Hop on the Bowers train or get left in the dust

[RedBeardedSavage]

Just now, bonkertons said:

lol should this be a caveat with every post?  Maybe I'll put it in my signature.  "I love Brock Bowers but only if he runs faster than a 4.6"

If only Bowers tested and tested well, he could have gone as high as measurables-legend Zack Kuntz.  Now THAT'S a tight end.  Bowers really blew it.

April 10th he has his workout.

I'm asking what would change your mind about drafting him 10?

i.e. at what point are you like, "alright, he's a dope college player but I'm concerned about this translating to the NFL after putting up those #'s"

[Augustiniak]

Just now, RedBeardedSavage said:

April 10th he has his workout.

I'm asking what would change your mind about drafting him 10?

i.e. at what point are you like, "alright, he's a dope college player but I'm concerned about this translating to the NFL after putting up those #'s"

don't think his workout will change much.  you just have to either believe in him or not

[Bobby816]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

Not really. Rodgers has never preferred throwing to TEs in his entire career. Green Bay TEs played in a wasteland.
Jermichael Finley could have/should have been a star. Nope. Rodgers.  The ony TE to do well with him was Jimmy Graham. That's it.  Every other TE on the packers during his tenure was left on an island. Every year guys like Mercedes Lewis and Tonyan.  
 

I don't buy into this. QBs will throw to who's open and are the best playmakers. If Bowers is that. He will throw to him.

Rodgers has a long history of spreading the ball around. Yes he's favored Adams recently. As he should've though. But to have that additional weapon or 2 to where always someone is 1 on 1 and able to win helps. And Bowers at TE is a mismatch for defenses.

[Dcat]

Just now, Bobby816 said:

I don't buy into this. QBs will throw to who's open and are the best playmakers. If Bowers is that. He will throw to him.

Rodgers has a long history of spreading the ball around. Yes he's favored Adams recently. As he should've though. But to have that additional weapon or 2 to where always someone is 1 on 1 and able to win helps. And Bowers at TE is a mismatch for defenses.

He's never favored TEs and comparatively he has barely used them.  The lone exception was Graham and in no way is that worth the #10 pick.

Bowers is just the wrong pick for this Qb,, this team right now considering its needs and would only make sense if we trade down and still take him while collecting a round 2.  We have vastly more important holes to fill than TE. Just no way. JD would be a boob.

[slats]

28 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

The only "elite" talent still on the board for us at 10 will be Bowers.  Whether you like him or not, 99.999999% of the draft boards will have him as BPA.

This will not be true. 

29 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I'm not sure what you mean "there's no value".  If anything there is more value, since elite TEs consistently make less than elite WRs, even if they are putting up similar numbers.

This is bonkers. 😉

First, elite TEs don’t put up elite WR numbers. George Kittle was the #1 receiving TE with 1020 yards last year. That placed him 24th after 23 WRs. Second, you have the value backwards. When you draft a player, it’s for his rookie contract. A near elite level WR has a much higher dollar value than an actually elite TE, so the WR is the significantly better value on the rookie deal. His second contract will come cheaper than even a solid #2 WR, but Joe Douglas doesn’t know if he’s gonna be around for next year’s draft yet. 

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

This will not be true. 

This is bonkers. 😉

First, elite TEs don’t put up elite WR numbers. George Kittle was the #1 receiving TE with 1020 yards last year. That placed him 24th after 23 WRs. Second, you have the value backwards. When you draft a player, it’s for his rookie contract. A near elite level WR has a much higher dollar value than an actually elite TE, so the WR is the significantly better value on the rookie deal. His second contract will come cheaper than even a solid #2 WR, but Joe Douglas doesn’t know if he’s gonna be around for next year’s draft yet. 

interestingly garrett had more first downs last year than kittle but i suspect that has more to do with how many targets the 49ers have including cmc.  

i think if you take bowers at 10 you're saying more about your overall offense, than about the player.  bowers will be good but he's not a home run hitter.  you put him on the jets, and that's more of a ball control offense rather than if you take rome.  

[Bobby816]

4 minutes ago, Dcat said:

He's never favored TEs and comparatively he has barely used them.  The lone exception was Graham and in no way is that worth the #10 pick.

Bowers is just the wrong pick for this Qb,, this team right now considering its needs and would only make sense if we trade down and still take him while collecting a round 2.  We have vastly more important holes to fill than TE. Just no way. JD would be a boob.

We have Garrett Wilson. Bowers or any other guy will never be favored. Which is what you want. Multiple ways to beat a defense. Not 1 guy teams can try and stop and everything else falls into place.

 

Rodgers has never had a star TE. He in fact has made below average guys look average or better at TE. Even at WR over his whole career GB never spent a 1st at WR. He helped make Adams Adams. Nelson Nelson, Cobb Cobb, etc.

He elevates every weapon around him.

Don't take this the wrong way, bc I 100% don't mean it condescendingly... but to say Bowers won't be great with us bc Rodgers hasn't ever had a star TE is lazy.

I'll say it to you like this. It'd be like saying Breece Hall isn't good running the ball to the left side. But the OL on the left side isn't that good. So of course he isn't as good running to the left. Make sense. How can Rodgers be judged on who good he uses his TEs as a legit big time weapon, when he has never really had one. The closest he came was a rather washed up Graham at 33 and 34 years old and still had him produce that late in his career. A 34 year old Graham shouldn't be the valuation of what a 21-22 year old Bowers can be.

[Dcat]

Just now, Bobby816 said:

We have Garrett Wilson. Bowers or any other guy will never be favored. Which is what you want. Multiple ways to beat a defense. Not 1 guy teams can try and stop and everything else falls into place.

 

Rodgers has never had a star TE. He in fact has made below average guys look average or better at TE. Even at WR over his whole career GB never spent a 1st at WR. He helped make Adams Adams. Nelson Nelson, Cobb Cobb, etc.

He elevates every weapon around him.

Don't take this the wrong way, bc I 100% don't mean it condescendingly... but to say Bowers won't be great with us bc Rodgers hasn't ever had a star TE is lazy.

I'll say it to you like this. It'd be like saying Breece Hall isn't good running the ball to the left side. But the OL on the left side isn't that good. So of course he isn't as good running to the left. Make sense. How can Rodgers be judged on who good he uses his TEs as a legit big time weapon, when he has never really had one. The closest he came was a rather washed up Graham at 33 and 34 years old and still had him produce that late in his career. A 34 year old Graham shouldn't be the valuation of what a 21-22 year old Bowers can be.

the Rodgers thing is just one of several reasons not to pick Bowers.  The more important reasons are the URGENT and more important needs of this offense.  TE is a freaking luxury at this point and it makes no sense to me considering this team's present state of affairs.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Dcat said:

the Rodgers thing is just one of several reasons not to pick Bowers.  The more important reasons are the URGENT and more important needs of this offense.  TE is a freaking luxury at this point and it makes no sense to me considering this team's present state of affairs.

rodgers shouldn't factor into this decision.  evaluate the player not the qb who will play 5 more games for the team. 

[bonkertons]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

This will not be true. 

This is bonkers. 😉

First, elite TEs don’t put up elite WR numbers. George Kittle was the #1 receiving TE with 1020 yards last year. That placed him 24th after 23 WRs. Second, you have the value backwards. When you draft a player, it’s for his rookie contract. A near elite level WR has a much higher dollar value than an actually elite TE, so the WR is the significantly better value on the rookie deal. His second contract will come cheaper than even a solid #2 WR, but Joe Douglas doesn’t know if he’s gonna be around for next year’s draft yet. 

lol are we really talking about "rookie contract value"?  C'mon man... 

If you want to look at 2023, sure, but what about 2022?  Kelce was 8th overall in yards, about 180 less than Davante Adams for half the cap hit.  Or Andrews being 6th in yardage in 2021 - that's ahead of guys like Tyreek, Diggs, Evans, CeeDee, Waddle.  All for $14M.  

Even if you want to focus on 2023, are you telling me that if Bowers put up identical numbers to Laporta in his rookie season, you'd consider that a disappointment?  IMO that's a more impressive rookie season than the one Garrett had.  There is clear value in having an elite tight end.  The key is that they have to actually become elite.  If that's the type of player you value having on the roster, Bowers gives you the best shot.  There really isn't a debate.

If you feel like you can find that guy in the 3rd, fantastic.  Show him to me.  

[Bobby816]

2 minutes ago, Dcat said:

the Rodgers thing is just one of several reasons not to pick Bowers.  The more important reasons are the URGENT and more important needs of this offense.  TE is a freaking luxury at this point and it makes no sense to me considering this team's present state of affairs.

And what needs do we have? Seriously I'm asking. Is a backup LT an urgent need? The word backup would imply NO. Never mind than Anyone at 10 outside of Alt (almost guaranteed he wont be available) or Fashanu aren't LTs/ Everyone else has been a RT. So of the argument is to have depth behind Smith bc he gets injured. Fuaga, Latham, etc aren't offering that. You could argue even if we drafted a guy like Fashanu that the staff very well might favor a guy like Warren a whole year in the system and a whole other year to develop to play over the rookie.

WR a bigger need? This I could get behind and it falls in line with my line of thinking that I prefer weapon at 10. But let's play the other side of this. Williams lets say is healthy Week 1. So no matter who you draft (let's say Odunze). Is at best WR3. BUT.... is that rookie for sure starting over Lazard who Rodgers trusts. So that rookie very well might be WR4.

Bowers at worst TE2 right away.

[Dcat]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

rodgers shouldn't factor into this decision.  evaluate the player not the qb who will play 5 more games for the team. 

Let's just ignore the immediate needs of the team because our QB will be around for the next 5 years, right?  ROdgers will be here 1, maybe 2 years. Better places to invest pick 10 to help this win-now team.  TE is like one of the slowest positions to show productivity.  See Hockenson.  LaPorta was an aberration.   You want Bowers?  Then get us another premium pick in middle of rd 2 somewhere please so we can draft what is more needed.  Not buying into the Bowers being the next Tony Gonzalez, TBH either.  

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Dcat said:

Let's just ignore the immediate needs of the team because our QB will be around for the next 5 years, right?  ROdgers will be here 1, maybe 2 years. Better places to invest pick 10 to help this win-now team.  TE is like one of the slowest positions to show productivity.  See Hockenson.  LaPorta was an aberration.   You want Bowers?  Then get us another premium pick in middle of rd 2 somewhere please so we can draft what is more needed.  Not buying into the Bowers being the next Tony Gonzalez, TBH either.  

immediate needs of team are OL and playmaker, followed by qb succession plan.  watch bowers on youtube and you see he's often in the slot, he's really an oversized slot wr who beats dbs b/c of his size/athleticism.  i don't believe rodgers is here much longer.  

[slats]

1 hour ago, bonkertons said:

lol are we really talking about "rookie contract value"?  C'mon man... 

If you want to look at 2023, sure, but what about 2022?  Kelce was 8th overall in yards, about 180 less than Davante Adams for half the cap hit.  Or Andrews being 6th in yardage in 2021 - that's ahead of guys like Tyreek, Diggs, Evans, CeeDee, Waddle.  All for $14M.  

Even if you want to focus on 2023, are you telling me that if Bowers put up identical numbers to Laporta in his rookie season, you'd consider that a disappointment?  IMO that's a more impressive rookie season than the one Garrett had.  There is clear value in having an elite tight end.  The key is that they have to actually become elite.  If that's the type of player you value having on the roster, Bowers gives you the best shot.  There really isn't a debate.

If you feel like you can find that guy in the 3rd, fantastic.  Show him to me.  

You’re in love, that’s cool, but being in love gets GMs fired. Look where you are here, Bowers is already the leading receiving TE in the league, thus justifying the pick! Now, Joe Douglas could feel the same way but, if he pulls the trigger on a TE at #10, he is sticking his neck that much further out because he’ll have to be right. Bowers will have to be the best TE now. An 800 yard type season -awesome for a TE at any stage of his career- will be viewed as a disappointment. He’ll be compared to the WRs who went after him, and the comparisons are unlikely to favorable. If one of the OTs misses most of the season, there will be a revolt from that crowd. Meanwhile, if he simply drafts a very good starter at WR or OT, the scrutiny will be significantly diminished. 
  
Bowers is a pure boom or bust pick with significant amounts of bust potential because, if Bowers is just a very good TE, he’s a bust. That’s the risk JD is facing there, and I believe it’s a risk he’ll be looking to avoid. He should have a shot at either WR #3 or OT #2, and that’s where I expect him to land. 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, slats said:

You’re in love, that’s cool, but being in love gets GMs fired. Look where you are here, Bowers is already the leading receiving TE in the league, thus justifying the pick! Now, Joe Douglas could feel the same way but, if he pulls the trigger on a TE at #10, he is sticking his neck that much further out because he’ll have to be right. Bowers will have to be the best TE now. An 800 yard type season -awesome for a TE at any stage of his career- will be viewed as a disappointment. He’ll be compared to the WRs who went after him, and the comparisons are unlikely to favorable. If one of the OTs misses most of the season, there will be a revolt from that crowd. Meanwhile, if he simply drafts a very good starter at WR or OT, the scrutiny will be significantly diminished. 
  
Bowers is a pure boom or bust pick with significant amounts of bust potential because, if Bowers is just a very good TE, he’s a bust. That’s the risk JD is facing there, and I believe it’s a risk he’ll be looking to avoid. He should have a shot at either WR #3 or OT #2, and that’s where I expect him to land. 

Again, if you’re jd the problem with taking a tackle at 10 is that the guy may not play much this year, and the playoffs are basically about rodgers staying healthy.  And a lot of rodgers staying healthy isn’t about merely protecting him from hits, it’s about him not having fluke injuries.  So if you’re jd, are you taking fashanu at 10 and then telling the jet fan base ok, we have our LT of the future, though i may not be here drafting in 2025.  It’s a tough sell after drafting McDonald and not using him much at all. 

If they go OL in round 1 i would prefer after a trade back.  

I like bowers, i think he will be a good pro, but the best TEs aren’t getting 50 yard tds and 1500 yards.  They move chains and present mismatch problems for defenses.  You look at kittle’s stats and they’re not amazing, yet he is a difference maker.  But is kittles worth the 10th pick, probably not.  

[bonkertons]

27 minutes ago, slats said:

You’re in love, that’s cool, but being in love gets GMs fired. Look where you are here, Bowers is already the leading receiving TE in the league, thus justifying the pick! Now, Joe Douglas could feel the same way but, if he pulls the trigger on a TE at #10, he is sticking his neck that much further out because he’ll have to be right. Bowers will have to be the best TE now. An 800 yard type season -awesome for a TE at any stage of his career- will be viewed as a disappointment. He’ll be compared to the WRs who went after him, and the comparisons are unlikely to favorable. If one of the OTs misses most of the season, there will be a revolt from that crowd. Meanwhile, if he simply drafts a very good starter at WR or OT, the scrutiny will be significantly diminished. 
  
Bowers is a pure boom or bust pick with significant amounts of bust potential because, if Bowers is just a very good TE, he’s a bust. That’s the risk JD is facing there, and I believe it’s a risk he’ll be looking to avoid. He should have a shot at either WR #3 or OT #2, and that’s where I expect him to land. 

You're better than that, Slats.  We were talking financials, so obviously the best TEs were brought up as an example of what his dollar amount would be in a best case(or worst case, depending on how you look at it) scenario.  No one is saying he's a lock to be the best TE in the league, or even an elite one.  As far as TE prospects I've seen though, he has the best chance of reaching that level.  

 

We have no shot at WR3 barring a trade-up, so I'd abort any hope you have of one of them dropping to 10.  OT2 should be there though.  While I'll admit there is risk in going the Bowers route, there is also clearly risk in taking an OT over him.  Especially an OT intended to start his career as a backup.  If Bowers ends up reaching Kelce level production while your OT turns into Mike McGlinchey, you don't think that'll end up being added to the all-time Jets draft blunders list?  Or worse, the OT ends up being Becton.

 

There is risk regardless of the direction they go.  OT might be the safest choice, but Bowers is clearly the biggest upside choice.  Again, you can get a Fautanu in any draft.  You'll never see another Brock Bowers.  Gather your sack and roll the dice.

[playtowinthegame]

IF JD can trade down, still get Bowers, and get a 2nd round pick in this year's draft, then we are going to win the Super Bowl. 

[Jetkwondo]

2 hours ago, Dcat said:

He's never favored TEs and comparatively he has barely used them.  The lone exception was Graham and in no way is that worth the #10 pick.

Bowers is just the wrong pick for this Qb,, this team right now considering its needs and would only make sense if we trade down and still take him while collecting a round 2.  We have vastly more important holes to fill than TE. Just no way. JD would be a boob.

I agree and I'm starting to see Bowers in the same light. Also those breakdown metrics of where Rodgers likes to throw is to the outside, rarely over the middle making the TE position not as valuable to him overall. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

 

If M Williams isn't gonna be ready - you gotta draft a playmaker. 

[Jetkwondo]

Rodgers who hates throwing over the middle to avoid int's won't trust a TE, especially over the middle, who has these metrics on contested catches. Bowers does have some flaws in the go up and get it area....

 

To those points, PFF backs up that his underlying receiving metrics leave something to be desired even when compared to other tight ends:

• Contested catches: 2 (tied for 73rd)
• Contested catch rate: 22.2% (~25th percentile)

From this article:  https://www.ganggreennation.com/2024/1/5/24022153/a-unicorn-appears-a-draft-profile-on-tight-end-brock-bowers-georgia-new-york-jets-pff

[slats]

21 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

You're better than that, Slats.  We were talking financials, so obviously the best TEs were brought up as an example of what his dollar amount would be in a best case(or worst case, depending on how you look at it) scenario.  No one is saying he's a lock to be the best TE in the league, or even an elite one.

He needs to be to justify the pick. 
 
Financially? The #10 pick will get 4 years/$21M 100% guaranteed. In the NFL today, only 12 TEs have that kind of guaranteed money in their deals. The $5.2M/year would make him the 23rd highest paid TE as a rookie. 
 
At least 25 WRs have that much guaranteed money, 13 with twice that amount, and 11 who average more than that per year. That same salary would make him the #39 WR, just ahead of Garrett Wilson. OTs break down similarly. 
 
Financially, the higher valued positions are the dramatically better value, and it’s not even close. You may not place much credence in that, but you can bet that the GM does. 
 

[Augustiniak]

11 minutes ago, slats said:

He needs to be to justify the pick. 
 
Financially? The #10 pick will get 4 years/$21M 100% guaranteed. In the NFL today, only 12 TEs have that kind of guaranteed money in their deals. The $5.2M/year would make him the 23rd highest paid TE as a rookie. 
 
At least 25 WRs have that much guaranteed money, 13 with twice that amount, and 11 who average more than that per year. That same salary would make him the #39 WR, just ahead of Garrett Wilson. OTs break down similarly. 
 
Financially, the higher valued positions are the dramatically better value, and it’s not even close. You may not place much credence in that, but you can bet that the GM does. 
 

The 2 best uses of the pick are 1) rome or nabers, or 2) trade back, get extra day 2 pick (ideally 2nd rounder even if the jets throw back a 4th).  In scenario 2 you take OT in round 1 and wr in round 2.  

Using a TE in round 1 is very risky as has been written here.  If we knew now that bowers would be as good as kittle, i think many here would be ok with the pick.  The problem is that if he’s not.

[bonkertons]

25 minutes ago, slats said:

He needs to be to justify the pick. 
 
Financially? The #10 pick will get 4 years/$21M 100% guaranteed. In the NFL today, only 12 TEs have that kind of guaranteed money in their deals. The $5.2M/year would make him the 23rd highest paid TE as a rookie. 
 
At least 25 WRs have that much guaranteed money, 13 with twice that amount, and 11 who average more than that per year. That same salary would make him the #39 WR, just ahead of Garrett Wilson. OTs break down similarly. 
 
Financially, the higher valued positions are the dramatically better value, and it’s not even close. You may not place much credence in that, but you can bet that the GM does. 
 

I just don't understand this mentality.  This is probably the worst way to evaluate who you should be drafting with a 1st round pick.  Not need, not BPA, not who has a chance to help you the most in year one....but salary % compared to the rest of the league?  I highly doubt JD gives a **** about this, considering he was looking at Mayer at 15 last year.

 

Even still, how many backup OTs are making $5.2M per year?  Should JD take credence in that?  If you want to go with a WR instead, that's fine, just show me one who is better than Bowers that will actually still be available.

 

Really all of this comes down to how they view Bowers.  If they think he'll be elite, I highly doubt cap% or 1st round TE success rate will factor into their decision at all...nor should it.  

[Augustiniak]

15 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I just don't understand this mentality.  This is probably the worst way to evaluate who you should be drafting with a 1st round pick.  Not need, not BPA, not who has a chance to help you the most in year one....but salary % compared to the rest of the league?  I highly doubt JD gives a **** about this, considering he was looking at Mayer at 15 last year.

 

Even still, how many backup OTs are making $5.2M per year?  Should JD take credence in that?  If you want to go with a WR instead, that's fine, just show me one who is better than Bowers that will actually still be available.

 

Really all of this comes down to how they view Bowers.  If they think he'll be elite, I highly doubt cap% or 1st round TE success rate will factor into their decision at all...nor should it.  

Even elite TE is not the same as elite wr.  If you take bowers that’s a different offense, than if you say, take MTJ.  

[JETSxWRATH™]

Is this guy really that good or is all this hype a product of a segment of the fan base searching for their next Chrebet type player to root for? I have never seen this much energy surrounding drafting a TE with a top 10 pick

[bonkertons]

5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Even elite TE is not the same as elite wr.  If you take bowers that’s a different offense, than if you say, take MTJ.  

Honestly, I think I might prefer one elite WR and one elite TE vs two elite WRs.  Not that it matters since I don't think MTJ is or will be elite, but still.  

 

What duo would you rather have(assume all of them are at their peak):  Tyreek and Kelce, or Tyreek and Waddle?  And no, I'm not saying Bowers will be the next Kelce.  Just genuinely asking.

[slats]

14 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I just don't understand this mentality.  This is probably the worst way to evaluate who you should be drafting with a 1st round pick.  Not need, not BPA, not who has a chance to help you the most in year one....but salary % compared to the rest of the league?  I highly doubt JD gives a **** about this, considering he was looking at Mayer at 15 last year.

 

Even still, how many backup OTs are making $5.2M per year?  Should JD take credence in that?  If you want to go with a WR instead, that's fine, just show me one who is better than Bowers that will actually still be available.

 

Really all of this comes down to how they view Bowers.  If they think he'll be elite, I highly doubt cap% or 1st round TE success rate will factor into their decision at all...nor should it.  

How many backup TEs have $21M fully guaranteed? Because while his fan club already has him fitted for a gold jacket, he could also easily find himself behind the TE who had the 13th most receiving yards at the position last year as a rookie. 
 
We can discuss the legend of JD almost taking a TE at #15 last year too but, judging by his actions, he clearly preferred a developmental pick at a high value position more. 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, bonkertons said:

Honestly, I think I might prefer one elite WR and one elite TE vs two elite WRs.  Not that it matters since I don't think MTJ is or will be elite, but still.  

 

What duo would you rather have(assume all of them are at their peak):  Tyreek and Kelce, or Tyreek and Waddle?  And no, I'm not saying Bowers will be the next Kelce.  Just genuinely asking.

if bowers is good nobody here is going to complain.  but, with an old injured qb, one young healthy wr and an OL that still needs tackles, if you take a TE at 10 that's a bold move. if you're wrong, after the wilson and becton picks, you're going to wait a while be a gm again if ever

[bonkertons]

Just now, JETSxWRATH™ said:

Is this guy really that good or is all this hype a product of a segment of the fan base searching for their next Chrebet type player to root for? I have never seen this much energy surrounding drafting a TE with a top 10 pick

He's been getting hyped as a top-5 pick for over a year now.  The only thing that's happened since then was an ankle injury that shelved him for like 5 weeks I think.  His play on the field though matched the hype.  The closer the draft has come, the more people have harped on the TE conundrum, which is why his stock has dropped to the point where we even have a chance to draft him.  For a long time it was considered a near lock that the Chargers would take him at 5, but now that seems unlikely - especially considering their WR depth at the moment.

 

So yes, he is really that good.  This hype ain't new.  You're only seeing him pop up now because, prior to this point, the idea of even being able to draft him seemed like a fantasy.  

[bonkertons]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

How many backup TEs have $21M fully guaranteed? Because while his fan club already has him fitted for a gold jacket, he could also easily find himself behind the TE who had the 13th most receiving yards at the position last year as a rookie. 
 
We can discuss the legend of JD almost taking a TE at #15 last year too but, judging by his actions, he clearly preferred a developmental pick at a high value position more. 

Well, Mayer ain't Bowers.  The point still stands though.  If this was clearly "no TE territory", Mayer wouldn't have even been on their board.

 

...and I dunno, how much did Kincaid have guaranteed?  I mean he was coming in behind a pretty good TE in Knox, right?  Decent, at least.  They clearly drafted him because they thought he could be a game-changer, which it clearly looks like he will be.

 

I love the hyperbole as well.  Wanting to draft Bowers = locking him into the HOF.  OK bud.  Whatever you say.

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

 

If M Williams isn't gonna be ready - you gotta draft a playmaker. 

Saleh said he’s on the same timeline that Breece was on. Week 1 is the goal. Either way, another dynamic playmaker would be fantastic 

[RedBeardedSavage]

6 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

He's been getting hyped as a top-5 pick for over a year now.  The only thing that's happened since then was an ankle injury that shelved him for like 5 weeks I think.  His play on the field though matched the hype.  The closer the draft has come, the more people have harped on the TE conundrum, which is why his stock has dropped to the point where we even have a chance to draft him.  For a long time it was considered a near lock that the Chargers would take him at 5, but now that seems unlikely - especially considering their WR depth at the moment.

 

So yes, he is really that good.  This hype ain't new.  You're only seeing him pop up now because, prior to this point, the idea of even being able to draft him seemed like a fantasy.  

Because quarterbacks, tackles, edges, and receivers have risen. 

Travis Kelce aside, nearly every team would prefer a 'good' starter at those positions to a 'good' TE. Mark Andrews and George Kittle are damn good players, but I'd bet nearly every team would rather have the second or third-best OT or WR in the league as opposed to either of them. 

We're a team with two aging offensive tackles, one routinely injured and the other recovering from pec surgery. We've got Mike Williams who might not be ready for camp.

Bowers is a luxury pick, and an expensive one from an opportunity cost standpoint. 

[PS17]

Screw Bowers. 

 

[ChuckkieB]

My gut says no to picking Bowers because there are more immediate needs that can be addressed with the #10 pick like WR or OL.  That being said, is it better to take an elite TE prospect and one of the top ranked prospects in the entire draft over the 3rd or 4th ranked WR or OL? Picking the TE is probably a better move for the future of this team but the WR and OL are better picks for a team that is seemingly built to win now.  I legitimately don't know what the right choice is and I definitely don't trust our GM who is on the hot seat to make that call either.

[slats]

12 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Well, Mayer ain't Bowers.  The point still stands though.  If this was clearly "no TE territory", Mayer wouldn't have even been on their board.

 

...and I dunno, how much did Kincaid have guaranteed?  I mean he was coming in behind a pretty good TE in Knox, right?  Decent, at least.  They clearly drafted him because they thought he could be a game-changer, which it clearly looks like he will be.

 

I love the hyperbole as well.  Wanting to draft Bowers = locking him into the HOF.  OK bud.  Whatever you say.

Taking a TE at #25 is different, with a total guarantee of just $13.4M. Still puts him 13th amongst TEs, which is high. Not Kyle Pitts high, which is #1 for something of a disappointment. 

You're the one practically guaranteeing that he’ll be elite. I’m saying you had better be damn sure you’re right if you’re spending a top ten pick on him. My take all along has been I don’t think JD will be that sure. I think he’ll take the safer, higher valued position there, instead. If he does take Bowers, I’ll root like hell for him. I’d love an elite TE. History says the odds are against it.