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Cap Floor effects on 2015 & 2018 FA Periods


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https://www.ganggreennation.com/2017/11/16/16664906/ny-jets-the-cheapest-team-in-the-nfl

Just came across this basically says because of Idzik year 1 we needed to shell out massive amounts of guaranteed money in 2015, if we didn't Woody would have needed to cut a check for the difference to the NFLPA. We are in a similar situation this year, so be ready for massive offseasons the next 2 years with tons of guaranteed money. 

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22 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2017/11/16/16664906/ny-jets-the-cheapest-team-in-the-nfl

Just came across this basically says because of Idzik year 1 we needed to shell out massive amounts of guaranteed money in 2015, if we didn't Woody would have needed to cut a check for the difference to the NFLPA. We are in a similar situation this year, so be ready for massive offseasons the next 2 years with tons of guaranteed money. 

In retrospect we would have been better off cutting the NFLPA a check

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2 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2017/11/16/16664906/ny-jets-the-cheapest-team-in-the-nfl

Just came across this basically says because of Idzik year 1 we needed to shell out massive amounts of guaranteed money in 2015, if we didn't Woody would have needed to cut a check for the difference to the NFLPA. We are in a similar situation this year, so be ready for massive offseasons the next 2 years with tons of guaranteed money. 

This is just factually incorrect.

1) In 2015, they needed to shell out cash, not guaranteed money in new contracts (never mind new contracts to FAs).

2) In 2018, they still don't technically need to do anything, since the 4- year period runs through the end of the 2019 season. So we are absolutely not in a similar situation this year.

Regardless, injury alone is the only palatable excuse for making bad signings. Spend money, fine. But make sure they're worthwhile signings not just signings for the sake of spending, and make sure they're worth it (unlike Revis, Mo, Harris, Cromartie, Fitz Part II, etc.).

As @SayNoToDMC said, signing nobody, and paying a penalty to the league, is literally wiser than making poor signings. At least in making a mandatory penalty payment to the league, the team doesn't also mentally check off a box for certain positions as "filled" so they stay away from better players in FA the following year, or in the draft for 2+ years. 

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Having all this cap space isn’t all it appears to be.  We have multiple young players that will become free agents come March.  Davis, Claiborne, Ealy, And Enunwa.

We won’t have a Center under contract, nor back up S, back up ILBs, starting QB, to name a few.  

So there will be plenty of opportunities to spend the money.  

The question is, that with so many other teams flush with cash, the free agents are going to get over paid based on supply and demand.  

For instance, two centers expected to hit the market are Jenson (Balt) and Richburg (NYG).

Are either guy worth signing to a contract guaranteeing them $10M+? Jensen who is a five year vet and one year starter or Richburg who is coming off a season ending injury?

Or guys like Sammy Watkins who had like 600 yards receiving this year but will command $13M + per season.

Its great to have the cap space but with only one upgrade at QB available for close to $30M and little else (Franchise defining,) I doubt we will see all the bang for our buck as teams have seen in the past.

 

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There are premium players available as there are every year, but not in every position that we need.  I agree that some team will throw stupid money at Watkins and may get value but more likely not enough given how many other WRs are available.  What the excessive cap does is allow us to overpay for premium guys now when we have the space, knowing that over the next few years, the money will settle back down to league averages.  

I think it's worth overpaying a guy like Andrew Norwell (G) who will be courted by a number of teams just to get him in and elevate the play of the OL.

I think it's okay to take a shot on a great player who has some injury risk and might be available as a result (if the deal is crafted properly) such as Tyler Eifert (TE)

I think it's okay to target a good FA who is an upgrade to your roster and pry him loose from a team with cap problems next year like Ryan Jensen (C)

You can also restructure some deals to clear up some space in forward years if you have the kind of players you can trust (i.e. not Revis).

Overall, it gives you flexibility to be a little more aggressive and you should use that power, not waste it by paying a league fine.  If you make offers and don't get the guys you want, so be it, but don't be afraid to overspend on players who, if they play up to their ability, would be worth it.

 

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

There are premium players available as there are every year, but not in every position that we need.  I agree that some team will throw stupid money at Watkins and may get value but more likely not enough given how many other WRs are available.  What the excessive cap does is allow us to overpay for premium guys now when we have the space, knowing that over the next few years, the money will settle back down to league averages.  

I think it's worth overpaying a guy like Andrew Norwell (G) who will be courted by a number of teams just to get him in and elevate the play of the OL.

I think it's okay to take a shot on a great player who has some injury risk and might be available as a result (if the deal is crafted properly) such as Tyler Eifert (TE)

I think it's okay to target a good FA who is an upgrade to your roster and pry him loose from a team with cap problems next year like Ryan Jensen (C)

You can also restructure some deals to clear up some space in forward years if you have the kind of players you can trust (i.e. not Revis).

Overall, it gives you flexibility to be a little more aggressive and you should use that power, not waste it by paying a league fine.  If you make offers and don't get the guys you want, so be it, but don't be afraid to overspend on players who, if they play up to their ability, would be worth it.

 

These are generally good positions to seek out in FA. They're typically among the lowest-priced positions, so it's a better deal than using a high draft pick on these positions. Instead sign less-expensive positions in FA and draft the more-expensive positions.

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If the Jets are going to be forced to spend then there's no better place to do it than on a Top 10-15 QB who has already proven he can play in the NFL.  Just lock up Cousins and let's move on to the Draft and use those 3 valuable picks in the first two rounds to get an Edge Rusher, RB and OLineman.  I also wouldn't be averse to using one of the two picks in Round 2 on a QB if someone slips.

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4 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

If the Jets are going to be forced to spend then there's no better place to do it than on a Top 10-15 QB who has already proven he can play in the NFL.  Just lock up Cousins and let's move on to the Draft and use those 3 valuable picks in the first two rounds to get an Edge Rusher, RB and OLineman.  I also wouldn't be averse to using one of the two picks in Round 2 on a QB if someone slips.

True, never know with Mayfield or Jackson and before someone jumps down my throat not saying they'll be there but it could happen. With at least one of them, seems to happens every year and neither is a slam dunk.

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53 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

These are generally good positions to seek out in FA. They're typically among the lowest-priced positions, so it's a better deal than using a high draft pick on these positions. Instead sign less-expensive positions in FA and draft the more-expensive positions.

 

Right you are.  That's why I have grave misgivings about drafting Quentin Nelson in round 1.  I'm sure he'll be a terrific OG (just like Warmack and Cooper, right?) but if you have the cap to go grab a guy like Norwell, do that instead and pick a position you normally can't get in FA like QB or LT.

 

Having said that, if you have the cap, and you can get a QB like Cousins, I'm good with that too.

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

 

Right you are.  That's why I have grave misgivings about drafting Quentin Nelson in round 1.  I'm sure he'll be a terrific OG (just like Warmack and Cooper, right?) but if you have the cap to go grab a guy like Norwell, do that instead and pick a position you normally can't get in FA like QB or LT.

 

Having said that, if you have the cap, and you can get a QB like Cousins, I'm good with that too.

Yea I'm rolling up the brink truck for Jensen and Cousins. I think my next target would be a CB though, if we have room for Norwell after that then I'm 100% on board. I think Edge is really the only position we won't be able to address this FA and we will probably roll the dice on Beachum for one more year. I do think we go RB/OL in round 2 though

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3 hours ago, nycdan said:

 

Right you are.  That's why I have grave misgivings about drafting Quentin Nelson in round 1.  I'm sure he'll be a terrific OG (just like Warmack and Cooper, right?) but if you have the cap to go grab a guy like Norwell, do that instead and pick a position you normally can't get in FA like QB or LT.

 

Having said that, if you have the cap, and you can get a QB like Cousins, I'm good with that too.

I read a scouting report on Nelson that said he will be better than Zach Martin, as a rookie.

I do agree with the premise of your statement though.  In the first round, you draft positions that are impossible to fill via free agency.  QB, LT, Offensive has playmaker, Pass Rusher, #1 CB, defensive playmaker.  I know this is so foreign to the Jets because we haven’t used a first round pick on a premium position in the past 9 we’ve had.

The way the Jets look at it is simple...pay an average guard like Winters $8M during FA, or draft a guy that will be cost controlled for at least 4 seasons that COULD end up being much better.

We don’t draft guards so just substitute S, 3-4 run stuffing DT, ILB, etc.

Im not saying draft Nelson at all because QB is basically the only position worth our attention this offseason.

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16 hours ago, nycdan said:

 

Right you are.  That's why I have grave misgivings about drafting Quentin Nelson in round 1.  I'm sure he'll be a terrific OG (just like Warmack and Cooper, right?) but if you have the cap to go grab a guy like Norwell, do that instead and pick a position you normally can't get in FA like QB or LT.

 

Having said that, if you have the cap, and you can get a QB like Cousins, I'm good with that too.

+1 the best guard is still just a ****ing guard. It's not that having the best guard isn't a terrific asset; it's that you don't need the best guard to win a SB (or even make the playoffs). You just need an adequate one (or as some teams show every year, frankly you don't need even that). 

I remember all the pre-draft fluff about Warmack and Cooper. They were the exception to the rule because they're not just any guard; they're both future 1st ballot HOFers so they were supposedly well worth a top 10 pick. Meanwhile neither of them were even good, let alone all-time greats.

If the position was so valuable, they'd be averaging in the mid-high teens in salary, and no team would ever let a good starter reach FA. Of course neither is true, because they're just ****ing guards. Even great ones are replaceable every year, unlike FQBs, elite pass rushers, high end LTs, lockdown corners, or it-factor WRs who are open anytime they're merely in single coverage.

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8 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

+1 the best guard is still just a ****ing guard. It's not that having the best guard isn't a terrific asset; it's that you don't need the best guard to win a SB (or even make the playoffs). You just need an adequate one (or as some teams show every year, frankly you don't need even that). 

I remember all the pre-draft fluff about Warmack and Cooper. They were the exception to the rule because they're not just any guard; they're both future 1st ballot HOFers so they were supposedly well worth a top 10 pick. Meanwhile neither of them were even good, let alone all-time greats.

If the position was so valuable, they'd be averaging in the mid-high teens in salary, and no team would ever let a good starter reach FA. Of course neither is true, because they're just ****ing guards. Even great ones are replaceable every year, unlike FQBs, elite pass rushers, high end LTs, lockdown corners, or it-factor WRs who are open anytime they're merely in single coverage.

Unless somebody clones Larry Allen.  That dude was ridiculous and would be worth the pick.   But I digress... :)

 

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