Forum on DK Metcalf

[maury77]

With a few of you guys pounding the table for DK, it's time to put him under the microphone

Let's start off with DK facing off against draft darling Greedy Williams

 

[Beaver]

Here is a recent picture of him.   AJ Brown is on the far right cut off.

 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Beaver said:

Here is a recent picture of him.   AJ Brown is on the far right cut off.

 

Looks just like me

[maury77]

* Alpha male physique

* long strider who looks fast on film, but I'm interested in what his 3 cone is going to look like as I think he may lack some quickness

* catches with his hands, but is prone to drops (I saw him put 2-3 on the ground against LSU)

* Uses a nice stutter step to gain separation on his releases

* Nothing special when adjusting to the ball in the air

* Very limited route tree in college. Mainly ran 9s and dig routes

I think Metcalf is a projection pick. He has a lot of very good tools, but he didn't have very good production in college and I have questions about his hands and ability to make contested catches. I would be comfortable in the late first, early second round with him, but I just don't see enough on film to warrant picking him in the top 10. 

 

 

[cant wait]

4 hours ago, Beaver said:

Here is a recent picture of him.   AJ Brown is on the far right cut off.

 

JFC this is a WR? he looks like laron landry at his roidest

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, maury77 said:

* Alpha male physique

* long strider who looks fast on film, but I'm interested in what his 3 cone is going to look like as I think he may lack some quickness

* catches with his hands, but is prone to drops (I saw him put 2-3 on the ground against LSU)

* Uses a nice stutter step to gain separation on his releases

* Nothing special when adjusting to the ball in the air

* Very limited route tree in college. Mainly ran 9s and dig routes

I think Metcalf is a projection pick. He has a lot of very good tools, but he didn't have very good production in college and I have questions about his hands and ability to make contested catches. I would be comfortable in the late first, early second round with him, but I just don't see enough on film to warrant picking him in the top 10. 

A lot the excitement is based on sizzle reel material, true. 

I haven't done a deep dive yet, and I will. I have a couple players I'd planned to get to first however. But i'll get to him around the time i want to do some post-combine rankings. 

 

[JustInFudge]

I legit have no idea why this board is obsessed with this guy.  I wouldnt touch him at all.  

I havent seen this board so over the top on a prospect this sh*tty since Paxton Lynch.

 

[section314]

Isn’t his teammate Brown way better?

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, section314 said:

Isn’t his teammate Brown way better?

In the same amount of years with the same QB's - Brown produced 122 more catches, 1700+ yards and 5 more TD's.

But Metcalf looks great with a shirt off. 

[section314]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

In the same amount of years with the same QB's - Brown produced 122 more catches, 1700+ yards and 5 more TD's.

But Metcalf looks great with a shirt off. 

Offensive version of Gholston?

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, section314 said:

Offensive version of Gholston?

Gholston was much more productive in college than Metcalf...and healthy.

Again, I have no clue why this board is so obsessed with Metcalf.  He spent his entire career running 2 routes and not very well, I might add.

 

 

[#27TheDominator]

16 minutes ago, JiF said:

Gholston was much more productive in college than Metcalf...and healthy.

Again, I have no clue why this board is so obsessed with Metcalf.  He spent his entire career running 2 routes and not very well, I might add.

I liked his grandpa? 

[maury77]

I know many are not fans of the wait until next year approach, but would Metcalf even crack the top 5 of next year's class? I don't think he would:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/30/the-2020-wr-class-could-truly-be-historic/

[Paradis]

Higgins vs Jeudy vs Lamb next year is going to be better than porn.  

[Skeet Ulrich]

So who plays WR when he's inevitably suspended for PEDs?

[derp]

I know he’s really talented and some big draft guys seem to be fans of his, but I was hoping to see a more natural receiver than in those first couple of clips.

[Jet_Engine1]

5 hours ago, JiF said:

In the same amount of years with the same QB's - Brown produced 122 more catches, 1700+ yards and 5 more TD's.

But Metcalf looks great with a shirt off. 

Yeah. That's it.

[JustInFudge]

24 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Yeah. That's it.

I'm sorry, did you explain why Brown produced at an elite level with the same QB's as Metcalf, or just the shirt off thingy? 

[BCJet]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

I'm sorry, did you explain why Brown produced at an elite level with the same QB's as Metcalf, or just the shirt off thingy? 

I had this same "discussion" with the Clemson poster in the Quentin Williams thread that I couldn't understand the love for Metcalf.  From what I saw he basically runs straight down the field and thats it, but I never got an actual answer to how metcalf's skillset translates to the NFL (and the sec103 guy knows college football).

Zero chance any of these WRs deserve to go top 10.

[jetsons]

On 2/11/2019 at 4:56 PM, Beaver said:

Here is a recent picture of him.   AJ Brown is on the far right cut off.

 

David Boston says hello... musculature on a receiver means Zero... Just ask Jerry Rice

 

[King P]

On 2/12/2019 at 11:37 AM, section314 said:

Isn’t his teammate Brown way better?

Brown has been better than Metcalf.

But Jarvis Landry was also the better receiver between him and Odell Beckham at LSU.

So being better in college does not always translate to being better in the pros

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, King P said:

Brown has been better than Metcalf.

But Jarvis Landry was also the better receiver between him and Odell Beckham at LSU.

So being better in college does not always translate to being better in the pros

Meh, not really.  Landry had a great Junior year but Odell was electric from Day 1 as freshman.  He made jaw dropping plays in both the passing and return game.  Landry's junior year was awesome and he made up ground numbers wise with Odell but Odell had more receptions, yards, and ypc in his career.  The only category Landry was higher was TD's 15 vs. 12...but Odell added 2 in the return game so it's really 14 vs. 15.

Odell

						Receiving				Rushing				Scrimmage
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
Career	LSU					143	2340	16.4	12	7	77	11.0	0	150	2417	16
*2011	LSU	SEC	FR	WR	14	41	475	11.6	2	2	19	9.5	0	43	494	11.5	2
*2012	LSU	SEC	SO	WR	13	43	713	16.6	2					43	713	16.6	2
*2013	LSU	SEC		WR	13	59	1152	19.5	8	5	58	11.6	0	64	1210	18.9	8

Landry

						Receiving				Rushing				Scrimmage
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
Career	LSU					137	1809	13.2	15	0	0		0	137	1809	13.2	15
*2011	LSU	SEC	FR	WR	14	4	43	10.8	0					4	43	10.8	0
*2012	LSU	SEC	SO	WR	13	56	573	10.2	5					56	573	10.2	5
*2013	LSU	SEC	JR	WR	13	77	1193	15.5	10	0	0		0	77	1193	15.5	10

 

Now compare Metcalf to Brown:

Brown

 

	Receiving				Rushing				Scrimmage
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
Career	Ole Miss					189	2984	15.8	19	0	0		0	189	2984	15.8	19
2016	Ole Miss	SEC	FR	WR	11	29	412	14.2	2	0	0		0	29	412	14.2	2
2017	Ole Miss	SEC	SO	WR	11	75	1252	16.7	11	0	0		0	75	1252	16.7	11
2018	Ole Miss	SEC	JR	WR	12	85	1320	15.5	6	0	0		0	85	1320	15.5	6

 

Metcalf

						Receiving				Rushing				Scrimmage
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
Career	Ole Miss					67	1228	18.3	14	0	0		0	67	1228
2016	Ole Miss	SEC	FR	WR	2	2	13	6.5	2	0	0		0	2	13	6.5	2
2017	Ole Miss	SEC	FR	WR	12	39	646	16.6	7	0	0		0	39	646	16.6	7
2018	Ole Miss	SEC	SO	WR	7	26	569	21.9	5	0	0		0	26	569	21.9	5

 

Not really comparable situations at all. 

[Paradis]

There’s other angles to that argument though, there’s a handful of 5’10 slot receivers from smaller programs who might crush Metcalf and Brow’s numbers. Does that mean they’re better than them?

 I don’t really give a flying fck about Metcalf’s production at ole miss, other then does the film suggest he can make the transition against NFL corners running NFL routes 

[maury77]

2 hours ago, King P said:

Brown has been better than Metcalf.

But Jarvis Landry was also the better receiver between him and Odell Beckham at LSU.

So being better in college does not always translate to being better in the pros

I really liked Odell coming out and, frankly, I thought his LSU tape was better than Metcalf's Ole Miss tape. That being said, Odell's LSU tape didn't indicate he would turn into what he has become. I thought Odell was going to be a Laverneous Coles type receiver. 

[bealeb319]

There’s other angles to that argument though, there’s a handful of 5’10 slot receivers from smaller programs who might crush Metcalf and Brow’s numbers. Does that mean they’re better than them?
 I don’t really give a flying fck about Metcalf’s production at ole miss, other then does the film suggest he can make the transition against NFL corners running NFL routes 

Going off the video above I draft greedy Williams over metcalf without thinking twice. Williams looked sharp metcalf looked lazy imo

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[Paradis]

27 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

Going off the video above I draft greedy Williams over metcalf without thinking twice. Williams looked sharp metcalf looked lazy imo

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

For the record I'm not advocating one way or another, yet. There's enough Metcalf push back to warrant a second look.

In general though, college production used as a capital measure of NFL success is a incredibly flawed approach. 

[bealeb319]

For the record I'm not advocating one way or another, yet. There's enough Metcalf push back to warrant a second look.
In general though, college production used as a capital measure of NFL success is a incredibly flawed approach. 

If you don't judge a player by their production are you drafting based off intangibles? Their names? Their appearance? You can see more than production in the film anyway you can see attitude and tendencies. Metclalf to me looks like he could have tendencies of being lazy or sluggish. Williams looks like he is a full effort guy who looks like he plays with emotion. I could picture Williams and Adams becoming a fun db tandum to watch. Could be completely wrong in this and metcalf could become the next Calvin Johnson but I don't think I will be.

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[Paradis]

Just now, bealeb319 said:

If you don't judge a player by their production are you drafting based off intangibles? Their names? Their appearance? You can see more than production in the film anyway you can see attitude and tendencies. Metclalf to me looks like he could have tendencies of being lazy or sluggish. Williams looks like he is a full effort guy who looks like he plays with emotion. I could picture Williams and Adams becoming a fun db tandum to watch. Could be completely wrong in this and metcalf could become the next Calvin Johnson but I don't think I will be.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Colt Brennan crushed NCAA records and a mountain of trim at Hawaii... couldn't do jack in the NFL. That's what i mean when i say using production as the at the primary determinant - can blow up in your face. 

Greedy is OK, but i'm a bigger fan of Murphy and JoeJuan Williams -- who's about to be a round 1 name. 

[bealeb319]

Colt Brennan crushed NCAA records and a mountain of trim at Hawaii... couldn't do jack in the NFL. That's what i mean when i say using production as the at the primary determinant - can blow up in your face. 
Greedy is OK, but i'm a bigger fan of Murphy and JoeJuan Williams -- who's about to be a round 1 name. 

It is almost the time of year the boards really start getting shaken up. There will always be players who do great in college than fail coming into the NFL. It is hard to say what a 20 year old kid who has never really had anything of his own will do with a million dollar paycheck some of them just give up once they have made it, some struggle with drug addictions and so on. I like metcalf I just dont like him as our first round prospect. He looks the part but my fear is that what he lacks is either speed or heart.

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[Philc1]

On 2/12/2019 at 11:51 AM, JiF said:

Gholston was much more productive in college than Metcalf...and healthy.

Again, I have no clue why this board is so obsessed with Metcalf.  He spent his entire career running 2 routes and not very well, I might add.

 

 

Holy Stephen Hill Batman

[Paradis]

51 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

It is almost the time of year the boards really start getting shaken up. There will always be players who do great in college than fail coming into the NFL. It is hard to say what a 20 year old kid who has never really had anything of his own will do with a million dollar paycheck some of them just give up once they have made it, some struggle with drug addictions and so on. I like metcalf I just dont like him as our first round prospect. He looks the part but my fear is that what he lacks is either speed or heart.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Of course, i'm not trying to be difficult.

Like if some dude has been a dud in college, why would we waste time on him in the pros. 

[JustInFudge]

14 hours ago, Paradis said:

For the record I'm not advocating one way or another, yet. There's enough Metcalf push back to warrant a second look.

In general though, college production used as a capital measure of NFL success is a incredibly flawed approach. 

In this scenario, it's not the capital measurement.  It's in addition to the fact he's not very good.  In general, I agree with your take but when you have a comparative analysis on the same team during the exact same time frame, I think production is much more relevant in terms of the analysis, especially when the gap is so extreme. And the bigger issue here is, it's not just AJ Brown that out produced Metcalf in college, he's been #4 in terms of receptions every year.

He's just a big dude who runs fast, there's not a whole lot more to like. 

[derp]

Raw college production doesn't matter a lot because scheme comparability, supporting cast, etc are challenging. There are exceptions but college market share can be telling as well as production by age (which was a red flag for Kevin White for example). Guys who put up big market share numbers at younger ages (actual age not college class) tend to have a better chance of NFL success.

With Metcalf the concern isn't that he's not producing, but that he's got another teammate who was significantly more productive at the same position.

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

In this scenario, it's not the capital measurement.  It's in addition to the fact he's not very good.  In general, I agree with your take but when you have a comparative analysis on the same team during the exact same time frame, I think production is much more relevant in terms of the analysis, especially when the gap is so extreme. And the bigger issue here is, it's not just AJ Brown that out produced Metcalf in college, he's been #4 in terms of receptions every year.

He's just a big dude who runs fast, there's not a whole lot more to like. 

Good points, good points...

there’s enough smoke to warrant a cautious probing here of the whys and hows... but you’re not honoring the stuff that is working and could come of developed Metcalf. He’s not just another gangster with speed IMO, but I’ll stop short of including him in the group of WRs I think would put my job on the line for (Hurd, Ridley, Brown, Doss)

[maury77]

There is some good dialogue going on in this thread.