Were The First Six Games Really So Tough?

[LIJetsFan]

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/11/29/13764130/ny-jets-were-the-first-six-games-really-so-tough

Judging by how the 2016 season has actually played out the schedule may not have been as tough as advertised.  The Jets faced Cincinnati, Buffalo, Kansas City, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Arizona to start the season.  Of those six teams only Kansas City and Seattle appear to be locks for the playoffs.  Pittsburgh and Buffalo are just barely better than .500 and are both at risk of missing out on wild card bids, although Pittsburgh can still get in by winning the weak AFC North, in which they are currently tied with the Ravens for first place.  Arizona is a bad team going nowhere this year at 4-6-1 and Cincinnati is an even worse team going nowhere at 3-7-1.  Arizona, a bad team, completely dominated the Jets. Cincinnati, a very bad team, beat the Jets at MetLife Stadium.  Pittsburgh, a so-so team, destroyed the Jets.  Overall the teams the Jets faced in their first six games have a combined record of 34-29-3, a good but hardly killer record.  Take out their 5-1 record against the Jets and the combined record of the Jets' first six opponents is just 29-28-3, basically an average slate of opponents.

Based on what has actually happened in the 2016 season as opposed to the expected strength of the schedule, it looks like the opening six games were not all that tough after all.  The Jets lost badly to two excellent teams, Seattle and Kansas City.  But the Jets also lost badly to a bad Arizona team and got beat at home by an even worse Cincinnati team. Under the circumstances perhaps it wasn't the schedule that doomed the Jets.  Perhaps the Jets accomplished that largely on their own merits, or lack thereof.

[August]

Short answer. No. 

[drdetroit]

Any game is tough if you have no qb

[LIJetsFan]

So, Fitz turned out to have reverted to his underperforming mean this year and it had nothing to do with his inability to beat .500+ teams.  2015 was just an anomaly, plain and simple.

[section314]

At least we have draft tie-breaker vs Bengals and Cards.

[Beerfish]

It's the same each year going into a year people seem to set in stone a toughness of sched, then they adjust it half way though and again at the end.

People love to use this metric to further what ever pre-bias they have.

[southparkcpa]

15 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

It's the same each year going into a year people seem to set in stone a toughness of sched, then they adjust it half way though and again at the end.

People love to use this metric to further what ever pre-bias they have.

well....  regardless, we suck. 

[Jetster]

23 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

So, Fitz turned out to have reverted to his underperforming mean this year and it had nothing to do with his inability to beat .500+ teams.  2015 was just an anomaly, plain and simple.

Lol! Now Fitz can't even beat teams SLIGHTLY under 500. He sucks, his arm blows, he's not accurate, he's afraid to run now, the only thing he has going for him is HE TRIES HARD. I don't hate the guy, I'm just pissed we didn't move on & resign him. Foles would have been a better choice @ 1.8 million with zero against the cap in 2017. Foles can at least throw deeper & throw an out with more velocity. Oh well, water under the bridge but when fans are smarter than the organization its kinda scary.

[bitonti]

@ KC and @ PIT are terribly hard places to play, no matter how good or bad either roster is... the Jets can't even hit a damn field goal in Pittsburgh historically

 

even @AZ is a huge road trip 

[jackhuntr]

30 minutes ago, section314 said:

At least we have draft tie-breaker vs Bengals and Cards.

Unless we tie someone, they'll probably have a worse record by that 1/2 game. Talk about a kick in the nuts.

 

 

 

[Lupz27]

41 minutes ago, section314 said:

At least we have draft tie-breaker vs Bengals and Cards.

No we don't that's not how the draft works.  It's based on weaker strength of schedule, so the Jets get screwed every year when the Patriots account for 28 wins vs 4 losses every year.

[section314]

1 minute ago, Lupz27 said:

No we don't that's not how the draft works.  It's based on weaker strength of schedule, so the Jets get screwed every year when the Patriots account for 28 wins vs 4 losses every year.

So if you have the same record as another team, and you lost to them, you don't pick ahead? That's nuts.

[NoBowles]

Sometimes its not just who you play, but when you play them. 

[Lupz27]

3 minutes ago, section314 said:

So if you have the same record as another team, and you lost to them, you don't pick ahead? That's nuts.

Not unless your strength of schedule is worse then that team that is the tiebreaker.

[section314]

3 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Not unless your strength of schedule is worse then that team that is the tiebreaker.

Thanks.

[jack48]

we stink---plain and simple. we were not supposed to stink.  apply a rational model for explanation

[nyjunc]

No they were not, we just sucked.  

[nyjunc]

30 minutes ago, bitonti said:

@ KC and @ PIT are terribly hard places to play, no matter how good or bad either roster is... the Jets can't even hit a damn field goal in Pittsburgh historically

 

even @AZ is a huge road trip 

KC has played 5 games:

 

won by 6 over SD in OT

won by 6 over NO

won by 5 over Jax

lost to TB

they beat us by 21

Pitt is 3-2 at home this year and when is the last time we missed a FG there? 2004 playoffs?

[UnitedWhofans]

1 hour ago, LIJetsFan said:

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/11/29/13764130/ny-jets-were-the-first-six-games-really-so-tough

Judging by how the 2016 season has actually played out the schedule may not have been as tough as advertised.  The Jets faced Cincinnati, Buffalo, Kansas City, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Arizona to start the season.  Of those six teams only Kansas City and Seattle appear to be locks for the playoffs.  Pittsburgh and Buffalo are just barely better than .500 and are both at risk of missing out on wild card bids, although Pittsburgh can still get in by winning the weak AFC North, in which they are currently tied with the Ravens for first place.  Arizona is a bad team going nowhere this year at 4-6-1 and Cincinnati is an even worse team going nowhere at 3-7-1.  Arizona, a bad team, completely dominated the Jets. Cincinnati, a very bad team, beat the Jets at MetLife Stadium.  Pittsburgh, a so-so team, destroyed the Jets.  Overall the teams the Jets faced in their first six games have a combined record of 34-29-3, a good but hardly killer record.  Take out their 5-1 record against the Jets and the combined record of the Jets' first six opponents is just 29-28-3, basically an average slate of opponents.

Based on what has actually happened in the 2016 season as opposed to the expected strength of the schedule, it looks like the opening six games were not all that tough after all.  The Jets lost badly to two excellent teams, Seattle and Kansas City.  But the Jets also lost badly to a bad Arizona team and got beat at home by an even worse Cincinnati team. Under the circumstances perhaps it wasn't the schedule that doomed the Jets.  Perhaps the Jets accomplished that largely on their own merits, or lack thereof.

The Bengals game doomed them, IMO.

A lot of those games were on the road too

[JiFtheOracle]

All those teams suck except the Seahawks.  The Jets just suck a lot worse. 

Going to KC too, that's tough.  But that's it!!!!!!!1111

[Beerfish]

KC is all smoke and mirrors....and Justin houston.

It sill amazes me that for such an accomplished coach that Andy Reid is still the worst in the league in late game clock management when behind.

[OH THE PAIN]

Did we really need this thread ?

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, NoBowles said:

Sometimes its not just who you play, but when you play them. 

That explains the win against Baltimore. 

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, nyjunc said:

KC  PIT

 

in those towns the fans sell out the stadium and never stop cheering, even if their teams are down 3 TD. it's a true home field advantage, and tough road trips to win. 

the history doesn't lie, the Jets have lost their last three games @KC, and are 7-11 all time 

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-york-jets/teamvsteam?opp=16&ha=A

the @ PIT record is even worse, 1-10 all time in Pittsburgh 

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-york-jets/teamvsteam?opp=25&ha=A

In fact that 2010 win in week 15 was the only time the Jets have ever won in Pittsburgh. 

[NoBowles]

7 minutes ago, bitonti said:

That explains the win against Baltimore. 

It usually explains a lot. The Giants win against Dallas, our win against Baltimore, our loss against Cincinnati,the Bills win against the Pats, and on and on and on.

[nyjunc]

10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

in those towns the fans sell out the stadium and never stop cheering, even if their teams are down 3 TD. it's a true home field advantage, and tough road trips to win. 

the history doesn't lie, the Jets have lost their last three games @KC, and are 7-11 all time 

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-york-jets/teamvsteam?opp=16&ha=A

the @ PIT record is even worse, 1-10 all time in Pittsburgh 

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-york-jets/teamvsteam?opp=25&ha=A

In fact that 2010 win in week 15 was the only time the Jets have ever won in Pittsburgh. 

we do stink at Pitt but we stink against them at home too.  they have dominated us in our history.  we haven't missed a kick there since Doug Brien though.

 

We also hadn't lost to Seattle at home since 1983, we hadn't lost to Cincy at home since 1981, we hadn't to AZ anywhere since around 1975.  history is great we were the only team at KC to get blown out, Pitt is only 3-2 at home.  never easy places to play(just like Buffalo but we won there).

[rangerous]

past performances are not good indications of future performances.  with the exception of maybe 5 teams, the nfl is loaded with teams that can be up one year and down the next.  that includes the jets.  imo what happened is the jets started looking at this schedule and started doubting themselves.  i guess you can blame bolwes for not dispelling those doubts.  maybe he was awed by the schedule.  in any case they underperformed in just about every game.  they should have at least been 5-5 or 6-4 at the break but only managed 3-7.  good teams aren't afraid of anyone and believe they can win every game.

[cant wait]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

KC is all smoke and mirrors....and Justin houston.

It sill amazes me that for such an accomplished coach that Andy Reid is still the worst in the league in late game clock management when behind.

KC has one of the best rosters in the league. they've played well even without Houston for the past year 

[UnitedWhofans]

Of their 8 losses, 4 of them have been within one score: Pats, Bengals, Dolphins, Rams

Of the other 4, 3 of them were on the road in tough places. Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Arizona ( who have 3 of their 4 wins and the tie at home)

So no, it has not been as difficult. But it still was tough. Jets have been Murphy's Law this year. Injuries and no breaks and bad play. The opposite of last year

[NoBowles]

7 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Of their 8 losses, 4 of them have been within one score: Pats, Bengals, Dolphins, Rams

Of the other 4, 3 of them were on the road in tough places. Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Arizona ( who have 3 of their 4 wins and the tie at home)

So no, it has not been as difficult. But it still was tough. Jets have been Murphy's Law this year. Injuries and no breaks and bad play. The opposite of last year

Yup, if you look at last year, many of the games were very similar, we just happened to win many of those one score games that we lost this year. Last year could have been a 6-10 year as easily as we could be 7-4 right now.

[UnitedWhofans]

3 minutes ago, NoBowles said:

Yup, if you look at last year, many of the games were very similar, we just happened to win many of those one score games that we lost this year. Last year could have been a 6-10 year as easily as we could be 7-4 right now.

Correct. Which is why I believe it is fair to give Bowles a 3rd year. Which I think he will get because Woody has never had a quick trigger finger with HCs

[BurnleyJet]

3 hours ago, bitonti said:

@ KC and @ PIT are terribly hard places to play, no matter how good or bad either roster is... the Jets can't even hit a damn field goal in Pittsburgh historically

 

even @AZ is a huge road trip 

Your new job as Bowles PR man sucks.

[jamesr]

Pitt with Big Ben is a VERY different proposition to Pitt without. Pitt are not a "so so" team - they have a so-so record due to injuries.

We played them when Big Ben was on the field - that makes it a tough game.

[NoBowles]

1 minute ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Correct. Which is why I believe it is fair to give Bowles a 3rd year. Which I think he will get because Woody has never had a quick trigger finger with HCs

I just don't think Bowles has what it takes, but I will not go crazy if Bowles is given a third year. As much of a waste as I think it will be, I don't think its good practice to fire your HC every two years either.

[jamesr]

3 hours ago, NoBowles said:

Sometimes its not just who you play, but when you play them. 

Exactly. After Buffalo fired their OC (when we beat them) they really turned it up a notch. If we'd played them after that it'd have been a very different proposition.