Rodgers to the Jets - Support it, or Oppose it?

[Biggs]

50 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Correct and this is why the Jets are twisting in the wind.  I keep hearing people voice this totally hollow bluff re the packers, "oh we will just tell them to stuff it and if we have to we will go with zac! or some other scrub who is available! We have all the leverage!  lol no we don't.  At this point it is Rodgers or bust for the Jets no chance it ends up any other way. 

And if we do overpay to get him the narrative will not be the jets blew this, it will be "oh well you gotta pay for a hall of famer!"

There's overpaying and there's being raped.  You can tell by the reaction of the Jets players that getting Rodgers is already having an impact on the entire team.  Guys are actually pumped up to play football.  They are working hard and are likely going to come in a very united team.  Last year the loss in value by having a divided locker and a HC without the experience to handle it cost us games.  

We should get the deal done and if it costs us a reasonable amount more than hard ball value, I really don't see the downside.

The real downside is not the value of the deal but the performance of Rodgers because of age or not really being all in.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 minute ago, johnnysd said:

There is no upside with Rodgers just a single roll of the roulette wheel with all of our money on 12

A Lombardi is pretty good upside

[shawn306]

It's an upgrade. Can't make it more simple than that.

Does it get them to the Super Bowl ? Probably not. 

Does it get them to the playoffs ? Yes if they stay healthy. 

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, hotrodcharlie said:

To those that support it, how do you see it ending?

Presuming the deal gets done, and doesn't cost too much draft compensation-wise?  i.e. NOT two #1's?

There are a metric ton of variables (starting with health), but presuming for this question we mostly stay healthy and Rodgers stays healthy enough?

-Rodgers plays pretty well in 2023, closer to his 2021 production levels as opposed to his 2022 levels.  This would be close to the all-time best season for a Jets QB, on par with Fitzy in 2015 stats-wise.

-Jets win 10 or more games.  Make playoffs, end 12 year streak of futility.

-Rodgers considers retirement again in 2024 offseason.  He ultimately decides to play/get paid, but it's a rough offseason.

-Jets do ok, depending on how JD builds the roster/has success in the drafts in 2023 and 2024.  We're competative, and Rodgers may step back some, but it still average at worst at QB production.

-Rodgers retires or forces his way out after the 2024 season, we eat alot of painful cap costs, Zach Wilson (who was extended on the cheap) takes over as the starter, because JD still believes in him.

-Falls apart under Zach in 2026.  Coach fired, JD retained, to hire another Coach and draft another QB.  JD on short leash, losing season again and he's fired.  

I don't know, it's all so hard to see/predict.

All I know is that good QB play shouldn't make this team worse, and Rodgers, while pricey, shouldn't stop a good GM from drafting well and filling the roster with incremental improvements as time goes on.

[JetPotato]

20 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

So last year's team wins 12-13 with Rodgers per the analysis.

For context, the Jets have only had one 12-win season and zero 13-win seasons in the franchise's entire existence.  

Yeah. But what about the FUTURE???

Idiots. 

There's no future anywhere, anytime, without a franchise QB. How many decades of football do you have to watch for that to sink in?

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

20 hours ago, Warfish said:

Doesn't matter what your reason is, do you support Rodgers to the Jets, or do you oppose Rodgers to the Jets.

Feel free to expand in the comments, but the poll is a direct, simple "Yes or No" only.

It's not my money .

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

A Lombardi is pretty good upside

What are people even talking about lol.

"No upside".  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here....

[sec101row23]

At this point, why bother opposing this?   Just go with it and see where it leads.   The alternative is a season of Zach and watching him throw up all over himself.   

[Biggs]

1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

We are not that type of team and right now we have already lost enough on the roster that we are a worse team than we were last year.

https://theathletic.com/4308858/2023/03/15/aaron-rodgers-jets-offense-analysis/

Quote

The Jets finished last season ranked 30th in offensive EPA (expected points added), per TruMedia, while ranking third in combined EPA on defense and special teams (DST). They missed the playoffs with a 7-10 record (.411), an outcome that was disappointing, but not surprising.

Since divisional realignment in 2002, the 39 teams with bottom-five offenses and top-10 DST have won 42 percent of the time, about the same as the Jets’ 41 percent win rate last season. Thirty-three of the 39 missed the playoffs. Zero reached the Super Bowl. This was the Jets’ plight.

The 69 teams since 2002 fitting this general profile — 11th to 20th on offense, top 10 on DST — reached the playoffs 74 percent of the time. They reached the championship round or Super Bowl 24 percent of the time.

These were contending teams, even without being special on offense.

Whatever the case, the Jets field a top-10 offense by EPA to go along with their top-10 DST.

The 57 teams since 2002 fitting this profile reached the playoffs 95 percent of the time. A quarter of them reached the Super Bowl. Eight teams won it all, including the 2020 Buccaneers with Brady.

Why not the Jets with Rodgers?

I would have agreed with you prior to reading this article.  It's pretty obvious with Rodgers healthy and somewhat engaged the Jets should contend for the playoffs and have a shot to advance.

[JetPotato]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What are people even talking about lol.

"No upside".  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here....

This is all about personal perspective. 

For them, upside is having something to whine about.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

This is all about personal perspective. 

For them, upside is having something to whine about.

Johnny thinks Zach Wilson is good so that's a big part of it too.

Zach still has alllllll the upside!!!!

[sec101row23]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Johnny thinks Zach Wilson is good so that's a big part of it too.

Zach still has alllllll the upside!!!!

No doubt.   If you declared someone the BEST QB prospect you have ever seen coming out of college, you would be clinging to “upside” as well.   Lol..

[David Harris]

38 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

So last year's team wins 12-13 with Rodgers per the analysis.

For context, the Jets have only had one 12-win season and zero 13-win seasons in the franchise's entire existence.  

Yes.  That’s what an elite QB does to a team that is very good everywhere else.

Understood.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, David Harris said:

Yes.  That’s what an elite QB does to a team that is very good everywhere else.

Understood.

Can you explain that to some of the simpletons in this thread please?  

[hotrodcharlie]

It is gonna cost us Quinnen Williams no? How can he get a long term big money contract with Rodgers on the books?

[hotrodcharlie]

30 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Presuming the deal gets done, and doesn't cost too much draft compensation-wise?  i.e. NOT two #1's?

There are a metric ton of variables (starting with health), but presuming for this question we mostly stay healthy and Rodgers stays healthy enough?

-Rodgers plays pretty well in 2023, closer to his 2021 production levels as opposed to his 2022 levels.  This would be close to the all-time best season for a Jets QB, on par with Fitzy in 2015 stats-wise.

-Jets win 10 or more games.  Make playoffs, end 12 year streak of futility.

-Rodgers considers retirement again in 2024 offseason.  He ultimately decides to play/get paid, but it's a rough offseason.

-Jets do ok, depending on how JD builds the roster/has success in the drafts in 2023 and 2024.  We're competative, and Rodgers may step back some, but it still average at worst at QB production.

-Rodgers retires or forces his way out after the 2024 season, we eat alot of painful cap costs, Zach Wilson (who was extended on the cheap) takes over as the starter, because JD still believes in him.

-Falls apart under Zach in 2026.  Coach fired, JD retained, to hire another Coach and draft another QB.  JD on short leash, losing season again and he's fired.  

I don't know, it's all so hard to see/predict.

All I know is that good QB play shouldn't make this team worse, and Rodgers, while pricey, shouldn't stop a good GM from drafting well and filling the roster with incremental improvements as time goes on.

Thanks you were the only one with a real answer 

[ND Jets12]

He’s made it perfectly clear he doesn’t want to be Packer. AND they don’t want him?  They absolutely have leverage and not US- they’ll hold out and maybe even keep his Ass on the roster and start Love - then we’ve got some news. I hope I’m wrong but this ain’t happening for a couple/few months yet. 

[the Claw]

I’m absolutely amazed at the optimism. This whole situation screams “4-0 start, Rogers reinjures his thumb, the defense isn’t as good as everyone thought and they end up at 8-9 get knocked out of playoff contention by Mike White, Rogers retires, JD gets fired, Saleh gets fired, Woody hires Bienemy while some scout from the Giants tries his hand at being a GM for two years before all the decent players they have move on to other teams.”  It’s gonna be great.

 

And I actually like Rogers as a qb. 

[hotrodcharlie]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

https://theathletic.com/4308858/2023/03/15/aaron-rodgers-jets-offense-analysis/

I would have agreed with you prior to reading this article.  It's pretty obvious with Rodgers healthy and somewhat engaged the Jets should contend for the playoffs and have a shot to advance.

I think last year the Jets got a lot of luck.

In the winning streak early in the year they were facing backup QBs seemingly every week. Couple that with some losses on the defensive line and 1 more year older for guys like CJ Mosley, I dont think we can assume this is a slam dunk top 10 defense in 2023. Would love to be wrong though 

[Biggs]

7 minutes ago, hotrodcharlie said:

I think last year the Jets got a lot of luck.

In the winning streak early in the year they were facing backup QBs seemingly every week. Couple that with some losses on the defensive line and 1 more year older for guys like CJ Mosley, I dont think we can assume this is a slam dunk top 10 defense in 2023. Would love to be wrong though 

The D got very little help from the O.  I think the Jets D will not be as good but still top 10.  Very good CB and very good in the middle of the line.  They can fill in for the losses and field a top 10 D.  

[David Harris]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Can you explain that to some of the simpletons in this thread please?  

The top 3 teams last year had:

Chiefs - Mahomes

Eagles - Hurts

Bills - Allen

The rest of the 12 Win teams had adequate to excellent QB play.

Jets had a ton of games that would've been won with good QB play, more with elite QB play.

[Warfish]

33 minutes ago, the Claw said:

....the defense isn’t as good as everyone thought.....

Be assured, the Jets Defense IS NOT as good as everyone thinks.

It's solid, it is NOT elite/top 10.

Our top finish in 2022 was very much about who we played, i.e. like half our games were against #2 and #3 QB's.

In reality, we're likely more of a 12-15 type Defense, before this offseason gains/losses get considered.

[the Claw]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Be assured, the Jets Defense IS NOT as good as everyone thinks.

It's solid, it is NOT elite/top 10.

Our top finish in 2022 was very much about who we played, i.e. like half our games were against #2 and #3 QB's.

In reality, we're likely more of a 12-15 type Defense, before this offseason gains/losses get considered.

Agreed, and the elite savior who everyone is creaming for put up ten points against those Jets last season. 

10. Points.

Some dude with the username “RogersThumb” is going to troll the sh*t out everyone here next offseason. 

[peebag]

1 hour ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

A Lombardi is pretty good upside

lol, like we're going to beat out KC, Phila or SF.

We're not even close.

[The Crusher]

Support it!

        -Teh Darkness

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, the Claw said:

Agreed, and the elite savior who everyone is creaming for put up ten points against those Jets last season. 

10. Points.

Some dude with the username “RogersThumb” is going to troll the sh*t out everyone here next offseason. 

Rodgers produced 64.6% comp. rate, 3,695 passing yards, 26 TD's to 12 INT's and a 91.1 QB Rating last year, starting all 17 of his teams games.

In a down year, with a thumb injury, and a pretty weak roster of O-skill players overall.

In the four seasons prior, 4,442 and 25/2, 4,002 and 26/4, 4,299 and 48/5 and 4,115 and 37/4.

For reference, Zach Wilson had a 54.5% comp rate, 1,688 passing yards, 6 TD's to 7 INT's and a 72.8 QB rating last year, playing in only 9 games due to injury and ineffectiveness.  

I don't believe in saviors. 

I DO believe in the material difference that adequate, pro-level QB performance and production make for an NFL team, especially a team that has not really had it for over a decade, at least. 

Am I expecting Rodgers to give us 4,200 and a 40/5 type season?  Nope.  Be cool if he did, but nope.

I expect something closer to 3,800 yards and 30/10.  A pretty meh year for Rodgers, career-wise.

But the difference between what we've had and that is massive, will open up the rushing game, will save the Defense a ton of time on the field (making them better, fresher), and will (I'd wager) involve alot more clutch throws at vital moments than we got under Zach.  Or Darnold.  Or Geno.  Or Sanchez.  Or McCown.  Etc.

We don't need a savior.  We need competence, and to keep building the overall team talent.

[Warfish]

5 minutes ago, peebag said:

lol, like we're going to beat out KC, Phila or SF.

We're not even close.

Washington beat Phila last year, just FYI.

[peebag]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Washington beat Phila last year, just FYI.

ergo Jets > Phila????

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, peebag said:

ergo Jets > Phila????

Ergo any given Sunday.

There was no QB available this offseason that would have changed your "lol, like we're going to beat out KC, Phila or SF." comment in re: who the Jets QB is.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to improve the position/production.  

[peebag]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Ergo any given Sunday.

There was no QB available this offseason that would have changed your "lol, like we're going to beat out KC, Phila or SF." comment in re: who the Jets QB is.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to improve the position/production.  

To the detriment of the rest of the team?

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, peebag said:

To the detriment of the rest of the team?

What detriment are you seeing at this point or projecting in our future?

Acquiring any new QB was going to come at a cost.  Unless you wanted to just go with Zach Wilson again in 2023.

[JetPotato]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

What detriment are you seeing at this point or projecting in our future?

Acquiring any new QB was going to come at a cost.  Unless you wanted to just go with Zach Wilson again in 2023.

peebag was in the "trade a 6 and conditional 7th for Mahomes and have Kansas City pay for 90% of the contract" camp

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, JetPotato said:

There's no future anywhere, anytime, without a franchise QB. How many decades of football do you have to watch for that to sink in?

Everyone understands the importance of a franchise QB 

the question is Rodgers still a franchise QB gets breezed right by, because it's uncomfortable to think about

people say the Jets just need an average QB to compete but at 60 mil per the juice isn't worth the squeeze 

 

[bitonti]

22 minutes ago, Warfish said:

In a down year, with a thumb injury, and a pretty weak roster of O-skill players overall.

what if it's not a down year, what if it's the start of a steep decline? this age is exactly when it happens 

22 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Am I expecting Rodgers to give us 4,200 and a 40/5 type season?  Nope.  Be cool if he did, but nope.

I expect something closer to 3,800 yards and 30/10.  A pretty meh year for Rodgers, career-wise.

you expect Rodgers' numbers to go up as he gets older - a Vinny T situation as it were?

it's theoretically possible but a lot to expect 

what are the odds he actually gets better as he gets older? 

[JetPotato]

Just now, bitonti said:

Everyone understands the importance of a franchise QB 

the question is Rodgers still a franchise QB gets breezed right by, because it's uncomfortable to think about

people say the Jets just need an average QB to compete but at 60 mil per the juice isn't worth the squeeze 

 

Not just talking about Rodgers now. What franchise QB are the Jets going to acquire.... ever? What else do you need to see that it's never going to happen? It's not like we have a young kid with development potential or a staff that has proven that they can effectively draft and develop one. So future, schmuture. We're not "mortgaging the future", because the Jets DON'T HAVE A FUTURE. Lightning in a bottle in the next year or two is all we can ever hope for. Recently, i's rare that we are even halfway decent enough to consider acquiring someone else's QB. Most years, we don't even have the supporting cast outside of the QB.

Beyond that all that, what available QB in 2023 has a higher probability of being very, very good this season and possibly next? Out of the group of Rodgers, Carr and Garropolo, Rodgers is clearly the best player.