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Darrelle Revis Trade Value Overrated

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With Darrelle Revis trade rumor stories being written non-stop lately many have been speculating as to what the Jets could get in return for the All-Pro cornerback.

Have seen examples such as: two first round picks, a first round along with a third round pick in 2013 plus a conditional 2014 pick or a second and third round pick in 2013 and a first round pick in 2014, but is Revis’ trade market overvalued?

There are many factors which deflate Revis’ trade value the biggest being he’s rehabilitating from a serious knee injury, a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL).  There is no way to know how this injury recovery will go as time tables vary from player-to-player.  There could be a setback or an unforeseen problem which could slow his return.

The next issue is Revis’ current contract which any trading team would obtain.  The contract ends after the 2013 season and prohibits using any type of restriction (franchise or transition tags) guaranteeing Revis hits the open market in 2014.  So why would anyone trade away viable resources, especially high draft picks, to obtain an injured player for one year?

A team could do a sign and trade which Revis signs a new contract before being traded.  This ensures Revis would be with the team beyond 2013 but requires a huge financial commitment in order to get him to agree to sign a new contract rather than test free agency.  Any such commitment means the acquiring team will need resources (draft picks) to ensure they have high quality but low priced players to offset the cost of Revis’ big contract.

Clark Judge of CBSsports.com said it best in a recent article on Revis:

The popular perception is that Revis would cost someone a first-rounder and then some, but I ran into a couple of GMs at the combine who swore they wouldn’t start by offering anything higher than a second-rounder.

First of all, Revis is coming off a serious knee surgery. More important, he wants top dollar for the position — and I don’t mean cornerback. I mean as a defender, which puts him in the $16 million-a-year neighborhood of Mario Williams.

The San Francisco 49ers have been mentioned as a team that would attempt to acquire Revis since they have a vast number of draft picks and added more by trading quarterback Alex Smith.

All teams have offseason decisions to make and the 49ers are no exception.  Some issues facing the 49ers are the need to upgrade their wide receivers along with trying to retain Pro Bowl safety Dashon Goldson.

Don’t see why the 49ers would give up valuable resources to rent an injured player when they have other pressing needs but their general manager Trent Baalke lays out the teams building strategy in the following quote:

Trent Baalke said, “You can’t pay everybody, and you certainly can’t pay everybody if you’re overpaying others.”

Source: The Sacramento Bee / Matt Barrows

Several sources are reporting the 49ers will not pursue Revis:

Given Revis’ history of holdouts, high contract demands and being injured decreases his trade value and it’s not where many believe it to be.  Teams are more likely to shy away from him given the slow growth of the salary cap making signing high price players while managing finances even more difficult.  It looks like the Jets will have little leverage in negotiating a trade and will ultimately end up losers no matter how any of the potential Revis scenarios play out.

 

 

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I can see this side of the argument, I can also see the side that Revis is arguably the best player ever to hit the trade market, in terms of what he's accomplished (3x All Pro) and where he is in his career. If the Jets get a 2nd for their best player and the best player ever traded, that's a slap in the face. 

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I won't.  I'd prefer to let him play out the season than take that. 

 

 

playing out the season where he isnt 100% though. Gotta remember that. If he comes back opening day

Edited by jetsjetsjetss

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playing out the season where he isnt 100% though. Gotta remember that. If he comes back opening day

 

the way these guys are healing, with HGH and deer antlers he might be at 200% 

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Teams like the Texans, Falcons, and the 49ers get a lot closer to a Super Bowl championship with a lockdown corner. Throw in a team like the Cowboys, who think they're contenders, and the Saints, and you have the makings of a bidding war that keeps Revis' value high. A team that can win next year won't be afraid of Revis' contract situation. We're all just freaked out because Tannenbaum turned every Revis negotiation into an absolute circus by running to the media after every phone call with the agents. A grown-up organization doesn't get dragged through the mud by any player over a few mil.

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Teams like the Texans, Falcons, and the 49ers get a lot closer to a Super Bowl championship with a lockdown corner. Throw in a team like the Cowboys, who think they're contenders, and the Saints, and you have the makings of a bidding war that keeps Revis' value high. A team that can win next year won't be afraid of Revis' contract situation. We're all just freaked out because Tannenbaum turned every Revis negotiation into an absolute circus by running to the media after every phone call with the agents. A grown-up organization doesn't get dragged through the mud by any player over a few mil.

 

Jonathan Joseph, Asante Samuel, Carlos Rodgers

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We probably get a compensatory 3rd for losing him in FA. 

 

That's a good point.  If we trade him to a team, for say a one-year rental then THEY would get the 3rd round comp. That establishes the lower limits of his value.  That means we should get at least a 3rd round pick, plus whatever the value is of Revis shutting down an opponents #1 WR.

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That's a good point.  If we trade him to a team, for say a one-year rental then THEY would get the 3rd round comp. That establishes the lower limits of his value.  That means we should get at least a 3rd round pick, plus whatever the value is of Revis shutting down an opponents #1 WR.

 

The problem with that is that I think that you gain compensatory picks based upon net loss of FAs. So we don't get to sign FAs willy nilly and get the pick.  Considering the way you guys want to eat 2013 and sign tons of guys next year, I don't think we make out. 

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The problem with that is that I think that you gain compensatory picks based upon net loss of FAs. So we don't get to sign FAs willy nilly and get the pick.  Considering the way you guys want to eat 2013 and sign tons of guys next year, I don't think we make out. 

 

You don't get comp picks for traded players.  Only when you lose them to free agency...even then, like you pointed out it is the gained value minus the lost value; the pick compensates you for that.  

 

I'm not spelling this out because I don't think you understand the concept, but because something got lost in translation.  We trade Revis to team-X.  Team-X would be the team to lose him to free agency, so Team-X would get the comp pick.  Right?  I don't see how that point wouldn't be brought up in potential trade negotiations. 

 

If the Jets trade Revis, we wash our hands of him.  We get all of the compensation we can get--from the trade, then move on. We can go willy nilly manilly in 2014, and have a competitive team again.  

 

As it stands, we look to lose Landry, Keller, Moore, and maybe Devito, Slauson, etc.   So long as we limit our "shopping" this year (which is what it looks like) we should get a handful of comps next year. 

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A 3rd and a 4th is all we'll be able to get for him.

And I'll be happy with that.

 

What's the point in trading him for a 3rd and 4th while accumalting $9 mil in dead money and leaving a void at CB? Think I would rather him play out the year and look to negotiate with him when he's a free agent and if a deal can't get reach take the compensation 3rd rounder.

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That's a good point.  If we trade him to a team, for say a one-year rental then THEY would get the 3rd round comp. That establishes the lower limits of his value.  That means we should get at least a 3rd round pick, plus whatever the value is of Revis shutting down an opponents #1 WR.

 

if a team is trading for him as a rental his we are only gonna get like a 3rd and 4th.

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A 3rd and a 4th is all we'll be able to get for him.

And I'll be happy with that.

 

Lolwut.

 

I'd gladly be done with the NFL if the Jets were so weak minded to do that.  Its unbelievable the complete U turn this fanbase has taken on this guy's value to a football roster. To me it's not realistic, and it's almost vindictive. This shouldn't be some emotion based "omg thank godz no more holdoutz" situation, and I don't see this FO treating the situation like that. 

Edited by SenorGato

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GIVE IDZIK A CHANCE

 

I'm perfectly fine with doing that. To walk away with a 3rd and 4th for Revis would be a larger disservice to this franchise and it's fans than anything Tannenbaum ever did. 

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I'm perfectly fine with doing that. To walk away with a 3rd and 4th for Revis would be a larger disservice to this franchise and it's fans than anything Tannenbaum ever did.

I don't believe that's in any way a realistic scenario.

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I don't believe that's in any way a realistic scenario.

 

The 3rd and 4th? It isn't. Maybe it's realistic too suggest someone will lowball with an offer like that, but to take it because it's the "only" way they'll walk away with anything at all? Fuuuuuuuck ouuuuutttta heeeere. 

Edited by SenorGato

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The 3rd and 4th? It isn't. Maybe it's realistic too suggest someone will lowball with an offer like that, but to take it because it's the "only" way they'll walk away with anything at all? Fuuuuuuuck ouuuuutttta heeeere.

Word. I think the market will bear a first plus multiple other picks, and Idzik will get high picks out of any deal. He's got all the leverage right now. Next year, no.

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There's no way in hell I would trade him for a 3rd and 4th. That is a joke of an offer. 3rd, 4th and a future 1st more like it. I would rather keep him and take our chances at re-signing him in the early goings (or at worst, in FA).

Edited by stoicsentry

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Revis is worth very little to the Jets.  While he is an excpetional CB when healthy, we are not an exceptional CB from competativeness or playoff quality.

 

His role can be filled, at minimal cost, with a minimal dropoff in overall Defensive production.  Fans hate hearing that, but it's the truth.

 

His value is very likely less than we want it to be, especially with his baggage of injury + greed. 

 

To refuse to deal him out of spite is foolish.  A 3rd Round Pick could and should be a producer here for years.  Revis will not be, and his play in 2013, while perhaps good, makes almost no difference unless we're competing for a Super Bowl in 2013.  We won't be.  We'll lose anyway.  He'll walk, and we'll get almost nothing. 

 

Revis is famous, he's a great player, he's loved by fans......none of which translates to wins, nor the CB position to being worth what a franchise QB is. 

 

Deal him, for as much as we can get, and move on.  It's the best we can hope for, and the best interests of the franchise long term towards winning a title.

 

And titles, not famous players, is what matters.

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Revis is worth very little to the Jets.  While he is an excpetional CB when healthy, we are not an exceptional CB from competativeness or playoff quality.

 

His role can be filled, at minimal cost, with a minimal dropoff in overall Defensive production.  Fans hate hearing that, but it's the truth.

 

His value is very likely less than we want it to be, especially with his baggage of injury + greed. 

 

To refuse to deal him out of spite is foolish.  A 3rd Round Pick could and should be a producer here for years.  Revis will not be, and his play in 2013, while perhaps good, makes almost no difference unless we're competing for a Super Bowl in 2013.  We won't be.  We'll lose anyway.  He'll walk, and we'll get almost nothing. 

 

Revis is famous, he's a great player, he's loved by fans......none of which translates to wins, nor the CB position to being worth what a franchise QB is. 

 

Deal him, for as much as we can get, and move on.  It's the best we can hope for, and the best interests of the franchise long term towards winning a title.

 

And titles, not famous players, is what matters.

 

Only problem I have here is that, earlier, you mentioned that this will likely be Rex's last season here.  If thats the case, the dropoff on defense without Revis AND Rex will be pretty massive.  If we dump Revis, I want Rex to remain part of our longtime plans, otherwise why not blow up EVERYTHING?

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Revis is worth very little to the Jets.  While he is an excpetional CB when healthy, we are not an exceptional CB from competativeness or playoff quality.

 

His role can be filled, at minimal cost, with a minimal dropoff in overall Defensive production.  Fans hate hearing that, but it's the truth.

 

His value is very likely less than we want it to be, especially with his baggage of injury + greed. 

 

To refuse to deal him out of spite is foolish.  A 3rd Round Pick could and should be a producer here for years.  Revis will not be, and his play in 2013, while perhaps good, makes almost no difference unless we're competing for a Super Bowl in 2013.  We won't be.  We'll lose anyway.  He'll walk, and we'll get almost nothing. 

 

Revis is famous, he's a great player, he's loved by fans......none of which translates to wins, nor the CB position to being worth what a franchise QB is. 

 

Deal him, for as much as we can get, and move on.  It's the best we can hope for, and the best interests of the franchise long term towards winning a title.

 

And titles, not famous players, is what matters.

 

Strongly disagree with the bolded.  I have no problem with moving the guy, but this "whatever we can get" stuff is what I constantly rail against.  We are unsure of what we can get and what contract he wants.  Those are some pretty key items.  For a third I will stand at the podium and yell out go **** yourself to every team that comes asks.

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