Jump to content

Analyst on YouTube has Zach Wilson above Trevor Lawrence


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 151
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

"Man living in mom's basement bullish on DeLorean, bearish on Tesla."

“Analyst on YouTube” is very America 2021

The internet was a mistake

Posted Images

18 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

Here is Zack against Coastal Clips...

I like Wilson but no way would he have played great behind the line we had....

 

Every time I see that photo he looks like a HS girl soccer player 

  • Upvote 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Turns out most young QBs have some difficulty processing the field. It's almost as if they're... young QBs *gasp*
I think the reason why this scares most Jets fans is the Jets have never actually developed a QB successfully. We need our guy to be prime Peyton Manning coming out of college otherwise he'll probably fail here.

I’m choosing to believe that this new coaching staff just may be able to do it.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bronx said:

Guess what dude, I watched the video and didn't subscribe.

That little "Subscribe" speech that he gave at the beginning was a real disincentive to subscribe.  Or to watch the video.  Which I didn't.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Charlie Brown said:

Here is Zack against Coastal Clips...

I like Wilson but no way would he have played great behind the line we had....

 

No one could. Kind of shows you why we ruined Sam. Immediately makes me think can we fix Sam?

Lots of mechanical issues in this game for Wilson. Sloppyness. Theres a play that no one is within 10 yards and he's throwing off his back foot. When his mechanics are on its a beautiful thing. 

Development is def going to be needed but these guys are drafted solely for their upside. Wilson got smashed this game often and at the end of the game still came 2 yards away from the game winner. I would think a scout will watch this tape and think his few issues are very fixable and easy to work with but the tools/upside are def there on a bunch of plays. 

For ex. 

Quote

Of course, the overwhelming narrative dump was focused on star quarterback Zach Wilson. Tied for the most touchdowns in the country headed into the evening, Wilson finished the night with just one score, prompting a storm of outrage suggesting he is an overrated player. While that may be fair to glean from the box score, it’s hard to watch back the broadcast and come away thinking Wilson was a problem, let alone the problem. 

Let’s break down all of Wilson’s incompletions, for starters. Wilson finished 19-of-30 in the box score, leaving 11 incompletions. One of them was on a hail mary before the half. Another was on a rightful throwaway while backed up in his own territory. Two were random flips to the running back on a scramble, both plays in which Wilson’s other “best” option was just a throwaway anyway. In two other instances, Wilson was charted with an “accurate” pass, but the wide receiver lost at the catch point after getting two hands on it. One more pass was just a straight up drop by the receiver. 

That only really leaves four of 30 throws where Wilson just outright missed. For the sake of fairness, let’s look at one of Wilson’s other incompletions and why it went wrong for him. 

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/qb-klassroom/qb-klassroom-byu-qb-zach-wilson-vs-ccu

  • Post of the Week 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
So we get see only Wilson's GOOD games and none of his poorer performing efforts. 
For me it is very very difficult, you just can't fully judge anyone that way especially as when here Fields has played in far better competition than Wilson.
I really hope that you do the breakdown!
 


Yeah, it's kinda hard because right now I don't trust any national media guys, because teams have no incentive to actually leak what they are thinking. Unfortunately, the amateur media guys don't have access, so it's a limited session with Wilson. I can find tapes for Fields and Lawrence, but nothing for Wilson.

It's nearly impossible to make a comparison because you can't really read the defense without the All-22 film for a QB. WR/RB, you can piece it together, but the QB is too hard.

Hoping a couple of his games show up with All-22.

I think the hard part is not only are we looking at Fields vs. Wilson, we're looking at Fields vs. Wilson in a Covid season. Fields struggled partially against NW because part of the team was hurt by Covid. We had people skipping the season, even in the NFL. How prepared are the mountain west conference kids, where 99% of the kids are going professional in something other than sports? How much does that impact the game if there are non professional kids that aren't fully there?

If we take statistics, why not compare Fields last year to Wilson this year?
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, win4ever said:

 


Yeah, it's kinda hard because right now I don't trust any national media guys, because teams have no incentive to actually leak what they are thinking. Unfortunately, the amateur media guys don't have access, so it's a limited session with Wilson. I can find tapes for Fields and Lawrence, but nothing for Wilson.

It's nearly impossible to make a comparison because you can't really read the defense without the All-22 film for a QB. WR/RB, you can piece it together, but the QB is too hard.

Hoping a couple of his games show up with All-22.

I think the hard part is not only are we looking at Fields vs. Wilson, we're looking at Fields vs. Wilson in a Covid season. Fields struggled partially against NW because part of the team was hurt by Covid. We had people skipping the season, even in the NFL. How prepared are the mountain west conference kids, where 99% of the kids are going professional in something other than sports? How much does that impact the game if there are non professional kids that aren't fully there?

If we take statistics, why not compare Fields last year to Wilson this year?

 

The QB position has always been the most difficult one to project. Fields and Lawrence being the top ranked recruits in high school and actually living up to the hype is incredibly rare. 
 

Yes, Fields, Lawrence, and Jones played tougher competition. They also played on teams loaded with the best talent in the country. 
 

If you follow college football recruiting you’d know that those three schools (Clemson, Bama, and OSU) have been on a totally different level from a recruiting standpoint than the rest of the country.

Part of Tua’s struggles this year involved what some people call “Alabama Syndrome”. Recognizing the difference between NFL open and College open. There aren’t going to be guys with 5+ yards of separation in the league. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Wilson has a real chance to be a great QB but Lawrence is ready to start right out of school whereas I think Wilson would benefit from sitting a year ... I'd like to see a situation like the way the Giants handled Eli , having him sit behind Warner until later in the season , then turning over the reigns .
Jets should sign a solid vet to show the kid how to prepare during the week and lead by example , and let the Wilson adjust to the speed of the game both in practice and from the sidelines... not sure Flacco is that guy, though .
 Beathard or Mullens might be good options since they know the system but I'm not sure of their contract situation ... maybe we can swing a deal with one being included in a Darnold trade along with a pick ?

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, win4ever said:

Yeah, I've watched his analysis before, pretty knowledgeable. The issue that he mentioned is that it's nearly impossible to get All22 tape for Wilson. He didn't get to see Coastal Carolina or some other ones with him because he just can't get his hands on it.

I want to do a Fields/Wilson breakdown, but I can't find All22 for Wilson at all.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

So homeboy made some type of conclusion without seeing the whole body of work for all the players he's ranking?  lol

Glad I didnt waste my time.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I watched Tim Jenkins' video on Justin Fields and, frankly, he's pretty bad at analysis. 

Start at 17:25. He knocks Fields for allegedly missing a sight adjustment while also admitting he didn't know if a sight adjustment was available. He then dings Fields for the Ohio State offense not having a sight adjustment available there. Priceless. 

If you want to watch good analysts for the QB position, visit these guys:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGfxHp2yuimtLsFaq1r7aIQ

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8xxp39xwuTxOpcaC5xo7fw

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I watched Tim Jenkins' video on Justin Fields and, frankly, he's pretty bad at analysis. 

Start at 17:25. He knocks Fields for allegedly missing a sight adjustment while also admitting he didn't know if a sight adjustment was available. He then dings Fields for the Ohio State offense not having a sight adjustment available there. Priceless. 

If you want to watch good analysts for the QB position, visit these guys:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGfxHp2yuimtLsFaq1r7aIQ

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8xxp39xwuTxOpcaC5xo7fw

 

Eh. I took it as he was dinging Fields for possibly not having familiarity with sight adjustments. Either way guys like this are a part of a fan puzzle that is simultaneously annoying and entertaining because let’s be honest if he could actually pick QBs he’d be the most sought the after GM in the world. 

At the end of his Trevor Lawrence video he says that he thinks Mac Jones might be better than TL and that Fields might be better than Jones so therefore Fields might be better than TL, not much conviction there. In the end I think there’s just no doubt the Jets should take a QB at 2. It really doesn’t matter which one because all 3 top guys and the 2 guys behind them have a good case to be the pick.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

There's an old stock scam where someone would send out 10,000 emails touting a stock to either go up or down.  Half in each direction.

Then a week later, they would take the half that they were right with and send out 5,000 emails touting a different stock to go either up or down (half to each).

Then a week later they would repeat the cycle a third time with a new stock.

At the end of this exercise, they had 1,250 email address to whom they had 'predicted' three straight moves correctly. That's when they moved in for the kill.

This is a lot like that.  Only these guys just simply throw out dozens of predictions, most of which completely contradict each other, in hopes that they can point to the one where they were most 'right' later on and brag about their prognosticating skills.

Honestly, unless they have a real background and real reputation to put on the line (like ex NFL-QBs who are paid analysts), you can probably assume they are playing this game.  Lots of guys trying to guess which bandwagon to jump on early enough so they can be the next Mel Kiper.  That's a solid career plan for you.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, nycdan said:

There's an old stock scam where someone would send out 10,000 emails touting a stock to either go up or down.  Half in each direction.

Then a week later, they would take the half that they were right with and send out 5,000 emails touting a different stock to go either up or down (half to each).

Then a week later they would repeat the cycle a third time with a new stock.

At the end of this exercise, they had 1,250 email address to whom they had 'predicted' three straight moves correctly. That's when they moved in for the kill.

This is a lot like that.  Only these guys just simply throw out dozens of predictions, most of which completely contradict each other, in hopes that they can point to the one where they were most 'right' later on and brag about their prognosticating skills.

Honestly, unless they have a real background and real reputation to put on the line (like ex NFL-QBs who are paid analysts), you can probably assume they are playing this game.  Lots of guys trying to guess which bandwagon to jump on early enough so they can be the next Mel Kiper.  That's a solid career plan for you.

Meh.  This guy in question was in the NFL, the CFL and has worked with QBs that were in the XFL and are currently rostered. He also made a judgement with video and isn’t banging out mocks every week like those “paid analysts.” Other guys online have built followings by providing insightful content rather than volume mocks. QB evaluation is hard. Maury77 and I have both watched Zach Wilson and have vastly different takeaways on the same videos.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nycdan said:

Honestly, unless they have a real background and real reputation to put on the line (like ex NFL-QBs who are paid analysts), you can probably assume they are playing this game.  Lots of guys trying to guess which bandwagon to jump on early enough so they can be the next Mel Kiper.  That's a solid career plan for you.

Side note - I liked your story. 

It just seems to me that Fields fans only response to seeing opinions on Fields that doesn't fit their narrative is to attack the source. 

For example Derek Klassen had a positive post about Fields that all Fields Fans loved. However I will sooner then later make a topic about why I believe Justin Fields will bust and I will cite the below content from that very same author and I guarantee the majority of the comments will just be attacking Klassen. 

Quote

The indecisiveness was arguably the biggest issue on Saturday. Fields has always shown some moments of being a tick slow in his process, which we will get to, but he’s almost always done well to pull the trigger on the right target. On multiple occasions against Northwestern, Fields just refused to throw passes that, by all indication, were as open as those passing concepts were going to get. 

 

Northwestern start in a two-high safety shell before the snap, but spin to a one-high shell with the boundary safety rolling down to play a hook zone. This should not be much more than a standard Cover 3 read as soon as Fields sees the field safety bail to the middle of the field. As Fields reaches the top of his three-step drop, he settles up before appearing to slightly move his arm to throw to the hitch on the outside. He absolutely should throw at the top of his drop right there against Cover 3. He knows it, too. The cornerback is bailing and the only other “threat” is the flat defender, who has to cover an outrageous amount of ground because he’s playing the field on college hash marks. Alas, Fields turns away for whatever reason, tries to work back side, and throws a mediocre ball that gets dropped. 

One could argue that this play should end in a completion anyway. Fields delivered a good enough ball to his target. While that’s true, Fields did not pull the trigger on a fairly basic read / throw earlier in the down, so his process was flawed even if the result could, and should have, still been a completion. There is no reason for a perceived top-10 pick to shy away from this throw. 

 

This non-throw is just as egregious. On this play, Ohio State are running their boundary tight end into the field on a shallow crosser. Whether “Mesh” or “Drive” or any other concept with a shallow, that shallow runner is allowed to “throttle down” near the edge of the far tackle box, if the defense is in zone coverage. That’s exactly what happens here. Northwestern’s flat defender to the field gets wide and vertical to help squeeze the outside receiver’s route a bit, which should signal to Fields right away that he can throw the shallow runner who is going to settle. It’s 1st-and-10 near the red zone, there is zero reason to not take the free yards. 

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/qb-klassroom/qbklassroom-ohio-state-qb-justin-fields-vs-nw

Fields is accurate and played with a great Oline which is going to fool many people. Its these stretches above that give you a hint of how he is going to play against NFL when his oline is average and he is confused by defenses. 

When Fields fans really have no come back for why he has these issues with progressions the only answer is attacking the source. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
The QB position has always been the most difficult one to project. Fields and Lawrence being the top ranked recruits in high school and actually living up to the hype is incredibly rare. 
 
Yes, Fields, Lawrence, and Jones played tougher competition. They also played on teams loaded with the best talent in the country. 
 
If you follow college football recruiting you’d know that those three schools (Clemson, Bama, and OSU) have been on a totally different level from a recruiting standpoint than the rest of the country.
Part of Tua’s struggles this year involved what some people call “Alabama Syndrome”. Recognizing the difference between NFL open and College open. There aren’t going to be guys with 5+ yards of separation in the league. 


I think the issue with Tua (and to an extent Mac Jones) is that their surrounding cast superceded anything the defense could throw out there. I remember watching Juedy film last year, and pretty much everyone was open. I don't remember a team THAT stacked at the skill positions.

4 WRs that are guaranteed first Rd picks, 2 Tackles in the first round (at least), Probably the first RB in the draft, and a talented TE. It was part of the reason I wasn't as bothered the Dolphins picked him high because his skill set didn't warrant the hype.

I completely understand we have to downgrade some of these games. I don't even bother watching OSU/Rutgers tape or Clemson/Citadel, because it's just not fair. I usually like to see film of bigger programs to see better matchups.

For example, I love breaking down OSU/Clemson games, Clemson/ND, Clemson/LSU, OSU/Alabama, etc.

You want to see them matched up a bit, albeit Alabama is just on another level on offense.
Link to post
Share on other sites
So homeboy made some type of conclusion without seeing the whole body of work for all the players he's ranking?  lol
Glad I didnt waste my time.


He's only got limited tape, so I wouldn't really put much credence to his rankings. I'd just watch the film and breakdown, see what's up because I can't even get those tapes.

This is also something that warrants to be said. If you are starting a new channel or series, it only matters if you make a borderline bold prediction. I could have guaranteed you the answer to his question "Is Trevor Lawrence QB1?" was going to be no, as soon as he mentioned getting subscribers. You don't get initial subscribers going with the consensus, you take the opposite opinion and you rope in the folks that hold that opinion because their thirst for people agreeing with their viewpoints is greater than the casual fan.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there's a "Kyle Trask, boy I reaaaaaallly love his tape" video coming.

Remember Brett Kollman? He made that video about Hackenberg being a franchise guy. What happened when we drafted him? Pretty much every fan we had watched those videos, and bought in somewhat to the hope. He gained subscribers from the video. Did it matter he was wrong? Nope, because once you subscribe, all you have to do is produce enough quality content that you don't unsubscribe.

Same thing with this. Whoever drafts Wilson (be it us or some other team) and right afterwards, fanboards will be flooded with "Look at this, former QB thinks Wilson is No.1" posts that can't be disproved for at least 1-2 years. By then he has more content, "learned from his scouting mistakes", and moves on.

I like the guy for his analysis, mainly because I watch these breakdowns to learn what to look for. I don't buy into the conclusions because there is a vested interest to stand against the crowd because that's what sells.
  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/qb-klassroom/qbklassroom-ohio-state-qb-justin-fields-vs-nw
Fields is accurate and played with a great Oline which is going to fool many people. Its these stretches above that give you a hint of how he is going to play against NFL when his oline is average and he is confused by defenses. 
When Fields fans really have no come back for why he has these issues with progressions the only answer is attacking the source. 


I think I linked that one in the Fields thread too. I like Fields over Wilson quite easily, but that NW game was rough.

I think all of them played with great OL in comparison to their competition, so in my eyes, I'm really looking for athletic ability, accuracy, arm capability, and some semblance of being able to read defenses.

I think Fields does that better than Wilson by a fair margin, but in no way am I infallible.

I think with the draft, we all have our opinions until we draft someone, and then like always, we'll try to buy into whoever we draft because that's basically fandom. That's why a GM like Mccagnan sucks because so many people here could have done a better job.
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Shockwave said:

Side note - I liked your story. 

It just seems to me that Fields fans only response to seeing opinions on Fields that doesn't fit their narrative is to attack the source. 

For example Derek Klassen had a positive post about Fields that all Fields Fans loved. However I will sooner then later make a topic about why I believe Justin Fields will bust and I will cite the below content from that very same author and I guarantee the majority of the comments will just be attacking Klassen. 

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/qb-klassroom/qbklassroom-ohio-state-qb-justin-fields-vs-nw

Fields is accurate and played with a great Oline which is going to fool many people. Its these stretches above that give you a hint of how he is going to play against NFL when his oline is average and he is confused by defenses. 

When Fields fans really have no come back for why he has these issues with progressions the only answer is attacking the source. 

I'm not sure you are interpreting my position the same way I see it.  I'm not a fan-boy of Fields.  I see his risks.  I just see him as a better prospect than Wilson where others see the opposite.  I think there are very few, if any, people that are projecting Fields to be a likely HoF QB.  I do think there are some here, who are over the top cow-eyed for Wilson but many just see more in him than I do, which is fine.

Personally, my choices are Watson, if possible, Trevor (not possible), then possibly Sam plus a bounty of picks.  Then Fields, then Wilson.

Not at all sure I'm right about any of that.  But that doesn't change the fact that there are writers/'analysts' out there writing multiple pieces spinning every permutation so they can point to one and say they were right.  This isn't about anyone on this board.  It's the army of others out there generating click-bait trash like the one that has us trading three first, one 2nd and Sam to end up with...Russell Wilson.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, win4ever said:

I think I linked that one in the Fields thread too. I like Fields over Wilson quite easily, but that NW game was rough.

I think all of them played with great OL in comparison to their competition, so in my eyes, I'm really looking for athletic ability, accuracy, arm capability, and some semblance of being able to read defenses.

I think Fields does that better than Wilson by a fair margin, but in no way am I infallible.

I think with the draft, we all have our opinions until we draft someone, and then like always, we'll try to buy into whoever we draft because that's basically fandom. That's why a GM like Mccagnan sucks because so many people here could have done a better job.

 

Fairest response in any thread I've seen about Fields. 

What are your thoughts on the processing and progression critique on Fields. We have the Klassen clips above but one could just say its a bad few games. The numbers below show a bigger picture going back to last year for this issue. 

 

Quote

With no blitz this season, Wilson’s average time to throw is 2.85 seconds (246 dropbacks) and Fields’ is 3.07 seconds (107 dropbacks). When blitzed, Wilson’s average time to throw predictably drops to 2.74 seconds (119 dropbacks) and Fields' somehow increases to 3.21 seconds (103 dropbacks). That’s an eternity — and it's not exactly what you want to see from a top quarterback prospect.

Fields is afforded a great deal of leeway with the Ohio State offensive line, his mobility and the talented receiving corps, but that’s not going to fly at the next level. The highest average time to throw of any NFL quarterback all season against the blitz is Josh Allen at 2.80 seconds. Fields simply has to speed up.

Advantage: Wilson

POCKET PRESENCE

It’s important to note that Fields and Wilson have played behind elite offensive lines in their career. There’s no Daniel Jones at Duke situation here, as each of Fields and Wilson was throwing out of cavernous pockets more often than not. Wilson has been under pressure 22.2% of the time this season, and Fields has seen pressure on 29.9% of the time.

While both are terrific at maneuvering the pocket when faced with pressure, Fields’ lethargic decision making also translates to him bringing undue pressure onto himself. On 227 dropbacks in six games, Fields himself has been charged with 16 pressures and five sacks. Wilson is no angel with his propensity to hold the ball, either, but he’s been charged with only 10 pressures — including five sacks — on 389 dropbacks. 

Even when things were arguably going better for Fields in 2019, this was an issue. He was charged with 11 sacks on 457 dropbacks. Meanwhile, Fields has converted pressure to sacks 24.1% of the time over the past two seasons. That figure is 16.8% for Wilson. Even though that's not a massive gap, the concerning trend is that Fields’ figure in 2020 alone is 28.6% while Wilson’s is 12.3%. Fields stagnating in this regard as Wilson continues to show improvement makes this an easy choice.

Advantage: Wilson

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-byu-zach-wilson-ohio-state-justin-fields-qb2-college-football

My concern is one would assume these numbers will get worse in the NFL as his Oline won't be as good and hell face NFL D's. He would be behind 2019 Josh Allen in this regard (32 in NFL) so he really can't afford to get worse). Love everything else about Fields (Accuracy, Makeup, Athleticism). I can live with the hitch if need be. 

Please note - While I believe Wilson goes 2 I am not in some love affair there and I have certainly see multiple red flags there. I would absolutely be fine trading down. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nycdan said:

I'm not sure you are interpreting my position the same way I see it.  I'm not a fan-boy of Fields.  I see his risks.  I just see him as a better prospect than Wilson where others see the opposite.  I think there are very few, if any, people that are projecting Fields to be a likely HoF QB.  I do think there are some here, who are over the top cow-eyed for Wilson but many just see more in him than I do, which is fine.

Personally, my choices are Watson, if possible, Trevor (not possible), then possibly Sam plus a bounty of picks.  Then Fields, then Wilson.

Not at all sure I'm right about any of that.  But that doesn't change the fact that there are writers/'analysts' out there writing multiple pieces spinning every permutation so they can point to one and say they were right.  This isn't about anyone on this board.  It's the army of others out there generating click-bait trash like the one that has us trading three first, one 2nd and Sam to end up with...Russell Wilson.  

Agreed on 99% of this with the slight variation of Wilson/Fields. if for some reason Wilson's MRI is problematic or another red flag is raised that could certainly change. 

Love the bolded. Exactly the way I see it. 

Also interesting take up top about Fields upside. I am not sure you take a QB top 2 if you don't see top 10 NFL upside.  I don't see that upside for Fields. But I guess thats why we both have him as the 4th or 5th best options for the Jets. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Fairest response in any thread I've seen about Fields. 

What are your thoughts on the processing and progression critique on Fields. We have the Klassen clips above but one could just say its a bad few games. The numbers below show a bigger picture going back to last year for this issue. 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-byu-zach-wilson-ohio-state-justin-fields-qb2-college-football

My concern is one would assume these numbers will get worse in the NFL as his Oline won't be as good and hell face NFL D's. He would be behind 2019 Josh Allen in this regard (32 in NFL) so he really can't afford to get worse). Love everything else about Fields (Accuracy, Makeup, Athleticism). I can live with the hitch if need be. 

Please note - While I believe Wilson goes 2 I am not in some love affair there and I have certainly see multiple red flags there. I would absolutely be fine trading down. 

 

 

I think the processing issue is mainly dealing with the route set up for OSU because I feel they are setting up the deep shot, over and over again.  I don't see the quick bail out passes that you see out of pressure.  For guys like Lawrence/Wilson/Trask, I feel like if there is pressure, the read is to throw the quick screen/outlet pass because it's betting on them being open if the defense comes through with a blitz.  However, OSU seems more inclined to push the ball down the field, basically moving the linebackers back enough that the path takes too long to blitz.  We see OSU running backs go through power running styles with open lanes because those linebackers have to play further back.  For someone like Clemson, the RB is more horizontal because they stretch them out, so we think of them as outside rushers because that's the weakness of the defense against them.  

I think the lack of those quick outlet passes (and I'm not saying they don't exist, just not nearly as much) means he has to hold onto the ball longer, for plays to develop.  I'm thinking they view his scrambling ability as the horizontal stretch, rather than having running backs out there.  I don't know how prevalent it is, but I've noticed a few decoy routes down the field by their receivers.  You'll see them run a route and then somewhat slow down to draw in the defense.  

Anyway, I think the process of holding onto the ball longer is both good and bad.

Bad:  He obviously has to hold onto the ball, leads to more sacks, more hits.  It also has a tendency to develop a sense of too much assurance in the pocket, where you just don't feel pressure.  Honestly, I think this is an issue with guys like Watson/Wilson/Roethlesberger as well where their ability to evade sacks means they wait it out more, leading to more sacks.  We saw this with Mahomes in the SB, once he was pressured more than usual, he started to have issues.  

Good:  It's a good tool to prevent the exact issue that Darnold/Geno had, which is essentially feeling too much pressure in a relatively clean pocket.  I like the fact that he doesn't just get the ball out at the first sign of trouble, but rather looks to extend the play, either by stepping up, or scrambling before finding a lane.  I think it's a good value to have, because the more you extend the play, more likely one of your guys gets open.  We see this often with Wilson, where he's dead to ripe, and then makes one guy miss and it all falls apart for the defense.  

As a quality for the NFL, I like that he doesn't panic with a blitz, and has ability to extend plays.  I do think it's concerning that it leads to more sacks, but that somewhat comes with the territory.  

I don't think Fields is perfect, nor do I think Lawrence is perfect.  For all we know, some random guy like Jamie Newman surprising folks.  I think some of the issues we see with Fields can be fixed, like the hitch (I believe Sam had an elongated release that he fixed) and every young QB needs to learn how to make proper reads.  I like Fields over Wilson, because I think his talent translates to the NFL better.  

Arm:  Wilson has a better arm, but Fields has a very good arm as well

Accuracy:  I think they are both accurate

Mobility:  I think Fields is much more mobile

Competition:  I think Fields has proven himself against better competition

I also think his skill set fits into the NFL better because a throw 50 yards down the field happens about 3-4 times a game at most.  However, the ability to throw accurately in the intermediate zone, while being a threat to run creates major issues for the defense.  We see someone one like Watson, who had an average arm by most accounts play at a high level because he can escape the pocket and extend plays, which can alleviate some of the OL issues.  

  • Upvote 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, win4ever said:

I think the processing issue is mainly dealing with the route set up for OSU because I feel they are setting up the deep shot, over and over again.  I don't see the quick bail out passes that you see out of pressure.  For guys like Lawrence/Wilson/Trask, I feel like if there is pressure, the read is to throw the quick screen/outlet pass because it's betting on them being open if the defense comes through with a blitz.  However, OSU seems more inclined to push the ball down the field, basically moving the linebackers back enough that the path takes too long to blitz.  We see OSU running backs go through power running styles with open lanes because those linebackers have to play further back.  For someone like Clemson, the RB is more horizontal because they stretch them out, so we think of them as outside rushers because that's the weakness of the defense against them.  

I think the lack of those quick outlet passes (and I'm not saying they don't exist, just not nearly as much) means he has to hold onto the ball longer, for plays to develop.  I'm thinking they view his scrambling ability as the horizontal stretch, rather than having running backs out there.  I don't know how prevalent it is, but I've noticed a few decoy routes down the field by their receivers.  You'll see them run a route and then somewhat slow down to draw in the defense.  

Anyway, I think the process of holding onto the ball longer is both good and bad.

Bad:  He obviously has to hold onto the ball, leads to more sacks, more hits.  It also has a tendency to develop a sense of too much assurance in the pocket, where you just don't feel pressure.  Honestly, I think this is an issue with guys like Watson/Wilson/Roethlesberger as well where their ability to evade sacks means they wait it out more, leading to more sacks.  We saw this with Mahomes in the SB, once he was pressured more than usual, he started to have issues.  

Good:  It's a good tool to prevent the exact issue that Darnold/Geno had, which is essentially feeling too much pressure in a relatively clean pocket.  I like the fact that he doesn't just get the ball out at the first sign of trouble, but rather looks to extend the play, either by stepping up, or scrambling before finding a lane.  I think it's a good value to have, because the more you extend the play, more likely one of your guys gets open.  We see this often with Wilson, where he's dead to ripe, and then makes one guy miss and it all falls apart for the defense.  

As a quality for the NFL, I like that he doesn't panic with a blitz, and has ability to extend plays.  I do think it's concerning that it leads to more sacks, but that somewhat comes with the territory.  

I don't think Fields is perfect, nor do I think Lawrence is perfect.  For all we know, some random guy like Jamie Newman surprising folks.  I think some of the issues we see with Fields can be fixed, like the hitch (I believe Sam had an elongated release that he fixed) and every young QB needs to learn how to make proper reads.  I like Fields over Wilson, because I think his talent translates to the NFL better.  

Arm:  Wilson has a better arm, but Fields has a very good arm as well

Accuracy:  I think they are both accurate

Mobility:  I think Fields is much more mobile

Competition:  I think Fields has proven himself against better competition

I also think his skill set fits into the NFL better because a throw 50 yards down the field happens about 3-4 times a game at most.  However, the ability to throw accurately in the intermediate zone, while being a threat to run creates major issues for the defense.  We see someone one like Watson, who had an average arm by most accounts play at a high level because he can escape the pocket and extend plays, which can alleviate some of the OL issues.  


giphy.gif


Killer breakdown. Kinda blew my mind alittle. I think at the very least I need to rewatch some of Fields and keep an open mind with what you said about Ohio States scheme and how this could be a good thing.

Pretty crazy that 99 percent of the talk of Fields/Wilson turns into flame city on the main board and first post over here and you get this gem. Thanks and would be a great blog post if you went into it further as it prob will be talked about frequently.

Do you have any concerns about ohio state QB’s? He is not Haskins but some will be concerned.
 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Shockwave said:


giphy.gif


Killer breakdown. Kinda blew my mind alittle. I think at the very least I need to rewatch some of Fields and keep an open mind with what you said about Ohio States scheme and how this could be a good thing.

Pretty crazy that 99 percent of the talk of Fields/Wilson turns into flame city on the main board and first post over here and you get this gem. Thanks and would be a great blog post if you went into it further as it prob will be talked about frequently.

Do you have any concerns about ohio state QB’s? He is not Haskins but some will be concerned.
 

 

 

 

Thanks.  By no means am I expert, so I could be completely wrong lol.  I really want to, but I can't find any All-22 film of Wilson.  I'm going to see if it's available somewhere as we get closer to the draft.  

 

This is Haskins vs. Michigan 2 years ago.  Forget his throws and what not, but look at the no read options he has on most plays.  Look at how many mesh concepts are within 3-4 yards of the line of scrimmage.   By Yards I mean location of route in relation to Line of scrimmage.  He doesn't always pick this, but I wanted to show the outlets available.  

0:10 - Quick In Route 3 yards

0:20:  Quick Mesh Route 3 yards

0:30:  Quick Screen

0:38: Quick Mesh Route 3 Yards

1:00:  Quick Screen behind LOS

1:08:  First one he doesn't have any quick reads, and it's a bad throw into double coverage

1:16:  He has two options, a quick 1 yard slant, or outlet to RB.  After the incomplete pass, look at the split screen.  The other receivers aren't even trying.  This was simply slant or outlet option situation.  

1:42:  Quick Screen Pass behind LOS

1:55:  I'm going to say no quick options, RB and TE both chip block.  Incomplete

2:02:  Quick Mesh 2 yards from LOS option, overthrows wheel route

2:16:  Quick pass behind LOS

2:25: Quick Curl 2 Yards

2:35:  Quick Outlet option to RB, makes ok throw down the field, dropped

2:45:  Quick crossing route 3 yards

2:54:  Quick WR screen option, throws good TD

3:15:  Quick Mesh Concept 2 yards, runs anyway

3:25:  No quick options, horrible throw

3;31;  I'm not sure wtf this is, but I guess it was set up for quick options.  

3:40: Quick WR screen pass, behind LOS

3:54:  Quick lateral behind LOS

4:02:  No quick option, throws a wide open TD

4:26:  Quick Slot out route 1 Yard

4:33:  Quick Mesh Route. 2 Yard

4:41:  No Quick option, both RB and TE chip and release.  I want to say bad throw but not quite sure.  Incomplete

4:55:  Quick Mesh Option 2 Yards

5:15:  Quick Screen behind Los

5: 39:  Quick Crossing Route

6:00 Quick Crossing Route. 3 Yards

6:10;  Two quick slants on 3rd and 11, 3 yards

6:15:  Quick Crossing Route 2 Yards

6:40:  Quick comeback/reverse route 2 Yards

7:05:  Essentially a hand-off, counts as a pass

7:20:  Quick Outlet to TE

7:30:  Quick Crossing Route 2 Yards

7:45:  Quick out pass.  I don't like putting Goal Line plays because everything is a quick read, why I avoided most so far.  

7:58:  No quick option, TD pass

What I wanted to highlight here was that the OSU system was basically dominated by the mesh concepts and quick outlet passes.  Haskins was basically making one quick read very close to the LOS, and then deciding.  In terms of time to throw and time in pocket, the numbers will be low because there aren't many reads down the field.  Blitzes don't matter because the ball is out before the blitzing LB can run to the QB.  This was also the big issue with most Air-Raid guys like Geno, because you don't actually learn anything in terms of reading the defense.  All you are taught is, read one defender and make a decision.  Once you get to the NFL, reading one guy and making a decision leads to disaster because you won't see the backside guys too often.  We saw this over and over with Geno where he'd lock onto one guy, who may have had a step on his guy, but not realize the other guys on the field watching his eyes.   

I wanted to put Fields vs. Michigan from last year, but it's his first year in the system.  I picked Indiana because it's one of his bad games this year, and they were good on defense.   

 

0:20:  No Quick Option

0:50:  No Quick Option

1:15:  RB delayed release, I'm not sure it's any different than the chip releases from Haskins.  I said no then, so I'll say no here.  INT

1:32:  Quick comeback 3 Yards

1:50:  This is a very interesting play, there's a delayed release by the TE, but other than that, no quick release,  A slant to the inside, but watch this blitz.  They have 6 blockers to 6 defenders, matching the numbers but it's a stunt.  The defense sent blitzers from 10 yards down the line.  This looks like a bad sack, but it's a decent read.  The defense is baiting him to throw that slant, which is exactly where the OLB is running to.  In a one read system, a QB sees the middle vacated and he may throw that slant, but he doesn't here.  I'm not going to say this is some Manning level vision or anything because he should have adjusted faster, but the no throw is a good decision on the slant.  I just don't think anyone expected a blitz from that far back.  

2:02 No Quick Options

2:20:  Quick Come Back, 3 Yards

2:30:  No Quick options, there's a delayed slip screen.  Horrible decision to throw this up, should have ate the sack.  This is another situation where he tries to read the field and runs into a sack (that he made worse into an INT).  It doesn't work, but you can see him try to go through his progressions.  

2:50:  A chip release by TE, but no quick read

2:58:  A quick release by TE, but notice the OLB again.  He sees him at the last second and eats the sack.  You can see Fields get ready to throw and reconsider because that OLB is about to step right into that throwing lane.  

3:07:  No Quick Options

3:20:  Quick RB Screen Option behind LOS

3:38:  No Quick Options

3:50:  Quick Slant Options 3 Yards - Takes the longer play

4:02:  No Quick Options- Look at where this blitz is coming from, basically from the safety position 12 yards down the field.  Nothing quick enough on that side for him, gets out of a sack, but should be sack.  

4:30:  Quick Screen Option 

4:40:  No Quick Options

4:50:  Quick crossing route, 2 Yards

5:04:  No Quick Options

5:15:  No Quick Options

5:30:  Quick WR Screen

5:43:  No Quick Options

5:58:  I think this is just a designed screen pass, no reads

6:10:  No Quick Options

6:20:  Quick crossing option

6:30:  Maybe a quick slant, but inside the 10, so hard to say.  He just runs it, away from sack.  However, watch the bottom of the screen, the quick option is to the quick slant.  But Indiana is ready for this, handing off the slant, and then racing back for the fade.  Once Indiana did the handoff, good no throw.  

7:10:  Basically a handoff that counts as pass

7:25 No Quick Option

7:35:  Quick comeback route

7:42: Quick WR screen, albeit this looks like a designed run anyway

8:02:  No Quick Option, as far as the 10 yard line is concerned

8:23:  No Quick Option:  This is an instance of a bad reaction btw.  Pre-snap, he sees a middle field safety, and his RPO read is to the outside receiver, but the safety went towards the sidelines.  You can see Fields look directly at the receiver coming open, but doesn't pull the trigger.  This is a bad play by him.

8:38:  No Quick Option:  Turns a sack into a horrible INT

9:05:  Quick slants all around, but play breaks down.  The guard and the RB both move to pick up a blitz up the middle, leaving a free tackle (or end) with a direct line to Fields.  Guy gets there before Fields can even set himself.  

9:15:  Quick Curl Outside 5 yards

9:23:  Quick Curl 3 Yards

9:40:  No Quick Option:  This is another case, where the RB just gets trucked, and he doesn't have any options.  All the routes are developing down the field at the point of him needing to escape the pocket.  

9:54:  Quick Crossing Route

10:04:  No Quick Option

10:15:  Quick Crossing Route

10:40:  No Quick Option

10:54:  No Quick Option:  I'm not sure why he didn't throw this ball

11:12:  No Quick Option

11:25:  Not sure there is a quick option, this was basically foiled by the safety.  The play is to No. 2 in the end zone, but the safety doesn't sprint to the right, but hangs up enough to close the intended passing lane.  This was partially what I was talking about in terms of the quality of defense.  I think it'd be likely a safety facing BYU sprints to the outside receiver in his area, leaving the pass to No. 2 open.  Wilson would hit it, much like Fields would have hit it here as well, and stats look better.  I still don't understand how this flip to the TE missed so high.  

Anyway, what I wanted to show was the difference in philosophies between OSU when Haskins was there, and Fields this year.  They entrusted him a lot more to make downfield reads, whereas with Haskins, everything had a simple read option to it.  If for any reason, there was a blitz or issue, he had a quick outlet far more often than Fields.  The offense was basic as far as Haskins was concerned.  

Good/Bad:  

Haskins:  If you look at metrics, Haskins was releasing the ball much quicker than Fields, less time to throw, etc.  He had those quick outlets, which meant he was reading one simple thing at the line, and making a decision.  This is basically the spread system carrying the QB, because defenses just can't match up.   

The bad being that when he gets to the NFL, those quick reads are covered because the defenders are smarter and faster.  Now he has to learn to read progressions beyond the first read, that it's not all a single defender read, but understand the shells.  

Fields:  The metrics make it tough because he's waiting for plays to develop, doesn't have a quick outlet.  What Indiana did in this game is simple, when they knew the quick outlets weren't there, they sent blitzes from anywhere they could.  Essentially betting their guys could get there faster than those routes develop.  Partially, this is what NW copied as well, but had more success because of Olave being out. 

The issue here is that Fields will hold onto the ball a lot longer, and might be trigger shy at times because he's comfortable holding onto the ball.  This leads to a lot of sacks where the protection was decent, and he was just waiting for the route to develop.  The good thing is that he's at least versed in the down field reads, without the safety of a quick option.  Therefore, instead of learning to make more progressive reads, what he needs to learn are hot reads, those quick releases against the blitz.  

Personally, I feel like reading hot throws are easier than learning progression reads, which was why I don't think it's necessarily bad.  

Now, every QB needs to learn progressions at a faster rate in the NFL, it's just a big step up.  And I could be completely wrong, as most people.  When Darnold came out, he was demonstrably better at making reads than Josh Allen.  However, Allen made major strides in the NFL and Darnold regressed, which was completely unpredictable.  So it's all just an educated guess.  

I think OSU system isn't quite the same as the Haskins ones, but more suitable for a transition to the NFL.  Now that's like saying I'm more likely to throw a TD than my toddler, just because it's true doesn't mean it's likely.  You just have to hope that whoever we pick, gets the right coaching and actually develops.  

I don't hate Wilson actually, I think he has some special talent as well.  I think Fields is the safer bet in terms of ceiling/floor but I also don't have access to their mental evaluations or character.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Upvote 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, maury77 said:

I watched Tim Jenkins' video on Justin Fields and, frankly, he's pretty bad at analysis. 

Start at 17:25. He knocks Fields for allegedly missing a sight adjustment while also admitting he didn't know if a sight adjustment was available. He then dings Fields for the Ohio State offense not having a sight adjustment available there. Priceless. 

If you want to watch good analysts for the QB position, visit these guys:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGfxHp2yuimtLsFaq1r7aIQ

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8xxp39xwuTxOpcaC5xo7fw

 

Thanks for the link.  Already knew QB school, but the Schofield one is new to me,

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, win4ever said:

Thanks for the link.  Already knew QB school, but the Schofield one is new to me,

Schofield is really good. Ex college football QB and former attorney who quit his job to do NFL draft analysis. He used to run inside the pylon. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Shockwave said:
6 hours ago, win4ever said:

Thanks.  By no means am I expert, so I could be completely wrong lol.  I really want to, but I can't find any All-22 film of Wilson.  I'm going to see if it's available somewhere as we get closer to the draft.  

 

This is Haskins vs. Michigan 2 years ago.  Forget his throws and what not, but look at the no read options he has on most plays.  Look at how many mesh concepts are within 3-4 yards of the line of scrimmage.   By Yards I mean location of route in relation to Line of scrimmage.  He doesn't always pick this, but I wanted to show the outlets available.  

0:10 - Quick In Route 3 yards

0:20:  Quick Mesh Route 3 yards

0:30:  Quick Screen

0:38: Quick Mesh Route 3 Yards

1:00:  Quick Screen behind LOS

1:08:  First one he doesn't have any quick reads, and it's a bad throw into double coverage

1:16:  He has two options, a quick 1 yard slant, or outlet to RB.  After the incomplete pass, look at the split screen.  The other receivers aren't even trying.  This was simply slant or outlet option situation.  

1:42:  Quick Screen Pass behind LOS

1:55:  I'm going to say no quick options, RB and TE both chip block.  Incomplete

2:02:  Quick Mesh 2 yards from LOS option, overthrows wheel route

2:16:  Quick pass behind LOS

2:25: Quick Curl 2 Yards

2:35:  Quick Outlet option to RB, makes ok throw down the field, dropped

2:45:  Quick crossing route 3 yards

2:54:  Quick WR screen option, throws good TD

3:15:  Quick Mesh Concept 2 yards, runs anyway

3:25:  No quick options, horrible throw

3;31;  I'm not sure wtf this is, but I guess it was set up for quick options.  

3:40: Quick WR screen pass, behind LOS

3:54:  Quick lateral behind LOS

4:02:  No quick option, throws a wide open TD

4:26:  Quick Slot out route 1 Yard

4:33:  Quick Mesh Route. 2 Yard

4:41:  No Quick option, both RB and TE chip and release.  I want to say bad throw but not quite sure.  Incomplete

4:55:  Quick Mesh Option 2 Yards

5:15:  Quick Screen behind Los

5: 39:  Quick Crossing Route

6:00 Quick Crossing Route. 3 Yards

6:10;  Two quick slants on 3rd and 11, 3 yards

6:15:  Quick Crossing Route 2 Yards

6:40:  Quick comeback/reverse route 2 Yards

7:05:  Essentially a hand-off, counts as a pass

7:20:  Quick Outlet to TE

7:30:  Quick Crossing Route 2 Yards

7:45:  Quick out pass.  I don't like putting Goal Line plays because everything is a quick read, why I avoided most so far.  

7:58:  No quick option, TD pass

What I wanted to highlight here was that the OSU system was basically dominated by the mesh concepts and quick outlet passes.  Haskins was basically making one quick read very close to the LOS, and then deciding.  In terms of time to throw and time in pocket, the numbers will be low because there aren't many reads down the field.  Blitzes don't matter because the ball is out before the blitzing LB can run to the QB.  This was also the big issue with most Air-Raid guys like Geno, because you don't actually learn anything in terms of reading the defense.  All you are taught is, read one defender and make a decision.  Once you get to the NFL, reading one guy and making a decision leads to disaster because you won't see the backside guys too often.  We saw this over and over with Geno where he'd lock onto one guy, who may have had a step on his guy, but not realize the other guys on the field watching his eyes.   

I wanted to put Fields vs. Michigan from last year, but it's his first year in the system.  I picked Indiana because it's one of his bad games this year, and they were good on defense.   

 

0:20:  No Quick Option

0:50:  No Quick Option

1:15:  RB delayed release, I'm not sure it's any different than the chip releases from Haskins.  I said no then, so I'll say no here.  INT

1:32:  Quick comeback 3 Yards

1:50:  This is a very interesting play, there's a delayed release by the TE, but other than that, no quick release,  A slant to the inside, but watch this blitz.  They have 6 blockers to 6 defenders, matching the numbers but it's a stunt.  The defense sent blitzers from 10 yards down the line.  This looks like a bad sack, but it's a decent read.  The defense is baiting him to throw that slant, which is exactly where the OLB is running to.  In a one read system, a QB sees the middle vacated and he may throw that slant, but he doesn't here.  I'm not going to say this is some Manning level vision or anything because he should have adjusted faster, but the no throw is a good decision on the slant.  I just don't think anyone expected a blitz from that far back.  

2:02 No Quick Options

2:20:  Quick Come Back, 3 Yards

2:30:  No Quick options, there's a delayed slip screen.  Horrible decision to throw this up, should have ate the sack.  This is another situation where he tries to read the field and runs into a sack (that he made worse into an INT).  It doesn't work, but you can see him try to go through his progressions.  

2:50:  A chip release by TE, but no quick read

2:58:  A quick release by TE, but notice the OLB again.  He sees him at the last second and eats the sack.  You can see Fields get ready to throw and reconsider because that OLB is about to step right into that throwing lane.  

3:07:  No Quick Options

3:20:  Quick RB Screen Option behind LOS

3:38:  No Quick Options

3:50:  Quick Slant Options 3 Yards - Takes the longer play

4:02:  No Quick Options- Look at where this blitz is coming from, basically from the safety position 12 yards down the field.  Nothing quick enough on that side for him, gets out of a sack, but should be sack.  

4:30:  Quick Screen Option 

4:40:  No Quick Options

4:50:  Quick crossing route, 2 Yards

5:04:  No Quick Options

5:15:  No Quick Options

5:30:  Quick WR Screen

5:43:  No Quick Options

5:58:  I think this is just a designed screen pass, no reads

6:10:  No Quick Options

6:20:  Quick crossing option

6:30:  Maybe a quick slant, but inside the 10, so hard to say.  He just runs it, away from sack.  However, watch the bottom of the screen, the quick option is to the quick slant.  But Indiana is ready for this, handing off the slant, and then racing back for the fade.  Once Indiana did the handoff, good no throw.  

7:10:  Basically a handoff that counts as pass

7:25 No Quick Option

7:35:  Quick comeback route

7:42: Quick WR screen, albeit this looks like a designed run anyway

8:02:  No Quick Option, as far as the 10 yard line is concerned

8:23:  No Quick Option:  This is an instance of a bad reaction btw.  Pre-snap, he sees a middle field safety, and his RPO read is to the outside receiver, but the safety went towards the sidelines.  You can see Fields look directly at the receiver coming open, but doesn't pull the trigger.  This is a bad play by him.

8:38:  No Quick Option:  Turns a sack into a horrible INT

9:05:  Quick slants all around, but play breaks down.  The guard and the RB both move to pick up a blitz up the middle, leaving a free tackle (or end) with a direct line to Fields.  Guy gets there before Fields can even set himself.  

9:15:  Quick Curl Outside 5 yards

9:23:  Quick Curl 3 Yards

9:40:  No Quick Option:  This is another case, where the RB just gets trucked, and he doesn't have any options.  All the routes are developing down the field at the point of him needing to escape the pocket.  

9:54:  Quick Crossing Route

10:04:  No Quick Option

10:15:  Quick Crossing Route

10:40:  No Quick Option

10:54:  No Quick Option:  I'm not sure why he didn't throw this ball

11:12:  No Quick Option

11:25:  Not sure there is a quick option, this was basically foiled by the safety.  The play is to No. 2 in the end zone, but the safety doesn't sprint to the right, but hangs up enough to close the intended passing lane.  This was partially what I was talking about in terms of the quality of defense.  I think it'd be likely a safety facing BYU sprints to the outside receiver in his area, leaving the pass to No. 2 open.  Wilson would hit it, much like Fields would have hit it here as well, and stats look better.  I still don't understand how this flip to the TE missed so high.  

Anyway, what I wanted to show was the difference in philosophies between OSU when Haskins was there, and Fields this year.  They entrusted him a lot more to make downfield reads, whereas with Haskins, everything had a simple read option to it.  If for any reason, there was a blitz or issue, he had a quick outlet far more often than Fields.  The offense was basic as far as Haskins was concerned.  

Good/Bad:  

Haskins:  If you look at metrics, Haskins was releasing the ball much quicker than Fields, less time to throw, etc.  He had those quick outlets, which meant he was reading one simple thing at the line, and making a decision.  This is basically the spread system carrying the QB, because defenses just can't match up.   

The bad being that when he gets to the NFL, those quick reads are covered because the defenders are smarter and faster.  Now he has to learn to read progressions beyond the first read, that it's not all a single defender read, but understand the shells.  

Fields:  The metrics make it tough because he's waiting for plays to develop, doesn't have a quick outlet.  What Indiana did in this game is simple, when they knew the quick outlets weren't there, they sent blitzes from anywhere they could.  Essentially betting their guys could get there faster than those routes develop.  Partially, this is what NW copied as well, but had more success because of Olave being out. 

The issue here is that Fields will hold onto the ball a lot longer, and might be trigger shy at times because he's comfortable holding onto the ball.  This leads to a lot of sacks where the protection was decent, and he was just waiting for the route to develop.  The good thing is that he's at least versed in the down field reads, without the safety of a quick option.  Therefore, instead of learning to make more progressive reads, what he needs to learn are hot reads, those quick releases against the blitz.  

Personally, I feel like reading hot throws are easier than learning progression reads, which was why I don't think it's necessarily bad.  

Now, every QB needs to learn progressions at a faster rate in the NFL, it's just a big step up.  And I could be completely wrong, as most people.  When Darnold came out, he was demonstrably better at making reads than Josh Allen.  However, Allen made major strides in the NFL and Darnold regressed, which was completely unpredictable.  So it's all just an educated guess.  

I think OSU system isn't quite the same as the Haskins ones, but more suitable for a transition to the NFL.  Now that's like saying I'm more likely to throw a TD than my toddler, just because it's true doesn't mean it's likely.  You just have to hope that whoever we pick, gets the right coaching and actually develops.  

I don't hate Wilson actually, I think he has some special talent as well.  I think Fields is the safer bet in terms of ceiling/floor but I also don't have access to their mental evaluations or character.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Side note - I liked your story. 

It just seems to me that Fields fans only response to seeing opinions on Fields that doesn't fit their narrative is to attack the source. 

For example Derek Klassen had a positive post about Fields that all Fields Fans loved. However I will sooner then later make a topic about why I believe Justin Fields will bust and I will cite the below content from that very same author and I guarantee the majority of the comments will just be attacking Klassen. 

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/qb-klassroom/qbklassroom-ohio-state-qb-justin-fields-vs-nw

Fields is accurate and played with a great Oline which is going to fool many people. Its these stretches above that give you a hint of how he is going to play against NFL when his oline is average and he is confused by defenses. 

When Fields fans really have no come back for why he has these issues with progressions the only answer is attacking the source. 

The hot read question with OSU is an interesting one because I didn't see it much on film. The only example I can remember is here at 6:10:

You see him point out the LB blitz and adjust the slot TE to run a slant into the area vacated by the LB. TD. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, win4ever said:

Thanks.  By no means am I expert, so I could be completely wrong lol.  I really want to, but I can't find any All-22 film of Wilson.  I'm going to see if it's available somewhere as we get closer to the draft.  

Michigan from last year, but it's his first year in the system.  I picked Indiana because it's one of his bad games this year, and they were good on defense.   

 

Really just killer stuff here @win4ever. Really hope you make this into a blogpost.

There is the a difference between just saying it and asking others to believe you and actually watching the plays and seeing it for yourself which you have done above. While there are those Klassen breakdowns which certainly show us there may be processing issues perhaps its limited to certain plays - Also it is certainly nice to see the other side as well. More people need to see this and it would be a great blog post for you. 

I had Wilson over Fields comfortably at number 2 but this certainly changes things. I like to keep an open mind and I know people love to form their own opinions, be bullish and move on to the next position. But drafting a QB up top is so rare I kind of want to enjoy the process here. Although drafting Darnold has not worked out so far that whole process was a ton of fun and at the time it seemed like we lucked out. For example immediate thoughts on Zach Wilson was that he's a small soft girly guy. But that Coastal Carolina game showed him getting roughed up and him being very competitive. 

I am def going to rewatch Fields and try to be unbiased. Just soured on him and would sour on any QB that has progression/processing issues as really thats the most important thing for a QB. But in terms of his personality it's perfect and I kind of love that its been him vs Trevor for years. Obviously it doesn't hurt that as an athlete he's probably a first round pick if he was a LB. 

The Tea leaves are looking very strongly that Zach Wilson is the favorite here but it's definitely going to be a fun watch to see how this goes. For Fields: In terms of Processing/Progressions all thats probably needed is to make sure theres not a red flag there and theres some semblance of hope he can progress in a NFL system for him to be an Elite option in the draft. You definitely demonstrated that. My mind is wide open on Fields. 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, maury77 said:

Schofield is really good. Ex college football QB and former attorney who quit his job to do NFL draft analysis. He used to run inside the pylon. 

Yeah, he was really good at explaining some of the stuff.  Definitely added him to the list as well.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Really just killer stuff here @win4ever. Really hope you make this into a blogpost.

There is the a difference between just saying it and asking others to believe you and actually watching the plays and seeing it for yourself which you have done above. While there are those Klassen breakdowns which certainly show us there may be processing issues perhaps its limited to certain plays - Also it is certainly nice to see the other side as well. More people need to see this and it would be a great blog post for you. 

I had Wilson over Fields comfortably at number 2 but this certainly changes things. I like to keep an open mind and I know people love to form their own opinions, be bullish and move on to the next position. But drafting a QB up top is so rare I kind of want to enjoy the process here. Although drafting Darnold has not worked out so far that whole process was a ton of fun and at the time it seemed like we lucked out. For example immediate thoughts on Zach Wilson was that he's a small soft girly guy. But that Coastal Carolina game showed him getting roughed up and him being very competitive. 

I am def going to rewatch Fields and try to be unbiased. Just soured on him and would sour on any QB that has progression/processing issues as really thats the most important thing for a QB. But in terms of his personality it's perfect and I kind of love that its been him vs Trevor for years. Obviously it doesn't hurt that as an athlete he's probably a first round pick if he was a LB. 

The Tea leaves are looking very strongly that Zach Wilson is the favorite here but it's definitely going to be a fun watch to see how this goes. For Fields: In terms of Processing/Progressions all thats probably needed is to make sure theres not a red flag there and theres some semblance of hope he can progress in a NFL system for him to be an Elite option in the draft. You definitely demonstrated that. My mind is wide open on Fields. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a detailed breakdown showing why the "slow progressions" argument is mostly BS IMO

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Really just killer stuff here @win4ever. Really hope you make this into a blogpost.

There is the a difference between just saying it and asking others to believe you and actually watching the plays and seeing it for yourself which you have done above. While there are those Klassen breakdowns which certainly show us there may be processing issues perhaps its limited to certain plays - Also it is certainly nice to see the other side as well. More people need to see this and it would be a great blog post for you. 

I had Wilson over Fields comfortably at number 2 but this certainly changes things. I like to keep an open mind and I know people love to form their own opinions, be bullish and move on to the next position. But drafting a QB up top is so rare I kind of want to enjoy the process here. Although drafting Darnold has not worked out so far that whole process was a ton of fun and at the time it seemed like we lucked out. For example immediate thoughts on Zach Wilson was that he's a small soft girly guy. But that Coastal Carolina game showed him getting roughed up and him being very competitive. 

I am def going to rewatch Fields and try to be unbiased. Just soured on him and would sour on any QB that has progression/processing issues as really thats the most important thing for a QB. But in terms of his personality it's perfect and I kind of love that its been him vs Trevor for years. Obviously it doesn't hurt that as an athlete he's probably a first round pick if he was a LB. 

The Tea leaves are looking very strongly that Zach Wilson is the favorite here but it's definitely going to be a fun watch to see how this goes. For Fields: In terms of Processing/Progressions all thats probably needed is to make sure theres not a red flag there and theres some semblance of hope he can progress in a NFL system for him to be an Elite option in the draft. You definitely demonstrated that. My mind is wide open on Fields. 

 

 

 

Thanks, it's an inexact science, lol.  The Darnold draft, I started out with Rosen as my No. 1, but the more I watched him, the more I disliked him personally and his play.  I ended up liking Mayfield the best out of that group, I thought he was underrated, when we thought he was like QB3/4.  For all of that, I HATED Josh Allen's tape, reminded me so much of Paxton Lynch with worse accuracy.  And now he's an MVP candidate.  

Yeah, what I found was that the media has different agendas than actually helping people scout, so it turned me off.  My best example was Geno.  After his pro-day, Maycock went on air saying the Jets might have to trade up in the first after that performance. I bought in completely.  I tried looking for it, but I think they scrubbed it from the internet, lol.  So after that debacle, just started to look for myself.  

Wilson to me is a very good pick, just more risky.  I like smaller school guys if the athletic ability is just undeniable.  Wentz went to a small school but built like a linebacker with a very good arm.  Allen was just a freak, cannon with the ability to run.  The issue for me is, I don't think Wilson (or Lawrence for that matter) can use their mobility as a weapon in the NFL, the players are just too fast.  They can do the sneak runs and scrambles that we see from Darnold at times, but it's an emergency option, rather than a weapon.  A guy like Fields can actually use it as a weapon, which impacts the defense immensely.  

I think all the QBs need work with reads coming out.  The college reads are so much easier that it's a major adjustment to figure things out.  It really depends more on the coaching, and if they can simplify the game enough for the QB to get acclimated.  We didn't do that with Darnold, the Ravens/Bills did it with their prospects.  We can even see the difference going from Kitchens to Stefanski did for Mayfield, even after losing his WR1.  

If say we trade down from 2 to 5 so the Bengals can have Sewell, and one of Miami/Atlanta takes Fields, then I'm perfectly fine taking Wilson, because Wilson + the trade down haul makes up for the difference between him and Fields.  

It'll definitely be interesting, although I lean more towards nerve wrecking than fun, lol.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, maury77 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a detailed breakdown showing why the "slow progressions" argument is mostly BS IMO

He actually makes some good reads, I noticed he's hesitant at times when a backside defender is trying to bait him.  I think for him, the biggest aspect to learn are the pre-snap reads, because they still do that "set - read - turn to sideline for audible" version of the offense.  That's the one reason I still have Lawrence ahead of Fields, because I feel like he has more autonomy in per-snap reads.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Shockwave said:


Killer breakdown. Kinda blew my mind alittle. I think at the very least I need to rewatch some of Fields and keep an open mind with what you said about Ohio States scheme and how this could be a good thing.

Pretty crazy that 99 percent of the talk of Fields/Wilson turns into flame city on the main board and first post over here and you get this gem. Thanks and would be a great blog post if you went into it further as it prob will be talked about frequently.

Do you have any concerns about ohio state QB’s? He is not Haskins but some will be concerned.

Not trying to take anything away from @win4ever he's 10x better then I am at breaking it down and explaining it in a more digestible fashion but a couple of us have literally been saying all the same sh*t about the system and Fields for months when a few were saying to pump the breaks on this TL is generational. @maury77

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...