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Bla Bla Bla's Mock Offseason 1.0


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Wanted to wait until Darnold and Rosen officially declared before I put my first mock out. Cap figures were determined using http://overthecap.com

Cap - $78.9M

 

Cuts

 

Mohammad Wilkerson – June 1st designation - $17M

-       Obvious move here, hope the door hits him on the way out

Buster Skrine - $6M

-       Rumor has it he received a flag while cleaning out his locker

Ben Ijalana - $4.75M

-       Beachum stayed healthy and performed reasonably well, not reason to keep a high paid backup around.

Matt Forte - $3M

-       Retires

Devin Smith - $1.24M

-       Can’t stay on the field, log jam at WR

James Carpenter - $4.7M

-       Might be an odd move but I believe this cut happens later into the offseason if another move I have works out.

 

Cap - $116M

 

Resign

 

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – 3 years $21M – $7M

-       No secret that the crown jewel of this FA is Cousins, his favorite target is his TE. ASJ wants to stay here long term and the Jets haven’t had competent play at the position in years. In the event we don’t get Cousins a young QB will love to have him as a security blanket.

Demario Davis – 3 years $15M - $5M

-       Has had a resurgence this year, he is rewarded with a new deal

Mo Claiborne – 2 years $16M - $8M

-       Still has nagging injuries, I think he’ll be okay with a 2 year deal that pays him a little more than he got last year. Gives us some time to work in our young CBs

Chandler Catanzaro – 2 years $4M - $2M

-       It’s not easy to kick in MetLife and Cat has done a good job

Quincy Enunwa – 1st Round Tender - $4M

-       You can call it a 2nd round tender if you want for $3M either way he will be a Jet next season

 

Cap - $92M

 

Free Agency

 

Tyrann Mathieu – 5 years $48M – $9.6M

-       Rumor has it that the Honey Badger will be cut if he doesn’t agree to restructure. If he’s on their roster on the first day of the league year he’s guaranteed $22M (3 straight years of $14 cap hits), he’ll be cut and reunites with his old defensive coordinator.

Ryan Jensen – 5 years $50M - $10M

-       The top Center in FA, no matter how you look at it we want to protect our new investment at QB. We make him the highest paid center in the league

Andrew Norwell – 5 years $60M - $12M

-       Much like Jensen, Norwell will be the top guard available in FA. Build the OL and protect the new QB

Sheldon Richardson – 5 years $60M - $12M

-       Rumor has it that the Jets and Sheldon are both open to reuniting this offseason. He is not longer in the drug program so suspensions should not be an issue barring anything new happening. He will have a void in his contract after 2 years if things go sideways.

Kirk Cousins – 6 years $168M - $40M

-       The Redskins place the Transition Tag on Kirk, this prevents him from going to the Broncos (something Kirk may be eyeing) and gives Bruce Allen the message to fans saying "See we tried to bring him back but Kirk picked a deal we couldn't match". This decision is re-enforced by @Ovechkin8 a Redskin poster on here. This contract averages out to be $28M per year making him the highest paid QB in NFL history. His first 2 years will be fully guaranteed to the tune of $75M, this allows a coach to come in after Bowles and Macc’s extensions have 1 year left and cut Cousins if he under performs. Keep in mind by year 3 Mariota/Winston/Wentz/Goff will have all gotten new QB contracts. Another fun side effect of this contract is that it makes it virtually impossible for teams to franchise QB's the next 2 years since it takes into account the average of the top 5 QB salaries. Contract breakdown:

Year 1 - $40M

Year 2 - $35M

Year 3 - $24M (12.0% of overall cap)

Year 4 - $23M

Year 5 - $23M

Year 6 - $23M

 

With teams like Patriots, Packers, Giants, Chargers, Steelers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Raiders all paying their QBs north of 12.0% of their cap and all being potential Super Bowl caliber teams I don't think there is any reason why Cousins on a lower % can't put us in this category. These contracts leave us with $45M in cap for 2019 with our only FAs of note being Enunwa and Kearse.

 

Cap - $8M

 

Needs heading into the draft: Edge, RB, LT, CB

 

 

Other Offseason Moves

 

-       Giants trade Eli to the Jaguars for a late round pick (if Eli stays put then I see Jags getting Bradford)

-       Browns trade a 2nd round pick to the Chiefs for Alex Smith

-       Bills retain Tyrod Taylor, after the first playoff push in nearly 2 decades team decides to use it’s assets building around him. May take a QB in round 2 or 3.

-       Arizona signs Blake Bortles, looks to draft a replacement at their pick.

-       Brees retires after the season

 

 

NFL Draft

 

1 – Browns – QB – Sam Darnold – I think Browns go QB at #1, I think Dorsey likes Darnold the best since he’s on record saying he’d stay away from Rosen (prior to becoming their GM)

 

2 – Giants – QB – Josh Rosen – Eli wants to start and is traded to Jags.

 

3 – Colts – EDGE – Bradley Chubb – Arguably the best player in the draft

4 – Browns – RB – Saquon Barkley – They could trade out of this pick for someone looking to leap frog the Broncos for Mayfield but I think they hold onto it and get the top weapon in the draft for their new QB

 

5 – Broncos – QB – Josh Allen – I think after missing out on Cousins Denver will want one of the top QBs. I could see the Giants going Allen and Rosen going here if the Mara’s don’t like Rosen’s personality in challenging authority. If Bills/Cardinals/Redskins trade up with the Browns then I think the Broncos take LT Mike McGlinchey

 

6 – Jets – EDGE – Arden Key – It’s been 13 years since we’ve had a legit edge presence, that changes on draft day. I don't see the Browns passing on Barkley but if a team trades up for Allen I could see us taking Barkley given our FA however that would chance my 2nd round picks so for the sake of argument no trade.

 

 

 

37) RB – Derrius Guice – He went through a lot growing up as a kid and seems like the type of personality we like to bring in. 1251 yards with a 5.3 YPC in the SEC, we’ll take that all day. His longest run of the season was 59 yards after that it was 33 yards so it’s not like he’s ripping off huge runs to pad his stats.

 

49) DE – Duke Ejiofor – Much like last year we double dip at a position of need, I wanted to go CB here but I can’t find any that I like. If we didn’t get Key I would have taken Ejiofor at 37, can never have too many pass rushers.

 

72) LT – Martinas Rankin – I’m not sure he’ll end up making it this far, we could consider taking him at 49 if we like his potential. Beachum has been fine but will be on the last year of his deal and has an injury history. Rankin could be his replacement in 2019 if he develops well.

 

Rest of Draft: BPA

Potential 2019 Needs - WR, LT, CB, ILB

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Started off great then started signing non-Enunwa Jets, none of whom are quality players. Loading up this roster with guys like ASJ and Sheldon Richardson are a step backward for this org. I am also not a big fan of Arden Key pre-combine. I don’t think they land both of those IOL. 

The parts I like:

- the cuts

- Cousins

- Matheiu, though I have doubts he becomes available 

 

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46 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Who’s playing corner opposite Claiborne??

Honey Badger

 

1 hour ago, usanyj said:

i think Ziggy ansah should be a guy to go after.  I want no part of Sheldon back.  I don't see Mac giving all our cap money to cousins.  If the jets go defense again in the first round I think the fans would revolt.

I think Ziggy will be franchised if he doesn't get a long term deal

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39 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Would he be good there? Doesn’t he usually play safety or nickel spot? 

I think he'd be fine, we play a lot of man with players shifting all over. Would not shock me in the slightest to snag him and then have him, Adams, and Maye rotate around the secondary between CB, SS, FS with Claiborne guarding the top WR.

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12 hours ago, usanyj said:

i think Ziggy ansah should be a guy to go after.  I want no part of Sheldon back.  I don't see Mac giving all our cap money to cousins.  If the jets go defense again in the first round I think the fans would revolt.

agree with ansah over sheldon, but I bet ansah gets franchised. Would not be totally against sheldon but would not overpay for sure. 

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I don't want Cousins, I'd prefer bringing back McCown (cost friendly contract of course) & drafting Mayfield @ #6...  I would also prefer Price with the 1st of our 2nd rd picks if he's there & a rb like Penny should be available in the 3rd.... I do like Honey Badger & if we could get Ansah that would be a nice haul, but I'm not against bringing back Sheldon.

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Nice thoughts bla bla bla.

Its not every day that a QB like Cousins becomes available.  The chances of him being a top 10 QB are far greater than any of the ones coming out of college right now so I say spend the money for him.  He's young enough.   Some may say he is borderline top 10 right now.

 

 

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Really nice effort man. I like the way you actually used the cap numbers and made reasonable estimates on what it would cost to sign some of those FAs. 

I have some concerns about Key based upon off field stuff Tony Pauline is reporting. 

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1 hour ago, maury77 said:

Really nice effort man. I like the way you actually used the cap numbers and made reasonable estimates on what it would cost to sign some of those FAs. 

I have some concerns about Key based upon off field stuff Tony Pauline is reporting. 

I haven't heard much about that, but I also haven't dove too deep into the draft outside highlight tapes.

4 hours ago, jetsons said:

I don't want Cousins, I'd prefer bringing back McCown (cost friendly contract of course) & drafting Mayfield @ #6...  I would also prefer Price with the 1st of our 2nd rd picks if he's there & a rb like Penny should be available in the 3rd.... I do like Honey Badger & if we could get Ansah that would be a nice haul, but I'm not against bringing back Sheldon.

My issue with this is if we are signing McCown the I think there is realistically no way we sit at 6 and wait for a QB to fall. I think we'll need to trade up to make sure we secure the one position we needed to this offseason. If that's the case I don't think we'll have 2 seconds, possibly no seconds. IMO it's Cousins or trade up unless they have an even grade for the top 4 QBs, I just don't like the idea of taking leftovers if we have the opportunity to get our guy.

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4 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I haven't heard much about that, but I also haven't dove too deep into the draft outside highlight tapes.

My issue with this is if we are signing McCown the I think there is realistically no way we sit at 6 and wait for a QB to fall. I think we'll need to trade up to make sure we secure the one position we needed to this offseason. If that's the case I don't think we'll have 2 seconds, possibly no seconds. IMO it's Cousins or trade up unless they have an even grade for the top 4 QBs, I just don't like the idea of taking leftovers if we have the opportunity to get our guy.

I don't see more than 3 QB's drafted in the first 5 picks... and 1 of them is Not Mayfield... Mayfield Will be there @ 6, no need to trade up... & we will still have both our 2nd rd picks. 

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30 minutes ago, jetsons said:

I don't see more than 3 QB's drafted in the first 5 picks... and 1 of them is Not Mayfield... Mayfield Will be there @ 6, no need to trade up... & we will still have both our 2nd rd picks. 

Unless we are indifferent on QBs 3-5 I think it is a mistake so sit at #6. Of course if we are happy with any of the top 5 QBs then by all means sit and wait, I would like to think we'd want a particular QB because he is "our guy"

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30 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

Unless we are indifferent on QBs 3-5 I think it is a mistake so sit at #6. Of course if we are happy with any of the top 5 QBs then by all means sit and wait, I would like to think we'd want a particular QB because he is "our guy"

We do... Mayfield will be there @ 6. 

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I love Mayfield and would sign up for him in a heartbeat if we can't get Cousins but he doesn't strike me as a pick Macc wants to make. I think the fact we have Morton gives us some hope but if we want Mayfield I think it would be a mistake to risk him being taken at 3, 4, or 5 especially when there is no reason not to give up picks. If we don't get Cousins we'll have $111M in cap that will be spent anywhere on the team, give up what you need to so you don't risk Buffalo, Arizona, or the Redskins trading in front of us. 

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9 hours ago, Grandy said:

Macc seems to really like Rosen, and I see a move-up happening, and would adore it.

If he can negotiate a trade up to the top 2 before FA starts then I'd approve. If we have to wait until close to the draft I think it would be a mistake to pass on Cousins.

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16 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I love Mayfield and would sign up for him in a heartbeat if we can't get Cousins but he doesn't strike me as a pick Macc wants to make. I think the fact we have Morton gives us some hope but if we want Mayfield I think it would be a mistake to risk him being taken at 3, 4, or 5 especially when there is no reason not to give up picks. If we don't get Cousins we'll have $111M in cap that will be spent anywhere on the team, give up what you need to so you don't risk Buffalo, Arizona, or the Redskins trading in front of us. 

I agree, macc has been pretty unimpressive... he should take Mayfield @ 6 & keep the other picks but who knows what he's thinking... we'll find on draft day.

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2 hours ago, jetsons said:

I agree, macc has been pretty unimpressive... he should take Mayfield @ 6 & keep the other picks but who knows what he's thinking... we'll find on draft day.

I'm happy with any of the top 4 QBs and feel one should be there for us but GMs tend to have "their guy" so I think rather than hope he is there I'd rather see us go up and get him if possible. I'd pay any price for that this season.

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On 04/01/2018 at 6:16 PM, bla bla bla said:

Wanted to wait until Darnold and Rosen officially declared before I put my first mock out. Cap figures were determined using http://overthecap.com

Cap - $78.9M

 

Cuts

 

Mohammad Wilkerson – June 1st designation - $17M

-       Obvious move here, hope the door hits him on the way out

Buster Skrine - $6M

-       Rumor has it he received a flag while cleaning out his locker

Ben Ijalana - $4.75M

-       Beachum stayed healthy and performed reasonably well, not reason to keep a high paid backup around.

Matt Forte - $3M

-       Retires

Devin Smith - $1.24M

-       Can’t stay on the field, log jam at WR

James Carpenter - $4.7M

-       Might be an odd move but I believe this cut happens later into the offseason if another move I have works out.

 

Cap - $116M

 

Resign

 

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – 3 years $21M – $7M

-       No secret that the crown jewel of this FA is Cousins, his favorite target is his TE. ASJ wants to stay here long term and the Jets haven’t had competent play at the position in years. In the event we don’t get Cousins a young QB will love to have him as a security blanket.

Demario Davis – 3 years $15M - $5M

-       Has had a resurgence this year, he is rewarded with a new deal

Mo Claiborne – 2 years $16M - $8M

-       Still has nagging injuries, I think he’ll be okay with a 2 year deal that pays him a little more than he got last year. Gives us some time to work in our young CBs

Chandler Catanzaro – 2 years $4M - $2M

-       It’s not easy to kick in MetLife and Cat has done a good job

Quincy Enunwa – 1st Round Tender - $4M

-       You can call it a 2nd round tender if you want for $3M either way he will be a Jet next season

 

Cap - $92M

 

Free Agency

 

Tyrann Mathieu – 5 years $48M – $9.6M

-       Rumor has it that the Honey Badger will be cut if he doesn’t agree to restructure. If he’s on their roster on the first day of the league year he’s guaranteed $22M (3 straight years of $14 cap hits), he’ll be cut and reunites with his old defensive coordinator.

Ryan Jensen – 5 years $50M - $10M

-       The top Center in FA, no matter how you look at it we want to protect our new investment at QB. We make him the highest paid center in the league

Andrew Norwell – 5 years $60M - $12M

-       Much like Jensen, Norwell will be the top guard available in FA. Build the OL and protect the new QB

Sheldon Richardson – 5 years $60M - $12M

-       Rumor has it that the Jets and Sheldon are both open to reuniting this offseason. He is not longer in the drug program so suspensions should not be an issue barring anything new happening. He will have a void in his contract after 2 years if things go sideways.

Kirk Cousins – 6 years $168M - $40M

-       The Redskins place the Transition Tag on Kirk, this prevents him from going to the Broncos (something Kirk may be eyeing) and gives Bruce Allen the message to fans saying "See we tried to bring him back but Kirk picked a deal we couldn't match". This decision is re-enforced by @Ovechkin8 a Redskin poster on here. This contract averages out to be $28M per year making him the highest paid QB in NFL history. His first 2 years will be fully guaranteed to the tune of $75M, this allows a coach to come in after Bowles and Macc’s extensions have 1 year left and cut Cousins if he under performs. Keep in mind by year 3 Mariota/Winston/Wentz/Goff will have all gotten new QB contracts. Another fun side effect of this contract is that it makes it virtually impossible for teams to franchise QB's the next 2 years since it takes into account the average of the top 5 QB salaries. Contract breakdown:

Year 1 - $40M

Year 2 - $35M

Year 3 - $24M (12.0% of overall cap)

Year 4 - $23M

Year 5 - $23M

Year 6 - $23M

 

With teams like Patriots, Packers, Giants, Chargers, Steelers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Raiders all paying their QBs north of 12.0% of their cap and all being potential Super Bowl caliber teams I don't think there is any reason why Cousins on a lower % can't put us in this category. These contracts leave us with $45M in cap for 2019 with our only FAs of note being Enunwa and Kearse.

 

Cap - $8M

 

Needs heading into the draft: Edge, RB, LT, CB

 

 

Other Offseason Moves

 

-       Giants trade Eli to the Jaguars for a late round pick (if Eli stays put then I see Jags getting Bradford)

-       Browns trade a 2nd round pick to the Chiefs for Alex Smith

-       Bills retain Tyrod Taylor, after the first playoff push in nearly 2 decades team decides to use it’s assets building around him. May take a QB in round 2 or 3.

-       Arizona signs Blake Bortles, looks to draft a replacement at their pick.

-       Brees retires after the season

 

 

NFL Draft

 

1 – Browns – QB – Sam Darnold – I think Browns go QB at #1, I think Dorsey likes Darnold the best since he’s on record saying he’d stay away from Rosen (prior to becoming their GM)

 

2 – Giants – QB – Josh Rosen – Eli wants to start and is traded to Jags.

 

3 – Colts – EDGE – Bradley Chubb – Arguably the best player in the draft

4 – Browns – RB – Saquon Barkley – They could trade out of this pick for someone looking to leap frog the Broncos for Mayfield but I think they hold onto it and get the top weapon in the draft for their new QB

 

5 – Broncos – QB – Josh Allen – I think after missing out on Cousins Denver will want one of the top QBs. I could see the Giants going Allen and Rosen going here if the Mara’s don’t like Rosen’s personality in challenging authority. If Bills/Cardinals/Redskins trade up with the Browns then I think the Broncos take LT Mike McGlinchey

 

6 – Jets – EDGE – Arden Key – It’s been 13 years since we’ve had a legit edge presence, that changes on draft day. I don't see the Browns passing on Barkley but if a team trades up for Allen I could see us taking Barkley given our FA however that would chance my 2nd round picks so for the sake of argument no trade.

 

 

 

37) RB – Derrius Guice – He went through a lot growing up as a kid and seems like the type of personality we like to bring in. 1251 yards with a 5.3 YPC in the SEC, we’ll take that all day. His longest run of the season was 59 yards after that it was 33 yards so it’s not like he’s ripping off huge runs to pad his stats.

 

49) DE – Duke Ejiofor – Much like last year we double dip at a position of need, I wanted to go CB here but I can’t find any that I like. If we didn’t get Key I would have taken Ejiofor at 37, can never have too many pass rushers.

 

72) LT – Martinas Rankin – I’m not sure he’ll end up making it this far, we could consider taking him at 49 if we like his potential. Beachum has been fine but will be on the last year of his deal and has an injury history. Rankin could be his replacement in 2019 if he develops well.

 

Rest of Draft: BPA

Potential 2019 Needs - WR, LT, CB, ILB

Nice work, especially all the costings and cap consideration 

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25 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I'm happy with any of the top 4 QBs and feel one should be there for us but GMs tend to have "their guy" so I think rather than hope he is there I'd rather see us go up and get him if possible. I'd pay any price for that this season.

I understand where you're coming from, I just don't want to see us mortgage the future on a QB I think we can get by staying where we are... again I'm hoping for Mayfield that's why I say that... if it's Darnold or Rosen that has maccs lips flapping then he's going to have to trade up like you said.

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8 minutes ago, jetsons said:

I understand where you're coming from, I just don't want to see us mortgage the future on a QB I think we can get by staying where we are... again I'm hoping for Mayfield that's why I say that... if it's Darnold or Rosen that has maccs lips flapping then he's going to have to trade up like you said.

Yea I'd love that but if Macc's job it on thine this year and he feels there are only 3 QB I think he will move mountains to make sure he gets one. I'm pretty positive we are going hard after Cousins, it just feels like it makes sense for Bowles since he likes a vet, it makes sense for Macc because he can grade Bowles with a legit QB and likely hire his next coach if a season goes sideways, and Woody gets a big name to get the Jets in the paper and see tickets.

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14 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

Yea I'd love that but if Macc's job it on thine this year and he feels there are only 3 QB I think he will move mountains to make sure he gets one. I'm pretty positive we are going hard after Cousins, it just feels like it makes sense for Bowles since he likes a vet, it makes sense for Macc because he can grade Bowles with a legit QB and likely hire his next coach if a season goes sideways, and Woody gets a big name to get the Jets in the paper and see tickets.

I'm not a fan of Cousins & his price tag makes that even more so...  bowles should have been let go & we should be hiring a new HC but alas these are the jets where mediocrity is considered progress & being last in your division deserving of a medal.

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20 minutes ago, jetsons said:

I'm not a fan of Cousins & his price tag makes that even more so...  bowles should have been let go & we should be hiring a new HC but alas these are the jets where mediocrity is considered progress & being last in your division deserving of a medal.

If he is transition tagged and his contract needs to be crazy high initially to prevent it from getting matched by the Skins then the cap hits in the additional 4 years will be low when in comparison to % of cap spent on QB. If this were a cap strapped team to even a $50M team I'd say no but we are talking $111M. There is speculation Cousins just wants to take the best fit while being fairly compensated, people assume that to he will purely go to the highest bidder. The 2 teams who have shown interest are the Jets and Broncos so he would probably be okay with either. Both have different positives and different timelines in their development. I think if he hits FA he'll take a good offer from the Broncos over a higher contract from the Skins, Jets, Browns, or Bills. Transition Tagging Cousins eliminates the Broncos from contention so it will ultimately come down to us. It will be interesting to see what will need to be offered, I think a 6 year commitment with probably the first 3 years instead of 2 years guaranteed gets it done even if it's not for top top dollar.

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1 minute ago, bla bla bla said:

If he is transition tagged and his contract needs to be crazy high initially to prevent it from getting matched by the Skins then the cap hits in the additional 4 years will be low when in comparison to % of cap spent on QB. If this were a cap strapped team to even a $50M team I'd say no but we are talking $111M. There is speculation Cousins just wants to take the best fit while being fairly compensated, people assume that to he will purely go to the highest bidder. The 2 teams who have shown interest are the Jets and Broncos so he would probably be okay with either. Both have different positives and different timelines in their development. I think if he hits FA he'll take a good offer from the Broncos over a higher contract from the Skins, Jets, Browns, or Bills. Transition Tagging Cousins eliminates the Broncos from contention so it will ultimately come down to us. It will be interesting to see what will need to be offered, I think a 6 year commitment with probably the first 3 years instead of 2 years guaranteed gets it done even if it's not for top top dollar.

If Cousins wants the "best fit" there is NO WAY he is even considering the jets... if he's looking to rob someone blind then the jets may be had... I still don't want him I'd rather take Smith or McCown over him especially if we're drafting "our" QB this year.

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1 minute ago, jetsons said:

If Cousins wants the "best fit" there is NO WAY he is even considering the jets... if he's looking to rob someone blind then the jets may be had... I still don't want him I'd rather take Smith or McCown over him especially if we're drafting "our" QB this year.

I think he will like that we believed in him back when Geno got knocked out they just didn't want to trade him. If transition Tagged (not his choice) that severely limits his teams to the Browns/Bill/Jets to write up a contract that the Skins can't match. That's the thing with Cousins, if you sign him you don't take a QB #6, you take the BPA and that could very well be a pass rusher which is the major piece on defense that has eluded us for the last 12 years. You immediately start talking playoffs for the next 6 - 9 years assuming the age of stays relatively the same. My overall preference would be:

1) Trade up for Darnold or Rosen

2) Cousins

3) Mayfield

4) Allen

With 3 and 4 being trade ups if we really like one QB in particular.

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