Hop on the Bowers train or get left in the dust

[ChuckkieB]

No to Bowers no matter what. WR or OL is the way to go, and if a QB falls to 10, THAT is the pick. 

[Tranquilo]

 

 

[Tranquilo]

 

[Morrissey]

You are "ALL IN" on 1 year of Aaron Rodgers but are gonna risk going into the season with two 33 year old tackles (one who is guaranteed to miss at least 4-6 games), AVT who has played in what 7 games in 2 years? and with little to no depth on the rest of the OL. Not to mention both those tackles are on 1 year deals. Hell whatever linemen you take at 10 could beat out John Simpson in training camp if you actually let him.

Only people with zero foresight thinks Bowers is the right pick.

[Bobby816]

38 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

I didn't miss the point, I just don't agree with it.

Positional value absolutely matters. FWIW, I criticized JD for trading up for an OG in the first round a few years ago, a move that has been a bust thus far due to injuries.

Let's say hypothetically Justin Tucker was a first round pick and went on to be the greatest kicker in NFL history.  That wouldn't suddenly justify the drafting of kickers in the first round because in reality they are readily available as late round picks or UDFAs.  It's the same point with TEs who are regularly drafted in the mid to late rounds and go on to have very productive careers.

It's one thing to draft a blue chip TE prospect in the bottom of 1st, top the of 2nd range when most or all of the blue chip prospects at the premium positions are off the board (drafting Breece early in the 2nd was a great move).  But that is not going to be the case at #10, where the Jets will be looking at players like Alt, Odunze, Thomas, Fuaga, and Fashanu potentially staring them in the face after four QBs are projected to go in the top 10.

You don't get to draft blue chip prospects at premium positions very often.  When given the chance, you must pull the trigger.  And you most certainly must not pass over them for a relatively easily filled position like TE.

Conklin is a solid, reliable vet.  Ruckert has talent, has showed decent skills on the field when given an opportunity, and is going into his third year of development.  Kuntz has elite metrics and is actively being developed.  If the Jets want to draft a developmental TE mid to late, I'm fine with that given Conklin is going into his last year.

I say draft sure things. I don’t care what position it is really. I mean DE is a premium position and WMac player like 16% of our defensive snaps last year.

 

I think how Bowers is used has to play into it. Hes a 3 down TE that can catch snd block. If used right he should be a 1k 6td plus guy. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

If we knew bowers would be similar to kittle you do it.  But if he isn’t you’ve drafted a meh TE when you passed up franchise LTs and quality wrs.  

I mean we all get that this is an opportunity cost deal.  TE is a borderline non-premium position and it only matters if you have a true difference maker.

But it's also kind of been proven wrong lately, no?  The divisional/championship round of the playoffs has been littered with teams with high-end TEs of late.  Teams are trying to get quicker on defense to combat all the great passing attacks out there, but by doing so they're allowing opposing offenses with TE's worth a damn to create matchup problems; quick but tiny LBs/Safeties can't handle these guys.

TE is only a non-premium position currently because that position gets hurt often.  The impact, however, is undeniable.

[Ghost420]

1 hour ago, Morrissey said:

You are "ALL IN" on 1 year of Aaron Rodgers but are gonna risk going into the season with two 33 year old tackles (one who is guaranteed to miss at least 4-6 games), AVT who has played in what 7 games in 2 years? and with little to no depth on the rest of the OL. Not to mention both those tackles are on 1 year deals. Hell whatever linemen you take at 10 could beat out John Simpson in training camp if you actually let him.

Only people with zero foresight thinks Bowers is the right pick.

Yes we should draft a tackle at 10 hoping he can beat out a guard. If anything trade back if they don't want Bowers. 

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean we all get that this is an opportunity cost deal.  TE is a borderline non-premium position and it only matters if you have a true difference maker.

But it's also kind of been proven wrong lately, no?  The divisional/championship round of the playoffs has been littered with teams with high-end TEs of late.  Teams are trying to get quicker on defense to combat all the great passing attacks out there, but by doing so they're allowing opposing offenses with TE's worth a damn to create matchup problems; quick but tiny LBs/Safeties can't handle these guys.

TE is only a non-premium position currently because that position gets hurt often.  The impact, however, is undeniable.

I like him.  I haven’t like these other top alleged generational TEs coming out.  Bowers is different athletically, more sudden.  I think he will be good in the nfl.  I would prefer rome or nabers.  But i believe if the jets draft bowers and throw him out there opening day, he’s going to get targeted 10 times and he will generate first downs.  

[Morrissey]

29 minutes ago, Ghost420 said:

Yes we should draft a tackle at 10 hoping he can beat out a guard. If anything trade back if they don't want Bowers. 

yes ignore everything i said in the post your responded to.

[Guilhermezmc]

2 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

 

 

The guy is just good, I'd rather have another weapon on the outside like Rome, Nabers or MHJ and let Garrett feast on the slot but I take Bowers any day of the week.

[Doggin94it]

I want no part of Bowers at 10, I'm sorry. TE is simply not a position that should be drafted in the first round, let alone top 10. To make that type of investment worthwhile you basically need to get Gronk/Kelce/Kittle/Gonzalez out of the pick, and you can't bet on any rookie - I don't care who - cracking that level.

Who are the top 10 TEs in the league? Kittle (5th rd pick), Kelce (3rd), Andrews (3d), Hockenson (high 1st), LaPorta (2d), Goedert (2d), McBride (2d), Njoku (late 1), Pitts (high 1st), Schultz (4th). This isn't a position that demands a high draft pick to get elite production from, and the rookie slot number for a TE at 10 (about 6.1M per year) already has him paid like a decent vet free agent (just a little south of Conklin's 6.7M APY, so the "dollars saved against replacement FA" on a TE's rookie deal just isn't all that great.

Add in the fact that most rookie TEs need time to acclimate (LaPorta is a massive outlier on that) and don't make a big impact their first seasons, and I see no reason the Jets should be jumping to draft Bowers.

[Doggin94it]

57 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean we all get that this is an opportunity cost deal.  TE is a borderline non-premium position and it only matters if you have a true difference maker.

But it's also kind of been proven wrong lately, no?  The divisional/championship round of the playoffs has been littered with teams with high-end TEs of late.  Teams are trying to get quicker on defense to combat all the great passing attacks out there, but by doing so they're allowing opposing offenses with TE's worth a damn to create matchup problems; quick but tiny LBs/Safeties can't handle these guys.

TE is only a non-premium position currently because that position gets hurt often.  The impact, however, is undeniable.

Not really. It's a non-premium position because there are relatively few true difference makers at the position: Kittle, Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta ... McBride? Hockenson is good but not great - none of the rest of the list will keep defensive coordinators up at night. 

[playtowinthegame]

2 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

 

 

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean we all get that this is an opportunity cost deal.  TE is a borderline non-premium position and it only matters if you have a true difference maker.

But it's also kind of been proven wrong lately, no?  The divisional/championship round of the playoffs has been littered with teams with high-end TEs of late.  Teams are trying to get quicker on defense to combat all the great passing attacks out there, but by doing so they're allowing opposing offenses with TE's worth a damn to create matchup problems; quick but tiny LBs/Safeties can't handle these guys.

TE is only a non-premium position currently because that position gets hurt often.  The impact, however, is undeniable.

For sure, but the issue is, the “high-end” TEs you are referring to (Kelce, Kittle, LaPorta, etc.,) were almost invariably NOT 1st round picks.
 

The NFL doesn’t seem to be great at scouting that position. How often do these star TEs come from the first round? How often does the highest selected TE end up being the best from his class?

I get the interest in Bowers and would be excited if we took him, but also terrified. TE feels like a much safer pick in the mid rounds. 

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

For sure, but the issue is, the “high-end” TEs you are referring to (Kelce, Kittle, LaPorta, etc.,) were almost invariably NOT 1st round picks.
 

The NFL doesn’t seem to be great at scouting that position. How often do these star TEs come from the first round? How often does the highest selected TE end up being the best from his class?

I get the interest in Bowers and would be excited if we took him, but also terrified. TE feels like a much safer pick in the mid rounds. 

Safe doesn't win championships my guy.  

The first TE off the board last year was Dalton Kincaid.  Result:  73 catches on 91 targets (80.2 % catch rate) for 673 yards and 2 TDs.  Not too shabby.

Pitts, as we've discussed already, is still impressive despite run blocking all game and having no QB.  I'm not arguing him further.  Direct your remaining concerns with him to @Paradis.

No TE was taken in 2021 and 2023 until Rd 2 - Cole Kmet and Trey McBride.  Kmet has not been bad at all in Chicago.  13 TDs in the last 2 seasons along with a pair of 600+ yard seasons over the last 3.  And the Trubisky/Fields show hasn't exactly been fruitful for them.  McBride caught 81 passes in his 2nd season with AZ last year.

Hockenson was the first TE taken in 2019 at # 8 overall.  Result:  4 Pro Bowl seasons.  

Like....its not that big a deal man.  If we were picking top 5, no, I probably wouldn't want Bowers as much.  At 10?  Why the hell not?  I mean....OT sure as hell hasn't been a "sure thing" position lately, especially for us.

[Jetsfan80]

27 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Not really. It's a non-premium position because there are relatively few true difference makers at the position: Kittle, Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta ... McBride? Hockenson is good but not great - none of the rest of the list will keep defensive coordinators up at night. 

Sounds like its even MORE of a premium position IF you can find one, no?  If Bowers is as good a player as he's projected to be it would sure be nice to separate yourself a bit from the other 25 or so teams in the league who don't have a guy like that. 

Plus, since TE has historically not been a highly-paid position, you can save some money on the 2nd contract that you would NOT get with a WR.

[derp]

3 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

 

The best season thing for Pitts is a little misleading because he did it in 8 games.

[playtowinthegame]

11 minutes ago, derp said:

The best season thing for Pitts is a little misleading because he did it in 8 games.

Pitts should put up incredible numbers now that he finally has a good quarterback (Kirk Cousins) with the Falcons.

[slimjasi]

26 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Safe doesn't win championships my guy.  

The first TE off the board last year was Dalton Kincaid.  Result:  73 catches on 91 targets (80.2 % catch rate) for 673 yards and 2 TDs.  Not too shabby.

Pitts, as we've discussed already, is still impressive despite run blocking all game and having no QB.  I'm not arguing him further.  Direct your remaining concerns with him to @Paradis.

No TE was taken in 2021 and 2023 until Rd 2 - Cole Kmet and Trey McBride.  Kmet has not been bad at all in Chicago.  13 TDs in the last 2 seasons along with a pair of 600+ yard seasons over the last 3.  And the Trubisky/Fields show hasn't exactly been fruitful for them.  McBride caught 81 passes in his 2nd season with AZ last year.

Hockenson was the first TE taken in 2019 at # 8 overall.  Result:  4 Pro Bowl seasons.  

Like....it’s not that big a deal man.  If we were picking top 5, no, I probably wouldn't want Bowers as much.  At 10?  Why the hell not?  I mean....OT sure as hell hasn't been a "sure thing" position lately, especially for us.

Most of those names don’t really blow me away. Some solid players, but no one that I would have been thrilled to use a top 10 pick on, personally. Maaaybe Hockensen? When it comes to using a top 10 pick, I’m swinging for a game-changer. Much more likely to find that at a premium position. 

so yea, i’d still much rather use our first pick on a WR or tackle. 

Premium positions in the first, thank you! 

[slimjasi]

24 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sounds like it’s even MORE of a premium position IF you can find one, no?  If Bowers is as good a player as he's projected to be it would sure be nice to separate yourself a bit from the other 25 or so teams in the league who don't have a guy like that. 

IF being the operative word. 

[jetswin]

16 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I see he left swimming out.. we should have known

[UntouchableCrew]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean we all get that this is an opportunity cost deal.  TE is a borderline non-premium position and it only matters if you have a true difference maker.

But it's also kind of been proven wrong lately, no?  The divisional/championship round of the playoffs has been littered with teams with high-end TEs of late.  Teams are trying to get quicker on defense to combat all the great passing attacks out there, but by doing so they're allowing opposing offenses with TE's worth a damn to create matchup problems; quick but tiny LBs/Safeties can't handle these guys.

TE is only a non-premium position currently because that position gets hurt often.  The impact, however, is undeniable.

And yet virtually none of the elite TEs (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, LaPorta,) were even first round picks.

The great TE prospects almost never pan out. I posted awhile back a list of every first round TE over the last 15 years or so. Very few of them were even good let alone top notch difference makers. Other than Hockenson (who is literally on a new team) how many of these guys have even been good? For every Hockenson there are several Hayden Hurst, OJ Howard, Eric Ebron or Jermaine Gresham types.

It might be my inner Jet paranoia but the idea that the Jets are going to use a top ten pick on a tight end and it's going to work out is crazy.

1) It's an exceptionally difficult position to project to the NFL level. The best players are rarely top draft picks (Gronk, Kelce, Antonio Gates, Shannon Sharpe all second round or later) and the best draft prospects bust an an enormously high rate.

2) Betting on the Jets to buck the trend and maximize the value of a TE... I just have a hard time getting on board with that line of thinking.

None of this means Bowers won't be a great pro or that it won't work as a pick. It's just a scary proposition to throw a top ten pick at a position like this.

[UntouchableCrew]

1 minute ago, UntouchableCrew said:

And yet virtually none none of the elite TEs (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, LaPorta,) were even first round picks.

The great TE prospects almost never pan out. I posted awhile back a list of every first round TE over the last 15 years or so. Very few of them were even good let alone top notch difference makers. Other than Hockenson (who is literally on a new team) how many of these guys have even been good? For every Hockenson there are several Hayden Hurst, OJ Howard, Eric Ebron or Jermaine Gresham types.

It might be my inner Jet paranoia but the idea that the Jets are going to use a top ten pick on a tight end and it's going to work out is crazy.

1) It's an exceptionally difficult position to project to the NFL level. The best players are rarely top draft picks (Gronk, Kelce, Antonio Gates, Shannon Sharpe all second round or later) and the best draft prospects bust an an enormously high rate.

2) Betting on the Jets to buck the trend and maximize the value of a TE... I just have a hard time getting on board with that line of thinking.

None of this means Bowers won't be a great pro or that it won't work as a pick. It's just a scary proposition to throw a top ten pick at a position like this.

First Round TEs Since 2009:

• Brandon Pettigrew
• Jermaine Gresham
• Tyler Eifert
• Eric Ebron
• OJ Howard
• Evan Engram
• David Njoku
• Hayden Hurst
• TJ Hockenson
• Noah Fant
• Kyle Pitts
• Dalton Kincaid

[HighPitch]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

The first TE off the board last year was Dalton Kincaid.  Result:  73 catches on 91 targets (80.2 % catch rate) for 673 yards and 2 TDs.  Not too shabby.

 

this is a great argument to NOT draft Bowers......

A WR that put up those numbers would be considered a failure

Wouldnt a WR produce more? isnt that the bottom line and the point of the anti-bowers crowd?

 

Like the player, hate the position

[slimjasi]

9 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

And yet virtually none none of the elite TEs (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, LaPorta,) were even first round picks.

The great TE prospects almost never pan out. I posted awhile back a list of every first round TE over the last 15 years or so. Very few of them were even good let alone top notch difference makers. Other than Hockenson (who is literally on a new team) how many of these guys have even been good? For every Hockenson there are several Hayden Hurst, OJ Howard, Eric Ebron or Jermaine Gresham types.

It might be my inner Jet paranoia but the idea that the Jets are going to use a top ten pick on a tight end and it's going to work out is crazy.

1) It's an exceptionally difficult position to project to the NFL level. The best players are rarely top draft picks (Gronk, Kelce, Antonio Gates, Shannon Sharpe all second round or later) and the best draft prospects bust an an enormously high rate.

2) Betting on the Jets to buck the trend and maximize the value of a TE... I just have a hard time getting on board with that line of thinking.

None of this means Bowers won't be a great pro or that it won't work as a pick. It's just a scary proposition to throw a top ten pick at a position like this.

 

2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

First Round TEs Since 2009:

• Brandon Pettigrew
• Jermaine Gresham
• Tyler Eifert
• Eric Ebron
• OJ Howard
• Evan Engram
• David Njoku
• Hayden Hurst
• TJ Hockenson
• Noah Fant
• Kyle Pitts
• Dalton Kincaid

Nailed it! 
 

[Warfish]

I don't think I'd draft Bowers over a top OT or WR.

But I'll say this:  I'd definitely draft a TE over an Edge or other Defensive player in 2024.

Our Offense, it must be stressed, has been horrific for years and years.

Our D, has been very good, mostly.

At some point that will truly sink in at the Jets.  And no, "Rodgers will fix it" is dumb and simplistic.  He too needs weapons and support to thrive/produce.

[slats]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The first TE off the board last year was Dalton Kincaid.  Result:  73 catches on 91 targets (80.2 % catch rate) for 673 yards and 2 TDs.  Not too shabby.

He was the 25th pick and had the greatest passing RB in NFL history throwing him the ball. 
 
Meanwhile, Tyler Conklin had 621 yards on 61 catches from Zach and his various cohorts, for an average of 10.2 to Kincaid’s 9.2. 
 
Not an outstanding justification for taking a TE #10 overall. 

[DoubleDown]

35 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

this is a great argument to NOT draft Bowers......

A WR that put up those numbers would be considered a failure

Wouldnt a WR produce more? isnt that the bottom line and the point of the anti-bowers crowd?

 

Like the player, hate the position

Tyler Conklin production out of a first round TE.  No thanks.

EDIT: Ninja'ed by slats.

[Gastineau Lives]

8 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Tyler Conklin production out of a first round TE.  No thanks.

EDIT: Ninja'ed by slats.

Tyler Conklin isn’t even on the same planet as this kid.

Its a ridiculous comparison.

[prime21]

45 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

this is a great argument to NOT draft Bowers......

A WR that put up those numbers would be considered a failure

Wouldnt a WR produce more? isnt that the bottom line and the point of the anti-bowers crowd?

 

Like the player, hate the position

Giving Rodgers another weapon out of the TE position would be straight up nasty.    

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

Most of those names don’t really blow me away. Some solid players, but no one that I would have been thrilled to use a top 10 pick on, personally. Maaaybe Hockensen? When it comes to using a top 10 pick, I’m swinging for a game-changer. Much more likely to find that at a premium position. 

so yea, i’d still much rather use our first pick on a WR or tackle. 

Premium positions in the first, thank you! 

I mean, if you're saying the upside of an elite TE isn't that high, I dunno what to tell you.  Hockenson and Kincaid were big-time difference makers on playoff teams.

TE is pretty much a premium position these days if you can find a top 5-10 guy at the position, for about half the cap charge of an elite WR.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean, if you're saying the upside of an elite TE isn't that high, I dunno what to tell you.  Hockenson and Kincaid were big-time difference makers on playoff teams.

TE is pretty much a premium position these days if you can find a top 5-10 guy at the position, for about half the cap charge of an elite WR.

I think we should all start liking him b/c i think we’re picking him. 

[Jetsfan80]

26 minutes ago, slats said:

He was the 25th pick and had the greatest passing RB in NFL history throwing him the ball. 
 
Meanwhile, Tyler Conklin had 621 yards on 61 catches from Zach and his various cohorts, for an average of 10.2 to Kincaid’s 9.2. 
 
Not an outstanding justification for taking a TE #10 overall. 

For a rookie TE?  That's strong production dude.  

[DoubleDown]

7 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Tyler Conklin isn’t even on the same planet as this kid.

Its a ridiculous comparison.

That wasn't the point, but in any case, it's pure projection at this point.  Neither you nor anyone else knows whether Bowers will or will not produce at a Tyler Conklin level in the NFL.  The bust rate for first round TEs is almost unfathomably high.

[slats]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

TE is pretty much a premium position these days, for half the price of a WR.

Except when you’re talking about a TE or WR drafted 10th overall, in which case they’d cost exactly the same - making the TE half the actual value of the WR.