6 QBs in the 1st 13 picks - Giants trade back - Mccarthy to the Vikings, Penix to the Raiders, Nix to the Broncos - 1st round prediction

[Jdeet]

Rumors swirling around about the QBs in this draft and when they will go. The top 3 look like certainties. It will be a matter of who wants to trade up, to get McCarthy, who appears to be headed to someone at 4, 5 or 6. Many think Nix will fall to the 2nd round. Personally, I think the Broncos take him, without a trade, at 12. Raiders trade up for Penix. 

Here is what I think will be the 1st round Obviously, this is nothing earth shattering, but 6 QBs going in the top 13 picks, is pretty crazy. 

1) Bears - Caleb Williams - QB

2) Commanders - Jayden Daniels - QB

3) Patriots - Drake Maye - QB

4) Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr - WR

5) Chargers - Malik Nabers - WR

6) Vikings trade up with Giants - JJ McCarthy - QB (prediction of trade is #6 and #70 and maybe a late pick for #11 and #23)

7) Titans - Joe Alt - OT

8 Falcons - Jared Verse - DE

9) Raiders trade up with Bears - Michael Penix Jr - QB

10) Jets - Rome Odunze - WR

11) Giants from Vikings - Brian Thomas Jr - WR

12) Broncos - Bo Nix QB

13) Bears from Raiders - Laiatu Latu -Edge

14) Saints - Olu Fashanu - OT

15) Colts - Terrion Arnold -CB

16) Seahawks - Cooper Dejean - CB

17) Jags - Kool-Aid Mckinstry - CB

18) Bengals - Brock Bowers - TE

19) Rams - Byron Murphy ll - DT

20) Steelers - Taliese Fuaga - OT

21) Dolphins - Amarius Mims - OT

22) Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell - CB

23) Giants from Vikings - Troy Fautanu - OL

24) Cowboys - JC Latham - OT

25) Packers - Tyler Guyton - OT

26) Bucs - Chop Robinson - LB

27) Cardinals - Johnny Newton - DT

28) Bills - Xavier Worthy - WR

29) Lions - Jackson Powers-Johnson - C

30) Ravens - Graham Barton - OT

31) 49ers - Enus Rakestraw Jr - CB

32) Chiefs - Adonai Mitchell - WR

 

1st round - 6 QBS - 6 WRS - 8 OL - 5 CBs

[T0mShane]

Why would the Raiders come up to 9 for Penix, though? No one between there and 13 is going to take him. Seems unnecessary. 

[slats]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Why would the Raiders come up to 9 for Penix, though? No one between there and 13 is going to take him. Seems unnecessary. 

Not my expectation, but to get ahead of the Giants and division rival Denver, who are both allegedly interested in QBs? 

[Dcat]

5 hours ago, Jdeet said:

Rumors swirling around about the QBs in this draft and when they will go. The top 3 look like certainties. It will be a matter of who wants to trade up, to get McCarthy, who appears to be headed to someone at 4, 5 or 6. Many think Nix will fall to the 2nd round. Personally, I think the Broncos take him, without a trade, at 12. Raiders trade up for Penix. 

Here is what I think will be the 1st round Obviously, this is nothing earth shattering, but 6 QBs going in the top 13 picks, is pretty crazy. 

1) Bears - Caleb Williams - QB

2) Commanders - Jayden Daniels - QB

3) Patriots - Drake Maye - QB

4) Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr - WR

5) Chargers - Malik Nabers - WR

6) Vikings trade up with Giants - JJ McCarthy - QB (prediction of trade is #6 and #70 and maybe a late pick for #11 and #23)

7) Titans - Joe Alt - OT

8 Falcons - Jared Verse - DE

9) Raiders trade up with Bears - Michael Penix Jr - QB

10) Jets - Rome Odunze - WR

11) Giants from Vikings - Brian Thomas Jr - WR

12) Broncos - Bo Nix QB

13) Bears from Raiders - Laiatu Latu -Edge

14) Saints - Olu Fashanu - OT

15) Colts - Terrion Arnold -CB

16) Seahawks - Cooper Dejean - CB

17) Jags - Kool-Aid Mckinstry - CB

18) Bengals - Brock Bowers - TE

19) Rams - Byron Murphy ll - DT

20) Steelers - Taliese Fuaga - OT

21) Dolphins - Amarius Mims - OT

22) Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell - CB

23) Giants from Vikings - Troy Fautanu - OL

24) Cowboys - JC Latham - OT

25) Packers - Tyler Guyton - OT

26) Bucs - Chop Robinson - LB

27) Cardinals - Johnny Newton - DT

28) Bills - Xavier Worthy - WR

29) Lions - Jackson Powers-Johnson - C

30) Ravens - Graham Barton - OT

31) 49ers - Enus Rakestraw Jr - CB

32) Chiefs - Adonai Mitchell - WR

 

1st round - 6 QBS - 6 WRS - 8 OL - 5 CBs

		it's not impossible                           3:00:00 PM 4:00:00 PM   1 1 1 CHI ShanePHallam   Caleb Williams QB USC   4:00:00 PM 5:00:00 PM   1 2 2 WAS ovfd55   Jayden Daniels QB LSU   5:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM   1 3 3 MIN Willie   Drake Maye QB North Carolina   6:00:00 PM 7:00:00 PM   1 4 4 NYG xinik   J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan   7:00:00 PM 8:00:00 PM   1 5 5 CIN matthewwillson29   Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio State   8:00:00 PM 9:00:00 PM   1 6 6 ARI Campbell   Dallas Turner EDGE Alabama   9:00:00 PM 10:00:00 PM   1 7 7 TEN RicoL8   Joe Alt OT Notre Dame   10:00:00 PM 11:00:00 PM   1 8 8 BUF Silver&Black   Malik Nabers WR LSU Monday, April 15, 2024                           9:00:00 AM 10:00:00 AM   1 9 9 LV notacos4u   Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington   10:00:00 AM 11:00:00 AM   1 10 10 NYJ Dcat   Rome Odunze WR Washington   11:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM   1 11 11 NE Underdog   Brock Bowers TE Georgia   12:00:00 PM 1:00:00 PM   1 12 12 DEN BowesrBroncos13   Byron Murphy II DL3T Texas   1:00:00 PM 2:00:00 PM   1 13 13 CHI ShanePHallam   Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State   2:00:00 PM 3:00:00 PM   1 14 14 NO MaroonTyphoon   Jared Verse EDGE Florida State   3:00:00 PM 4:00:00 PM   1 15 15 IND RTTRUTH   Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA   4:00:00 PM 5:00:00 PM   1 16 16 WAS ovfd55   Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU   5:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM   1 17 17 ATL Falcons Guy   Terrion Arnold CB Alabama   6:00:00 PM 7:00:00 PM   1 18 18 PHI LAOJoe   Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo   7:00:00 PM 8:00:00 PM   1 19 19 LAR RTTRUTH   Xavier Worthy WR Texas   8:00:00 PM 9:00:00 PM   1 20 20 PIT StlCrtn   Amarius Mims OT Georgia   9:00:00 PM 10:00:00 PM   1 21 21 MIA notacos4u   Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State   10:00:00 PM 11:00:00 PM   1 22 22 LAC Dcat   J.C. Latham OT Alabama                             9:00:00 AM 10:00:00 AM   1 23 23 NE Underdog   Nate Wiggins CB Clemson   10:00:00 AM 11:00:00 AM   1 24 24 DAL Roadblock   Graham Barton OC Duke   11:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM   1 25 25 WAS ovfd55   Troy Fautanu OT Washington   12:00:00 PM 1:00:00 PM   1 26 26 TB AndyAmrine404   Cooper DeJean S Iowa   1:00:00 PM 2:00:00 PM   1 27 27 SF gidion72   Ladd McConkey WR Georgia   2:00:00 PM 3:00:00 PM   1 28 28 JAX LAOJoe   Adonai Mitchell WR Texas   3:00:00 PM 4:00:00 PM   1 29 29 DET Jace Sweet   Jer'Zhan Newton DL3T Illinois   4:00:00 PM 5:00:00 PM   1 30 30 BAL neanderthal ike   Chop Robinson EDGE Penn State   5:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM   1 31 31 SF gidion72   Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia   6:00:00 PM 7:00:00 PM   1 32 32 KC gidion72   Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

[HessStation]

5 hours ago, Jdeet said:

Rumors swirling around about the QBs in this draft and when they will go. The top 3 look like certainties. It will be a matter of who wants to trade up, to get McCarthy, who appears to be headed to someone at 4, 5 or 6. Many think Nix will fall to the 2nd round. Personally, I think the Broncos take him, without a trade, at 12. Raiders trade up for Penix. 

Here is what I think will be the 1st round Obviously, this is nothing earth shattering, but 6 QBs going in the top 13 picks, is pretty crazy. 

1) Bears - Caleb Williams - QB

2) Commanders - Jayden Daniels - QB

3) Patriots - Drake Maye - QB

4) Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr - WR

5) Chargers - Malik Nabers - WR

6) Vikings trade up with Giants - JJ McCarthy - QB (prediction of trade is #6 and #70 and maybe a late pick for #11 and #23)

7) Titans - Joe Alt - OT

8 Falcons - Jared Verse - DE

9) Raiders trade up with Bears - Michael Penix Jr - QB

10) Jets - Rome Odunze - WR

11) Giants from Vikings - Brian Thomas Jr - WR

12) Broncos - Bo Nix QB

13) Bears from Raiders - Laiatu Latu -Edge

14) Saints - Olu Fashanu - OT

15) Colts - Terrion Arnold -CB

16) Seahawks - Cooper Dejean - CB

17) Jags - Kool-Aid Mckinstry - CB

18) Bengals - Brock Bowers - TE

19) Rams - Byron Murphy ll - DT

20) Steelers - Taliese Fuaga - OT

21) Dolphins - Amarius Mims - OT

22) Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell - CB

23) Giants from Vikings - Troy Fautanu - OL

24) Cowboys - JC Latham - OT

25) Packers - Tyler Guyton - OT

26) Bucs - Chop Robinson - LB

27) Cardinals - Johnny Newton - DT

28) Bills - Xavier Worthy - WR

29) Lions - Jackson Powers-Johnson - C

30) Ravens - Graham Barton - OT

31) 49ers - Enus Rakestraw Jr - CB

32) Chiefs - Adonai Mitchell - WR

 

1st round - 6 QBS - 6 WRS - 8 OL - 5 CBs

Bowers isn’t get past the Bears at 9 

[T0mShane]

53 minutes ago, slats said:

Not my expectation, but to get ahead of the Giants and division rival Denver, who are both allegedly interested in QBs? 

I guess, but I think Penix and Sean Payton would be a weird marriage. But maybe Payton really is that desperate? 

[Augustiniak]

26 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I guess, but I think Penix and Sean Payton would be a weird marriage. But maybe Payton really is that desperate? 

he is desperate and i'm wondering now if they're the team that panics and gives up 1s in future years to get to 4 or 5 to get mccarthy.

[Integrity28]

I only clicked on this to see if the post was shorter or longer than the title. 

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, HessStation said:

Bowers isn’t get past the Bears at 9 

People seem to forget the Bears have Cole Kmet who just signed a huge extension.  They are not taking Bowers

The perfect fit for Bowers is the colts who would have to trade up for him.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

People seem to forget the Bears have Cole Kmet who just signed a huge extension.  They are not taking Bowers

The perfect fit for Bowers is the colts who would have to trade up for him.

if rome makes it past 6 best case is indy trades up for bowers at 9

[Warfish]

I think it's very possible the "OMG all the QB's go off the board my like pick 10!" hype might be a bit over-stated.

Trading multiple #1 picks and future picks to get J.J. McCarthy or Penix would be massive, massive risks.  I don't know if all the rumors that the Vikings and Giants and Raiders and Broncos are willing to sell their futures for these 2nd tier guys is going to turn out to be accurate.

If you're a team who is ok with one of these 2nd tier guys, McCarthy, Penix, Nix, and you sit at picks 11-15, I think you sit and wait and see who falls to you.  I think it's hard to imagine any of these teams are so deeply in love with one of these three to sell the farm to get them.  A low-cost trade maybe, but not the multiple #1's this year and next I've heard people float for the Vikings.  That borders on the stupidity of the Jets trades to ultimately get Darnold.

Sit still, and either a top-tier impact player will drop if others take those QB's, or get your QB.  It's not like any of the three are in "Super Bowl Now" mode with these young QB's after all.  

[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

		it's not impossible                           3:00:00 PM 4:00:00 PM   1 1 1 CHI ShanePHallam   Caleb Williams QB USC   4:00:00 PM 5:00:00 PM   1 2 2 WAS ovfd55   Jayden Daniels QB LSU   5:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM   1 3 3 MIN Willie   Drake Maye QB North Carolina   6:00:00 PM 7:00:00 PM   1 4 4 NYG xinik   J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan   7:00:00 PM 8:00:00 PM   1 5 5 CIN matthewwillson29   Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio State   8:00:00 PM 9:00:00 PM   1 6 6 ARI Campbell   Dallas Turner EDGE Alabama   9:00:00 PM 10:00:00 PM   1 7 7 TEN RicoL8   Joe Alt OT Notre Dame   10:00:00 PM 11:00:00 PM   1 8 8 BUF Silver&Black   Malik Nabers WR LSU Monday, April 15, 2024                           9:00:00 AM 10:00:00 AM   1 9 9 LV notacos4u   Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington   10:00:00 AM 11:00:00 AM   1 10 10 NYJ Dcat   Rome Odunze WR Washington   11:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM   1 11 11 NE Underdog   Brock Bowers TE Georgia   12:00:00 PM 1:00:00 PM   1 12 12 DEN BowesrBroncos13   Byron Murphy II DL3T Texas   1:00:00 PM 2:00:00 PM   1 13 13 CHI ShanePHallam   Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State   2:00:00 PM 3:00:00 PM   1 14 14 NO MaroonTyphoon   Jared Verse EDGE Florida State   3:00:00 PM 4:00:00 PM   1 15 15 IND RTTRUTH   Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA   4:00:00 PM 5:00:00 PM   1 16 16 WAS ovfd55   Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU   5:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM   1 17 17 ATL Falcons Guy   Terrion Arnold CB Alabama   6:00:00 PM 7:00:00 PM   1 18 18 PHI LAOJoe   Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo   7:00:00 PM 8:00:00 PM   1 19 19 LAR RTTRUTH   Xavier Worthy WR Texas   8:00:00 PM 9:00:00 PM   1 20 20 PIT StlCrtn   Amarius Mims OT Georgia   9:00:00 PM 10:00:00 PM   1 21 21 MIA notacos4u   Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State   10:00:00 PM 11:00:00 PM   1 22 22 LAC Dcat   J.C. Latham OT Alabama                             9:00:00 AM 10:00:00 AM   1 23 23 NE Underdog   Nate Wiggins CB Clemson   10:00:00 AM 11:00:00 AM   1 24 24 DAL Roadblock   Graham Barton OC Duke   11:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM   1 25 25 WAS ovfd55   Troy Fautanu OT Washington   12:00:00 PM 1:00:00 PM   1 26 26 TB AndyAmrine404   Cooper DeJean S Iowa   1:00:00 PM 2:00:00 PM   1 27 27 SF gidion72   Ladd McConkey WR Georgia   2:00:00 PM 3:00:00 PM   1 28 28 JAX LAOJoe   Adonai Mitchell WR Texas   3:00:00 PM 4:00:00 PM   1 29 29 DET Jace Sweet   Jer'Zhan Newton DL3T Illinois   4:00:00 PM 5:00:00 PM   1 30 30 BAL neanderthal ike   Chop Robinson EDGE Penn State   5:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM   1 31 31 SF gidion72   Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia   6:00:00 PM 7:00:00 PM   1 32 32 KC gidion72   Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

I don't see the Bengals.... did they trade back out of the 1st round here?

[Alka]

7 hours ago, Jdeet said:

Rumors swirling around about the QBs in this draft and when they will go. The top 3 look like certainties. It will be a matter of who wants to trade up, to get McCarthy, who appears to be headed to someone at 4, 5 or 6. Many think Nix will fall to the 2nd round. Personally, I think the Broncos take him, without a trade, at 12. Raiders trade up for Penix. 

Here is what I think will be the 1st round Obviously, this is nothing earth shattering, but 6 QBs going in the top 13 picks, is pretty crazy. 

1) Bears - Caleb Williams - QB

2) Commanders - Jayden Daniels - QB

3) Patriots - Drake Maye - QB

4) Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr - WR

5) Chargers - Malik Nabers - WR

6) Vikings trade up with Giants - JJ McCarthy - QB (prediction of trade is #6 and #70 and maybe a late pick for #11 and #23)

7) Titans - Joe Alt - OT

8 Falcons - Jared Verse - DE

9) Raiders trade up with Bears - Michael Penix Jr - QB

10) Jets - Rome Odunze - WR

11) Giants from Vikings - Brian Thomas Jr - WR

12) Broncos - Bo Nix QB

13) Bears from Raiders - Laiatu Latu -Edge

14) Saints - Olu Fashanu - OT

15) Colts - Terrion Arnold -CB

16) Seahawks - Cooper Dejean - CB

17) Jags - Kool-Aid Mckinstry - CB

18) Bengals - Brock Bowers - TE

19) Rams - Byron Murphy ll - DT

20) Steelers - Taliese Fuaga - OT

21) Dolphins - Amarius Mims - OT

22) Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell - CB

23) Giants from Vikings - Troy Fautanu - OL

24) Cowboys - JC Latham - OT

25) Packers - Tyler Guyton - OT

26) Bucs - Chop Robinson - LB

27) Cardinals - Johnny Newton - DT

28) Bills - Xavier Worthy - WR

29) Lions - Jackson Powers-Johnson - C

30) Ravens - Graham Barton - OT

31) 49ers - Enus Rakestraw Jr - CB

32) Chiefs - Adonai Mitchell - WR

 

1st round - 6 QBS - 6 WRS - 8 OL - 5 CBs

I gotta tell you, I don't agree with a few of your ideas.  For instance, "Don't you think that the difference between Odunze and Brian Thomas is a big one?"  Most people do, so I do not see the Giants going from 6 to 11 to get the 2nd tier of wide receivers, when he has perhaps the best, or maybe the 2nd best receiver staring them in the face at 6. 

I could definitely see the Raiders moving up for Penix, but why not try to do a deal with the Jets?  No way the Bears are picking another QB at #9, and no way the Jets are picking one at #10.  Who are you trying to get ahead of?  And you won't have to give up quite as much by trading with the Jets.  Unless of course, that another team wants to trade up with the Bears in order to snag Odunze, thinking that the Jets will snag him if they don't move ahead of the Jets?

[section314]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

People seem to forget the Bears have Cole Kmet who just signed a huge extension.  They are not taking Bowers

The perfect fit for Bowers is the colts who would have to trade up for him.

If he somehow fell into their laps, they would probably take him, depending on the top corners on board. Doubt Ballard would trade up, only have 7 picks. 

[#27TheDominator]

That would be a huge loss for the Giants.  Move down to 11 and end up with Thomas?  Yikes.

[Dcat]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

I don't see the Bengals.... did they trade back out of the 1st round here?

Bengals moved up to 5 in a trade with Chargers (me).  They offered  Higgins, 1.18, a 2d rounder and and a 2025 3rd to move up to 1.5.

They chose MHJ.  Chargers later moved down again for another 2d rd pick and picked Latham

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

People seem to forget the Bears have Cole Kmet who just signed a huge extension.  They are not taking Bowers

The perfect fit for Bowers is the colts who would have to trade up for him.

They also signed Gerald Everett for $6M.  Does that mean they don't need a TE or does it mean that they prioritize TE? 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

I think it's very possible the "OMG all the QB's go off the board my like pick 10!" hype might be a bit over-stated.

Trading multiple #1 picks and future picks to get J.J. McCarthy or Penix would be massive, massive risks.  I don't know if all the rumors that the Vikings and Giants and Raiders and Broncos are willing to sell their futures for these 2nd tier guys is going to turn out to be accurate.

If you're a team who is ok with one of these 2nd tier guys, McCarthy, Penix, Nix, and you sit at picks 11-15, I think you sit and wait and see who falls to you.  I think it's hard to imagine any of these teams are so deeply in love with one of these three to sell the farm to get them.  A low-cost trade maybe, but not the multiple #1's this year and next I've heard people float for the Vikings.  That borders on the stupidity of the Jets trades to ultimately get Darnold.

Sit still, and either a top-tier impact player will drop if others take those QB's, or get your QB.  It's not like any of the three are in "Super Bowl Now" mode with these young QB's after all.  

Could be, but just because they have similar draft grades doesn't therefore mean their beauty is seen as equal in the eyes of the beholder. Plenty often a team sees what they want to see, whether it's a physical or personality trait, where something - in their eyes - separates that player from the others around there.

Especially with a position like QB, where one can be presumed to fit one system more than another, I don't know that these teams just shoulder-shrug "yeah whichever one, I don't care" when their goal is finding a 10-15 year franchise QB starter.

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

if rome makes it past 6 best case is indy trades up for bowers at 9

It's going to be really interesting where Bowers goes. Seems it would holy-crap shock few people to see him up around 8-ish or down around 18-ish.

Eifert was projected in/around pick 10 iirc. So was OJ Howard. Eifert not only fell to 21, but did so in a really weak 1st round class to boot; Howard fell down to 19, and at least here plenty were projecting him to the Jets way up at #6, and plenty had him around 10 or higher, even in a class that boasted 4 highly-touted QB prospects.

Then despite a boatload of QBs projected up top, plus another handful more elite prospects at WR, LT, and CB, Pitts still went way up at #4.

I'm not qualified to compare those guys and Bowers; just making a less than enlightened observation that it'll be interesting to see how high (or low) Bowers ends up going tomorrow.

[Mr. Rogers]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Why would the Raiders come up to 9 for Penix, though? No one between there and 13 is going to take him. Seems unnecessary. 

I don't think it's absurd. Obviously with the board laid out like this you can say that, but in reality they may be wary of the Giants or Broncos taking him before 13. Both teams are reportedly interested. 

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's going to be really interesting where Bowers goes. Seems it would holy-crap shock few people to see him up around 8-ish or down around 18-ish.

Eifert was projected in/around pick 10 iirc. So was OJ Howard. Eifert not only fell to 21, but did so in a really weak 1st round class to boot; Howard fell down to 19, and at least here plenty were projecting him to the Jets way up at #6, and plenty had him around 10 or higher, even in a class that boasted 4 highly-touted QB prospects.

Then despite a boatload of QBs projected up top, plus another handful more elite prospects at WR, LT, and CB, Pitts still went way up at #4.

I'm not qualified to compare those guys and Bowers; just making a less than enlightened observation that it'll be interesting to see how high (or low) Bowers ends up going tomorrow.

I think bowers will suffer more b/c of the overall strength of the qb/wr/OT positions at the top rather than his TE designation.  Seems likely at least 4 qbs go top 12, maybe 5-6 top 15.  Throw in 3 wrs top 10 and a few good tackles.  Unless there’s a team like Indy or jax who absolutely wants their young qb to have him, bowers could easily fall.  

 

[32EBoozer]

45 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Bengals moved up to 5 in a trade with Chargers (me).  They offered  Higgins, 1.18, a 2d rounder and and a 2025 3rd to move up to 1.5.

They chose MHJ.  Chargers later moved down again for another 2d rd pick and picked Latham

I never would have guessed in my wildest dreams to look for a trade-up from 18 to 5. Hillarious!

[Warfish]

16 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Could be, but just because they have similar draft grades doesn't therefore mean their beauty is seen as equal in the eyes of the beholder. Plenty often a team sees what they want to see, whether it's a physical or personality trait, where something - in their eyes - separates that player from the others around there.

Especially with a position like QB, where one can be presumed to fit one system more than another, I don't know that these teams just shoulder-shrug "yeah whichever one, I don't care" when their goal is finding a 10-15 year franchise QB starter.

If their goal is finding a 10-15 year starter, the odds are very low that the 6th QB taken is likely to be that guy.  Not impossible, certainly, but far FAR from certain too.

Whereas trading away two #1 picks this year and a #1 next year and a starting OL (the rumored Vikings trade up) is pretty certain to hurt, period.

You're not wrong at all, I just think we're getting ALOT of hype in this "mislead everyone" time right before the draft.

That's the fun, to see how it all plays out.

[Mr. Rogers]

9 hours ago, Jdeet said:

Rumors swirling around about the QBs in this draft and when they will go. The top 3 look like certainties. It will be a matter of who wants to trade up, to get McCarthy, who appears to be headed to someone at 4, 5 or 6. Many think Nix will fall to the 2nd round. Personally, I think the Broncos take him, without a trade, at 12. Raiders trade up for Penix. 

Here is what I think will be the 1st round Obviously, this is nothing earth shattering, but 6 QBs going in the top 13 picks, is pretty crazy. 

1) Bears - Caleb Williams - QB

2) Commanders - Jayden Daniels - QB

3) Patriots - Drake Maye - QB

4) Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr - WR

5) Chargers - Malik Nabers - WR

6) Vikings trade up with Giants - JJ McCarthy - QB (prediction of trade is #6 and #70 and maybe a late pick for #11 and #23)

7) Titans - Joe Alt - OT

8 Falcons - Jared Verse - DE

9) Raiders trade up with Bears - Michael Penix Jr - QB

10) Jets - Rome Odunze - WR

11) Giants from Vikings - Brian Thomas Jr - WR

12) Broncos - Bo Nix QB

13) Bears from Raiders - Laiatu Latu -Edge

14) Saints - Olu Fashanu - OT

15) Colts - Terrion Arnold -CB

16) Seahawks - Cooper Dejean - CB

17) Jags - Kool-Aid Mckinstry - CB

18) Bengals - Brock Bowers - TE

19) Rams - Byron Murphy ll - DT

20) Steelers - Taliese Fuaga - OT

21) Dolphins - Amarius Mims - OT

22) Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell - CB

23) Giants from Vikings - Troy Fautanu - OL

24) Cowboys - JC Latham - OT

25) Packers - Tyler Guyton - OT

26) Bucs - Chop Robinson - LB

27) Cardinals - Johnny Newton - DT

28) Bills - Xavier Worthy - WR

29) Lions - Jackson Powers-Johnson - C

30) Ravens - Graham Barton - OT

31) 49ers - Enus Rakestraw Jr - CB

32) Chiefs - Adonai Mitchell - WR

 

1st round - 6 QBS - 6 WRS - 8 OL - 5 CBs

I don't hate the mock, but you got something against Dallas Turner? Or did ya just forget him? I reckon a number of these teams, particularly in the 20s, would be throwing a party if he was available.

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Rogers said:

I don't think it's absurd. Obviously with the board laid out like this you can say that, but in reality they may be wary of the Giants or Broncos taking him before 13. Both teams are reportedly interested. 

Penix is this year’s Kenny Pickett. 

[Mr. Rogers]

7 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's going to be really interesting where Bowers goes. Seems it would holy-crap shock few people to see him up around 8-ish or down around 18-ish.

Eifert was projected in/around pick 10 iirc. So was OJ Howard. Eifert not only fell to 21, but did so in a really weak 1st round class to boot; Howard fell down to 19, and at least here plenty were projecting him to the Jets way up at #6, and plenty had him around 10 or higher, even in a class that boasted 4 highly-touted QB prospects.

Then despite a boatload of QBs projected up top, plus another handful more elite prospects at WR, LT, and CB, Pitts still went way up at #4.

I'm not qualified to compare those guys and Bowers; just making a less than enlightened observation that it'll be interesting to see how high (or low) Bowers ends up going tomorrow.

I agree whole heartedly with this take. I've said this in other threads, but I think many mock drafters have Bowers very high in their rankings and can't help mocking him high (to the Jets, Bears, titans, etc) to feel justified about that. I've seen kiper and at least one nfl.com analyst admit as much.

In reality, I think NFL gms will showcase the modern "premium position" mentality and he'll end up in that 15-20 range. The colts feel like the sweet spot to me. I don't buy all the way I to the "premium" thing, but so many of the top teams have needs at those positions and talent available to fill those needs.

[Sperm Edwards]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think bowers will suffer more b/c of the overall strength of the qb/wr/OT positions at the top rather than his TE designation.  Seems likely at least 4 qbs go top 12, maybe 5-6 top 15.  Throw in 3 wrs top 10 and a few good tackles.  Unless there’s a team like Indy or jax who absolutely wants their young qb to have him, bowers could easily fall.  

 

Sounds eerily similar to the challenges facing Pitts and his draft slot in 2021, no?

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Penix is this year’s Kenny Pickett. 

Does he also have tiny little baby hands?

[Mr. Rogers]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Penix is this year’s Kenny Pickett. 

Hahaha I didn't vouch for Penix, I was just explaining why I think the Raiders could trade up if they like him.

Personally, I think Penix outshines Pickett, both in terms of arm talent and the college production he's shown us. Pickett was the "best" of a horrible batch of QBs, Penix is viewed around the 5th best of a supposedly "good" group.

Nonetheless, if you think Penix will bust, you're probably right. Most young QBs do. I like him but I wouldn't bet real money on him sticking as an NFL starter. Might draft him in dynasty fantasy if he falls though. 

[Dcat]

9 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

I never would have guessed in my wildest dreams to look for a trade-up from 18 to 5. Hillarious!

yeah... just to swap Higgins for MHJ.  Hey, they made the offer... I grabbed it. Helped me do a good draft for chargers.

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If their goal is finding a 10-15 year starter, the odds are very low that the 6th QB taken is likely to be that guy.  Not impossible, certainly, but far FAR from certain too.

Whereas trading away two #1 picks this year and a #1 next year and a starting OL (the rumored Vikings trade up) is pretty certain to hurt, period.

You're not wrong at all, I just think we're getting ALOT of hype in this "mislead everyone" time right before the draft.

That's the fun, to see how it all plays out.

Well I think we're talking about the 4th QB taken not the 6th QB taken. 

It's quite common for the top 3 QB prospects aren't the 1-2-3 best NFL QBs.

I don't know that I'm right; I just think we're looking at it from a prospect ranking - almost like a numerical grade comparison - than how a team feels about an individual prospect's strengths or presumed system-fit, that (in the eyes of the next QB-drafting team) lifts the 4th decidedly above the 5th and 6th on the board.

Josh Rosen was expected by many/most to get drafted no later than #3. Not only did he drop to #11 unexpectedly, but there isn't a person on earth who'd still draft him ahead of the 5th one taken, who went way down at #32, whom some saw as undraftable as a QB. So again, eye of the beholder. Sometimes team guess way, way wrong on that (like every Jets QB drafted in this past generation, for example), and sometimes the one who is smitten with a prospect's upside is totally correct, and they end up with Lamar Jackson. 

[Warfish]

25 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well I think we're talking about the 4th QB taken not the 6th QB taken. 

It's quite common for the top 3 QB prospects aren't the 1-2-3 best NFL QBs.

I don't know that I'm right; I just think we're looking at it from a prospect ranking - almost like a numerical grade comparison - than how a team feels about an individual prospect's strengths or presumed system-fit, that (in the eyes of the next QB-drafting team) lifts the 4th decidedly above the 5th and 6th on the board.

Josh Rosen was expected by many/most to get drafted no later than #3. Not only did he drop to #11 unexpectedly, but there isn't a person on earth who'd still draft him ahead of the 5th one taken, who went way down at #32, whom some saw as undraftable as a QB. So again, eye of the beholder. Sometimes team guess way, way wrong on that (like every Jets QB drafted in this past generation, for example), and sometimes the one who is smitten with a prospect's upside is totally correct, and they end up with Lamar Jackson. 

Good points one and all.

I guess I'm just cynical that a team like the Vikings values the 4th->6th QB's (McCarthy/Penix/Nix) enough to trade three #1 picks and starting OT to get them.  It's hard to see them being thought of by anyone as worth that as prospects.

Or that the mad rush for QB will have all 6 go before pick 15.  Without looking, that would be near-on historic, wouldn't it?  6 QB's taken prior to the middle-pick of the 1st round?

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

They also signed Gerald Everett for $6M.  Does that mean they don't need a TE or does it mean that they prioritize TE? 

Kmet, Everrett, Keenan allen (a true security blanket type of wr) and DJ moore one of the most underrated players in the leauge.  I'll be highly surprised if they go bowers or wr at their spot.

[Beerfish]

51 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Penix is this year’s Kenny Pickett. 

I think penix is vastly better than pickett, this years pickett is mcCarthy and or nix imo.

[Mr. Rogers]

23 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Kmet, Everrett, Keenan allen (a true security blanket type of wr) and DJ moore one of the most underrated players in the leauge.  I'll be highly surprised if they go bowers or wr at their spot.

I don't know about "highly surprised" but I agree. I think the Bears will be looking in the trenches. 

I think Bowers is safe to rule out, but I'm not as sure about WRs. Their depth behind Allen and Moore is horrid, and Allen may leave after this year chasing a ring. If the Jets can be in the market for a WR so can the Bears, particularly since they're helping a rookie QB and not Aaron Rodgers. I HOPE they pass on a WR though.