2022 Draft Class: Who are we keeping?

[Dax89]

A non-trivial consideration for Sauce will be his name-recognition in the fan base.  He's arguably been, outside Rogers, the face of the organization since he was drafted and is well liked by the fan base.  Sometimes it's not just the on-the-field factors that play a role in who they keep and who they get rid of.  

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, derp said:

I don’t understand the lack of love for Hall here. Said it before - Jets were 5-2 with him in 2022 and 2-8 without him. Contributes in the passing game, home run hitter. He’s a needle mover. That he plays a position that the NFL is devaluing right now and won’t cost as much is a bonus.

I'd go a step further than that, too, which is at some point they're going to be breaking in a younger QB. A dangerous threat on handoffs to help keep the secondary from dropping an extra man back into coverage, who's also capable of turning checkdowns into first downs (if not touchdowns) is a pressured QB's best friend -- a younger one even more so.

[rldev]

21 hours ago, varjet said:

I think you have to look at this in terms of AR8s likely tenure-we want to be competitive then.  

• JJ2-JD keeps drafting EDGE and finding them as UDFAs so he does not have to pay up for them.  JJ can sign an early extension for a discount, or can play out his contract.   If AR8 has two years at most, let him play under the 5th year option and then he walks while the Jets rebuild.
• GW-he is someone we keep for the very long term. Sign him for hopefully a small discount a year early.
• Sauce-love him, but we find guys in the pile.  2 firsts for him to use on the next QB is better value.
• Breece-plays out his contract during the AR8 Era.  Then we walks for his big contract.  

So basically let everyone go? Fascinating.

[rangerous]

2 hours ago, derp said:

I don’t understand the lack of love for Hall here. Said it before - Jets were 5-2 with him in 2022 and 2-8 without him. Contributes in the passing game, home run hitter. He’s a needle mover. That he plays a position that the NFL is devaluing right now and won’t cost as much is a bonus.

i don't think any jet fan doesn't love sauce or wilson or hall or jj.  but the fact is they always need to replenish the talent and it will most likely be very hard to keep all four of these guys, along with avt or tipp, or qwill, etc,  so one or more may be traded away.  as i see it, saleh/ulbrich's system doesn't require a true shut down corner like revis was.  that's not to say sauce isn't as good or better than revis but that maybe his current position doesn't utilize all of his ability.

[derp]

1 minute ago, rangerous said:

i don't think any jet fan doesn't love sauce or wilson or hall or jj.  but the fact is they always need to replenish the talent and it will most likely be very hard to keep all four of these guys, along with avt or tipp, or qwill, etc,  so one or more may be traded away.  as i see it, saleh/ulbrich's system doesn't require a true shut down corner like revis was.  that's not to say sauce isn't as good or better than revis but that maybe his current position doesn't utilize all of his ability.

Yeah, can't keep everybody. To me, the common refrain that RB's are replaceable and that's why it's okay to let Hall go just completely disregards how special a player he is. That's where my comment that I don't get the lack of love comes from. Some RB's are replaceable, I think it's very unlikely they'd be able to replace Hall's impact.

I think Sauce is kind of unique too. I know the general perspective before they drafted him was that this defense doesn't really weaponize corners, but they made a gigantic leap after adding Sauce and Reed so I think it's pretty important. My guess is that he gets to shadow guys more this year in preparation for them letting Reed go and kind of punting CB2 with Carter extended, but we'll see.

[viffer]

21 hours ago, JKlecko said:

I get that new GMs want to bring in their own players, but imo a new GM for the Jets would be an idiot to only keep 2 of the 4.  They will keep his team competitive. If he traded or let two of them walk in FA and then failed to adequately replace them, he'd look an incompetent idiot, the media would excoriate him, and the fanbase would want him fired.

If we win the Super Bowl, the Jets fan base would still want him fired. That's what Jets' fans do...

[PepPep]

On 9/3/2024 at 12:21 PM, Bronx said:

This early bird thread is to derail our focus from Reddick and Sperm Edwards is the greatest!!! OMG I love-love-love him!!!. 

Ahmad Gardner (CB, Cincinnati) - Round 1, No. 4 - Trade for two 1st round picks- Promising holdout candidate 2025. Could be traded for a couple of first round picks

Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State) - Round 1, No. 10 (from SEA)- 3-year extension @market value 

Jermaine Johnson II (DE, Florida State) - Round 1, No. 26 (from TEN)-3 year-year extension @home discount

Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State) - Round 2, No. 36 (from NYG)- Promising holdout candidate 2025  

Jeremy Ruckert (TE, Ohio State) - Round 3, No. 101 (from NO via PHI and TEN) TBD, he will most likely playout his contract 

This one is dedicated to @Green Ghost

First of all, wtf is Ruckert doing on this list? If we are talking about core guys, he aint one of em.

And if we are including the whole 2022 draft class, where is Clemons and Mitchell??

And wtf is a 'promising holdout candidate'? Any one of these guys could be 'holdouts' if they keep playing well, excelling and the Jets don't give them a new contract. Sorry, I just don't get the thought process behind one guy holding out and the other not holding out.  

Now let's dissect a bit.

It's really amazing TO ME how many people want to trade Sauce. He's our best young player. He's arguably one of the most unique defensive talents in the league. If there was any player you keep, apart from maybe a franchise QB or elite edge rusher, its this kind of player. This is a guy you do not trade if you can help it. The idea that you would trade, potentially, the best CB EVER for two first round picks because you don't want to pay him is BONKERS to me. He should be the #1 priority to lock up for JD. 

Not far behind is GW. Sauce and GW are 1 and 1A top priority players to lock up long term and do it early. These are cornerstone players for the team. They're young, they haven't gone through any bad injuries, they have only gotten better and have unlimited potential. And they are team players. Nuff said.

JJ is simply not in the same elite tier as GW and Sauce. So obviously, he is not as critical to bring back. However, edge is an important position. This will depend heavily on what he's asking for, how well he is playing at time of negotiation, has he dealt with any injuries (not yet but maybe in the next year?), and what other edge rushers on the team stand out as future stars (McDonald?). All of this is to say that as much as I love JJ and as much as I want him to be a Jet for life, he is not the type of talent (until further notice) that is a building block of the team and needs to be resigned no matter what. It will depend on a number of factors. 

Breece is in a similar situation as JJ but for different reasons. Unlike JJ, he DOES have that 'elite' talent. However, where JJ is an edge rusher- a position that is highly coveted both in FA and the draft. Breece is a RB, kind of the opposite. Breece also suffered a bad injury and will have that as mark against him during contract talks. The Jets will have to think twice before investing big money in him and do their due diligence on his health. So again, he will not a guy the Jets try to bring back at all cost. Whether eh is back will depend on a number of factors. Health, how much he asks for, how well Allen is playing, how our O-line looks in the run game, etc.      

The available of other FAs or the FA market will also have an impact on whether or not Breece and JJ end up being in a Jet uniform longh term.

[Bronx]

4 hours ago, PepPep said:

First of all, wtf is Ruckert doing on this list? If we are talking about core guys, he aint one of em.

And if we are including the whole 2022 draft class, where is Clemons and Mitchell??

And wtf is a 'promising holdout candidate'? Any one of these guys could be 'holdouts' if they keep playing well, excelling and the Jets don't give them a new contract. Sorry, I just don't get the thought process behind one guy holding out and the other not holding out.  

Now let's dissect a bit.

It's really amazing TO ME how many people want to trade Sauce. He's our best young player. He's arguably one of the most unique defensive talents in the league. If there was any player you keep, apart from maybe a franchise QB or elite edge rusher, its this kind of player. This is a guy you do not trade if you can help it. The idea that you would trade, potentially, the best CB EVER for two first round picks because you don't want to pay him is BONKERS to me. He should be the #1 priority to lock up for JD. 

Not far behind is GW. Sauce and GW are 1 and 1A top priority players to lock up long term and do it early. These are cornerstone players for the team. They're young, they haven't gone through any bad injuries, they have only gotten better and have unlimited potential. And they are team players. Nuff said.

JJ is simply not in the same elite tier as GW and Sauce. So obviously, he is not as critical to bring back. However, edge is an important position. This will depend heavily on what he's asking for, how well he is playing at time of negotiation, has he dealt with any injuries (not yet but maybe in the next year?), and what other edge rushers on the team stand out as future stars (McDonald?). All of this is to say that as much as I love JJ and as much as I want him to be a Jet for life, he is not the type of talent (until further notice) that is a building block of the team and needs to be resigned no matter what. It will depend on a number of factors. 

Breece is in a similar situation as JJ but for different reasons. Unlike JJ, he DOES have that 'elite' talent. However, where JJ is an edge rusher- a position that is highly coveted both in FA and the draft. Breece is a RB, kind of the opposite. Breece also suffered a bad injury and will have that as mark against him during contract talks. The Jets will have to think twice before investing big money in him and do their due diligence on his health. So again, he will not a guy the Jets try to bring back at all cost. Whether eh is back will depend on a number of factors. Health, how much he asks for, how well Allen is playing, how our O-line looks in the run game, etc.      

The available of other FAs or the FA market will also have an impact on whether or not Breece and JJ end up being in a Jet uniform longh term.

Valid points. I want to see Sauce's response next year if he is not extended. It would be negligence from this organization not to offer him an extension next year. However, if this organization F things up, it could get ugly quickly.  

[RedBeardedSavage]

4 hours ago, PepPep said:

First of all, wtf is Ruckert doing on this list? If we are talking about core guys, he aint one of em.

And if we are including the whole 2022 draft class, where is Clemons and Mitchell??

And wtf is a 'promising holdout candidate'? Any one of these guys could be 'holdouts' if they keep playing well, excelling and the Jets don't give them a new contract. Sorry, I just don't get the thought process behind one guy holding out and the other not holding out.  

Now let's dissect a bit.

It's really amazing TO ME how many people want to trade Sauce. He's our best young player. He's arguably one of the most unique defensive talents in the league. If there was any player you keep, apart from maybe a franchise QB or elite edge rusher, its this kind of player. This is a guy you do not trade if you can help it. The idea that you would trade, potentially, the best CB EVER for two first round picks because you don't want to pay him is BONKERS to me. He should be the #1 priority to lock up for JD. 

Not far behind is GW. Sauce and GW are 1 and 1A top priority players to lock up long term and do it early. These are cornerstone players for the team. They're young, they haven't gone through any bad injuries, they have only gotten better and have unlimited potential. And they are team players. Nuff said.

JJ is simply not in the same elite tier as GW and Sauce. So obviously, he is not as critical to bring back. However, edge is an important position. This will depend heavily on what he's asking for, how well he is playing at time of negotiation, has he dealt with any injuries (not yet but maybe in the next year?), and what other edge rushers on the team stand out as future stars (McDonald?). All of this is to say that as much as I love JJ and as much as I want him to be a Jet for life, he is not the type of talent (until further notice) that is a building block of the team and needs to be resigned no matter what. It will depend on a number of factors. 

Breece is in a similar situation as JJ but for different reasons. Unlike JJ, he DOES have that 'elite' talent. However, where JJ is an edge rusher- a position that is highly coveted both in FA and the draft. Breece is a RB, kind of the opposite. Breece also suffered a bad injury and will have that as mark against him during contract talks. The Jets will have to think twice before investing big money in him and do their due diligence on his health. So again, he will not a guy the Jets try to bring back at all cost. Whether eh is back will depend on a number of factors. Health, how much he asks for, how well Allen is playing, how our O-line looks in the run game, etc.      

The available of other FAs or the FA market will also have an impact on whether or not Breece and JJ end up being in a Jet uniform longh term.

There is a scenario where we could keep all four.

That’s if they drafted a rookie quarterback and started him. 

But if you can’t get that guy or he isn’t in the draft this year, then it’s wiser to trade Sauce @ peak value, and use those picks to get the quarterback the year later. 

Rodgers is a brief window. Long term, we want a dude like Caleb or Stroud because that’s what will add the most wins/change the future of the franchise.

Sauce is excellent, but if he can be dealt to acquire a franchise quarterback, then it should be done.

[Jet Nut]

14 hours ago, Warfish said:

They indicate effectiveness in making pass-based turnovers.

Not necessarily.  This has been covered often by many.  Good cbs are ignored, bad cbs get more opportunities.  

14 hours ago, Warfish said:

As has oft been repeated, the "fan eye test" is the absolute worst "proof" of any claim, especially when it comes from obviously biased fans of that player/team.

Eye test in some situations like which of 2 players is best maybe but you kind of have to realize which corners are tested more often or which side of the field sees fewer receptions.  Even if you’re watching football for the first time ever.
 

14 hours ago, Warfish said:

But if you'd like others, here are a few:

Percentage of Snaps Played
Percentage of Targets Against vs. Total Passes Against for the Team
Percentage of plays against Opponents #1 WR.
Passes Defensed (PD)
Completion Percentage Against
Total Air Yards on Completions Against
YAC on Completions Against
Etc.

I am sure a casual visit to one of the "advanced stats" sites would provide several more, as desired.

LOL, when have you ever seen any of these stats quoted?  How in the world do these stats dispute my original statement that there aren’t numbers that fans can recite like yards per?  
You’re doing a dance when one wasn’t needed.  My statement was simple, many don’t understand or undervalue a player who has the ability to shut down half the field.  It didn’t require 7 or more obscure stats that don’t change this

[Bobby816]

I think there's more a likelihood we let Reed walk as well as a guy like Mike Williams.

 

WR is what I'm worried about bc Lazard is also a FA after this year. Meaning our only WRs under contract after this season are GW, Gipson and Corley. With the likelihood of Gipson and Corley not shining this year to where we're comfortable with them as our #2 maybe even #3 guys. Meaning we need to address WR early i the draft AND in FA AGAIN.

[Jethead]

All of them are great kids who make the Jets fun to watch and root for. Sorry, but that's way good enough for me. Sign 'em all! It's  Woody's $.

[slats]

14 hours ago, PepPep said:

First of all, wtf is Ruckert doing on this list? If we are talking about core guys, he aint one of em.

And if we are including the whole 2022 draft class, where is Clemons and Mitchell??

And wtf is a 'promising holdout candidate'? Any one of these guys could be 'holdouts' if they keep playing well, excelling and the Jets don't give them a new contract. Sorry, I just don't get the thought process behind one guy holding out and the other not holding out.  

Now let's dissect a bit.

It's really amazing TO ME how many people want to trade Sauce. He's our best young player. He's arguably one of the most unique defensive talents in the league. If there was any player you keep, apart from maybe a franchise QB or elite edge rusher, its this kind of player. This is a guy you do not trade if you can help it. The idea that you would trade, potentially, the best CB EVER for two first round picks because you don't want to pay him is BONKERS to me. He should be the #1 priority to lock up for JD. 

Not far behind is GW. Sauce and GW are 1 and 1A top priority players to lock up long term and do it early. These are cornerstone players for the team. They're young, they haven't gone through any bad injuries, they have only gotten better and have unlimited potential. And they are team players. Nuff said.

JJ is simply not in the same elite tier as GW and Sauce. So obviously, he is not as critical to bring back. However, edge is an important position. This will depend heavily on what he's asking for, how well he is playing at time of negotiation, has he dealt with any injuries (not yet but maybe in the next year?), and what other edge rushers on the team stand out as future stars (McDonald?). All of this is to say that as much as I love JJ and as much as I want him to be a Jet for life, he is not the type of talent (until further notice) that is a building block of the team and needs to be resigned no matter what. It will depend on a number of factors. 

Breece is in a similar situation as JJ but for different reasons. Unlike JJ, he DOES have that 'elite' talent. However, where JJ is an edge rusher- a position that is highly coveted both in FA and the draft. Breece is a RB, kind of the opposite. Breece also suffered a bad injury and will have that as mark against him during contract talks. The Jets will have to think twice before investing big money in him and do their due diligence on his health. So again, he will not a guy the Jets try to bring back at all cost. Whether eh is back will depend on a number of factors. Health, how much he asks for, how well Allen is playing, how our O-line looks in the run game, etc.      

The available of other FAs or the FA market will also have an impact on whether or not Breece and JJ end up being in a Jet uniform longh term.

I’d like to see Breece, Wilson, and Sauce all resigned, in that order. Johnson, I’d like to see more from. He’s the oldest of the group. He’ll be 29 at the end of his rookie deal (fifth year option), the same age that Breece would be at the end of a four-year extension. 

Breece is a unique talent who plays RB. He’s literally a threat to score every time he touches the ball from anywhere on the field. He came back from that ACL injury and had an 83 yard TD run. I think he’s okay. As I said above, you can get another three or four year contract out of him before you hit the dreaded RB wall at age 30. Also, with guys like Allen and Davis behind him, Breece shouldn’t be doing any of the short yardage dirty work. The fact that RB is undervalued today is a huge advantage for the Jets, who can lock up a guy who was second in the NFL last year in total yards from scrimmage for a little more than half of what you can expect Wilson’s contract to cost. To me, it’s an absolute no-brainer. 
 
Wilson is an elite receiver betrayed by the Jets horrific QB play, and I fully expect him to have a monster year with Aaron Rodgers feeding him the ball accurately, and actually seeing him when he’s open. While interviewers were praising his second 1000-yard season, he described it as his worst season ever. If the Jets are going to extend him, they’d be wise to do it while Rodgers is still QB. The rate in which WR salaries are inflating should be a concern as well. I think if the Jets wait until Rodgers is ready to hang them up, Wilson will be ready to move on and not face another year like his first two. 
 
I believe they’ll be able to get those two deals done and Sauce as well but, if there’s one player that you’d consider trading, it has to be Sauce. Why? A couple reasons, not the least of which is that it’s an offensive league and keeping your offensive superstars has to be the priority. The second is economics; Sauce is the one who’s most likely to bring back the biggest return. I doubt anyone’s trading two firsts for even a RB of Breece’s caliber, and the price of WR contracts makes trading for them already very expensive before you figure in the cost of picks. Not many teams want to hand over two firsts for a guy you hope touches the ball 7 times a game for $35M/year. Sauce is in that sweet spot where he’s a superstar player (with a popular personality to go with it), who plays a position out of the salary stratosphere of QBs, WRs, and Edges. You can get two firsts for Sauce. Again -not my preference, I’d much rather keep him- but if you’re looking to cash in in the following year’s draft, that’s your best option. 
 
As I said, Johnson is older. He’s the one guy who I’d let play out his fifth year option and just see where he and the team stand. If the Jets still have Saleh as coach, we’ll see if he and his staff continue to develop late picks, UDFAs, and cast-offs into top level performers. What happens with not only McDonald, but guys like McGregor and Watts, will have a major impact on whether or not to resign JJ. Now if he turns out to be a dominant, consistent, double-digit sack guy, and you think he’s still got plenty in the tank, that math can change, but that’s the way I’d be looking at it today. 

[slats]

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

I think there's more a likelihood we let Reed walk as well as a guy like Mike Williams.

 

WR is what I'm worried about bc Lazard is also a FA after this year. Meaning our only WRs under contract after this season are GW, Gipson and Corley. With the likelihood of Gipson and Corley not shining this year to where we're comfortable with them as our #2 maybe even #3 guys. Meaning we need to address WR early i the draft AND in FA AGAIN.

Reed will probably walk, Mike Williams could potentially be retained, but Lazard is under contract thru 2026, it’s only his guaranteed money that’s done at the end of this year. He’s playing this season for the rest of his deal - or at least one more year of it. I suspect the Jets will want to address WR early in the draft next year, just as they tried to land one of the top guys this year. Top free agents are too expensive, you really need to find them in the draft. 

[ARodJetsFan]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

I’d like to see Breece, Wilson, and Sauce all resigned, in that order

I don't care about the order, but I'd definitely like to see all 3 of them, get a 2nd Jets contract.

[bonkertons]

On 9/3/2024 at 3:14 PM, slats said:

If Breece has the kind of season he’s capable of this year, I don’t hesitate to make him the highest paid RB in the league next winter. The depressed RB market is a blessing to a team with a top 1-2 in the entire league type back. A guy who was second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage last year on one of the league’s worst offenses. He’s a bargain basement value at $20M/year, especially when you consider that Wilson will be looking at $35M/year. 

Exactly.  There's a difference between not wanting to pay a good/really good RB, and not wanting to pay the best RB in the league - and a guy who should probably be at that level for another 3-4 years after this one.