Ranking the pass rushers

[detectivekimble]

No. He actually didn't. Whether a guy had a good combine or not depends on what the numbers actually are and not on how much fanboys are fapping to them.

 

Gholston had a very good combine.

[PLO]

Very interesting Tony Pauline thinks Randy Gregory will drop like a rock draft day, he rates him a top 10 talent, but the off the field issues will likely drop him out of the first round according to Pauline. So Eli Harold AND Randy Gregory could be there when we pick in round 2 - if that's the case I'm much more on the WR bandwagon for our round one pick.

[drdetroit]

Very interesting Tony Pauline thinks Randy Gregory will drop like a rock draft day, he rates him a top 10 talent, but the off the field issues will likely drop him out of the first round according to Pauline. So Eli Harold AND Randy Gregory could be there when we pick in round 2 - if that's the case I'm much more on the WR bandwagon for our round one pick.

Of course he's going to fall he pissed hot for weed on a UA he knew about months in advance.

[PLO]

Of course he's going to fall he pissed hot for weed on a UA he knew about months in advance.

 

Yeah I was more thinking out of the first round altogether - especially given the draft isn't exactly deep with first round prospects (of which Gregory is one of the few in terms of talent) - Pauline has him falling to rounds "2-3" on his website. I mean if DGB is going mid round one (given his history) its a surprise Gregory would fall out of the first altogether. Pauline knows more about it than certainly I do so if he says its likely then I take that at face value.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

Yeah I was more thinking out of the first round altogether - especially given the draft isn't exactly deep with first round prospects (of which Gregory is one of the few in terms of talent) - Pauline has him falling to rounds "2-3" on his website. I mean if DGB is going mid round one (given his history) its a surprise Gregory would fall out of the first altogether. Pauline knows more about it than certainly I do so if he says its likely then I take that at face value.

Don't. CBNY knows sh*t.

[JetBlue]

Don't. CBNY knows sh*t.

Exactly, no way Gregory falls out of the first much less 2nd.  For starters, he would NEVER get past NE, if he were to drop that far, which I seriously doubt. 

[cant wait]

Exactly, no way Gregory falls out of the first much less 2nd. For starters, he would NEVER get past NE, if he were to drop that far, which I seriously doubt.

I'd expect NE to take CB, WR, DT over another LB

[T0mShane]

Based purely on who will collect the most sacks in their careers? Beasley, then Gregory, then a huge gap, then Dupree, then another gap, then Ray, Fowler, and Harold. Kikaha if he stays healthy can sneak in there. I have suspicions about Dupree figuring it out.

Anyone betting on super freak Davis Tull?

[bealeb319]

I would rank them as

 

1) Beasley

2) Fowler

3) Gregory

4) Dupree

5) Ray

 

I think Beasley is the most aggressive out of the bunch, Fowler has a good motor and burst, Gregory probably is the quickest out of all of them though many people say he is to skinny, Dupree I think is the most aware out of all of them though he doesn't seem to play at the same speed as the rest of these guys (I think he would be the best one in the sense that he could do well in coverage too and not just rushing the passer), Ray seems a bit small to me and from what i have seen it looks like most of his pass rushing comes through the middle which isn't a bad thing but i haven't seen much of him coming off the edge.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

Based purely on who will collect the most sacks in their careers? Beasley, then Gregory, then a huge gap, then Dupree, then another gap, then Ray, Fowler, and Harold. Kikaha if he stays healthy can sneak in there. I have suspicions about Dupree figuring it out.

Anyone betting on super freak Davis Tull?

Sure. He went to Chattanooga because he broke his leg in high school and lost his D1 offers. He'd be a consideration with the early Saturday pick.

[JustInFudge]

It isn't tricky to evaluate. You can triple your hit rate just by using a couple of very basic athletic benchmarks. That's easy compared to most stuff.

 

I get all the benchmarks and how they relate to the success of some of these pass rushers but the fact remains that they bust just as much as QB's.  I've read the numerous articles provided on this site time and time again.  Yet, the bust ratio is off the charts.  Over and over again, teams miss on pass rushers. 

 

Its no where near as easy as guys like you and Dbates and Gato try to make it. 

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

I get all the benchmarks and how they relate to the success of some of these pass rushers but the fact remains that they bust just as much as QB's.  I've read the numerous articles provided on this site time and time again.  Yet, the bust ratio is off the charts.  Over and over again, teams miss on pass rushers.

 

Because they take the wrong ones. That's sort of the point here.

[drdetroit]

Don't. CBNY knows sh*t.

I agree but he is right about this one thing.

[drdetroit]

Exactly, no way Gregory falls out of the first much less 2nd. For starters, he would NEVER get past NE, if he were to drop that far, which I seriously doubt.

Even if the Boston Cheaters draft him it's still a far way to drop

[JustInFudge]

Because they take the wrong ones. That's sort of the point here.

 

interwebz posters >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  the guys making the picks.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

interwebz posters >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the guys making the picks.

Was that not true in 2009 when we were standing on tables screaming and they took a quarterback with sixteen starts anyway? How is this different? And of course this doesn't render expertise immaterial. Is it really all that surprising that when the Ravens and Jets both take risky edge guys, they wind up with Suggs and we wind up with Gholston?

[JustInFudge]

Was that not true in 2009 when we were standing on tables screaming and they took a quarterback with sixteen starts anyway? How is this different? And of course this doesn't render expertise immaterial. Is it really all that surprising that when the Ravens and Jets both take risky edge guys, they wind up with Suggs and we wind up with Gholston?

 

I was actually serious in a sense.  I know I could have done better than Idzik last year, easily.  And I'm sure I'm not the only one. 

 

It's just hard to imagine that these guys dont have access to the same sh*t we do but ignore the material and continue to miss and these guys get paid for it. 

[CTM]

I was actually serious in a sense.  I know I could have done better than Idzik last year, easily.  And I'm sure I'm not the only one. 

 

It's just hard to imagine that these guys dont have access to the same sh*t we do but ignore the material and continue to miss and these guys get paid for it. 

 

 

It's funny cause there is some truth to it on certain things, anything data related really

 

This stuff is newer and not completely adopted, particularly by buffoons like Rex.  The internet is like the wisdom of the crowds, it moves faster and advances quicker. Guys like blatesman (or me) didn't figure this sh*t out, they just read articles by other people and understand what the data is telling them, they don't have any risk or any vested interest (or history) in not buying into it so they do*.  Now it's been posted here several times and by this time next year, more people on this site will saying the same things

 

*ie if I was a scout who hit on Suggs, I'd be less inclined to believe the data over what my eyes are telling me

[JustInFudge]

It's funny cause there is some truth to it on certain things, anything data related really

 

This stuff is newer and not completely adopted, particularly by buffoons like Rex.  The internet is like the wisdom of the crowds, it moves faster and advances quicker. Guys like blatesman (or me) didn't figure this sh*t out, they just read articles by other people and understand what the data is telling them, they don't have any risk or any vested interest (or history) in not buying into it so they do*.  Now it's been posted here several times and by this time next year, more people on this site will saying the same things

 

*ie if I was a scout who hit on Suggs, I'd be less inclined to believe the data over what my eyes are telling me

 

Good post.  This makes sense.  Especially with your Suggs point.

 

Kind of makes me think about the movie moneyball and that scene where the 40 year scout and Billy go at it and he fires him. 

[CTM]

Good post.  This makes sense.  Especially with your Suggs point.

 

Kind of makes me think about the movie moneyball and that scene where the 40 year scout and Billy go at it and he fires him. 

 

 

That happens all the time, I've had to let so many traditional marketing folks go because they just refused to buy in to the new way of doing things. I'm just hoping it wont be me at the other end of that in 10 years lol. One of my favorite business quotes: "We have always done it that way" = The seven most expensive words in business

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

That happens all the time, I've had to let so many traditional marketing folks go because they just refused to buy in to the new way of doing things. I'm just hoping it wont be me at the other end of that in 10 years lol. One of my favorite business quotes: "We have always done it that way" = The seven most expensive words in business

 

"I was waiting for a call back."

[JustInFudge]

That happens all the time, I've had to let so many traditional marketing folks go because they just refused to buy in to the new way of doing things. I'm just hoping it wont be me at the other end of that in 10 years lol. One of my favorite business quotes: "We have always done it that way" = The seven most expensive words in business

 

I get it...I support a railroad and a maritime company...they are archaic.  Refuse to change because "we have always done it that way".  Biggest frustration I get from the more progressive consultants we put in those environments.    

[JetBlue]

I'd expect NE to take CB, WR, DT over another LB

Dude it is about TALENT. We are talking a top 10 talent.  There is NO WAY Belicheck would pass on this guy.  He may be the best pass rusher in this draft and would be a top 5 pick if not for the pot issues.  They may take some flack because of the Aaron Hernandez situation but when you are the Super Bowl champs you can take shot on a guy like this. 

[jorge o8]

You might want to add Eli Harold too the list he might be the 3rd best pass rusher in the draft ...at first I thought Nate Orchard was under rated but Harold is very under rated at pass rushing OLB

if we go WR in the 1st love to see him land to us in he 2nd he can rush

[bitonti]

as we get closer to the draft I feel like Beasley will be the first pass rusher off the board. He's the fastest and the best at actually pass rushing. That's what pays the bills. 

 

it could very well go 

 

Winston, Mariota, Williams, Cooper, Beasley 

 

leaving Fowler at 6 

[C Mart]

@MoveTheSticks: I've talked to several personnel guys that think Dupree is going to get picked ahead of Beasley and Ray. Bigger/stronger

@MoveTheSticks: Most coaches love Vic Beasley, scouts are more skeptical.

[SenorGato]

Dupree may be bigger and stronger, but does he impose his will?!

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

as we get closer to the draft I feel like Beasley will be the first pass rusher off the board. He's the fastest and the best at actually pass rushing. That's what pays the bills.

it could very well go

Winston, Mariota, Williams, Cooper, Beasley

Look who just caught up.

leaving Fowler at 6

Oh for god's sake.

[Beerfish]

@MoveTheSticks: I've talked to several personnel guys that think Dupree is going to get picked ahead of Beasley and Ray. Bigger/stronger

@MoveTheSticks: Most coaches love Vic Beasley, scouts are more skeptical.

The bolded part is such a danger for teams.  Coaches with a lot of power who have not watched these guys as much as scouts, have not looked at what makes guys good risks or not an fall in love with a bit of tape.  I bet each year there are a lot of scouts that just want to rip their hair out when a coach or Gm steps in and overrules a consensus by the scouting staff.

 

And then there are the bozos like Tanny and Rex that treated the later rounds as a personal toy in which to play around with.  Scotty friggin mcknight.....

[PLO]

Don't. CBNY knows sh*t.

 

Apparently there is more to the Gregory smoked pot thing - as in apparently there are further character concerns that haven't been publicly disclosed as yet but is open information in scouting and NFL circles, so for a lot of teams he's either been taken off first round boards or taken of their entire board altogether. But it only takes one team to take a flyer on him in the mid-late first. I wouldn't be surprised the information will come out post-draft at some stage.

 

Edit: had wrong name

[C Mart]

I tend to agree. If the Jets stay at 6, I think the choice should be :

Amari cooper or Brandon Scherff

Cooper is a better next yr and future fit than either White or Parker even thou I think both player are better prospects than Cooper.

Scherff starts on our OL next season for certain at either of the OGs positions or RT.

,

Is Jason Fabini a fair comparison for Scherff ? I remember people said Fabini couldn't move from RT to LT because he wasn't athletic enough. However he did a pretty good job at LT.

[JetBlue]

Is Jason Fabini a fair comparison for Scherff ? I remember people said Fabini couldn't move from RT to LT because he wasn't athletic enough. However he did a pretty good job at LT.

He wasn't the 6th pick the draft.  Fabini was a decent player but we need more than that at 6.

[Tinstar]

Is Jason Fabini a fair comparison for Scherff ? I remember people said Fabini couldn't move from RT to LT because he wasn't athletic enough. However he did a pretty good job at LT.

Scherff is far more athletic, and stronger at the POA than Fabini was. Fabini was longer, but the thing I find funny is that I have been thinking about How Fabini played LT for the Jets and how he is exactly the type of LT this team needs. I understand the love affair with Ferguson, but his talents are wasted on the Jets. He's a Pass blocking LT on a run oriented team or what should be a run oriented team.

I really like this player for us if we stay at 6. I think the Jets should look to trade down thou.

[C Mart]

Scherff is far more athletic, and stronger at the POA than Fabini was. Fabini was longer, but the thing I find funny is that I have been thinking about How Fabini played LT for the Jets and how he is exactly the type of LT this team needs. I understand the love affair with Ferguson, but his talents are wasted on the Jets. He's a Pass blocking LT on a run oriented team or what should be a run oriented team.

I really like this player for us if we stay at 6. I think the Jets should look to trade down thou.

 

Tanks Tin...Yeah I keep reading how people question if Scherff can play RT and maybe LT in time and I thought of Fabini..Fabini was solid..Schreff is obviously more highly regarded...I'd also like to trade down if Cooper isn't there, which he won't

[C Mart]

@FootballPost: The top 5 "edge" players in the #NFLDRAFT http://t.co/c95fb4uVYm

Posted March 7, 2015

With many teams playing hybrid defenses, there are now players in every draft that have premium value because of their ability to rush the passer. Some are 4-3 defensive ends, others are 3-4 outside linebackers. The one similarity is that, on passing downs, regardless of their position designation, they are primarily pass rushers. Last year’s first overall choice, Jadeveon Clowney was a 4-3 defensive end in college but Houston uses him as a 3-4 OLB. Regardless, he was drafted because of his pass rush skills.

The following are my top five “edge” players, depending on an individual club’s base defense, teams may rank these players a little differently than I do, but I don’t think that the names of the top five would change.

1) Dante Fowler Jr. – Florida

Fowler is a third-year junior who entered the draft. Interestingly, he won’t turn 21 until after training camps open this summer. Fowler played both up and down at Florida, and in their scheme, he was asked to do a number of things. Because he did so much, his numbers might not be as good as the numbers you’d expect from a player with his natural talent.

What jumps out to me on tape is his natural explosiveness through the hips. That allows him to play with power. He has good hand use and plays with strength at the point. He is a natural pass rusher, and over the last two years he has 12 sacks and 25 tackles for loss.

Being 6025 – 261 with long arms, he has the size and frame to play in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. I expect Fowler will be gone long before the first round hits the 10th pick.

2) Vic Beasley – Clemson

I thought Beasley was going to enter the draft a year ago and I had him rated as a first rounder then. He has been a consistently productive player for Clemson for his whole career. For his career, he has 33 sacks which is the best production in this group.

He is explosive with power and moves. He has quick hands and good hand use. When rushing the passer he can bull rush or use moves and he is very quick with his counter moves.

Some people were down on him until he went to the Combine, but when he had the best work out of the group those same people back on board. His numbers are rare for the position, running 4.53, doing 35 reps in the bench, a 41” vertical and 10’10” in the long jump. His agility times were off the charts also.

Come draft day, it would not be a surprise if Beasley gets drafted before Fowler. It really will depend on how each club sees him in their scheme.

3) Shane Ray – Missouri

While I understand that some may have Ray rated higher than the other two, my reason for ranking him third is 2014 was his first year as a full time starter. In 2014, Ray played in a rotation with Michael Sam and Kony Ealy.

When he got the chance to be “the man”, he shined. What stands out about Ray is his outstanding competitive nature. He goes snap to whistle every play. While he is a bit undersized a 6’3 – 245, he plays with strength and explosion.

Ray played down at Missouri but will have to be a 3-4 OLB in the NFL. He will never have the bulk or power to play down in the NFL. He got overpowered at times while at Missouri in the run game. It won’t get any easier in the NFL.

Because Ray didn’t work out at the Combine, his pro day will be very important. He has to show that he can drop and play in coverage. How well he does in those drills could determine if he is a top 10 or top 20 player come draft day.

4) Randy Gregory – Nebraska

I can already hear some of you arguing as to why I have Gregory ranked fourth. The reason is simple…size! Gregory was 6047 – 235 at Indy and weighed 238 earlier this week at the Nebraska pro day. At that size, he will never be able to play as a 4-3 end. His narrow frame will not allow for much growth potential. Another concern is durability, as he has missed some time with injuries.

Still, he is a productive pass rusher and can be disruptive in the run game. Over the last two seasons he has 17.5 sacks and 29 tackles for loss. When rushing the passer, he has a quick first step and the flexibility to dip and stay under his opponent. He has speed off the edge and does a good job with counter moves. He doesn’t have the bull rush that some of the others have.

Gregory is a lock to go in the first round, the question is how high? He may not go as high as some draft analysts think.

5) Eli Harold – Virginia

This name might come as a surprise to you, but in NFL draft rooms around the country, Harold is held in high regard. Like Fowler, Harold is young. He will be a 21 year old rookie. He also has ideal 3-4 OLB size at 6’3 – 246.

His Combine numbers were excellent running 4.53, jumping 35” in the vertical and 10’3 in the long jump. His agility drills were also excellent, going 4.16 in the 20 yard shuttle and 7.16 in the 3-cone.

On tape, there is some inconsistency in his play but he is a natural pass rusher with hand use, moves and a closing burst. Over the last two seasons he has 15.5 sacks and 31 tackles for loss.

Where Harold needs to improve is with his ability to shed blocks in the run game. Better technique and added strength in the upper body will help achieve that.

Harold is a very solid high second round pick, but some teams must be considering that with his age and upside, is he worth taking in the first?

Follow Greg on Twitter @greggabe