Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 hour ago, slimjasi said: IF being the operative word. Yeah. If. Taking the 3rd/4th best OT prospect and hoping he's a franchise LT is a pretty enormous "if", too. The draft is all about "If's". At 10 I'd rather roll the dice on a guy who can be one of the elite guys at his position very early in his career. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paradis Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 2 hours ago, Doggin94it said: Not really. It's a non-premium position because there are relatively few true difference makers at the position: Kittle, Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta ... McBride? Hockenson is good but not great - none of the rest of the list will keep defensive coordinators up at night. Your argument actually works completely contrary to your position. It's hella hard to lock down a TE who can really be "The Guy" and those that have one, are at a distinct advantage in a dozen ways Whether he's the priority pick, or if we trust our staff to development him -- all valid points. Your drunken take of "TE is duuuuhhh not a round 1 talent, gus-gus " is for the birds. For real. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 6 minutes ago, slats said: Except when you’re talking about a TE or WR drafted 10th overall, in which case they’d cost exactly the same - making the TE half the actual value of the WR. In a world where both the TE and WR work out, the TE will be much cheaper in the long run, starting with the 5th year option. And that's true even if the TE ends up the best in the game and the WR is outside the top 10 at his position. It's not a defining reason to take the TE over the WR but it sure is a nice little benefit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: I mean, if you're saying the upside of an elite TE isn't that high, I dunno what to tell you. Hockenson and Kincaid were big-time difference makers on playoff teams. TE is pretty much a premium position these days if you can find a top 5-10 guy at the position, for about half the cap charge of an elite WR. If you told me Bowers was going to be a truly elite TE, of course I’d do it. I’m just skeptical that will end up being the case and worried about the implications of missing out on a chance to take a good WR or tackle. In the first round, I want premium positions with freakish athleticism, please 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augustiniak Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 2 minutes ago, slimjasi said: If you told me Bowers was going to be a truly elite TE, of course I’d do it. I’m just skeptical that will end up being the case and worried about the implications of missing out on a chance to take a good WR or tackle. In the first round, I want premium positions with freakish athleticism, please Begs the question, what is bowers athletically? I love his highlights. He runs routes, gets open and has good hands. Wherever he goes i think he’s going to be good b/c he just seems like a football player. But at 10 it could be the last pick jd ever makes if he’s not that guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 20 hours ago, Untouchable said: Why are you telling me no when you’re basically agreeing with what I’m saying? Harrison, Nabers and Odunze are likely gone by #10. Alt, the one real OT with legitimate all-pro upside is bound to be gone. So what are you doing? Taking the 4th best wideout? An OT who isn’t seeing the field in Year 1 barring injury after you’ve drafted Warren and Mitchell is back to back years? Or do you take possibly the best TE prospect ever when you’ve largely had a black hole at the position ever since the Mickey Shuler days and your current best player at the position is nearly 30, largely average and entering the last year of his deal? Discarding Bowers because dudes like Kelce and Kittle were drafted outside of the 1st round is goofy. 90% of the starting OL in the league were mid-late round picks and UDFA’s. Yet everyone wants to act like we’re dicked over a barrel if Carter Warren has to start a few games this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleDown Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 4 minutes ago, Paradis said: Your argument actually works completely contrary to your position. It actually doesn't. What it suggests is that TE is an extremely difficult position to project to the NFL. The top producing NFL TEs are regularly taken in the mid to late rounds, even the all time greats. I keep seeing "sure thing" thrown out there to describe Bowers. Statistically speaking, it couldn't be farther from the truth. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 7 minutes ago, slimjasi said: If you told me Bowers was going to be a truly elite TE, of course I’d do it. I’m just skeptical that will end up being the case and worried about the implications of missing out on a chance to take a good WR or tackle. In the first round, I want premium positions with freakish athleticism, please Obviously you take Bowers because you think he'll be elite. If you think he'll just be "OK" or "above average" you don't. We're chasing upside here. And Bowers has that freakish athleticism for a guy his size my guy (see below). On the level of Pitts? No. But hardly anyone has that... We're just gonna have to agree to disagree when it comes to the premium position stuff. There's nuance to it these days and I think it IS premium when its an elite guy. Score Breakdown Score Breakdown Production Score 99 2024 Combine TE Rank: 1st Athleticism Score *est 86 2024 Combine TE Rank: 4th Total Score 96 2024 Combine TE Rank: 1st 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: Yeah. If. Taking the 3rd/4th best OT prospect and hoping he's a franchise LT is a pretty enormous "if", too. The draft is all about "If's". At 10 I'd rather roll the dice on a guy who can be one of the elite guys at his position very early in his career. I get to, but Inlook at the list of first round TEs since 2009 posted by @UntouchableCrew and my ass starts to itch. Sorry, I’d take a tackle, WR, or trade down 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paradis Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 5 minutes ago, slimjasi said: If you told me Bowers was going to be a truly elite TE, of course I’d do it. I’m just skeptical that will end up being the case and worried about the implications of missing out on a chance to take a good WR or tackle. In the first round, I want premium positions with freakish athleticism, please Oh Slimsy come-- 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 6 minutes ago, slimjasi said: I get to, but Inlook at the list of first round TEs since 2009 posted by @UntouchableCrew and my ass starts to itch. Teams have gotten a lot smarter about TEs since OJ Howard, dude. Did you not see the most recent ones I listed off? Every first TE off the board since 2019 has been a hit, including the two 2nd rounders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paradis Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 51 minutes ago, DoubleDown said: It actually doesn't. What it suggests is that TE is an extremely difficult position to project to the NFL. The top producing NFL TEs are regularly taken in the mid to late rounds, even the all time greats. I keep seeing "sure thing" thrown out there to describe Bowers. Statistically speaking, it couldn't be farther from the truth. Yea, no kidding and Bowers is the best TE prospect in the history of the NFL.... So, there's that. "Top producing TEs can be found in mid-to-late rounds" might be the most misleading argument since "I'll Just Pull Out, honey" The hit rate on TEs mid to late is gross. To say you can find Kittle later, is the greatest example of "cherry picking" your stat in the history of stats. Theres 4068376 other TEs in that zone who never made it on the field on Sundays. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: And Bowers has that freakish athleticism my guy. This is the only reason I’d even consider him at all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 4 minutes ago, slimjasi said: Sorry, I’d take a tackle, WR, or trade down And no one is trading up with us for more than 75 cents on the dollar if all the good QB/WR/OTs are gone dude, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleDown Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 3 minutes ago, Paradis said: Yea, no kidding and Bowers is the best TE prospect in the history of the NFL.... So, there's that. "Top producing TEs can be found in mid-to-late rounds" might be the most misleading argument since "I'll Just Pull Out, honey" The hit rate on TEs mid to late is gross. To say you can find Kittle later, is the greatest example of "cherry picking" your stat in the history stats. theres 4068376 other TEs in that space who never made it on the field on sundays. I'm right. Just give up on this. Blue chip prospects at premium positions please. I understand taking a shot at an elite TE in the late first, early second after all the blue chips at OT, WR, QB, CB, and PR are off the board. It makes no sense at #10 where the Jets will be looking at players like Alt, Nabers, Fuaga, Odunze, and Thomas assuming that the run on QBs happens as predicted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Just now, Jetsfan80 said: In a world where both the TE and WR work out, the TE will be much cheaper in the long run. It's not a defining reason to take the TE over the WR but it sure is a nice little benefit. Working out for a WR taken at #10 “only” requires top 20-type (if that high) production. Say, over 1000 yards and 6 TDs. Those same numbers represent the top producing TE in the league last year, George Kittle. That’s the bar when you’re drafting a position whose current franchise tag value is a few million$ less than what ACL-recovering, soon-to-be-30 year old Mike Williams just signed here for. It is not a benefit to get less value out of his rookie contract, I don’t care how you try to spin that. Listen, I’ll root for him if he’s the pick. I understand the hype. Problem is these hyped up guys often don’t live up to that hype. The fact that Bowers is a little on the small side doesn’t help. Bottom line for me is that I don’t think Joe Douglas will pull the trigger on a TE. It’s too big a risk for a GM with his job on the line. Drafting a low-valued position with a steep learning curve in the NFL at #10 overall when he needs immediate production? I simply just don’t see it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigRy56 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 I would still go OT but Brock Bowers is an elite blue chip prospect, without a doubt. It would be a fascinating add and give the offense a real competitive advantage. There’s maybe 5-10 of these TEs in the NFL and it would be nice for the Jets to have one of them 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 3 minutes ago, DoubleDown said: Blue chip prospects at premium positions please. Bowers is a blue chip prospect at what has become basically a premium position. DT used to not be a premium position until a bunch of those guys became awesome at rushing the passer. Then, DTs started getting paid more than a lot of elite DE's and pass-rushing OLBs. TE is heading in the same direction. The salaries just haven't quite caught up yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 4 minutes ago, Paradis said: Yea, no kidding and Bowers is the best TE prospect in the history of the NFL.... So, there's that. LMAO @Warfish 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry McCockinner Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 23 minutes ago, slats said: Except when you’re talking about a TE or WR drafted 10th overall, in which case they’d cost exactly the same - making the TE half the actual value of the WR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 minute ago, slimjasi said: LMAO @Warfish Rather than laughing at it, humor me and assume he's correct: Is the greatest TE prospect of all-time worth the 10th overall? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirlancemehlot Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 21 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said: Thread title says train but now you’re saying bus? Sure it’s not a wagon? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: And no one is trading up with us for more than 75 cents on the dollar if all the good QB/WR/OTs are gone dude, lol. There’s no chance ALL of the good QBs/WRs/TEs are gone by 10. Think about what you are saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 minute ago, slimjasi said: There’s no chance ALL of the good QBs/WRs/TEs are gone by 10. Think about what you are saying. I should have said worthy QB/WR/OT/TEs. There are a couple OT prospects I think are probably getting overrated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Untouchable Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said: Bowers is a blue chip prospect at what has become basically a premium position. DT used to not be a premium position until a bunch of those guys became awesome at rushing the passer. Then, DTs started getting paid more than a lot of elite DE's and pass-rushing OLBs. TE is heading in the same direction. People still maintain that OG isn’t a premium position either. Despite completely average guards like Kevin Dotson and Jonah Jackson now making $16-17 million a year. People are way too hung up on these “premium” labels. Bowers can break games open and be used in a variety of different ways. Why so many are against adding a player of his caliber when we’re about as “all in” as all in can get over the next 2-3 years is beyond me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleDown Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: Bowers is a blue chip prospect at what has become basically a premium position. It's still mostly a dime a dozen position, but you are entitled to your opinion. Give me the OT or WR all day, every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 9 minutes ago, Paradis said: Oh Slimsy come-- What about the dude in your avatar? Came into the league hurt, changed coordinators, had crap at QB… Conklin, Ruckert, and Kuntz is not a terrible TE room. The need is far more apparent at WR where you have Wilson, a recovering Williams, Lazard(?), and then the UDFAs. The WR is both the greater need and the better value. Unless you’re in love, but that’s when GMs tend to get into trouble. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 minute ago, Untouchable said: People still maintain that OG isn’t a premium position either. Despite completely average guards like Kevin Dotson and Jonah Jackson now making $16-17 million a year. Exactly. And G's getting valued more was a direct response to DTs rushing the passer more than ever before. DTs and G's became premium positions seemingly overnight. If a position impacts the passing game on either side of the ball, their importance has only heightened over time. The game changes constantly these days. So why treat TEs like its still 2005? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said: Rather than laughing at it, humor me and assume he's correct: Would you still disagree with him being a worthy pick at 10? Or course not, but that’s quite an assumption Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Just now, slimjasi said: Or course not, but that’s quite an assumption Certainly but you agreeing with my premise suggests your "only premium position freaky athletes at 10" position needs amending. There are a few "if's" to add into that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 3 minutes ago, slimjasi said: Or course not, but that’s quite an assumption 2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: Certainly but you agreeing with my premise suggests your "only premium position freaky athletes at 10" position needs amending. There are a few "if's" to add into that. Plus he's saying greatest NFL TE prospect of all-time. That's not the same as saying he's a sure thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: Bowers is a blue chip prospect at what has become basically a premium position. Only RBs and kickers make less money. Difficult to say that the league thinks it’s a premium position. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: Rather than laughing at it, humor me and assume he's correct Did you humor people when they claimed Zach Wilson was a super duper awesome bestest ever prospect? Naaa, me neither. You and I have never bought into such hyperbole, why start now. Bowers is being quite over-hyped at this point as "best ever". Yes, TE could be worth the 10th overall pick, absolutely. But is THIS specific TE, for THIS specific Jets team as it's constructed now with Conklin/Ruckert/Kuntz already on the roster, the place for a #10 overall TE? I'd say no. TE's are notorious for needing time to get NFL ready. The NFL is a heck of lot tougher on TE's than college was. Most of the great pass catcher TE's are piss poor blockers, run game liabilities and even Rodgers fanbois think we're gonna need a huge Hall-led run game in 2024. And few of the hyped TE's actually become amazing production TE's (even the guy I really, really liked a few years ago, TJ Hockenson, only the last two years has lived up to that hype). For a clearly, unquestionably, win-now, short-term, save JD's job built team, TE is IMO the wrong call. For long-term? Maybe he's the right call, admittedly, I'd say it depends on which WR's and OT's drop, because they're higher priority, harder to get elite talent/production, more impactful generally, and I think I can replace 75%-85% of so of what Bowers brings in the passing game by drafting a Cade Stover in the 4th, personally. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 9 minutes ago, Untouchable said: People still maintain that OG isn’t a premium position either. Despite completely average guards like Kevin Dotson and Jonah Jackson now making $16-17 million a year. Reminds me of when Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack were both generational, all-time talents at guard, and then both went top ten, and both kinda sucked. It’s risky to take low value positions high, no matter the hype. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: Plus he's saying greatest NFL TE prospect of all-time. That's not the same as saying he's a sure thing. Hmmm so, if I am to believe the hype, this draft has: the best WR prospect since at least Randy Moss AND the best TE prospect ever. It’s possible, but color me skeptical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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