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Analyst on YouTube has Zach Wilson above Trevor Lawrence


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15 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Lol what. If he takes two steps to the right he evaded the pressure because his player gets back in front of the defender and can make the easy throw. He runs into the second guy outside of the pocket. My point is that you’re pointing out a play by Wilson that is praised even tho it is a bad and the same is being true for Fields. There’s a lack of good faith evaluation with these guys and it’s what’s wrong with the QB evaluation at this point. 

 

Nice straw man argument here. The knock on both Wilson and Fields is that they never see pressure. Literally both of them see pressure at an absurdly low rate. The argument that can be made against Fields that can’t be made against Wilson is that he converts pressure to sacks more than you like and he holds the ball longer when blitzed than any other QB in college or pros. 

I pointed out a play where Wilson is directing a WR who is double coved to break his route mid play while eating a sandwich in the pocket.  How is this even remotely comparable to what you shared?  They could not be more different examples.  

Your last point is a total contradiction.  Fields never faces pressure but Fields is bad when facing pressure.  GTFO.  I'm done with this conversation.

my gawd

 

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9 minutes ago, JiF said:

I pointed out a play where Wilson is directing a WR who is double coved to break his route mid play while eating a sandwich in the pocket.  How is this even remotely comparable to what you shared?  They could not be more different examples.  

Your last point is a total contradiction.  Fields never faces pressure but Fields is bad when facing pressure.  GTFO.  I'm done with this conversation.

my gawd

 

Please. You can’t see that both of those are bad plays sitting on a pedestal of “wow look how good this guy is.” The Wilson play is complete BS and so is praising that Fields play. Both guys made a play harder and both get unwarranted love for bad plays. 

I didn’t say Fields was bad under pressure but that his performance when he does feel pressure doesn’t trend the way you want it to and it’s worth mentioning. Also if you’re gonna be selectively literal let me know so I can alter my language for your understanding. Besides that your point is crap, it is not contradictory for someone to face pressure at low rates but be bad under pressure (I am not saying that’s true about Fields). Lawrence also sees “never” sees pressure and he’s the worst of the bunch when he does. 

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11 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Please. You can’t see that on both of those a bad play is sitting on a pedestal of “wow look how good this guy is.” The Wilson play is complete BS and so is praising that Fields play. Both guys made a play harder and both get love for bad plays that are unwarranted. 

I didn’t say Fields was bad under pressure but that his performance when he does feel pressure doesn’t trend the way you want it to and it’s worth mentioning. Also if you’re gonna be selectively literal let me know so I can alter my language for your understanding. Besides that your point is crap, it is not contradictory for someone to face pressure at low rates but be bad under pressure (I am not saying that’s true about Fields). Lawrence also sees “never” sees pressure and he’s the worst of the bunch when he does. 

Cool, so why attack me for something some dipsh*t said about Fields?  I didnt say it was a great play or compare the 2 saying, look at the difference.  You just went there for no reason and used a terrible example in the process.  I dont listen to these ****tards, ever.  I simply pointed out a play that would never happen in the NFL and you went to a total extreme and it wasnt even comparable.

The knock on Fields for months is how bad he is because blah blah NW and blah blah blah Indiana and blah blah blah pressure.  So yes, your statement is/was contradictory.   Does he see pressure or not?   Pick one.

 

 

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6 hours ago, maury77 said:

Really good breakdown oof Wilson @win4ever @kdels62 @Paradis @Shockwave. I'll post my thoughts on the video later. 

Here's my thoughts;

I don't like the tape much. 

My main issue is "LOOK AT THAT POCKET".  On pretty much every throw, he has like 5 yard clearance around him.  Forget pocket manipulation, this is basically like when you play two hand touch at recess in school, and no one can rush the passer.  He has all day to go through his progressions, heck he could go through his progressions twice for all that matters.  

The second aspect is another one that I talked about somewhere, how much of his game is based on moxie and confidence.  I think he's more talented than him, but I remember the moxie of Jhonny Manziel in college, when he could just throw it up to Mike Evans.  I like risk takers, I like playing with fire type of guys, but those guys better have that elite level talent.  Mahomes can do that because he can put it on the money falling down.  Brett Favre could do that because he could make throws others couldn't.  Manziel couldn't do it in the NFL because for a great completion, there was a bad play that resulted in a turnover, rather than an incomplete pass or reception.  In this one, early on, he questions an out route throw when the deep post was the read (and it was a wide open clean pocket as you could get).  That's an INT in the NFL, that's a throw Geno Smith decides to throw and we wonder why.  

I was listening to a rotoworld podcast, and it noted that the level of competition faced by Wilson was in the 12th percentile.  

I love his arm, but he has a lot more question marks to the point where I feel he's closer to Lance than he's closer to Fields.  

2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Not gonna lie between this thread and this video I dislike Fields and Wilson more than ever. I just can’t get on board with “holds the ball forever because Chris Olave will always get open 30 yards downfield” and “throws the ball into tight windows when easier players are open” as positive traits.

I think with any NFL prospect, you are looking at things that transfers over.  In every single QB's case, the processing doesn't transfer over.  All of them will need to upgrade processing.   In Wilson's case, the arm transfers over.  In Fields case, the arm and mobility transfer over.  

39 minutes ago, JiF said:

I think my favorite part of this flag football game he broke down is when Wilson is eating a sandwich in the backfield, skips the wide open come back and starts directing his WR who is double covered to break off his route and head to the pylon.  lmfao but yo peeps those stats and that live arm!

 

I don't know the last time I've seen pockets THAT clean.  There were a couple you could make an argument for illegal receiver down the field on the OL because they were just pushing the DLine backwards.  

1 hour ago, JiF said:

I dont think anyone is calling them positive traits, they're just facts, at least in regards to Fields.  Wilson threw a ton to his backs and had a lot out bail out routes available, he just plays hero ball, so he's a little tougher to understand sometimes.  

Fwiw - if Josh Allen can overcome all the sh*t he's overcome to put an MVP caliber season, I'm not worried about an all world 5 star athlete with Ivy league brain figuring it out ie: processing faster or getting the ball out accordingly based on the system.  I'd say the same about Wilson but he's more like a 2 star athlete with the brain of a squid, so probably a lot harder for him to make it.

Yeah, to me it comes down to this:

I have much more faith Field's game translates to the NFL than Wilson by a fair margin.  

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39 minutes ago, JiF said:

Cool, so why attack me for something some dipsh*t said about Fields?  I didnt say it was a great play or compare the 2 saying, look at the difference.  You just went there for no reason and used a terrible example in the process.  I dont listen to these ****tards, ever.  I simply pointed out a play that would never happen in the NFL and you went to a total extreme and it wasnt even comparable.

The knock on Fields for months is how bad he is because blah blah NW and blah blah blah Indiana and blah blah blah pressure.  So yes, your statement is/was contradictory.   Does he see pressure or not?   Pick one.

 

 

Yet you cite the play and the analysis in the original video. My point is simply that these guys online are playing to their agenda and it happens with Fields and with Wilson. You chose to single out an example and I countered with the fact that it’s not an isolated event. I was not arguing that the analysis on that play was dumb but that the analysis is getting bad on all sides. I wasn’t even arguing just supplementing how annoying it’s getting.

He doesn’t see a lot of pressure at all.  Why does it have to be either? He can see very little pressure as a whole and have bad traits in circumstances when he does see pressure. It’s partially why he threw 3 picks against Indiana which is just a fact.

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On 2/15/2021 at 8:44 PM, win4ever said:

 


I use Walter Football like a calendar. When I can't think of a prospect's name, I scroll down their list. The scouting is useless with them.

I think the reality is that you have to take any of the main stream reports with a grain of salt because they get paid by traffic. It's much more beneficial to not have a consensus ranking, rather make it as cloudy as possible. Fields doesn't read progressions? Mac Jones does! Who is better? It gets better traffic if you keep coming back for clarity. This is why a bunch of the mock drafts will have wildly different picks. After the draft, very few go back to see who got it right. Everyone just googles "Player X scouting report" and see so and so said he'd be a top 5 pick!!

In essence, most basic spread systems have this concept: Find the one on one matchup. A mesh is simply two crossing routes in the same area, which works as a pick play. One of the defenders has to go around someone, slowing them down, thus open pass. The problem is this works great if you are playing a lesser college because the defensive guys just aren't as fast as the guys on offense. When you face a team that can match that athleticism, then you have issues. A good example would be Oregon playing OSU in the championship with Mariota.

So the OSU system seems a bit more evolved, by taking away the heavy reliance of quick routes, and installed deeper routes. In this instance, it's not just about matching up one on one, but more into route manipulation. The defense can't key in on one thing, and jump quick decisions, allowing your receivers a better chance to get open. The downside is that, there are plays which take so long to develop, your QB has to avoid the sack or make quick reads.

OSU throws in another wrinkle from spread, but I think also used by the Pats in having receiver option routes. So a receiver may have the freedom for an in or out route based on the defense, and the QB releases based on that read. This means you can plug in receivers and keep on chugging. That's why you see guys like KJ Hill or Benjamin Victor do well at OSU, and basically be end of the draft fodder. They are relying on the QB to be consistent in the reads, and it's nearly impossible to defend when executed properly.

The downside is that it's heavily susceptible to the blitz, which is what Indiana and NW adjusted. They both got beat down last year, got better this year, and attacked. They would do overload blitzes while dropping guys into coverage, stating the blitz would get there before receivers made their adjustments. This is similar to what Rex did against the Pats at times, he'd attack their weakness and hold them down decently. If they adjusted to a different system, they didn't have a chance, which was why we oscillated between blowouts and competitive games with them. In the NW game, Ohio State adjusted to the run away from the defensive pressure, which allowed Sermon to run wild.

The hard part is, as you mentioned, we just don't have the All 22 to see adjustments from Wilson, pretty much just guesswork.
 

 

Agree on all the draft sites. I think when you look at them a ton you can certainly feel a momentum for certain players but theres certainly some BC out there and too much clickbait. I try not to hate on anyone but I really dislike Matt Miller. You're also right about accountability - Theres none. 

Love your breakdown of the OSU offense and makes a ton of sense. Thanks as I certainly did not know the whole mesh system concepts at that depth. I'm just wondering why Fields isn't the universal 2 or 1b from people that understand these things. Even when I was hating on Fields it was undeniable he is ridiculously accurate and he's a super athlete. Front office guys and scouts have to know this stuff. It's just weird Fields really isn't hyped as much as he should be. 

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Agree on all the draft sites. I think when you look at them a ton you can certainly feel a momentum for certain players but theres certainly some BC out there and too much clickbait. I try not to hate on anyone but I really dislike Matt Miller. You're also right about accountability - Theres none. 

Love your breakdown of the OSU offense and makes a ton of sense. Thanks as I certainly did not know the whole mesh system concepts at that depth. I'm just wondering why Fields isn't the universal 2 or 1b from people that understand these things. Even when I was hating on Fields it was undeniable he is ridiculously accurate and he's a super athlete. Front office guys and scouts have to know this stuff. It's just weird Fields really isn't hyped as much as he should be. 

 

 

 

Because putting Wilson over Fields leads to more clicks. That's it. There is no doubt that TL is going 1, so they have to create intrigue somehow. 

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Regarding the QB school video on Wilson, I think he is the funnest QB to watch in this class. He is such a smooth thrower compared to TL and Fields. Wilson also has the quickest release and he throws the tightest spiral. But the video showed me that while Wilson has a good arm, he does not have an elite arm (despite what others think). There are 2-3 balls on that video that were short or dying when they got to the receiver. Another thing about Wilson is that while it is fun watching him hurdle defenders and be reckless with his body, that is going to be a disaster in the pros with his frame and medical history. He has to learn how to avoid shots to his body and run out of bounds. 

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14 hours ago, maury77 said:

Really good breakdown oof Wilson @win4ever @kdels62 @Paradis @Shockwave. I'll post my thoughts on the video later. 

Great Video. Needed to watch after kids fell asleep. JT's videos are long lol. 

Theres definitely some hero ball in there, over confidence and advanced throws in a mixed bag. Just my own opinion here but his mechanics fluctuate a decent amount which has to alter the throw negatively at times. When he uses his hips/body right it looks effortless but I saw the dying ball too Maury along with the bad decision to throw it to that WR.

Theres a-lot of the name Mahomes(texas tech version) thrown around places in regards to Wilson. Not sure if its fair but it surely gets Wilson a ton of attention and mega draft hype. Super interested to see if Wilson really is going 2-4 or this is all just draft twitter hype. Ever since Tom Savage I always stay a-little skeptical of it all 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Agree on all the draft sites. I think when you look at them a ton you can certainly feel a momentum for certain players but theres certainly some BC out there and too much clickbait. I try not to hate on anyone but I really dislike Matt Miller. You're also right about accountability - Theres none. 

Love your breakdown of the OSU offense and makes a ton of sense. Thanks as I certainly did not know the whole mesh system concepts at that depth. I'm just wondering why Fields isn't the universal 2 or 1b from people that understand these things. Even when I was hating on Fields it was undeniable he is ridiculously accurate and he's a super athlete. Front office guys and scouts have to know this stuff. It's just weird Fields really isn't hyped as much as he should be. 

 

 

 

I don't particularly like any of them, so I just watch the film breakdown ones and try to form some opinion of my own.  In the end, it doesn't really ,matter what opinion I form, or what I can convince someone of (or they can convince me) because the Jets pick whoever they pick, and I have to live with it.  

There was a story back in a couple years ago, about how ESPN manufactures stories on a new cycle. 

https://deadspin.com/how-espn-manufactures-a-story-colin-kaepernick-edition-1185400028

It's the same exact model for all of media, including the draft. 

Always starts with:  "Look for this guy to have sneaky value, could really rise up the board"

Next guy says "League sources say Zach Wilson could be QB2" Like seriously, we had stories about GMs doing everything they can to hide their interest in prospect, but now they feel free to share their draft board to be published.  

Few guys run with the league sources guy, in a washer cycle of news, because it's all speculation.  If your job was creating traffic on a site, you pull every damn rumor out there and ask for opinions.   

Here is where the film guys come in, because breaking down film takes hours.  When I wrote about the Jets here or the Titans blog, I would literally be up until like 3 in the morning doing film reviews.  The sad part was that it got maybe 20 responses on a post, but "Jamal Adams changed his font on IG" would be like a 25 page debate on the inner meanings.  This is where the film session and business collide.  If you are in the business of attracting traffic, you always sway to the side of uncertainty.  "Hey guys, these are the quality traits that I'm seeing, but they are so close though, what do you guys think?".  If people uniformly came out and said 1. Trevor 2. Fields. 3. Wilson.  4.  Lance. 5. Jones then people would accept it and move on.  

If everything is muddied a bit for as long as possible, then more people check in.  Hmm, they're so close together, I feel like I need to check out all the videos to see if I can solve it.  The fact of the matter is that the draft in its entirety is an inexact science.  For every Mahomes that hits, there is a Kizer that fails.  Because college isn't played on an even playing field, you can pretty much spin any guy as good/bad.  It pays to make the answer as muddled as possible, because no one cares once the draft is over on who was right or wrong.  Everyone just googles the name and watches the breakdown looking for good qualities.  

Watch all of the film breakdowns, it's rare someone goes "wtf? I wouldn't draft this kid on my high school team".  I think I saw videos about Jake Fromm being a sleeper last year.  All of them have subscribers they want to attract, or patreon they need to peddle.  I say this because I really thought about starting a JN film breakdown channel, but I just don't have time.  My issue was that I didn't want to cater to business above substance crowd that I hate in the media.  Substance doesn't sell, confusion does.  

I'm positive these are coming, already started with "league source has Wilson as QB1" news.  

- Is Lawrence QB1?  Some league source says No

- Is Fields QB1?  "Rumors around Jags say Meyer smitten with Fields

- Is Wilson this year's Mayfield? "Their rise is pretty similar"

- After Lance's pro day, one team compared him favorably to none other than Josh Allen

- Mac Jones on the whiteboard blew one team away

The main takeaway is that if a team likes a guy (aside from the No. 1 pick), they aren't leaking it to anyone.  It serves them no purpose at all.   

 

 

3 hours ago, maury77 said:

Regarding the QB school video on Wilson, I think he is the funnest QB to watch in this class. He is such a smooth thrower compared to TL and Fields. Wilson also has the quickest release and he throws the tightest spiral. But the video showed me that while Wilson has a good arm, he does not have an elite arm (despite what others think). There are 2-3 balls on that video that were short or dying when they got to the receiver. Another thing about Wilson is that while it is fun watching him hurdle defenders and be reckless with his body, that is going to be a disaster in the pros with his frame and medical history. He has to learn how to avoid shots to his body and run out of bounds. 

He reminds me a lot of Manziel, with a better arm.  Pretty hard to stop in college, and always just took shots down the field that seemed to work.  Wrong reads didn't matter, but once he got to the NFL, things weren't as easy.  Same thing with Lance, with the level of competition, wrong reads don't matter.  Those aren't defenses that can handle an NFL arm, which makes everything easier.  

If we just look at that out route pass that was questionable because the defender was right next to him.  Watch the defender on the long post route.  The receiver shows like he's going to cut outside or run a curl route, and this guy turns around to the sideline with his back to the receiver.  What is he defending?  Like what's the best case scenario there? He runs an out route with 2 yards to spare? If it's a stop and go, you just gave up side positioning.  If it's a post route (like it was), you just got burned and turned around.  If it's a curl route, you are basically running away from the play.  If it's an slant or in route, again you are running away from the play.  That's the type of competition that bothers me when looking at the film, because these guys are no match.  They have shots against guys with weak arms but not good offenses.  

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

 

Yeah, I heard this one too, kinda weird Fields was like the 8th best of all time in terms of recruiting, goes out there and plays lights out, and it's barely a blip.  Yet, Hackenberg sucked for 3 years, and we still heard about his HS recruiting.  

42 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Great Video. Needed to watch after kids fell asleep. JT's videos are long lol. 

Theres definitely some hero ball in there, over confidence and advanced throws in a mixed bag. Just my own opinion here but his mechanics fluctuate a decent amount which has to alter the throw negatively at times. When he uses his hips/body right it looks effortless but I saw the dying ball too Maury along with the bad decision to throw it to that WR.

Theres a-lot of the name Mahomes(texas tech version) thrown around places in regards to Wilson. Not sure if its fair but it surely gets Wilson a ton of attention and mega draft hype. Super interested to see if Wilson really is going 2-4 or this is all just draft twitter hype. Ever since Tom Savage I always stay a-little skeptical of it all 

 

 

 

 

I think his arm is good enough for the NFL, but it's really the competition that worries me because he doesn't have to worry nearly as much about mistakes.  I think he's a pure physical scouting prospect, similar to Lance.  You pick them because you believe the physical tools mean you can develop the mental tools.  

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12 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Yet you cite the play and the analysis in the original video. My point is simply that these guys online are playing to their agenda and it happens with Fields and with Wilson. You chose to single out an example and I countered with the fact that it’s not an isolated event. I was not arguing that the analysis on that play was dumb but that the analysis is getting bad on all sides. I wasn’t even arguing just supplementing how annoying it’s getting.

He doesn’t see a lot of pressure at all.  Why does it have to be either? He can see very little pressure as a whole and have bad traits in circumstances when he does see pressure. It’s partially why he threw 3 picks against Indiana which is just a fact.

I really didnt site the analysis, like at all.  I dont know if he's complimenting or knocking him for it, I didnt really listen.   I didnt get into anything he said, I didnt reference a single other play or single word of his take on Wilson. I highlighted 1 play that in my eyes is way you can ignore just about everything you hear/see from a stat perspective with Wilson (and I've referenced these plays way before this video was posted).  He's literally sitting in the cleanest pocket I've ever seen, lets not focus on the fact he skipped the easy curl read, he called of a WR running a post who was double covered...it's nutty.  That's intermural flag football sh*t.  He'll never ever do what he did on that play in the NFL, ever and he does similar sh*t a lot and it's an example of why his video game stats and flashy arm dont actually mean anything.  

And I'm sorry but the play you shared, is not the same, like at all.  FWIW, who knows if he could even see that TE.  He had 4 guys in his face with in a split second and he had 2 LB'ers sitting in front of the TE...considering the flow of the play was going right, maybe he didnt think he could get it to him.  IDK but they're 2 different plays and 1 is actually an example of what you say Fields cant do ie: handling pressure and hitting an open guy...maybe he missed the easier read but the fact remains, he avoided pressure and delivered a strike.  Very different then picking your toe nails while directing WR who double covered mid play down field.  I understand you're just trying to share the analysis but again, I dont care what the ****ers say.  That should be quite clear since I'm the guy on this board who has been screaming pump the brakes on TL since before the ******* season and literally had the entire board telling me I was crazy.

Dont group me in with the stupid, it's offensive.  ;-)❤️

 

 

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11 hours ago, win4ever said:

Here's my thoughts;

I don't like the tape much. 

My main issue is "LOOK AT THAT POCKET".  On pretty much every throw, he has like 5 yard clearance around him.  Forget pocket manipulation, this is basically like when you play two hand touch at recess in school, and no one can rush the passer.  He has all day to go through his progressions, heck he could go through his progressions twice for all that matters.  

The second aspect is another one that I talked about somewhere, how much of his game is based on moxie and confidence.  I think he's more talented than him, but I remember the moxie of Jhonny Manziel in college, when he could just throw it up to Mike Evans.  I like risk takers, I like playing with fire type of guys, but those guys better have that elite level talent.  Mahomes can do that because he can put it on the money falling down.  Brett Favre could do that because he could make throws others couldn't.  Manziel couldn't do it in the NFL because for a great completion, there was a bad play that resulted in a turnover, rather than an incomplete pass or reception.  In this one, early on, he questions an out route throw when the deep post was the read (and it was a wide open clean pocket as you could get).  That's an INT in the NFL, that's a throw Geno Smith decides to throw and we wonder why.  

I was listening to a rotoworld podcast, and it noted that the level of competition faced by Wilson was in the 12th percentile.  

I love his arm, but he has a lot more question marks to the point where I feel he's closer to Lance than he's closer to Fields.  

I think with any NFL prospect, you are looking at things that transfers over.  In every single QB's case, the processing doesn't transfer over.  All of them will need to upgrade processing.   In Wilson's case, the arm transfers over.  In Fields case, the arm and mobility transfer over.  

I don't know the last time I've seen pockets THAT clean.  There were a couple you could make an argument for illegal receiver down the field on the OL because they were just pushing the DLine backwards.  

Yeah, to me it comes down to this:

I have much more faith Field's game translates to the NFL than Wilson by a fair margin.  

Yeah, I feel like there’s a point where Wilson realizes the players around him aren’t good enough to beat him and he takes advantage of that. Good for him for being that much better than the competition but still. 

I agree that Fields has a very nice skill set and it will translate. I also think that Fields is gonna be behind on making NFL reads and adjusting playing against NFL pass rush. I think he’ll be able to make the adjustment over time and his ability will carry him through year 1. He’s QB 1 because he can make up for his deficiencies with raw ability and insane accuracy. Fields is behind on adjustments a the LOS and when the play happens, not because he can’t improve but because OSU didn’t demand it of him. I’m concerned about his adjustments to the blitz, he’s gonna need to be protected while he figures it out and irons out his bad OSU trained habits. Still accuracy and athleticism can’t be taught.

I think Wilson is gonna adjust more easily to the NFL. The reads he makes in college  are more NFL/ west coast than Fields, while also showing more deep accuracy and understanding of space than Lawrence. He’s developed bad habits by being better than his competition and he takes unnecessary hits on his small-ish body. He leaves plays on the field because he’d rather complete a 40 yard pass than try to hit the guy in stride on a tougher throw. Idk if that’s a positive or negative thing but I hate it.

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This thread has certainly become an interesting debate...Lol. 
 

I think there is tendency to become too micro in the analysis of college QBs these days.  You can only evaluate them in the context of the offense they are playing in,  it doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to play like that at the next level under a different system and different coaching.  
 

Here are some critiques of Herbert from last year:


This is the biggest concern by far. There are numerous examples where Herbert doesn’t pull the trigger when he should or his instincts kick in too late.
 

There are times when Herbert locks on to a route before the snap, and he’s throwing there, even if someone else is open. Is this coaching? Is it Herbert? This is what scouts will need to find out.

 

Are Herbert’s anticipation issues related to him not being confident in his abilities because the offense didn’t ask him to be confident in his play? Is he hesitant to throw the ball because his wide receivers take too long to get open? 

Or is this just who Herbert is — an imperfect quarterback who will not improve in the NFL?

Just like most quarterbacks, the coaching staff who drafts Herbert will shape him. Herbert needs a staff who will tell him “You’re the guy. Be the guy.”

 

 

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@kdels62

this is where all the garbage analysis on Fields is lost on me...all the stuff he cant do, on full display at an elite level and there are tons more example of Fields doing this type of sh*t

 

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21 hours ago, win4ever said:

 

I have much more faith Field's game translates to the NFL than Wilson by a fair margin.  

I do not understand this at al. I think Wilson's game translates to the NFL significantly better than Fields. He has a quicker release. He throws with more anticipation. He throws the deep out incredibly well, He is good both to his left and to the right. Go lookup Fields heat map he has almost no ability to throw to his left. Wilson throws with better placement. He is skilled and playing at center and at play action. Has by far the most snaps from center (which is very important for our new offense) of the Top 3. Fields to me is not in the same world as Wilson in terms of throwing. He is more athletic than Wilson (he is more athletic than people think) and has more explosiveness as a runner which will help him a lot.  Several times I have seen Fields just be completely situationally unaware when a play breaks down. I think Fields will REALLY struggle with the speed of the NFL and Wilson will be a Top 10 QB. He is also the best fit by far for our offense.

I am not alone in this. The analysts are rating him higher and it seems GMs are falling in love with him. To me he just jumps out at you as elite.

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11 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Yeah, I feel like there’s a point where Wilson realizes the players around him aren’t good enough to beat him and he takes advantage of that. Good for him for being that much better than the competition but still. 

I agree that Fields has a very nice skill set and it will translate. I also think that Fields is gonna be behind on making NFL reads and adjusting playing against NFL pass rush. I think he’ll be able to make the adjustment over time and his ability will carry him through year 1. He’s QB 1 because he can make up for his deficiencies with raw ability and insane accuracy. Fields is behind on adjustments a the LOS and when the play happens, not because he can’t improve but because OSU didn’t demand it of him. I’m concerned about his adjustments to the blitz, he’s gonna need to be protected while he figures it out and irons out his bad OSU trained habits. Still accuracy and athleticism can’t be taught.

I think Wilson is gonna adjust more easily to the NFL. The reads he makes in college  are more NFL/ west coast than Fields, while also showing more deep accuracy and understanding of space than Lawrence. He’s developed bad habits by being better than his competition and he takes unnecessary hits on his small-ish body. He leaves plays on the field because he’d rather complete a 40 yard pass than try to hit the guy in stride on a tougher throw. Idk if that’s a positive or negative thing but I hate it.

Yeah, that's the factor that I think we have trouble quantifying because it's more of a mental approach.  How much can you function within a system if the defense is actually good.  Again, his level of competition was like 12th percentile for QBs in some time (I forgot the exact time frame from RW).

I think pretty much any QB drafted should sit at least half a year, because they need to adjust to the speed, and responsibilities.  I think Trevor has an advantage with pre-snap reads, but there's nothing that states a guy like Fields can't actually catch up.  I always thought it was impressive he knew the OSU system right after transferring from UGA because I don't think he had to wait out the mandatory year.  

We look at someone like Lamar Jackson (admittedly more athletic, who can get by even though he literally can't seem to make the outside pass.  Having the ability to run, avoid sacks or gain yards goes a long way because defenses can't match up, without guessing.  In terms of Jackson, teams dare him to throw that outside pass, but for a guy like Mahomes, Wilson it's much harder.  

I like Wilson's ability to push the ball down field, but I worry about how the lack of defense might cause the issue.  There was one play on some other film, where he's staring down this wide receiver (in an immaculate pocket) and the CB is playing 5 yards off.  I'm not even sure what the CB is doing, literally just running away from the receiver.  He throws a pass that's easily short to function as a back shoulder pass, and the WR comes back to catch it.  That kind of throw worries me, because he didn't learn to get off that read, he had time to make adjustments like a scramble drill.  I don't think he's going to translate quickly, because while he may have a better understanding in terms of the process, I think the speed is going to be a major adjustment.  

2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I do not understand this at al. I think Wilson's game translates to the NFL significantly better than Fields. He has a quicker release. He throws with more anticipation. He throws the deep out incredibly well, He is good both to his left and to the right. Go lookup Fields heat map he has almost no ability to throw to his left. Wilson throws with better placement. He is skilled and playing at center and at play action. Has by far the most snaps from center (which is very important for our new offense) of the Top 3. Fields to me is not in the same world as Wilson in terms of throwing. He is more athletic than Wilson (he is more athletic than people think) and has more explosiveness as a runner which will help him a lot.  Several times I have seen Fields just be completely situationally unaware when a play breaks down. I think Fields will REALLY struggle with the speed of the NFL and Wilson will be a Top 10 QB. He is also the best fit by far for our offense.

I am not alone in this. The analysts are rating him higher and it seems GMs are falling in love with him. To me he just jumps out at you as elite.

I disagree, but I'm not an expert and have been wrong before.  I'm not going to say you are wrong, because we don't know for sure, so I'll just say my opinion. 

Just my opinion:  

I don't think he throws with more anticipation, I think he makes throws down the field the other team has trouble can't match up with.  

He does throw the deep ball well, but how much of it is based on knowing it's not a 50/50 ball, but an 80/20 ball?

In terms of reports:

https://milehighsports.com/jon-gruden-says-paxton-lynchs-only-comparison-is-cam-newton/

Here's my question:  

Lets say you need a QB (and not Jacksonville), what is the reasoning behind leaking that you love Wilson?  

If you don't need a QB, what is the reasoning behind leaking why you love Wilson?  

If you legitimately like Wilson, you have no reason whatsoever to leak that you love Wilson, think he's QB1 or anything.  Like if I want Micah Parsons to drop, I'd shut up, instead of comparing him to like Luke Kuechly.  

Again, just my opinion, but I think come draft, Fields will be picked ahead.  

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12 hours ago, JiF said:

@kdels62

this is where all the garbage analysis on Fields is lost on me...all the stuff he cant do, on full display at an elite level and there are tons more example of Fields doing this type of sh*t

 

:

Super impressive by Fields. 

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19 hours ago, win4ever said:

I don't particularly like any of them, so I just watch the film breakdown ones and try to form some opinion of my own.  In the end, it doesn't really ,matter what opinion I form, or what I can convince someone of (or they can convince me) because the Jets pick whoever they pick, and I have to live with it.  

There was a story back in a couple years ago, about how ESPN manufactures stories on a new cycle. 

https://deadspin.com/how-espn-manufactures-a-story-colin-kaepernick-edition-1185400028

It's the same exact model for all of media, including the draft. 

Always starts with:  "Look for this guy to have sneaky value, could really rise up the board"

Next guy says "League sources say Zach Wilson could be QB2" Like seriously, we had stories about GMs doing everything they can to hide their interest in prospect, but now they feel free to share their draft board to be published.  

Few guys run with the league sources guy, in a washer cycle of news, because it's all speculation.  If your job was creating traffic on a site, you pull every damn rumor out there and ask for opinions.   

Here is where the film guys come in, because breaking down film takes hours.  When I wrote about the Jets here or the Titans blog, I would literally be up until like 3 in the morning doing film reviews.  The sad part was that it got maybe 20 responses on a post, but "Jamal Adams changed his font on IG" would be like a 25 page debate on the inner meanings.  This is where the film session and business collide.  If you are in the business of attracting traffic, you always sway to the side of uncertainty.  "Hey guys, these are the quality traits that I'm seeing, but they are so close though, what do you guys think?".  If people uniformly came out and said 1. Trevor 2. Fields. 3. Wilson.  4.  Lance. 5. Jones then people would accept it and move on.  

If everything is muddied a bit for as long as possible, then more people check in.  Hmm, they're so close together, I feel like I need to check out all the videos to see if I can solve it.  The fact of the matter is that the draft in its entirety is an inexact science.  For every Mahomes that hits, there is a Kizer that fails.  Because college isn't played on an even playing field, you can pretty much spin any guy as good/bad.  It pays to make the answer as muddled as possible, because no one cares once the draft is over on who was right or wrong.  Everyone just googles the name and watches the breakdown looking for good qualities.  

Watch all of the film breakdowns, it's rare someone goes "wtf? I wouldn't draft this kid on my high school team".  I think I saw videos about Jake Fromm being a sleeper last year.  All of them have subscribers they want to attract, or patreon they need to peddle.  I say this because I really thought about starting a JN film breakdown channel, but I just don't have time.  My issue was that I didn't want to cater to business above substance crowd that I hate in the media.  Substance doesn't sell, confusion does.  

I'm positive these are coming, already started with "league source has Wilson as QB1" news.  

- Is Lawrence QB1?  Some league source says No

- Is Fields QB1?  "Rumors around Jags say Meyer smitten with Fields

- Is Wilson this year's Mayfield? "Their rise is pretty similar"

- After Lance's pro day, one team compared him favorably to none other than Josh Allen

- Mac Jones on the whiteboard blew one team away

The main takeaway is that if a team likes a guy (aside from the No. 1 pick), they aren't leaking it to anyone.  It serves them no purpose at all.   

 

 

He reminds me a lot of Manziel, with a better arm.  Pretty hard to stop in college, and always just took shots down the field that seemed to work.  Wrong reads didn't matter, but once he got to the NFL, things weren't as easy.  Same thing with Lance, with the level of competition, wrong reads don't matter.  Those aren't defenses that can handle an NFL arm, which makes everything easier.  

If we just look at that out route pass that was questionable because the defender was right next to him.  Watch the defender on the long post route.  The receiver shows like he's going to cut outside or run a curl route, and this guy turns around to the sideline with his back to the receiver.  What is he defending?  Like what's the best case scenario there? He runs an out route with 2 yards to spare? If it's a stop and go, you just gave up side positioning.  If it's a post route (like it was), you just got burned and turned around.  If it's a curl route, you are basically running away from the play.  If it's an slant or in route, again you are running away from the play.  That's the type of competition that bothers me when looking at the film, because these guys are no match.  They have shots against guys with weak arms but not good offenses.  

Yeah, I heard this one too, kinda weird Fields was like the 8th best of all time in terms of recruiting, goes out there and plays lights out, and it's barely a blip.  Yet, Hackenberg sucked for 3 years, and we still heard about his HS recruiting.  

I think his arm is good enough for the NFL, but it's really the competition that worries me because he doesn't have to worry nearly as much about mistakes.  I think he's a pure physical scouting prospect, similar to Lance.  You pick them because you believe the physical tools mean you can develop the mental tools.  

Lots of great stuff here. 

Early Twenties I was thinking about starting a salary cap site. Then was going to blog for JI.  Felt there wouldn't be interest and was it worth the time? Jason did it right after, devoted himself and hope he's doing well with it. All of these things take so much time and once kids/wife's are around and demand every moment of our lives its super tough to do. You'd be really good if its worth your time. 

I like JT Osullivan's plan. Looks like hell break down plays on youtube while gathering followers on Twitter/Patreon. I really like that format and think people could do well when you consider payment for your time. Even breaking down 5 plays could be a 10min video. I would think this would take so much less time then blogging and pay more. 

Totally agree on all the QB articles coming out sooner than later. Sounds about right for each one of them. 

Wilson's competition certainly is something to be worried about and while he was decent as a freshman he kind of is a considered a one year wonder which does worry me. My issue is why didn't he dominate longer than that? I am a huge believer in break out age. If you're playing at BYU I would hope you do it earlier. Statistically his comps are the Tribisky, Sanchez and Joe Burrows of the world except they were really good in their limited chances while Wilson was average for 2 years then really good.

Not sure if one of you made this comment but someone said all of this talk, Deshaun talk and everything else kind of puts Darnold in a place where we either need to trade him immediately or stop pursuing other QB's if the FO thinks he is the Franchise. You don't really do this to your Franchise guy. I think right after Wentz is dealt its time to move him and focus on one of these rookie Qb's. I would think these convos get even more intense then

 

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1 hour ago, win4ever said:

Yeah, that's the factor that I think we have trouble quantifying because it's more of a mental approach.  How much can you function within a system if the defense is actually good.  Again, his level of competition was like 12th percentile for QBs in some time (I forgot the exact time frame from RW).

I think pretty much any QB drafted should sit at least half a year, because they need to adjust to the speed, and responsibilities.  I think Trevor has an advantage with pre-snap reads, but there's nothing that states a guy like Fields can't actually catch up.  I always thought it was impressive he knew the OSU system right after transferring from UGA because I don't think he had to wait out the mandatory year.  

We look at someone like Lamar Jackson (admittedly more athletic, who can get by even though he literally can't seem to make the outside pass.  Having the ability to run, avoid sacks or gain yards goes a long way because defenses can't match up, without guessing.  In terms of Jackson, teams dare him to throw that outside pass, but for a guy like Mahomes, Wilson it's much harder.  

I like Wilson's ability to push the ball down field, but I worry about how the lack of defense might cause the issue.  There was one play on some other film, where he's staring down this wide receiver (in an immaculate pocket) and the CB is playing 5 yards off.  I'm not even sure what the CB is doing, literally just running away from the receiver.  He throws a pass that's easily short to function as a back shoulder pass, and the WR comes back to catch it.  That kind of throw worries me, because he didn't learn to get off that read, he had time to make adjustments like a scramble drill.  I don't think he's going to translate quickly, because while he may have a better understanding in terms of the process, I think the speed is going to be a major adjustment.  

I disagree, but I'm not an expert and have been wrong before.  I'm not going to say you are wrong, because we don't know for sure, so I'll just say my opinion. 

Just my opinion:  

I don't think he throws with more anticipation, I think he makes throws down the field the other team has trouble can't match up with.  

He does throw the deep ball well, but how much of it is based on knowing it's not a 50/50 ball, but an 80/20 ball?

In terms of reports:

https://milehighsports.com/jon-gruden-says-paxton-lynchs-only-comparison-is-cam-newton/

Here's my question:  

Lets say you need a QB (and not Jacksonville), what is the reasoning behind leaking that you love Wilson?  

If you don't need a QB, what is the reasoning behind leaking why you love Wilson?  

If you legitimately like Wilson, you have no reason whatsoever to leak that you love Wilson, think he's QB1 or anything.  Like if I want Micah Parsons to drop, I'd shut up, instead of comparing him to like Luke Kuechly.  

Again, just my opinion, but I think come draft, Fields will be picked ahead.  

Fields may be chosen ahead of Wilson, but I don't really think this is posturing time quite yet.

People want to downgrade Wilson because he threw to a lot wide open receivers so did all the others. What I am looking at are his skills, release, accuracy ball placement mobility intelligence. To me Wilson is exceptional. I have seen a couple of interviews where he breaks down his plays and it is just exceptional he sounds like Peyton Manning.

I think he is the best QB prospect I have seen. In a couple years I guess we will have an idea who is right

 

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2 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Lots of great stuff here. 

Early Twenties I was thinking about starting a salary cap site. Then was going to blog for JI.  Felt there wouldn't be interest and was it worth the time? Jason did it right after, devoted himself and hope he's doing well with it. All of these things take so much time and once kids/wife's are around and demand every moment of our lives its super tough to do. You'd be really good if its worth your time. 

I like JT Osullivan's plan. Looks like hell break down plays on youtube while gathering followers on Twitter/Patreon. I really like that format and think people could do well when you consider payment for your time. Even breaking down 5 plays could be a 10min video. I would think this would take so much less time then blogging and pay more. 

Totally agree on all the QB articles coming out sooner than later. Sounds about right for each one of them. 

Wilson's competition certainly is something to be worried about and while he was decent as a freshman he kind of is a considered a one year wonder which does worry me. My issue is why didn't he dominate longer than that? I am a huge believer in break out age. If you're playing at BYU I would hope you do it earlier. Statistically his comps are the Tribisky, Sanchez and Joe Burrows of the world except they were really good in their limited chances while Wilson was average for 2 years then really good.

Not sure if one of you made this comment but someone said all of this talk, Deshaun talk and everything else kind of puts Darnold in a place where we either need to trade him immediately or stop pursuing other QB's if the FO thinks he is the Franchise. You don't really do this to your Franchise guy. I think right after Wentz is dealt its time to move him and focus on one of these rookie Qb's. I would think these convos get even more intense then

 

Wow, so much similarity.  Early 20's, I wrote for a now defunct site, thinking it could be my stepping stone into some form of journalism.  At the time, floundering in pre-med knowing I didn't want to go to med school, and just looking at different paths.  I started writing about the Yankees, right when Fangraphs was introduced and River Ave Blues were the go to Yankees blog.  I did a bunch of stuff that was unique, but the guy that owned the site thought he was legitimately competing with ESPN.  Like all he wanted was game recaps, which was fine for football, but nearly impossible for baseball unless it was a career.  I ended up incorporating things like Scouting Previews for series (later RAB did the same, I doubt they read my stuff so doubt they stole it lol), whole bunch of sabermetrics, even incorporated a Yankees based fantasy outlook.  The owner wouldn't let go of the game recap idea, and after awhile just quit.  

I actually wanted to write for JI as well, and I think I signed up right when it got sold to Scout, and just came here.   I did the film reviews for awhile, but by then I was married, had a major accident, and went into real estate.  I just got tired of the effort to be honest, those All 22 tapes would come on at like Monday night after a Sunday game, and it took me like 4-5 hours to break it down, because you had to watch each play a bunch of times to notice things.  Lol, I actually applied for Jason's site for some job because I was finishing up my accounting degree.  He said something about how it'd be great to work with a Jets fan, asked me three sample questions about the salary cap, and never heard from him again lol.  I was pretty sure I was right about them, but I think he took a break for 6 months or something.  

I agree with you, now that I have a kid to go along with the wife, and focusing more on real estate, it's just hard to find the timing.  I thought about doing like a YouTube channel for the Jets, but there's a bunch of them, and I don't have the consistent time to do it.  I'd rather just play around with my toddler when I'm home.  Furthermore, I have a major problem with being concise, as my articles would go on forever.  My issue was that if you knew what Cover 3 Zone meant, you aren't reading my writing, you could watch the film yourself.  So I would try to break it down into what some guy is supposed to do, which took much longer to explain.

I think his model and Brett Kollman's model really work well because the videos are edited really well, and they have a wide audience radar.  That'd be the ideal career, but have to wait until I'm older and more settled in life.  

It's not even that his one big year is this year, it also happens to be a COVID year to boot.  I know a university like Alabama, football comes first, second, and third, so the major places will still bend the rules for COVID.  How much did a team like say Navy or Troy lose in prep times?

I'm going to include a couple of plays from Navy here:

Second Play (I uploaded it wrong):  Miss on deep throw, all 11 defenders on screen to begin. 

First of all, this is the wrong read to begin with.  The safety comes down to the box indicating blitz, which also should mean the outside receiver to the left has a one on one match up, with a cornerback that has no help over the top.  A curl route, back shoulder pass or anything in breaking in nearly impossible to defend.  The CB has to protect over the top, and he's running with his back to the receiver.  They are playing zone to the left, press man cover to the right.  Therefore, he's looking at three defenders for his two receivers, and a linebacker that waiting on his delayed release TE.  

Notice how Wilson has the delayed release TE pass open for the first down, but passes on it.  We can't see the other receivers, but I presume they were covered because the defense had an extra defender for them.  Wilson passes them up, resets and throws this right to the CB.  If the WR doesn't play center fielder here and knock it away, that's an easy completion.  Once the safety shows blitz, the WR adjusted to a shorter route, but Wilson didn't adjust, and we have the misfire.  

However, that's not even my biggest gripe with the play.  Watch the blitzing linebacker on this play, he should be a free runner at the QB.  Instead, he literally runs into his own guy, and gets tackled to the ground by a tackle who is holding up another defender.  So the tackle on this play not only defended the defensive end, he threw the defensive end in the way of the blitzing LB and tackled him as well.  If we assume that's a free runner, there's a very good chance the guy either gets to Wilson, or is very close.  As he runs into his own guy, Wilson takes two hops before throwing this ball as he resets in the pocket.  This is what makes me question his opponents, because we saw Fields get overload blitzes and the guys were getting through.  

Clip 1:  I'm not going to talk about most of the play here because I can't see down the field.  Can someone tell me what the linebacker (48?) is doing on this?  He was in perfect position to defend this route, and literally ran away from his guy.  

 

wilson navy 2.gif

Wilson Navy 1.gif

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Fields may be chosen ahead of Wilson, but I don't really think this is posturing time quite yet.

People want to downgrade Wilson because he threw to a lot wide open receivers so did all the others. What I am looking at are his skills, release, accuracy ball placement mobility intelligence. To me Wilson is exceptional. I have seen a couple of interviews where he breaks down his plays and it is just exceptional he sounds like Peyton Manning.

I think he is the best QB prospect I have seen. In a couple years I guess we will have an idea who is right

 

I'm not downgrading him because he threw to open receivers, as you said, they all did.  I'm downgrading him because the defenders around those receivers weren't nearly as good as the ones faced by Fields/Lawrence/Jones/Trask.  I downgrade Lance for the exact same thing.  

He release is better than Fields, but I don't see evidence for anything else being better.  I can't decipher intelligence from the tape, so I can't say anything about that.  I think Fields has him beat on accuracy and mobility.   My main concern is, if he faced better competition, how would he read the field?  

If we pick him, I hope you are right.  I disagree, but he's a top 10 prospect, and basically all depends on how we develop a QB.  I think Fields is better, but I respect your opinion.  In the end, neither of our opinions actually matter so I just hope we pick the best guy.  

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12 hours ago, win4ever said:

I'm not downgrading him because he threw to open receivers, as you said, they all did.  I'm downgrading him because the defenders around those receivers weren't nearly as good as the ones faced by Fields/Lawrence/Jones/Trask.  I downgrade Lance for the exact same thing.  

He release is better than Fields, but I don't see evidence for anything else being better.  I can't decipher intelligence from the tape, so I can't say anything about that.  I think Fields has him beat on accuracy and mobility.   My main concern is, if he faced better competition, how would he read the field?  

If we pick him, I hope you are right.  I disagree, but he's a top 10 prospect, and basically all depends on how we develop a QB.  I think Fields is better, but I respect your opinion.  In the end, neither of our opinions actually matter so I just hope we pick the best guy.  

The better competition thing is a dual edged sword. Fields may be throwing against better defenders but he was also throwing to a future first round WR in Olave and a third of his completions were to him. Wilson is throwing to future Home Depot employees. 

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29 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

The better competition thing is a dual edged sword. Fields may be throwing against better defenders but he was also throwing to a future first round WR in Olave and a third of his completions were to him. Wilson is throwing to future Home Depot employees. 

Dax Milne declared for the draft, and invited to the combine.  

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/college-football/nfl-draft/player/61893/dax-milne

Currently projected to be a mid round prospect.  

Gunner Romney was on the Belitnikoff watch list as well:  He's returning to school, but I'd presume at least a mid round pick, if not better because he projects better than mline.

https://www.si.com/college/byu/news/byu-footballs-gunner-romney-added-to-biletnikoff-award-watch-list

Ohio State has better receivers, but pretty sure BYU's receivers were a bigger upgrade over their DBs, than Ohio State vs their CBs.  

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21 hours ago, win4ever said:

Wow, so much similarity.  Early 20's, I wrote for a now defunct site, thinking it could be my stepping stone into some form of journalism.  At the time, floundering in pre-med knowing I didn't want to go to med school, and just looking at different paths.  I started writing about the Yankees, right when Fangraphs was introduced and River Ave Blues were the go to Yankees blog.  I did a bunch of stuff that was unique, but the guy that owned the site thought he was legitimately competing with ESPN.  Like all he wanted was game recaps, which was fine for football, but nearly impossible for baseball unless it was a career.  I ended up incorporating things like Scouting Previews for series (later RAB did the same, I doubt they read my stuff so doubt they stole it lol), whole bunch of sabermetrics, even incorporated a Yankees based fantasy outlook.  The owner wouldn't let go of the game recap idea, and after awhile just quit.  

 

For sure. I was Pre med at the time as well. Also I am a numbers/math person that spent hundreds of hours on Fangraphs. In Baseball I could nail prospects at a ridiculously high rate - Just much easier to project.(Anyone see that Tati's contract? Wow. )  The reason I am attracted to PFF is the numbers although I fully understand football is a very different animal with so many different variables it is so much harder to project. In fact it kind of led me the wrong way with Wilson over Fields (PFF rankings/Articles). 

You clearly write well and know what you're talking about. Sounds like you did a-lot of work already. Love Brett Kollman. Edited so well even if you don't agree with everything he says. I have toddlers too. Work is considered "My free time" now so I can fully appreciate the no free time. Just my opinion here but if you start something the old article format is not the way to go. So time consuming. Videos/Twitter is the way. Theres a guy on Youtube named "Nick Ercolono" that does Fantasy Football. He's nothing special but hes funny sometimes and my commute to work is long so Ill listen sometimes. I think he made like 250k he said on the videos/twitter. Again - Nothing special. No editing. Nothing. Might be a decent outlet to consider once the kids go to bed. 

Regarding Wilson/Fields

Thanks for breaking down the plays. You guys def did it. I fully have Fields over Wilson now. 

Not only that but I keep seeing this Tribisky comp for Wilson and its making me absolutely Nauseas. I think Paradis or Maury said the Tribisky comp first and now I can't look at him the same. 

Then today Hayden Winks (Who you guys need to Follow) put out this:

That stat on the bottom he put out about QB Rank and Strength of schedule just hit me. What the hell was I thinking? Hate to 180 but I gotta say I was ok with Wilson once his red flags were cleared (Shoulder/Personal red flag). But now I think I want no part of this kid. Tribisky is all I am thinking here thats reckless with his body. 

On the main board today someone posted the "Fields is dropping down draft boards. My two thoughts for you guys in this thread:

* I immediately wanted to make some defensive comment on Fields like you guys have been doing lol. 

*I really hope you guys are right about this just being clickbait. Bc I really hope we don't pass on Fields now. I can't ignore being better for a longer period of time against better competition. 

 

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2 hours ago, Shockwave said:

For sure. I was Pre med at the time as well. Also I am a numbers/math person that spent hundreds of hours on Fangraphs. In Baseball I could nail prospects at a ridiculously high rate - Just much easier to project.(Anyone see that Tati's contract? Wow. )  The reason I am attracted to PFF is the numbers although I fully understand football is a very different animal with so many different variables it is so much harder to project. In fact it kind of led me the wrong way with Wilson over Fields (PFF rankings/Articles). 

You clearly write well and know what you're talking about. Sounds like you did a-lot of work already. Love Brett Kollman. Edited so well even if you don't agree with everything he says. I have toddlers too. Work is considered "My free time" now so I can fully appreciate the no free time. Just my opinion here but if you start something the old article format is not the way to go. So time consuming. Videos/Twitter is the way. Theres a guy on Youtube named "Nick Ercolono" that does Fantasy Football. He's nothing special but hes funny sometimes and my commute to work is long so Ill listen sometimes. I think he made like 250k he said on the videos/twitter. Again - Nothing special. No editing. Nothing. Might be a decent outlet to consider once the kids go to bed. 

Regarding Wilson/Fields

Thanks for breaking down the plays. You guys def did it. I fully have Fields over Wilson now. 

Not only that but I keep seeing this Tribisky comp for Wilson and its making me absolutely Nauseas. I think Paradis or Maury said the Tribisky comp first and now I can't look at him the same. 

Then today Hayden Winks (Who you guys need to Follow) put out this:

That stat on the bottom he put out about QB Rank and Strength of schedule just hit me. What the hell was I thinking? Hate to 180 but I gotta say I was ok with Wilson once his red flags were cleared (Shoulder/Personal red flag). But now I think I want no part of this kid. Tribisky is all I am thinking here thats reckless with his body. 

On the main board today someone posted the "Fields is dropping down draft boards. My two thoughts for you guys in this thread:

* I immediately wanted to make some defensive comment on Fields like you guys have been doing lol. 

*I really hope you guys are right about this just being clickbait. Bc I really hope we don't pass on Fields now. I can't ignore being better for a longer period of time against better competition. 

 

Ah so much in common, I loved fangraphs and following prospects allowed me to clean up in dynasty leagues for a long time.  I used to post on RotoWorld forums all the time for fantasy as well.  Probably would have better if I focused more time on pre-med lol.  Tatis contract is ridiculous because they didn't even have to do anything until his arbitration would have gone through, not sure why they jumped the gun.  Yeah I wanted to get into the numbers in football, but never got it correlated for me, too many variables.  The one thing I'm looking forward to are the next gen stats, mainly for receivers.  I'd love to see the separation per route or some form of separation vs. initial cushion type stat.  

I think the only way to get back in is to start a YouTube channel because writing just takes too long, and no one reads long articles.  Yeah, that guy has been wrong enough to create the Kollman curse, but still love his videos.  Yeah, same for me, I only have about 2-3 hours after my toddler sleeps to complete some work.  Most of the time, I write out emails and market reports at 1 am, then time it to send to people at 8 am so they think I got up in the morning to be productive.  Yeah, at some point in the next year or two, might look into it, something more Jets focused and the draft.  But it's finding the time, I basically have no free time to do anything.  I don't even remember the last time I watched a full movie I wanted to see in one go, lol.  

I can see the Tribusky comps, and honestly a ton of draft reporting sites had Tribusky as the QB1 that year.  My main issue with Wilson is just the risk, not only on the field, but with injuries.   The Wilson/Fields to Trubisky/Watson comparion is eerily similar.  Everyone hated on Watson because Clemson QBs hadn't done anything at the pro level (with Boyd being a prime example), and he had interceptions in his last year of college, yet had years of high level production.  Trubisky was the more pro-ready guy, fits into the system, and quick processing, yet only one breakout year.  

Wilson's competition was trash.  I watched his throws from the Coastal Carolina game, and he was fairly mediocre.  He made about 4-5 really nice throws, but also a lot of Geno-ish throws where as soon as pressure ramped up, he folded.  His TD was mainly the defender thinking the WR stepped out of bounds and just letting him run by.  Although it's cancelled out by his interception, which was just a Hail Mary at the end of the half.  He got like 90 yards on the final drive, one which Coastal Carolina went into some form of prevent defense almost at times.  So at like the 1 minute mark of the 4th quarter, he had about 155 yards or so of passing.  I really wish there was all 22 tape of this available to download, because this was a good defense.  I wanted to see some of his reads down the field.  

To me, he's a physical scouting draft pick.  You pick him because you love that arm.  Same with Lance, you pick him if you love the athleticism, and you think you can fit your system around them.  

I think it's going to roll around at some point, because I don't think anyone is really going to be leaking anything right now if they love a prospect.  Almost every team goes out of their way to hide their love for a prospect.  I'd be completely shocked if Wilson is the No. 2 QB off the board.  I wouldn't be shocked if he's the Jets QB after we trade down.  

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3 hours ago, Shockwave said:

 

 

"To me he(Wilson) is clearly the 2nd best QB" and Fields could benefit from a year on the bench and" needs refinement". 

I think Jeremiah never linked us with Becton last year right?

 

 

He had Becton as the No. 1 OT last year I believe.  

However, he also had Tua AND Jordan Love ahead of Herbert last year (Burrow was QB1).  And Jake Fromm in his top 50 pre-combine.  

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2020-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-2-0-0ap3000001102767

 

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7 hours ago, Shockwave said:

 

 

"To me he(Wilson) is clearly the 2nd best QB" and Fields could benefit from a year on the bench and" needs refinement". 

I think Jeremiah never linked us with Becton last year right?

 

 

He was the first to do so and the first to call Becton a top pick.

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I like Jeremiah, but remember this doozy?

"The team is sitting at No. 1 overall and with every prospect on the board. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah knows who he would select if he were in the position of General Manager John Dorsey. He has given USC quarterback Sam Darnold the highest grade over the past three years.

I’m taking the quarterback I feel most confident in, and to me that’s Sam Darnold from USC. He’d be my first pick … I think he is going to start for a long time and you can win a bunch of games with him. I gave him the same grade that I gave Carson Wentz, so he would be tied at the top for me. He is as good as any of the quarterbacks in the last three drafts," Jeremiah said via ClevelandBrowns.com."

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Article/NFL-Combine-Daniel-Jeremiah-Sam-Darnold-best-quarterback-of-last-three-years-115724885/

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On 2/13/2021 at 7:56 PM, Beerfish said:

To me this is not as outrageous as it looks.

Mac Jones is underrated.

Lawrence is overrated.

The thing about Jones is he had really easy throwing to smith and waddle.  Smith is a football vacuum cleaner.  Of course he did beat the much vaunted Osu defense.

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17 minutes ago, rangerous said:

The thing about Jones is he had really easy throwing to smith and waddle.  Smith is a football vacuum cleaner.  Of course he did beat the much vaunted Osu defense.

But he put the ball where it needed to be.  If you watch the Bama games to see smith and harris and waddle etc play and you notice jones puts it here it needs to be the vast majority of the time.  He has a nice touch on passes to backs and short throws, can make most long throws and though not super mobile is mobile enough in the pocket and has good pocket presence.

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