Keiper Re-Grades Jets Draft.

[Larz]

tanny sucks

[RutgersJetFan]

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on this, as it's something I've been droning on about for awhile: The great failing of Rex's program has been an inability to develop talent. There are no overachievers on this team. No Bart Scott- or Jim Leonhard-type developmental success stories (other than Harrison). Basically, if you're not a defensive lineman, you're as good as you're going to get from the second you walk in the door here.

 

I don't know if he's incapable of it or just that he's been unable to.  The Jets have sacrificed a lot of mid-rounders over the past several drafts. Essentially they've been selecting from a polarized spectrum, with their players coming from either the top or the bottom. Developmental talent generally tends to come from the middle, where the success rate obviously isn't as high as the first 2 rounds of the draft but they're not as low as the 6th, 7th, and UDFA pools. They've had 11 draft picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds in the past 7 drafts. That's not a lot, so if you're talking about even a 30-40% (give or take) success rate with mid-rounders, you're cutting yourself off at the knees when it comes to being able to find guys to bring up. The fact that the Jets have traded away several of those picks for players that they had to resign at high prices only compounds the problem, because then you can't make up for the difference in free agency. Missing on several first rounders didn't help much either. Whether that's Rex or the front office's fault, or both, I have no idea, but it's exactly why the roster fell apart over the past two seasons.

 

The absolute best thing that Idzik can do in this upcoming draft is stay put in his draft positions. Play the odds on the success rates, because they're going to have a lot of picks in the first 5 rounds. That's huge because the Jets are in desperate need of players.

[CTM]

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on this, as it's something I've been droning on about for awhile: The great failing of Rex's program has been an inability to develop talent. There are no overachievers on this team. No Bart Scott- or Jim Leonhard-type developmental success stories (other than Harrison). Basically, if you're not a defensive lineman, you're as good as you're going to get from the second you walk in the door here.

 

The great failing of Rex's program is five consecutive years of some of the worst cumulative QB play the league has seen. 

[slats]

I think if they sucked entirely and the whole league thought they sucked entirely, you could have exposed them to the Practice Squad, especially when all the receivers started going down.

Again, Idzik has yet to cut one of his own draft picks. We don't know yet if he's another guy who gives his own draftees priority. They seemed to be given a little bit of preferential treatment during the season. Geno, Milliner, and Winters all started prematurely. I guess we'll find out this year, when up to 12 new draft picks join the team, how willing he is to cut his own guys.

Conversely, Tannenbaum's constant toying with the bottom of the roster is what resulted in the Jets losing Woodhead, so I'm okay with him being a little conservative there.

[T0mShane]

I don't know if he's incapable of it or just that he's been unable to. The Jets have sacrificed a lot of mid-rounders over the past several drafts. Essentially they've been selecting from a polarized spectrum, with their players coming from either the top or the bottom. Developmental talent generally tends to come from the middle, where the success rate obviously isn't as high as the first 2 rounds of the draft but they're not as low as the 6th, 7th, and UDFA pools. They've had 11 draft picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds in the past 7 drafts. That's not a lot, so if you're talking about even a 30-40% (give or take) success rate with mid-rounders, you're cutting yourself off at the knees when it comes to being able to find guys to bring up. The fact that the Jets have traded away several of those picks for players that they had to resign at high prices only compounds the problem, because then you can't make up for the difference in free agency. Missing on several first rounders didn't help much either. Whether that's Rex or the front office's fault, or both, I have no idea, but it's exactly why the roster fell apart over the past two seasons.

Agreed with all of the above, but the bolded is where I can't get past the coincidence of basically every non-DL stagnating here. Either it's a failure of scouting or of coaching. Regardless, in order for these Jets to move forward, Idzik has to find out who/what/where is causing these draft picks to come in and flounder.

The absolute best thing that Idzik can do in this upcoming draft is stay put in his draft positions. Play the odds on the success rates, because they're going to have a lot of picks in the first 5 rounds. That's huge because the Jets are in desperate need of players.

Completely agree. Unfortunately, the 18th overall pick lands just outside the meat of the first round, so unless someone wants to trade up for one of the big OTs, there's really no option of trading down.

[joewillie78]

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on this, as it's something I've been droning on about for awhile: The great failing of Rex's program has been an inability to develop talent. There are no overachievers on this team. No Bart Scott- or Jim Leonhard-type developmental success stories (other than Harrison). Basically, if you're not a defensive lineman, you're as good as you're going to get from the second you walk in the door here.

The only skill position player that I can think of that actually "developed" in a positive direction has been Kerley, and you are right, most stagnate , with even some, like Sanchez, Hill etc. actually regressing.

[T0mShane]

The only skill position player that I can think of that actually "developed" in a positive direction has been Kerley, and you are right, most stagnate , with even some, like Sanchez, Hill etc. actually regressing.

Even with Kerley, he does the exact same job here that he was doing in college.

[joewillie78]

Even with Kerley, he does the exact same job here that he was doing in college.

Yes, but when I consider the QB's on the Jets that have been "throwing" to him, I am willing to concede that he is pretty good. The rest, stagnant or in reverse. A troubling trend that better end soon for this coaching staff.

[RutgersJetFan]

Agreed with all of the above, but the bolded is where I can't get past the coincidence of basically every non-DL stagnating here. Either it's a failure of scouting or of coaching. Regardless, in order for these Jets to move forward, Idzik has to find out who/what/where is causing these draft picks to come in and flounder.

My personal opinion is that Rex really just doesn't know sh*t about offense aside from having a decent eye for running backs. I would be elated if it turns out that Tannenbaum was holding him back the entire time.

[slats]

I don't know if he's incapable of it or just that he's been unable to. The Jets have sacrificed a lot of mid-rounders over the past several drafts. Essentially they've been selecting from a polarized spectrum, with their players coming from either the top or the bottom. Developmental talent generally tends to come from the middle, where the success rate obviously isn't as high as the first 2 rounds of the draft but they're not as low as the 6th, 7th, and UDFA pools. They've had 11 draft picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds in the past 7 drafts. That's not a lot, so if you're talking about even a 30-40% (give or take) success rate with mid-rounders, you're cutting yourself off at the knees when it comes to being able to find guys to bring up. The fact that the Jets have traded away several of those picks for players that they had to resign at high prices only compounds the problem, because then you can't make up for the difference in free agency. Missing on several first rounders didn't help much either. Whether that's Rex or the front office's fault, or both, I have no idea, but it's exactly why the roster fell apart over the past two seasons.

The absolute best thing that Idzik can do in this upcoming draft is stay put in his draft positions. Play the odds on the success rates, because they're going to have a lot of picks in the first 5 rounds. That's huge because the Jets are in desperate need of players.

I agree. I thought they fired the right guy last year, and still do.

In four years of Tanny and Rex, they totaled seven players taken in those middle rounds. Just over half of what they were allotted. When you look at the names - Shonn Greene, Joe McKnight, John Conner, Jeremy Kerley, Bilal Powell, Kendrick Ellis, Demario Davis - they hit on more than half of them. If they kept more of their picks, or traded down and collected more, I suspect the number of players developed would also increase dramatically.

Compare those six players taken in the middle rounds over those four years to the 13 taken by the Pats, or the 14 taken by both teams in the Super Bowl, and you can start to see where the problem begins.

[#27TheDominator]

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on this, as it's something I've been droning on about for awhile: The great failing of Rex's program has been an inability to develop talent. There are no overachievers on this team. No Bart Scott- or Jim Leonhard-type developmental success stories (other than Harrison). Basically, if you're not a defensive lineman, you're as good as you're going to get from the second you walk in the door here.

 

They are all on the defensive line, but Devito and Pouha can certainly be put on that list.  Devito was a nobody that seemed to have some talent that progressed nicely under Rex and Pouha was a guy who came in supposedly an older ready to play rookie who sucked under Herm and Mangini. He seemed like a complete beast under Rex.  Richardson obviously has talent and certainly isn't a boom like Scott or Leonhard, but his immediate impact is likely a good sign.  Same for Wilkerson.  IMO the real hope lies with Davis who looked to be pushed around last year, but seemed pretty good this year.  It's not UDFA development I am worried about, it's mid-round picks and those were the guys that have not even been on on the team. 

[T0mShane]

They are all on the defensive line, but Devito and Pouha can certainly be put on that list. Devito was a nobody that seemed to have some talent that progressed nicely under Rex and Pouha was a guy who came in supposedly an older ready to play rookie who sucked under Herm and Mangini. He seemed like a complete beast under Rex. Richardson obviously has talent and certainly isn't a boom like Scott or Leonhard, but his immediate impact is likely a good sign. Same for Wilkerson. IMO the real hope lies with Davis who looked to be pushed around last year, but seemed pretty good this year. It's not UDFA development I am worried about, it's mid-round picks and those were the guys that have not even been on on the team.

All fine and well, but let's throw Kyle Wilson, Ducasse, Hill, and Sanchez in there. Every draft pick is a developmental prospect.

[#27TheDominator]

All fine and well, but let's throw Kyle Wilson, Ducasse, Hill, and Sanchez in there. Every draft pick is a developmental prospect.

 

I'm not saying he should get a pat on the back for Wilkerson or Richardson. I don't think a 3rd rounder like Davis is such a lock.  I meant to add Antonio Allen in there, but the willingness to bench him for Reed is concerning. 

[RutgersJetFan]

I agree. I thought they fired the right guy last year, and still do.

In four years of Tanny and Rex, they totaled seven players taken in those middle rounds. Just over half of what they were allotted. When you look at the names - Shonn Greene, Joe McKnight, John Conner, Jeremy Kerley, Bilal Powell, Kendrick Ellis, Demario Davis - they hit on more than half of them. If they kept more of their picks, or traded down and collected more, I suspect the number of players developed would also increase dramatically.

Compare those six players taken in the middle rounds over those four years to the 13 taken by the Pats, or the 14 taken by both teams in the Super Bowl, and you can start to see where the problem begins.

 

Agreed. In the seven drafts prior, the Jets selected 22 players in rounds 3-5 from 2000 to 2006. That's twice as many as the seven drafts after ('07 -'13). That adds up over time. The most frustrating part of is that the Jets had done very well in the mid rounds up until 2007 when they shifted philosophies. Pouha, Rhodes, Erik Coleman, Cotchery, Coles, Baker, Leon, Brad Smith...etc. Players who were at least capable of playing at or slightly above replacement level, some even higher like Cotch and Pouha. You can probably even throw guys like Eric Smith or Jamie Henderson who for all their faults had enough under the hood to make the ST's unit more efficient. You can have a year like Tannenbaum did in 2007 and really take a chance, but you can't make it a philosophy year to year. Depending on your criteria, they've really only hit on about four or five, (Powell and Davis for sure, probably Ellis also, then it depends how you want to look at Greene and Lowery) since '07, which means the success rates are quite similar, but the impact from the prior era was obviously much more beneficial for the franchise.

[Lizard King]

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on this, as it's something I've been droning on about for awhile: The great failing of Rex's program has been an inability to develop talent. There are no overachievers on this team. No Bart Scott- or Jim Leonhard-type developmental success stories (other than Harrison). Basically, if you're not a defensive lineman, you're as good as you're going to get from the second you walk in the door here.

Brad Smith

Billal Powell

Garrett McIntyre

 

How many mid to late round guys or UDFA are expected to become good? I think these three are pretty good.

 

Bart Scott isn't that good. Leonard is probably the best tackler 5 yards after the catch I have ever seen. 

 

I think these three are more useful all around guys than the two you mentioned.

 

Oh and Nick Folk went from a shaky, unreliable kicker in Dallas to arguably top 3 kickers in the whole league this year.

 

If anything, sneaking guys out of the haystack is one of the best things Rex did imo, because Tannenbaum torched our drafts for years. I think he went to the same GM class as Omar Minaya.

[Bleedin Green]

I'm not saying he should get a pat on the back for Wilkerson or Richardson. I don't think a 3rd rounder like Davis is such a lock.  I meant to add Antonio Allen in there, but the willingness to bench him for Reed is concerning. 

 

I agree that there's been some development out of players beyond just the DL.  However, it's still an issue as it's mostly on defense and the few guys on offense are mostly amongst the OL (Slauson, Howard) while nothing from the QB or receivers (with the exception of Kerley).

[SenorGato]

Nothing to add to the major convo - tend to agree with RJF there. That said, I'm on the optimistic side for Campbell as a developmental guy. Aboushi is a little rougher but I can mulligan a year if he shows up stronger this summer. Pretty happy to see Shanes pet thought - Rex doesn't develop anything but DL - taking some real lumps. Slats' post nailed it.

The other side to this is that I mocked the mid round thing last year. That's because I'm an eeeedyot.

[#27TheDominator]

I agree that there's been some development out of players beyond just the DL.  However, it's still an issue as it's mostly on defense and the few guys on offense are mostly amongst the OL (Slauson, Howard) while nothing from the QB or receivers (with the exception of Kerley).

 

Well... the offense has been an abomination, but they haven't had many players to develop.  I don't expect a defensive minded coach like Rex to "develop" mid- late round/UDFA RBs, TEs, or WRs.  That's going to fall on the OC and position coaches.  I would not blame the "development" of the QBs on him either, but the way the QBs were used and the coordinators (since 2012) are on Rex. 

[RutgersJetFan]

I agree that there's been some development out of players beyond just the DL.  However, it's still an issue as it's mostly on defense and the few guys on offense are mostly amongst the OL (Slauson, Howard) while nothing from the QB or receivers (with the exception of Kerley).

 

The problem is that the Jets traded out the opportunities to develop offensive skill position players for the likes of Holmes, Cromartie, Braylon, Favre, Tebow, and Lito Shephard. That's not even counting the trades up for Harris and Keller. In hindsight it's really staggering everything the Jets sacrificed for the short term.

[Bleedin Green]

The problem is that the Jets traded out the opportunities to develop offensive skill position players for the likes of Holmes, Cromartie, Braylon, Favre, Tebow, and Lito Shephard. That's not even counting the trades up for Harris and Keller. In hindsight it's really staggering everything the Jets sacrificed for the short term.

 

Oh yeah, completely agree.  I wasn't particularly supporting the theory of blaming it all on the coaches as much as acknowledging that there's obviously been an issue there.  It's certainly as much (if not more) a matter of such limited options for development as it is a failure to succeed in doing so.  A total of 17 draft picks over the course of 4 years (2007 - 2010), with 7 picks in those last 2 drafts, is absolutely ridiculous.

 

Failing with either approach is going to ultimately be a problem, but of course doing it this way means you're paying that much more for those picks (which has an impact throughout the roster), while also reducing the chances of developing your own guys when the potential options are so limited.

[sourceworx]

Smith is going to make or break that draft.  He won' break it actually because of Richardson, but you get what I am saying.  He can take it from good to great.  

 

If Geno becomes a solid starting QB, it becomes a great draft.  If he becomes an elite franchise QB, this draft becomes the best in team history.

[sourceworx]

Agreed. In the seven drafts prior, the Jets selected 22 players in rounds 3-5 from 2000 to 2006. That's twice as many as the seven drafts after ('07 -'13). That adds up over time. The most frustrating part of is that the Jets had done very well in the mid rounds up until 2007 when they shifted philosophies. Pouha, Rhodes, Erik Coleman, Cotchery, Coles, Baker, Leon, Brad Smith...etc. Players who were at least capable of playing at or slightly above replacement level, some even higher like Cotch and Pouha. You can probably even throw guys like Eric Smith or Jamie Henderson who for all their faults had enough under the hood to make the ST's unit more efficient. You can have a year like Tannenbaum did in 2007 and really take a chance, but you can't make it a philosophy year to year. Depending on your criteria, they've really only hit on about four or five, (Powell and Davis for sure, probably Ellis also, then it depends how you want to look at Greene and Lowery) since '07, which means the success rates are quite similar, but the impact from the prior era was obviously much more beneficial for the franchise.

 

 

A lot of those successful mid-round picks were when Bradway was the GM.  Spotting talent in the middle rounds is probably the one and only thing you could say he is really good at.  

[Bleedin Green]

A lot of those successful mid-round picks were when Bradway was the GM.  Spotting talent in the middle rounds is probably the one and only thing you could say he is really good at.  

 

There's definitely some truth to that, during his GM days he actually didn't do all bad for himself once he got past the hype that came along with the early picks.  Of course that doesn't really work when you're talking about the GM and he's constantly blowing his top picks.  That's only further supported when you consider the reports that he was the one throwing a sh*t fit in the draft room back in 2012 for them to be taking Wilson.  Probably says something too that we've now seen two subsequent GMs keep him on the staff.

[sourceworx]

There's definitely some truth to that, during his GM days he actually didn't do all bad for himself once he got past the hype that came along with the early picks.  Of course that doesn't really work when you're talking about the GM and he's constantly blowing his top picks.  That's only further supported when you consider the reports that he was the one throwing a sh*t fit in the draft room back in 2012 for them to be taking Wilson.  Probably says something too that we've now seen two subsequent GMs keep him on the staff.

 

 

Oh I don't doubt that for a second. Since he came here, the team has drafted well in the middle rounds (when Tanny wasn't pissing away picks in bad trades).  

 

That's why I don't get why people got bent out of shape when Idzik (and even Tanny) retained him.  The guy was a bad GM largely because of his poor handling of free agents and trades.  They took those responsibilities away from him, and let him stick to scouting, which he is good at.

[slats]

Oh I don't doubt that for a second. Since he came here, the team has drafted well in the middle rounds (when Tanny wasn't pissing away picks in bad trades).  

 

That's why I don't get why people got bent out of shape when Idzik (and even Tanny) retained him.  The guy was a bad GM largely because of his poor handling of free agents and trades.  They took those responsibilities away from him, and let him stick to scouting, which he is good at.

He was a horrible GM, and Tannenbaum -after his first draft- emulated all of his worst qualities. He may have a good eye for talent, but don't forget that he was also the driving force behind spending three picks for Shonn Greene. The fact that Idzik also decided to keep him on board is encouraging, though. Frankly, I have more faith in Bradway's talent evaluation skills than Rod Graves'.

[dbatesman]

Frankly, I have more faith in Bradway's talent evaluation skills than Rod Graves'.

lolwut

[Maxman]

If Geno becomes a solid starting QB, it becomes a great draft.  If he becomes an elite franchise QB, this draft becomes the best in team history.

 

The best draft in team history could still equate to a slightly above average draft if you don't grade it on a Jets curve.  

[#27TheDominator]

Frankly, I have more faith in Bradway's talent evaluation skills than Rod Graves'.

 

 

lolwut

 

On the bright side, Graves isn't afraid to draft WRs and has done pretty well with them.  IIRC, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Boston, Breaston, Michael Floyd all came under his watch.  Early Doucet and Bryant Johnson too.  I think Wendell Davis and Curtis Conway while he was with the Bears.  He has Calvin Pace on his resume too. They can't all be hits, but he is not afraid of drafting WRs high.

[eboozer]

The best draft in team history could still equate to a slightly above average draft if you don't grade it on a Jets curve.  

How's the wife doing Max?

[RutgersJetFan]

A lot of those successful mid-round picks were when Bradway was the GM. Spotting talent in the middle rounds is probably the one and only thing you could say he is really good at.

Their percentages of hitting on mid rounders really aren't that far apart from each other. The biggest gap between the two is that Bradway at the very least understood you have to play the odds on guys select in those rounds and keep your picks, because on your best day you're only going to hit on maybe 50% of those guys. Tannenbaum's logic was that since that's significantly lower than the first two rounds, he'd be better off trading them away for players who he knew could already play. Unfortunately you're drawing from two pools of resources when you do that (picks and money) rather than just one or the other, meaning over time you're actually getting less in both players and cap space. That Tannenbaum did it in such a high quantity is what killed him.

[dbatesman]

On the bright side, Graves isn't afraid to draft WRs and has done pretty well with them.  IIRC, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Boston, Breaston, Michael Floyd all came under his watch.  Early Doucet and Bryant Johnson too.  I think Wendell Davis and Curtis Conway while he was with the Bears.  He has Calvin Pace on his resume too. They can't all be hits, but he is not afraid of drafting WRs high.

 

Plus Thomas Jones, Leonard Davis, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Adrian Wilson, Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett, Antonio Smith, Antrel Rolle, Alan Branch, DRC, Calais Campbell, Daryl Washington, Parick Peterson. I don't think Graves is a genius or anything (there are plenty of Bryant Johnsons and Matt Leinarts and Beanie Wellses in there, too), but he never spent the 47th overall pick on a kicker, either.

[#27TheDominator]

Their percentages of hitting on mid rounders really aren't that far apart from each other. The biggest gap between the two is that Bradway at the very least understood you have to play the odds on guys select in those rounds and keep your picks, because on your best day you're only going to hit on maybe 50% of those guys. Tannenbaum's logic was that since that's significantly lower than the first two rounds, he'd be better off trading them away for players who he knew could already play. Unfortunately you're drawing from two pools of resources when you do that (picks and money) rather than just one or the other, meaning over time you're actually getting less in both players and cap space. That Tannenbaum did it in such a high quantity is what killed him.

 

Tannenbaum routinely gets bashed for this here.  It is a valid criticism, but there was some merit to using this method during the "window"  The Jets roster (except QB) was pretty strong.  It made sense to forego some lower picks for players that you knew could make an impact - like Greene.  As you state, the issue is that trading picks for players (Shepard, Cro, Edwards, Holmes) eventually forces your hand on contracts.  It would have been better to just draft a decent CB than to keep trading for one.  I think Tannenbaum's philosophy started okay, but he made a huge error with Sanchez and fell too in love with the trade up after his early successes in Revis and Harris. 

[#27TheDominator]

Plus Thomas Jones, Leonard Davis, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Adrian Wilson, Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett, Antonio Smith, Antrel Rolle, Alan Branch, DRC, Calais Campbell, Daryl Washington, Parick Peterson. I don't think Graves is a genius or anything (there are plenty of Bryant Johnsons and Matt Leinarts and Beanie Wellses in there, too), but he never spent the 47th overall pick on a kicker, either.

 

I was talking about his penchant for drafting WRs.  Though they have had nice careers, Pace, Thomas Jones and Leonard Davis were pretty crappy draft picks.  Picking a kicker 47th is more being a bad GM than a bad scout.  I think what Slats means by talent evaluation is scouting. 

[sourceworx]

Plus Thomas Jones, Leonard Davis, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Adrian Wilson, Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett, Antonio Smith, Antrel Rolle, Alan Branch, DRC, Calais Campbell, Daryl Washington, Parick Peterson. I don't think Graves is a genius or anything (there are plenty of Bryant Johnsons and Matt Leinarts and Beanie Wellses in there, too), but he never spent the 47th overall pick on a kicker, either.

 

LOL trading down for Doug Jolley, then picking a kicker with that second round pick.  Definitely not one of Bradway's finer moments. 

[sourceworx]

I was talking about his penchant for drafting WRs.  Though they have had nice careers, Pace, Thomas Jones and Leonard Davis were pretty crappy draft picks.  Picking a kicker 47th is more being a bad GM than a bad scout.  I think what Slats means by talent evaluation is scouting. 

 

Yep. You don't want him making any final decisions on personnel, and you certainly don't want him handling contracts (see L. Coles, and C. Morton), but his input on draft prospects is pretty valuable.