Jets Draft: Ranking QBs #1-5 (Painfully long)

[Paradis]

I threw this up on the other forum, but curious to see if individuals here agree or disagree as well...  Maybe some have another viewpoint altogether:

After reviewing QB rankings from 2010-2015, it's clear nobody has a clue...  I'm kidding of course, but it's surprising (or not) how many times "popular" rankings are not good predictors of how these kids pan out in the NFL. Too many boards across the nation had Gabbert besting Newton in 2011 for example. Is it really that hard to figure out? Maybe, or maybe not... With that said, here's what I'm seeing. Care to share you thoughts?





1) Paxton Lynch....  I'm a fan of what i've seen. In fact, I have a hard time seeing what's not to like. I see criticisms about ball placement and accuracy and i'm thinking - Is that a cut and paste response from a generic template? He's not flawless and polished like Andrew Luck obviously, but then again - what could you expect developing in Fuente's system? He still demonstrated next level passer ability, and a propensity to make big time throws under duress. 

SEASON  CMP   ATT   YDS    CMP%   TD  INT  RAT 
2015       296   443    3776   66.8   28   4   157.5     
2014       259   413    3031   62.7   22   9   137.6
2013       203   349    2056   58.2   9   10   110.4 

The numbers speak for themselves. He shows fantastic mobility for a QB his size; can make plays with his feet AND throw on the run into tight windows. I keep using Aaron Rodgers as a measuring stick in style and ability. He's got plenty of arm talent, got grip and rip with ease, while also showing great touch on back-shoulder/outside timing throws... I don't see a slave to the system. He reads defenses, keeps his downfield and doesn't stare down receivers. Only runs when he has to. If you consider how he relied on his legs earlier in college, his transition to a pure passer went exceptionally well in my opinion... But most importantly, Lynch doesn't make boneheaded plays. Only 4 INTs on the year (2 of which were WR deflections). The biggest issues I saw was as the year wore on? Lynch losing confidence making those big downfield passes -- Memphis simply did not have playmakers who could make those catches/plays.

A CLOSER LOOK: At one point, he was ranked  as the #1 QB going into the final stretch of the season. So I took a look at WHY he tumbled down media boards--

Navy: Not his sharpest game, footwork was a little sloppy in this one. Still made a number of big throws, but did end up committing his first "bad" INT of the season. It was a team loss, defense was PATHETIC and way too fumbles/drops by the skill players.
Houston: Played a strong game for 3 quarters. Better receivers would have made this a no contest. HOU creeped back and the game got away from them. 
Temple: Not a bad game, Temple's defense came to play and harassed Lynch all day. Still, he managed to avoid major mistakes. Couple bad drops would have put Memphis on top early. If that's what a "bad game" looks like, then sign me up. 
Auburn: A legit "meh" game. Felt like a Jets game in the Schotty era; predictable runs on 1st/2nd, receivers running 5 yard outs on 3rd & 8, etc. Didn't make bone-headed plays, plagued by 2 dropped would be TDs. Unfortunate this performance came about when it did. Maybe not if you're jets fan.

What to take away from those games: While Lynch didn't have stellar games against Auburn or Navy, none of these performances were as bad as the media lets on, and quite frankly none of them showed terrible decision making (like Goff vs USC for example). What I took away from this is that Memphis Offense was not able to adjust and make plays outside of their system when teams started to figure them out this year. Lynch made a handful of big time NFL throws and it was more than his players could handle. Their WRs and RBs were groomed for one thing and one thing only; Fuente's quick hit system... 1 guy with down field chops would have changed the outcome of at least 2 of those games easily IMO. 




2) Carson Wentz... Probably the most natural passer in the draft. Looks comfortable in the pocket, moves reasonably well under pressure. Has a cerebral early-Palmer vibe to the way he diagnosis defense after the snap. Seems capable of playing situational ball as well as any pro-prospect (hell of finish in the N. Iowa game)... I'd go as far as saying there's no system Wentz can't conform to when he's drafted. I think he could play as well in an Arians offense as he could in a Kelly quick-hit style O.... Regardless of playing FCS football, I wouldn't fault a team for ranking him number #1. He demonstrates underrated Athleticism and while his arm isn't a canon - I love his long-ball game for the most part, especially when he pushes the ball down the center of the field. 

His outside deep passes at times were not so pretty, however. Needs to work on ball placement and location when he's hitting guys running 9s down the line. That's a big part of the NFL game IMO, and he missed a few of those. I'm impressed by his poise and vision, but when he's forced into 2nd and 3rd reads, the quality in location deteriorates. Anticipation at the next level is going to be steep learning curve, and while that seems obvious, I think it's worth noting that he struggled at times when he played against talented front 7s, most noticeably vs SD (south dakota). Wentz looked out of rhythm at times when the easy throws weren't there. South Dakota's defense was the closest thing I've seen (from what's available) to a stout Defense. South Dakota State in 2014 also did a good job of not giving WRs free release and forced Wentz to throw into coverage. 

YR      GP   YDS   TD     COMP  ATT   PCT   INT 
2015    7    1651  17    130    208  62.5   4   
2014   14   3111  25    228    358  63.7   10  

Numbers are there, and so is the tape. He deserves the praise he's been receiving, but I don't think it's slam dunk that he becomes the next big thing. You have to get dirty and grind out tough games against tougher defenses. He didn't have to do a lot of that, which is why i favor Lynch over Wentz. I saw more big boy football from Lynch. 





3)Jared Goff..... To me, he's not even the conversation with the 1st two. He's got a ton of arm talent, and makes huge throws -- but a significant liability in the decision making department. There's too much Cutler in his game. Turns-overs are going to be a problem with Goff if can't stop making mental mistakes. While he does move around in the pocket well, the pressure effects his performance, noticeably. He keeps his eyes downfield, but starts forcing the ball when he's flushed out the pocket. When the Oline does their job however, he operates pretty efficiently and steps into some dime throws. 

SEASON    CMP ATT YDS   CMP% TD INT  
2015         341 529 4719 64.5    43 13 
2014         316 509 3973 62.1    35 7 
2013         320 531 3508 60.3    18 10

When his accuracy and touch flash for stretches of time, he looks really good. Enough to earn him round 1 hype (apparently) - but coaching staffs better be confident they can phase out the negative plays. If I was a GM, i'd be hesitant before round 2. 





4) Brandon Allen.... I feel like Allen could sneak up boards and wind up being drafted in the 2nd round. He's a gritty QB who plays to the whistle, can make all the throws, and doesn't buckle under pressure. With the right support, he might end up developing into a starter that can can do more than hold down the fort. There's not a lot in the negative column for Allen when you size him up -- beyond size itself of course. Much has been made about the prolific running game featured in Arkansas' offence, but Allen proved on many occasions that he could stand on his own two feet and win games. The game vs Miss St was a real treat to watch. That game alone could challenge scouts to take another look at their notes... So many big throws.

SEASON  CMP  ATT  YDS    CMP%  TD INT
   2015   244   370   3440  65.9    30  8 
   2014   190   339   2285  56.0    20 5 
   2013   128   258   1552  49.6    13 10

I'd say his progression is deserving of acknowledgment. I like Allen's ability to adjust make throws to his 2nd or 3rd read. His accuracy doesn't go out the window, like Goff's did at times. If you look at some of the throws he made in the Ole Miss game, you start to wonder how he's not in the conversation with the other guys (btw if you haven't watched the Ole Miss vs Arkansas game - you haven't lived). It's a little different making those wild throws versus NFL secondaries though... Probably won't know what you've got till he's in camp. 

5) Connor Cook... Good size, good arm, good release -- all the boxes you'd like to check off when looking at QB. Accuracy is above average when he has a clean pocket. Seems smart, game isn't too big for him. But there's no depth here. No grit in his game. He's operating like it's business, which is fine but you need a leader and he appears content to just go through the motions in a game. Low risk throws, getting rid of the ball when he smells pressure. It's all very uninspired at times from Cook. Anticipation comes and goes. He makes dime throws, then misses floaters. I feel like I can't trust Cook to play beyond his means when he has to. I won't take away the efficiency and precision that flashes because he'll grind out the clock in ball control mode - and there's a place for that in the NFL. Would I pick him to lead a franchise? No... But I would consider him an Alex Smith kind of role if makes it that far. So long as the supporting cast is there, He could help win games, just don't ask him to win games for you.

SEASON  CMP  ATT  YDS     CMP%  TD INT
2015       229  408   3131  56.1    24  7 
2014       212  365   3214  58.1    24  8 
2013       223  380   2755  58.7    22  6

Those are stagnant numbers, suggesting Connor plateaued as a game manager. He needed show something to validate last year's hype - and it didn't happen. 

Beyond that -- I found there to be a significant difference between timing throws vs adjusting to hitting a guy in stride against coverage. His timing throws are what made him top tier discussional piece. But improvised/adjusted throws based on reading defenses were not very good. My biggest concern is it appears to be mental. Mechanically he moves well, scans the field and sets his feet. But when he pulls the trigger its a 50/50 shot. Having to come back to the other side of the field and make a quick decision + throw - not good. And that's like half of what happens in the NFL. 

Wouldn't consider him before the 3rd to 4th round. You're looking at a game-manager who will spend the majority of his career being a transitional starter.

Missed the cut:

Dak Prescott.... I like Dak and love his evolution as a quarterback -- but you have to be OK with the potential of him peaking as a Seneca Wallace or Tavaris Jackson type of journeyman. I'm not ruling out the possibility he could surprise, but at present he hasn't shown what I would call NFL "moxy" in his touch and location passing anywhere beyond 10 yards. So much of his success has been via his ability (or the threat of) to run the ball to move the chains... And the reality is, he's not a good enough runner survive on his legs in the NFL. I see some Donovan McNabb to his game but the body of work as an accomplished passer isn't in the same tier as the former Eagle. 


 

[Paradis]

whoops. Meant for the draft forum. Mods, please move this? 

[Shockwave]

Great Post and Breakdown. 

Love Lynch - Wonder if he gets to us at 22. 

[bealeb319]

2 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Great Post and Breakdown. 

Love Lynch - Wonder if he gets to us at 22. 

Maybe if he has a really really bad pro day.

[flgreen]

Great  post.  I have a little trouble getting behind Lynch as the top QB in the draft, but you did a great job in pleading his case

[BrickTamland]

Thanks for the breakdown!

It has felt like an off year for QBs since the beginning.

For that reason, I haven't even felt like giving them much of a look.

After reading your evaluation, it gives me some incentive to check out Paxton. Maybe he's the guy.

[Mainejet]

I figure when we the Jets pick at 20 one of those two top guys could possibly be there. If that doesn't happen then a guy like Connor Cook could be a value pick in the 4th round.

[Larz]

seems like a crop of back ups to me

[FTL Jet Fan]

15 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

I figure when we the Jets pick at 20 one of those two top guys could possibly be there. If that doesn't happen then a guy like Connor Cook could be a value pick in the 4th round.

Do you think he will last that long?  I can see him going in the 2nd.

[Tinstar]

When I look at the QB prospects coming out in this draft I rate them in 2 categories . The 1st category is how they maybe drafted  and the 2nd is most pro ready base on the type of offenses they played in at the college level . It is because of these 2 categories that I have ranked certain QBs ahead of some of the more fan favorite types in this draft .

1st category :

Carson Wentz 

Jared Goff

Paxton Lynch

Connor Cook

Christian Hackenberg

 

2nd Category :

Connor Cook

Carson Wentz

Christian Hackenberg

Jared Goff

Jacoby Bissett

 

This is why Paxton Lynch doesn't appear in my top 5 QB prospects and neither does Dax Prescott .  

[Paradis]

19 hours ago, flgreen said:

Great  post.  I have a little trouble getting behind Lynch as the top QB in the draft, but you did a great job in pleading his case

Thanks,

That's all I can hope for. I'm not on ESPN hosting my own show (nor should I be), but if I can make a strong case for people to consider different perspective, then i've achieved what I set out to do. 

[win4ever]

Nice post.  

I haven't done a breakdown of Lynch, but I did watch a couple of games, and he just doesn't seem like a stud to me quite yet.  He has all the tools, the arm, the size, athleticism, but I can't buy into him yet.  Part of the issue really is the team and the competition.  Hard to tell how good the rest of his team is, nor how he would do going against top competition on a more regular basis.  

A couple of things that concerned me with Lynch with my limited exposure to him:

- He seems to have the high velocity throws all the time.  I haven't seen him with angle throws, where he throws over the defender and into the WR much.  It's thrown extremely hard, but on a line.  It's great to see that he can throw those passes at high velocity, but it's a matter of angles with these throws.  NFL defenders will take away direct angles, and he has to throw over the top of them, and I don't see a demonstrated ability to do that consistently (I've seen more of this from Goff).  This was an issue for Geno in his career, because he seemed to think that every throw had to be thrown on a dart, which led to LBs jumping passes for INTs.  I thought he learned not to do it in the last Miami game he played, where he seemed to take velocity off, and go more for placement.  This is also an issue with screen passes sometimes, as he seems to throw it too hard for the RB.  

-  Much like Geno, there is a big adjustment period for him coming into the system.  As you mentioned, this system is mainly based on short throws, so it's hard for him to show his ability, but there are a decent amount of designed runs and no read passes.  

He's probably the one among the top 3 to make the biggest gain/fall at the combine.  Either he's going to shoot up, or fall apart after workouts/interviews.  I really love the tools, but I don't like the game tape on him quite yet.  I still rank Goff ahead of him (albeit he runs a gimmicky offense as well) because I like his throw selections more so right now. If Lynch goes somewhere and sits for a year, learns under a good QB, then I think he could be a stud.  The problem with first round picks are that, it's no longer a possibility.  The fans are too impatient, and coaches/GMs want instant return on their top selection.    

[maury77]

6 hours ago, win4ever said:

Nice post.  

I haven't done a breakdown of Lynch, but I did watch a couple of games, and he just doesn't seem like a stud to me quite yet.  He has all the tools, the arm, the size, athleticism, but I can't buy into him yet.  Part of the issue really is the team and the competition.  Hard to tell how good the rest of his team is, nor how he would do going against top competition on a more regular basis.  

A couple of things that concerned me with Lynch with my limited exposure to him:

- He seems to have the high velocity throws all the time.  I haven't seen him with angle throws, where he throws over the defender and into the WR much.  It's thrown extremely hard, but on a line.  It's great to see that he can throw those passes at high velocity, but it's a matter of angles with these throws.  NFL defenders will take away direct angles, and he has to throw over the top of them, and I don't see a demonstrated ability to do that consistently (I've seen more of this from Goff).  This was an issue for Geno in his career, because he seemed to think that every throw had to be thrown on a dart, which led to LBs jumping passes for INTs.  I thought he learned not to do it in the last Miami game he played, where he seemed to take velocity off, and go more for placement.  This is also an issue with screen passes sometimes, as he seems to throw it too hard for the RB.  

-  Much like Geno, there is a big adjustment period for him coming into the system.  As you mentioned, this system is mainly based on short throws, so it's hard for him to show his ability, but there are a decent amount of designed runs and no read passes.  

He's probably the one among the top 3 to make the biggest gain/fall at the combine.  Either he's going to shoot up, or fall apart after workouts/interviews.  I really love the tools, but I don't like the game tape on him quite yet.  I still rank Goff ahead of him (albeit he runs a gimmicky offense as well) because I like his throw selections more so right now. If Lynch goes somewhere and sits for a year, learns under a good QB, then I think he could be a stud.  The problem with first round picks are that, it's no longer a possibility.  The fans are too impatient, and coaches/GMs want instant return on their top selection.    

That being said, if the Jets (as expected) re-sign Fitz, that would probably create a nice environment for Lynch to sit & learn for a year or two. 

[Paradis]

10 hours ago, win4ever said:

Nice post.  

I haven't done a breakdown of Lynch, but I did watch a couple of games, and he just doesn't seem like a stud to me quite yet.  He has all the tools, the arm, the size, athleticism, but I can't buy into him yet.  Part of the issue really is the team and the competition.  Hard to tell how good the rest of his team is, nor how he would do going against top competition on a more regular basis.  

A couple of things that concerned me with Lynch with my limited exposure to him:

- He seems to have the high velocity throws all the time.  I haven't seen him with angle throws, where he throws over the defender and into the WR much.  It's thrown extremely hard, but on a line.  It's great to see that he can throw those passes at high velocity, but it's a matter of angles with these throws.  NFL defenders will take away direct angles, and he has to throw over the top of them, and I don't see a demonstrated ability to do that consistently (I've seen more of this from Goff).  This was an issue for Geno in his career, because he seemed to think that every throw had to be thrown on a dart, which led to LBs jumping passes for INTs.  I thought he learned not to do it in the last Miami game he played, where he seemed to take velocity off, and go more for placement.  This is also an issue with screen passes sometimes, as he seems to throw it too hard for the RB.  

-  Much like Geno, there is a big adjustment period for him coming into the system.  As you mentioned, this system is mainly based on short throws, so it's hard for him to show his ability, but there are a decent amount of designed runs and no read passes.  

He's probably the one among the top 3 to make the biggest gain/fall at the combine.  Either he's going to shoot up, or fall apart after workouts/interviews.  I really love the tools, but I don't like the game tape on him quite yet.  I still rank Goff ahead of him (albeit he runs a gimmicky offense as well) because I like his throw selections more so right now. If Lynch goes somewhere and sits for a year, learns under a good QB, then I think he could be a stud.  The problem with first round picks are that, it's no longer a possibility.  The fans are too impatient, and coaches/GMs want instant return on their top selection.    

Thanks for the reply/thoughts.

--I do think you need to revisit more than 2 games as I don't think what you wrote is (entirely) accurate. He does throw touch passes over receivers, back shoulders etc. I think there's plenty out there... that said, you definitely notice from weeks 9 and on, the number of those throws decrease... their WRs simply do have the chops to make difficult catches in traffic. That Mayhew WR drops more downfield homerun throws than I care to recall.... I thought i saw a number of good angled throws, but i'll keep an eye out for that next time I revisit. 

--Goff has more games out there against legit D, being in a Power 5 conference. He also has 3 times the number of INTs. Dumb ones too. Nothing to do with difficult coverage or secondaries making plays... some were just stupid throws under pressure... .and from what I've seen, Lynch is the lead by a country mile when it comes to making throws/plays under duress.  Not a single INT he threw (all 4) were because of being careless. The worst was a bad pick when they had 1min left before the half and he tried to force a throw and didn't see a LB.

--All 3 guys are uniquely different and flawed. For me, it's Carson and the learning curve (if he's not groomed properly), Goff and the decision making, and Lynch and being able to adapt to a pro-offense. 

[Gas2No99]

No consideration for Standford's Kevin Hogan?

 

KEVIN HOGAN, QB

SCHOOL: STANFORD  |  CONFERENCE: PAC12
COLLEGE EXPERIENCE: SENIOR  |  HOMETOWN: MCLEAN, VA
HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6-3 / 217 LBS.

 

PLAYER OVERVIEW

Hogan was rated as the nation's No. 13 quarterback prospect coming out of McLean, Va., where he also lettered in basketball at Gonzaga College in Washington D.C.

Hogan's grandfather, James M. O'Brien, played football at Navy, while two uncles played at Notre Dame and a cousin played for Arizona, so football certainly runs in the family bloodlines.

After redshirting in 2011 behing Andrew Luck, he took over the starting job for good on the third series against Colorado in 2012, leading the offense to scores on six consecutive drives. Hogan finished his redshirt sophomore season as an honorable mention All-Pac-12 pick while leading the Cardinal to five victories as a starter.

All he did in 2012 -- his first full year as the starter -- was help Stanford return to Pasadena, boost his numbers in every category and compile a 10-1 record against Top 25 teams. He certainly struggled in some games -- including the loss to Michigan State to end the year.

Hogan has credentials but a track record of inconsistency and the perception that he struggles in big games. After some struggles in Stanford's disappointing 5-5 start to the season, Hogan ended last year playing well (including an MVP performance in the Foster Farms Bowl win over Maryland) despite the fact that he tragically lost his father, Jerry, to cancer.

As a fifth-year senior Hogan was second in FBS with 9.43 yards per pass attempt and second-team All-Pac-12. He had 27 touchdowns, was fifth in the nation in completion percentage (67.8) and earned his degree in science, technology and society.

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

STRENGTHS: Hogan passes the eye test with a broad-shouldered, well-built frame for the position. Instincts, accuracy and velocity are enough to overcome the quirky delivery. 

Hogan has good (but not great) accuracy to all levels with especially impressive touch on deep passes when he has the room to step into his throw. While accuracy is a concern, arm strength is not. Hogan has a rifle. 

Hogan has been well protected by the elite talent blocking in front of him but when pressure does force him off his spot, he is willing to step up in the pocket, exhibiting poise, toughness and quick decision-making to either throw or run. Hogan intrigued with his accuracy when on the move as a senior, including the ability to roll out and throwing back against the grain. Like Andrew Luck before him, Hogan is faster (and stronger) than he looks, making him a formidable threat on the run. 

Stanford's scheme calls for lots of play-action, boots and throwing on the move and deep shots - staples of a pro-style offense that suit Hogan's athleticism and strong arm well.

WEAKNESSES: Elongated delivery. Struggles with accuracy on deep passes. Lacks great mobility that is increasingly valued in the NFL. 

Hogan can hit the open man consistently but too often his passes force receivers to adjust their routes slightly, limiting run-after-the-catch opportunities and occasionally leaving pass-catchers vulnerable to big hits. Worse, Hogan will simply air-mail a pass now and then, missing his receiver by a few yards. 

IN OUR VIEW: One could argue that no senior quarterback prospect has helped himself more this season than Hogan, who has forced NFL scouts to take second and third looks at him. Although his elongated delivery and inconsistent passing vision are concerns, he's built for the NFL game with the toughness, heart and intangibles that teams covet at the next level. 

Does he have the arm talent to consistently make plays at the NFL level? That's the debate and the key to whether or not he will receive draftable grades from teams.

COMPARES TO: Philip Rivers, Chargers - Hogan's longated wind-up will earn plenty of criticism in the pre-draft process but like Rivers, Hogan's instincts, accuracy and velocity are enough to overcome the quirky delivery. 

 

 

 

[Gas2No99]

Sounds like the ideal prospect to sit for a few years on the bench and adapt to the NFL level. Has the raw tools, intangibles, pro-offense exposure to succeed in a few years; having been Andrew Luck's understudy can only help as well. 

[Paradis]

Don't mean to rag on Hogan who had a fine collegiate career - but he's not someone you go into draft targeting when your agenda reads; Must find franchise QB

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[win4ever]

On 2/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, maury77 said:

That being said, if the Jets (as expected) re-sign Fitz, that would probably create a nice environment for Lynch to sit & learn for a year or two. 

I'm not sure we can afford to pick a guy in the first and let him sit.  The team is pretty much in win now mode.  

On 2/15/2016 at 0:14 PM, Paradis said:

Thanks for the reply/thoughts.

--I do think you need to revisit more than 2 games as I don't think what you wrote is (entirely) accurate. He does throw touch passes over receivers, back shoulders etc. I think there's plenty out there... that said, you definitely notice from weeks 9 and on, the number of those throws decrease... their WRs simply do have the chops to make difficult catches in traffic. That Mayhew WR drops more downfield homerun throws than I care to recall.... I thought i saw a number of good angled throws, but i'll keep an eye out for that next time I revisit. 

--Goff has more games out there against legit D, being in a Power 5 conference. He also has 3 times the number of INTs. Dumb ones too. Nothing to do with difficult coverage or secondaries making plays... some were just stupid throws under pressure... .and from what I've seen, Lynch is the lead by a country mile when it comes to making throws/plays under duress.  Not a single INT he threw (all 4) were because of being careless. The worst was a bad pick when they had 1min left before the half and he tried to force a throw and didn't see a LB.

--All 3 guys are uniquely different and flawed. For me, it's Carson and the learning curve (if he's not groomed properly), Goff and the decision making, and Lynch and being able to adapt to a pro-offense. 

Lynch really worries me with his downfield throws, that aren't just straight arrows.  To borrow a baseball logic, to me he has a great fastball, but struggles with his off-speed pitches.  I ended up looking at two more games, and he seems off with his throws that weren't just flat out lasers.  I saw I believe one throw, where the guy was wide open (I think the TE down the seam) that he had a nice touch on for a TD.  All the other ones weren't close, with a couple of close almost INTs.  It'd be interesting to see how he works out with throwing, because the more I watch him, the more I question him to be honest.  However, it's impossible to tell because of his O-line and offensive system.  

I would also love to see Lynch's interviews with coaches, because there are always a few throws where I feel it's a pure system call, where the defensive set up isn't factored in at all.  There are a bunch of WR screens, that have no shot even pre-snap, that he still throws.  These plays were blown up before he even threw the ball, but he forces it in there, and the WR gets stopped anyway.  

I like Goff better in the sense that I feel like he has tape of all types of throws consistently.  He make stupid mistakes too, and his arm is weaker but I see him being better at making reads, albeit his system isn't exactly pro-style either.  

 

[Gas2No99]

On February 18, 2016 at 7:59 PM, Paradis said:

Don't mean to rag on Hogan who had a fine collegiate career - but he's not someone you go into draft targeting when your agenda reads; Must find franchise QB

 

It's universally agreed that there is no "Hands Down" Franchise QB in this draft. Mac won't/shouldn't mortgage the draft (multiple picks) for a NON SURE thing with the 2016 QB draft class. So, in going with the "GM Ron Wolf theory" that you keep picking a QB until you "hit" on one, I believe Hogan is MORE THAN ADEQUATE as a QB draft pick from the 3rd round or later. You don't provide any legitimate reason NOT to take him, let alone based on his resume and pedigree. 

And if Fitzpatrick has shown us anything this year, it's that you need COMPETENT QB decision making and experience (as many LIVE GAME reps as possible) to succeed at the NFL level. 

I came across an interesting blurb, GRANTED it's the Bills, but I feel Hogan will make a team that drafts him rather happy, if not immediately, definitely a few years down the road after sitting & learning the pro game:

With that in mind, we have our first significant information about Buffalo's priorities, courtesy of NFL Draft insider Tony Pauline. In Pauline's latest roundup of draft news, he shared this nugget about the Bills:

If the Buffalo Bills don’t grab a quarterback in the first frame one player at the position they will consider later is Kevin Hogan. I was informed the team came away from the Senior Bowl very impressed with the Stanford quarterbacks athleticism and arm strength and really like his next level potential.

Hogan is the type of player that plenty of NFL staffs could fall in love with. A three-year starter at Stanford (who also played significant time as a redshirt freshman), he led the Cardinal to a 31-10 record in the last three seasons, capping his career with a win in the Rose Bowl. He passes the quarterback selection criteria used by Bill Parcells*, and as a Stanford graduate with a career completion rate of 65.9 percent, he looks likely to pass John Lopez's 26-27-60 test as well.

Hogan has size, arm strength, and efficient play (8.5 yards per attempt, 75 career touchdowns versus 29 interceptions) on his side. He also plays in an offense with many similarities to Buffalo's - head coach David Shaw was previously the offensive coordinator for Jim Harbaugh, and Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman was the tight ends coach and offensive tackles coach on the same staff.

What might make NFL evaluators worry? Hogan's long and slow throwing motion, which is often reminiscent of Byron Leftwich, and his tendency to sometimes come out flat and have a terrible game. Want to read more? Here's an excerpt from my scouting notebook, where he is my eighth-ranked quarterback right now:

6 foot 3¼ inches, 217 pounds, 10⅛ inch hands, 32 inch arms

Watched: Northwestern 15, USC 15, Cal 15, Notre Dame 15

Hogan flashes some serious pro-style competencies to go with a good arm that would make many franchises take notice. He goes through progressions, takes snaps under center, can find a hot read under duress, and has a good feel for playing aggressively when it's appropriate.

Mechanically, he's a bit of a mess. He has a loopy throwing motion, and it's slow enough that it helps defenders key in on the pass. I've seen him make faster throws, but they're rare. He can also break down mechanically, as he did in the Northwestern game, and once that happened all of his accuracy basically went out the window. Bad footwork, inconsistent arm motion, etc. He's also not quite as advanced or talented as Philip Rivers (who I kind of see here) was coming out of college.

So what it all comes down to is, I see some Philip Rivers, but a worse throwing motion and an occasional tendency to play awful for a whole game. Landry Jones? I don't know. In my mind, he's a backup you pick in the middle rounds and hope he improves his bad tendencies before the contract runs out.

 

* Bill Parcels Criteria for Drafting a QB:

Bill Parcells’ four rules for drafting a quarterback

Thursday, 11 March 2010 , by :  Chris ?

As announced on Monday Night Football, via Blatant Homerism:

1. He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.
2. He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.
3. He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn’t ephemeral and that he has lived as “the guy” for some period of time.
4. He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.

Blatant Homerism also notes that, of the seven quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the 2000s, five — Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Trent Dilfer — met all four requirements when drafted.

 

 

So, in summary, Hogan seems like ANY other developmental QB prospect - both Good and Bad in his game. The Bad seems it can be coached up and improve with experience. But the Good is intrinsic and can't be coached up because he has an actual resume at top level competition with Pro-Offense coaching/schemes and he has thrived. Yes, he can have "flat" games, but we also witnessed that with our incumbent in week 17 2015 vs. Buffalo AND SB50 winner Manning who was "Flat" all year as well. Keep a STRONG and DEEP team around Hogan for him to succeed and provide COMPETENT QB play. Hogan doesn't need to be Superman to get the job done. 

I just don't understand why more people don't take him seriously as a Draft Prospect for the Jets in 2016 w/out having us to spend a Premium (Rounds 1 or 2) Draft pick on him. 

I'm on the Hogan band-wagon, I recognize his flaws as they are clearly stated above, but offers nothing worse, IMO, than the  Pundits' "Top QBs" - Went, Lynch, Goff, Cook - have to offer. Hogan has a StanfordDegree Brain to go along with his genetic Braun & Bloodlines. 

[Gas2No99]

Really? No one has SOME opinion WITH EXPLAINED RATIONALE on this guy Hogan? I'm no expert in College FB, but I simply don't understand why he's not considered a stronger prospect. please enlighten me from the darkness.

[Tinstar]

Why does it matter so much to you what other people think about your opinion of a prospect .  You have conviction about a player, go with it and allow time to determined the merit of your opinion .

 

  

[Gas2No99]

19 hours ago, Tinstar said:

Why does it matter so much to you what other people think about your opinion of a prospect .  You have conviction about a player, go with it and allow time to determined the merit of your opinion .

 

  

It DOES NOT MATTER to me "WHAT OTHER PEOPLE THINK" about my "OPINION OF A PROSPECT." I admitted that I am not the College Football Buff like some of YOU yahoos and I WAS CURIOUS to see OTHERS OPINE on why HOGAN, IMO, was not getting any mention as a serious prospect when, from the rather limited understanding I HAVE WHEN COMPARED TO OTHERS WHO POST CONSTANTLY on Draft Prospects, he fares JUST as well as the "Top" QB guys repeatedly mentioned. 

It's an INTERNET FORUM FOR DISCUSSION. If you are too obtuse to actually contribute, then ShutTheFückUp, don't lecture, & MOVE ON. 

And I was PRIMARILY interested in Paradis' opinion since he's such a DraftNut, not yours. 

[Tinstar]

5 hours ago, Gas2No99 said:

It DOES NOT MATTER to me "WHAT OTHER PEOPLE THINK" about my "OPINION OF A PROSPECT." I admitted that I am not the College Football Buff like some of YOU yahoos and I WAS CURIOUS to see OTHERS OPINE on why HOGAN, IMO, was not getting any mention as a serious prospect when, from the rather limited understanding I HAVE WHEN COMPARED TO OTHERS WHO POST CONSTANTLY on Draft Prospects, he fares JUST as well as the "Top" QB guys repeatedly mentioned. 

It's an INTERNET FORUM FOR DISCUSSION. If you are too obtuse to actually contribute, then ShutTheFückUp, don't lecture, & MOVE ON. 

And I was PRIMARILY interested in Paradis' opinion since he's such a DraftNut, not yours. 

My humble apologies .  I was just trying to tell you to believe in your convictions.

Your servant .

 

[Paradis]

On February 23, 2016 at 11:56 PM, Gas2No99 said:

And I was PRIMARILY interested in Paradis' opinion since he's such a DraftNut, not yours. 

Truthfully i haven't watched enough of him. What i did see when i saw him, was just a backup vibe at best. But based on how strongly you feel about this kid, i'll go watch some games and we can have a proper discussion. 

[Paradis]

On February 18, 2016 at 0:36 AM, win4ever said:

I'm not sure we can afford to pick a guy in the first and let him sit.  The team is pretty much in win now mode.  

Lynch really worries me with his downfield throws, that aren't just straight arrows.  To borrow a baseball logic, to me he has a great fastball, but struggles with his off-speed pitches.  I ended up looking at two more games, and he seems off with his throws that weren't just flat out lasers.  I saw I believe one throw, where the guy was wide open (I think the TE down the seam) that he had a nice touch on for a TD.  All the other ones weren't close, with a couple of close almost INTs.  It'd be interesting to see how he works out with throwing, because the more I watch him, the more I question him to be honest.  However, it's impossible to tell because of his O-line and offensive system.  

I would also love to see Lynch's interviews with coaches, because there are always a few throws where I feel it's a pure system call, where the defensive set up isn't factored in at all.  There are a bunch of WR screens, that have no shot even pre-snap, that he still throws.  These plays were blown up before he even threw the ball, but he forces it in there, and the WR gets stopped anyway.  

I like Goff better in the sense that I feel like he has tape of all types of throws consistently.  He make stupid mistakes too, and his arm is weaker but I see him being better at making reads, albeit his system isn't exactly pro-style either.  

 

I forgot about this...

 

I'll go back (yet again) but i don't see it man. He's more accurate than the other guys (sauf maybe Wentz on those centre field throws), less INTs, better decisions, better scrambling and generally more poised. I think the Lynch criticisms are largely manufactured. People LOVED this kid until november and then the nay-sayers came out of the woodwork based on the last 4 games of the season.. of which i detailed them all above. 

Tough to compare with Wentz though since he looked like he was playing against HS teams for the most part. 

[Tony The Wiz]

Top 5 Quarterbacks in this draft.        There are 4 parts on evaluation.    We have to evaluate this by what they did in the season or if injured his past.         Next  what they achieved in any all star games.   The third and very important their combine results if invited and fourth their Pro day.          

             My top 5  are     1. Jared Goff

                                        2.  Paxton Lynch

                                        3.  Carson Wentz

                                         4. Connor Cook 

                                          5. Nate Sudfeld

 

 

 

 

[Gas2No99]

On February 25, 2016 at 1:33 PM, Paradis said:

Truthfully i haven't watched enough of him. What i did see when i saw him, was just a backup vibe at best. But based on how strongly you feel about this kid, i'll go watch some games and we can have a proper discussion. 

I sincerely appreciate it and value your input/opinion.

I'm also starting to ManCrush on the SanJose St. RB Tyler Ervin, especially after seeing his smoooooothness in the combine drills.

[Tinstar]

Today's a huge day for 2 guys.

 

Connor Cook -  QB -  MSU

Christian Hackenberg - QB - Penn State

 

Lot's of money on the line for both players.

 

[Gas2No99]

2016 NFL Combine: Stanford Quarterback Kevin Hogan combine workout

By kylemonda on Feb 27, 2016, 11:46p + 

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

 

Stanford Quarterback Kevin Hogan worked out at the 2016 NFL Combine

 TWEET  SHARE (1) PIN 

After a brilliant career at Stanford, someone had to fill Andrew Luck's massive shoes. Kevin Hogan was that someone.

On the second day of NFL Combine workouts, quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends displayed their athleticism and skills in front of a variety of NFL scouts. Although Kevin Hogan may not have had the biggest spotlight on him, his legacy and expertise should prove worthy for NFL scouts.

 

Hogan's measurements are as follows: 
Height: 6'3" 
Arm Length: 32 3/8" 
Weight: 218lbs 
Hands: 10 1/4"

40 Yard Dash:
Hogan began his day as the first quarterback to run the 40 yard dash in the second group. He finished with a 4.80 in his first attempt, and later finishing better in his second attempt with a 4.78.

Kevin Hogan tied with Penn State's Christian Hackenberg for the fourth best 40 yard dash out of all of the quarterbacks. Hogan finished faster than other notable quarterbacks such as Oregon rival Vernon Adams, Cody Kessler (USC), and Cardale Jones (Ohio State).

Official 40 YD Dash: 4.78 seconds

Vertical Jump: 
Kevin Hogan and Dak Prescott tied for fifth with a 32.5" vertical jump. Hogan's jumped placed him higher than quarterbacks such as Carson Wentz (North Dakota St.), Trevone Boykin (TCU), and Vernon Adams (Oregon).

Official Vertical Jump: 32.5 inches

Broad Jump: 
Kevin Hogan tied with Jacoby Brissett (NC State) and Connor Cook (Michigan State) for 9th in Broad Jump with a leap of 9'5." Cook and Hogan have a history together as they played against each other in the 100th Rose Bowl.

 

Official Broad Jump: 9 feet 5 inches

3 Cone Drill: 
Finishing the 3 cone drill in 6.90 seconds landed him in fourth place among all quarterbacks at the event. His time placed him above Jared Goff (Cal), Paxton Lynch(Memphis), and many others.

Official 3 Cone Drill: 6.90 seconds

Passing drills: 
In the first of the passing drills, Hogan missed several throws. He hung the ball early multiple times and didn't seem to have the same type of power on the ball as the other prospects did. Kevin Hogan was called "body thrower," using his body to generate velocity and power into his throws, separating himself from other quarterback prospects at the combine.

Despite some of his faults, scouts called Hogan "the most sophisticated QB" based on his play-calling ability, reading the defense, and working the offensive line to his liking. He was compared to Kirk Cousins in terms of being a mid-round pick who could end up being a really good player that is being talked about by many teams.

Similar to his actual Stanford season, Kevin Hogan improved over time. As the drills and process continued, Hogan throws were polished.

Most of the QBs were inconsistent with their deliveries and throws, however Kevin Hogan did make a good case for himself at the combine.

Here is how Kevin Hogan stacked up against Andrew Luck from their combines:

40 Yard Dash: 
Luck: 4.67
Hogan: 4.78

Broad Jump: 
Luck: 10'4" 
Hogan: 9'5"

Vertical Jump: 
Luck: 36"
Hogan: 32.5"

3 Cone Drill:
Hogan: 6.90 
Luck: 6.80

Although his mechanics and footwork could be improved, there are few negative things to say about Hogan. His competitiveness consistently won him games, his ability to run the ball and extend drives, and his intelligence and efficiency explains why he is the Stanford record holder for career wins as a starting quarterback and a three-time Pac-12 champion.

Ultimately, Kevin Hogan had a good combine for a QB. He averaged in the top five in most of the events, displaying his range of abilities. There's no doubt that Kevin Hogan was a top performer amongst the quarterbacks.

[drdetroit]

On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 6:03 PM, Tony The Wiz said:

Top 5 Quarterbacks in this draft.        There are 4 parts on evaluation.    We have to evaluate this by what they did in the season or if injured his past.         Next  what they achieved in any all star games.   The third and very important their combine results if invited and fourth their Pro day.          

             My top 5  are     1. Jared Goff

                                        2.  Paxton Lynch

                                        3.  Carson Wentz

                                         4. Connor Cook 

                                          5. Nate Sudfeld

 

 

 

 

Goff and Lynch both over Wentz?  Ok buddy I'm glad you're not Mike Macagnan.

[NYJCAP2]

My top 5:

Tier/Rd 1

1a- Wentz

1b- Goff

Tier/Rd 2

3- Cook

4- Lynch

Tier/Rd 3

5- Hackenberg

 

[Paradis]

On February 26, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Tony The Wiz said:

Top 5 Quarterbacks in this draft.        There are 4 parts on evaluation.    We have to evaluate this by what they did in the season or if injured his past.         Next  what they achieved in any all star games.   The third and very important their combine results if invited and fourth their Pro day.          

             My top 5  are     1. Jared Goff

                                        2.  Paxton Lynch

                                        3.  Carson Wentz

                                         4. Connor Cook 

                                          5. Nate Sudfeld

 

 

 

 

What did you honestly think of the game vs Auburn... i see Lynch panned by too many people for the memphis november slide and the bowl game, while not really assessing those accurately. I mean, how many TDs did Mayhue drop in that span?? 

[Paradis]

On 2/15/2016 at 0:59 AM, win4ever said:

 

- He seems to have the high velocity throws all the time.  I haven't seen him with angle throws, where he throws over the defender and into the WR much.  It's thrown extremely hard, but on a line.  It's great to see that he can throw those passes at high velocity, but it's a matter of angles with these throws.  NFL defenders will take away direct angles, and he has to throw over the top of them, and I don't see a demonstrated ability to do that consistently    

[Rangers9]

The Jets org did not listen to Terry Bradway when he begged them to  draft Russell Wilson. The Qb I would draft (and who is closest to Wilson) is Vernon Adams. He's the kind of guy who as a rookie could maybe end up winning the starters job. We could get him easily in the 4th round maybe later. 

[CanadaSteve]

On 2/17/2016 at 7:59 PM, Paradis said:

Don't mean to rag on Hogan who had a fine collegiate career - but he's not someone you go into draft targeting when your agenda reads; Must find franchise QB

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well, to be fair, he wasn't going in the first round, but was a project.  But he has made some fine throws here, and looks 5x better than Kizer.  He just looks lost out there.