Is Leon Washington worth more than $5 million/year?

[Jbro22]

You don't pay anyone 5 million because a bunch of homers on a forum think he could be something.

[Iceman88]

How much did Strickland and Woody get paid last year?

Strickland made 7.77 mil Woody made 6.1 mil with a cap value of 4.1 mil.

All this information is from http://content.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/salaries/playerdetail.aspx?lname=woody&player=2565

[AFJF]

He is a part time playmaker and nobody is giving a part time playmaker that type of money.

He isn't built like Westbrook. His height and weight may be similar, but his upper body isn't even close, nor are his legs.

124...you're saying he's a "part time player" in a way that makes it sound as if that's all he'll ever be. Just because the Jets are scared to give him the ball doesn't mean other teams will be.

Based on the fact that he has no significant injury history there is no reason to expect him to get hurt if he was given the opportunity to play. Guys like Leon rarely take those huge hits where they get blased because they avoid it with their quickness. I'd agree if the Jets said "we're gonna give him the ball 20 times per game and have him try to run over linebackers up the middle all day". That's not the case. When I see Leon it reminds me of Dunn and I think he can be every bit as good as he was and was definitely worth $5 mil per season.

[New York Mick]

Strickland made 7.77 mil Woody made 6.1 mil with a cap value of 4.1 mil.

All this information is from http://content.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/salaries/playerdetail.aspx?lname=woody&player=2565

I know that's why I picked those two.

Who is harder to replace Strickland, Woody or Washington?

[Irish Jet]

You don't pay anyone 5 million because a bunch of homers on a forum think he could be something.

He's already something, he's just never been given the chance to really show what he can do.

Do any of you seriously think Leon as many touches as he should have last season? Seriously?

If you do you're ****ing bat**** crazy...Or Eric Mangini.

[AFJF]

You don't pay anyone 5 million because a bunch of homers on a forum think he could be something.

What if your FO was all wild and crazy and decided to pay it to him based on the way he's performed on the field? Maybe you're FO is even considering pulling their heads out of their asses and giving the most explosive offensive player on the roster a few more chances to get the ball in the end zone? Would that be a good enough reason?

[AFJF]

.

[AFJF]

He's already something, he's just never been given the chance to really show what he can do.

Do any of you seriously think Leon as many touches as he should have last season? Seriously?

If you do you're ****ing bat**** crazy...Or Eric Mangini.

+1

[T0mShane]

Just think about it this way. The cap right now is 127 million. If we pay him 5 mil it would be roughly equivalent to about 4% of the salary cap. Does that really seem that extreme to you?

If your still scared think about the fact that either there won't be a salary cap in the future or if there is it will remain to go up (the cap went up 18 million over the past two years since the new CBA).

How about this, though...how about we let him actually carry the ball 150-200 times this year and THEN we pay him to do it again. See if he can handle it.

[Iceman88]

How about this, though...how about we let him actually carry the ball 150-200 times this year and THEN we pay him to do it again. See if he can handle it.

He already has carried the ball 150-200 times in a season. He had 151 rushes his rookie year, 25 receptions, 6 KR and 13 punt returns. He had 195 touches and there were no injuries.

Edit: In 2008 he had 171 touches overall, again no injuries. Last year he had 200 touches and again no injuries. (about 75 of the touches both those seasons were on returns)

[New York Mick]

How about this, though...how about we let him actually carry the ball 150-200 times this year and THEN we pay him to do it again. See if he can handle it.

TS you have better knowledge then that.

[Sperm Edwards]

He already has carried the ball 150-200 times in a season. He had 151 rushes his rookie year, 25 receptions, 6 KR and 13 punt returns. He had 195 touches and there were no injuries.

Edit: In 2008 he had 171 touches overall, again no injuries. Last year he had 200 touches and again no injuries. (about 75 of the touches both those seasons were on returns)

He got significantly worse as his carries (and competition) went up.

People only want to remember the 130-yard game against the Lions (without both of their starting DT's no less), or the 100-yard game against the Jaguars (after they'd taken their defensive starters out with a 4+ touchdown lead). Never is it brought up that with more than 2-3 consecutive games under his belt with double-digit carries that the next ones that followed were 13 carries for 22 yards against Chicago or 15 carries for 53 yards against Oakland.

I don't know that it is so obvious that he didn't get injured or winded or whatever after a few games as the lead back. His playmaking didn't return unless he was getting only 5-10 carries as a situational back.

He's also not worth more to the Jets because he's locked in for a lot less. I can see bumping someone up when he's never been paid well, to bring it up to at least a reasonable number. $500K is not reasonable. But there is a limit to a team's generosity and PR concerns.

In the end he'll get a deal that will look like about $5M per year but the last year will have a higher number he'll never see, making it effectively a deal worth between $4.5 and $5.0 million. So many guys are so overpaid I could live with that. $6M (let alone more than that) is just idiotic.

[Iceman88]

He got significantly worse as his carries (and competition) went up.

People only want to remember the 130-yard game against the Lions (without both of their starting DT's no less), or the 100-yard game against the Jaguars (after they'd taken their defensive starters out with a 4+ touchdown lead). Never is it brought up that with more than 2-3 consecutive games under his belt with double-digit carries that the next ones that followed were 13 carries for 22 yards against Chicago or 15 carries for 53 yards against Oakland.

I don't know that it is so obvious that he didn't get injured or winded or whatever after a few games as the lead back. His playmaking didn't return unless he was getting only 5-10 carries as a situational back.

He's also not worth more to the Jets because he's locked in for a lot less. I can see bumping someone up when he's never been paid well, to bring it up to at least a reasonable number. $500K is not reasonable. But there is a limit to a team's generosity and PR concerns.

In the end he'll get a deal that will look like about $5M per year but the last year will have a higher number he'll never see, making it effectively a deal worth between $4.5 and $5.0 million. So many guys are so overpaid I could live with that. $6M (let alone more than that) is just idiotic.

I've pretty much been arguing the entire time that he deserves a 5 mil contract for the exact reasons you said. I've already said when it was first reported he wanted 6 it was too much. 5 mil really isn't that ridiculous in todays NFL.

[Doggin94it]

I'm curious to see what everyone thinks. For the most part it seems that majority of you agree with me that Leon just isn't worth more than $5 million/year but there have been a few that think he's worth more.

More? No, I don't think so.

[Aten]

If he doesn't sign for 5 per/10 guaranteed like yesterday, of course you move him. Sell the fans if you can, sell high always.

[jason423]

Imagine if Andy Reid said....

I'm wicked scared to play a smaller player like Brian big money with alot of years attached. I mean, how many Warrick Dunns are there?

The problem is Leon never had the 1 or 2 seasons that Westbrook had when Westbrook got paid the first big money deal. Leons people are basically treating him as if he is a 1st round draft pick where you are paying solely on potential. The problem is that is not the way the league works for veterans. You get paid based on a track record, not on untapped potential. For as bad as Eric Mangini was dont you think if they thought Leon had that kind of potential that they would have used him more? Or never traded for Thomas Jones? Even moreso, does Leon Washington really project to be as good as a 1st round draft pick projects to be? No and he should not be paid on that same criteria.

The Jets are being way generous offering him a deal that is supposedly worth and annual value of 5 million a season. Would you pay Jerious Norwood 5 million a year? If the answer is no then Leon shouldnt be anywhere near that total.

Here is a little something I wrote about a month ago comparing Leon to the others that always seem to come up in a discussion. He statistically doesnt compare and bending over backwards to give him a big money deal because he is popular is foolish for our long term, provided there is a cap in the future.

http://www.nyjetscap.com/leonwashingtoncontract.html

[AFJF]

The problem is Leon never had the 1 or 2 seasons that Westbrook had when Westbrook got paid the first big money deal. Leons people are basically treating him as if he is a 1st round draft pick where you are paying solely on potential. The problem is that is not the way the league works for veterans. You get paid based on a track record, not on untapped potential. For as bad as Eric Mangini was dont you think if they thought Leon had that kind of potential that they would have used him more? Or never traded for Thomas Jones? Even moreso, does Leon Washington really project to be as good as a 1st round draft pick projects to be? No and he should not be paid on that same criteria.

The Jets are being way generous offering him a deal that is supposedly worth and annual value of 5 million a season. Would you pay Jerious Norwood 5 million a year? If the answer is no then Leon shouldnt be anywhere near that total.

Here is a little something I wrote about a month ago comparing Leon to the others that always seem to come up in a discussion. He statistically doesnt compare and bending over backwards to give him a big money deal because he is popular is foolish for our long term, provided there is a cap in the future.

http://www.nyjetscap.com/leonwashingtoncontract.html

Somebody forgot to tell the Atlanta Falcons that last off-season when they paid all that money for Michael Turner.

[drago]

Chances are he'll get hurt. Fast Willie is a little bigger than him and he has injury issues seems every yr too.

I wouldn't give LW 5 mil a yr just to be a role player either.

The catch seems to be that he will no longer be a role player. Once the jets pay him and an actual coaching staff is calling plays (please tell me this will be the truth this year), leon will hopefully be getting between 10 and 18 offensive touches a game.

The size thing is sort of comical to me because Leon was a little injury prone i college but not yet in the NFL. I've never even seen the guy get blown up by a backer, I really don't think injuries will be his undoing.

[124]

If Leon is getting 18 touches per game on offense his explosiveness and game breaking ability will hit a brick wall, fast.

Keep him in the 10-15 range.

He cannot be a starting back in this league and no part time player is worth $5 million per.

[Jack Straw]

I guarentee you that he would not.

Nobody is paying a KR and a back-up RB more than $5 million a year, or even $5 million a year. Except maybe our dumbass organization.

This is the NFL. Ridiculous money is thrown around left and right. If Leon Washington were on the open market, I'd bet my kidney that he'd get a contract averaging about $5 million/year.

Devin Hester hasn't done diddly at wide receiver and signed a 4 year contract worth at least $30 million, with $15 million guaranteed ($7.5 million average), so don't so matter-of-factly state that "nobody" gives a part time player that kind of money.

Darren Sproles, a part time player, is getting paid $6.5 million this year.

Derrick Ward, a part-time player, is also getting paid an average of $4.25 million with the Buccaneers.

[Blackout]

Leon can kiss my black ass if he thinks he's worth more than the best RB in the league--Adrian Peterson.

can i kiss your black ass??

[124]

This is the NFL. Ridiculous money is thrown around left and right. If Leon Washington were on the open market, I'd bet my kidney that he'd get a contract averaging about $5 million/year.

Devin Hester hasn't done diddly at wide receiver and signed a 4 year contract worth at least $30 million, with $15 million guaranteed ($7.5 million average), so don't so matter-of-factly state that "nobody" gives a part time player that kind of money.

Darren Sproles, a part time player, is getting paid $6.5 million this year.

Derrick Ward, a part-time player, is also getting paid an average of $4.25 million with the Buccaneers.

Darren Sproles was franchise tagged in case they couldn't re-work Tomlinson's deal/injuries. Zero other reason. He won't see that kind of money long term.

Derrick Ward is heading to Tampa to be #1 on the Depth Chart, nobody is giving Leon Washington the starting reigns in this league.

Devin Hester was given the money because he was, and now is, being built up to be the Bears #1 Wide Receiver, not just a Kick Returner. He isn't even doing returns anymore. He might not even do Punts this year, from what I've read.

Totally different scenarios.

[Sperm Edwards]

Darren Sproles was franchise tagged in case they couldn't re-work Tomlinson's deal/injuries. Zero other reason. He won't see that kind of money long term.

Derrick Ward is heading to Tampa to be #1 on the Depth Chart, nobody is giving Leon Washington the starting reigns in this league.

Devin Hester was given the money because he was, and now is, being built up to be the Bears #1 Wide Receiver, not just a Kick Returner. He isn't even doing returns anymore. He might not even do Punts this year, from what I've read.

Totally different scenarios.

Correct on all fronts.

I still keep seeing Sproles pop up as a comparison, and have for a couple of months now. He's just an awful comparison. Sproles didn't get a 4 or 5 year deal with a $6M average. He got a one year deal from a team with (at the time) serious injury questions to their starting RB, on a team that figures to easily win their division. No one gives a long-term $6M deal to a guy for the purpose of him being the backup for the duration of that deal. It it totally different to Leon's situation. Not on his own team, and not on the open market.

[Jack Straw]

Darren Sproles was franchise tagged in case they couldn't re-work Tomlinson's deal/injuries. Zero other reason. He won't see that kind of money long term.

Derrick Ward is heading to Tampa to be #1 on the Depth Chart, nobody is giving Leon Washington the starting reigns in this league.

Devin Hester was given the money because he was, and now is, being built up to be the Bears #1 Wide Receiver, not just a Kick Returner. He isn't even doing returns anymore. He might not even do Punts this year, from what I've read.

Totally different scenarios.

A team's intentions aren't my concerns. You said that Leon Washington would not get more than $3 million on the open market and I think that's BS.

Devin Hester is supposed to be the team's #1 receiver but has done nothing to indicate he's anything more than a decent part-time player and was paid before he even figured out what the hell a WR did.

And what makes you think there's not team out there that would give Leon Washington a shot at the starting job?

[Jack Straw]

Correct on all fronts.

I still keep seeing Sproles pop up as a comparison, and have for a couple of months now. He's just an awful comparison. Sproles didn't get a 4 or 5 year deal with a $6M average. He got a one year deal from a team with (at the time) serious injury questions to their starting RB, on a team that figures to easily win their division. No one gives a long-term $6M deal to a guy for the purpose of him being the backup for the duration of that deal. It it totally different to Leon's situation. Not on his own team, and not on the open market.

Derrick Ward might be the starting running back in Tampa, but he'll be sharing duties with Earnest Graham, Cadillac Williams and Clifton Smith, so I find it hard to believe that he'll get the rock 250+ times this year, and somehow he still got paid for being nothing more than a part-time player with the Giants.

[Sperm Edwards]

Derrick Ward might be the starting running back in Tampa, but he'll be sharing duties with Earnest Graham, Cadillac Williams and Clifton Smith, so I find it hard to believe that he'll get the rock 250+ times this year, and somehow he still got paid for being nothing more than a part-time player with the Giants.

Yeah, but he didn't get $5M per year on a 4 year deal (let alone $6M or more per year), did he?

Leon has already turned down more money than Ward got.

Ward further had 182 carries and 41 receptions on offense, and it didn't affect his ypc nearly as much as it did with Leon when he got the ball much more than usual. He's also just built more like a RB who can take punishment than Leon, being over 230 lbs. So in addition to being a more likely candidate to be a workhorse-type, he's also more likely to be successful than Leon in short-yardage and goal-line (were they to play for the same team) just by his sheer size and power.

Ward is a terrible argument. He's being paid like a full-time starter because he's likely to be just that, plus he's coming off a season with 223 touches on offense, plus he signed for less money than Leon's already turned down.

[PFSIKH]

A team's intentions aren't my concerns. You said that Leon Washington would not get more than $3 million on the open market and I think that's BS.

Devin Hester is supposed to be the team's #1 receiver but has done nothing to indicate he's anything more than a decent part-time player and was paid before he even figured out what the hell a WR did.

And what makes you think there's not team out there that would give Leon Washington a shot at the starting job?

I agree.

-Kevin Faulk makes 4 million doing what Leon does minus the return thing. I think he could definitely earn more.

-Hester does not really relate to the topic because he was paid on what he might do as a receiver before actually being a fulltime receiver.

-As far as Leon being a starter, and beating a dead horse, he could obviously do it.

However, like with Hester, do you take away him being a good change of pace back, a nice receiving threat, an excellent kickoff returner and at the very least a good punt returner in order for him to be JAG at back and replace him in goal line situations?

Leon has not topped 200 carries probably since HS. No one is going to give him much in the way of guranteed money to be a starter. I think he could earn more continuing to do what he has been doing the last two years versus negotiating to be a starter.

[Smashmouth]

I do not think Leon is worth 6 mil a year but due to the state of our offense if you take him out of the equasion we go from bad to worse real quick. Our offense will be lucky to crack the top 20 this year. Take Leon out and we would contend for bottom 5 in the league.

Leon can get a total of about 15 touches a game including ST. He will also be on the field even when he does not get the ball just to keep the defense honest. Whos going to keep Defenses honest on the Jets if Leon is not here ? Just take a look at our Speed players Brad Smith (worthless) and Clowney who could be a good player but is a virtual unknown at this point. People wonder why defenses play us tight . We will probably be facing 8 men in the box so dont expect the same running game you saw last year with a rookie QB at the helm unless he has some weapons. Its bad enough we did not sign a No1 WR. Denver is practically begging us to take Marshall (had to get that in there )

Also dont forget Field Position is Huge in this league and Leon almost always tips that factor of the game in our favor. Leon had 2300 or so yards last year and every yard brought us closer to the goaline.

[Jack Straw]

Yeah, but he didn't get $5M per year on a 4 year deal (let alone $6M or more per year), did he?

Leon has already turned down more money than Ward got.

Ward further had 182 carries and 41 receptions on offense, and it didn't affect his ypc nearly as much as it did with Leon when he got the ball much more than usual. He's also just built more like a RB who can take punishment than Leon, being over 230 lbs. So in addition to being a more likely candidate to be a workhorse-type, he's also more likely to be successful than Leon in short-yardage and goal-line (were they to play for the same team) just by his sheer size and power.

Ward is a terrible argument. He's being paid like a full-time starter because he's likely to be just that, plus he's coming off a season with 223 touches on offense, plus he signed for less money than Leon's already turned down.

Derrick Ward received a 4 year contract worth $17 million ($4.25/year).

I don't understand where you're coming up with this "Leon Washington's...YPC drops dramatically when his carries increase 'much more than usual'" mantra.

Leon Washington is a running back that's expected to get 10+ carries per game (on top of his returning duties) in order to earn his $5 million/year, in my opinion.

These are his results in games where he's rushed 10+ times:

2006

@ Jacksonville: 23 carries, 101 yards, 4.4 YPC -- 1 reception, 8 yards

Miami: 11 carries, 58 yards, 5.5 YPC

Detroit: 20 carries, 129 yards, 6.5 YPC, 2TD -- 1 reception, 8 yards

@Cleveland: 15 carries, 51 yards, 3.4 YPC

Chicago: 13 carries, 22 yards, 1.7 YPC

Oakland: 15 carries, 53 yards, 3.5 YPC, 1TD 2 receptions, 17 yards

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

97 carries = 426 yards, 4.3 YPC

2007

@ Miami: 10 carries, 68, 6.8 YPC, 2 TDs

Kansas City: 11 carries, 67 yards, 6.7 YPC

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

21 carries = 135 yards, 6.7 YPC

2008

St Louis: 12 carries, 54 yards, 4.5 YPC

Miami: 10 carries, 60 yards, 6.0 YPC

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22 carries = 114 yards, 5.2 YPC

So, in games where Leon Washington rushes the ball 10+ times, he averages 4.8 YPC.

Leon is worth up to (but not more than, IMO) $5 million/annually if he's given the rock on a consistant, part time basis (E.G. 10+ times per game). If the coach is going to run him 3-5 times per game, than it's more money than he's worth, but again, it's up to the coach. The stats and facts show no evidence of Leon breaking down or losing effectiveness as his work load increases.

[jason423]

Derrick Ward received a 4 year contract worth $17 million ($4.25/year).

But again that simply is not a valid comparison. The bucs gave Ward a contract that is basically a 1 year 6 million dollar contract with a 3 year option for TB. All his money guaranteed is paid by the end of the 2009 season. If they want to walk away in 2010 they can, with minimal cap penalties. Like Sproles its basically a prove it and well pay you deal. Washington wants a pay me like I already proved it deal.

[talisaynon]

I hate Keels so much. That sniveling little bastard.

[Sperm Edwards]

Derrick Ward received a 4 year contract worth $17 million ($4.25/year).

I don't understand where you're coming up with this "Leon Washington's...YPC drops dramatically when his carries increase 'much more than usual'" mantra.

Leon Washington is a running back that's expected to get 10+ carries per game (on top of his returning duties) in order to earn his $5 million/year, in my opinion.

These are his results in games where he's rushed 10+ times:

2006

@ Jacksonville: 23 carries, 101 yards, 4.4 YPC -- 1 reception, 8 yards

Miami: 11 carries, 58 yards, 5.5 YPC

Detroit: 20 carries, 129 yards, 6.5 YPC, 2TD -- 1 reception, 8 yards

@Cleveland: 15 carries, 51 yards, 3.4 YPC

Chicago: 13 carries, 22 yards, 1.7 YPC

Oakland: 15 carries, 53 yards, 3.5 YPC, 1TD 2 receptions, 17 yards

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

97 carries = 426 yards, 4.3 YPC

2007

@ Miami: 10 carries, 68, 6.8 YPC, 2 TDs

Kansas City: 11 carries, 67 yards, 6.7 YPC

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

21 carries = 135 yards, 6.7 YPC

2008

St Louis: 12 carries, 54 yards, 4.5 YPC

Miami: 10 carries, 60 yards, 6.0 YPC

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22 carries = 114 yards, 5.2 YPC

So, in games where Leon Washington rushes the ball 10+ times, he averages 4.8 YPC.

Leon is worth up to (but not more than, IMO) $5 million/annually if he's given the rock on a consistant, part time basis (E.G. 10+ times per game). If the coach is going to run him 3-5 times per game, than it's more money than he's worth, but again, it's up to the coach. The stats and facts show no evidence of Leon breaking down or losing effectiveness as his work load increases.

Only 2006 counts. You can't cherry-pick one game here or there where he ended up with 10 carries or more only in garbage time. You look at the one season he got lots more carries game after game after game. As in you start AFTER his first or second game with a bunch of carries -- that is how you see how he holds up over time; not by looking at his first or second start. Coming into Jacksonville game, he had 17 carries in 4 games and hardly touched the ball until the second half. When used more sparingly, he averages over another full yard per carry. That is what keeps him dangerous. Not pounding the rock all game long.

Further, two of those games (Jax and Det) were against a few scrubs at DT. Jacksonville was already up over 4 TD's when Leon went in and stayed in, expecting passes, and they rested Marcus Stroud for the whole game. Detroit was without both of its then-starting DT's (including Shaun Rogers) for the whole game.

After three games in a row with double-digit carries, his ypc dropped like a stone. Suddenly he was getting fewer yards per carry than other backs got against those common opponents (3.4 ypc vs Cleveland, 1.7 ypc vs Chicago, 3.5 ypc vs Oakland -- these were the other three games where he had double-digit carries).

The '08 Dolphins game? C'mon. One carry in the first quarter, 5 carries in the second quarter, rests for halftime, 2 carries, rests for 20 minutes, then gets another carry, then that's it. That is hardly pounding the rock. Not to mention 7 of those 10 carries were from shotgun with the defense looking for a pass. And this is zero evidence of him holding up over time. He had 7 carries in the four prior games combined. I'd say he was pretty well rested for this matchup.

Bringing up 10- and 12-carry performances against awful teams like the '07 Dolphins, '07 Chiefs, and '08 Rams is really the weak sauce. Particularly that Rams game, with 10 of those 12 carries coming on the last drive when they were already up by 44 and the badly beaten and exhausted StL defense was moping around from one play to the next against a completely fresh and rested Leon Washington. Why not just say the Jets scored 47 points until they started feeding Leon the ball and then they stopped scoring? It would be as valid of a point.

And this is your way of showing Leon performing marvelously when he got more than just token carries under Mangini?

Look - he's still going to be here this year and likely long-term after that. So I hope he is nothing short of amazing with increased carries under Ryan. But he hasn't shown to be outstanding after only a few consecutive games of carrying the ball 10+ times. No reason to think that would suddenly get better if that was changed to 10 or more games of 10+ carries like Ward did last year. And when doing that, Ward led the league in ypc with great games even in late-season games against playoff-caliber defenses (15-215 vs the Panthers, 15-77 vs the league's best run-defense Vikings. These were the last 2 games of carrying 10-20 times in 8 of the last 9 games.

It's not like I think Ward is the greatest RB in the league or anything, but Leon's never done anything like that to date. And Leon's already turned down two bigger contract offers ($4.5M per and $5.0M per) than Ward received from Tampa ($4.25M per).

[AFJF]

Only 2006 counts. You can't cherry-pick one game here or there where he ended up with 10 carries or more only in garbage time. You look at the one season he got lots more carries game after game after game. As in you start AFTER his first or second game with a bunch of carries -- that is how you see how he holds up over time; not by looking at his first or second start. Coming into Jacksonville game, he had 17 carries in 4 games and hardly touched the ball until the second half. When used more sparingly, he averages over another full yard per carry. That is what keeps him dangerous. Not pounding the rock all game long.

Further, two of those games (Jax and Det) were against a few scrubs at DT. Jacksonville was already up over 4 TD's when Leon went in and stayed in, expecting passes, and they rested Marcus Stroud for the whole game. Detroit was without both of its then-starting DT's (including Shaun Rogers) for the whole game.

After three games in a row with double-digit carries, his ypc dropped like a stone. Suddenly he was getting fewer yards per carry than other backs got against those common opponents (3.4 ypc vs Cleveland, 1.7 ypc vs Chicago, 3.5 ypc vs Oakland -- these were the other three games where he had double-digit carries).

The '08 Dolphins game? C'mon. One carry in the first quarter, 5 carries in the second quarter, rests for halftime, 2 carries, rests for 20 minutes, then gets another carry, then that's it. That is hardly pounding the rock. Not to mention 7 of those 10 carries were from shotgun with the defense looking for a pass. And this is zero evidence of him holding up over time. He had 7 carries in the four prior games combined. I'd say he was pretty well rested for this matchup.

Bringing up 10- and 12-carry performances against awful teams like the '07 Dolphins, '07 Chiefs, and '08 Rams is really the weak sauce. Particularly that Rams game, with 10 of those 12 carries coming on the last drive when they were already up by 44 and the badly beaten and exhausted StL defense was moping around from one play to the next against a completely fresh and rested Leon Washington. Why not just say the Jets scored 47 points until they started feeding Leon the ball and then they stopped scoring? It would be as valid of a point.

And this is your way of showing Leon performing marvelously when he got more than just token carries under Mangini?

Look - he's still going to be here this year and likely long-term after that. So I hope he is nothing short of amazing with increased carries under Ryan. But he hasn't shown to be outstanding after only a few consecutive games of carrying the ball 10+ times. No reason to think that would suddenly get better if that was changed to 10 or more games of 10+ carries like Ward did last year. And when doing that, Ward led the league in ypc with great games even in late-season games against playoff-caliber defenses (15-215 vs the Panthers, 15-77 vs the league's best run-defense Vikings. These were the last 2 games of carrying 10-20 times in 8 of the last 9 games.

It's not like I think Ward is the greatest RB in the league or anything, but Leon's never done anything like that to date. And Leon's already turned down two bigger contract offers ($4.5M per and $5.0M per) than Ward received from Tampa ($4.25M per).

You gotta tell the whole story Sperm. Against Jacsonville they were getting pounded but that was the game that Mangini went to an almost exlusive running offense in the 2nd half. Remember Coles bitching after that game that he was hardly even on the field after half time? Jacksonville probably expected the pass coming out of the tunnel but after a couple of posessions it was clear that the Jets were going to run the hell out of the ball.

[neckdemon]

The problem is Leon never had the 1 or 2 seasons that Westbrook had when Westbrook got paid the first big money deal. Leons people are basically treating him as if he is a 1st round draft pick where you are paying solely on potential. The problem is that is not the way the league works for veterans. You get paid based on a track record, not on untapped potential. For as bad as Eric Mangini was dont you think if they thought Leon had that kind of potential that they would have used him more? Or never traded for Thomas Jones? Even moreso, does Leon Washington really project to be as good as a 1st round draft pick projects to be? No and he should not be paid on that same criteria.

The Jets are being way generous offering him a deal that is supposedly worth and annual value of 5 million a season. Would you pay Jerious Norwood 5 million a year? If the answer is no then Leon shouldnt be anywhere near that total.

Here is a little something I wrote about a month ago comparing Leon to the others that always seem to come up in a discussion. He statistically doesnt compare and bending over backwards to give him a big money deal because he is popular is foolish for our long term, provided there is a cap in the future.

http://www.nyjetscap.com/leonwashingtoncontract.html

good article but i think you're slightly off on the norwood part. leon has a significant lead in td's there.....and you pretty much ignored it because it didn't help your comparison.

[jason423]

good article but i think you're slightly off on the norwood part. leon has a significant lead in td's there.....and you pretty much ignored it because it didn't help your comparison.

I dont think I ignored it. Here is the direct quote from what I wrote:

Washington has a better nose for the end zone and is the better open field runner as evidenced by his higher touchdown total. As a kick returner its about a wash. Norwood is a bit more consistent, but Leon breaks plays for the score which Norwood does not. Neither player has a breakout year to justify a big contract, with neither topping 900 yards from scrimmage in their most productive seasons.

My take is once Leon gets into the open field is that he has the ability to score. Going by Norwoods stats and watching Norwood a little bit he just tries to outrun you which is why his big plays dont get into the end zone as often. Id say the higher yardage totals for Norwood- 2450 to 2300 and 2950 to 2600 on kicks- pretty much balance out the higher TD totals for Washington which is 19-9. I think the TDs would only make a difference if Leon has something like 30 TDs which at least puts him in above average territory.