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Darrelle Revis Trade Value Overrated


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84 replies to this topic

#1 JetNation

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 12:32 PM

With Darrelle Revis trade rumor stories being written non-stop lately many have been speculating as to what the Jets could get in return for the All-Pro cornerback.

Have seen examples such as: two first round picks, a first round along with a third round pick in 2013 plus a conditional 2014 pick or a second and third round pick in 2013 and a first round pick in 2014, but is Revis’ trade market overvalued?

There are many factors which deflate Revis’ trade value the biggest being he’s rehabilitating from a serious knee injury, a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL).  There is no way to know how this injury recovery will go as time tables vary from player-to-player.  There could be a setback or an unforeseen problem which could slow his return.

The next issue is Revis’ current contract which any trading team would obtain.  The contract ends after the 2013 season and prohibits using any type of restriction (franchise or transition tags) guaranteeing Revis hits the open market in 2014.  So why would anyone trade away viable resources, especially high draft picks, to obtain an injured player for one year?

A team could do a sign and trade which Revis signs a new contract before being traded.  This ensures Revis would be with the team beyond 2013 but requires a huge financial commitment in order to get him to agree to sign a new contract rather than test free agency.  Any such commitment means the acquiring team will need resources (draft picks) to ensure they have high quality but low priced players to offset the cost of Revis’ big contract.

Clark Judge of CBSsports.com said it best in a recent article on Revis:

The popular perception is that Revis would cost someone a first-rounder and then some, but I ran into a couple of GMs at the combine who swore they wouldn’t start by offering anything higher than a second-rounder.

First of all, Revis is coming off a serious knee surgery. More important, he wants top dollar for the position — and I don’t mean cornerback. I mean as a defender, which puts him in the $16 million-a-year neighborhood of Mario Williams.

The San Francisco 49ers have been mentioned as a team that would attempt to acquire Revis since they have a vast number of draft picks and added more by trading quarterback Alex Smith.

All teams have offseason decisions to make and the 49ers are no exception.  Some issues facing the 49ers are the need to upgrade their wide receivers along with trying to retain Pro Bowl safety Dashon Goldson.

Don’t see why the 49ers would give up valuable resources to rent an injured player when they have other pressing needs but their general manager Trent Baalke lays out the teams building strategy in the following quote:

Trent Baalke said, “You can’t pay everybody, and you certainly can’t pay everybody if you’re overpaying others.”

Source: The Sacramento Bee / Matt Barrows

Several sources are reporting the 49ers will not pursue Revis:

Given Revis’ history of holdouts, high contract demands and being injured decreases his trade value and it’s not where many believe it to be.  Teams are more likely to shy away from him given the slow growth of the salary cap making signing high price players while managing finances even more difficult.  It looks like the Jets will have little leverage in negotiating a trade and will ultimately end up losers no matter how any of the potential Revis scenarios play out.

 

 

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#2 bitonti

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:25 PM

I can see this side of the argument, I can also see the side that Revis is arguably the best player ever to hit the trade market, in terms of what he's accomplished (3x All Pro) and where he is in his career. If the Jets get a 2nd for their best player and the best player ever traded, that's a slap in the face. 


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#3 unbanmadmike1

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:31 PM

It's a hall of fame player in his prime, the idea that there isn't a market for him is a joke. 


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#4 Obrien2Toon

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:06 PM

A 3rd and a 4th is all we'll be able to get for him.

And I'll be happy with that.
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#5 #27TheDominator

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:12 PM

A 3rd and a 4th is all we'll be able to get for him.

And I'll be happy with that.

 

 

I won't.  I'd prefer to let him play out the season than take that. 


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#6 pointman

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:31 PM

I won't.  I'd prefer to let him play out the season than take that. 

100% in agreement.


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#7 jetsjetsjetss

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:32 PM

I won't.  I'd prefer to let him play out the season than take that. 

 

 

playing out the season where he isnt 100% though. Gotta remember that. If he comes back opening day


Edited by jetsjetsjetss, 28 February 2013 - 04:32 PM.

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#8 bitonti

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:34 PM

playing out the season where he isnt 100% though. Gotta remember that. If he comes back opening day

 

the way these guys are healing, with HGH and deer antlers he might be at 200% 


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#9 SouthernJet

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:37 PM

the way these guys are healing, with HGH and deer antlers he might be at 200% 

Or he may start rubbing his balls and ass on the goalposts :(


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#10 #27TheDominator

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:47 PM

playing out the season where he isnt 100% though. Gotta remember that. If he comes back opening day

 

 

We probably get a compensatory 3rd for losing him in FA. 


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#11 T0mShane

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:49 PM

Teams like the Texans, Falcons, and the 49ers get a lot closer to a Super Bowl championship with a lockdown corner. Throw in a team like the Cowboys, who think they're contenders, and the Saints, and you have the makings of a bidding war that keeps Revis' value high. A team that can win next year won't be afraid of Revis' contract situation. We're all just freaked out because Tannenbaum turned every Revis negotiation into an absolute circus by running to the media after every phone call with the agents. A grown-up organization doesn't get dragged through the mud by any player over a few mil.
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#12 JiF

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:53 PM

Teams like the Texans, Falcons, and the 49ers get a lot closer to a Super Bowl championship with a lockdown corner. Throw in a team like the Cowboys, who think they're contenders, and the Saints, and you have the makings of a bidding war that keeps Revis' value high. A team that can win next year won't be afraid of Revis' contract situation. We're all just freaked out because Tannenbaum turned every Revis negotiation into an absolute circus by running to the media after every phone call with the agents. A grown-up organization doesn't get dragged through the mud by any player over a few mil.

 

Jonathan Joseph, Asante Samuel, Carlos Rodgers


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#13 T0mShane

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:58 PM

Jonathan Joseph, Asante Samuel, Carlos Rodgers



Ok. Sucks. Ok.

All three secondaries got shredded in the playoffs.
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#14 Greenseed4

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 05:13 PM

We probably get a compensatory 3rd for losing him in FA. 

 

That's a good point.  If we trade him to a team, for say a one-year rental then THEY would get the 3rd round comp. That establishes the lower limits of his value.  That means we should get at least a 3rd round pick, plus whatever the value is of Revis shutting down an opponents #1 WR.


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#15 #27TheDominator

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 05:15 PM

That's a good point.  If we trade him to a team, for say a one-year rental then THEY would get the 3rd round comp. That establishes the lower limits of his value.  That means we should get at least a 3rd round pick, plus whatever the value is of Revis shutting down an opponents #1 WR.

 

The problem with that is that I think that you gain compensatory picks based upon net loss of FAs. So we don't get to sign FAs willy nilly and get the pick.  Considering the way you guys want to eat 2013 and sign tons of guys next year, I don't think we make out. 


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#16 Greenseed4

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 05:29 PM

The problem with that is that I think that you gain compensatory picks based upon net loss of FAs. So we don't get to sign FAs willy nilly and get the pick.  Considering the way you guys want to eat 2013 and sign tons of guys next year, I don't think we make out. 

 

You don't get comp picks for traded players.  Only when you lose them to free agency...even then, like you pointed out it is the gained value minus the lost value; the pick compensates you for that.  

 

I'm not spelling this out because I don't think you understand the concept, but because something got lost in translation.  We trade Revis to team-X.  Team-X would be the team to lose him to free agency, so Team-X would get the comp pick.  Right?  I don't see how that point wouldn't be brought up in potential trade negotiations. 

 

If the Jets trade Revis, we wash our hands of him.  We get all of the compensation we can get--from the trade, then move on. We can go willy nilly manilly in 2014, and have a competitive team again.  

 

As it stands, we look to lose Landry, Keller, Moore, and maybe Devito, Slauson, etc.   So long as we limit our "shopping" this year (which is what it looks like) we should get a handful of comps next year. 


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#17 LAD_Brooklyn

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 05:51 PM

A 3rd and a 4th is all we'll be able to get for him.

And I'll be happy with that.

 

What's the point in trading him for a 3rd and 4th while accumalting $9 mil in dead money and leaving a void at CB? Think I would rather him play out the year and look to negotiate with him when he's a free agent and if a deal can't get reach take the compensation 3rd rounder.


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#18 jetsjetsjetss

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 05:56 PM

That's a good point.  If we trade him to a team, for say a one-year rental then THEY would get the 3rd round comp. That establishes the lower limits of his value.  That means we should get at least a 3rd round pick, plus whatever the value is of Revis shutting down an opponents #1 WR.

 

if a team is trading for him as a rental his we are only gonna get like a 3rd and 4th.


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#19 Greenseed4

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 06:47 PM

if a team is trading for him as a rental his we are only gonna get like a 3rd and 4th.

 

doubtful, but we'll see. 


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#20 SenorGato

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 07:56 PM

A 3rd and a 4th is all we'll be able to get for him.

And I'll be happy with that.

 

Lolwut.

 

I'd gladly be done with the NFL if the Jets were so weak minded to do that.  Its unbelievable the complete U turn this fanbase has taken on this guy's value to a football roster. To me it's not realistic, and it's almost vindictive. This shouldn't be some emotion based "omg thank godz no more holdoutz" situation, and I don't see this FO treating the situation like that. 


Edited by SenorGato, 28 February 2013 - 08:00 PM.

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#21 T0mShane

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 07:59 PM

Lolwut.

I'd gladly be done with the NFL if the Jets were so weak minded to do that.



GIVE IDZIK A CHANCE
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#22 SenorGato

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 08:01 PM

GIVE IDZIK A CHANCE

 

I'm perfectly fine with doing that. To walk away with a 3rd and 4th for Revis would be a larger disservice to this franchise and it's fans than anything Tannenbaum ever did. 


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#23 T0mShane

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 08:29 PM

I'm perfectly fine with doing that. To walk away with a 3rd and 4th for Revis would be a larger disservice to this franchise and it's fans than anything Tannenbaum ever did.



I don't believe that's in any way a realistic scenario.
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#24 SenorGato

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 08:32 PM

I don't believe that's in any way a realistic scenario.

 

The 3rd and 4th? It isn't. Maybe it's realistic too suggest someone will lowball with an offer like that, but to take it because it's the "only" way they'll walk away with anything at all? Fuuuuuuuck ouuuuutttta heeeere. 


Edited by SenorGato, 28 February 2013 - 08:34 PM.

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#25 T0mShane

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 08:38 PM

The 3rd and 4th? It isn't. Maybe it's realistic too suggest someone will lowball with an offer like that, but to take it because it's the "only" way they'll walk away with anything at all? Fuuuuuuuck ouuuuutttta heeeere.


Word. I think the market will bear a first plus multiple other picks, and Idzik will get high picks out of any deal. He's got all the leverage right now. Next year, no.
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