, but I’d be surprised if they can get up high enough for that.

Also important to acknowledge a) if Rodgers returns in 2024 the team has Super Bowl aspirations a first round quarterback doesn’t move the needle for and b) as good as the situation is for a young QB in some ways, as things currently stand next year’s offensive line is LT Warren, LG Schweitzer, C Tippmann, RG AVT, RT Mitchell with $60M in cap space for a draft class, OL upgrades, a safety, a linebacker, and all the DT’s around Q (or add Mosley and/or Tomlinson and knock the cap space down roughly $17M or $13M respectively).

I expect Tomlinson to be back.  I think they'll want some continuity on that line.  If Becton stays healthy he'll be franchised.  I'd be shocked if they just let him walk and go into next year with holes at both tackle positions.  So you're basically looking at Becton-Tomlinson-Tippmann-AVT-___________.  Mitchell being the favorite for the RT spot, unless you draft another kid or bring in a vet(hopefully better than Turner) to compete with him.  

 

The other positions IMO have mostly been spots the Jets have been preparing for.  It appears to me as if Quincy is the future MLB of this team once Mosley is gone.  From there you have Barnes and Surratt who can compete, possibly with yet another draft pick in '24, or a cheap veteran.  I wouldn't be surprised the plan for JD and Saleh at safety would be to have Davis compete with Dean.  IMO this is how great teams stay great.  Draft well and phase out expensive veterans for cheaper vets.  

 

I'd prefer to draft a high end DT to finally solve that hole next to Quinnen, but I don't think it's necessarily a bigger need than solving the QB position in a pretty loaded draft.  Even still, you could take a pretty decent prospect in the 3rd or 4th and then go the Woods/Jefferson route for one more year.  

 

...and yeah while drafting a QB in theory does nothing for our 2024 SB chances, it's still obviously an area that needs to be addressed.  Rodgers will be coming off of a serious injury.  In reality we have no idea what he'll be when he gets back.  IMO it's either pay a high-end veteran backup, or invest a high pick into your future guy.  Like I said, I'd rather get our next draft pick in here now to learn from Rodgers while he can.  Take advantage of this window while you have it.

[derp]

Tomlinson has been brutal and costs $13M to keep. Him and tagging Becton leaves the team with under $30M in cap space. I think Tomlinson needs to go before Mosley.

Davis isn’t signed next year and they didn’t stash Dean like they did Adams. Certainly possible Dean pushes for the job but I don’t think Davis is in play as a starter next year.

I do think they can mostly go veteran at DT, but they’ll need money to do it.

It’s also not a *need* but WR could probably use an upgrade too.

What you outlined is possible, but it’s also pretty much best case scenario and a little more rosy than it is realistic. I think they need to plan for more hiccups than what you described.

But sure, if they’ve got Becton at LT, a proven Mitchell or Warren, Dean, and enough room to sign veteran tackles then they’d easily have the flexibility to go QB. Just don’t think that’s likely to happen. Doesn’t mean they can’t still take one.

[win4ever]

I think I mentioned Ewers last year somewhere in this forum, but I really like him for his ball placement.  Last year, he would have some great throws mixed in with bonehead mistakes, but he's better at it this year.  

Anyway, what I really liked about him is the ball trajectory, because these aren't deep passes where the guy is wide open and slows down to make the catch.  Even on open throws, he's hitting guys in stride with outstretched arms, which shows excellent ball placement on those throws.  He's leading them into catches, even if the guy was draped all over him.  Sometimes that seems risky in college because the CB coverage isn't as good, but I think it translates extremely well to the NFL.  

Assuming he stays on this trajectory, he's going top 5 in the draft next year.  We're not going to be in play because Rodgers will be back.  I'd be looking for that Penn State Tackle or the best tackle prospects out there with the first next year, assuming Becton is tagged and signed long term.  

[bonkertons]

11 hours ago, derp said:

Tomlinson has been brutal and costs $13M to keep. Him and tagging Becton leaves the team with under $30M in cap space. I think Tomlinson needs to go before Mosley.

Davis isn’t signed next year and they didn’t stash Dean like they did Adams. Certainly possible Dean pushes for the job but I don’t think Davis is in play as a starter next year.

I do think they can mostly go veteran at DT, but they’ll need money to do it.

It’s also not a *need* but WR could probably use an upgrade too.

What you outlined is possible, but it’s also pretty much best case scenario and a little more rosy than it is realistic. I think they need to plan for more hiccups than what you described.

But sure, if they’ve got Becton at LT, a proven Mitchell or Warren, Dean, and enough room to sign veteran tackles then they’d easily have the flexibility to go QB. Just don’t think that’s likely to happen. Doesn’t mean they can’t still take one.

I’m willing to see how Tomlinson looks this year on a better line. Especially once Brown shakes off the rust. Regardless IMO it’s whatever, if he’s bad you can cut him and put that money into another free agent. Either way I don’t see it affecting our draft strategy. 

 

On defense it’s the same strategy we’ve taken with Sherwood and Adams. Guys don’t necessarily need to be proven as long as the coaching staff believes in them. Davis shouldn’t be difficult or expensive to bring back. Same with Dean who they got back on the PS. Mosley is where the biggest savings will be had so yeah I expect him to be gone. The defense is so good that I think you have a little more wiggle room to trust young players on that side of the ball and not expect much of a drop off. 
 

Sure WR is a need but you can add solid talent after the 1st. As of now we have a 3rd and two 4ths. Only receiving option I would consider taking in the 1st is Bowers. Other than that for me it’s QB or OT. Trade up for Maye or snatch JJ McCarthy or Ewers. Take your WR in the 3rd - maybe a kid like McConkey lasts til then. Maybe in the 4th get a run stuffing DT and a developmental guard. 
 

But yeah I’m not worried about the cap situation next year. We’ll have to trust some younger guys but this is what we’ve been building towards. Guys like Mitchell, Warren, Barnes, Dean. All guys brought in with an eye for the future. 

[derp]

6 hours ago, bonkertons said:

I’m willing to see how Tomlinson looks this year on a better line. Especially once Brown shakes off the rust. Regardless IMO it’s whatever, if he’s bad you can cut him and put that money into another free agent. Either way I don’t see it affecting our draft strategy. 

 

On defense it’s the same strategy we’ve taken with Sherwood and Adams. Guys don’t necessarily need to be proven as long as the coaching staff believes in them. Davis shouldn’t be difficult or expensive to bring back. Same with Dean who they got back on the PS. Mosley is where the biggest savings will be had so yeah I expect him to be gone. The defense is so good that I think you have a little more wiggle room to trust young players on that side of the ball and not expect much of a drop off. 
 

Sure WR is a need but you can add solid talent after the 1st. As of now we have a 3rd and two 4ths. Only receiving option I would consider taking in the 1st is Bowers. Other than that for me it’s QB or OT. Trade up for Maye or snatch JJ McCarthy or Ewers. Take your WR in the 3rd - maybe a kid like McConkey lasts til then. Maybe in the 4th get a run stuffing DT and a developmental guard. 
 

But yeah I’m not worried about the cap situation next year. We’ll have to trust some younger guys but this is what we’ve been building towards. Guys like Mitchell, Warren, Barnes, Dean. All guys brought in with an eye for the future. 

The point regarding the line was regarding you saying the situation was outstanding for a young quarterback. With not a lot of cap space the line under contract next year is AVT and guys who haven’t won jobs on what doesn’t look like a good OL. That doesn’t scream good situation to me. But yeah, they’re not drafting a guard in the first, that just wasn’t the point I was making.

Like I said, those guys might win jobs. They also might not. I don’t think any of them strike me as similar to Adams. Again, what you’ve outlined seems like an optimistic view of how the team could come together next year. We’ll see.

And again it’s really important to acknowledge that quarterbacks have a really low hit rate in the first round. You’re taking McCarthy or Ewers so you’re confident about the prospect you’re taking, based on recent history a first round quarterback has less than a 50% chance of working out long term for the team that drafts him.

I guess overall I think both how you’ve described next year’s team and your quarterback preference are both heavily slanted towards things going according to plan when they often don’t.

[bonkertons]

1 hour ago, derp said:

The point regarding the line was regarding you saying the situation was outstanding for a young quarterback. With not a lot of cap space the line under contract next year is AVT and guys who haven’t won jobs on what doesn’t look like a good OL. That doesn’t scream good situation to me. But yeah, they’re not drafting a guard in the first, that just wasn’t the point I was making.

Like I said, those guys might win jobs. They also might not. I don’t think any of them strike me as similar to Adams. Again, what you’ve outlined seems like an optimistic view of how the team could come together next year. We’ll see.

And again it’s really important to acknowledge that quarterbacks have a really low hit rate in the first round. You’re taking McCarthy or Ewers so you’re confident about the prospect you’re taking, based on recent history a first round quarterback has less than a 50% chance of working out long term for the team that drafts him.

I guess overall I think both how you’ve described next year’s team and your quarterback preference are both heavily slanted towards things going according to plan when they often don’t.

I said he'd be in the best position any of our drafted QBs have ever been in, which I don't see how that's not true.  It wasn't just the OL but the team as a whole.  In reality though, yeah this OL should be complete by 2 years from now.  At the very least it should be much improved.  If it's not, I don't know wtf we're doing.

 

I think being optimistic is penciling in one guy for a job and hoping it works out.  The Jets OTOH have been stockpiling bodies for a bit now.  Guys who can compete with one another for starting jobs.  Guys who shouldn't be difficult or expensive to retain.  Davis vs Dean, Mitchell vs Warren, Surratt vs Barnes.  You can even add later draft picks to compete with those guys.  We've got a 3rd and two 4ths coming up in '24.  Even still, I'm sure at least one of these positions will be filled by a veteran signing.  

 

I'm less confident on Ewers than I am McCarthy, but the point is you have your pick of the litter if we decide to go QB in round 1.  Your options are drastically cut down if you wait until the 3rd, or even in the 2nd if you trade up.  I'd rather give JD the green light to pick his guy and not limit him to whoever is left.  If "his guy" ends up being a kid like Jordan Travis or Riley Leonard, and he's confident he can get him in the 2nd, then cool.  Use your 1st somewhere else but you better make sure you get the kid you want later.  At some point when QB is involved and we've failed as many times as we have, you can't afford to get too cute.  I honestly wouldn't mind if they "reached" on their guy in the 1st if there was any doubt that he'd be there later on.

 

But yeah, as far as the last sentence, not sure what you expect.  Any QB we draft outside of Williams will be hoping things go according to plan.  It's a gamble no matter what.  Even if we trade up for Maye.  At least this time, we aren't relying on whoever we draft to come in and be the savior from day one.  IMO that already puts us ahead of where we were when we drafted Sam and Zach.

[derp]

25 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I said he'd be in the best position any of our drafted QBs have ever been in, which I don't see how that's not true.  It wasn't just the OL but the team as a whole.  In reality though, yeah this OL should be complete by 2 years from now.  At the very least it should be much improved.  If it's not, I don't know wtf we're doing.

 

I think being optimistic is penciling in one guy for a job and hoping it works out.  The Jets OTOH have been stockpiling bodies for a bit now.  Guys who can compete with one another for starting jobs.  Guys who shouldn't be difficult or expensive to retain.  Davis vs Dean, Mitchell vs Warren, Surratt vs Barnes.  You can even add later draft picks to compete with those guys.  We've got a 3rd and two 4ths coming up in '24.  Even still, I'm sure at least one of these positions will be filled by a veteran signing.  

 

I'm less confident on Ewers than I am McCarthy, but the point is you have your pick of the litter if we decide to go QB in round 1.  Your options are drastically cut down if you wait until the 3rd, or even in the 2nd if you trade up.  I'd rather give JD the green light to pick his guy and not limit him to whoever is left.  If "his guy" ends up being a kid like Jordan Travis or Riley Leonard, and he's confident he can get him in the 2nd, then cool.  Use your 1st somewhere else but you better make sure you get the kid you want later.  At some point when QB is involved and we've failed as many times as we have, you can't afford to get too cute.  I honestly wouldn't mind if they "reached" on their guy in the 1st if there was any doubt that he'd be there later on.

 

But yeah, as far as the last sentence, not sure what you expect.  Any QB we draft outside of Williams will be hoping things go according to plan.  It's a gamble no matter what.  Even if we trade up for Maye.  At least this time, we aren't relying on whoever we draft to come in and be the savior from day one.  IMO that already puts us ahead of where we were when we drafted Sam and Zach.

Sanchez was in a substantially better position in terms of supporting cast. This team is a defense, a running back, a guard, and a receiver right now. It’d be nice to sit behind Rodgers, but Wilson gets that opportunity too - doesn’t make success a given. And there’s no track record of quarterback development on the coaching staff.

You’re talking about a fourth year player who never has pushed for a starting job and a UDFA they didn’t protect on the roster even though they definitely had space to with all the receivers they kept at safety and two tackles who didn’t come close to winning jobs on what looks like a below average offensive line. Both of those still strike me as optimistic. Again, we’ll see.

I think linebacker is probably fine because worst case they can find somebody cheap and it’s a third linebacker role, but that presumes they’re comfortable with Sherwood taking a more every down role. We also in this recent exchange haven’t addressed the empty DT room.

You have your pick of the litter with the first pick. We’re talking about maybe having the opportunity to choose QB3. The hit rate in the first round is extremely low, it gets substantially lower when you get past that first pick. This front office has inspired no confidence when it comes to making quarterback decisions, and again the offensive coaching staff really has no track record of quarterback development.

Your last paragraph and your second to last conflict with each other. They need to get their guy, but of course it’s a gamble?

I don’t think this organization has earned the benefit of the doubt that going to get their guy is the right move.

Rodgers is signed two years after this year. You’re hoping to compete for a Super Bowl in that window. A first round quarterback in 2023 doesn’t move the needle there. And the situation isn’t great for whoever’s playing quarterback in 2024 which means it’s not going to be great for a young quarterback.

Nothing stops them from acquiring a veteran quarterback after Rodgers stops playing, whenever that is, so they don’t have to play a young player immediately.

None of that is to say they absolutely shouldn’t take a quarterback in the first, but I think it’s far from clear that doing so would be the right decision.