Offense vs. Defense: where does data tell you to invest?

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Yup football has officially become basketball in terms of strategy ... go for the 3pt shooters.

But

When was the last time a defensive head coach not named belichik established an offense capable of 30pts a game?

30 points per game?  There are 2 of those:  Mike Vrabel and Sean McDermott.  The Titans averaged 30.7 points per game in 2020, while the Bills averaged 31.3 ppg the same season.

And Mike Tomlin (DC prior to becoming a HC) got the Steelers pretty close.  Since 2014, the Steelers offense has averaged 26+ points per game in a season 4 times (2014, 2015, 2018, 2020).  

Meanwhile, the Seahawks averaged 28.7 points per game in 2020 under Pete Carroll.

I doubt Tomlin and Carroll are what you're looking for, however, since the credit for those offenses go to future HOF QB's rather than coaching.

[NIGHT STALKER]

Invest in O and D lines and they make everyone else better...guaranteed.  You know it, IT ALL STARTS UP FRONT!  From the beginning of time when football in America was first played, those two lines dictate everyone else.

[peebag]

17 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I've been calling to favor offense for some time but in reality, just draft good players for gods sakes and have a good plan of attacking problem areas.

why, that's just preposterous. /s

[peebag]

1 minute ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

Invest in O and D lines and they make everyone else better...guaranteed.  You know it, IT ALL STARTS UP FRONT!  From the beginning of time when football in America was first played, those two lines dictate everyone else.

I don't know why that's so hard for people to understand.

[Ex-Rex]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:46 PM, Peace Frog said:

Agree.  Invest in offensive weapons and OLine and let Saleh scheme to an average defense.  

Get Wilson some weapons to succeed. The defense will benefit when offense isn't three and out all day long.

[Peace Frog]

Just now, Ex-Rex said:

Get Wilson some weapons to succeed. The defense will benefit when offense isn't three and out all day long.

You mean weapons that can CATCH.  Given how often we ran on 1st and 2nd down, all those drops on 3rd down made for a LOT of 3 and outs.  

[Obrien2Toon]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:46 PM, Peace Frog said:

Agree.  Invest in offensive weapons and OLine and let Saleh scheme to an average defense.  

This was the same thing with Rex

you’re supposed to be a defensive genius, why do you need first rounders at every defensive position 

[greenwichjetfan]

Deductive reasoning concludes that if both of the below points are true, then do everything in your power to ensure your QB succeeds because hat is the path of least resistance to team success. 

- the QB is the most important position in team sports and continues to be made more important by rule changes, better talent at the position, and enhanced playbooks/playcalls for more immediate success
- chances of scoring points go up with the ball in the QB's hands rather than the QB on the sidelines

[Peace Frog]

14 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

This was the same thing with Rex

you’re supposed to be a defensive genius, why do you need first rounders at every defensive position 

I also think it’s easier to scheme defense. 

Offense takes real skill players. 

[Biggs]

51 minutes ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

Invest in O and D lines and they make everyone else better...guaranteed.  You know it, IT ALL STARTS UP FRONT!  From the beginning of time when football in America was first played, those two lines dictate everyone else.

The Bengals are in the AFC finals.  They drafted Chase. Detroit drafted Sewell.  The Bengals OL may be the reason they don't go to the SB.  If they drafted Sewell they don't sniff the playoffs. 

[Hal N of Provo]

they can go D for the first 3 picks, and the 1st TE for the forth (38), but only if they invest in the offense before the draft.    

If they sign a dominate WR in free agency, resign Moses, and bring in a RG, and a decent TE they can go for depth on offense.  If they see great value in the draft at positions of need on offense, they need to take them anyway.  
 

A good EDGE LB and Safety from the draft with the free agent signings above would be a competitive team next season.   The kind of time that discovers where the final holes are before a real push the next season.  

[Alka]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:43 PM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Would you rather have:  

1. excellent offense & mediocre defense

2. avg offense & avg defense

3. excellent defense & mediocre offense

For the stats below, I’ll define average as the midpoint or median of 32 teams, excellent as the 75th percentile and mediocre as the 25th percentile.  So we strip out the margins on the distribution curve.  Tough with the salary cap to be excellent in both, which would be the optimal scenario.  Jets are also so from this that it’s not worth charting.  
 

2021 (1, 2, 3 match above)

1. 27.0 points for to 25.5 points against

2. 23.0 to 22.0 

3. 19.1 to 21.4

* The biggest positive point differential is to have an excellent offense and mediocre defense.  A mediocre offense scores less points than an excellent defense gives up

2020:

1. 28.7 to 27.9

2. 24.7 to 23.9

3. 20.9 to 22.2

2019

1. 25.4 to 26.2

2. 22.6 to 22.6

3. 19.1 to 19.4

2018

1. 26.8 to 26.4

2. 23.0 to 22.5

3. 20.2 to 20.6

2017

1. 25.4 to 23.9

2. 21.2 to 22.0

3. 18.4 to 19.7

What the hell does this mean?  

- In all 5 years, a mediocre offense does not score enough points to win even if you have an excellent defense.

- So there is an advantage to invest in Offense over Defense when looking to achieve a competitive advantage.

- However, the avg offense with an avg defense does just as well in point differential as an excellent offense with a mediocre defense.

- The slant to offense re-emerges when you look at dominant offense versus dominant defense, which I did not list here.  Assume dominant is top 3 teams, there is more upside to an offense and only so much a defense can cut points.  You see this in the comparison with the midpoint.  A dominant offense might score 7 points per game over an avg one while a dominant defense only shaves 4 points off an avg one.

Strategically this tells me the best teams are the ones with dominant offenses and a good enough defense.  If the Jets think there’s a chance getting there, they might invest their go forward capital to get there.

If they think that is not realistic, then it seems fairly neutral to invest in offense or defense to achieve either 1 or 2 above.

I appreciate your hard work developing this thread.  I made a thread a couple days ago making my case to focus more on the offense than the defense, with the understanding that both are important, but that you need a dynamic offense to be able to compete.

I don't know if you developed this thread as an offshoot to mine or not, but I think it is worth discussing.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

7 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

Opportunistic defense is the perfect wording. Bend but don't break defense that can get some turnovers is what I'd like to see. I don't care how many yards are given up between the 20s.

Agree on first part but don't love bend but don't break since they often don't force turnovers and bleed the clock, so much at times the offense can't get into a rhythm.  There was 1 game this hear Zack led offense to 3 straight TDs in first half and then didn't get the ball back for an hour counting half time.  Offense lost its momentum.

But in concept, I agree it's all about points.   

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 hours ago, Alka said:

I appreciate your hard work developing this thread.  I made a thread a couple days ago making my case to focus more on the offense than the defense, with the understanding that both are important, but that you need a dynamic offense to be able to compete.

I don't know if you developed this thread as an offshoot to mine or not, but I think it is worth discussing.

Thanks Alka.  Not intentionally but possibly subconsciously between all the threads mentioning offense versus defense.  I thought looking at it from a statistical data point over 5 years would shed some light on which way to go. 

I think the way we are both examining this is philosophy & strategy first before player selection.  My own philosophy is to focus on building clear competitive advantages while minimizing weaknesses.  Lots of business books tell you to do just that.

So this year I'd rather build up the offense so we can continue to develop a franchise QB, the most impactful position of them all.  And at the same time, move the defense from God awful to mediocre starting with shoring up the run and safety outlets.  I just don't think you can rush the passer if you can't stop the run or cover the RB or TEs (things we were HORRENDOUS at).  Some are focusing on drafting Edge, my focus is pinning ears back by creating clear passing downs and making the QB hold the ball a lot longer.  Bruce Smith would find it hard to generate 10+ sacks with the mess we saw this year.  I also don't want to reach for an edge as I'm not a believer in Karlaftis and Ojabo (fit).     

[jetsons]

Offense vs. Defense: where does data tell you to invest?...

 

 

BOTH

[Dunnie]

30 points per game?  There are 2 of those:  Mike Vrabel and Sean McDermott.  The Titans averaged 30.7 points per game in 2020, while the Bills averaged 31.3 ppg the same season.
And Mike Tomlin (DC prior to becoming a HC) got the Steelers pretty close.  Since 2014, the Steelers offense has averaged 26+ points per game in a season 4 times (2014, 2015, 2018, 2020).  
Meanwhile, the Seahawks averaged 28.7 points per game in 2020 under Pete Carroll.
I doubt Tomlin and Carroll are what you're looking for, however, since the credit for those offenses go to future HOF QB's rather than coaching.

Right .. so 2

.... Richard Todd, Ken OBrien, Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez, Genope, Sam Darnold ...

[jeremy2020]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:01 PM, Hal N of Provo said:

But you have to give him a freak MLB and Edge to do his thing.  

So you're saying draft a DT and Safety in the 1st round?

[RedBeardedSavage]

On 1/24/2022 at 2:54 PM, chirorob said:

Offense and pass rushers.   Just keep doing that.

The data agrees. 

 

[Hal N of Provo]

1 hour ago, jeremy2020 said:

So you're saying draft a DT and Safety in the 1st round?

Did you not watch the playoffs?  Long snapper and a punter 

[Hal N of Provo]

On 1/24/2022 at 7:47 PM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I think that’s a really good point and why things aren’t so black and white.  I’m hoping for 2 solid LBs; 1 in FA and the other in the 2nd round.

Edge is tough.  Do you reach for Karlaftis or bank on Ojabo being able to play 4-3 edge?  I just don’t see amazing options here unless someone becomes available via trade or is this year’s Hendrickson in FA.  Think we should invest a 2nd rounder here as well.  I just don’t want to reach in the first.

what’s your plan?

 

I don’t know if this is the year to get the edge or LB.  
 

I don’t love banking on a guy to get the QB who had 4.5 sacks in college.  

there are lots of interesting EDGEs in the draft.   I might try one in the 2nd and one late.  
 

[Alka]

16 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Thanks Alka.  Not intentionally but possibly subconsciously between all the threads mentioning offense versus defense.  I thought looking at it from a statistical data point over 5 years would shed some light on which way to go. 

I think the way we are both examining this is philosophy & strategy first before player selection.  My own philosophy is to focus on building clear competitive advantages while minimizing weaknesses.  Lots of business books tell you to do just that.

So this year I'd rather build up the offense so we can continue to develop a franchise QB, the most impactful position of them all.  And at the same time, move the defense from God awful to mediocre starting with shoring up the run and safety outlets.  I just don't think you can rush the passer if you can't stop the run or cover the RB or TEs (things we were HORRENDOUS at).  Some are focusing on drafting Edge, my focus is pinning ears back by creating clear passing downs and making the QB hold the ball a lot longer.  Bruce Smith would find it hard to generate 10+ sacks with the mess we saw this year.  I also don't want to reach for an edge as I'm not a believer in Karlaftis and Ojabo (fit).     

I think we are in basic agreement on this.  Another reason to build up the offense is so the Jets can form an identity.  If you can't focus on offense or defense, then with a mediocre team, you don't really establish a true identity.  Should an opposing team worry about the offense?  The defense?  If both are mediocre, then no need to truly worry about how you are going to stop the team.  

I want the Jets to be outstanding in one phase of the team, so the Jets can give opposing teams something to think about.  In the Jets building, by having at least 1 outstanding unit, an identity can start to build, and help establish positive feelings amongst the players who play for the team, and who might want to come to the Jets via free agency.