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AVT 5th year option decision


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4 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Agreed. If you were to look at Joe Douglas’ entire Jets resume the failure to build the offensive line despite investing copious resources in it is his biggest failure. Whiffing on Zach Wilson is the single biggest mistake (and what will ultimately cost him his job) but QBs are always a bit of a gamble. As someone who has supposed to have an eye for OL talent he’s had years and years to fix this thing and has sunk high picks, mid round picks, FA money etc. into the situation and it’s no better off than when he took over.

Even WR's he whiffed on two second round picks. Defense has been great. Offense has been rough aside from Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. That he's drafted probably the two best skill players the Jets have had in the last 20 years or so and the offense is still bottom five in the league is almost impressive.

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3 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I mean if we’re fixing draft mistakes with the benefit of hindsight let’s just take Patrick Mahomes instead of Jamal Adams.

That's in the Mike Maccagnan complaints file, not Joe Douglas.

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12 minutes ago, derp said:

Even WR's he whiffed on two second round picks. Defense has been great. Offense has been rough aside from Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. That he's drafted probably the two best skill players the Jets have had in the last 20 years or so and the offense is still bottom five in the league is almost impressive.

Right but at least he can rest his hat on those two dudes who are legitimately awesome.

What’s scary is that part of the Joe Douglas defense has been “he wanted to use a top pick on OL but the owner wanted someone else.”

I assumed that meant Sewell over Zach — we later find out it meant Ekwonu over Sauce. Yikes.

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7 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

McD was a second round prospect.  I don’t thinking taking a 2nd round prospect at 15 is a very good idea either (especially when you his better already on the team) 

Just because the Jets can’t find a G later than 15 just means the Jets are are terrible organization- the league is littered with mid to late round starting guards.  
If you trade up to take a G at 15 he better be a boderline HOF otherwise it’s a bad pick. 

Other than in 2022, the Jets have been bad at draft picking, especially in the early rounds.  I like Tippman and Warren where we drafted him.  Hopefully we can continue this year.  My personal feeling is that if AVT never got injured, I would have been happy with the pick.  As far as his talent is concerned, I believe in him.   If he gets injured again this year, then even I will be down on him.  

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21 hours ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

I thought it was because fields sucked?

there are a lot of really bad QB's in the NFL. He is good enough for someone to take him on, but not good enough for someone to give up picks for him + deal with his 5th year option/contract issues

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On 2/25/2024 at 6:30 AM, FidelioJet said:

McD was a second round prospect.  I don’t thinking taking a 2nd round prospect at 15 is a very good idea either (especially when you his better already on the team) 

Just because the Jets can’t find a G later than 15 just means the Jets are are terrible organization- the league is littered with mid to late round starting guards.  
If you trade up to take a G at 15 he better be a boderline HOF otherwise it’s a bad pick. 

He wasn’t a 2nd round prospect. 
Just to those who seem to be blaming the Jets because they had no idea who he was

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On 2/24/2024 at 8:40 PM, bitonti said:

Avt I like this player alot but  he's overrated because he's one of the 2 above average players on the line 

Being honest 15 mil is probably too much for a guy who suffered 2 major injuries in 2 years.

If it happens again what's his value?

Good teams let these guys go 

And in the case that he balls out they could still negotiate... Or if he walks and another team pays the Jets take the 3rd round comp in 2026 or whenever that arrives 

I wonder what JD was thinking on draft day trading up for a guard.  Did he consider the 5th year cap hit?  I like JD but sometimes I really wonder.  I suppose you can write it off to him being a newb GM who was learning on the job.  Time's up JD!     

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On 2/24/2024 at 11:19 AM, GreenFish said:

I’d pick up the AVT option.

If I’m a QB needy team, I’m trading for Fields. If I’m the Bears, I’d keep him and trade back.

I’d pick up Fields option for sure. But a 3yr extension at $25M per year would be better.

A mistake for Fields would be what the Giants did and overpay. Mid 20’s is about right.

One aspect of Field's game that may be over-looked is he rushed for more yards than Breece Hall. 1000+

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1 hour ago, LIJetsFan said:

I wonder what JD was thinking on draft day trading up for a guard.  Did he consider the 5th year cap hit?  I like JD but sometimes I really wonder.  I suppose you can write it off to him being a newb GM who was learning on the job.  Time's up JD!     

It was clear.  The Jets were picking a QB and needed a LG for the scheme.  Joe Thuney went to the Chiefs for big money.    The 3rd round of that draft was terrible.   AVT was a clear top 20-25 pick.  
 

Dave Decastro of the Steelers was a similar pick and extended.   He then fell apart.  
 

It is clear though that in today’s NFL you pick the WRs first.   AVT is a second round pick in this draft.  Low first maybe.  He should be extended for decent money if he can stay healthy.  Look what Laken got 

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3 hours ago, varjet said:

It was clear.  The Jets were picking a QB and needed a LG for the scheme.  Joe Thuney went to the Chiefs for big money.    The 3rd round of that draft was terrible.   AVT was a clear top 20-25 pick.  
 

Dave Decastro of the Steelers was a similar pick and extended.   He then fell apart.  
 

It is clear though that in today’s NFL you pick the WRs first.   AVT is a second round pick in this draft.  Low first maybe.  He should be extended for decent money if he can stay healthy.  Look what Laken got 

 

AVT was probably higher as a consensus player to be honest. The Athletic consensus board had him at 16. Hard to tell how to take that since some evaluations may have had him as an OT and thus pushed higher. 

The argument for picking him that early should have been AVT is a floor good guard with the potential to be an OT (or maybe an emergency OT). Based on how the Jets started him as OG day 1 - my guess is they always viewed him as a guard and flex OT in an emergency. As we saw - there is tremendous value in his flexibility which helps justify where he was selected. If we are no longer viewing him as a flex OT given the injuries it becomes harder to justify his value on draft day. 

While round three may have sucked there were several IOLs who could have been selected at pick 34 (elijah moore). Such as Creed Humphry, Landon Dickerson, Aaron Banks, Sam Cosmi (convert OT to G), Teven Jenkens (convert OT to G), etc. Jets could have picked Moore at 23 and then gone for an IOL at 34 given Connor McGovern (C at time) could play G spot. They would have both third round picks in this scenario.

Obviously the best pick w/ hindsight would have been selecting Christian Darrisaw who went in our original spot to Minnesota and is arguably a top 5 OT in the league right now. 

Hindsight is what it is but the same analysis can be applied to selecting his fifth year option. 

$15mm would make him the fourth highest paid RG in the league based on AAV - and the fifth highest LG. 

Now with the increased cap and those deals being legacy payments its not exactly apples to apples - but needless to say by exercising his option he is going to make top 5-7 money at his position.

Is AVT a top 5-7 G at his position? I'd probably say no even when healthy but maybe its close. When you consider the health risk it probably points you more to decline the option. 

I think JD will pick it up b/c its good optics for him and helps solidify the line in the future - but to me there is no doubt that it becomes an easier decision if you still believe AVT can be a flex OT and give you adequate OT play in a pinch. When he loses that you're basically paying him full market cost hoping he can stay healthy... its risky. 

 

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On 2/23/2024 at 5:23 PM, k-met57 said:

yeah here is the issue. the day you get him....he is going to be asking for a new deal. if you think he is playing for nothing this year, and an option next year, you have another thing coming.

so say u get him, and he has an OK year, i mean u have to know the odds of him being Lamar Jackson are very small. then what? you pay him 25mil to be a bridge QB? i don't see it.

why should anyone agree to give him a new deal?  he's locked in for 2 years.  it's not like he's amazing and can hold out.

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11 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

$15mm would make him the fourth highest paid RG in the league based on AAV - and the fifth highest LG. 

That's a ridiculous price for a player with his track record. That's the bottom line they can find 2 guard starters for the price of avts option 

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12 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Is AVT a top 5-7 G at his position? I'd probably say no even when healthy but maybe its close.

Nelson 

Thuney 

Z Martin

elgton Jenkins 

Bitonio 

Lindstrom 

Wyatt teller 

Trey Smith 

Kevin Zeitler 

Landon Dickerson 

Tyler Smith 

AVT might be more like top 15 than top 5 

 

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21 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Nelson 

Thuney 

Z Martin

elgton Jenkins 

Bitonio 

Lindstrom 

Wyatt teller 

Trey Smith 

Kevin Zeitler 

Landon Dickerson 

Tyler Smith 

AVT might be more like top 15 than top 5 

 

Yes b/c the contracts were broken down into RG and LG when I say top 5-7 I mean top 5-7 LG or top 5-7 RG - said differently top 10-14 guard. He is absolutely not a top 5-7 guard - we agree. 

25 minutes ago, bitonti said:

That's a ridiculous price for a player with his track record. That's the bottom line they can find 2 guard starters for the price of avts option 

I tend to agree. If you could guarantee no injuries its probably around a fair price. When you factor in his injury history it makes it a bad trade for the Jets UNLESS they believe he can provide adequate tackle play in a pinch. 

If JD wasn't GM'ing for his job I'd believe the Jets only pick up his option if they planned to move him to OT. Given JD IS GM'ing for his job I don't think picking up his option means anything other than JD wants to point to AVT as a win on his resume. 

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24 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

picking up his option means anything other than JD wants to point to AVT as a win on his resume. 

Classic jd 

 that whole Rodgers thing was also motivated by the idea of a Zach redemption 

 

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On 2/24/2024 at 8:40 PM, bitonti said:

Avt I like this player alot but  he's overrated because he's one of the 2 above average players on the line 

Being honest 15 mil is probably too much for a guy who suffered 2 major injuries in 2 years.

If it happens again what's his value?

Good teams let these guys go 

And in the case that he balls out they could still negotiate... Or if he walks and another team pays the Jets take the 3rd round comp in 2026 or whenever that arrives 

I initially thought picking it up was a no brainer because of his versatility. That said, I wanted him back at G, which doesn’t align.

Unless he plays RT, I wouldn’t pick it up.

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There have been a lot of great arguments for not extending AVT.  

When you look at OTC, RGs are generally paid more than LGs.  

At LG, Ben Powers made AAY #13mm, with Isaac Saumalo next at $8mm/AAY.

RG has Scherf at $16.5mm, Teller at $14.2, Mason At $11.7, Ruiz at $11mm, Davis at $10mm and Daniels at $8mm.

It would appear illogical to extend a guy now who has not been healthy in two years.  Like Becton, he can't be franchised economically, which is the sign of a bad pick.  

The best thing for AVT would be to take a chance on him and guaranteed him some money and lower his short-term cap space.  Say like $11mm over two years, and give him a chance to increase it in 2-3 years.  

Otherwise he is a similar spot as Becton, where we let him play year 4 and have no ability to keep him for year 5.  

This is really bad roster management.  

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2 hours ago, batman10023 said:

why should anyone agree to give him a new deal?  he's locked in for 2 years.  it's not like he's amazing and can hold out.

you know how these guys operate, and yes you can hold on to him for 2 years....but i wonder if you want that distraction in your building for a guy who is possibly not that great. i get Cousins because he was a borderline franchise QB....Fields is an unknown relatively speaking.

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7 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Show me one mock draft that had him in the first round.  I looked for a long time and couldn't find one.

Right off the top 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/OL

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-interior-offensive-lineman-rankings

https://theathletic.com/2424505/2021/03/04/top-offensive-guards-centers-for-2021-nfl-draft-all-about-position-flexibility/
 

 

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